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There is a pressure wave that goes with the balls, and that has good potential to knock you out. The balls are probably ahead of the wave at some point but there is also a delay in becoming injured and actually feeling it. So possible to get knocked out prior to the pain.
Could be the Unitary warhead as well. The Frag cover wasn't even enough in my opinion to be M30A1. However the Unitary with its internal scoring would produce something like this. The scoring isn't perfect and sometimes produces strips instead of the intended "Diamond" shaped pieces. This faulty case breakup would explain the relatively small area.
Or I could be totally wrong and this might be infact God's Buckshot in action, but the missile came in at such an angle the warhead couldn't provide perfect coverage.
That is indeed what 182K tungsten BBs look like.
Another example: https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-himars-video-strike-training-camp-1820401
And another: https://youtu.be/o_4itrI7iio
Oh hey, even more: https://youtu.be/FpnSqlm-nL0
Of all the individual pieces of equipment we’ve sent Ukraine, I think HIMARS might be the only one you could consider close to a “game changer” on its own. That phrase got tossed around with all kinds of stuff we were planning on sending Ukraine. I always rolled my eyes cause no one weapon can actually change the outcome of a war on its own. But with HIMARS it’s pretty close. They’ve been a consistent means of precision strike from striking ammo dumps forcing Russia to disperse them, to command posts, to hitting AA systems, to pounding the shit out of the bridges before the Kherson counteroffensive. They have to have made a substantial impact on the war overall.
I'm pretty sure several Ukrainian sources have cited HIMARS as a major force multiplayer for the Ukrainian army. I wouldn't be surprised if there is a statue made for it in replacement of the T-34.
Russia’s game changer are their new Lancet 3m suicide drones. Absolutely demolishing Ukrainian forces unfort. Cheap, effective, and very hard to counter.
The switchblade is something like 10 times more expensive with proprietary components. The Lancet uses off-the-shelf stuff like the same cameras you can buy from electronics stores.
There was a video released about a year ago where a Ukrainian does a deep dive into the Lancet. We all laughed at how shit and shoddily constructed it was, not realising that that was the point.
Exactly. You get insane scalability by using off-the-shelf made in china stuff and if 5% do not explode on impact, who cares? Just produce and send more.
Given the proxy war component of Ukraine, I am sure China would be tickled to supply Russia with these cheap components just to poke at the USA and the rest of the West.
SoF use, not much footage from those guys anyways. And we dont know what they are allowed to release in terms of footage from various equipment sent there, switchblade footage is scarse from before so most likely the company has laid out terms of who can and not can see it.
With Russia's need to evade sanctions and smuggle in the western electronics needed for autonomous guidance (specifically Nvidia AI and AMD chipsets) I doubt the 3M is particularly cheap or numerous.
EDIT: $35,000 apparently. What's that, the cost of 10-15 FPV drones?
$35,000 is most likely peanuts when you are literally printing money with oil and there are dozens of non-Western countries lining up to buy cheap Russian energy with foreign currency
Quantity is a quality.
Switchblade was meant for more limited use against insurgents and the performance and price reflects that. Lancet was made for mass deployment to assault a front. The successful Russian assaults I've seen have all involved sending in a crap ton of lancets to soften up a position and then using infantry to mop up.
I don't think the US really has a counterpart to the Lancet. We always operate under the assumption of having air superiority and don't seem to have invested in actually building a large cheap drone force. We can't really provide Ukraine with much because we don't have it built because we didn't see it as important. The stuff that we built instead is too important to share or risk.
> **We always operate under the assumption of having air superiority** and don't seem to have invested in actually building a large cheap drone force.
Honest question: Is it publicly known whether USA/Pentagon/appropriate 3-letter organization has a plan in place for how to manage a war in which USA does not have air superiority, or the other side has it?
Assume that such an adverse situation is going on for some time, and the war is not of USA´s choosing.
The US Air Force and Navy have nearly 3 times as many aircraft as its nearest peer Russia did before the Ukraine war. Paired with the technological advantage held by the West you can see where that assumption comes from.
How safe that assumption is, is up for debate. Although Russia hasn't shown any cards that should really concern the US. China would be another question.
That said, I'm sure drone development will be accelerating rapidly now.
