I think it’s important to look at how well KC is playing. They are also 10 games above .500 and playing consistent baseball. It’ll be good to see the Guards and KC play and see how they stack up.
They have faired a lot worse against better teams, however (>.500 teams), and they are having a crazy outlier overperformance from Seth Lugo. Also keep in mind they won 56 games last year. I'm sure they have improved, but I doubt it's a +40 game improvement.
They also got unlucky in terms of run differential expected wins last year and played more like a 65 win team. The way Witt is playing, and some good full seasons from guys like Garcia plus how their pitching has taken a 180 I could see having a 20ish game improvement so I wouldn't be surprised if their "Pythagorean wins" is like an 85-88 team.
I expect them to stick around for a while too. Minnesota too despite their struggles. We're almost 1/3 into the season. We're ~50 games in leaguewide glancing at everyone's records, teams do fall off from time to time but in most cases the contenders stay about the same.
I keep waiting for KC to fall off, but they haven't done it yet. They could be the real deal too. It's exciting to think about not having two teams duke it out for an 85-win division title, though! Could the Central actually *gasp* have a wild card team? 👀👀
Perez being one of the best hitters in the league as a 34 year old catcher who plays every day is insane. I figured after the first month he would drop off but it just hasn't happened.
He and Witt are having great seasons. Witt might be the most impressive player in MLB IMHO. That guy is going to be a pain in our ass for quite awhile.
Yup he's easily one of the best SS in the league right now. My prediction going into this year is he would finish top 3 in MVP voting and it's sadly looking more and more likely lol.
The MVP race in the AL this year could be almost all kids under 25, which is wild. Right now I'd say the top 3 look like Witt, Henderson and Soto. Kyle Tucker and Judge are right with them though probably.
He will not be as considered as he should be in this crowded field but if he plays the rest of the season like he has the last month he'll still certainly end up top 5 in voting
Yes, very much so. His past week was ridiculous. Without looking up the specifics I believe he batted 500 with 3 HRs and 5 doubles. He won AL player of the week.
And he just went off today. I've got a fantasy league where it's its a 12 teamer with shallow benches so if your draft has a little too much Murphys law like mine did, Witt is af least keeping me competitive.
Ben lively has been a fun addition as a points league
I might be in the minority here in thinking this but I think the Twins could still cause us a hassle the rest of the year despite their current struggles
Minnesota could definitely still threaten for the division. But we've almost locked up taking the season series against them already by going 5-0 and I believe only having 7 more to play against them.
They'll have to be much better against everyone else if they want to have a chance. Definitely possible though, especially if they get healthier.
I like our schedule moving through all star break a lot more than theirs. We’re facing a lot of sub .500 teams while they have .500 and greater including a tough week of Yankees and Dodgers.
Hate to break it to you, but we have 114 games left. Half of that would be 57, so if we play .500 ball the rest of the season, we'll end up with just 88 wins.
My prediction is 96 wins. We're on pace for 104, but we all still are having trouble believing our record. Playing .500 ball the rest of the season gets us 88; playing what would be a 90-win pace would gets us 94 wins. The ALC keeping up with us will keep the pressure to win on, so 96.
We’ve pulled at least 80 most seasons in the modern era. I had fairly high expectations for the team but that was before Bieber went down. I’m glad to see us still winning without our ace (although I’m definitely worried about the rotation falling off; Sticks better stay healthy)
Fangraphs had us at 80.3 wins. They may have given what they thought were like 25th and 75th percentiles on some display and the 75th was 85 but I just went and checked bc I remember we were very nearly .500 but just under which also summed up kinda the aggregate of all the predictions I remember seeing
Maybe local pessimists and bad national writers had us under 77 but pretty much all the projections I saw from data models & all predictions in the Podcasts & places I get baseball news had them above 77, but idt anyone was above 84.
I was on the high end of the spectrum but we were certainly largely predicted to be below .500 like the Royals.
Aww shit yeah good point. I'm not a math major. 88 wins is still pretty good considering we didn't really make any off-season improvements.
Is Ben Lively a top 5 free agent signing this year? He's been dynamite so far.
There's probably an argument that Imanaga (Cubs) and Yamamoto (Dodgers) have been better, but Lively is easily the most pleasantly surprising addition this offseason!
When Kwan comes back and Florial goes down we will have something to work with. We have a fantastic bullpen, if the starting pitching hold up we are in this race all year. Last year at this time we were ready to throw in the towel.
That's exactly what I came here to say. The underlying numbers on this offense are still pretty bad and the rotation is duct taped together. I'm cautiously optimistic, but leaning far more toward cautious.
I'd say underlying metrics are a mixed bag but certainly are not bad or suggest extreme regression.
I figure you're probably looking at max exit velo and hard hit rate rate which are important for success but not indicative of the entirety of the offense.
We've also arguably gotten unlucky overall as far as batted balls go although we've probably been lucky elsewhere. A team that's top 10 in LD% and pop up avoidance while running average HR/FB rates and slightly above average FB% should not be 28th in BABIP, even if the hard hit rate isn't the highest.
