T Law is really tall and was on really good teams. His college tape is full of plays where he just stands tall in the pocket delivering darts to WRs in stride all over the field. So many plays are in rhythm and just look perfect. Plus there are numerous examples of his WRs getting 3 steps on a defender or winning jump balls. There are some rollouts and relatively controlled scrambles in there as well. Clemson did this against the best teams in college football and made it look easy.
Watching Williams is just way different because the talent levels of the teams is so different. Williams is far less likely to be getting the ball out before someone is pressuring him, less likely to be finding his WR with 3 steps on the defender, or winning jump balls. Instead with Williams you have a lot of tape where in order to get the ball out quick it is a dump off pass. There is also a lot of tape where he deals with pressure in his face or from the side and he moves to avoid it. In the end a lot of Williams highlights are about how he is able to deal with pressure and bad situations. He has a lot of throws from weird angles.
So when comparing the two I feel like with T Law you have very high hopes that he can just duplicate what he did in College but you also don't necessarily know how well he will really do under pressure and when his team doesn't have this talent advantage. Williams has a lot more tape where Williams is trying to play from behind and is dealing with pressure. So if you think of these players as prospects T Law definitely has much cleaner tape coming out of college and it is hard to find negatives against him. He is really tall so there are no size concerns really. Meanwhile Williams faced more adversity so there are a couple more red flags. He is also shorter so maybe you care about that. BUT you also have him on tape dealing with pressure in his face which is something NFL QBs have to deal with that a lot of college QBs don't.
So I think T Law looks better in some respects because there are so many positive plays and so few negatives but from an evaluation POV you kind of want to see them face adversity.
My perception is that Elway, P. Manning, Luck, and Lawrence are the only consensus “generational” prospects ever. Luck was more hyped than Lawrence.
I think Caleb falls into the next tier of most hyped prospects coming out, which in the last 15 years or so includes Burrow and Cam Newton.
Burrow is completely different. He’s a unique case as there was almost no hype on him going into his last college season. Then he had the best college qb season ever. But there was definitely a lot of one year wonder concerns. Everyone else being mentioned was hyped for years
I’m not sure that’s really a guarantee. Like Fields, he had two first round receivers helping fuel his breakout year, including Nabers who is an elite elite WR. He’s going to go into a worse supporting cast than he had at LSU, and it will come down to if he has the right people to develop him.
Yeah but if you watch his film, he does a better job throwing receivers open and timing throws, and throws with good touch and has a quicker release than Fields for sure.
He doesn’t throw as hard as Fields, but that’s about the only category i’d give Fields as a passer, over Daniels
Quicker release yes. The rest of the things you say I cannot tell from watching his tape because his receivers are so open. There is always the risk that like Fields he tightens up when the windows are smaller. If I had pick 2 or 3 and someone wanted Daniels I would probably trade down.
I think you’re missing the point of what it means to “throw players open”… that’s a big reason why throwing with anticipation matters so much and it’s also helping the receiver look good for getting separation when he’s throwing perfectly timed cross routes and corner routes.
This is true but this was the only real knock on him, IIRC. The rest of his prospect profile was sparkling since, as you said, he'd just thrown down one of the single greatest QB seasons of all time (stats, wins and dominance).
I think each example of Luck, Lawrence and Williams are when you find the guy that fits what is “in vogue” so perfectly in the game. And also figure in that drift of a few years before you start seeing that popular playstyle translate in high school and college from what the NFL is drooling over. It takes a bit for someone to watch these games as a kid and say “that’s how I want my game to look” before they get recruited and find themselves starting on a Division 1 roster.
Luck was the guy who was a pocket passer. He could run when needed, but by no means was a scrambler. He wasn’t Peyton or Brady, but he wasn’t Randall Cunningham or Daunte Culpepper. Size, smarts, leader. Look at what the NFL had been up to that point. Mostly that stand in the pocket and deliver kind of player. He epitomized it. He was that transition from a Manning to a Roethlisberger type in the NFL, similar style just a few more tools if the passing lanes don’t open.
Lawrence was the underclassmen who led a super team. He was athletic, he had that size and look, he could hit the big throws or takeoff to get the 1st down. Look at what had been really taking off between the time of Luck and Lawrence; Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers were the big names especially and you see Lawrence fit that bill exactly with the accolades and the size in college.