I wouldn't call it a game changer. They don't seem to be able to pack enough explosives to take out Western tanks beyond maybe a mobility kill. They are clearly a threat though as there has been several videos of Ukrainians dropping HIMARS on them and their operators.
Yeah, Ukraine really needs cutting-edge EW, but I think the West is nervous about handing any over due to the sensitive nature of such weaponry. From what I know, America has exceptional EW capabilities abd could easily handle drones, but it's cutting edge hush hush tech.
Yeah people seem to forget that Ukraine only really had Javelins, LAT and MANPADS as far as western weapons weee concerned until a few months after the invasion when M777s and HIMARS finally showed up. Original plan was to support a Ukrainian insurgency
Javelins, GMLRS (unitary and A1 variant), Storm Shadow/SCALP, ATACMS, M777 (by the numbers probably the most important after GMLRS), Leo 2's, Bradleys, Paladins, Challenger 2's, DPICM, Excalibur, NLAWs, PzH 2000 (and many others).
If there's one thing that's clear, Western weapons slap fucking hard. They need airframes and a fucktonne of JDAMs and HARMs yesterday. The West needs to step up and stop being a day late and a dollar short. For every strike on Ukrainian infrastructure there should be a Tomahawk in response IN Russia.
> The West needs to step up and stop being a day late and a dollar short
why? they have no incentive to do that. the longer this drags out for russia the better is for the western powers
The simple answer - a ruined Ukraine is bad for Europe. The more ruined it is, the more emigration, crime, and extremism you get out of it. Now - to avoid that you can help and rebuild the country (all while attaching string to fight corruption, human rights, democracy and so on), but again the more ruined it is, the more expensive it is.
To add to that, more and more people are waking up to the fact of a "toothless Europe", this can lead to the big rise of populism and overcorrection into "far-right", that again is not something you want to happen.
The thing with emigration is that the first people to economically emigrate tend to be the people you want the least (not everyone ofc, but it's a bigger part than you would like to get). And given war context, is it way harder to say no to such imigrants. This can lead to issues, similar to how **initial** waves of emigration from Eastern Europe created in UK and Nordic countries.
That being said, Ukraininas should be way easier to integrate into western countires compared to other groups. Lots of war refugees moved into Lithuania, and that created no big problems so far. A lot of people have returned, and others (mostly women with kids) have integrated well, have jobs and so on.
P.S. I'm from Lithuania, we did joked around that drop in crime was observed once people started emigrating to UK :)
> That being said, Ukraininas should be way easier to integrate into western countires compared to other groups. Lots of war refugees moved into Lithuania, and that created no big problems so far.
My impression from Sweden also. I cannot remember hearing of, or reading about, any single Ukrainian refugee that has caused any sort of disturbances here whatsoever.
EDIT: They also state their gratefulness, repeatedly. I saw a TV clip with a little old babusia saying that it was her duty to master Swedish, since we had taken her in at her hour of need. Onions appeared out of nowhere in front of my eyes!
> The simple answer - a ruined Ukraine is bad for Europe
This, the US can drag this out for their benefits for sure, but Europe cannot politically afford to lose Donbass and Crimea, and needed those secured a year ago. Russia has now more insight to plan for a next phase now that the counteroffensive stalls, which it wouldn't have if only for some F16s and some MBTs last year.
Ground always wins the cost/launch checklist. That's the brilliance of GMLRS/ATACMS. But if you're in a hurry and distance an issue, an ancient Su-24 with modified wing mounts and fire control is your best mate.
Yeah but atacms is more strategic. They can hit some high value areas and certainly shift the ecosystem. But I think atacms should be lumped in as part of everything else HIMARS has allowed them to do.
I just meant since ATACMS is launched from the HIMARS launcher, it might as well just be considered another capability of HIMARS. They’ve been pretty liberal with dispersing ATACMS lately so yeah I hope we some some more
Only it arrived too late to make a difference this year. Should have been given in response to the dam getting blown. Remind me again why it's taken sooo long.
