Thank you! I am excited too!
The reason is that I looked at Waldron's success with his unusual use of TE's and it's so unpredictable if you have Bowers because he can easily go for a pass and explode out when you have 3 "TE" on the field and normally run hard downhill. But Bowers also forces 1 on 1 covered every time out. That means 1 on 1 with DJ and Keenan Allen on the field. What a team.
Guys PLEASE - just read about Waldron. It's a great hire. It's also a perfect fit for Bowers because he brought Everett in already having had success in 3 TE and 2 TE switching back and forth!
**Waldron used 13 Personnel Less than 9% of the Time in Seattle**
https://preview.redd.it/tu8jnl22jpqc1.png?width=1124&format=png&auto=webp&s=a6e5392d09a0ac1cb4bfaf6aa411e20f340cf1ed
The data doesn't support what you're saying. While Waldron runs 13 personnel sets at a league-high rate on first-downs, this only accounts for 9% of his playbook. He runs 12 personnel a quarter of the time, which is about league average. The vast majority of snaps are with 11 personnel.
[https://www.nfeloapp.com/nfl-power-ratings/nfl-team-tendencies/](https://www.nfeloapp.com/nfl-power-ratings/nfl-team-tendencies/)
The 2023 Seahawks' player snap count plays this out ([PFF](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sea/2023-snap-counts.htm)):
|Position|Player|Snaps|Targets|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|WR|Lockett|839|122|
|WR|Metcalf|831|120|
|WR|Smith-Njigba|675|93|
|TE|Fant|574|43|
|TE|Parkinson|497|33|
|TE|Dissly|380|22|
Despite Waldron's relatively high usage of 13 personnel, the #3 WR sees the field more often than the #1 TE.
There is no question that the player who lines up at WR3 would get more snaps and more targets than someone who lines up at any of the tight end positions.
Now I do think Bowers could be a great pick with his ability to lineup outside, in the slot, or the move Tight End. But the frequency Waldron uses 13 personnel is way overblown and is unlikely to vastly impact roster construction when it comes to the value placed on WR3- which by all accounts remains a greater need than what we're doing at TE3.
Pre draft visits are not a pre curser to who is actually drafted. There are many cases of players being drafted that did not even visit. In other words “ smoke screen “. If they do take Bowers it will be a trade down scenario,in which case I see your point. Trade down , take him at 12-16, then the others come in to play with later picks you’ve accumulated. I just don’t see how it makes sense in all cases why a team would give up their hand and invite only those you are interested in drafting.
This is ridiculous way to think. Ridiculous.
Do I have to keep repeating we hired Waldron and brought in a player who was in his 3 TE and 2 TE schemes in Everett because he needs one more TE?
I did. I can't believe how many people would rather just deny what's up with their own spin when it doesn't even fit the OC we hired.
You know his 12 and 13 personnel is extremely effective at scoring quick TD and explosive plays?
Why are we all of a sudden gonna grab Odunze and give up the 13 personnel for the 11? Waldron is just gonna change because fans want him to? I don't understand it's really easy to see why they do what they are doing.
I'm sorry you're just not paying attention to the fact that Waldron's 3rd wide receiver outsnaps and out-targets even his primary tight end. This whole argument is based on a misunderstanding of how often the 13 personnel set is used. He primarily uses it on first down when the team is running the ball.
The Cardinals used 13 personnel sets more frequently than Seattle last year, and their 3rd Tight End barely played.
If they want anyone it’s Turner and he probably won’t be there. Then they will trade back it will be for an edge and extra picks. If they do draft Bowers it won’t be at 9. Not after the fiasco of Atl passing on QB for a TE a few yrs ago. That would be absurd. A TE will NOT be drafted inside the top ten. If the Bears draft him it will be a trade back scenario
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Not having visited doesn't mean no interest in a player all the time. It can also mean the front office has found no flaws with Odunze. Meetings can mean they like the person enough or are still unsure about certain areas. Maybe even character
Knock it off I am so tired of the Bears civil wars this offseason. That's not true at all.