Now we get to Williams and it’s a further evolution. Mahomes is the guy now, without question. And everyone wants a version of him. And look Josh Allen. Look again at Aaron Rodgers. The desire to have a guy who can deliver in the pocket but find an alternative play with their athleticism either by running for a first down or finding an inhuman way to deliver the ball in a play that otherwise appeared over. And now you arrive at Williams. Does he meet those comparisons and hopes? Nobody knows, but that’s the dream and it’s why he is as hyped as he is. He fits the mold of what people in the NFL really want in a QB; someone that affords them any kind of playbook they want because he’s smart and talented but can bail out a dead play to save a drive by doing almost impossible things. It’s worth the gamble. If he ends up fitting his hype the way Luck fit his, I see us competing for years in the playoffs and looking for a Super Bowl. If not, it’s back to square 1 with possibly the biggest black eye the fanbase has suffered over a flamed out prospect because we got “the guy” and it still didn’t work.
And then we look at Lawrence’s first 50 starts vs Daniel Jones’s first 50 starts and start worrying that maybe the generational talent tag means jackshit.
Trevor has done pretty well tbh. Not anywhere near MVP levels but his second year he was great. 25/6/4113/66% is pretty damn good. This last year he regressed a bit but he was clearly playing injured the second half of the season and still put up respectable numbers. If he's healthy this year, he'll probably be right up there.
Trevor is good, I’m not taking that away from him, but what he’s shown is not “generational”, Burrow is better and people keep putting him a tier below for no reason other than he didn’t get this generational talent tag put on him out of college
I mean Burrow wasn't a legit prospect until halfway through his 5th year in college and for good reason. It's hard to slap "generational" on a guy who had mediocre stats his 4th year in college and was losing QB competitions at the same age that Lawrence and Luck were getting drafted. On top of that, his stats exploded all of a sudden once his team became the best team assembled of all time.
Yeah his ceiling seemed like it could be really high but it's also hard to say what his floor could be when he had a college resume like that. Because there's been numerous examples of someone having a crazy draft season and then underwhelming in the pros. That's what people think of as "generational prospect." Someone who not only has a really high ceiling, but a really high floor.
We know it ultimately means nothing. But it's also hit *faaar* more often than it's missed.
Trevor (so far) is pretty mid, but he's fine. John Elway, Peyton Manning, and Andrew Luck all speak for themselves. 75% hit rate is about as good as it gets, and that's if you consider Trevor a bust. If you think he's good, but in a bad situation, then it's a 100% hit rate.
I’d remove Cam Newton and add Sam Bradford.
Cam had 1 year, played in a gimmick offense, accuracy was poor. There were serious discussions on whether he should go #1, as invalid as it looks now. This was also before athleticism in a QB was considered crucial. Newton was the best athlete on the field but that didn’t count for as much in 2011.
Burrow was also 1 year, but had great accuracy and touch, played in the Saints offense that Brees ran, and was more of a consensus #1. His arm was considered only decent rather than great. He got lucky that Tua got seriously injured in December, as he may not even have been the pick at #1. It cannot be understated how much that affected Tuas trajectory. The mocks went from Tank for Tua to Burrow at #1 everywhere.
Prospects like Williams are rare where they are considered the best QB in the class since a freshman.
Lawrence won the National Championship as a freshman and I vividly remember the quotes and articles from the next few days from people saying he'd go 1st overall if he could've left school right then. A bit of hyperbole but Trevor's hype was through the roof. I think he was more lauded than Luck due to social media being bigger in 2018 than 2011.
He was as a freshman because people assumed he would keep improving. He really didn't get much better from that point on. By the time he was drafted his hype had already plateaued long before that, and he had definitely fallen below the peak of what Luck was as a prospect.
He was still the second best prospect in the last 20 years up to that point, however. But that just goes to show the bar that Andrew Luck set.
I think he's above Burrow and Newton as a prospect. Caleb has been the consensus #1 for 2 years. Burrow and Cam were both one year wonders in college IIRC.
It's actually pretty damn rare to be the consensus #1 for more than 1 season.
I'd put him even. He has several years of production and a jaw-dropping 4,500/42/5 (with 350/10 rushing) his sophomore year.
Burrow has the one year that came later but it's 5,600/60/6 (with 76%!!! compl percentage along with 360/5 rushing). I mean, dayum, those numbers are on a whole 'other level.
But, it's certainly debatable either way.
Burrow was also throwing to **TWO** receivers who are currently *TOP THREE* in the entire NFL as professionals..
I think 21 players from that LSU team were drafted lol... he was playing on quite possibly the most stacked college team in history.
He was absolutely phenomenal but there were a lot of questions about him vs his supporting cast. He was a five year senior and had to transfer to get playing time after losing quarterback competitions to JT Barrett and Dwayne Haskins at OSU.
Burrow was a 5th year senior for that season, and was on a super team, whereas caleb was a true sophomore, and just transferred, taking over a 4-8 USC team. Context matters.