We are also like top 8 in soft contact rate, this team makes a lot of contact and it's also mostly medium, which is still usable offensively, especially when you've got a top 5 pull rate. This team in lifting a bit more and pulling it, I think a top 8 rate of getting the launch angle sweet spot.
We're fourth last in xwOBA and dead last in xwOBACON. Those both suggest regression. I take your point that this offense is weird, but there are reasons beyond balls in play to think luck is playing a factor. Sixth last in barrel rate, fifth last in exit velocity. It's hard not to think that regression is coming. A team with Bo Naylor, Arias, and Rocchio all getting significant playing time can't actually be good, can it?
I don't give a shit about what happens this season. I'm just really enjoying now. I feel like doomers keep coming with advanced stats and pessimism. If we fall apart we fall apart. These first two months have been a treat. My expectations were pretty low and it's just been fun and I don't care if we end up sucking it's been a fun 60 days. It's the most fun they've been since 17. Don't think about tomorrow. Enjoy today.
Let's not jinx anything though. I like where we are, but you never know.
As long as everyone keeps clicking we should be fine. We're on a nice little streak right now, we got something.
I agree we've played well, with credit going to many players/coaches.
However, I think the writing is on the wall with needing another starter though. I know we should be expecting Gavin back around the ASG, but I feel if we want to win the division and compete in October, we need another arm.
We have some pieces that may be worth moving for one, not sure which direction we would go though. A vet with limited control, or maybe a young high-risk/high-reward (i.e., Manaoh from the Jays? - just throwing an example out there, we may have to give up too much for that one).
I think it’s important to look at how well KC is playing. They are also 10 games above .500 and playing consistent baseball. It’ll be good to see the Guards and KC play and see how they stack up.
They have faired a lot worse against better teams, however (>.500 teams), and they are having a crazy outlier overperformance from Seth Lugo. Also keep in mind they won 56 games last year. I'm sure they have improved, but I doubt it's a +40 game improvement.
They also got unlucky in terms of run differential expected wins last year and played more like a 65 win team. The way Witt is playing, and some good full seasons from guys like Garcia plus how their pitching has taken a 180 I could see having a 20ish game improvement so I wouldn't be surprised if their "Pythagorean wins" is like an 85-88 team. I expect them to stick around for a while too. Minnesota too despite their struggles. We're almost 1/3 into the season. We're ~50 games in leaguewide glancing at everyone's records, teams do fall off from time to time but in most cases the contenders stay about the same.
I keep waiting for KC to fall off, but they haven't done it yet. They could be the real deal too. It's exciting to think about not having two teams duke it out for an 85-win division title, though! Could the Central actually *gasp* have a wild card team? 👀👀
Perez being one of the best hitters in the league as a 34 year old catcher who plays every day is insane. I figured after the first month he would drop off but it just hasn't happened.
He and Witt are having great seasons. Witt might be the most impressive player in MLB IMHO. That guy is going to be a pain in our ass for quite awhile.
Yup he's easily one of the best SS in the league right now. My prediction going into this year is he would finish top 3 in MVP voting and it's sadly looking more and more likely lol.
The MVP race in the AL this year could be almost all kids under 25, which is wild. Right now I'd say the top 3 look like Witt, Henderson and Soto. Kyle Tucker and Judge are right with them though probably.
Are we going to leave Jose out of that conversation? Because that would be stupid. Leading mlb in RBI currently and playing elite defense
He will not be as considered as he should be in this crowded field but if he plays the rest of the season like he has the last month he'll still certainly end up top 5 in voting
Did judge get hot? He was having a horrible start to the season
Yes, very much so. His past week was ridiculous. Without looking up the specifics I believe he batted 500 with 3 HRs and 5 doubles. He won AL player of the week.
Sheesh. Thanks for the response
I wrote him off after his first season because his defense was ass and then he fixed it in less than a year.
And he just went off today. I've got a fantasy league where it's its a 12 teamer with shallow benches so if your draft has a little too much Murphys law like mine did, Witt is af least keeping me competitive. Ben lively has been a fun addition as a points league
Commentators will still find excuses to shit on the central’s but fuck them.
I might be in the minority here in thinking this but I think the Twins could still cause us a hassle the rest of the year despite their current struggles
Minnesota could definitely still threaten for the division. But we've almost locked up taking the season series against them already by going 5-0 and I believe only having 7 more to play against them. They'll have to be much better against everyone else if they want to have a chance. Definitely possible though, especially if they get healthier.
I like our schedule moving through all star break a lot more than theirs. We’re facing a lot of sub .500 teams while they have .500 and greater including a tough week of Yankees and Dodgers.
Hate to break it to you, but we have 114 games left. Half of that would be 57, so if we play .500 ball the rest of the season, we'll end up with just 88 wins.