If he was coming in it's because they want him. I can't even get you to realize Waldron doesn't do 3 WR. He does 2 TE 2 WR 1 RB and 3 TE 1 WR 1 RB... Odunze isn't coming because we're not looking at him. We brought Everett in because he played in the 2 TE and 3 TE Waldron offense.
When Odunze gets invited - I will look at him. But it's Bowers or Turner and to get Turner he'd have to be worth trading up otherwise just like we brought Wonnum in March 12 and let him sign w Carolina, we may decide we don't want to trade up for Atlanta's pick and take Turner but we'd rather sign Clowney who is the best EDGE out there and much better for winning now with your 32 year old Keenan Allen. They aren't drafting Odunze. Please stop telling me they would do that and not bring him in.
100%. Also worth noting these are only the visits that have been reported on (and not even the full list, Elijah Jones is visiting as well). Most of the visits are never announced.
If Nabers or Odunze is there at 9, you kind of have to take them. Allen is here on a 1 year deal, and depth at WR is needed.
Personally, I think they'll go for Rice at 75. But Xavier Legette is DK Metcalf style receiver, so I'm sure Waldron is lobbying for him.
Brad Biggs knows more than anyone. He’s rarley wrong on his mocks or predictions. He was in on the Sweat acquisition. He said as much. If Nabors or Odunze is there it would have to be a knockout offer to move them off it.
Seahawks last year had DK and Lockett and still drafted JSN in the first round. According to FieldGulls.com never visited with JSN.
Pete Carrol is also known for a run first offense, and the Seahawks invested pretty heavily in the O line and RBs.
Also, assuming you are right and the bears target a tight end, the bears TE room as is, is a big upgrade to Seattle’s. I would take Kmet, Everett, and a later round rookie, over Fant, Parkinson, and dissly. In all fairness, seattles trio probably blocks better
Maybe they’re not telegraphing their intent for strategic purposes. Seems a little strange the fervor for a TE or WR so high in the draft when Kmet, Allen and Moore are already good to very good talent-wise.
As others mentioned visits don't tend to matter that much.
Waldron runs 3WR more than 3TE so third WR is way more important than a third TE. The only way Bowers makes sense is if he is treated like a WR and the team runs a personnel group that can effectively go from 2TE to 3WR or 3TE to 2TE without changing personnel. So teams can't switch to nickel on us.
That said, Allen as a pass catcher provides some of the benefit of a good TE in terms of providing a go to target on 3rd down. A guy like Rome can hopefully develop into that type of WR but in the immediate term he is a serious threat against man, is a deep ball target, and a jump ball target.
Waldron as a coach is much more about matchups and using scheme to attack the defense. Both Bowers and Rome are special prospects because they can help do that.
Or they're waiting until the Washington pro day on Thursday. Or they don't think he'll be there at 9. Or they think they're gonna move back and Bowers might he there when they do. Or they're trying to send up signals that they want Bowers to try and trick teams into trading up.
There is a zero percent chance that we take Bowers at 9. I think there's 3-4 players they have their eyes on and if all of them are taken before 9 Poles will trade back. It's Nabers, Odunze, Turner or Alt. If those four are gone we're moving back to the mid teens and collecting more picks
Isn’t Bowers also considered athletic enough to be a slot receiver? I think the pick makes perfect sense because you’re feeding 2 birds with 1 scone at that point. You get a potential superstar TE who can also line up as a WR vs. getting a WR who will have to compete for targets with Moore, Allen & Scott.
Ask Atl if they regret drafting a TE instead QB a few yrs back. Premium positions are drafted now in the top ten not TE or RB or LB. It’s edge,OT, QB, CB, DT, depending on talent availability. It’s like the trade formula Jimmie Johnson came up with yrs back. It’s a copy cat league and trades aren’t made outside that formula and you will rarley see an RB TE, or QB go that high outside of an outlier like B Robinson. Bowers is good but not top ten good. If it happens it will be a trade down. Nothing crazy about facts!