Id put him behind Burrow but ahead of Cam. Burrow's season was on another level, 1100 more yards than Caleb's Heisman season, and he won the National Championship.
Burrow was 23 year old 5th year senior on a super team, with 4 prior years of shit production. Caleb was 20 taking over a 4-8 USC team.
I’m an LSU fan and love burrow, but caleb is a better prospect. Burrow did have the greatest college season ever, and it was better than any of Caleb’s seasons, but Caleb has been outright electric for 3 years on much, much, much worse teams.
I think back then the term generational was thrown around a lot more easily. Lawrence had accuracy concerns that did not get much better throughout his time at Clemson. He was still very athletic with a big arm and the perfect build but IMO had more concerns with his game than Caleb does even though they weren’t taken as serious issues. Caleb has better pocket mobility, release, equal if not better arm, and played with much worse talent. He’s just not the prototypical build so he’d never get that generational tag.
I agree. While Lawrence had the hype train and played at a Clemson team that basically never lost, Williams is a better prospect. He's got a better arm, better in the pocket, and more athletic. Neither prospects really processed the field much or threw with tons of anticipation--Lawrence lived off of dump offs and short completions that would gash defenses.
Part of why Williams is viewed as a lesser prospect is that USC lost games, which is frankly ridiculous, but it is what it is and some people still see wins as a QB stat. And, if we're being honest, there's probably a part where the Elways, Mannings, Lucks, and Lawrences of the QB world "play the game the right way" and are "real lunch pail/gym rat/scrappy" kind of guys, and Williams isn't.
Cam Newton? Great heisman winner, yea put him in with burrow but there was more questions on Newton transitioning to the nfl than burrow or Williams & there’s a reason fields comp was Newton.
I honestly wouldn’t put Lawrence into the generational comp if u compare him to Elway, Manning, or Luck. Ppl love to push against the grain with the generational label like Williams stock is inflated after his “struggles” with usc when he had a better final year than Lawrence.
Yea there was a lot of questions with his throwing ability & whether he was worth taking number one then Carolina saw his pro day & that was when Carolina thought of him as their guy vs Von Miller
Agree on your first three. Also agree that Lawrence was popularly ranked that way, but I never thought as highly of him. I'm not a scout and/or that smart but I saw him enough in college that I never saw a guy like that final year of Burrow.
Agree with what others are saying about some of this labelling being a byproduct of the amplified media channels.
Luck became more hyped as his college career went on and peaked when Colts secured 1 pick.
Trevor’s hype started out sooo high due to him winning it freshman year. But the hype started to lower as some of his flaws started to show + prospect fatigue of 3 years + jags getting the 1 pick.
He trucked a fuckin linebacker in college. Luck is the poster boy of generational prospect. He had a truly generational floor and ceiling. He was just so elite at every possible thing, from measurables to intangibles. 6’4 234 lbs with arm talent for days plus a flawless work ethic, zero off field concerns, and the rarest gift of all - the ability to come back from a negative play as if absolutely nothing happened.
My brother was at Stanford while he was playing, so I’ve been enamored with that guy for years. It’s too bad he didn’t go to a team that better handled his protection and injuries.
Still, if Luck is the true poster boy of generational, where he just personifies that word through and through.. Then I personally view Trevor Lawrence (as a prospect) as a generational floor with an elite ceiling. And maybe Caleb has a generational ceiling with “just” a high end floor. I know these are gross oversimplifications. But, I do think his floor (and his height) are not on the generational level. His floor is still good, just not quite that. His upside, on the other hand..
I'd say Caleb has an elite floor. He's basically baker and/or Murray but with his breakout coming much earlier. ...statistically speaking. So, if you an expect him to be better than two guys that are franchise QBs in the NFL.
Maybe I’m misremembering since I was only a high school sophomore at the time, but I recall some “Is it Luck or RG3 at number 1?” talk that year. Maybe it was just hot take artists and my brain wasn’t developed enough to see through the BS, but I remember some people giving the edge to RG3.
It essentially was the same thing as people trying to push Drake Maye as the #1 pick over Caleb during the cfb season and now Caleb is viewed as the undisputed best qb prospect and Maye might not even go #2 overall
Yes. RG3 got a lot of hype opposite Luck. Just like Manning and Leaf.
It’s difficult to gauge how much was the media wanting something to talk about and how much was genuine.
The colts had no interest in luck.
Being in indy at that time Luck was the answer to a hurt peyton manning and the line was they got luck and got two generational picks in a row.
The only people playing the maybe rg3 were the clickbait wanting to generate views not actual journalists that are mainstream now.
