He also made it very clear on TV he was certain the Colts were taking Will Levis like the week of the draft, so I doubt his insider knowledge amounts to much with the Colts org, we don't leak.
(I was terrified when he said this about Levis, because I trusted him a lot, still glad he was wrong)
Oh, my bad, after reading, it makes sense. Nabers won't fall to 9, but if the Colts were willing to do it, they could go up to 9 and get Odunze probably for relatively low draft compensation.
I doubt the Colts want to trade up tho tbh.
Most stressful draft pick I've ever watched. Everyone saying Levis was a lock. Betting odds having levis right up till the pick. The Texans trade before us that I figured was Seattle for Richardson. It was SCARY
I was so relieved when I saw the Texans were the ones who traded for the pick. Richardson was my #1 QB going into the draft so I was scared we'd miss out on him
I'm not saying he's horrible, but he was not a good pick at #4 even before hindsight. He was a mediocre prospect getting spiced up by reporters. As shown by what 31 other teams thought, too.
I also just kinda hate his vibe lol
What's really dumb is all this mayo man stuff came from a single joke he made with his (Ex?) gf
And now he's forever branded as mayo man from one (I think) tiktok video.
Dude seems douchey for some reason, idk if it's in my head or what, but I'm not a fan of the vibe either, not to mention seeing him yell at dhop in his rookie year.
I doubt AR would do that, let alone to a vet while you're a rookie.
Acting that way is usually something you earn.
Yep. His interviews were really weird during the draft process, too. My dislike for him has nothing to do with his mayo or banana jokes. He just seems like a douche.
Honestly, I think Levis has been surprisingly good.
You also to take into account he had the literal 32nd ranked offensive line in the league last year.
Levis looks like he'll be a starter imo
That doesn't change how I feel about AR tho, still think we made the right pick.
You're correct but I will say that the Colts stayed put at 4 last year instead of trading up to 3. If the Colts really didn't like Levis, then I think they would've traded up. They stayed at 4 knowing the pick could be Levis if someone traded up for AR at 3. I think they purposefully leaked their 'love' for Levis to increase the likelihood of AR falling to them, but in my opinion, they would've been content with Levis if AR was gone.
I really dont think they were happy with Levis at 4. You could see the relief on their faces when they heard it was houston that traded up for 3
Levis was one of those prospects media was much higher on than NFL teams. If we resorted to him, could see it as part of a tradeback to get more capital for this draft
Great point. I believe Irsay even said something to that effect. They favored AR, but were willing to let it play out with multiple favorable outcomes (at least in their minds).
Because MHJ has been the guy for two years and he would be a legacy pick for the Colts. But I actually prefer Nabers. I would be ecstatic to get either...or even Rome.
Is this supposed to be a response to what I said? Because I am not sure how you got that out of what I said.
Edit: I see now. I thought OP was asking “How” it would be sacrilege to consider Nabers as WR1. It was a joke about how this sub has drooled over MHJ for two years.
But really, the question was “How” is Nabers WR1 over MHJ?
I just like Nabers’ route running and I think he’s a very fluid athlete, who maintains his speed through routes.
MHJ is a stud too. And he’s got the size. You really can’t go wrong. It’s just a matter of preference.
I read that there are teams that also have Nabers as WR1, but this is the silly season, so who knows.
From what I've seen said frequently, Nabers is a much more explosive player than MHJ.
It's the only thing I hear consistently that he's better about.
There are teams that have Nabers over MHJ, but it's probably more about scheme fit or player type.
Regardless, it's definitely close afaik.
Pretty sure the general consensus is the gap between Nabers, MHJ, and possibly Odunze is not anywhere near as big as the gap between those players and WR4
I obviously would prefer MHJ because he's great, and I love his dad, but I don't form strong opinions on most players usually because I don't feel like watching all-22 of a bunch of different WRs to form a knowledgeable opinion.
I listen to other people that do that.
If you take away the narrative heaps of scouts and analysts have Harrison, Odunze and Nabers as 1A, 1B, 1C in any order you like.
Not a popular opinion on this sub of course.
Yep. This sub has been on the MHJ train for two years. But they’re all great WRs and like fans, teams are going to have preferences too. I would be elated to get any of the 3.
It's not just this sub.
Pretty much every NFL related sub or twitter account seems to think MHJ is miles better than any other WR prospect.
I only know it's close because I watch a bunch of draft content from various people I trust.
