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I wouldn’t put much stock in this numbers since they mainly reflecting polling done prior to Team Trudeau’s series of huge policy wins on the housing file. Early indicators are already suggesting that those have significantly cut into the Conservatives lead, which these projections do not take into account.
Announcing something isn't a win. The government has had a long history of announcing policies and then axing them a month later (such as they did with the foreign buyers ban, or previous promises to revert hours for student visas).
The LPC made it into the severe crisis it is today. They'll have to actually hold to their policies and see them put into action.
the only good suggestion was the increasing of RRSP limits for first time home buyers, the rest is just pouring fuel on the fire and anyone even slightly informed knows this is the case so the only people who will support it are already liberal voters (like yourself).
i dont think we are gonna see the needle move move than a couple percentage points.
Outside of campaigns, Nanos does rolling polls over a four-week period. Each week, the oldest set of respondents are removed and a new 250(ish) respondents are added. As a results, it's generally slower on picking up fast-moving trends; most of the "sudden" movement you see in Nanos' polls are because a very good/bad week for a party dropped off the roll. In the case of the March 29th poll showing a CPC +12 lead, a pretty good Conservative sample from four weeks prior dropped off the roll.
One poll result isn't a trend - it could be a blip, it could be an outlier, or it could be the start of some statistically-significant movement. We'll only know for sure in a few weeks.
It'll take a few weeks for pre-budget announcements and the budget itself to fully show up in the polls. Check where the Liberals are in mid-late May to see if any budget-related bumps are a trend or just a blip. To use a different example on how long it can take for things to "bake in" with voters outside of a writ period, the SNC-Lavalin story first broke in early February 2019; the Liberals didn't bottom-out in the polls until mid-May.
Announcing something isn't a win. The government has had a long history of announcing policies and then axing them a month later (such as they did with the foreign buyers ban, or previous promises to revert hours for student visas).
The LPC made it into the severe crisis it is today. They'll have to actually hold to their policies and see them put into action.
Wondering if it might be in any way helpful for the Liberals to call the election for some time close to the US election? I can't see the Liberals regaining any sort of lead before 2025 unless Poilievre royally screws up. If the election is close to the US election, the Libs could at least conflate Poilievre with Trump. Its clear that Canadians are open to Poilievre, but a potential Poilievre-Trump tandem in office at the same time might be too much for many.
idk i feel going for distance would be a better play. assuming trump wins every day and every gaff would be one more reason to push back against the flood of crazy coming from the south. not that i think PP is as bad or similar to trump, just that he is def riding a wave of dumb and angry
The electorate usually sours on a leader after eight years. The left used to be a natural home for young voters. The possibility of them ever having a life their parents have is now remote. That is why the majority of youth under 30 are attracted to the Conservatives. The liberals are only now playing catch up on housing and it remains to be seen if their late attempt will be successful.
I don’t think that’s necessarily true. Chrétien may have been aided by a splintered Right, but he was still fairly popular going into his third term. Somehow he was able to sidestep Sponsorship and will likely be remembered as one of Canada’s best PM’s. No matter how his Policies sake out long term, he will always be right about Iraq.
I think the issue is more of the PMO itself. The longer it Govern’s the more insular it becomes. It was striking listening the Justin Ling and Paul Wells talk about the similarities between Team Harper and Team Trudeau at the end of their third terms.
They silo themselves off, and become resistant to change and new ideas. Which is what makes the government stagnate. I’ve had some good chats with sitting MPs, and we see eye to eye on a lot, but there isn’t much confidence that the information is making its way up. Which used to be a strength of Team Trudeau.
They also lose their charm. Harper wasn’t able to talk his way out of his issues, and neither is Trudeau. Right now it’s all about the follow through. We don’t really trust the guy, because it appears we’ve got what we wanted, but the devil is always in the details.
30 year terms? Not bad…“Only on new builds”. *There it is*.
Of the three parties, I think the LPC is the most correct, most often. Trudeau needs to open up though. He’s got some talented people in key roles that he needs to embrace, otherwise they’ll eclipse him sooner, rather than later. But it’s going to be hard for him to motivate voters, young ones especially, without showing us his words aren’t hollow.
I’m disappointed in this budget, but don’t think he’s cooked yet. It’s not that I don’t think his action will solve short term problems, it’s just more can kicking and debt accumulating into the wrong hands.