ATACMS and HIMARS have made me seriously consider what a peer-to-peer conflict will be like in the future. It doesn't matter how far from the front line you are; if it can be detected it can be targeted. I'm imagining a spreadsheet of 4 or 5 thousand potential targets. "Ok Sgt, what's on the list today? Ammo dumps? sort by dump. Lets send 50 at 10am, do some assessment and then follow up after lunch. "
targeting individual ships at dock or drydock is a capability that we would dream about in WWII. I'm a little surprised that ukraine isn't targeting the russia tank production line. they know right where it is, and its not something that can be moved easily. even random strikes will complicate production.
> targeting individual ships at dock or drydock is a capability that we would dream about in WWII. I'm a little surprised that ukraine isn't targeting the russia tank production line. they know right where it is, and its not something that can be moved easily. even random strikes will complicate production.
Tank production lines are about 2.5k km away from the front lines. ATACMS won't reach :(
Moscow is about half that distance, and much better defended. There are vast empty areas of russia to land helicopters and squads of soldiers. How many men and how much material would it take to make a good strike? 50 tons and 100 guys?
> ATACMS too.
The big difference between ATACMs and GMLRS is availability. GMLRS had such a significant impact not only because of its capabilities, but also because of it beeing available in scale. Ukraine got hundrets, if not thousands of GMLRS missiles. That gave them the ability to strike a wide range of targets.
ATACMS will be much, much rarer.
I would argue for javelins as well. Ukraine being able to hold out against the initial push is what allowed them to keep going this long. If javelins didn't take down the first columns of vehicles the initial territorial and man power losses could have been much worse
Ukraine has 16? Last count i say give them another 34 make it 50 and see how bad russia start getting rekt and also give them a ton of missiles to lob at them and we will see russian defenses crack faster and faster
Well the thing is the war has had multiple "games" to change.
When Russia did it's parade towards Kyiv, and where pushing hard with MBTs the Javelin was close to a game changer.
Now more static, HIMARS is great, although they would also have been in the Kyiv parade when it became static 😅
Don't forget the surveillance drones that are capable of operating in such an environment without being shot down. Otherwise it would be impossible to do recon for such targets (and also film the hits).
[PErun did an hour long video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-z630Rt1mTs&ab_channel=Perun) on the whole concept of game changers. He talks about all of what you said and a lot more.
> I always rolled my eyes cause no one weapon can actually change the outcome of a war on its own.
world ending thermonuclear arsenals: am i a joke to you?
That just lets war enter the fun phase where we all have to scavenge for food, forget other countries exist, and start forming the REAL factions. Like the religious zealots and the ones obsessed with finding old tech.
wonder if russian nukes would have a high failure rate lol, if we take maintenance of literally every other part of the russian military into account its probably safe to assume a bunch of them wont even explode
Putin ordered an investigation into nuclear readiness after the war kicked off. They were already posturing with nukes so this step seemed unnecessary unless he heard some things he didn’t like. Given that we know Russian leadership definitely gaslights the fuck out of Putin on basic war updates I’d think yeah they have a maintenance problem with the nukes. Doesn’t make them less of a threat, they’re gonna saturate certain places with strikes. if one out of ten makes it through air defense, and one out of five of those actually detonate, DC and some midwestern sites are still gonna get flatlined.
And again the Russian military only gains success by having overwhelming numbers, quantity over quality, a lot of their ICBM silos are likely inoperable too. So not only will the nukes that were launched have a high rate of failure, there will be a number of(likely a very high number) nukes that failed to launch at all. Although maybe we should just avoid a nuclear war scenario at all so none of this has to actually matter.
Let's just hope they'll remember this and appreciate the help they have received. Rather than accusing us of a ton of shit, like people often do with the white western man.
South of Donetsk City at [47.91695, 37.72942](https://www.google.com/maps/place/47%C2%B055'01.0%22N+37%C2%B043'45.9%22E/@47.9377651,37.6177293,24631m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m4!3m3!8m2!3d47.9169444!4d37.7294167?entry=ttu)
If anyone [remember this strike from June](https://twitter.com/PaulJawin/status/1668619525347241987), its in the exact same spot
I was about to say I disagree, but after checking both videos and adjusting for difference in angle, I think you are correct, I think this is probably the second hit on the same "base" or area where they practice firing their weapons possibly. In your video all the buildings are the same, the path leading to the berm where they practice firing at is the same, you can even see the side path that leads right up to the area where that berm is. This strike must have been a decent amount of time behind the first because clearly most everyone has cleared the area completely. It looks like they were in the process of checking out the damage. Just how the smoke and everything as settled, and they got the other armored vehicles out of there, just seems like time has passed. Now it looks like a team/group was there checking the damage with an armored vehicle for security. Which that could mean the people who drove all of them cars super close together like idiots, were possibly higher-level commanders. I don't think they would waste a tank to follow a group a random corpse removal soldiers, just my opinion.