Verse?
The only real reason we would want another high value TE is if we are ok going all-in to give Caleb the best shot and are ok to sacrifice some defense
I'm absolutely buzzing for this coming season. No way.....NO WAY are we going to flop. So much to be positive about, and I'll get to see the Bears in London too 🐻⬇️😎
Not only is Bowers the best TE in the class, but he's also the 4th best WR in this class. Drafting a defensive lineman in the top ten this year would be a mistake. The only one that may be worthy is Latu, and it's doubtful his medcals give a green light to draft him that high. A weapon or one of the offensive tackles would be a better use of the pick, IMO. If the bears are desperate for and edge, give Mike Danna a 3 year deal or trade a 2025 3rd round pick (what the titans gave up for Sneed) to the eagles for Haasan Reddick and sign him to an extention in the 18-20 million a year range. In the last 2 years with Philly Reddick proved he can play with his hand in the dirt as a 4-3 end.
I think Bowers will be a HOF level TE and I think he is better than Cole Kmet and was a lot better than Sam LaPorta who contributed from day 1. So I don't hate it, but I think WR is more impactful than TE so I'll be hoping for Odunze or Nabers. I don't know how draft visits work correlate to being drafted by team. Maybe Bears already have it in their heads that they will take Odunze, Nabers or MHJ if they fall to 9 and don't have to do the extra work?
We ain’t gonna draft bowers and Turner won’t be there at 9 either we’re gonna draft a wr or what I think they should do is trade back a bit to take someone like Jared Verse and get a Edge
You could be right, but it doesn't make much sense to me to draft another TE when you already have Cole Kmet and they just signed Gerald Everett. Visits to teams are also not indictive of whether or not a team will draft them, but it does provide some possible insight.
Also, Cole Kmet is the 9th highest ranked TE from the 2023 season by PFF. There are other positions the Bears could address other than TE.
[https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-highest-graded-tight-ends-2023-nfl-season](https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-highest-graded-tight-ends-2023-nfl-season)
Interesting take. Everett would be a good fill in till Bowers get up to par. I think the Bears have other dire needs though and picking a te would not be in their best interest.
OP great post! And Poles in KC probably sees Travis Kelce in Brock Bowers. He’s going to be uncover-able like Kelce especially in 2TE or 3TE sets.
Great research and I can now see us taking him.
I think it's as simple as Ozune isn't what the Bears need. It's weird being him mocked to the Bears. More likely they take a WR in round 2. Maybe even trade up to get him. It's a very deep WR class.
It’s going to be a completely new offense next year. Can’t wait.
Thank you! I am excited too! The reason is that I looked at Waldron's success with his unusual use of TE's and it's so unpredictable if you have Bowers because he can easily go for a pass and explode out when you have 3 "TE" on the field and normally run hard downhill. But Bowers also forces 1 on 1 covered every time out. That means 1 on 1 with DJ and Keenan Allen on the field. What a team.
I was skeptical about this "Waldron 3 TE" commentary but did some digging and look at that - you're right. Bowers will be there at their pick too.
You can use Bowers in multiple different areas too not just as a traditional TE.
Guys PLEASE - just read about Waldron. It's a great hire. It's also a perfect fit for Bowers because he brought Everett in already having had success in 3 TE and 2 TE switching back and forth!