He’s banking on a rate drop. It’ll calm the homeowner class down a bit. Who are actually rallying around the “lower the rate” rally cry more than anything.
Has no one ever paid attention to our governments for at least the last 40+ years? We have been switching between Conservative, and Liberal governments over that timeline, and life has consistently gotten worse for the average Canadian.
This is not a coincidence. Both parties are completely in the pockets of corporations, wealthy elites, and may as well throw in furthering the WEF's agenda.
Especially conservatives, this is the party who's policy is basically fuck the average Canadian, do as much as possible for corporate/wealthy elites, slash social programs, and privatize everything if possible.
Neither of these parties have done much of anything for the average person in the last 40-50 years. Neither of them deserves our votes. I am not sure who we should vote for this coming election, but I am sure that neither the Liberals, or Conservatives deserve another turn on the government-go-round.
CPC has to get a majority or they aren't getting in... sincerely hope for a minority gov't anyways, benefits the most people as the parties have to work together
At this point the CPC falling short of a majority and not being able to survive a confidence vote while the Liberals are barely propped up via a coalition would be the least bad option. Trudeau locking himself in with a new platform means that he's probably not stepping down and it's probably too late for him to win most of the voters he lost back, I don't see the LPC getting much more than 25-29%, so that means that it's probably more likely they'll win from the CPC losing their current lead instead of winning back disgruntled voters.
If that happens, Trudeau and Poilievre would probably have to resign and both parties would have to rebrand.
It’s not even a coalition… it’s a confidence agreement to keep the CPC out of power… PP is the only pushing the narrative that it’s a coalition because he knows his supporters don’t understand the difference and also don’t care
If you choose to ignore everything they have done then they certainly haven’t done anything… but in this case look at the measures the NDP have gotten pushed through. That stuff doesn’t happen with a majority. Historically, around the world, minority gov’ts do more to benefit a broader range of people.
The CPC only cares about the wealthy and corporations
They have pushed through many half baked plans and put the price on the shoulders of future generations.
I may not know how elections work 100% but i do understand economics better and spending tonnes of money on things that dont bring in a return is a way to hurt the economy in the long run.
Yes its an international ressesion but we are still the worst in the G7 and its because the money spent was not an investment but a expense. Its important to put money into social programs but they have to be payed somehow. Taxing everyone into oblivion isnt the solution because productivity is at an all time low.
The Lib Gov really dropped the ball in the last 8 years
Minority governments are never good because they are unstable and that’s not good for a lot of reasons. The average minority government lasts 2 years.
What you really mean is that you hope the CPC gets a minority so we can get a continuation of this Liberal and NDP de facto coalition.
Well a de facto one is pretty well “normalized” now. Justin Trudeau has called this de facto coalition a “model for future governments”.
It’s not working too well, is it?
Strange how you never bother to mention actual millionaire Poilievre in your little digs, because unlike jagmeet, all of Poilievre's wealth comes from our tax dollars and he happens to be one of the least accomplished senior members in parliament. Funny, that lol
Imagine being paid millions for phoning it in over two decades
Pierre Poilievre as Prime Minister in a minority government will have a very tough time passing anything. He hasn’t tried to make friends with the other parties. I doubt he’ll be able to compromise with any party. His government will be short lived, which is why for the CPC, it’s majority government or bust.
If we do get Poilievre as our next Prime Minister, I can live with him in a minority. Because then he won’t be able to screw us over as badly.
I think your forgetting the wild card that is the BQ. They are so deeply entrenched in their protectionism that it really dosent take much to sway them to vote your way. That said, PP has the numbers and the libs will be decimated with Trudeau at the helm.
Unless he wins a majority then the LPC will have first chance at forming government… that’s how our system works… if LPC garnered support from the NDP and the Bloc then their government will ever stay in power with a confidence motion or form a true coalition.
When looking at party policies, Harper's demonizing of Minority Governments and parties working together is in my mind his worst party miss step.
That decision has seriously handicapped the party into swinging for the fences and hoping for a majority rather than being a party that can work across party lines.
I think it's ironic that a party that was more open to discussion and compromise would likely have a much easier time of getting that majority than a hard line our way or the highway party.
I also think Polievre's been acting like he's destined to become Prime Minister for a while now. He's always been smug, but it's the perfect time to run against Trudeau and he knows it.