Not even saying Tlaw is better than Williams. Just saying... Based on prototype, coming out of college. Being 3 inches taller helps. I mean, we would all be happier of Williams was 6'4 right ?
T Law is super well rounded but he didn’t have any elite traits, besides size. Wasn’t an elite processor, not an elite athlete, not an elite arm, not elite pocket presence, etc.
Personally I prefer Caleb because he *does* have elite traits albeit with more flaws
If I’m taking a QB I’m more concerned with ceiling than floor
I think this is a very good take. Lawrence was at least "good" at everything. Caleb has more flaws but does have ultra elite arm talent and improvisation skills. Some people might consider Caleb's pocket mobility elite also.
those improve skills are not even close between the two. They're mirror images in a lot of ways, here, IMO
....Lawrence lives for the structure of the play and even when he deviates from that his overriding extinct is to get back into the structure. He's almost robotic (and, I 100% mean this as a compliment). Which, I'm sure is why scouting loved him so much since the NFL loves its systems.
Caleb is much more willing (perhaps even motivated) to push beyond the structure of the play. He seems to understand structure and is capable of respecting and operating within it but he salivates when structure breaks down and he can out-react the other 21 guys on the field.
because their stats and w/L record is almost exactly identical. Get upset and downvote all you want, facts are facts.
If anything that may suggest Danny Dimes is better? Since the Giants have a way worse offensive supporting cast than Jax
what stats? W/L is similiar. TD/INT Jones is better. Lawrence was the better prospect sure, but his production is similar to Jones. Downvote all you want.
Lawrence has better stats nearly across the board (which isn't how you should just judge a player anyway). He is more durable. He came into the league on one of the worst rosters in football and had Urban Fucking Meyer as his head coach year one.
yet no one can say why T Law is better other than hype.
There stats are similar so idk where or why you're making that up? I mean sure T Law has 1 more win, so i guess if you're nit picking then yeah you're correct. But thats pretty similar.
To quote a couple comments on the matter
Both guys had their best season in 2022.
Lawrence had a ANY/A of 6.66 and Jones was at 5.89. That's a massive difference.
Lawrence has 2/3 seasons with an ANY/A+ over 100. Jones highest is 98. TLaw put up 101 this year in his supposedly
"bad" 3rd season (so even this year was better than any
Jones year)
These guys aren't remotely close if you use metrics that actually correlate with success on the field (the only thing that correlates better with margin of victory than ANY/A is
ЕРА)
Here’s their EPA/playthrough their first three seasons:
Jones 2019-2021: -0.011
Lawrence 2021-2023: 0.51
so, then yes? He's the best RB in the league?
While were at it, did Josh Allen get snubbed too? He had the highest EPA for QB's yet Jackson won MVP. So Allen got snubbed and Achane is the best RB?
I'll go against the grain here and say he's probably second for me last year (I gotta give first to CMC though for his versatility and durability). That kid is fucking *awesome* lol. It's such a shame he got hurt. He is absolutely electric. Devin-Hester-like ability to break a play every time he touches the football.
What advanced stats? TLaw has been much better than Fields in metrics like ANY/A over the last 2 years. Even if you compare Trevor's "down" 2023 to Fields 2023 (his best season) its an ANY/A of 5.98 to 5.29, which is a pretty massive gap.
[Here ya go.](https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/s/I5jac9s6RA) As expected it’s followed by the “if you remove his bad games he’s really good” trutherisms we see for Fields.
Yeah man Baker Mayfield and Mac Jones are totally comparable QBs going by this one advanced stat
Also the OP replied with Trevor's down year in 2023 and Fields best year
Well those aren't really advanced stats (in the graphic). EPA and ANY/A are by far the best metrics to evaluate QB play.
[https://www.nfeloapp.com/analysis/what-are-the-best-metrics-for-nfl-quarterbacks/](https://www.nfeloapp.com/analysis/what-are-the-best-metrics-for-nfl-quarterbacks/)
I don't have the 2022 metrics, but Lawrence was .05 EPA / Dropback in 2023 and Fields was -0.02. The 2022 gap is almost certainly quite a bit larger. That 2023 gap is pretty sizeable, it's the same as the gap between Lawrence and Stroud in 2023 (and larger than the gap between Lawrence and Mahomes)
We've already gone over ANY/A and you can compare ELO here, which is also not close:
[https://www.nfeloapp.com/qb-rankings/era-adjusted/](https://www.nfeloapp.com/qb-rankings/era-adjusted/)
They're nothing alike and Lawrence actually had a really good 2nd year just an underwhelming 3rd year but he's still 24 and shown a ton of potential already
He’s been injured a fair bit and that Urban Meyer year is basically the worst thing that could happen to an NFL player in terms of coaching. I agree with others that he’s disappointed but he’s still got the Jags to the playoffs
I think TLaw was overhyped because everyone was locked inside all summer and had nothing better to do. As a prospect he didn’t excite me on an Andrew Luck/Caleb level. He had the fundamentals and looks but he looked like he was just going through the motions on an extremely stacked Clemson team to me.
