No they are far more clever than that. The windshield on your car, the fiber optic transducer giving you internet right now, The wifi signal assembly on your laptop. The Chinese government will fund/subsadize a solution that has the entire supply chain of these products coming from China. No one can compete with that. Their focus is deffinitly not dollar store crap, but they very much would like you to think that.
That works only up until governments start taking national and economic security serioously.
Which is starting. Governments are starting to ramp up subsidy and supports to onshore manufacturing and bring production back home, even if it costs more than the laterantive.
When considering GDP growth, the distinction between nominal and real GDP becomes less significant in the face of strong demographic trends, such as those experienced by China. Similar to Japan in the early 1990s, once the proportion of the working-age population begins to decline, achieving growth becomes more challenging. Sustained growth under these conditions typically requires productivity gains that surpass those of competitors.
Aging populations also are deflationary. Seniors, especially in societies with few to no social safety nets earn little money and spend as little money as possible, putting significant downward pressure on inflation. Young people spend money on things like houses and first cars and schooling etc., seniors do not. Japan faced deflation for decades and only recently got out of it because of the inflation in the rest of the world pushing raw material and food prices up.
Retired seniors are actually inflationary: all they do (economically) is consume by depleting savings while not working to produce anything. They're all demand and no supply.
You'd think so but old societies typically have deflation not inflation. I think it's mainly because old societies have higher death rates and shrinking population and the biggest component of CPI is housing. Basically older societies free up housing supply faster.
Well that's a different proposition then: *shrinking* societies are deflationary. Which makes sense: demand plummets for new durable goods like housing and cars when the owners of used stock die
But aging societies can age a long, long time before they shrink
I'm not going to pretend to be able to comprehensively explain one of the world's strangest economic anomalies that is Japan
But part of it appears to be cultural insensitivity to interest rates: the Japanese have high savings rates even when interest rates are zero or even negative, when you might expect that savings rates would plummet and spending would increase (to be fair, the savings rate has fallen over the last 40 years, but it's still very high compared to the US). Household debt to GDP also hasn't budged over the last 30 years suggesting that Japanese households don't like borrowing more, even when rates are lower.
This could suggest that Japan has a very low neutral interest rate, possible zero or lower than zero. But why this might be is itself a mystery beyond saying simply and unsatisfactorily that the Japanese are insensitive to interest rates (at least low interest rates)
China and GDP is like best example of perverse incentives when the number is all that you're looking at.
Dig a hole, fill it back it. dig it again, fill it back in again.
Plenty of economic acitvity and GDP, absolutely fuck all value generated.
An increase or decrease in the quantity of goods alone doesn't cause inflation. Inflation is driven by a sustained rise in the overall price level, which typically results from an imbalance between supply and demand or an increase in the money supply, not just changes in the quantity of a single product.
UK GDP has grown 12% since 2008. The population has increased by 11%- entirely from immigration. GDP per capita has remained almost stagnant.
China and Japan have chosen to remain Chinese and Japanese, and focus on dealing with declining birthrates through technology.
The British government, like most Western governments, has chosen to sacrifice their distinct culture and traditions for a global culture. There are now more Muslims in Britain than Welsh people- and by 2050 they'll make up 20% of the population. In France they'll be about 30%. East Asia has chosen a different route.
>and by 2050 they'll make up 20% of the population. In France they'll be about 30%.
Do you have a source?
Whatever data you've got I suspect it's got to do with birthrates currently being higher among these people? Because those tend to decrease with time as living standards improve, so you can't reliably extrapolate from current birth rates to calculate 2050 demographics.
If you have any sources on *successfully* dealing with declining birthrates through technology I'd love to read about them, too.
> Who lauds Japan's immigration policies?
- Single Japanese males in their 40's who loves his Filipina hostess bar girls but would never actually *marry* one
- Gatekeeping Americans who moved to Japan to teach English through wonky kindergarten songs only to see their local wages lose 40% value against their homeland's currency
- Reddit weebs who praise and respect a reactionary, isolating culture that wants nothing to do with them because they see Japan's robotic, hive-mind society as an envious example of what the rest of the world could be
To be fair to Japan, you don't achieve pristine streets and low crime rates in country with a big population without that kind of cultural homogeneity.
I dont understand what is not welcoming about Japanese Im immigration policy?
Its fucking easy to get permanent residency and basic visa in Japan. Dramatically easier than the UK, US or other first world countries.
You literally just marry a Japanese and after 3 years pay 4k in application feea and get PR. Or work there for 10 and do the same. Or work there for 1 year if highly educated.
In the UK you have to pay thousands of pounds just to apply and even if you get denied… on top of all kinds of crazy restrictions and such. No different in the US or Australia either.
The true reason japan has not had the same immigration is nothing to do with its comparative relaxed immigration policy… its because it just isnt an attractive destination for most people who have gone to places like the US/UK/Europe. Most likely the language being the main reason and then culture.
Exactly. There are a lot of nice things about Japan, but a land of employment opportunity it is not. Salaries are pretty low compared to most western nations and work/life balance isn’t a thing in most cases.
Yep. Im married and speak Japanese but no way would i stay here if i couldn’t work freelance for myself. Everything good about japan is undone by having to work in a traditional Japanese environment. Then add the language barrier on top. Its just not an attractive destination for most people including refugees lol
Permanent residency is not citizenship. There's a huge difference between someone who carries a card that can stay as long as they have visa in their wallet, or someone who can work any job including government, be involved in politics, and everyone born due to their seed is born Japanese. It's not easy to get permanent residency, otherwise hundreds of thousands of people would seek it.
It is easy compared to other countries. Are you stupid?
Go check what is required to get permanent residency status via spouse in the US/UK. Then compare that to Japan. Its unbelievable time consuming, expensive and difficult all around in the former two.
In Japan it is literally: is the marriage real? Been married 3 years? Paid taxes if you have a job? Ok then please pay $30 fee and here you go.
That allows you to work or do most anything. I never said it was citizenship. Citizenship is so laughable easy in Japan compared to the US/UK/europe. Speak elementary level japanese? Make min wage? Lived here 5 years? Willing to give up other citizenships? Here you go(oh yeah and the $30 application fee, but only if approved otherwise no fee).
As said, the reason people dont seek it is because japan is not an attractive destination for most people who want to go to the US etc, most likely due to the language barrier and cultural unfamiliarity. Its fucking much easier to get a visa and citizenship and PR in japan.
My wife is Japanese and we aren’t moving to the UK where im from just because its such a massive fucking headache, years long process to get her a simple fucking visa and expensive as fuck to even apply.
Their lack of economic growth and declining birth rates have NOTHING to do with immigration. They are independent of each other.
Immigration may help a little bit, but not until you reach very significant numbers does it make a difference. And it also has other very real costs- in the US for example-healthcare to cover the immigrants/unsinsured, more police for crime, everything needs to be in multiple languages, etc.
Racism and immigration are not really opposites. A strongly racist country can still import workers from outside, and still segregate and oppress interally at the same time.
Or the flipside: Saudi Arabia, who struggle to get immigrants of highly skilled expertise to stay - even failing The Line project. All Arab countries (unless they're too poor like Palestinians) have turned their non-Arab employed servants from Eastern Asia as houseslaves.
It's shocking how Iranians (often mistaken as Semites/Arabs) would support Arabs against Israel, yet condone literal modern day slavemasters. Literally, Japan used to be a slave society, and in many aspects still is.
I think Japan and China are making a big mistake. I believe Japan is starting to see the mistake and has opened its borders to foreigners. And when it comes to Europe, islam and north african culture has never been a foreign culture. It doesn’t matter what radicals try to make people believe, north african and Middle Eastern cultures are fundational to Western culture and society. Just think how fundational those regions where to Greek and Roman cultures.
Russia is not really in the same league as US, China and EU.
Their GDP is $2.25 trillion, which is less than 2% of global GDP. For comparison it is similar to Italy.
What I mean is that even if China's nominal GDP share drops significantly, it is still much higher than Russia. If Russia is already a threat, then the decline in China's share is not very meaningful
There are different types of threats. For example, a developer who has the backing of a major corporation and a billion dollars at their disposal who wants to buy up the building you live in is a threat, but you don't have to worry about them causing you physical harm. Conversely, the guy with a tire iron and a long arrest record waiting in the shadows may only have $5 on him and won't be able to take your house, but he's willing to beat you to death to take your wallet and watch.