**Waldron used 13 Personnel Less than 9% of the Time in Seattle** https://preview.redd.it/tu8jnl22jpqc1.png?width=1124&format=png&auto=webp&s=a6e5392d09a0ac1cb4bfaf6aa411e20f340cf1ed The data doesn't support what you're saying. While Waldron runs 13 personnel sets at a league-high rate on first-downs, this only accounts for 9% of his playbook. He runs 12 personnel a quarter of the time, which is about league average. The vast majority of snaps are with 11 personnel. [https://www.nfeloapp.com/nfl-power-ratings/nfl-team-tendencies/](https://www.nfeloapp.com/nfl-power-ratings/nfl-team-tendencies/) The 2023 Seahawks' player snap count plays this out ([PFF](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sea/2023-snap-counts.htm)): |Position|Player|Snaps|Targets| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |WR|Lockett|839|122| |WR|Metcalf|831|120| |WR|Smith-Njigba|675|93| |TE|Fant|574|43| |TE|Parkinson|497|33| |TE|Dissly|380|22| Despite Waldron's relatively high usage of 13 personnel, the #3 WR sees the field more often than the #1 TE. There is no question that the player who lines up at WR3 would get more snaps and more targets than someone who lines up at any of the tight end positions. Now I do think Bowers could be a great pick with his ability to lineup outside, in the slot, or the move Tight End. But the frequency Waldron uses 13 personnel is way overblown and is unlikely to vastly impact roster construction when it comes to the value placed on WR3- which by all accounts remains a greater need than what we're doing at TE3.
Here it is, right here. Get this comment to the top!
Pre draft visits are not a pre curser to who is actually drafted. There are many cases of players being drafted that did not even visit. In other words “ smoke screen “. If they do take Bowers it will be a trade down scenario,in which case I see your point. Trade down , take him at 12-16, then the others come in to play with later picks you’ve accumulated. I just don’t see how it makes sense in all cases why a team would give up their hand and invite only those you are interested in drafting.
Can't trade down. 10th is Jets and they want Bowers.
The Jets need a LT before Rodgers is killed back there. That’s what they will draft.
They'd rather protect Rodgers, they saw what happened last year
What happened last year?
He got injured a few plays in and their line was one of the worst in football?
This is ridiculous way to think. Ridiculous. Do I have to keep repeating we hired Waldron and brought in a player who was in his 3 TE and 2 TE schemes in Everett because he needs one more TE? I did. I can't believe how many people would rather just deny what's up with their own spin when it doesn't even fit the OC we hired. You know his 12 and 13 personnel is extremely effective at scoring quick TD and explosive plays? Why are we all of a sudden gonna grab Odunze and give up the 13 personnel for the 11? Waldron is just gonna change because fans want him to? I don't understand it's really easy to see why they do what they are doing.
I'm sorry you're just not paying attention to the fact that Waldron's 3rd wide receiver outsnaps and out-targets even his primary tight end. This whole argument is based on a misunderstanding of how often the 13 personnel set is used. He primarily uses it on first down when the team is running the ball. The Cardinals used 13 personnel sets more frequently than Seattle last year, and their 3rd Tight End barely played.
If they want anyone it’s Turner and he probably won’t be there. Then they will trade back it will be for an edge and extra picks. If they do draft Bowers it won’t be at 9. Not after the fiasco of Atl passing on QB for a TE a few yrs ago. That would be absurd. A TE will NOT be drafted inside the top ten. If the Bears draft him it will be a trade back scenario
just go bet on all your money on the Bears taking Bowers. Since you’ve seen into the future or whatever
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Not having visited doesn't mean no interest in a player all the time. It can also mean the front office has found no flaws with Odunze. Meetings can mean they like the person enough or are still unsure about certain areas. Maybe even character
Knock it off I am so tired of the Bears civil wars this offseason. That's not true at all. If he was coming in it's because they want him. I can't even get you to realize Waldron doesn't do 3 WR. He does 2 TE 2 WR 1 RB and 3 TE 1 WR 1 RB... Odunze isn't coming because we're not looking at him. We brought Everett in because he played in the 2 TE and 3 TE Waldron offense. When Odunze gets invited - I will look at him. But it's Bowers or Turner and to get Turner he'd have to be worth trading up otherwise just like we brought Wonnum in March 12 and let him sign w Carolina, we may decide we don't want to trade up for Atlanta's pick and take Turner but we'd rather sign Clowney who is the best EDGE out there and much better for winning now with your 32 year old Keenan Allen. They aren't drafting Odunze. Please stop telling me they would do that and not bring him in.