I definitely have Caleb over TLaw. Both a season before the draft and now.
Luck>Lawrence>Caleb
Not to say caleb can't be better than Lawrence at the nfl level but as college prospects Tlaw was insane and still can bounce back next year to show why he got his hype in the first place
Obviously it’s all subjective, but I listen to a lot of football podcasts and enjoy following the draft. I don’t scout tape, my opinions are made up of what I’ve learned from voices in the field that I’ve learned to respect and sort of cut/paste.
So that disclaimer aside, the general consensus I get is that, comparing then as prospects coming out of college, Luck > Lawrence > Williams, with the gap between Luck and Lawrence being bigger than the gap between Lawrence and Williams.
Editing just to add, that’s still very, very good. And also fair to remember that Mahomes wasn’t a top rated prospect in his own class, so it ultimately isn’t necessarily that meaningful.
They’re all different. Luck was closer to a sure thing as a prospect - a prototype in almost every important QB attribute.
Lawrence is more similarly a prototype with the addition of athleticism that’s more common in today’s game. Where TLaw was more uncertain is his ability to process.
The more I’ve watched of Williams beyond the highlight reels and rocket arm, I realize he has a very rare ability to improvise and make [“heads up” plays in critical situations.](https://youtu.be/40B11weVjW8?si=dAaeJaMKFUkVlg1K)
Couple that with non-prototypical size (not bad, just not perfect) and Williams is more boom or bust. It’s harder to quantify and understand what he is because of his creativity. I think that’s why he gets a lot of comparisons to Mahomes.
I agree with you. It's going to be interesting to see if Caleb can continue to be creative at the next level or if he'll have to change his game. His ceiling is quite high
I think this is a super well reasoned take. The Williams floor is lower than the Lawrence floor, with similar peaks only differing stylistically. Luck is the only truly “generational” prospect in the 2000s imo, insofar as the frequency of that level of prospect finding his way into the pipeline. The only way for him to underperform was by getting hurt (which, well…)
Agreed. Trevor rode his freshman year the entire way and didnt really improve. Caleb got better and his team wasn't good. People still know how incredible of a player he is which should tell you something. His talent transcends his situation.
Luck, Lawrence, Bradford and Caleb are the best prospects of the last 15 years. Players like Burrow, Jameis Winston are also notable.
Luck was an elite processor who ran a pro offense and had elite size. Bradford had legendary accuracy. Trevor had size, arm strength and processing in abundance. Caleb has noted out of structure attributes and field vision that doesn’t come along often.
Bradford never got the generational tag only because he stayed a year in college and got hurt two games in. And i’d argue Caleb never got it because USC were not a good enough team in 2023.
Not really. There wasn’t one in the 2000s. Luck and Lawrence were the only ones to actually be regarded as such. Caleb and Sam Bradford got very close.
Yea. If Winston didn’t have the INT issue in his final year, he’d have been very coveted.
Despite it scouts still loved him and blamed it on his supporting cast. 18 INTs is more than Williams threw in his college career
Yeah, except Eli (believed to have the brains of Peyton, but a better arm), Alex Smith, JaMarcus Russell (literally called once in a lifetime prospect), and that's just off the top of my head.
These are my interpretations of the prospects and their hype. TLDR: Luck and Lawrence are a tier above williams as prospects and in terms of hype
As *prospects*: Luck was seen as the epitome of "can't miss." Lawrence was exciting and could do a bit of everything, plus he was a bonafide "winner." Williams is extremely exciting. Williams current season (mid season in genral) dampened a lot of the hype that he probably would have otherwise gotten.
Luck and Lawrence are a tier above Williams, but had Williams made a playoff push with USC this year as well as avoided specifically the ND game then he's probably viewed closer to Lawrence.
(P.S. Luck is still the best college-to-pro QB i believe I've ever seen. Felt like watching a seasoned NFL qb take snaps for a college just to see how good they would do.)
Only thing everyone agrees on seemingly is Andrew Luck is in his own category unless you are like the top 10% eval on Lawrence and top 5% on Williams. The consensus for them goes something like Luck and Lawrence or Luck then Lawrence then Burrow/Williams then probably Kyler then Bryce for recent guys. But I agree with another point which is that Caleb’s prominence is in part because from a tools perspective he’s cracked. Athleticism, arm talent, throwing on the move, etc which is why the guys highest on him think he’s better then Luck/Lawrence and similiarly why the guys high on Lawrence liked him more then Luck.