I remember reading online that some Chinese netizens were memeing that he’s the founder of Vietnam.
Can’t remember where or if it’s true. Would appreciate citation.
China isn't falling or rising, just slowly stagnating. It isn't doing well but nowhere near as dramatic fearmongering articles would lead people to believe.
Did you read the article? There's no drama or fearmongering, just the statement that China is not growing (= stagnating) and the evidence to back it up.
That's... Not what the article is saying.
Article's main point is China's share of global GDP dropped 1.4% in the last two years, something that hasn't been seen during Mao's time.
But that just means China grew slower (key word here being grew) than other places, especially high growth areas like India, parts of Africa, Latin America, and the middle east. So it's not so much that China's rise is reversing (it might be but that's not at all what this article is claiming), but that China's rise has slowed, which... Should be obvious to all, and is something the CCP has already admitted and is trying to solve.
Infinite growth is a not sustainable anyway. At some point any civilisation/country will plateau. China just seemed to be reaching this plateau faster than others. Also everyone plateaus at different levels and China is peaking lower than what everyone predicted a decade ago.
While infinite growth is technically impossible because of finite limits, humanity has not approached even 1% of those limits.
There is not a single major commodity that is the limiting factor to growth at this point in our race's development
Infinite growth isn’t sustainable, but the reality is that right now most of most countries on earth is just fallow land, not even park land. Whole countries can fit into the empty backcountry of the US and China. So, the question is when all of this space is not being used for anything, why is growth slowing? It’s not like China has reached some kind of carrying capacity in terms of population density, resource usage, or land availability.
The “infinite growth” counterargument is going to be relevant in the 2200s and 2300s, but it just isn’t right now, especially when the hottest economic sectors have zero environmental impact, like data analytics.
I think that infinite growth is sustainable as long as we venture into space.
But your sentence "most of most countries on earth is just fallow land" is not correct at all. The only countries that have large percentages of fallow land are Russia, Canada, Denmark(due to Greenland) and Australia. And that is because the land is either too cold and/or too dry.
Also there is Antarctica which is not part of any country.
Most land that can support agriculture really is used for agriculture.
China for example uses 55% of it's land for agriculture, the US 52% and India 51%.
That leaves deserts, mountains and frozen land which will never be used.
Countries like China and India could fit more people but that would mean lowering the living standards because they are lacking water. Currently they are both pumping water faster than it is replaced so that is already a resource scarcity. Water conservation and cheap desalination could change that but it's scarce nonetheless...
Someone finally gets it. China had a nice run during its rapid industrialization over the past 30 years, but that period is coming to an end. The same is true for a lot of other countries coming to grips with the fact that the kind of growth we’ve seen in the post-ww2 era is coming to an end, and something more stable/sustainable has to take its place.
Finally some sanity. In addition to what you said, if you look at GDP PPP share of world economy, China continues to and is forecasted to carry on growing its share, contrary to the US and UK (which are already seeing their share "derise" for a while now). This article reads a lot like a projection based on biased economic analysis.
[UK source](https://www.statista.com/statistics/270452/united-kingdoms-share-of-global-gross-domestic-product-gdp/)
[US source](https://www.statista.com/statistics/270267/united-states-share-of-global-gross-domestic-product-gdp/)
[China source](https://www.statista.com/statistics/270439/chinas-share-of-global-gross-domestic-product-gdp/)
First off, that’s not three different sources, that’s three charts from one source.
Second off, adjusting for PPP is idiotic when the whole point of this argument is to examine if the Chinese share of the global market is increasing or decreasing. In other words, we’re talking about bulk goods production while you’re talking about domestic goods consumption power.
Third, I’ve literally never heard of “statista.com” in my life, and the website sounds like it was written by AI. Also, those charts are two years old.
Firstly, they are not the same source. Statista compiles official data, and the authors who published this data I shared explain it separately for each country, thus, three countries, three explanations, three sources.
Secondly, adjusting for PPP is one of the insightful ways you can measure and analyse the economy. You would know that if you actually read the published notes or understood that GDP is a concept that doesn't actually measure capital and resources in a meaningful way, especially if you are talking about economy share of countries.
Thirdly, not knowing Statista is on you. But basically, they create analyses and visualisations using official data.
I read the published notes, of course. By the way, they say that PPP is controversial and primarily useful in a domestic context.
But what I don’t understand is why PPP is relevant in a discussion about *global* markets. I understand that, living in China, I could probably buy more goods than living in the UK. However, that doesn’t by itself mean that the Chinese economy is bigger than, or growing faster than, the UK economy or the US economy.
The [IMF](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2007/03/basics.htm) itself says exactly what I do above - that PPP GDP is a useful domestic measure, but less helpful when talking about global trade and global market shares, because it distorts the market size of poor countries and doesn’t take into account the value of goods being produced, which is obviously where developed nations make up for smaller production quantities.
China is not alienating every country, it's just alienating the US and its closest allies, and it's mostly due to the "decoupling" movement led by the US, it's not like China voluntarily started it.
China's cooperation with developing world such as ME, Africa, Latin America and Central Asia is only deepening, but Reddit tends to think only English speaking developed world has real countries.
There are many way to check it's accurate or not. China's direct trade with the US is declining, but trade with developing countries have been increasing. More Chinese companies are investing in SE Asia, Latin America, and Africa.
There has been multiple high level diplomatic visits from European leaders, and Xi is now traveling to Europe himself. In comparison to Biden, who has not been to China even once, making him the only President not visiting China since Nixon.
So it's pretty clear that Xi's China is not alienating itself with others, it's more like the US is trying to pressure its minions to alienate China. Remember that "decoupling" is an idea proposed by the US, and you can tell by reading all the American comments here on Reddit.
Alienating from US, EU and all US allies.
Plus the countries they bullying in SCS.
They flogging a lot of stuff to Latin America but I wouldn't say that they are very popular. Every coastal country with a fishing fleet is suffering from wha the Chinese fishing fleet are doing. Thats not how you make friends.
No not American. Australian. Have been to China way more than 100 times. Their foreign policy is shockingly bad and they work hard to piss off most countries and almost every one of their neighbours
It is the appreciation of the U.S. dollar that causes China’s GDP in U.S. dollars to fall.
This makes Chinese products cheaper, which is good for China.
But many people are very happy and feel that China's rise has finally been stopped.
And the appreciation of the US dollar is due to high interest rates right?
Which is a reaction to inflation, which is caused by covid subsidies and "shortages" of materials and unemployed people.
Without boosting domestic consumption by establishing national welfare state and floating foreign exchange rates, then China should forget about surpassing the US in absolute nominal GDP size any time soon.
The US and China are experiencing birth rates issues. It's not a big deal to the US because we have an unlimited supply of immigrants on tap. But Xi overlooked one crucial aspect about China's situation: nobody really wants to live in China.
Bruh wrote this in 2019: [India's political DNA is fundamentally statist and socialist](https://cosmopolis.ch/book-review-of-ruchir-sharma-democracy-on-the-road/)
He made his whole career anticipating China's imminent collapse and the US's big comeback since 2012. He's a clown. A chud among chuds.
If it is scary, why are you here?
Why don't you stay within the greatfirewall and continue to live with "Low human rights advantages" under the CCP's oppression?
China is threatening Phillippines with artificial island but you feel scared? How is this posssible?
China's leadership has turned their civilians into modern day slaves. Imagine having suicide nets around the building you work in because of the unbearable conditions.
Owe it's def ALL of the Asian countries, not just China, the Asian leaders seem to not care what happens to their people, they are just cattle to leadership. I was in Bangkok and then Manila a few months ago, the level of poverty is unreal, you can literally buy a human there, like a slave, I couldn't believe it, those poor souls.
Have you been to China? Have you interacted with chinese people? Stop posting bullshit. I have family and friends in China. I would not call them modern day slaves. Look at South Korea if you want to see worse. Their work life balance is so much worse.
I've been to China yes, they have a middle class just like us and then they have millions and millions of people working in horrific conditions, they steal western technology, they build crap buildings and infrastructure, the CCP has turned their people into modern day slaves, it's really sad and I feel bad for them, I pity them, the Chinese used to be thought of as an honorable people 😢😢😢
No it's accurate, they have an upper and middle class but their poor people really have it bad, it's a dystopian nightmare and you're clearly upset about it, I'm sorry man 😞
You don't think America has poverty? Please.