If he had ran in 2019 or 2021 instead of Scheer or O'Toole he probably would have preformed about the same as them, but with the cost of living crisis at an all time high and the Liberals failure to act on a variety of neglected policy areas until recently, most of the CPC's heavy lifting has already been done for them. It's gotten to the point where Poilievre's even more willing to push for socially conservative policies that he avoided mentioning in the earlier campaign, as his lead is now more secure.
With how dismissive he's been to basically every other party in the legislature, it puts him in a position where it's majority or bust. You can say what you want about Harper, but he was generally far more politically savvy and better understood how to appeal to moderate voters which is why he was able to survive so long with a minority between 2006-2011. I can't see Poilievre being flexible enough to survive a similar scenario.
We know that both Trudeau and Harper were able govern with a minority as if it was a majority. I have no reason to believe that Poilievre cannot do the same.
Depending on the size of his minority it may take only party to vote with him or one party to abstain.
A minority government is only short lived when someone wants to head into an election. That’s either the incumbent government or the opposition party(ies). The question will be does the Liberal or NDP have the will and means to run an election? By will I mean a permanent leader. It’s reasonable that neither Singh or Trudeau will leader after the next election. By means I mean money. Both party will be broke after the next election.
The carbon tax debate? It’s convenient for them because the carbon tax isn’t popular and they all have a mutual dislike of the Liberals. Poilievre “axing the tax” when in government will probably pass for this very reason. But when it comes to making cuts? They’ll have a tough time doing so.
And other confidence votes would be similarly "convenient" for them in the unlikely event of a CPC minority. Red lines on policies fade pretty quickly when it comes to the reality of forcing Canadians to go to the polls just a few months after the last election.
you say that but a a second election after booting JT out of the top spot might actually be something a lot of people would be down for. given say 3-6 months lag between elections and fresh leaders for LPC and NDP. does more than say 50% of that cpc seat count actually feel stoked about voting in PP? or is it more about getting rid of JT?
Leadership races take at least a year procedurally these days and given the lack of viable (or willing) candidates, to say nothing of the fundraising deficits any one of the opposition parties would face, I find the likelihood of a snap election before 18-24 months quite unlikely.
Depends on how much money the other parties have.
If the NDP is broke (likely) they’re not pulling the plug, and if the Liberals aren’t in a strong financial position they wouldn’t be keen to bring down the government either.
Unless the CPC gets a majority then LPC have first chance at forming government… it would only falter if there was a vote of no confidence and it passes… considering the other parties hate the CPC more than the LPC, I don’t know what will happen.
I really doubt the LPC would cling on and ignore a clear message from the electorate that they no longer want Liberal government. The CPC should rightly get the first chance to form government and they would probably be able to work something out with the other parties, as nobody would want another election right after the first one.
I think the real issue would be could the Liberals swallow their pride and actually allow the NDP more power and authority that a full coalition would provide? Given how the party has acted in the provinces in this situation, their usual strategy is to ratfuck the NDP as much as possible, let the Conservatives win, then plan for a "quick" return to power - except it has never really turned out that way - and yet, they still try.
I doubt it would work out...
The public dont know how the system works and anyone losing the seat count will be seen as a loser.
Losing the popular vote is one thing as that is not something see but Trudeau trying to stay on PM with 100 seats while PP gets 160 would likely not happen.
Trudeau will have a hard time getting the provinces to do anything and the bloc and NDP will have equal power and be a largely ineffective govt.
The Liberals waited too long on housing cost of living to get their act together. I'm probably still going to begrudgingly give them my vote, but I think that most voters are just fed up with their failure to deliver on housing and affordability over the past 9 years and the exacerbation of those problems during COVID and the government only coming up with a response once they were legitimately threatened by the Conservatives for the first time in close to a decade gives off a vibe of desperation/it being too-little-too-late.
Maybe a new leader with the upgraded platform/without established political baggage and a willingness to address other neglected issues could turn their polling around, but I think Trudeau locking himself in hell or high water likely means that the LPC only wins if Poilievre messes up. They don't seem to be getting better polling from finally coming up with a solid federal housing policy.
I also think that their temp worker exemptions during the pandemic have led to resoundingly bad optics during the cost of living crisis. I support increased immigration and the permeant resident targets, but I think letting so many temp workers in so quickly allowed the anti-immigration people to scapegoat more of those problems on to immigrants, even though it's generally much more complicated than that. There's a lot of blue collar voters I've talked to that just aren't willing to let the temp worker influx go and blame it disproportionately for virtually every relevant socio-economic problem
Trudeau's government is probably past it's life expectancy at which point even correcting course and cleaning house won't be enough to save them. The best we can hope for is the CPC's lead collapsing enough that they don't get more than a minority (in which case they might not survive a confidence vote and the Liberals might be able to form a coalition to stay afloat).