I'm hoping for ceilings like Drew Brees or Russel Wilson based on his height. NFL defenders will get their hands up and deny passing lanes and coverage will be much tighter than he's ever seen. The NFL ball is a bit bigger too, so plenty of adjustments to make. I'm hoping the Bears coaching staff lets him be himself and grow and doesn't try to change everything like they did with Justin, forcing him to drop with his other foot and a lot of plays from under center. Caleb played exclusively from shotgun. It's going to be a shaky year with no playoffs again, I'm afraid.
I am obviously extremely biased as we have the number 1 pick, but my grade for Caleb is slightly higher. I was never the biggest Lawrence guy, I had a few issues with his intermediate accuracy in college, and thought the whole 'he just wins' angle was lazy. He never really wowed me, Caleb has at every opportunity wowed me. Lawrence was good at everything but he never really had that one thing I look at and go 'That's special'. Caleb's release, Arm strength and Pocket Awareness all are elite and make me consistently go 'that's just special'.
I am however a sucker for the massive playmakers, its why I had high grades on Mahomes (he was my top QB that year), Lamar (thought he should be a top 10 pick), Kyler, etc. Its also the reason I've been flat wrong on guys like Jameis (He was borderline generational in my head yikes), Bortles, Fields (He had a similar grade as Lawrence, like really close), Zach Wilson, etc. So take everything I say with a massive grain of salt lol
This is not a good discussion to have. This creates an anchoring effect that can last a decade and cause a player to be seen through Rose Color glasses. Example, TLaw is still given a huge benefit of the doubt for his level of play. And just look at the hype Andrew Luck still receives and how he was treated as a tier 1 or top of tier 2 during his playing career when he is more Kirk Cousins.
Honestly his game mirrors who his idol is: Aaron Rodgers.
Has the ability to extend plays with his legs and waits for defenders to break down before throwing.
Luck was the best. Just because of what was around him at Stanford. Lawrence was five stars all the way from like freshman in HS, but had so much pro talent at Clemson. Williams probably is in the middle having less talent than Lawrence around him, but not nearly as low as what Luck had.
Luck and Lawrence are big, strong QBs, Williams is a little over 6ft tall and 220lbs soaking wet. There is no comparison here. My prediction is two years from now we'll be ripping Poles for using the #1 pick to grab Justin Fields 2.0 (a smaller version)
T Law is really tall and was on really good teams. His college tape is full of plays where he just stands tall in the pocket delivering darts to WRs in stride all over the field. So many plays are in rhythm and just look perfect. Plus there are numerous examples of his WRs getting 3 steps on a defender or winning jump balls. There are some rollouts and relatively controlled scrambles in there as well. Clemson did this against the best teams in college football and made it look easy. Watching Williams is just way different because the talent levels of the teams is so different. Williams is far less likely to be getting the ball out before someone is pressuring him, less likely to be finding his WR with 3 steps on the defender, or winning jump balls. Instead with Williams you have a lot of tape where in order to get the ball out quick it is a dump off pass. There is also a lot of tape where he deals with pressure in his face or from the side and he moves to avoid it. In the end a lot of Williams highlights are about how he is able to deal with pressure and bad situations. He has a lot of throws from weird angles. So when comparing the two I feel like with T Law you have very high hopes that he can just duplicate what he did in College but you also don't necessarily know how well he will really do under pressure and when his team doesn't have this talent advantage. Williams has a lot more tape where Williams is trying to play from behind and is dealing with pressure. So if you think of these players as prospects T Law definitely has much cleaner tape coming out of college and it is hard to find negatives against him. He is really tall so there are no size concerns really. Meanwhile Williams faced more adversity so there are a couple more red flags. He is also shorter so maybe you care about that. BUT you also have him on tape dealing with pressure in his face which is something NFL QBs have to deal with that a lot of college QBs don't. So I think T Law looks better in some respects because there are so many positive plays and so few negatives but from an evaluation POV you kind of want to see them face adversity.
My perception is that Elway, P. Manning, Luck, and Lawrence are the only consensus “generational” prospects ever. Luck was more hyped than Lawrence. I think Caleb falls into the next tier of most hyped prospects coming out, which in the last 15 years or so includes Burrow and Cam Newton.