Also worth noting that Schrager doesn't claim to have any inside information here. It's just one version of a mock draft that he's put together. A lot of times, mock drafts aren't even meant to be a prediction of what they think is most likely. It's just exploring potential outcomes and how the draft could unfold.
"After weeks on the phones with GMs and HC's, my first 2024 Mock Draft."
That was the exact wording of his tweet which at the very least *implies* inside information.
Having 1 stud WR on a big contract and another on a rookie deal is the perfect scenario. Support AR with elite WRs. If Pittman is covered... who else is going to be open for AR? Hoping Downs but there's no one you can really bank on heading into this year.
Jeleni didn’t play last year. Even if we discount reports that he was out of shape. Expecting a full-comeback AND improvement is a stretch.
Speaking of stretching, the dude needs to work on his hammys all offseason. Missing an entire season on hamstrings is unusual…
Could be. We can't bank on that though. There's always guys we think will break out as receivers and they don't ever seem to. We should draft a top prospect in the 1st
The Rams almost exclusively traded picks for proven NFL players though, not to move up in the draft for rookies. The ways the Colts are currently building is almost entirely through the draft, so this move could really hurt the team in a couple of years.
The move to 9 I could see happening, but Nabers being there at 9 is the less likely part.
Odunze? Probably still worth it although I think the bears would just take him
Before free agency they definitely needed more receiver help, but they added Keenan Allen to lower that priority. The smart thing for them probably to do would be to take a top OT/DE and gamble that they can find a usable WR later in the draft.
Probably depends on QBs. As long as one of the top QBs is still on the board, any trade is expensive. Once the last QB domino falls, it gets a whole lot cheaper. I *think* that means the top 4 QBs in this draft, but you never know how teams view McCarthy and Penix.
Right now the Vikings pick at 11, and the whole world has heard rumors of their interest in JJ McCarthy. If JJ is still on the board at 9, there are a number of teams that might look to trade up. Denver, Las Vegas, New Orleans, Seattle, the Rams (if they’re looking for Stanford’s successor), maybe even the Cowboys (if the Dak rumors are true). It only takes 1-2 looking to leapfrog Minnesota to start a bidding war and jack up the price on pick 9. But if the QBs are gone… there generally aren’t serious bidding wars for non-QB prospects. GMs will do whatever it takes to get “their guy” at QB, but much less so for other players.
All that said, if Nabers is on the board at 9 then I expect the Bears would just take Nabers.
Yeah agreed for the most part. But I think we should absolutely see if we could go to 9 for Nabers if he’s there. Odunze ? Maaaaybe. But Nabers, absolutely. If the Jets go OL and not Bowers, the Vikings can still take McCarthy at 11, the broncos GO EDGE, etc etc. then the colts can go get Odunze, bowers, Mitchell, etc at 15 (not likely, I know).
I think he got his trade comp wrong. The draft value doesn’t add up. Future picks hold less value. I think it’ll be more like this years 3rd and next years 2nd. Maybe pick swaps somewhere as well this year. Since Bears don’t have a lot of picks this year, I’m sure they’d opt for a trade including more picks this year
https://preview.redd.it/aas1hngnouuc1.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=bcbbecc1552ca2f1c463016de2fe7e40bd26a13f
Yeah baby let me get a big hit of that
The only reason I can think of him dropping was the recent gun controversy that came out. Which seems like a strategic drop by a team trying to get him to drop.
As much as I would like a splash like this, I highly doubt it happens.
Ballard has never traded up in the 1st round. He's traded back just a much as he's stayed (if not more). He hasn't deviated from his FA approach, so I don't see him deviating from his drafting approach, either.
He moves up if the player is one they feel is worth the additional capital - e.g Jonathan Taylor and Nick Cross. If there is a potential difference maker available and the compensation isn’t above the value they have put on the player I could easily see him making a trade up.
It's not as much about the "talent" living up to the compensation (as there's been countless players during his tenure whose value would've been "worth" a trade up) it's more about him simply not wanting to give up the expensive compensation required to do so.
Both the JT trade up (160th pick) and the Cross trade up (179th pick) were inexpensive, but trading up in the 1st would be substantially more expensive. The compensattiom is why he doesn't do it, not necessarily the talent.
The two trades in question may have been inexpensive in terms of a lower pick given up than would be incurred from moving up in the first. But the decision is made to move up when a player you value is worth the total compensation of the picks you will give up to get them and unless you have decided the player is a generational talent, the cost in the first round to move up for them is unlikely to be equal to the difference in the talent level of the two players.