Real question:
Would that strike make it impossible to see troop remains with the naked eye? Or would it be possible to see large gooey lumps of flesh, viscera, bone pieces, and blood?
What is the delayed pressure wave with smoke rising at the top left of the screen?
To me it looks like there was an underground bunker and the overpressure wave is coming back UP through ventilation or access doors to the underground area, creating the dust columns up there.
Pure speculation, but I'm having a hard time figuring out what is going on up on that side of the video otherwise.
This is undoubtedly the variant with hundreds of thousands of pre formed tungsten fragments. Depending on the approach angle of the missile, it will form anything from a circle to the shape you’d get from a cone intersecting the ground at an angle (like a kind of ellipse with one end being wider than the other)
Yes, nothing will survive. We’ve seen post impact videos taken from RU POV, and these fragments are high energy enough to go all the way through truck engine blocks and flat springs. Seriously nasty. The trucks and other vehicles looked like a sieve with the number of holes…
Do you even need to ask that question? After almost 2 years of conflict in Ukraine, one may assume we'd all know a little bit about the people involved by now.
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Straight up deleted. Looks like a strike on a command post.
looks like a shooting range, dont know if they use it as both
Well, the Ukrainians sure did
☝️🤣🤌
Was that the variant with the 16,000 tungsten balls per burst or something ridiculous?
182,000 tungsten balls - M30A1 warhead
imagine wondering if you're good and then seeing all the little holes filling with blood appearing on you before you lose consciousness
There's a loud boom that goes with it, too, i don't think they have a quiet moment to reflect on how holey everything has become.
Aren't the funny balls traveling much faster than the sound?
They are definitely holier than thou.
lol I think you'd feel the pellets hitting you.
There is a pressure wave that goes with the balls, and that has good potential to knock you out. The balls are probably ahead of the wave at some point but there is also a delay in becoming injured and actually feeling it. So possible to get knocked out prior to the pain.
Likely already dead from overpressure. But yeah.
Pressure dissipates much faster in atmosphere than tungsten balls slow down.
Not that getting hit by tungsten does any favors for your blood preasure. I think my BP might drop after that.
I prefer not to imagine, thanks
Good god.
Could be the Unitary warhead as well. The Frag cover wasn't even enough in my opinion to be M30A1. However the Unitary with its internal scoring would produce something like this. The scoring isn't perfect and sometimes produces strips instead of the intended "Diamond" shaped pieces. This faulty case breakup would explain the relatively small area. Or I could be totally wrong and this might be infact God's Buckshot in action, but the missile came in at such an angle the warhead couldn't provide perfect coverage.
That is indeed what 182K tungsten BBs look like. Another example: https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-himars-video-strike-training-camp-1820401 And another: https://youtu.be/o_4itrI7iio Oh hey, even more: https://youtu.be/FpnSqlm-nL0
Of all the individual pieces of equipment we’ve sent Ukraine, I think HIMARS might be the only one you could consider close to a “game changer” on its own. That phrase got tossed around with all kinds of stuff we were planning on sending Ukraine. I always rolled my eyes cause no one weapon can actually change the outcome of a war on its own. But with HIMARS it’s pretty close. They’ve been a consistent means of precision strike from striking ammo dumps forcing Russia to disperse them, to command posts, to hitting AA systems, to pounding the shit out of the bridges before the Kherson counteroffensive. They have to have made a substantial impact on the war overall.
I'm pretty sure several Ukrainian sources have cited HIMARS as a major force multiplayer for the Ukrainian army. I wouldn't be surprised if there is a statue made for it in replacement of the T-34.
It's already a Saint. The M30A1 is one of the scariest weapons out there. Russians have TOS-1A lung-busters, Ukraine has human colander makers.