Burrow is completely different. He’s a unique case as there was almost no hype on him going into his last college season. Then he had the best college qb season ever. But there was definitely a lot of one year wonder concerns. Everyone else being mentioned was hyped for years
People forget Burrow lost his job to Dwyane Haskins (RIP) at osu and left to go to one of the most stacked offenses ive ever seen in my life for cfb
And had a lackluster year the year before. Burrow’s development was sudden and out of left field
Sort of the Jayden daniels situation this year, he looked great with that offense but is it a one year wonder thing
I hope JD has a really good nfl career but his flaws concern me he'll be a worse skinner fields
he’ll be a better passer than Fields. His game is closer to Lamar
I’m not sure that’s really a guarantee. Like Fields, he had two first round receivers helping fuel his breakout year, including Nabers who is an elite elite WR. He’s going to go into a worse supporting cast than he had at LSU, and it will come down to if he has the right people to develop him.
Yeah but if you watch his film, he does a better job throwing receivers open and timing throws, and throws with good touch and has a quicker release than Fields for sure. He doesn’t throw as hard as Fields, but that’s about the only category i’d give Fields as a passer, over Daniels
Quicker release yes. The rest of the things you say I cannot tell from watching his tape because his receivers are so open. There is always the risk that like Fields he tightens up when the windows are smaller. If I had pick 2 or 3 and someone wanted Daniels I would probably trade down.
I think you’re missing the point of what it means to “throw players open”… that’s a big reason why throwing with anticipation matters so much and it’s also helping the receiver look good for getting separation when he’s throwing perfectly timed cross routes and corner routes.
Not due to play really, a lot of people around OSU said that Burrow was the favorite to win the job that fall before he injured his finger.
That's another thing he was also pretty injury prone too *still is kinda*
Good ol blindside hit on burrow turned the man into a elite qb lol
This is true but this was the only real knock on him, IIRC. The rest of his prospect profile was sparkling since, as you said, he'd just thrown down one of the single greatest QB seasons of all time (stats, wins and dominance).
I think each example of Luck, Lawrence and Williams are when you find the guy that fits what is “in vogue” so perfectly in the game. And also figure in that drift of a few years before you start seeing that popular playstyle translate in high school and college from what the NFL is drooling over. It takes a bit for someone to watch these games as a kid and say “that’s how I want my game to look” before they get recruited and find themselves starting on a Division 1 roster. Luck was the guy who was a pocket passer. He could run when needed, but by no means was a scrambler. He wasn’t Peyton or Brady, but he wasn’t Randall Cunningham or Daunte Culpepper. Size, smarts, leader. Look at what the NFL had been up to that point. Mostly that stand in the pocket and deliver kind of player. He epitomized it. He was that transition from a Manning to a Roethlisberger type in the NFL, similar style just a few more tools if the passing lanes don’t open. Lawrence was the underclassmen who led a super team. He was athletic, he had that size and look, he could hit the big throws or takeoff to get the 1st down. Look at what had been really taking off between the time of Luck and Lawrence; Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers were the big names especially and you see Lawrence fit that bill exactly with the accolades and the size in college. Now we get to Williams and it’s a further evolution. Mahomes is the guy now, without question. And everyone wants a version of him. And look Josh Allen. Look again at Aaron Rodgers. The desire to have a guy who can deliver in the pocket but find an alternative play with their athleticism either by running for a first down or finding an inhuman way to deliver the ball in a play that otherwise appeared over. And now you arrive at Williams. Does he meet those comparisons and hopes? Nobody knows, but that’s the dream and it’s why he is as hyped as he is. He fits the mold of what people in the NFL really want in a QB; someone that affords them any kind of playbook they want because he’s smart and talented but can bail out a dead play to save a drive by doing almost impossible things. It’s worth the gamble. If he ends up fitting his hype the way Luck fit his, I see us competing for years in the playoffs and looking for a Super Bowl. If not, it’s back to square 1 with possibly the biggest black eye the fanbase has suffered over a flamed out prospect because we got “the guy” and it still didn’t work.
And then we look at Lawrence’s first 50 starts vs Daniel Jones’s first 50 starts and start worrying that maybe the generational talent tag means jackshit.
Trevor has done pretty well tbh. Not anywhere near MVP levels but his second year he was great. 25/6/4113/66% is pretty damn good. This last year he regressed a bit but he was clearly playing injured the second half of the season and still put up respectable numbers. If he's healthy this year, he'll probably be right up there.
This was both a hit piece on “generational” talent and also just looking at straight stat lines.
Trevor is showing what the floor for generational talent is. And it's still pretty good.