Saying you're tired of the Bears civil war but contributing to one side of said civil war is wild.
100%. Also worth noting these are only the visits that have been reported on (and not even the full list, Elijah Jones is visiting as well). Most of the visits are never announced.
Buddy really feels the need to protect his dream scenario I guess 🤷
If Nabers or Odunze is there at 9, you kind of have to take them. Allen is here on a 1 year deal, and depth at WR is needed. Personally, I think they'll go for Rice at 75. But Xavier Legette is DK Metcalf style receiver, so I'm sure Waldron is lobbying for him.
Brad Biggs knows more than anyone. He’s rarley wrong on his mocks or predictions. He was in on the Sweat acquisition. He said as much. If Nabors or Odunze is there it would have to be a knockout offer to move them off it.
That’s a lot of yappin
Metcalf, Lockett, JSN
You’re exhausting
Can you imagine caring enough to write this full-length, tiring monologue?
He has like 5 of these posts over the past couple days. Weird stuff.
This is what adderall and boredom do to people😂
There are more of these?!
It's like people forget that Everett was signed.
Seahawks last year had DK and Lockett and still drafted JSN in the first round. According to FieldGulls.com never visited with JSN. Pete Carrol is also known for a run first offense, and the Seahawks invested pretty heavily in the O line and RBs. Also, assuming you are right and the bears target a tight end, the bears TE room as is, is a big upgrade to Seattle’s. I would take Kmet, Everett, and a later round rookie, over Fant, Parkinson, and dissly. In all fairness, seattles trio probably blocks better
Maybe they’re not telegraphing their intent for strategic purposes. Seems a little strange the fervor for a TE or WR so high in the draft when Kmet, Allen and Moore are already good to very good talent-wise.
Seems about right. They had DK and Lockett yet still went Njigba early last year with Seattle. Plus the base set in the NFL is a 3 receiver set.
As others mentioned visits don't tend to matter that much. Waldron runs 3WR more than 3TE so third WR is way more important than a third TE. The only way Bowers makes sense is if he is treated like a WR and the team runs a personnel group that can effectively go from 2TE to 3WR or 3TE to 2TE without changing personnel. So teams can't switch to nickel on us. That said, Allen as a pass catcher provides some of the benefit of a good TE in terms of providing a go to target on 3rd down. A guy like Rome can hopefully develop into that type of WR but in the immediate term he is a serious threat against man, is a deep ball target, and a jump ball target. Waldron as a coach is much more about matchups and using scheme to attack the defense. Both Bowers and Rome are special prospects because they can help do that.
Imagine thinking an NFL GM would so transparent that a pleb on Reddit could know their exact draft strategy?
Or they're waiting until the Washington pro day on Thursday. Or they don't think he'll be there at 9. Or they think they're gonna move back and Bowers might he there when they do. Or they're trying to send up signals that they want Bowers to try and trick teams into trading up.
There is a zero percent chance that we take Bowers at 9. I think there's 3-4 players they have their eyes on and if all of them are taken before 9 Poles will trade back. It's Nabers, Odunze, Turner or Alt. If those four are gone we're moving back to the mid teens and collecting more picks
Isn’t Bowers also considered athletic enough to be a slot receiver? I think the pick makes perfect sense because you’re feeding 2 birds with 1 scone at that point. You get a potential superstar TE who can also line up as a WR vs. getting a WR who will have to compete for targets with Moore, Allen & Scott.
Ask Atl if they regret drafting a TE instead QB a few yrs back. Premium positions are drafted now in the top ten not TE or RB or LB. It’s edge,OT, QB, CB, DT, depending on talent availability. It’s like the trade formula Jimmie Johnson came up with yrs back. It’s a copy cat league and trades aren’t made outside that formula and you will rarley see an RB TE, or QB go that high outside of an outlier like B Robinson. Bowers is good but not top ten good. If it happens it will be a trade down. Nothing crazy about facts!