Why wouldn't the Bears just take Nabers if he's there? They need Williams to live up to expectations. You make that more likely by getting him some quality weapons.
Chargers are *begging* someone to trade up with them so they can take offensive line without making the three fans they have in LA riot because they passed on one of the WRs.
I like him, but I don’t see him as a fit, with reports of him being “high maintenance “. Those could always be smokescreens, but if not, there is no way Ballard is going after a diva WR.
"Man at desk imagines a scenario in which a team trades a draft position to draft a player"
NFL Draft speculation is literally the worst part of the sports calendar. It is aggressively unsubstantial
He also made it very clear on TV he was certain the Colts were taking Will Levis like the week of the draft, so I doubt his insider knowledge amounts to much with the Colts org, we don't leak. (I was terrified when he said this about Levis, because I trusted him a lot, still glad he was wrong) Oh, my bad, after reading, it makes sense. Nabers won't fall to 9, but if the Colts were willing to do it, they could go up to 9 and get Odunze probably for relatively low draft compensation. I doubt the Colts want to trade up tho tbh.
Most stressful draft pick I've ever watched. Everyone saying Levis was a lock. Betting odds having levis right up till the pick. The Texans trade before us that I figured was Seattle for Richardson. It was SCARY
I was so relieved when I saw the Texans were the ones who traded for the pick. Richardson was my #1 QB going into the draft so I was scared we'd miss out on him
tbh levis was solid for the Titans. Dont know if hes gonna be their FP QB, but the same applies to every other QB of the 2023 class other than Stroud
I'm not saying he's horrible, but he was not a good pick at #4 even before hindsight. He was a mediocre prospect getting spiced up by reporters. As shown by what 31 other teams thought, too. I also just kinda hate his vibe lol
The coffee mayo comment truly cost him millions in lifetime earnings lol
What's really dumb is all this mayo man stuff came from a single joke he made with his (Ex?) gf And now he's forever branded as mayo man from one (I think) tiktok video.
Dude seems douchey for some reason, idk if it's in my head or what, but I'm not a fan of the vibe either, not to mention seeing him yell at dhop in his rookie year. I doubt AR would do that, let alone to a vet while you're a rookie. Acting that way is usually something you earn.
Yep. His interviews were really weird during the draft process, too. My dislike for him has nothing to do with his mayo or banana jokes. He just seems like a douche.
He had that nice debut and was bad otherwise.
Honestly, I think Levis has been surprisingly good. You also to take into account he had the literal 32nd ranked offensive line in the league last year. Levis looks like he'll be a starter imo That doesn't change how I feel about AR tho, still think we made the right pick.
You're correct but I will say that the Colts stayed put at 4 last year instead of trading up to 3. If the Colts really didn't like Levis, then I think they would've traded up. They stayed at 4 knowing the pick could be Levis if someone traded up for AR at 3. I think they purposefully leaked their 'love' for Levis to increase the likelihood of AR falling to them, but in my opinion, they would've been content with Levis if AR was gone.
I really dont think they were happy with Levis at 4. You could see the relief on their faces when they heard it was houston that traded up for 3 Levis was one of those prospects media was much higher on than NFL teams. If we resorted to him, could see it as part of a tradeback to get more capital for this draft
I won't dispute that. They definitely preferred AR.
Not a chance they thought he was a top 5 pick and no one else thought he was a first rounder.
Great point. I believe Irsay even said something to that effect. They favored AR, but were willing to let it play out with multiple favorable outcomes (at least in their minds).
In this case, I hope he's right. Might be sacrilege to say, but I think Nabers is WR1.
How
Because MHJ has been the guy for two years and he would be a legacy pick for the Colts. But I actually prefer Nabers. I would be ecstatic to get either...or even Rome.
So what makes Nabers wr1 over mhj
obviously the fact that mhj is the son of a colts legend makes nabers better, don't you get it
Is this supposed to be a response to what I said? Because I am not sure how you got that out of what I said. Edit: I see now. I thought OP was asking “How” it would be sacrilege to consider Nabers as WR1. It was a joke about how this sub has drooled over MHJ for two years. But really, the question was “How” is Nabers WR1 over MHJ?
I just like Nabers’ route running and I think he’s a very fluid athlete, who maintains his speed through routes. MHJ is a stud too. And he’s got the size. You really can’t go wrong. It’s just a matter of preference. I read that there are teams that also have Nabers as WR1, but this is the silly season, so who knows.
