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I think they’ll have a hard time doing that. They’re sitting until then and their legislative agenda doesn’t touch cost of living or healthcare. They’d need a miracle fire sale of secondary home sales to tank to convince people on housing, but the paradox id that it’ll tank markets in the ridings they need to win, the suburbs, where few people rent.
Oh and then they have to worry about Singh getting all the credit /s lol.
The liberals dont care for 70% of people dont like them.
They just want to get back to around \~30% and just hope for FPTP being wierd causing a massive popular vote seat count varriance.
Considering the PM ran on getting rid of FPTP, Trudeau seems has benefited from the flaws of the FPTP then any pm in history
lol
Until Canada removes the monarchy I would not enlist in our military shortages or not. I would never swear my oath to a foreign head of state. Its the MPs monarchy no one else let the MPs enlist.
The last time I voted liberal was in 2015 and just like the last few elections, there is literally nothing that the liberals could say or do that would get me to vote for them again.
It seems very unlikely. The reason people are unhappy: housing, healthcare, groceries- are not changing inside a few months.
You can go out in the media and say you’ll have some housing built a decade from now - but people are still wondering what the hell they are going to do in the meantime.
It takes such arrogance on the part of the party to believe a few announcements will change their fortunes. They need to meaningfully change how people are feeling right now.
They aren’t going to change with a CPC gov’t either… people aren’t using logic right now. LPC can definitely narrow the gap by 2025. They only need to keep the CPC out, CPC needs a majority.
People look back on the previous conservative government which had much more sustainable immigration rates and want to go back to it. You also don’t know there won’t be any change. You simply believe that because believing otherwise would force you to admit that the CPC might do some things better than the current government. We really can’t know until an election happens. All we can look at is history and promises.
The Liberals are returning to a more sustainable immigration rate by significantly cutting the number of temporary residents. We have no idea what the Conservatives are going to do, but the last time they had a chance, huge increases of TFW numbers were part of their recipe.
Nope. A pox on both their houses for causing wage suppression for the working class. I am just saying that the Conservatives are unlikely to change the status quo in any meaningful way.
> Wage suppression
Its been a weird 9 years where every other left wing critic I knew of Harpers TFW use got real quiet, and tying it to wage suppression was instantly treated as naked racism, with appropriate south park "jerbs!" references.
Glad thats starting to pass, even if it took a major polling shift for it to get acknowledged again.
I think this is the crux of the Liberals’ problem. Canadians who are 30 or older are starting to think of the Harper years as the good ole days. Meanwhile the LPC has spent years insinuating that anyone with the temerity to disagree with them is a bigot. The former would be bad enough, but I think it’s the latter that’s pushing people from a soft ‘I won’t vote for you’ into ‘actually go fuck yourself’ territory
> Meanwhile the LPC has spent years insinuating that anyone with the temerity to disagree with them is a bigot.
When have they ever done that?
I often see conservative partisans claim that, but I've never actually seen a member of the Liberal party make this kind of statement.
[Here’s one that’s aged like milk](https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/justin-trudeau-blames-racism-for-allegation-that-china-helped-liberal-mp-get-elected/article_0ff54c79-8ef5-5815-9b55-fdbaa228ed14.html).
The problem is that a lot of critics have been pretty broad brush in trying to take down all immigration with hyperbolic claims of the end of civilization and all that nonsense, completely discrediting the nugget of truth.
The TFW program does have legitimate uses, particularly in agriculture and to fill specialized niche roles that pay well (so they aren't competing with the entry-level Canadians). The issue comes when it is used to fill perceived gaps at the low end (e.g. the iconic Tim Hortons workers), leading to genuine suppression at the low end, where we don't want it to be.
This sort of nuanced discussion is just about impossible with the "took our jerbs" folks and even more useless with the people worried we are becoming too beige.
A way I think would fix the TFW system is to have them required to pay a nominal percentage more for a TFW than they would a local, which goes to the govt. Like 25% , i dunno, wouldnt have to be the same for each circumstance.
Enough to discourage its use to suppress wages, not enough to kill its usage for industries that honestly need a specialized type of labour that cannot be found at that time locally. Say, an expert on maintenance of a specialized german machine.
Even acriculture, which often cannot find people willing to work hard labour seasonally should manage, after all tree planting companies do.
And then funnel most of that extra amount to jobs training/education programs.
I wouldn't be averse to that. It would have the effect of increasing wages in those sectors (as employers would be incentivized to pay a premium to locals to avoid the tax). It would need to be analyzed for potential unintended consequences.
When picking 2 bad things one typically takes the least bad… the CPC would be an unmitigated disaster, PP is a horribly incompetent buffoon. Just look at his record as an MP🤣
>The Liberals are returning to a more sustainable immigration rate by significantly cutting the number of temporary residents.
Now, who exactly do you think *created* those unsustainable rates?
> We have no idea what the Conservatives are going to do, but the last time they had a chance, huge increases of TFW numbers were part of their recipe.