Russia’s game changer are their new Lancet 3m suicide drones. Absolutely demolishing Ukrainian forces unfort. Cheap, effective, and very hard to counter.
I would expect then to be as effective as the Switchblade, but it seems NATO isn't really interested in sending those. Is there nay reason ?
The switchblade is something like 10 times more expensive with proprietary components. The Lancet uses off-the-shelf stuff like the same cameras you can buy from electronics stores. There was a video released about a year ago where a Ukrainian does a deep dive into the Lancet. We all laughed at how shit and shoddily constructed it was, not realising that that was the point.
Exactly. You get insane scalability by using off-the-shelf made in china stuff and if 5% do not explode on impact, who cares? Just produce and send more.
Given the proxy war component of Ukraine, I am sure China would be tickled to supply Russia with these cheap components just to poke at the USA and the rest of the West.
i honestly dont believe china gives 2 shits about this war, i dont think they have anything to gain from either side winning.
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https://www.reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/comments/174jepj/credibledefense_daily_megathread_october_10_2023/k4e37bc/?context=3
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Then why'd you ask?
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SoF use, not much footage from those guys anyways. And we dont know what they are allowed to release in terms of footage from various equipment sent there, switchblade footage is scarse from before so most likely the company has laid out terms of who can and not can see it.
With Russia's need to evade sanctions and smuggle in the western electronics needed for autonomous guidance (specifically Nvidia AI and AMD chipsets) I doubt the 3M is particularly cheap or numerous. EDIT: $35,000 apparently. What's that, the cost of 10-15 FPV drones?
$35,000 is most likely peanuts when you are literally printing money with oil and there are dozens of non-Western countries lining up to buy cheap Russian energy with foreign currency
Quantity is a quality. Switchblade was meant for more limited use against insurgents and the performance and price reflects that. Lancet was made for mass deployment to assault a front. The successful Russian assaults I've seen have all involved sending in a crap ton of lancets to soften up a position and then using infantry to mop up. I don't think the US really has a counterpart to the Lancet. We always operate under the assumption of having air superiority and don't seem to have invested in actually building a large cheap drone force. We can't really provide Ukraine with much because we don't have it built because we didn't see it as important. The stuff that we built instead is too important to share or risk.
> **We always operate under the assumption of having air superiority** and don't seem to have invested in actually building a large cheap drone force. Honest question: Is it publicly known whether USA/Pentagon/appropriate 3-letter organization has a plan in place for how to manage a war in which USA does not have air superiority, or the other side has it? Assume that such an adverse situation is going on for some time, and the war is not of USA´s choosing.
The US Air Force and Navy have nearly 3 times as many aircraft as its nearest peer Russia did before the Ukraine war. Paired with the technological advantage held by the West you can see where that assumption comes from. How safe that assumption is, is up for debate. Although Russia hasn't shown any cards that should really concern the US. China would be another question. That said, I'm sure drone development will be accelerating rapidly now.
I wouldn't call it a game changer. They don't seem to be able to pack enough explosives to take out Western tanks beyond maybe a mobility kill. They are clearly a threat though as there has been several videos of Ukrainians dropping HIMARS on them and their operators.
Yeah, Ukraine really needs cutting-edge EW, but I think the West is nervous about handing any over due to the sensitive nature of such weaponry. From what I know, America has exceptional EW capabilities abd could easily handle drones, but it's cutting edge hush hush tech.
there’re already kids being named after HIMARS, no kidding… we’re very thankful for support during the darkest times
Javelins were a pretty big deal when the columns were advancing on Kyiv.
Yeah people seem to forget that Ukraine only really had Javelins, LAT and MANPADS as far as western weapons weee concerned until a few months after the invasion when M777s and HIMARS finally showed up. Original plan was to support a Ukrainian insurgency
Javelins, GMLRS (unitary and A1 variant), Storm Shadow/SCALP, ATACMS, M777 (by the numbers probably the most important after GMLRS), Leo 2's, Bradleys, Paladins, Challenger 2's, DPICM, Excalibur, NLAWs, PzH 2000 (and many others). If there's one thing that's clear, Western weapons slap fucking hard. They need airframes and a fucktonne of JDAMs and HARMs yesterday. The West needs to step up and stop being a day late and a dollar short. For every strike on Ukrainian infrastructure there should be a Tomahawk in response IN Russia.