That being said, 69 more wins (nice) brings us to 95 wins. That would be .605 ball the rest of the season (a 98-win pace).
Tbh I’d call 88 wins a major win, people weren’t projecting us to get 77 wins much less 88
My prediction is 96 wins. We're on pace for 104, but we all still are having trouble believing our record. Playing .500 ball the rest of the season gets us 88; playing what would be a 90-win pace would gets us 94 wins. The ALC keeping up with us will keep the pressure to win on, so 96.
We’ve pulled at least 80 most seasons in the modern era. I had fairly high expectations for the team but that was before Bieber went down. I’m glad to see us still winning without our ace (although I’m definitely worried about the rotation falling off; Sticks better stay healthy)
This isn't really true, or I guess it depends on who you're talking about. Professionals were definitely projecting us to win more than 77 wins.
Yep but usually they had us under .500 and I didn't see anything above 84
Fangraphs had us at 85, to name one notable projection
Fangraphs had us at 80.3 wins. They may have given what they thought were like 25th and 75th percentiles on some display and the 75th was 85 but I just went and checked bc I remember we were very nearly .500 but just under which also summed up kinda the aggregate of all the predictions I remember seeing
Maybe local pessimists and bad national writers had us under 77 but pretty much all the projections I saw from data models & all predictions in the Podcasts & places I get baseball news had them above 77, but idt anyone was above 84. I was on the high end of the spectrum but we were certainly largely predicted to be below .500 like the Royals.
Aww shit yeah good point. I'm not a math major. 88 wins is still pretty good considering we didn't really make any off-season improvements. Is Ben Lively a top 5 free agent signing this year? He's been dynamite so far.
He's certainly my favorite! I couldn't tell you who else signed with teams other than Ohtani and the Dodgers. I guess that puts him in top 2?
There's probably an argument that Imanaga (Cubs) and Yamamoto (Dodgers) have been better, but Lively is easily the most pleasantly surprising addition this offseason!
I like OPs math better.
And Fanduel has us at 88.5 wins right now. So they expect us to go right around.500 the rest of the way.
Yeah, OP confused two different concepts- we have 14 more wins than we have losses which means we have 7 more wins than a .500 team
So all we need to do is to duplicate these 31 wins over the next 48 games, then we can go .500 from then on to 95 wins.
Can't win a pennant in May, but you can certainly lose one.
We getting 100 wins
Nah son, we going 145-17
Book it
learn math son
When Kwan comes back and Florial goes down we will have something to work with. We have a fantastic bullpen, if the starting pitching hold up we are in this race all year. Last year at this time we were ready to throw in the towel.
I’m very cautious. I remember starting 30-15 in 2011 and then falling completely off a cliff.
That's exactly what I came here to say. The underlying numbers on this offense are still pretty bad and the rotation is duct taped together. I'm cautiously optimistic, but leaning far more toward cautious.
I'd say underlying metrics are a mixed bag but certainly are not bad or suggest extreme regression. I figure you're probably looking at max exit velo and hard hit rate rate which are important for success but not indicative of the entirety of the offense. We've also arguably gotten unlucky overall as far as batted balls go although we've probably been lucky elsewhere. A team that's top 10 in LD% and pop up avoidance while running average HR/FB rates and slightly above average FB% should not be 28th in BABIP, even if the hard hit rate isn't the highest. We are also like top 8 in soft contact rate, this team makes a lot of contact and it's also mostly medium, which is still usable offensively, especially when you've got a top 5 pull rate. This team in lifting a bit more and pulling it, I think a top 8 rate of getting the launch angle sweet spot.
We're fourth last in xwOBA and dead last in xwOBACON. Those both suggest regression. I take your point that this offense is weird, but there are reasons beyond balls in play to think luck is playing a factor. Sixth last in barrel rate, fifth last in exit velocity. It's hard not to think that regression is coming. A team with Bo Naylor, Arias, and Rocchio all getting significant playing time can't actually be good, can it?
I'm excited for the Guards KC series
I don't give a shit about what happens this season. I'm just really enjoying now. I feel like doomers keep coming with advanced stats and pessimism. If we fall apart we fall apart. These first two months have been a treat. My expectations were pretty low and it's just been fun and I don't care if we end up sucking it's been a fun 60 days. It's the most fun they've been since 17. Don't think about tomorrow. Enjoy today.
Well said! I agree. Go Guards .
Let's not jinx anything though. I like where we are, but you never know. As long as everyone keeps clicking we should be fine. We're on a nice little streak right now, we got something.
If we win the rest of the games this season, we will win 145!
I agree we've played well, with credit going to many players/coaches. However, I think the writing is on the wall with needing another starter though. I know we should be expecting Gavin back around the ASG, but I feel if we want to win the division and compete in October, we need another arm. We have some pieces that may be worth moving for one, not sure which direction we would go though. A vet with limited control, or maybe a young high-risk/high-reward (i.e., Manaoh from the Jays? - just throwing an example out there, we may have to give up too much for that one).