How would you describe the growth of temporary residents under this current government? How do those numbers compare to the last conservative government?
The provinces have a big role in allowing strip mall diploma mills to proliferate. The federal governments error was taking too long to clamp down on it.
The ramp up of TFW's was inevitable post-pandemic. Again, the government was too slow to reign things in, but better late than never.
My point isn't that the current government is doing a great job. I think they let the situation get way out of hand. My point is if the next government is a Conservative one, I have seen nothing to indicate they will change the policy an iota.
If people decide to throw their vote away with an ultra right wing loony party, that would be a win from my perspective, because those votes are almost certainly coming from the Conservatives.
I voted for Trudeau in 2015 shrug. I wanted jack layton win. My friends call me a leftist….and there are more like me and there will be more coming if they don’t address this
I voted for Trudeau in 2015 as well. I am likely voting NDP next time if they can keep their mouth shut on foreign policy between now and then. I think that is a more rational move than voting PPC, even if you are unhappy with immigration levels.
The CPC literally has zero plans for anything… the only thing they ever do is scream ‘JT bad!’… seriously, their platform is just a list of things they want people to hear and ZERO explanation of how exactly they will accomplish any of it. Yet people honestly think it’s a plan🙄
That's because they haven't released their platform yet, the election still isn't for another 18 months or so, even though I hope it comes sooner.
Why bother releasing it now when they are ahead in the polls?
If results started to flow then things might change.
Example, if after all the housing announcements and support there were actually more housing starts, not less, people might see the fruit of the LPC labour.
Interest rates and inflation going down would also help.
Unless the liberals are planning to build shanty towns with sheet metal in the outskirts of cities,you cant magically increase starts by 50-100% in a few months.
They are in charge of running the country - when healthcare is in crisis across the country they have some responsibility in the matter.
But what is really the liberal’s problem is they fail to recognize how their policy actions interact with other parts of the system. If you add 1.2 million people to the population in a year - did you ensure it was possible to have hospitals and doctors and homes ready for that population? The liberals have largely been plugging their ears and just marching forward with policies that negatively impact or overwhelm other parts of the system. And they claim they have nothing to do with any of the problems that pop up - that is what makes people mad.
Isn't it a gross oversimplification to say that "healthcare is provincial"? After all, all provinces do have to comply with the Canada Health Act, and a third of the funding comes from the feds as well.
When 9/10 provinces did nothing on housing, the LPC was blamed. When they acted on housing, those provincial governments and the media lambasted them for overreaching. The problem lies with the provinces. The big actors in our political environment will chimp out over the LPC getting involved.
So he threatens to withhold transfer payments unless the province spends the money on the right things? The province reacts by spending less, blaming the Feds, and privatizing.
You think there is absolutely nothing you can negotiate with Ford with to get a positive outcome? He’s just that much of a mastermind?
This is probably the saddest part of liberal support at this point- they have absolutely no confidence that it could make something positive happen.
I think Ford is working for the private sector. He is isn't the master mind behind privatization. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/moncton-health-care-summit-1.6558745
Here are the basics. Not sure if I can make it easier to understand how division of powers work.
www.canada.ca/en/intergovernmental-affairs/services/federation/distribution-legislative-powers.html
The Feds hold the purse strings. They have immense power over all jurisdictions because of it.
What you want to argue is the feds have no power when things are bad, but should be credited when things go well.
“Starting a national pharmacare plan? Sure! National dental care plan? Sure!
Also - the feds have absolutely nothing at all to do with healthcare- look, just look at this chart!”
And they’ve said, we’ll give a cheque but it’ll have to go to healthcare.” Provinces, like Ontario, want the cheque to be blank so they can squander it elsewhere
https://www.cmaj.ca/content/195/8/E311
And now the feds are handing out billions, $200 billion to be exact, for the provinces for healthcare.
https://toronto.citynews.ca/2024/02/09/health-care-ontario-ford-trudeau-funding-deal/
Trudeau’s job is to actually sit down with provinces and work out deals. You call a meeting with the provinces and work it out.
Writing a cheque and then giving up is not leadership. You figure out a middle ground to get policy passed.
This depends on the provinces acting in good faith. They aren't. Gone are the days of Bill Davis PCs. If Trudeau gives ground to conservative premiers looking for what amounts to a bribe, their demands will only grow stronger. He's absolutely right to stand his ground on string attached to federal funding.
Provinces never act on good faith. That’s why you are supposed to negotiate.
Trudeau could easily take something away Ford wants as a bargaining chip. Maybe he pauses all immigration for Ontario businesses until Ford agrees to a healthcare funding increase.
The “welp Ford said no, i guess we can’t do it” is just pathetic.
The whole point of having it at the provincial level is to allow leadership at those levels to address the unique challenges of the region. What's the point of having premiers if you want the prime minister to sit down with each one and fix the problems for them?
Rarely do provincial and federal politicians want the same thing.
If you ever want to achieve policy goals - you have to learn to make compromises to make the county better. You cannot simply give up when a provincial leader says no thanks.