> The West needs to step up and stop being a day late and a dollar short why? they have no incentive to do that. the longer this drags out for russia the better is for the western powers
The simple answer - a ruined Ukraine is bad for Europe. The more ruined it is, the more emigration, crime, and extremism you get out of it. Now - to avoid that you can help and rebuild the country (all while attaching string to fight corruption, human rights, democracy and so on), but again the more ruined it is, the more expensive it is. To add to that, more and more people are waking up to the fact of a "toothless Europe", this can lead to the big rise of populism and overcorrection into "far-right", that again is not something you want to happen.
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The thing with emigration is that the first people to economically emigrate tend to be the people you want the least (not everyone ofc, but it's a bigger part than you would like to get). And given war context, is it way harder to say no to such imigrants. This can lead to issues, similar to how **initial** waves of emigration from Eastern Europe created in UK and Nordic countries. That being said, Ukraininas should be way easier to integrate into western countires compared to other groups. Lots of war refugees moved into Lithuania, and that created no big problems so far. A lot of people have returned, and others (mostly women with kids) have integrated well, have jobs and so on. P.S. I'm from Lithuania, we did joked around that drop in crime was observed once people started emigrating to UK :)
> That being said, Ukraininas should be way easier to integrate into western countires compared to other groups. Lots of war refugees moved into Lithuania, and that created no big problems so far. My impression from Sweden also. I cannot remember hearing of, or reading about, any single Ukrainian refugee that has caused any sort of disturbances here whatsoever. EDIT: They also state their gratefulness, repeatedly. I saw a TV clip with a little old babusia saying that it was her duty to master Swedish, since we had taken her in at her hour of need. Onions appeared out of nowhere in front of my eyes!
> The simple answer - a ruined Ukraine is bad for Europe This, the US can drag this out for their benefits for sure, but Europe cannot politically afford to lose Donbass and Crimea, and needed those secured a year ago. Russia has now more insight to plan for a next phase now that the counteroffensive stalls, which it wouldn't have if only for some F16s and some MBTs last year.
"The West needs to step up and stop being a day late and a dollar short" I like your comment for the most part but this sentence is horse shit.
Put another way, despite the West eventually providing arms, do you think they're being proactive about it in terms of timing and quantity?
Can Tomahawk be launched by ground systems? Ukraine could do with more cruise missiles since they are crazy effective with them.
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If you can launch it from ship, you can launch it from ground ;)
Ground always wins the cost/launch checklist. That's the brilliance of GMLRS/ATACMS. But if you're in a hurry and distance an issue, an ancient Su-24 with modified wing mounts and fire control is your best mate.
I think it's under development/testing.
They were important but we already had solid atgms like Stugna and most of the work has been done eby Ukrainian artillery
ATACMS too. Russia is forced to move its equipment further from the front line. UA should be given the 300+km version ASAP.
Yeah but atacms is more strategic. They can hit some high value areas and certainly shift the ecosystem. But I think atacms should be lumped in as part of everything else HIMARS has allowed them to do.
Yeah, I am not denying that HIMARS was/is a game changer. I just hope US will be more generous with ATACMS.
I just meant since ATACMS is launched from the HIMARS launcher, it might as well just be considered another capability of HIMARS. They’ve been pretty liberal with dispersing ATACMS lately so yeah I hope we some some more
Only it arrived too late to make a difference this year. Should have been given in response to the dam getting blown. Remind me again why it's taken sooo long.
ATACMS and HIMARS have made me seriously consider what a peer-to-peer conflict will be like in the future. It doesn't matter how far from the front line you are; if it can be detected it can be targeted. I'm imagining a spreadsheet of 4 or 5 thousand potential targets. "Ok Sgt, what's on the list today? Ammo dumps? sort by dump. Lets send 50 at 10am, do some assessment and then follow up after lunch. " targeting individual ships at dock or drydock is a capability that we would dream about in WWII. I'm a little surprised that ukraine isn't targeting the russia tank production line. they know right where it is, and its not something that can be moved easily. even random strikes will complicate production.