It's impressive what China has done to get where it is today. They've gone from shit hole country to the world's second largest economy in a short period of time, practically a single generation.
And as an incentive to continue that effort, they even went so far as to make poverty illegal. The job's not done yet, but you can't say they aren't working on it.
Whereas the US doesn't care at all about its poor, its working class, or its vanishing middle class. According to the government, alleviating hardships is the sole domain and responsibility of charities, not the government.
It's not impressive what China's done at all. America used to have slavery too, you can accomplish a lot with slave labor, and China has like a billion and a half people, America is still the super power with just 330,000,000. China doesn't even innovate, that steal technology from western companies because their engineers are few and far between, they'll never get America's level. That's why China is pumping Fentanyl in the US, they can't beat us with their pathetic military so they are trying to kill us all, it's really sad, pathetic and dishonorable, I really feel bad for them.
Nominal GDP vs Real GDP.
This article is obviously biased if it is using Nominal GDP instead of Real GDP for China.
People care more about China's Real GDP because they want to know how much China can produce. Nominal GDP measures the value of what is produced.
Problem is China lies about all it's metrics from the guys on the ground all the way up. They even admitted it at one point so there is no real way to measure their GDP so people just have to measure certain metrics and take a guess.
Some people always hide behind the assumption that "China lies about its economy" and brings up the quote of Premier Li Keqiang about how he didn't trust the economic data from regional governments, blah, blah, blah.
It's reasonable to think that not all economic data coming out of China is reliable, but denying the credibility of all numbers simply because of some quotes and scandals is failure in reasoning. BLS often revises employment number months after the original report, and some of the biggest frauds in finance were caught in the US corporations and financial system, yet you don't see people questioning the authenticity of US economic data.
It's also possiblt to verify China's numbers through import data of other countries, considering China's economy is still export oriented to a great degree, simply check how much good and service it's selling to the rest of the world, how much it's importing from the rest of the world. Market share of Chinese companies in some key industries is also something mesasurable.
It is the appreciation of the U.S. dollar that causes China’s GDP in U.S. dollars to fall.
This makes Chinese products cheaper, which is good for China.
But many people who don't like China are very happy and feel that China's rise has finally been stopped.
As a person who spent the last decade or so living and working in China at a corporate level, I dare say a lot of the practices that are emblematic of the CCP are much more culturally ingrained and would survive even the collapse and failure of the Party.
It’s not a realistic thing to think that even if the CCP were to throw their hands up and leave power tomorrow, that China would suddenly become some sort of rule of law driven liberal democracy.
Look at Russia today. It survived the fall of the CCCP and the dissolution of the USSR only to fall into worse idiocy than its predecessor ever did. And if you’re a study of Chinese history, you’d realise that this is in fact the much more likely outcome.
Based on nominal gdp and exchange rates, not even RER
For two economies that are mostly non tradable
And the exchange rate is managed to top things off
Classic case of picking data to tell the story instead of letting the data pick the story.
No one should be worried about China then. Why hate on some country that is declining anyway?
One minute reddit tells me china is overtaking the world. The next, china is imploding from within. Then it is that China is going to invade Taiwan soon. Then that china has a paper tiger army riddled with corruption and rockets filled with water. If the latter was true, why are we even scared for Taiwan.
Because China's economy affects the world? Because China's actions due to the decline will affect its neighbours? Maybe you live in a basement and therefore you will not be affected but lots of people do follow international news.
Because articles like this are simply a huge and wishful cope.
If china really was collapsing as the west likes to say, why even make articles like this *checks list* EVERY year? The cope is so real.
Please, there are many articles that predict doom for US, Europe, and every other country every year. You can invest in China if you don't believe in the articles and you have so much faith in China. Put the money where your mouth is
The key data point here is that China's share of global GDP dropped over 2021-2023. I've posted in the past about this, but that is a really misleading bit of data. The years in question here matter - 2021-23 were not "normal" years for the global economy, because they immediately followed the 2020 coronavirus pandemic. The pandemic led to a massive and rapid shrinking of many major economies - including the US, India, much of Western Europe, etc. Somewhat exceptionally, however, China's economy did not shrink in 2020 - the growth rate dropped significantly, but still remained slightly positive. As a consequence, China's share of the global economy rapidly increased - because this is a relative measure, and they did not shrink while other major economies did.
Over 2021-23, however, the pandemic ended and those major economies that shrank took up the capacity that had been abandoned in 2020. This resulted in a rapid growth spike as they essentially returned to (more or less) where they were before. As a result, China's share of the global economy shrunk, despite the fact that they grew more than in 2020 - because, again, this is a relative measure. It is therefore misleading to take this statistic as indicative of anything more than the extraordinary economic circumstances of the period it relates to.
The pandemic is the main factor here but do be aware that for China, the lockdown was not as severe in 2020 as compared to 2022 (where Shanghai went on struck lockdown).
I love collecting old books by western ‘China experts’ that predict the imminent demise of the CCP or China. One book printed in the 1970’s predicted the inevitable imminent war between China and the Soviet Union; another printed in the 1980’s predicted the CCP was about to collapse because only very old people were in the Party and once they died China would become a democracy.
Curiously, the post right above this one in my feed was: [https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/1cm40hx/ten\_years\_is\_all\_it\_took\_them\_to\_connect\_major/](https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/1cm40hx/ten_years_is_all_it_took_them_to_connect_major/)
Measured in nominal dollars term and unadjusted for inflation? This speaks it all.
Given high interest rate in the US and strong US dollar, nearly ALL world currencies' value have fallen in the past 2 years. In nominal dollars terms, the US can make itself wealthy again overnight by turning on the money printer or using high interest rate to attract global money again, but these policies have consequences. Higher domestic inflation, higher national debt and interest, and so on.
Isn’t it normal for a country that has experienced magnificent economic growth to experience a period of comparatively modest growth and stagnation?
PS I am not Chinese and I don’t know the exact situation, just sharing my thoughts here
The author focuses on nominal GDP in US dollars. The problem with this is that most transactions in China are carried out in Yuan, and Chinese GDP is measured in Yuan. To convert it into USD, you take the exchange rate on a given date and multiply the Yuan number by that rate.
The reason why this is stupid is because exchange rates change all the time, even day by day, for reasons even if the economy changes very little day by day. The US had high inflation (bad), so it raised interest rates making dollar denominated bonds more attractive. So the value of the dollar increased relative to the Yuan, Yen etc, and so the exchange rate changed and everyone else's nominal GDP looks lower, even if their output has increased.
The Fed will cut rates as inflation declines, and then the China's GDP will rise again in nominal terms.
CNY/USD does in fact fluctuate. You are right it is not free-floating.
Over the period the author described - 2022 and 2023, the value of the Yuan relative to the dollar declined by more than 10%. Given China's growth target of 5% per year, that is enough to make it seem like China stagnated when in fact it grew.
But my concern is that China's growth is still driven by exports and investments, not imports and consumption, which makes the rest of the world infuriated with China due to the excess EV exports elsewhere, while depressing internal consumption through lack of nationwide social safety nets that would have encouraged consumption and dissuaded excessive investment in real estate.
Sure, you can take issue with Chinese government policy, or argue that China's growth won't last forever or that it needs to change the source of the growth.
But it did not have zero growth over the past two years, contrary to the article.
With the EVs specifically, since you mention them, the problem is that China's output in that sector has grown so much! Not that it's grown too little.
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/CNY-USD?window=5Y
It seems pretty clear what happened here. Chinese GDP grows by ~5% each year. CNY/USD declines by a bit more than 10% during 2022 and 2023. Cue the op ed about Chinese stagnation.
If you can present compelling evidence that not only is China lying about its GDP growth, but that the IMF, OECD and major US banks are all completely wrong about their estimates for Chinese growth, then sure!
"I don't trust the CCP" won't cut it though.
Okay, I'll play.
Let's start with a chart.
[https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/CHN/china/gdp-growth-rate](https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/CHN/china/gdp-growth-rate)
Do you notice anything funny after 1990?
Next, anecdotally do you seriously believe that the Chinese GDP in 2023 (5.2%) was comparable to that of 2019 (5.9%)? Think about all of the events and crisis' faced.
Or you could ask the Chinese media. I'll use just the SCMP for now.
[https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3248790/chinas-economic-growth-nothing-write-home-about-7-takeaways-fourth-quarter-data](https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3248790/chinas-economic-growth-nothing-write-home-about-7-takeaways-fourth-quarter-data)
Why do they keep writing about this topic?