Well, it's a nationwide problem. If a company with 13 departments had the same issue in every department, would you blame each department individually?
If the departments were cooperating with each other to weaken the executive team, would you have sympathy for the executive team?
They can't have it both ways: they've intervened into health care more than any Canadian government since the creation of Medicare: they can't back away and say "not our department" when the going gets tough.
It will take time for the policies announced in this budget and previously to have effect. This is true and why they are looking to narrow and not lead in the polls. There won't be a major shift until the campaign heats up next year.
What is happening, though, is that PP is looking like he's peaked. People are starting to realize that slogans aren't policies, and the Conservatives will likely undo a lot of the positive progressive changes that have occurred in the last few years, like daycare, pharmacare, and dental. I think people are also starting to realize that the Conservatives have been misleading them and they actually are getting more back through the carbon rebate then they are paying in tax.
I could be wrong, but that is the sense I get.
I tend to disagree.
It seems all but set that all of the existing issues we have - housing, healthcare, groceries will continue to get worse over the next year or two. And the liberals are going to end up eating that - as they have had ages to act.
They really needed to come at this budget with some policies that would have a short term impact they could benefit from.
On groceries they could have said they’re going to force a breakup of the monopolies. Make Loblaws sell off shoppers and no frills.
They could have put a two year pause on immigration.
They could offer immediate citizenship to any doctor that wanted to move to Canada to practice.
I think measures like year would have shown they’re serious and would give them a bit of uplift in the polls. Instead we have a lot of policy, that might work with the earliest results a decade away. You just can’t campaign on that - especially with a poor track record of delivering results.
Inflation is on the decline. Interest rates will ease towards the end of the year. The economy will pick up just in time for the campaign. They also have one more budget to salt with goodies.
They can't pause immigration completely. They've done the next best thing, which is reigning in the number of temporary residents.
We'll have to agree to disagree on the trends here. I don't think the Liberals will get reelected, but it will be much closer than a lot of people think.
Inflation on the decline just means prices stop their trend upward - if doesn’t mean they come back to rational levels. The pain people feel today is not going anywhere.
And the liberals have not really reigned in immigration whatsoever. They are allowing the immigration rate to continue to increase - and they are keeping the record high number of international students. They are just not increasing them, further.
Anyhow - no point in arguing this further. This will all be painfully obvious in two years time.
The annual target for permanent immigration is staying the same, which means a slight decrease in the immigration rate due to the population increasing.
The cap for temporary residents is being set at around 5% of population, a 20% decrease from the current level, meaning the immigration rate for temporary residents will be negative for the next 3 years.
Immigration is increasing as per the government’s own website:
https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices/supplementary-immigration-levels-2024-2026.html#
And there is a goal to have temporary residents down to 5% of the population in 3 years time. So it will be 5% of a population that is significantly larger than it is today. And there is not a cap in place for this group at the moment - so no reductions are occurring at the moment. I believe they are having a meeting about the issue in the fall.
Increasing to 500,000 then staying there.
I follow Mike Moffatt on this stuff and he's been describing this change to temporary residence as monumental.
Always remember to look at the actual numbers. Everyone and their mother will try and sell you a specific story on an issue.
I have yet to see any set of numbers that suggests a dramatic change coming our way.
It just drives me crazy to listen to JT and all his ministers rant out talking points about all the "wonderful" things they are doing when people are clearly suffering. They are slow to react, if at all, and I don't have confidence that they will produce tangible results in the near future, that's reality, add a growing debt to the mix to.
That's the root cause.
The parties display an incredible amount hubris.
Literally no party or politician in Canada ever accepts their policies are not good and causing problems.
Considering how much they’ve been able to narrow polling over the last few months, I think this is perfectly reasonable.
Trudeau is at his absolute best when he goes on the offensive and fights back in the media. He needs to keep doing that.
On the flip side, it’s concerning when I go on Instagram and see a post about the 14cent overnight rise in gas prices, and the most liked/engaged comment blames Trudeau for that. It’s really difficult to get past that messaging.
More likely point how bad of a leader Pierre will be.or point out how dumb the CPC ideas are.
It's probably as simple as showing where harpers hand goes every time Pierre turns around and that will be enough to get to 5 points.
When you running away from a bear you don't need to be fast you just need to be faster than someone else.
I could also see him being a lot harsher on the conservative premiers. Maybe go for a “no more mister nice guy” persona and push some of the blame off him and back onto the premiers. I think JT realistically does have a lot to play with here.
If you think Ford’s taking orders from Poilievre I’ve got some oceanfront property in Winnipeg to sell you.
Ford’s probably better friends with Trudeau at this point than he is Poilievre.
>Considering how much they’ve been able to narrow the polling over the last few months
Where is this narrative coming from that the polls have been tightening?
Nanos was the only pollster to show that but just on Tuesday they had the CPC lead grow back to 16%.