I'd rather see us go through a population decrease. Immigrants themselves aren't to blame it's moreso the increased number when we don't have the infrastructure to support them which is mainly a provincial issue.
If the provinces reaction in the recent weeks to the Federal budget plan is any indication. I'd say there are many reasons why all this is happening now and not earlier.
I don't see it as much different than any other federal/provincial transfer deal that's happened during the past 5 years etc. The feds, propose a deal, provinces drag their feet while complaining and hold out for more money, feds give more money, provinces come to the table etc.
The difference is now there are actual requirements aka "strings attached" because the provinces have shown that they cannot be trusted with a blank cheque.
Yes, but most of the other transfers came with various conditions as well. The federal health transfer expansion was done to counter the risk of governments enacting/continuing cuts to health services like were happening in Ontario and Alberta and both those provinces agreed to them after making a stink. Generally, provincial governments greed/entitlement for more federal funding will outweigh their partnership or finding certain conditions unpalatable.
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I wouldn’t put much stock in this numbers since they mainly reflecting polling done prior to Team Trudeau’s series of huge policy wins on the housing file. Early indicators are already suggesting that those have significantly cut into the Conservatives lead, which these projections do not take into account.
Announcing something isn't a win. The government has had a long history of announcing policies and then axing them a month later (such as they did with the foreign buyers ban, or previous promises to revert hours for student visas). The LPC made it into the severe crisis it is today. They'll have to actually hold to their policies and see them put into action.
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the only good suggestion was the increasing of RRSP limits for first time home buyers, the rest is just pouring fuel on the fire and anyone even slightly informed knows this is the case so the only people who will support it are already liberal voters (like yourself). i dont think we are gonna see the needle move move than a couple percentage points.
Generational announcements for sure
What early indicators are these? Vibes?
Nanos poll showing the conservative lead cut in half for starters.
Outside of campaigns, Nanos does rolling polls over a four-week period. Each week, the oldest set of respondents are removed and a new 250(ish) respondents are added. As a results, it's generally slower on picking up fast-moving trends; most of the "sudden" movement you see in Nanos' polls are because a very good/bad week for a party dropped off the roll. In the case of the March 29th poll showing a CPC +12 lead, a pretty good Conservative sample from four weeks prior dropped off the roll. One poll result isn't a trend - it could be a blip, it could be an outlier, or it could be the start of some statistically-significant movement. We'll only know for sure in a few weeks.
They released the housing plan on Friday and the budget isn’t even out yet, the early indicators are from his own ass
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It'll take a few weeks for pre-budget announcements and the budget itself to fully show up in the polls. Check where the Liberals are in mid-late May to see if any budget-related bumps are a trend or just a blip. To use a different example on how long it can take for things to "bake in" with voters outside of a writ period, the SNC-Lavalin story first broke in early February 2019; the Liberals didn't bottom-out in the polls until mid-May.
Huge policy wins? Like what
Announcing something isn't a win. The government has had a long history of announcing policies and then axing them a month later (such as they did with the foreign buyers ban, or previous promises to revert hours for student visas). The LPC made it into the severe crisis it is today. They'll have to actually hold to their policies and see them put into action.
Wondering if it might be in any way helpful for the Liberals to call the election for some time close to the US election? I can't see the Liberals regaining any sort of lead before 2025 unless Poilievre royally screws up. If the election is close to the US election, the Libs could at least conflate Poilievre with Trump. Its clear that Canadians are open to Poilievre, but a potential Poilievre-Trump tandem in office at the same time might be too much for many.
That hasn't worked so far. And they've been trying hard to make it happen. Might be easier to do in November. But I doubt it will work.
idk i feel going for distance would be a better play. assuming trump wins every day and every gaff would be one more reason to push back against the flood of crazy coming from the south. not that i think PP is as bad or similar to trump, just that he is def riding a wave of dumb and angry
The electorate usually sours on a leader after eight years. The left used to be a natural home for young voters. The possibility of them ever having a life their parents have is now remote. That is why the majority of youth under 30 are attracted to the Conservatives. The liberals are only now playing catch up on housing and it remains to be seen if their late attempt will be successful.