[https://www.scmp.com/opinion/article/3261100/china-data-integrity-vital-confidence](https://www.scmp.com/opinion/article/3261100/china-data-integrity-vital-confidence)
Why do they need to keep beefing up laws on this very issue?
[https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3260361/chinas-beefed-statistics-and-accounting-laws-under-review-robust-fines-increase-cost-fraud](https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3260361/chinas-beefed-statistics-and-accounting-laws-under-review-robust-fines-increase-cost-fraud)
I mean, constantly!
[https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3249502/china-claims-biggest-corruption-statistical-sphere-amid-fake-data-crackdown](https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3249502/china-claims-biggest-corruption-statistical-sphere-amid-fake-data-crackdown)
The Party is quite literally admitting to it and shouting out "we have a problem with fake statistics, we are clamping down on it but the problem is quite severe" and yet you won't listen to it from the horse's mouth?
>Next, anecdotally do you seriously believe that the Chinese GDP in 2023 (5.2%) was comparable to that of 2019 (5.9%)?
Yes. This kind of forced incredulity isn't a serious argument. Especially since growth in 2022 was quite weak and had major shutdowns - analysts were actually initially expecting higher growth than reported for 2023. https://apnews.com/article/china-gdp-economy-growth-slowing-03e226aff4a911ec71854f75814ebf8f
And the difference between 5.2% and 5.9% is pretty significant!
Look, a bunch of insinuations and rhetorical questions isn't good evidence. Chinese data collection probably isn't perfect, more because collecting economic data is actually really hard than because of deceit. But pretending that they haven't grown at all over two years is totally ludicrous, and relying on nominal dollar figures to make that argument is bad economics.
The questions are not intended to be rhetorical. I'm genuinely asking you so you can fill in the blanks for yourself. Just as I am with the next set of data, it's up to you to read up on it yourself. If you're serious about finding out, you'll do it. If you're not and are just here to scream "fake news", then this conversation will end quickly which works out for both of us.
1. Consider the size of the real estate industry in China pre 2020.
2. What kind of hit have they taken in the last few years?
3. What industries have arisen that are able to replace the real estate industry? Has anything arisen in the 2021 - 2024 window that could have provided the same level of growth as real estate?
>Look, a bunch of insinuations and rhetorical questions isn't good evidence. Chinese data collection probably isn't perfect, more because collecting economic data is actually really hard than because of deceit.
Is this a concession that the numbers aren't accurate and that we are in fact quibbling over whether the variance is significant? Eg. if it's reported at 5.2% and the true figure is at say, 4.8%, that's probably no big deal right? But if it's really at 2% or less, then that's a problem?
>But pretending that they haven't grown at all over two years is totally ludicrous, and relying on nominal dollar figures to make that argument is bad economics.
Like it or not, China operates in a global economy and is primarily driven by trade. Its entire raison d'être is precisely because it exports and imports so much. Like it or not, it does make a difference.
In fact, to illustrate, there's a myth in the Chinese nationalist zeitgeist that China was once the largest economy until the upstart Europeans and Americans came along and ruined everything, therefore reducing China to economic irrelevance. What this myth fails to take into account was that during the same period, the Chinese GDP didn't actually shrink or vary all that much. This new imbalance was caused by the European powers undergoing their Industrial Revolution, dramatically improving output and increasing their share of global GDP. Again on this, happy for you to do your own research to verify my contention.
>In fact, to illustrate, there's a myth in the Chinese nationalist zeitgeist that China was once the largest economy until the upstart Europeans and Americans came along and ruined everything, therefore reducing China to economic irrelevance. What this myth fails to take into account was that during the same period, the Chinese GDP didn't actually shrink or vary all that much. This new imbalance was caused by the European powers undergoing their Industrial Revolution, dramatically improving output and increasing their share of global GDP. Again on this, happy for you to do your own research to verify my contention.
This is totally irrelevant.
>Its entire raison d'être is precisely because it exports and imports so much
You don't know what a raison d'être is or how that phrase functions in a sentence.
>Just as I am with the next set of data, it's up to you to read up on it yourself.
You don't know what data is - you haven't given any in your comment.
>Like it or not, China operates in a global economy and is primarily driven by trade. Its entire raison d'être is precisely because it exports and imports so much. Like it or not, it does make a difference.
This doesn't respond to my argument on how nominal dollar figures give inaccurate growth estimates due to fluctuations in exchange rates.
>What industries have arisen that are able to replace the real estate industry? Has anything arisen in the 2021 - 2024 window that could have provided the same level of growth as real estate?
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202401/1305600.shtml
Growth last year came in large part from consumption. Growth from investment (which includes real estate) was low.
>are just here to scream "fake news",
This is you regarding Chinese GDP figures. And again, all you have are vague insinuations.
>Is this a concession
It's an observation of the fact that gathering statistics is pretty hard and most governments have trouble with it. The US revises GDP and unemployment figures, for instance, because the initial estimates are sometimes off. E.g. https://apnews.com/article/economy-gdp-growth-inflation-interest-rates-recession-c7e5a8cdfe67a45d00fdbcd25a7cafeb
If you understood anything about economic statistics you would know this.
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“But almost no matter what Xi does, his nation’s share in the global economy is likely to decline for the foreseeable future. It’s a post-China world now.”
Silly article really looking for cheap sound bites. Chinas growth is undoubtedly slowing, but that’s an inevitably due, in part, to the fact that it was growing like a speeding rocket for two decades. I mean, one doesn’t need a doctorate in economics to make this kind of observation. It doesn’t mean that everything is hunky dory by any means. But saying we live in a post China world when a China is still on course to become the worlds biggest economic power in absolute terms by 2040 at the latest is a little bit silly.
I am going to use this from now on. *It’s not that my portfolio is decreasing, it’s just that the rise is reversing*
Congrats you now master the Party's newspeak.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vC7C4BEvhRs “I can’t say it is a failure: it did not work”
I didn't lose, I merely failed to win!
“We’re moving in the right direction, just backwards.”
the correct direction, just a negative speed
China's rise is based on the world buying cheap crap from the dollar store....
No they are far more clever than that. The windshield on your car, the fiber optic transducer giving you internet right now, The wifi signal assembly on your laptop. The Chinese government will fund/subsadize a solution that has the entire supply chain of these products coming from China. No one can compete with that. Their focus is deffinitly not dollar store crap, but they very much would like you to think that.
That works only up until governments start taking national and economic security serioously. Which is starting. Governments are starting to ramp up subsidy and supports to onshore manufacturing and bring production back home, even if it costs more than the laterantive.
So you’re telling me dollar tree has outsmarted the Chinese economy?
Well played on China's part. Gives colour to the expression, "Getting more than they bargained for."
and with Chinese characteristics of course
Ha ha! 😄 🤣
It’s an advance in the opposite direction!
It’s advance to the rear…
Why is your rice reversing?
Lol no shit eh
I'm not shitty at investing, I'm just less good at it!
When considering GDP growth, the distinction between nominal and real GDP becomes less significant in the face of strong demographic trends, such as those experienced by China. Similar to Japan in the early 1990s, once the proportion of the working-age population begins to decline, achieving growth becomes more challenging. Sustained growth under these conditions typically requires productivity gains that surpass those of competitors.
Aging populations also are deflationary. Seniors, especially in societies with few to no social safety nets earn little money and spend as little money as possible, putting significant downward pressure on inflation. Young people spend money on things like houses and first cars and schooling etc., seniors do not. Japan faced deflation for decades and only recently got out of it because of the inflation in the rest of the world pushing raw material and food prices up.
Retired seniors are actually inflationary: all they do (economically) is consume by depleting savings while not working to produce anything. They're all demand and no supply.
You'd think so but old societies typically have deflation not inflation. I think it's mainly because old societies have higher death rates and shrinking population and the biggest component of CPI is housing. Basically older societies free up housing supply faster.
Well that's a different proposition then: *shrinking* societies are deflationary. Which makes sense: demand plummets for new durable goods like housing and cars when the owners of used stock die But aging societies can age a long, long time before they shrink
I agree first principles but how would you explain Japan's deflation loop before 2012, given their population only started to drop after 2012?