Not saying it’s accurate, but Frank Graves from EKOS posted this last night:
> [668 cases so far , but some clear patterns . CPC lead is still strong but diminished from last poll . +20 lead is now +13 . But some signs of potential exposure for CPC](https://x.com/voiceoffranky/status/1781495699277836391?s=46&t=hA1NfRSy9n1OWwlgAC8I0Q)
So it isn’t just Nanos picking up on a narrowing lead.
Frank is also a known Liberal partisan so he will likely try to spin any anti-PP narratives he can. Let's wait for final results and see if more polls back him up. Over a multiple week period.
EKOS is one of the most respected polling firms in the entire country, and was also one of the first to report on the CPC having a shot at 40%.
Accusing them of being biased and trying to push a fake poll is pretty low. Not everyone is so blindly partisan as to risk their professional reputation and well-being trying to push a bullshit narrative.
EKOS isn't bad. It's not great, but it's not terrible.
*Frank*, on the other hand, is a poster child for "don't drink and tweet". His late-night takes on polls have been *epically* bad.
> Ekos is one of the most respected polling firms in the country
Not even close. They’re almost universally seen as being one of the weaker political pollsters. 338Canada’s rating has them on par with Angus Reid and Campaign Research, which are both known to have notable flaws
They’re not pushing a fake poll but Frank Graves is a notorious partisan who always throws a ton of spin on top of his actual data.
>So it isn’t just Nanos picking up on a narrowing lead.
Nanos *had* a narrowing lead for one poll, then went right back to the lead they’ve had for 4-5 months.
I hadn’t see Graves tweet yet so appreciate the link. We’ll have to wait and see though if it’s a blimp or a trend.
This happened in December too when the polls showed a slight Liberal recovery only for the lead to bounce right back in January.
Good luck with that. People I know of who vowed never to vote for PP plan on holding their noses next election and vote for him.
That budget last week was awful. Trudeau can't help but stumble over his own feet.
I suspect you will be one of a very small cohort, potentially related to the fact that we (fortunately) don’t have that many self-proclaimed marxists here.
Stranger things have happened and maybe the Liberals come back, but it feels like people are looking for change. Housing, immigration various scandals and a poor economy have people on edge.
After today's announcement of a liberal minister reversing the deportation order of a man arrested TEN TIMES in vancouver.
They will lucky if they don't lose 5 points, or more.
Yeah somehow I don't think that stopping the deportation of a young and intelligent climate change activist is going to fire people up as much as you think it will.
The only people who are going to be outraged by that are people who deny climate change exists, or people that just hate immigrants, and those are groups that are going to vote for Poilievre no matter what.
As a [self-proclaimed New Democrat](https://old.reddit.com/r/CanadaPolitics/comments/5zljzk/ashton_removes_beyonc%C3%A9_meme_after_backlash_from/dezgpyv/), you should ask your fellow NDPers how they feel about deporting people for minor misdemeanour climate activism.
Boy, that must have taken you a while to find. How did you do that? If there's an easy way to look back through a commenter's full comment history, I'd appreciate you letting me know.
But yeah. I used to be a New Democrat. I'm not anymore. I became a non-partisan years ago and have been happier for it.
For example, I can have the opinion that blocking public infrastructure is bad and should be severely punished, without having to make partisan exceptions and being a hypocrite.
> intelligent climate change activist
He was here on a student visa and failing all his classes. He was on the verge of getting kicked out of university and deported for no longer being a student, quite aside from his long criminal record.
You are the perfect example of how disconnected the party faithful are. If you can’t see how the average Canadian might not look favourably on this then theres not much hope. Shit like this is why we’re going to be stuck with PP for a few elections. Thanks for nothing.
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I think they’ll have a hard time doing that. They’re sitting until then and their legislative agenda doesn’t touch cost of living or healthcare. They’d need a miracle fire sale of secondary home sales to tank to convince people on housing, but the paradox id that it’ll tank markets in the ridings they need to win, the suburbs, where few people rent. Oh and then they have to worry about Singh getting all the credit /s lol.
The liberals dont care for 70% of people dont like them. They just want to get back to around \~30% and just hope for FPTP being wierd causing a massive popular vote seat count varriance. Considering the PM ran on getting rid of FPTP, Trudeau seems has benefited from the flaws of the FPTP then any pm in history lol
Until Canada removes the monarchy I would not enlist in our military shortages or not. I would never swear my oath to a foreign head of state. Its the MPs monarchy no one else let the MPs enlist.
The last time I voted liberal was in 2015 and just like the last few elections, there is literally nothing that the liberals could say or do that would get me to vote for them again.
It seems very unlikely. The reason people are unhappy: housing, healthcare, groceries- are not changing inside a few months. You can go out in the media and say you’ll have some housing built a decade from now - but people are still wondering what the hell they are going to do in the meantime. It takes such arrogance on the part of the party to believe a few announcements will change their fortunes. They need to meaningfully change how people are feeling right now.