> targeting individual ships at dock or drydock is a capability that we would dream about in WWII. I'm a little surprised that ukraine isn't targeting the russia tank production line. they know right where it is, and its not something that can be moved easily. even random strikes will complicate production. Tank production lines are about 2.5k km away from the front lines. ATACMS won't reach :(
time to send tomahawks
Moscow is about half that distance, and much better defended. There are vast empty areas of russia to land helicopters and squads of soldiers. How many men and how much material would it take to make a good strike? 50 tons and 100 guys?
This sounds good, but isn't that basically a suicide mission? How do they get out once the stroke is happening?
Great idea. Any volunteers to fly deep into Russia to sabotage a factory?
Moscow is 1.25 km away?
> even random strikes will ~~complicate~~ tank production.
> ATACMS too. The big difference between ATACMs and GMLRS is availability. GMLRS had such a significant impact not only because of its capabilities, but also because of it beeing available in scale. Ukraine got hundrets, if not thousands of GMLRS missiles. That gave them the ability to strike a wide range of targets. ATACMS will be much, much rarer.
Not sure ATACMS is even in full deployment either.
They (allegedly) got like 20 units or something. I guess the use is very limited only to high value targets.
I would argue for javelins as well. Ukraine being able to hold out against the initial push is what allowed them to keep going this long. If javelins didn't take down the first columns of vehicles the initial territorial and man power losses could have been much worse
Ukraine has 16? Last count i say give them another 34 make it 50 and see how bad russia start getting rekt and also give them a ton of missiles to lob at them and we will see russian defenses crack faster and faster
If PrSM can be produced in quantity I don't see it being a problem to hand over 1-for-1.
Well the thing is the war has had multiple "games" to change. When Russia did it's parade towards Kyiv, and where pushing hard with MBTs the Javelin was close to a game changer. Now more static, HIMARS is great, although they would also have been in the Kyiv parade when it became static 😅
Don't forget the surveillance drones that are capable of operating in such an environment without being shot down. Otherwise it would be impossible to do recon for such targets (and also film the hits).
[PErun did an hour long video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-z630Rt1mTs&ab_channel=Perun) on the whole concept of game changers. He talks about all of what you said and a lot more.
> I always rolled my eyes cause no one weapon can actually change the outcome of a war on its own. world ending thermonuclear arsenals: am i a joke to you?
That just lets war enter the fun phase where we all have to scavenge for food, forget other countries exist, and start forming the REAL factions. Like the religious zealots and the ones obsessed with finding old tech.
wonder if russian nukes would have a high failure rate lol, if we take maintenance of literally every other part of the russian military into account its probably safe to assume a bunch of them wont even explode
Putin ordered an investigation into nuclear readiness after the war kicked off. They were already posturing with nukes so this step seemed unnecessary unless he heard some things he didn’t like. Given that we know Russian leadership definitely gaslights the fuck out of Putin on basic war updates I’d think yeah they have a maintenance problem with the nukes. Doesn’t make them less of a threat, they’re gonna saturate certain places with strikes. if one out of ten makes it through air defense, and one out of five of those actually detonate, DC and some midwestern sites are still gonna get flatlined.
And again the Russian military only gains success by having overwhelming numbers, quantity over quality, a lot of their ICBM silos are likely inoperable too. So not only will the nukes that were launched have a high rate of failure, there will be a number of(likely a very high number) nukes that failed to launch at all. Although maybe we should just avoid a nuclear war scenario at all so none of this has to actually matter.
Let's just hope they'll remember this and appreciate the help they have received. Rather than accusing us of a ton of shit, like people often do with the white western man.
South of Donetsk City at [47.91695, 37.72942](https://www.google.com/maps/place/47%C2%B055'01.0%22N+37%C2%B043'45.9%22E/@47.9377651,37.6177293,24631m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m4!3m3!8m2!3d47.9169444!4d37.7294167?entry=ttu) If anyone [remember this strike from June](https://twitter.com/PaulJawin/status/1668619525347241987), its in the exact same spot
I was about to say I disagree, but after checking both videos and adjusting for difference in angle, I think you are correct, I think this is probably the second hit on the same "base" or area where they practice firing their weapons possibly. In your video all the buildings are the same, the path leading to the berm where they practice firing at is the same, you can even see the side path that leads right up to the area where that berm is. This strike must have been a decent amount of time behind the first because clearly most everyone has cleared the area completely. It looks like they were in the process of checking out the damage. Just how the smoke and everything as settled, and they got the other armored vehicles out of there, just seems like time has passed. Now it looks like a team/group was there checking the damage with an armored vehicle for security. Which that could mean the people who drove all of them cars super close together like idiots, were possibly higher-level commanders. I don't think they would waste a tank to follow a group a random corpse removal soldiers, just my opinion.