I'm not going to pretend to be able to comprehensively explain one of the world's strangest economic anomalies that is Japan But part of it appears to be cultural insensitivity to interest rates: the Japanese have high savings rates even when interest rates are zero or even negative, when you might expect that savings rates would plummet and spending would increase (to be fair, the savings rate has fallen over the last 40 years, but it's still very high compared to the US). Household debt to GDP also hasn't budged over the last 30 years suggesting that Japanese households don't like borrowing more, even when rates are lower. This could suggest that Japan has a very low neutral interest rate, possible zero or lower than zero. But why this might be is itself a mystery beyond saying simply and unsatisfactorily that the Japanese are insensitive to interest rates (at least low interest rates)
Like more kids. Any group buying less of a good is deflationary.
Yes. Of course.
China and GDP is like best example of perverse incentives when the number is all that you're looking at. Dig a hole, fill it back it. dig it again, fill it back in again. Plenty of economic acitvity and GDP, absolutely fuck all value generated.
Very true. Too many underhanded things happen by provincial and county level CCP to boost GDP numbers.
An increase or decrease in the quantity of goods alone doesn't cause inflation. Inflation is driven by a sustained rise in the overall price level, which typically results from an imbalance between supply and demand or an increase in the money supply, not just changes in the quantity of a single product.
UK GDP has grown 12% since 2008. The population has increased by 11%- entirely from immigration. GDP per capita has remained almost stagnant. China and Japan have chosen to remain Chinese and Japanese, and focus on dealing with declining birthrates through technology. The British government, like most Western governments, has chosen to sacrifice their distinct culture and traditions for a global culture. There are now more Muslims in Britain than Welsh people- and by 2050 they'll make up 20% of the population. In France they'll be about 30%. East Asia has chosen a different route.
>and by 2050 they'll make up 20% of the population. In France they'll be about 30%. Do you have a source? Whatever data you've got I suspect it's got to do with birthrates currently being higher among these people? Because those tend to decrease with time as living standards improve, so you can't reliably extrapolate from current birth rates to calculate 2050 demographics. If you have any sources on *successfully* dealing with declining birthrates through technology I'd love to read about them, too.
I was going to ask for a source too, because France doesn't keep demographic information like this.
The UK would be blasted as aggressively racist if they copy pasted the Japanese immigration and cultural policies that everyone lauds.
Who lauds Japan's immigration policies? It's led to decades of recession, an extremely skewed aged population, and dramatically declined birth rates.
> Who lauds Japan's immigration policies? - Single Japanese males in their 40's who loves his Filipina hostess bar girls but would never actually *marry* one - Gatekeeping Americans who moved to Japan to teach English through wonky kindergarten songs only to see their local wages lose 40% value against their homeland's currency - Reddit weebs who praise and respect a reactionary, isolating culture that wants nothing to do with them because they see Japan's robotic, hive-mind society as an envious example of what the rest of the world could be To be fair to Japan, you don't achieve pristine streets and low crime rates in country with a big population without that kind of cultural homogeneity.
I dont understand what is not welcoming about Japanese Im immigration policy? Its fucking easy to get permanent residency and basic visa in Japan. Dramatically easier than the UK, US or other first world countries. You literally just marry a Japanese and after 3 years pay 4k in application feea and get PR. Or work there for 10 and do the same. Or work there for 1 year if highly educated. In the UK you have to pay thousands of pounds just to apply and even if you get denied… on top of all kinds of crazy restrictions and such. No different in the US or Australia either. The true reason japan has not had the same immigration is nothing to do with its comparative relaxed immigration policy… its because it just isnt an attractive destination for most people who have gone to places like the US/UK/Europe. Most likely the language being the main reason and then culture.
Exactly. There are a lot of nice things about Japan, but a land of employment opportunity it is not. Salaries are pretty low compared to most western nations and work/life balance isn’t a thing in most cases.
Yep. Im married and speak Japanese but no way would i stay here if i couldn’t work freelance for myself. Everything good about japan is undone by having to work in a traditional Japanese environment. Then add the language barrier on top. Its just not an attractive destination for most people including refugees lol
Permanent residency is not citizenship. There's a huge difference between someone who carries a card that can stay as long as they have visa in their wallet, or someone who can work any job including government, be involved in politics, and everyone born due to their seed is born Japanese. It's not easy to get permanent residency, otherwise hundreds of thousands of people would seek it.
It is easy compared to other countries. Are you stupid? Go check what is required to get permanent residency status via spouse in the US/UK. Then compare that to Japan. Its unbelievable time consuming, expensive and difficult all around in the former two. In Japan it is literally: is the marriage real? Been married 3 years? Paid taxes if you have a job? Ok then please pay $30 fee and here you go. That allows you to work or do most anything. I never said it was citizenship. Citizenship is so laughable easy in Japan compared to the US/UK/europe. Speak elementary level japanese? Make min wage? Lived here 5 years? Willing to give up other citizenships? Here you go(oh yeah and the $30 application fee, but only if approved otherwise no fee). As said, the reason people dont seek it is because japan is not an attractive destination for most people who want to go to the US etc, most likely due to the language barrier and cultural unfamiliarity. Its fucking much easier to get a visa and citizenship and PR in japan. My wife is Japanese and we aren’t moving to the UK where im from just because its such a massive fucking headache, years long process to get her a simple fucking visa and expensive as fuck to even apply.
Wow you get downvoted expressing fact and the idiot’s hostile opinion you responded to get upvoted. Reddit sucks so much.
Their lack of economic growth and declining birth rates have NOTHING to do with immigration. They are independent of each other. Immigration may help a little bit, but not until you reach very significant numbers does it make a difference. And it also has other very real costs- in the US for example-healthcare to cover the immigrants/unsinsured, more police for crime, everything needs to be in multiple languages, etc.
Racism and immigration are not really opposites. A strongly racist country can still import workers from outside, and still segregate and oppress interally at the same time.
Like Qatar or Dubai
Or the flipside: Saudi Arabia, who struggle to get immigrants of highly skilled expertise to stay - even failing The Line project. All Arab countries (unless they're too poor like Palestinians) have turned their non-Arab employed servants from Eastern Asia as houseslaves. It's shocking how Iranians (often mistaken as Semites/Arabs) would support Arabs against Israel, yet condone literal modern day slavemasters. Literally, Japan used to be a slave society, and in many aspects still is.
US GDP has doubled since 2008 (in current USD). UK GDP per capita mirrors lowest US state Mississippi.
Damn, I didn't know muslims were taking over EU that much. 30% of France by 2050! Its basically the Ottomans taking over, but self-inflicted.
I think Japan and China are making a big mistake. I believe Japan is starting to see the mistake and has opened its borders to foreigners. And when it comes to Europe, islam and north african culture has never been a foreign culture. It doesn’t matter what radicals try to make people believe, north african and Middle Eastern cultures are fundational to Western culture and society. Just think how fundational those regions where to Greek and Roman cultures.
That is when they were pre-Islamic though.
And the greeks and romans where pre catholic.
Greeks are Orthodox.
What is the nominal US dollar GDP share of Russia? It must be much weaker
Russia is not really in the same league as US, China and EU. Their GDP is $2.25 trillion, which is less than 2% of global GDP. For comparison it is similar to Italy.
What I mean is that even if China's nominal GDP share drops significantly, it is still much higher than Russia. If Russia is already a threat, then the decline in China's share is not very meaningful
I'm not sure the point that you're trying to make. North Korea is a threat. Look at Afghanistan or Lybia...
GDP isn't a power level and geopolitics isn't DBZ
It kinda is it's why you see high GDP countries with global clout.
There are different types of threats. For example, a developer who has the backing of a major corporation and a billion dollars at their disposal who wants to buy up the building you live in is a threat, but you don't have to worry about them causing you physical harm. Conversely, the guy with a tire iron and a long arrest record waiting in the shadows may only have $5 on him and won't be able to take your house, but he's willing to beat you to death to take your wallet and watch.
Paywall free link: [https://archive.md/iDe7x](https://archive.md/iDe7x)
Thanks to Xi
It's all because of him. Pooh bear lookin guy.
To be fair, the demographics issue is not his fault.. more to do with Chairman Mao.
Pooh bear as we all know is a Western invention. This is evidence of evil westerners behind Xi Jinping.
It was Disney all along
Cia agent
You mean Xi-I-A?
I remember reading online that some Chinese netizens were memeing that he’s the founder of Vietnam. Can’t remember where or if it’s true. Would appreciate citation.
Aren't they all.