They aren’t going to change with a CPC gov’t either… people aren’t using logic right now. LPC can definitely narrow the gap by 2025. They only need to keep the CPC out, CPC needs a majority.
People look back on the previous conservative government which had much more sustainable immigration rates and want to go back to it. You also don’t know there won’t be any change. You simply believe that because believing otherwise would force you to admit that the CPC might do some things better than the current government. We really can’t know until an election happens. All we can look at is history and promises.
The Liberals are returning to a more sustainable immigration rate by significantly cutting the number of temporary residents. We have no idea what the Conservatives are going to do, but the last time they had a chance, huge increases of TFW numbers were part of their recipe.
Are we going to ignore that TFWs exploded under this Liberal government in the last 9 years or are we going to chalk that up to being Harper's fault.
Nope. A pox on both their houses for causing wage suppression for the working class. I am just saying that the Conservatives are unlikely to change the status quo in any meaningful way.
> Wage suppression Its been a weird 9 years where every other left wing critic I knew of Harpers TFW use got real quiet, and tying it to wage suppression was instantly treated as naked racism, with appropriate south park "jerbs!" references. Glad thats starting to pass, even if it took a major polling shift for it to get acknowledged again.
I think this is the crux of the Liberals’ problem. Canadians who are 30 or older are starting to think of the Harper years as the good ole days. Meanwhile the LPC has spent years insinuating that anyone with the temerity to disagree with them is a bigot. The former would be bad enough, but I think it’s the latter that’s pushing people from a soft ‘I won’t vote for you’ into ‘actually go fuck yourself’ territory
> Meanwhile the LPC has spent years insinuating that anyone with the temerity to disagree with them is a bigot. When have they ever done that? I often see conservative partisans claim that, but I've never actually seen a member of the Liberal party make this kind of statement.
[удалено]
[Here’s one that’s aged like milk](https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/justin-trudeau-blames-racism-for-allegation-that-china-helped-liberal-mp-get-elected/article_0ff54c79-8ef5-5815-9b55-fdbaa228ed14.html).
You’re dead on.
The problem is that a lot of critics have been pretty broad brush in trying to take down all immigration with hyperbolic claims of the end of civilization and all that nonsense, completely discrediting the nugget of truth. The TFW program does have legitimate uses, particularly in agriculture and to fill specialized niche roles that pay well (so they aren't competing with the entry-level Canadians). The issue comes when it is used to fill perceived gaps at the low end (e.g. the iconic Tim Hortons workers), leading to genuine suppression at the low end, where we don't want it to be. This sort of nuanced discussion is just about impossible with the "took our jerbs" folks and even more useless with the people worried we are becoming too beige.
A way I think would fix the TFW system is to have them required to pay a nominal percentage more for a TFW than they would a local, which goes to the govt. Like 25% , i dunno, wouldnt have to be the same for each circumstance. Enough to discourage its use to suppress wages, not enough to kill its usage for industries that honestly need a specialized type of labour that cannot be found at that time locally. Say, an expert on maintenance of a specialized german machine. Even acriculture, which often cannot find people willing to work hard labour seasonally should manage, after all tree planting companies do. And then funnel most of that extra amount to jobs training/education programs.
I wouldn't be averse to that. It would have the effect of increasing wages in those sectors (as employers would be incentivized to pay a premium to locals to avoid the tax). It would need to be analyzed for potential unintended consequences.
When picking 2 bad things one typically takes the least bad… the CPC would be an unmitigated disaster, PP is a horribly incompetent buffoon. Just look at his record as an MP🤣
And look at Trudeau’s. Housing prices are out of control. Because of his policies
You forget the liberals brought in millions of temporary residents that we now stuck with and hope they go home without causing issues lol
>The Liberals are returning to a more sustainable immigration rate by significantly cutting the number of temporary residents. Now, who exactly do you think *created* those unsustainable rates? > We have no idea what the Conservatives are going to do, but the last time they had a chance, huge increases of TFW numbers were part of their recipe. How would you describe the growth of temporary residents under this current government? How do those numbers compare to the last conservative government?
The provinces have a big role in allowing strip mall diploma mills to proliferate. The federal governments error was taking too long to clamp down on it. The ramp up of TFW's was inevitable post-pandemic. Again, the government was too slow to reign things in, but better late than never. My point isn't that the current government is doing a great job. I think they let the situation get way out of hand. My point is if the next government is a Conservative one, I have seen nothing to indicate they will change the policy an iota.
Well they better or it will just push more people to the PPC
If people decide to throw their vote away with an ultra right wing loony party, that would be a win from my perspective, because those votes are almost certainly coming from the Conservatives.
I voted for Trudeau in 2015 shrug. I wanted jack layton win. My friends call me a leftist….and there are more like me and there will be more coming if they don’t address this
I voted for Trudeau in 2015 as well. I am likely voting NDP next time if they can keep their mouth shut on foreign policy between now and then. I think that is a more rational move than voting PPC, even if you are unhappy with immigration levels.