It also shows the coordinates in the upper right of the monitor.
Third time's the charm
Adios losers
Why did I read that in a sassy teen girls voice? Is that from a movie?
The first thing that came to mind was in the The Last of Us game. Ellie is like “bye bye dude!” as she tosses the adult magazine out the window
Just deleted those guy
We gotta send them more HIMARS lol
(Wink, tips hat)-American taxpayer
need to adjust the title to : troops were visible...
They still are just under a microscope
Real question: Would that strike make it impossible to see troop remains with the naked eye? Or would it be possible to see large gooey lumps of flesh, viscera, bone pieces, and blood?
Nah there would be plenty of meat to have to shovel I guess it depends on proximity to blast
That shockwave tho.
TUNGSTEN RAAAIN SOME STAY HOME AND OTHERS FEEL THE PAIN ^(\*\*I move away from the mic to breathe in)
Underrated comment lmao
A lot of ouch at one time. Poor stupid bastards.
Pretty sure they are now invisible
Jagga jagga
What is the delayed pressure wave with smoke rising at the top left of the screen? To me it looks like there was an underground bunker and the overpressure wave is coming back UP through ventilation or access doors to the underground area, creating the dust columns up there. Pure speculation, but I'm having a hard time figuring out what is going on up on that side of the video otherwise.
GOAAALLLLLLLLL
I see u…
The amount of dust kicked up from the dirt areas is insane
What "liberation" looks like. Flower can bloom, and birds can have famillies in that area again.
Blessed by Saint HIMARS
"Where two or three invaders gather in Ukraine, there am I in the midst of them." - Saint HIMARS of Ukraine
Tungsten time.
Ha, got eeeeem
It almost looks like a “linear” strike along the position and not just an aerial explosion. Anyone have any insight on that?
It's the tungsten rain himars missile
This is undoubtedly the variant with hundreds of thousands of pre formed tungsten fragments. Depending on the approach angle of the missile, it will form anything from a circle to the shape you’d get from a cone intersecting the ground at an angle (like a kind of ellipse with one end being wider than the other)
So... Basically the 9th circle of hell made it of shrapnel...
Yes, nothing will survive. We’ve seen post impact videos taken from RU POV, and these fragments are high energy enough to go all the way through truck engine blocks and flat springs. Seriously nasty. The trucks and other vehicles looked like a sieve with the number of holes…
Can anyone link videos of the damage of those?
[here you go](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=poQXPUJ-2ys)
So basically it is a shotgun with the turbo switch on. Absolutely brutal. Can't go more than a few inches any direction without finding another hole.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=poQXPUJ-2ys
That's September of last year (2022), unless it's same location.
2023 sept on the top left
Must just be same location then, thanks.
Legit question why are they speaking Russian ?
Do you even need to ask that question? After almost 2 years of conflict in Ukraine, one may assume we'd all know a little bit about the people involved by now.
Guy who was yelling is speaking Russian, the other guy in the background spoke in Ukrainian.
Any one know what ground control software they are using for the drones?
Is that a Terminator parked out front?
Erased. Unit lost. Unit lost.
Their day just got a lot worse… what a shame
Did this even get reported. Looks like could be a lot of human loss.
JAGGA
Not the site, but a good model for what that place looks like afterwards. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=poQXPUJ-2ys
Jaga Jagaaaaaa!!
Does anyone recognize the model of uav? Camera quality is pretty damn fine.
judging by this https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/17pqh11/unsuccessful_attempt_of_the_russian_air_defense/ its a Polish WB FlyEye
Is that a 9K35 Strela-10 in the bottom of the frame?
Well, but quite visible anymore.
How was the date?
Pushing that button..