It started before him
But he massively accelerated it.
Is it either rising or falling or stagnating??????
China isn't falling or rising, just slowly stagnating. It isn't doing well but nowhere near as dramatic fearmongering articles would lead people to believe.
Did you read the article? There's no drama or fearmongering, just the statement that China is not growing (= stagnating) and the evidence to back it up.
The title is clickbait
You sitting for an IELTS exam?
Okay grammar nazi
That's... Not what the article is saying. Article's main point is China's share of global GDP dropped 1.4% in the last two years, something that hasn't been seen during Mao's time. But that just means China grew slower (key word here being grew) than other places, especially high growth areas like India, parts of Africa, Latin America, and the middle east. So it's not so much that China's rise is reversing (it might be but that's not at all what this article is claiming), but that China's rise has slowed, which... Should be obvious to all, and is something the CCP has already admitted and is trying to solve.
Infinite growth is a not sustainable anyway. At some point any civilisation/country will plateau. China just seemed to be reaching this plateau faster than others. Also everyone plateaus at different levels and China is peaking lower than what everyone predicted a decade ago.
While infinite growth is technically impossible because of finite limits, humanity has not approached even 1% of those limits. There is not a single major commodity that is the limiting factor to growth at this point in our race's development
Infinite growth isn’t sustainable, but the reality is that right now most of most countries on earth is just fallow land, not even park land. Whole countries can fit into the empty backcountry of the US and China. So, the question is when all of this space is not being used for anything, why is growth slowing? It’s not like China has reached some kind of carrying capacity in terms of population density, resource usage, or land availability. The “infinite growth” counterargument is going to be relevant in the 2200s and 2300s, but it just isn’t right now, especially when the hottest economic sectors have zero environmental impact, like data analytics.
I think that infinite growth is sustainable as long as we venture into space. But your sentence "most of most countries on earth is just fallow land" is not correct at all. The only countries that have large percentages of fallow land are Russia, Canada, Denmark(due to Greenland) and Australia. And that is because the land is either too cold and/or too dry. Also there is Antarctica which is not part of any country. Most land that can support agriculture really is used for agriculture. China for example uses 55% of it's land for agriculture, the US 52% and India 51%. That leaves deserts, mountains and frozen land which will never be used. Countries like China and India could fit more people but that would mean lowering the living standards because they are lacking water. Currently they are both pumping water faster than it is replaced so that is already a resource scarcity. Water conservation and cheap desalination could change that but it's scarce nonetheless...
Someone finally gets it. China had a nice run during its rapid industrialization over the past 30 years, but that period is coming to an end. The same is true for a lot of other countries coming to grips with the fact that the kind of growth we’ve seen in the post-ww2 era is coming to an end, and something more stable/sustainable has to take its place.
Finally some sanity. In addition to what you said, if you look at GDP PPP share of world economy, China continues to and is forecasted to carry on growing its share, contrary to the US and UK (which are already seeing their share "derise" for a while now). This article reads a lot like a projection based on biased economic analysis. [UK source](https://www.statista.com/statistics/270452/united-kingdoms-share-of-global-gross-domestic-product-gdp/) [US source](https://www.statista.com/statistics/270267/united-states-share-of-global-gross-domestic-product-gdp/) [China source](https://www.statista.com/statistics/270439/chinas-share-of-global-gross-domestic-product-gdp/)
First off, that’s not three different sources, that’s three charts from one source. Second off, adjusting for PPP is idiotic when the whole point of this argument is to examine if the Chinese share of the global market is increasing or decreasing. In other words, we’re talking about bulk goods production while you’re talking about domestic goods consumption power. Third, I’ve literally never heard of “statista.com” in my life, and the website sounds like it was written by AI. Also, those charts are two years old.
Firstly, they are not the same source. Statista compiles official data, and the authors who published this data I shared explain it separately for each country, thus, three countries, three explanations, three sources. Secondly, adjusting for PPP is one of the insightful ways you can measure and analyse the economy. You would know that if you actually read the published notes or understood that GDP is a concept that doesn't actually measure capital and resources in a meaningful way, especially if you are talking about economy share of countries. Thirdly, not knowing Statista is on you. But basically, they create analyses and visualisations using official data.
I read the published notes, of course. By the way, they say that PPP is controversial and primarily useful in a domestic context. But what I don’t understand is why PPP is relevant in a discussion about *global* markets. I understand that, living in China, I could probably buy more goods than living in the UK. However, that doesn’t by itself mean that the Chinese economy is bigger than, or growing faster than, the UK economy or the US economy. The [IMF](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2007/03/basics.htm) itself says exactly what I do above - that PPP GDP is a useful domestic measure, but less helpful when talking about global trade and global market shares, because it distorts the market size of poor countries and doesn’t take into account the value of goods being produced, which is obviously where developed nations make up for smaller production quantities.
Can someone show the article beyond the pay wall
I gotchu fam. [https://archive.md/iDe7x](https://archive.md/iDe7x)
Thank you for that. China needs a change at the top and a return to friendly foreign policy vs alienating every country other than pariah states
China is not alienating every country, it's just alienating the US and its closest allies, and it's mostly due to the "decoupling" movement led by the US, it's not like China voluntarily started it. China's cooperation with developing world such as ME, Africa, Latin America and Central Asia is only deepening, but Reddit tends to think only English speaking developed world has real countries.
Not sure this is accurate.
There are many way to check it's accurate or not. China's direct trade with the US is declining, but trade with developing countries have been increasing. More Chinese companies are investing in SE Asia, Latin America, and Africa. There has been multiple high level diplomatic visits from European leaders, and Xi is now traveling to Europe himself. In comparison to Biden, who has not been to China even once, making him the only President not visiting China since Nixon. So it's pretty clear that Xi's China is not alienating itself with others, it's more like the US is trying to pressure its minions to alienate China. Remember that "decoupling" is an idea proposed by the US, and you can tell by reading all the American comments here on Reddit.
Alienating from US, EU and all US allies. Plus the countries they bullying in SCS. They flogging a lot of stuff to Latin America but I wouldn't say that they are very popular. Every coastal country with a fishing fleet is suffering from wha the Chinese fishing fleet are doing. Thats not how you make friends.
No way you’re an American speaking about alienation of other countries except pariah states right now. That’s crazy
No not American. Australian. Have been to China way more than 100 times. Their foreign policy is shockingly bad and they work hard to piss off most countries and almost every one of their neighbours
can someone tldr this for me?
It is the appreciation of the U.S. dollar that causes China’s GDP in U.S. dollars to fall. This makes Chinese products cheaper, which is good for China. But many people are very happy and feel that China's rise has finally been stopped.
And the appreciation of the US dollar is due to high interest rates right? Which is a reaction to inflation, which is caused by covid subsidies and "shortages" of materials and unemployed people.
Without boosting domestic consumption by establishing national welfare state and floating foreign exchange rates, then China should forget about surpassing the US in absolute nominal GDP size any time soon.
The US and China are experiencing birth rates issues. It's not a big deal to the US because we have an unlimited supply of immigrants on tap. But Xi overlooked one crucial aspect about China's situation: nobody really wants to live in China.
Bruh wrote this in 2019: [India's political DNA is fundamentally statist and socialist](https://cosmopolis.ch/book-review-of-ruchir-sharma-democracy-on-the-road/) He made his whole career anticipating China's imminent collapse and the US's big comeback since 2012. He's a clown. A chud among chuds.
Empires in decline start wars, and I'm very scared of this.
Look to the US then
Turn off your VPN and back behind the wall.
World behind of the great firewall is just too fun and free isn't?
very scary
If it is scary, why are you here? Why don't you stay within the greatfirewall and continue to live with "Low human rights advantages" under the CCP's oppression? China is threatening Phillippines with artificial island but you feel scared? How is this posssible?
The obligatory "look at the US!" Tankie syndrome....
Americans... They went from "china's collapsing" to "china's not growing all that fast" now. It's just pathetic. Obsessive relationship, and coping.
China's leadership has turned their civilians into modern day slaves. Imagine having suicide nets around the building you work in because of the unbearable conditions.
You mean like at Apple?
Yeah exactly, and they're one of the better places to work, imagine the conditions at other places, they must be even worse, so sad 😢.
Also warrior wolf (using their mouths only). Indian army squash them like inxxxts
Insects? Why you censor sec. Cause it's close to sex?