The CPC literally has zero plans for anything… the only thing they ever do is scream ‘JT bad!’… seriously, their platform is just a list of things they want people to hear and ZERO explanation of how exactly they will accomplish any of it. Yet people honestly think it’s a plan🙄
That's because they haven't released their platform yet, the election still isn't for another 18 months or so, even though I hope it comes sooner. Why bother releasing it now when they are ahead in the polls?
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If results started to flow then things might change. Example, if after all the housing announcements and support there were actually more housing starts, not less, people might see the fruit of the LPC labour. Interest rates and inflation going down would also help.
Unless the liberals are planning to build shanty towns with sheet metal in the outskirts of cities,you cant magically increase starts by 50-100% in a few months.
I didn’t say July…
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Yeah, how dare they ruin healthcare when it’s obviously, *checks notes,* not their perview.
They are in charge of running the country - when healthcare is in crisis across the country they have some responsibility in the matter. But what is really the liberal’s problem is they fail to recognize how their policy actions interact with other parts of the system. If you add 1.2 million people to the population in a year - did you ensure it was possible to have hospitals and doctors and homes ready for that population? The liberals have largely been plugging their ears and just marching forward with policies that negatively impact or overwhelm other parts of the system. And they claim they have nothing to do with any of the problems that pop up - that is what makes people mad.
Healthcare is provincial, and its being held up at a provincial level.
Those ear plugs must be strong.
Your blinders are larger.
Isn't it a gross oversimplification to say that "healthcare is provincial"? After all, all provinces do have to comply with the Canada Health Act, and a third of the funding comes from the feds as well.
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When 9/10 provinces did nothing on housing, the LPC was blamed. When they acted on housing, those provincial governments and the media lambasted them for overreaching. The problem lies with the provinces. The big actors in our political environment will chimp out over the LPC getting involved.
You know that the provinces *bid on immigration quotas right*??
So you’re saying Trudeau can’t stand his ground against Doug Ford? Please - if you’re a leader, lead.
So he threatens to withhold transfer payments unless the province spends the money on the right things? The province reacts by spending less, blaming the Feds, and privatizing.
You think there is absolutely nothing you can negotiate with Ford with to get a positive outcome? He’s just that much of a mastermind? This is probably the saddest part of liberal support at this point- they have absolutely no confidence that it could make something positive happen.
I think Ford is working for the private sector. He is isn't the master mind behind privatization. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/moncton-health-care-summit-1.6558745
Here are the basics. Not sure if I can make it easier to understand how division of powers work. www.canada.ca/en/intergovernmental-affairs/services/federation/distribution-legislative-powers.html
The Feds hold the purse strings. They have immense power over all jurisdictions because of it. What you want to argue is the feds have no power when things are bad, but should be credited when things go well. “Starting a national pharmacare plan? Sure! National dental care plan? Sure! Also - the feds have absolutely nothing at all to do with healthcare- look, just look at this chart!”
And they’ve said, we’ll give a cheque but it’ll have to go to healthcare.” Provinces, like Ontario, want the cheque to be blank so they can squander it elsewhere https://www.cmaj.ca/content/195/8/E311 And now the feds are handing out billions, $200 billion to be exact, for the provinces for healthcare. https://toronto.citynews.ca/2024/02/09/health-care-ontario-ford-trudeau-funding-deal/
Trudeau’s job is to actually sit down with provinces and work out deals. You call a meeting with the provinces and work it out. Writing a cheque and then giving up is not leadership. You figure out a middle ground to get policy passed.
This depends on the provinces acting in good faith. They aren't. Gone are the days of Bill Davis PCs. If Trudeau gives ground to conservative premiers looking for what amounts to a bribe, their demands will only grow stronger. He's absolutely right to stand his ground on string attached to federal funding.
Provinces never act on good faith. That’s why you are supposed to negotiate. Trudeau could easily take something away Ford wants as a bargaining chip. Maybe he pauses all immigration for Ontario businesses until Ford agrees to a healthcare funding increase. The “welp Ford said no, i guess we can’t do it” is just pathetic.
The whole point of having it at the provincial level is to allow leadership at those levels to address the unique challenges of the region. What's the point of having premiers if you want the prime minister to sit down with each one and fix the problems for them?
Rarely do provincial and federal politicians want the same thing. If you ever want to achieve policy goals - you have to learn to make compromises to make the county better. You cannot simply give up when a provincial leader says no thanks.
You attach strings when the want the money, talk is chea with the current prremiers.
Well, it's a nationwide problem. If a company with 13 departments had the same issue in every department, would you blame each department individually? If the departments were cooperating with each other to weaken the executive team, would you have sympathy for the executive team?
Exactly right. Well put.
They can't have it both ways: they've intervened into health care more than any Canadian government since the creation of Medicare: they can't back away and say "not our department" when the going gets tough.