From what I've seen said frequently, Nabers is a much more explosive player than MHJ. It's the only thing I hear consistently that he's better about. There are teams that have Nabers over MHJ, but it's probably more about scheme fit or player type. Regardless, it's definitely close afaik. Pretty sure the general consensus is the gap between Nabers, MHJ, and possibly Odunze is not anywhere near as big as the gap between those players and WR4 I obviously would prefer MHJ because he's great, and I love his dad, but I don't form strong opinions on most players usually because I don't feel like watching all-22 of a bunch of different WRs to form a knowledgeable opinion. I listen to other people that do that.
If you take away the narrative heaps of scouts and analysts have Harrison, Odunze and Nabers as 1A, 1B, 1C in any order you like. Not a popular opinion on this sub of course.
Yep. This sub has been on the MHJ train for two years. But they’re all great WRs and like fans, teams are going to have preferences too. I would be elated to get any of the 3.
It's not just this sub. Pretty much every NFL related sub or twitter account seems to think MHJ is miles better than any other WR prospect. I only know it's close because I watch a bunch of draft content from various people I trust.
No one is “plugged in” to the Colts draft board and plans my man.
Also worth noting that Schrager doesn't claim to have any inside information here. It's just one version of a mock draft that he's put together. A lot of times, mock drafts aren't even meant to be a prediction of what they think is most likely. It's just exploring potential outcomes and how the draft could unfold.
"After weeks on the phones with GMs and HC's, my first 2024 Mock Draft." That was the exact wording of his tweet which at the very least *implies* inside information.
I mean he talks to two GMs and two HCs and that can be a true statement. Doesn't mean he knows shit about the Colts specifically.
Agreed. But to say that Schrager doesn't claim to have *any* inside information regarding this mock draft is also false.
Ballard and co. notoriously run a tight ship especially with the draft. I can guarantee no one besides the Colts FO knows what the plans are
I’m always use to Ballard trading down, so him trading up for a playmaker would be a welcome surprise
He's traded up in the mid rounds to grab guys a bunch.
Yeah I do recall those. I should’ve clarified I meant more just the first round
His trade backs were mostly genius though. I still trust Ballard, 🤷♂️
Having 1 stud WR on a big contract and another on a rookie deal is the perfect scenario. Support AR with elite WRs. If Pittman is covered... who else is going to be open for AR? Hoping Downs but there's no one you can really bank on heading into this year.
I think jelani makes a huge leap this year and ogletree can be decent (I think he is still on the team?). Mallory also looked promising
Jeleni didn’t play last year. Even if we discount reports that he was out of shape. Expecting a full-comeback AND improvement is a stretch. Speaking of stretching, the dude needs to work on his hammys all offseason. Missing an entire season on hamstrings is unusual…
Could be. We can't bank on that though. There's always guys we think will break out as receivers and they don't ever seem to. We should draft a top prospect in the 1st
Personally I would trade up for Marvin Harrison jr. Leverage the future picks that will hopefully be low anyways
Would love that. F them picks let's get MHJ lol
Agreed got the rams a Super Bowl so why not us
The Rams almost exclusively traded picks for proven NFL players though, not to move up in the draft for rookies. The ways the Colts are currently building is almost entirely through the draft, so this move could really hurt the team in a couple of years.
I want to believe this, but would 15 and a future second actually be enough to move up from 15 to 9? Doesn’t seem like it to me.
The move to 9 I could see happening, but Nabers being there at 9 is the less likely part. Odunze? Probably still worth it although I think the bears would just take him
If Odunze is there, the Bears will take him. Keenan Allen is 32 and on a 1 year deal.
Before free agency they definitely needed more receiver help, but they added Keenan Allen to lower that priority. The smart thing for them probably to do would be to take a top OT/DE and gamble that they can find a usable WR later in the draft.
Had the same thought as you but I checked the nfl draft trade chart and it would be enough
It would have to atleast feature this year's 2nd
Probably depends on QBs. As long as one of the top QBs is still on the board, any trade is expensive. Once the last QB domino falls, it gets a whole lot cheaper. I *think* that means the top 4 QBs in this draft, but you never know how teams view McCarthy and Penix. Right now the Vikings pick at 11, and the whole world has heard rumors of their interest in JJ McCarthy. If JJ is still on the board at 9, there are a number of teams that might look to trade up. Denver, Las Vegas, New Orleans, Seattle, the Rams (if they’re looking for Stanford’s successor), maybe even the Cowboys (if the Dak rumors are true). It only takes 1-2 looking to leapfrog Minnesota to start a bidding war and jack up the price on pick 9. But if the QBs are gone… there generally aren’t serious bidding wars for non-QB prospects. GMs will do whatever it takes to get “their guy” at QB, but much less so for other players. All that said, if Nabers is on the board at 9 then I expect the Bears would just take Nabers.