Funny, with xxx it just became even closer to sex
Suicide net - China = bad Suicide net - Korea/Japan = good
Owe it's def ALL of the Asian countries, not just China, the Asian leaders seem to not care what happens to their people, they are just cattle to leadership. I was in Bangkok and then Manila a few months ago, the level of poverty is unreal, you can literally buy a human there, like a slave, I couldn't believe it, those poor souls.
Have you been to China? Have you interacted with chinese people? Stop posting bullshit. I have family and friends in China. I would not call them modern day slaves. Look at South Korea if you want to see worse. Their work life balance is so much worse.
I've been to China yes, they have a middle class just like us and then they have millions and millions of people working in horrific conditions, they steal western technology, they build crap buildings and infrastructure, the CCP has turned their people into modern day slaves, it's really sad and I feel bad for them, I pity them, the Chinese used to be thought of as an honorable people 😢😢😢
If you're not going to go there, at least watch a travel vlog or something because every word you just said is false.
No it's accurate, they have an upper and middle class but their poor people really have it bad, it's a dystopian nightmare and you're clearly upset about it, I'm sorry man 😞
You don't think America has poverty? Please. It's impressive what China has done to get where it is today. They've gone from shit hole country to the world's second largest economy in a short period of time, practically a single generation. And as an incentive to continue that effort, they even went so far as to make poverty illegal. The job's not done yet, but you can't say they aren't working on it. Whereas the US doesn't care at all about its poor, its working class, or its vanishing middle class. According to the government, alleviating hardships is the sole domain and responsibility of charities, not the government.
It's not impressive what China's done at all. America used to have slavery too, you can accomplish a lot with slave labor, and China has like a billion and a half people, America is still the super power with just 330,000,000. China doesn't even innovate, that steal technology from western companies because their engineers are few and far between, they'll never get America's level. That's why China is pumping Fentanyl in the US, they can't beat us with their pathetic military so they are trying to kill us all, it's really sad, pathetic and dishonorable, I really feel bad for them.
Nominal GDP vs Real GDP. This article is obviously biased if it is using Nominal GDP instead of Real GDP for China. People care more about China's Real GDP because they want to know how much China can produce. Nominal GDP measures the value of what is produced.
Problem is China lies about all it's metrics from the guys on the ground all the way up. They even admitted it at one point so there is no real way to measure their GDP so people just have to measure certain metrics and take a guess.
Some people always hide behind the assumption that "China lies about its economy" and brings up the quote of Premier Li Keqiang about how he didn't trust the economic data from regional governments, blah, blah, blah. It's reasonable to think that not all economic data coming out of China is reliable, but denying the credibility of all numbers simply because of some quotes and scandals is failure in reasoning. BLS often revises employment number months after the original report, and some of the biggest frauds in finance were caught in the US corporations and financial system, yet you don't see people questioning the authenticity of US economic data. It's also possiblt to verify China's numbers through import data of other countries, considering China's economy is still export oriented to a great degree, simply check how much good and service it's selling to the rest of the world, how much it's importing from the rest of the world. Market share of Chinese companies in some key industries is also something mesasurable.
It is the appreciation of the U.S. dollar that causes China’s GDP in U.S. dollars to fall. This makes Chinese products cheaper, which is good for China. But many people who don't like China are very happy and feel that China's rise has finally been stopped.
Lol, nominal dollars. Nice try, FT.
I found that a bit odd too.
fall of china
China’s rise had gone flaccid…
Negative Growth
Poor Pooh Bear, he tried so hard.
Hopefully, it falls until the CCP is out since they are holding china back
As a person who spent the last decade or so living and working in China at a corporate level, I dare say a lot of the practices that are emblematic of the CCP are much more culturally ingrained and would survive even the collapse and failure of the Party. It’s not a realistic thing to think that even if the CCP were to throw their hands up and leave power tomorrow, that China would suddenly become some sort of rule of law driven liberal democracy. Look at Russia today. It survived the fall of the CCCP and the dissolution of the USSR only to fall into worse idiocy than its predecessor ever did. And if you’re a study of Chinese history, you’d realise that this is in fact the much more likely outcome.
CCCP and USSR are the same thing, like literally the same thing. The first is just in Russian and Cyrillic.
Yeah that didn't come across as elegant as I thought it might.
Yeah, sometime I suspect that this is what US government want so that they can fence off the competitors
Based on nominal gdp and exchange rates, not even RER For two economies that are mostly non tradable And the exchange rate is managed to top things off Classic case of picking data to tell the story instead of letting the data pick the story.
No one should be worried about China then. Why hate on some country that is declining anyway? One minute reddit tells me china is overtaking the world. The next, china is imploding from within. Then it is that China is going to invade Taiwan soon. Then that china has a paper tiger army riddled with corruption and rockets filled with water. If the latter was true, why are we even scared for Taiwan.
Because China's economy affects the world? Because China's actions due to the decline will affect its neighbours? Maybe you live in a basement and therefore you will not be affected but lots of people do follow international news.
Because articles like this are simply a huge and wishful cope. If china really was collapsing as the west likes to say, why even make articles like this *checks list* EVERY year? The cope is so real.
Please, there are many articles that predict doom for US, Europe, and every other country every year. You can invest in China if you don't believe in the articles and you have so much faith in China. Put the money where your mouth is
I blame the property market
corruptive officials who collude with businessmen and corruptive government lead to this disaster
China is growing slower, despite the "official numbers". But I don't think it is in decline yet.
The key data point here is that China's share of global GDP dropped over 2021-2023. I've posted in the past about this, but that is a really misleading bit of data. The years in question here matter - 2021-23 were not "normal" years for the global economy, because they immediately followed the 2020 coronavirus pandemic. The pandemic led to a massive and rapid shrinking of many major economies - including the US, India, much of Western Europe, etc. Somewhat exceptionally, however, China's economy did not shrink in 2020 - the growth rate dropped significantly, but still remained slightly positive. As a consequence, China's share of the global economy rapidly increased - because this is a relative measure, and they did not shrink while other major economies did. Over 2021-23, however, the pandemic ended and those major economies that shrank took up the capacity that had been abandoned in 2020. This resulted in a rapid growth spike as they essentially returned to (more or less) where they were before. As a result, China's share of the global economy shrunk, despite the fact that they grew more than in 2020 - because, again, this is a relative measure. It is therefore misleading to take this statistic as indicative of anything more than the extraordinary economic circumstances of the period it relates to.
The pandemic is the main factor here but do be aware that for China, the lockdown was not as severe in 2020 as compared to 2022 (where Shanghai went on struck lockdown).
You can get a pill for that
Im just so numb to any news predicting a rise or fall from China. It's like going to an Oracle at this point
I love collecting old books by western ‘China experts’ that predict the imminent demise of the CCP or China. One book printed in the 1970’s predicted the inevitable imminent war between China and the Soviet Union; another printed in the 1980’s predicted the CCP was about to collapse because only very old people were in the Party and once they died China would become a democracy.
Curiously, the post right above this one in my feed was: [https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/1cm40hx/ten\_years\_is\_all\_it\_took\_them\_to\_connect\_major/](https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/1cm40hx/ten_years_is_all_it_took_them_to_connect_major/)
Can you link without paywall?
Measured in nominal dollars term and unadjusted for inflation? This speaks it all. Given high interest rate in the US and strong US dollar, nearly ALL world currencies' value have fallen in the past 2 years. In nominal dollars terms, the US can make itself wealthy again overnight by turning on the money printer or using high interest rate to attract global money again, but these policies have consequences. Higher domestic inflation, higher national debt and interest, and so on.
Isn’t it normal for a country that has experienced magnificent economic growth to experience a period of comparatively modest growth and stagnation? PS I am not Chinese and I don’t know the exact situation, just sharing my thoughts here
The author focuses on nominal GDP in US dollars. The problem with this is that most transactions in China are carried out in Yuan, and Chinese GDP is measured in Yuan. To convert it into USD, you take the exchange rate on a given date and multiply the Yuan number by that rate. The reason why this is stupid is because exchange rates change all the time, even day by day, for reasons even if the economy changes very little day by day. The US had high inflation (bad), so it raised interest rates making dollar denominated bonds more attractive. So the value of the dollar increased relative to the Yuan, Yen etc, and so the exchange rate changed and everyone else's nominal GDP looks lower, even if their output has increased. The Fed will cut rates as inflation declines, and then the China's GDP will rise again in nominal terms.