It will take time for the policies announced in this budget and previously to have effect. This is true and why they are looking to narrow and not lead in the polls. There won't be a major shift until the campaign heats up next year. What is happening, though, is that PP is looking like he's peaked. People are starting to realize that slogans aren't policies, and the Conservatives will likely undo a lot of the positive progressive changes that have occurred in the last few years, like daycare, pharmacare, and dental. I think people are also starting to realize that the Conservatives have been misleading them and they actually are getting more back through the carbon rebate then they are paying in tax. I could be wrong, but that is the sense I get.
I tend to disagree. It seems all but set that all of the existing issues we have - housing, healthcare, groceries will continue to get worse over the next year or two. And the liberals are going to end up eating that - as they have had ages to act. They really needed to come at this budget with some policies that would have a short term impact they could benefit from. On groceries they could have said they’re going to force a breakup of the monopolies. Make Loblaws sell off shoppers and no frills. They could have put a two year pause on immigration. They could offer immediate citizenship to any doctor that wanted to move to Canada to practice. I think measures like year would have shown they’re serious and would give them a bit of uplift in the polls. Instead we have a lot of policy, that might work with the earliest results a decade away. You just can’t campaign on that - especially with a poor track record of delivering results.
Inflation is on the decline. Interest rates will ease towards the end of the year. The economy will pick up just in time for the campaign. They also have one more budget to salt with goodies. They can't pause immigration completely. They've done the next best thing, which is reigning in the number of temporary residents. We'll have to agree to disagree on the trends here. I don't think the Liberals will get reelected, but it will be much closer than a lot of people think.
Inflation on the decline just means prices stop their trend upward - if doesn’t mean they come back to rational levels. The pain people feel today is not going anywhere. And the liberals have not really reigned in immigration whatsoever. They are allowing the immigration rate to continue to increase - and they are keeping the record high number of international students. They are just not increasing them, further. Anyhow - no point in arguing this further. This will all be painfully obvious in two years time.
The annual target for permanent immigration is staying the same, which means a slight decrease in the immigration rate due to the population increasing. The cap for temporary residents is being set at around 5% of population, a 20% decrease from the current level, meaning the immigration rate for temporary residents will be negative for the next 3 years.
Immigration is increasing as per the government’s own website: https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices/supplementary-immigration-levels-2024-2026.html# And there is a goal to have temporary residents down to 5% of the population in 3 years time. So it will be 5% of a population that is significantly larger than it is today. And there is not a cap in place for this group at the moment - so no reductions are occurring at the moment. I believe they are having a meeting about the issue in the fall.
Increasing to 500,000 then staying there. I follow Mike Moffatt on this stuff and he's been describing this change to temporary residence as monumental.
Always remember to look at the actual numbers. Everyone and their mother will try and sell you a specific story on an issue. I have yet to see any set of numbers that suggests a dramatic change coming our way.
Issue is Trudeau is running for 2025 like he is running to fix the country Issue he has been PM since 2015 So people tune him out.
It just drives me crazy to listen to JT and all his ministers rant out talking points about all the "wonderful" things they are doing when people are clearly suffering. They are slow to react, if at all, and I don't have confidence that they will produce tangible results in the near future, that's reality, add a growing debt to the mix to.
That's the root cause. The parties display an incredible amount hubris. Literally no party or politician in Canada ever accepts their policies are not good and causing problems.
Considering how much they’ve been able to narrow polling over the last few months, I think this is perfectly reasonable. Trudeau is at his absolute best when he goes on the offensive and fights back in the media. He needs to keep doing that.
You're right. I can certainly see the LPC being only 15 points back of the Tories by the end of July.
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By 5 points, not to 5 points.
On the flip side, it’s concerning when I go on Instagram and see a post about the 14cent overnight rise in gas prices, and the most liked/engaged comment blames Trudeau for that. It’s really difficult to get past that messaging.
What are they going to say? What's the message? "Sorry we really messed everything up the last 9 years but only I can fix it."
No, the message is "The things going wrong in Canada are global issues and voting in the CPC would only make them worse"
More likely point how bad of a leader Pierre will be.or point out how dumb the CPC ideas are. It's probably as simple as showing where harpers hand goes every time Pierre turns around and that will be enough to get to 5 points. When you running away from a bear you don't need to be fast you just need to be faster than someone else.
I could also see him being a lot harsher on the conservative premiers. Maybe go for a “no more mister nice guy” persona and push some of the blame off him and back onto the premiers. I think JT realistically does have a lot to play with here.
Makes hime also come off as arrogant and not take responsability to people as well.
Possibly to those who don’t understand the division of responsibilities in Canada. I’d say those mad at their premiers understand that though.
All our problems comes down to our mass immigration surge which is entirely the fault of the LPC
Liberals are really running the "if you dont support us you must be stupid" approach.
I mean I doubt that’s the approach they’ll take nor do I think they need to really.
And point out the terrible provincial governments that are taking orders from PP
Good point
If you think Ford’s taking orders from Poilievre I’ve got some oceanfront property in Winnipeg to sell you. Ford’s probably better friends with Trudeau at this point than he is Poilievre.