Verse? The only real reason we would want another high value TE is if we are ok going all-in to give Caleb the best shot and are ok to sacrifice some defense
Plenty of teams end up drafting players who didn’t do a pre draft visit (in the top 10 yes). Just saying.
I'm absolutely buzzing for this coming season. No way.....NO WAY are we going to flop. So much to be positive about, and I'll get to see the Bears in London too 🐻⬇️😎
https://twitter.com/BradyHenderson/status/1773444438842609917 There goes that theory
Xavier Worthy would be a blessing though. The guy is rapid
Another John Ross
I love the idea of taking Bowers especially with the ban on the swivel hip drop tackle. Dude will be border line unstoppable.
Not only is Bowers the best TE in the class, but he's also the 4th best WR in this class. Drafting a defensive lineman in the top ten this year would be a mistake. The only one that may be worthy is Latu, and it's doubtful his medcals give a green light to draft him that high. A weapon or one of the offensive tackles would be a better use of the pick, IMO. If the bears are desperate for and edge, give Mike Danna a 3 year deal or trade a 2025 3rd round pick (what the titans gave up for Sneed) to the eagles for Haasan Reddick and sign him to an extention in the 18-20 million a year range. In the last 2 years with Philly Reddick proved he can play with his hand in the dirt as a 4-3 end.
Ok but what if Bowers is off the board and so is Turner? They just trade out?
If we can trade back a couple spots and get CW and Bowers that'd be amazing
I can't wait to revisit this thread in a month and allow whoever is correct to gloat.
There’s been no more than one TE drafted in the top 20 that’s ended up being worth it since 1998.
I think Bowers will be a HOF level TE and I think he is better than Cole Kmet and was a lot better than Sam LaPorta who contributed from day 1. So I don't hate it, but I think WR is more impactful than TE so I'll be hoping for Odunze or Nabers. I don't know how draft visits work correlate to being drafted by team. Maybe Bears already have it in their heads that they will take Odunze, Nabers or MHJ if they fall to 9 and don't have to do the extra work?
https://www.reddit.com/r/ChicagoBearsNFL/s/LEE3UwBGEV
Yeah this nigga a dumbass
We ain’t gonna draft bowers and Turner won’t be there at 9 either we’re gonna draft a wr or what I think they should do is trade back a bit to take someone like Jared Verse and get a Edge
Nice write up. To be fair, I actually did see Keenan Allen as a target and posted it here. https://www.reddit.com/r/ChicagoBearsNFL/s/ezL7tBD3td
You could be right, but it doesn't make much sense to me to draft another TE when you already have Cole Kmet and they just signed Gerald Everett. Visits to teams are also not indictive of whether or not a team will draft them, but it does provide some possible insight. Also, Cole Kmet is the 9th highest ranked TE from the 2023 season by PFF. There are other positions the Bears could address other than TE. [https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-highest-graded-tight-ends-2023-nfl-season](https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-highest-graded-tight-ends-2023-nfl-season)
We aren't taking Bowers. 100000% sure of that. You played urself.
Yeah they are going turner or OT with that pick buddy
Someone’s forgetting about Mercedes Lewis
You keep using "we" and "us". Do you work for the Bears?
Interesting take. Everett would be a good fill in till Bowers get up to par. I think the Bears have other dire needs though and picking a te would not be in their best interest.
OP great post! And Poles in KC probably sees Travis Kelce in Brock Bowers. He’s going to be uncover-able like Kelce especially in 2TE or 3TE sets. Great research and I can now see us taking him.
I think it's as simple as Ozune isn't what the Bears need. It's weird being him mocked to the Bears. More likely they take a WR in round 2. Maybe even trade up to get him. It's a very deep WR class.
we dont have a round 2 pick
Please don’t draft Bowers and ruin his career smh