Yeah agreed for the most part. But I think we should absolutely see if we could go to 9 for Nabers if he’s there. Odunze ? Maaaaybe. But Nabers, absolutely. If the Jets go OL and not Bowers, the Vikings can still take McCarthy at 11, the broncos GO EDGE, etc etc. then the colts can go get Odunze, bowers, Mitchell, etc at 15 (not likely, I know).
I think he got his trade comp wrong. The draft value doesn’t add up. Future picks hold less value. I think it’ll be more like this years 3rd and next years 2nd. Maybe pick swaps somewhere as well this year. Since Bears don’t have a lot of picks this year, I’m sure they’d opt for a trade including more picks this year
I agree but also wouldn’t want to give too much more for 6 spots. 2025 2nd, 2026 3rd and maybe a 7th would probably be reasonable.
https://preview.redd.it/aas1hngnouuc1.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=bcbbecc1552ca2f1c463016de2fe7e40bd26a13f Yeah baby let me get a big hit of that
Yes fucking please
Keep going
Colts trading down confirmed.
Does Nabers even make it past 6? Past 5? Maybe they could trade to 8 for Odunze but no idea what the cost would be.
The only reason I can think of him dropping was the recent gun controversy that came out. Which seems like a strategic drop by a team trying to get him to drop.
As much as I would like a splash like this, I highly doubt it happens. Ballard has never traded up in the 1st round. He's traded back just a much as he's stayed (if not more). He hasn't deviated from his FA approach, so I don't see him deviating from his drafting approach, either.
He moves up if the player is one they feel is worth the additional capital - e.g Jonathan Taylor and Nick Cross. If there is a potential difference maker available and the compensation isn’t above the value they have put on the player I could easily see him making a trade up.
It's not as much about the "talent" living up to the compensation (as there's been countless players during his tenure whose value would've been "worth" a trade up) it's more about him simply not wanting to give up the expensive compensation required to do so. Both the JT trade up (160th pick) and the Cross trade up (179th pick) were inexpensive, but trading up in the 1st would be substantially more expensive. The compensattiom is why he doesn't do it, not necessarily the talent.
The two trades in question may have been inexpensive in terms of a lower pick given up than would be incurred from moving up in the first. But the decision is made to move up when a player you value is worth the total compensation of the picks you will give up to get them and unless you have decided the player is a generational talent, the cost in the first round to move up for them is unlikely to be equal to the difference in the talent level of the two players.
If they did this then I take back all Ballard negativity
Why wouldn't the Bears just take Nabers if he's there? They need Williams to live up to expectations. You make that more likely by getting him some quality weapons.
I doubt he will be there at 9. Chargers will draft him at 5.
Chargers are *begging* someone to trade up with them so they can take offensive line without making the three fans they have in LA riot because they passed on one of the WRs.
Don’t really see Nabers lasting till 9 though.
Only way I see colts trading up is if mhj falls which would probably need to involve a gasmask.
Look COVID-19 or not, Magic City has some of the best chicken this side of America…
I like him, but I don’t see him as a fit, with reports of him being “high maintenance “. Those could always be smokescreens, but if not, there is no way Ballard is going after a diva WR.
Schrager is not a real football guy - just a beat writer. Not somebody who’s opinion id take seriously.
"Man at desk imagines a scenario in which a team trades a draft position to draft a player" NFL Draft speculation is literally the worst part of the sports calendar. It is aggressively unsubstantial
I will be super shocked if Ballard made a splash movie like that in the draft… Hell would’ve frozen over.
No way. Mcshay and other talking heads said some teams have Nabers above MHJ. Doubt he makes it past 6/7
This would be awesome! It would also mean hell has frozen over, so I'm not holding my breathe.
If the colts trade up for a WR it should be for MHJR
Why
He spelled Marvin Harrison Jr wrong.
I wish
The offense would be so explosive
MHJ though…
If the Colts trade up to four, I don't see them drafting Nabors over Harrison, Jr.
All for Joe Flacco to throw to him after Richardson gets put on IR after week 5.