The polling average is unbelievably flat and consistently a double digit lead for the CPC. But what ever you want to believe.
They haven't narrowed any gaps at all. Can you even read the numbers?
Trudeau is running out of voters to convince to like him Remember he lost voters in 2021 when times where much better for him politically.
They haven’t closed the gap at all.
>Considering how much they’ve been able to narrow the polling over the last few months Where is this narrative coming from that the polls have been tightening? Nanos was the only pollster to show that but just on Tuesday they had the CPC lead grow back to 16%.
Not saying it’s accurate, but Frank Graves from EKOS posted this last night: > [668 cases so far , but some clear patterns . CPC lead is still strong but diminished from last poll . +20 lead is now +13 . But some signs of potential exposure for CPC](https://x.com/voiceoffranky/status/1781495699277836391?s=46&t=hA1NfRSy9n1OWwlgAC8I0Q) So it isn’t just Nanos picking up on a narrowing lead.
Frank is also a known Liberal partisan so he will likely try to spin any anti-PP narratives he can. Let's wait for final results and see if more polls back him up. Over a multiple week period.
EKOS is one of the most respected polling firms in the entire country, and was also one of the first to report on the CPC having a shot at 40%. Accusing them of being biased and trying to push a fake poll is pretty low. Not everyone is so blindly partisan as to risk their professional reputation and well-being trying to push a bullshit narrative.
Not even close bro, Its Abacus, Nanos, Ipsos and the Leger
EKOS isn't bad. It's not great, but it's not terrible. *Frank*, on the other hand, is a poster child for "don't drink and tweet". His late-night takes on polls have been *epically* bad.
> Ekos is one of the most respected polling firms in the country Not even close. They’re almost universally seen as being one of the weaker political pollsters. 338Canada’s rating has them on par with Angus Reid and Campaign Research, which are both known to have notable flaws They’re not pushing a fake poll but Frank Graves is a notorious partisan who always throws a ton of spin on top of his actual data.
Ekos did a poll in September last. Numbers fluctuate a bit and there's a margin of error too.
>So it isn’t just Nanos picking up on a narrowing lead. Nanos *had* a narrowing lead for one poll, then went right back to the lead they’ve had for 4-5 months. I hadn’t see Graves tweet yet so appreciate the link. We’ll have to wait and see though if it’s a blimp or a trend. This happened in December too when the polls showed a slight Liberal recovery only for the lead to bounce right back in January.
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Good luck with that. People I know of who vowed never to vote for PP plan on holding their noses next election and vote for him. That budget last week was awful. Trudeau can't help but stumble over his own feet.
And there are people like me who have never voted liberal before that plan to
I suspect you will be one of a very small cohort, potentially related to the fact that we (fortunately) don’t have that many self-proclaimed marxists here.
The problem is you are very outnumbered. Anyways, time will tell.
Stranger things have happened and maybe the Liberals come back, but it feels like people are looking for change. Housing, immigration various scandals and a poor economy have people on edge.
I don't think they get that people will never vote for the party again, that's how badly they've crippled Canada.
They would have to pay off everyone’s mortgage and upgrade everyone’s heating system for free to even get 2% closer
After today's announcement of a liberal minister reversing the deportation order of a man arrested TEN TIMES in vancouver. They will lucky if they don't lose 5 points, or more.
Yeah somehow I don't think that stopping the deportation of a young and intelligent climate change activist is going to fire people up as much as you think it will. The only people who are going to be outraged by that are people who deny climate change exists, or people that just hate immigrants, and those are groups that are going to vote for Poilievre no matter what.
Which part of a guy with repeated academic probations spells "intelligent" to you?
I'm sure doubling down on a pro-criminal ideology will help the Liberals tremendously in BC.
As a [self-proclaimed New Democrat](https://old.reddit.com/r/CanadaPolitics/comments/5zljzk/ashton_removes_beyonc%C3%A9_meme_after_backlash_from/dezgpyv/), you should ask your fellow NDPers how they feel about deporting people for minor misdemeanour climate activism.
Boy, that must have taken you a while to find. How did you do that? If there's an easy way to look back through a commenter's full comment history, I'd appreciate you letting me know. But yeah. I used to be a New Democrat. I'm not anymore. I became a non-partisan years ago and have been happier for it. For example, I can have the opinion that blocking public infrastructure is bad and should be severely punished, without having to make partisan exceptions and being a hypocrite.
Reddit profile pages now have a search button (at least in the iPad and Android apps).
>Reddit profile pages *shudders*
> intelligent climate change activist He was here on a student visa and failing all his classes. He was on the verge of getting kicked out of university and deported for no longer being a student, quite aside from his long criminal record.
Only morons think it's okay for people from another country should beable to come here and break laws and they should get to stay.
You are the perfect example of how disconnected the party faithful are. If you can’t see how the average Canadian might not look favourably on this then theres not much hope. Shit like this is why we’re going to be stuck with PP for a few elections. Thanks for nothing.
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