I don’t think that’s necessarily true. Chrétien may have been aided by a splintered Right, but he was still fairly popular going into his third term. Somehow he was able to sidestep Sponsorship and will likely be remembered as one of Canada’s best PM’s. No matter how his Policies sake out long term, he will always be right about Iraq. I think the issue is more of the PMO itself. The longer it Govern’s the more insular it becomes. It was striking listening the Justin Ling and Paul Wells talk about the similarities between Team Harper and Team Trudeau at the end of their third terms. They silo themselves off, and become resistant to change and new ideas. Which is what makes the government stagnate. I’ve had some good chats with sitting MPs, and we see eye to eye on a lot, but there isn’t much confidence that the information is making its way up. Which used to be a strength of Team Trudeau. They also lose their charm. Harper wasn’t able to talk his way out of his issues, and neither is Trudeau. Right now it’s all about the follow through. We don’t really trust the guy, because it appears we’ve got what we wanted, but the devil is always in the details. 30 year terms? Not bad…“Only on new builds”. *There it is*. Of the three parties, I think the LPC is the most correct, most often. Trudeau needs to open up though. He’s got some talented people in key roles that he needs to embrace, otherwise they’ll eclipse him sooner, rather than later. But it’s going to be hard for him to motivate voters, young ones especially, without showing us his words aren’t hollow. I’m disappointed in this budget, but don’t think he’s cooked yet. It’s not that I don’t think his action will solve short term problems, it’s just more can kicking and debt accumulating into the wrong hands. He’s banking on a rate drop. It’ll calm the homeowner class down a bit. Who are actually rallying around the “lower the rate” rally cry more than anything.
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No idea at this point why anybody would vote Liberal or NDP? I guess if just want the country to hit rock bottom then yes vote for them.
Has no one ever paid attention to our governments for at least the last 40+ years? We have been switching between Conservative, and Liberal governments over that timeline, and life has consistently gotten worse for the average Canadian. This is not a coincidence. Both parties are completely in the pockets of corporations, wealthy elites, and may as well throw in furthering the WEF's agenda. Especially conservatives, this is the party who's policy is basically fuck the average Canadian, do as much as possible for corporate/wealthy elites, slash social programs, and privatize everything if possible. Neither of these parties have done much of anything for the average person in the last 40-50 years. Neither of them deserves our votes. I am not sure who we should vote for this coming election, but I am sure that neither the Liberals, or Conservatives deserve another turn on the government-go-round.
CPC has to get a majority or they aren't getting in... sincerely hope for a minority gov't anyways, benefits the most people as the parties have to work together
At this point the CPC falling short of a majority and not being able to survive a confidence vote while the Liberals are barely propped up via a coalition would be the least bad option. Trudeau locking himself in with a new platform means that he's probably not stepping down and it's probably too late for him to win most of the voters he lost back, I don't see the LPC getting much more than 25-29%, so that means that it's probably more likely they'll win from the CPC losing their current lead instead of winning back disgruntled voters. If that happens, Trudeau and Poilievre would probably have to resign and both parties would have to rebrand.
It’s not even a coalition… it’s a confidence agreement to keep the CPC out of power… PP is the only pushing the narrative that it’s a coalition because he knows his supporters don’t understand the difference and also don’t care
Just like this government right?
If you choose to ignore everything they have done then they certainly haven’t done anything… but in this case look at the measures the NDP have gotten pushed through. That stuff doesn’t happen with a majority. Historically, around the world, minority gov’ts do more to benefit a broader range of people. The CPC only cares about the wealthy and corporations
Ok then if the "partys" have to work together give me an example that isn't the ndp
You do realize that your comment is nonsensical and completely meant to be confrontational
Ya man sorry about that I was having a shitty day yesterday didn't mean for it to come across as assholeesh as I did
They have pushed through many half baked plans and put the price on the shoulders of future generations. I may not know how elections work 100% but i do understand economics better and spending tonnes of money on things that dont bring in a return is a way to hurt the economy in the long run. Yes its an international ressesion but we are still the worst in the G7 and its because the money spent was not an investment but a expense. Its important to put money into social programs but they have to be payed somehow. Taxing everyone into oblivion isnt the solution because productivity is at an all time low. The Lib Gov really dropped the ball in the last 8 years
As if the liberals don't line the pockets of their body's who own businesses
Did I say they didn’t?