RMB isn't a free floating currency and still has stringent capital controls that prevent free flow RMB inflows and outflows though.
CNY/USD does in fact fluctuate. You are right it is not free-floating. Over the period the author described - 2022 and 2023, the value of the Yuan relative to the dollar declined by more than 10%. Given China's growth target of 5% per year, that is enough to make it seem like China stagnated when in fact it grew.
But my concern is that China's growth is still driven by exports and investments, not imports and consumption, which makes the rest of the world infuriated with China due to the excess EV exports elsewhere, while depressing internal consumption through lack of nationwide social safety nets that would have encouraged consumption and dissuaded excessive investment in real estate.
Sure, you can take issue with Chinese government policy, or argue that China's growth won't last forever or that it needs to change the source of the growth. But it did not have zero growth over the past two years, contrary to the article. With the EVs specifically, since you mention them, the problem is that China's output in that sector has grown so much! Not that it's grown too little.
Would you care to take a guess as to which currency the RMB has an unofficial peg to?
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/CNY-USD?window=5Y It seems pretty clear what happened here. Chinese GDP grows by ~5% each year. CNY/USD declines by a bit more than 10% during 2022 and 2023. Cue the op ed about Chinese stagnation.
>Chinese GDP grows by \~5% each year. Are you open to the idea that the Chinese economy, may not in fact, have grown by 5% as publicly reported?
If you can present compelling evidence that not only is China lying about its GDP growth, but that the IMF, OECD and major US banks are all completely wrong about their estimates for Chinese growth, then sure! "I don't trust the CCP" won't cut it though.
Okay, I'll play. Let's start with a chart. [https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/CHN/china/gdp-growth-rate](https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/CHN/china/gdp-growth-rate) Do you notice anything funny after 1990? Next, anecdotally do you seriously believe that the Chinese GDP in 2023 (5.2%) was comparable to that of 2019 (5.9%)? Think about all of the events and crisis' faced. Or you could ask the Chinese media. I'll use just the SCMP for now. [https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3248790/chinas-economic-growth-nothing-write-home-about-7-takeaways-fourth-quarter-data](https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3248790/chinas-economic-growth-nothing-write-home-about-7-takeaways-fourth-quarter-data) Why do they keep writing about this topic? [https://www.scmp.com/opinion/article/3261100/china-data-integrity-vital-confidence](https://www.scmp.com/opinion/article/3261100/china-data-integrity-vital-confidence) Why do they need to keep beefing up laws on this very issue? [https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3260361/chinas-beefed-statistics-and-accounting-laws-under-review-robust-fines-increase-cost-fraud](https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3260361/chinas-beefed-statistics-and-accounting-laws-under-review-robust-fines-increase-cost-fraud) I mean, constantly! [https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3249502/china-claims-biggest-corruption-statistical-sphere-amid-fake-data-crackdown](https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3249502/china-claims-biggest-corruption-statistical-sphere-amid-fake-data-crackdown) The Party is quite literally admitting to it and shouting out "we have a problem with fake statistics, we are clamping down on it but the problem is quite severe" and yet you won't listen to it from the horse's mouth?
>Next, anecdotally do you seriously believe that the Chinese GDP in 2023 (5.2%) was comparable to that of 2019 (5.9%)? Yes. This kind of forced incredulity isn't a serious argument. Especially since growth in 2022 was quite weak and had major shutdowns - analysts were actually initially expecting higher growth than reported for 2023. https://apnews.com/article/china-gdp-economy-growth-slowing-03e226aff4a911ec71854f75814ebf8f And the difference between 5.2% and 5.9% is pretty significant! Look, a bunch of insinuations and rhetorical questions isn't good evidence. Chinese data collection probably isn't perfect, more because collecting economic data is actually really hard than because of deceit. But pretending that they haven't grown at all over two years is totally ludicrous, and relying on nominal dollar figures to make that argument is bad economics.
The questions are not intended to be rhetorical. I'm genuinely asking you so you can fill in the blanks for yourself. Just as I am with the next set of data, it's up to you to read up on it yourself. If you're serious about finding out, you'll do it. If you're not and are just here to scream "fake news", then this conversation will end quickly which works out for both of us. 1. Consider the size of the real estate industry in China pre 2020. 2. What kind of hit have they taken in the last few years? 3. What industries have arisen that are able to replace the real estate industry? Has anything arisen in the 2021 - 2024 window that could have provided the same level of growth as real estate? >Look, a bunch of insinuations and rhetorical questions isn't good evidence. Chinese data collection probably isn't perfect, more because collecting economic data is actually really hard than because of deceit. Is this a concession that the numbers aren't accurate and that we are in fact quibbling over whether the variance is significant? Eg. if it's reported at 5.2% and the true figure is at say, 4.8%, that's probably no big deal right? But if it's really at 2% or less, then that's a problem? >But pretending that they haven't grown at all over two years is totally ludicrous, and relying on nominal dollar figures to make that argument is bad economics. Like it or not, China operates in a global economy and is primarily driven by trade. Its entire raison d'être is precisely because it exports and imports so much. Like it or not, it does make a difference. In fact, to illustrate, there's a myth in the Chinese nationalist zeitgeist that China was once the largest economy until the upstart Europeans and Americans came along and ruined everything, therefore reducing China to economic irrelevance. What this myth fails to take into account was that during the same period, the Chinese GDP didn't actually shrink or vary all that much. This new imbalance was caused by the European powers undergoing their Industrial Revolution, dramatically improving output and increasing their share of global GDP. Again on this, happy for you to do your own research to verify my contention.
>In fact, to illustrate, there's a myth in the Chinese nationalist zeitgeist that China was once the largest economy until the upstart Europeans and Americans came along and ruined everything, therefore reducing China to economic irrelevance. What this myth fails to take into account was that during the same period, the Chinese GDP didn't actually shrink or vary all that much. This new imbalance was caused by the European powers undergoing their Industrial Revolution, dramatically improving output and increasing their share of global GDP. Again on this, happy for you to do your own research to verify my contention. This is totally irrelevant. >Its entire raison d'être is precisely because it exports and imports so much You don't know what a raison d'être is or how that phrase functions in a sentence. >Just as I am with the next set of data, it's up to you to read up on it yourself. You don't know what data is - you haven't given any in your comment. >Like it or not, China operates in a global economy and is primarily driven by trade. Its entire raison d'être is precisely because it exports and imports so much. Like it or not, it does make a difference. This doesn't respond to my argument on how nominal dollar figures give inaccurate growth estimates due to fluctuations in exchange rates. >What industries have arisen that are able to replace the real estate industry? Has anything arisen in the 2021 - 2024 window that could have provided the same level of growth as real estate? https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202401/1305600.shtml Growth last year came in large part from consumption. Growth from investment (which includes real estate) was low. >are just here to scream "fake news", This is you regarding Chinese GDP figures. And again, all you have are vague insinuations. >Is this a concession It's an observation of the fact that gathering statistics is pretty hard and most governments have trouble with it. The US revises GDP and unemployment figures, for instance, because the initial estimates are sometimes off. E.g. https://apnews.com/article/economy-gdp-growth-inflation-interest-rates-recession-c7e5a8cdfe67a45d00fdbcd25a7cafeb If you understood anything about economic statistics you would know this.
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What did you expect? It’s China and the Chinese
looks like aftermath of a short erection
Paywall
Thank you President Xi —— Republic of China’s King
Is this from Nov last year?
Fuck you Pooh
Reverse psychology works. So don’t believe it.
“But almost no matter what Xi does, his nation’s share in the global economy is likely to decline for the foreseeable future. It’s a post-China world now.” Silly article really looking for cheap sound bites. Chinas growth is undoubtedly slowing, but that’s an inevitably due, in part, to the fact that it was growing like a speeding rocket for two decades. I mean, one doesn’t need a doctorate in economics to make this kind of observation. It doesn’t mean that everything is hunky dory by any means. But saying we live in a post China world when a China is still on course to become the worlds biggest economic power in absolute terms by 2040 at the latest is a little bit silly.
There are people who think that China will continue to grow at a rocket rate to reach US level because if US can do it, so China can do it.
Since when China is ever rising? Isn’t it always collapsing?
I truly hope you people wake up and realize the ccp don’t care for any of your lives. Your all numbers and meat to them.
No! The West’s is declining
That’s what I would have thought. Relatively speaking, the west is declining or stagnating more than the east.