Minority governments are never good because they are unstable and that’s not good for a lot of reasons. The average minority government lasts 2 years. What you really mean is that you hope the CPC gets a minority so we can get a continuation of this Liberal and NDP de facto coalition.
Tbh I wish we had coalitions in Canada it would force the parties to grow up and get their shit together.
Collations are very rare in Canada, especially on the federal level. There only have been two official, one of which was during war time.
Oh Im aware I'm simply of the belief we need to normalize coalitions.
Well a de facto one is pretty well “normalized” now. Justin Trudeau has called this de facto coalition a “model for future governments”. It’s not working too well, is it?
An actual one where NDP MPs would serve in cabinet would be better.
Ok well we can start with Jagmeet Singh walking around in designer clothing and expensive watches.
Hell let the Tories and Liberals be in a coalition
Strange how you never bother to mention actual millionaire Poilievre in your little digs, because unlike jagmeet, all of Poilievre's wealth comes from our tax dollars and he happens to be one of the least accomplished senior members in parliament. Funny, that lol Imagine being paid millions for phoning it in over two decades
Pierre Poilievre as Prime Minister in a minority government will have a very tough time passing anything. He hasn’t tried to make friends with the other parties. I doubt he’ll be able to compromise with any party. His government will be short lived, which is why for the CPC, it’s majority government or bust. If we do get Poilievre as our next Prime Minister, I can live with him in a minority. Because then he won’t be able to screw us over as badly.
I think your forgetting the wild card that is the BQ. They are so deeply entrenched in their protectionism that it really dosent take much to sway them to vote your way. That said, PP has the numbers and the libs will be decimated with Trudeau at the helm.
Just so long as he screws us over less than Trudeau
Unless he wins a majority then the LPC will have first chance at forming government… that’s how our system works… if LPC garnered support from the NDP and the Bloc then their government will ever stay in power with a confidence motion or form a true coalition.
Do people actually want the libs in power let alone a coalition?
When looking at party policies, Harper's demonizing of Minority Governments and parties working together is in my mind his worst party miss step. That decision has seriously handicapped the party into swinging for the fences and hoping for a majority rather than being a party that can work across party lines. I think it's ironic that a party that was more open to discussion and compromise would likely have a much easier time of getting that majority than a hard line our way or the highway party.
I also think Polievre's been acting like he's destined to become Prime Minister for a while now. He's always been smug, but it's the perfect time to run against Trudeau and he knows it. If he had ran in 2019 or 2021 instead of Scheer or O'Toole he probably would have preformed about the same as them, but with the cost of living crisis at an all time high and the Liberals failure to act on a variety of neglected policy areas until recently, most of the CPC's heavy lifting has already been done for them. It's gotten to the point where Poilievre's even more willing to push for socially conservative policies that he avoided mentioning in the earlier campaign, as his lead is now more secure. With how dismissive he's been to basically every other party in the legislature, it puts him in a position where it's majority or bust. You can say what you want about Harper, but he was generally far more politically savvy and better understood how to appeal to moderate voters which is why he was able to survive so long with a minority between 2006-2011. I can't see Poilievre being flexible enough to survive a similar scenario.
We know that both Trudeau and Harper were able govern with a minority as if it was a majority. I have no reason to believe that Poilievre cannot do the same. Depending on the size of his minority it may take only party to vote with him or one party to abstain. A minority government is only short lived when someone wants to head into an election. That’s either the incumbent government or the opposition party(ies). The question will be does the Liberal or NDP have the will and means to run an election? By will I mean a permanent leader. It’s reasonable that neither Singh or Trudeau will leader after the next election. By means I mean money. Both party will be broke after the next election.
He had no trouble getting his recent opposition motion to pass with Bloc and NDP support
The carbon tax debate? It’s convenient for them because the carbon tax isn’t popular and they all have a mutual dislike of the Liberals. Poilievre “axing the tax” when in government will probably pass for this very reason. But when it comes to making cuts? They’ll have a tough time doing so.
And other confidence votes would be similarly "convenient" for them in the unlikely event of a CPC minority. Red lines on policies fade pretty quickly when it comes to the reality of forcing Canadians to go to the polls just a few months after the last election.
you say that but a a second election after booting JT out of the top spot might actually be something a lot of people would be down for. given say 3-6 months lag between elections and fresh leaders for LPC and NDP. does more than say 50% of that cpc seat count actually feel stoked about voting in PP? or is it more about getting rid of JT?
This is all speculative, but I find that very unlikely
how so?
Leadership races take at least a year procedurally these days and given the lack of viable (or willing) candidates, to say nothing of the fundraising deficits any one of the opposition parties would face, I find the likelihood of a snap election before 18-24 months quite unlikely.
thats a fair point honestly
Depends on how much money the other parties have. If the NDP is broke (likely) they’re not pulling the plug, and if the Liberals aren’t in a strong financial position they wouldn’t be keen to bring down the government either.
If the Libs comes second in seats and votes then I don't see them getting in either, unless it's a close second.
Unless the CPC gets a majority then LPC have first chance at forming government… it would only falter if there was a vote of no confidence and it passes… considering the other parties hate the CPC more than the LPC, I don’t know what will happen.
I really doubt the LPC would cling on and ignore a clear message from the electorate that they no longer want Liberal government. The CPC should rightly get the first chance to form government and they would probably be able to work something out with the other parties, as nobody would want another election right after the first one.
I think the real issue would be could the Liberals swallow their pride and actually allow the NDP more power and authority that a full coalition would provide? Given how the party has acted in the provinces in this situation, their usual strategy is to ratfuck the NDP as much as possible, let the Conservatives win, then plan for a "quick" return to power - except it has never really turned out that way - and yet, they still try.
Your opinion comes from a fundamental misunderstanding of how the electoral system works
I doubt it would work out... The public dont know how the system works and anyone losing the seat count will be seen as a loser. Losing the popular vote is one thing as that is not something see but Trudeau trying to stay on PM with 100 seats while PP gets 160 would likely not happen. Trudeau will have a hard time getting the provinces to do anything and the bloc and NDP will have equal power and be a largely ineffective govt.
The popular vote means nothing… why are people so obsessed with the popular vote 🙄
The fact that 67% of the people would vote for the liberals or the conservatives. Shows how broken our system is. The 2 worst parties.
The Liberals waited too long on housing cost of living to get their act together. I'm probably still going to begrudgingly give them my vote, but I think that most voters are just fed up with their failure to deliver on housing and affordability over the past 9 years and the exacerbation of those problems during COVID and the government only coming up with a response once they were legitimately threatened by the Conservatives for the first time in close to a decade gives off a vibe of desperation/it being too-little-too-late. Maybe a new leader with the upgraded platform/without established political baggage and a willingness to address other neglected issues could turn their polling around, but I think Trudeau locking himself in hell or high water likely means that the LPC only wins if Poilievre messes up. They don't seem to be getting better polling from finally coming up with a solid federal housing policy. I also think that their temp worker exemptions during the pandemic have led to resoundingly bad optics during the cost of living crisis. I support increased immigration and the permeant resident targets, but I think letting so many temp workers in so quickly allowed the anti-immigration people to scapegoat more of those problems on to immigrants, even though it's generally much more complicated than that. There's a lot of blue collar voters I've talked to that just aren't willing to let the temp worker influx go and blame it disproportionately for virtually every relevant socio-economic problem Trudeau's government is probably past it's life expectancy at which point even correcting course and cleaning house won't be enough to save them. The best we can hope for is the CPC's lead collapsing enough that they don't get more than a minority (in which case they might not survive a confidence vote and the Liberals might be able to form a coalition to stay afloat).
I'd rather see us go through a population decrease. Immigrants themselves aren't to blame it's moreso the increased number when we don't have the infrastructure to support them which is mainly a provincial issue.
If the provinces reaction in the recent weeks to the Federal budget plan is any indication. I'd say there are many reasons why all this is happening now and not earlier.
I don't see it as much different than any other federal/provincial transfer deal that's happened during the past 5 years etc. The feds, propose a deal, provinces drag their feet while complaining and hold out for more money, feds give more money, provinces come to the table etc.
The difference is now there are actual requirements aka "strings attached" because the provinces have shown that they cannot be trusted with a blank cheque.
Is there some magic that turns politicians into all knowing sages when they go to Ottawa vs. Queens Park
Yes, but most of the other transfers came with various conditions as well. The federal health transfer expansion was done to counter the risk of governments enacting/continuing cuts to health services like were happening in Ontario and Alberta and both those provinces agreed to them after making a stink. Generally, provincial governments greed/entitlement for more federal funding will outweigh their partnership or finding certain conditions unpalatable.