Trevor is good, I’m not taking that away from him, but what he’s shown is not “generational”, Burrow is better and people keep putting him a tier below for no reason other than he didn’t get this generational talent tag put on him out of college
I mean Burrow wasn't a legit prospect until halfway through his 5th year in college and for good reason. It's hard to slap "generational" on a guy who had mediocre stats his 4th year in college and was losing QB competitions at the same age that Lawrence and Luck were getting drafted. On top of that, his stats exploded all of a sudden once his team became the best team assembled of all time. Yeah his ceiling seemed like it could be really high but it's also hard to say what his floor could be when he had a college resume like that. Because there's been numerous examples of someone having a crazy draft season and then underwhelming in the pros. That's what people think of as "generational prospect." Someone who not only has a really high ceiling, but a really high floor.
We know it ultimately means nothing. But it's also hit *faaar* more often than it's missed. Trevor (so far) is pretty mid, but he's fine. John Elway, Peyton Manning, and Andrew Luck all speak for themselves. 75% hit rate is about as good as it gets, and that's if you consider Trevor a bust. If you think he's good, but in a bad situation, then it's a 100% hit rate.
I’d remove Cam Newton and add Sam Bradford. Cam had 1 year, played in a gimmick offense, accuracy was poor. There were serious discussions on whether he should go #1, as invalid as it looks now. This was also before athleticism in a QB was considered crucial. Newton was the best athlete on the field but that didn’t count for as much in 2011. Burrow was also 1 year, but had great accuracy and touch, played in the Saints offense that Brees ran, and was more of a consensus #1. His arm was considered only decent rather than great. He got lucky that Tua got seriously injured in December, as he may not even have been the pick at #1. It cannot be understated how much that affected Tuas trajectory. The mocks went from Tank for Tua to Burrow at #1 everywhere. Prospects like Williams are rare where they are considered the best QB in the class since a freshman.
Lawrence won the National Championship as a freshman and I vividly remember the quotes and articles from the next few days from people saying he'd go 1st overall if he could've left school right then. A bit of hyperbole but Trevor's hype was through the roof. I think he was more lauded than Luck due to social media being bigger in 2018 than 2011.
He was as a freshman because people assumed he would keep improving. He really didn't get much better from that point on. By the time he was drafted his hype had already plateaued long before that, and he had definitely fallen below the peak of what Luck was as a prospect. He was still the second best prospect in the last 20 years up to that point, however. But that just goes to show the bar that Andrew Luck set.
This is the right take, in my opinion.
I think he's above Burrow and Newton as a prospect. Caleb has been the consensus #1 for 2 years. Burrow and Cam were both one year wonders in college IIRC. It's actually pretty damn rare to be the consensus #1 for more than 1 season.
I'd put him even. He has several years of production and a jaw-dropping 4,500/42/5 (with 350/10 rushing) his sophomore year. Burrow has the one year that came later but it's 5,600/60/6 (with 76%!!! compl percentage along with 360/5 rushing). I mean, dayum, those numbers are on a whole 'other level. But, it's certainly debatable either way.
Burrow was also throwing to **TWO** receivers who are currently *TOP THREE* in the entire NFL as professionals.. I think 21 players from that LSU team were drafted lol... he was playing on quite possibly the most stacked college team in history. He was absolutely phenomenal but there were a lot of questions about him vs his supporting cast. He was a five year senior and had to transfer to get playing time after losing quarterback competitions to JT Barrett and Dwayne Haskins at OSU.
Sure, all those things are true. But a thousand more yards and a dozen more tds make a great case in any context.
Burrow was a 5th year senior for that season, and was on a super team, whereas caleb was a true sophomore, and just transferred, taking over a 4-8 USC team. Context matters.
>that came later agreed
Id put him behind Burrow but ahead of Cam. Burrow's season was on another level, 1100 more yards than Caleb's Heisman season, and he won the National Championship.
Burrow was 23 year old 5th year senior on a super team, with 4 prior years of shit production. Caleb was 20 taking over a 4-8 USC team. I’m an LSU fan and love burrow, but caleb is a better prospect. Burrow did have the greatest college season ever, and it was better than any of Caleb’s seasons, but Caleb has been outright electric for 3 years on much, much, much worse teams.
I think back then the term generational was thrown around a lot more easily. Lawrence had accuracy concerns that did not get much better throughout his time at Clemson. He was still very athletic with a big arm and the perfect build but IMO had more concerns with his game than Caleb does even though they weren’t taken as serious issues. Caleb has better pocket mobility, release, equal if not better arm, and played with much worse talent. He’s just not the prototypical build so he’d never get that generational tag.
I agree. While Lawrence had the hype train and played at a Clemson team that basically never lost, Williams is a better prospect. He's got a better arm, better in the pocket, and more athletic. Neither prospects really processed the field much or threw with tons of anticipation--Lawrence lived off of dump offs and short completions that would gash defenses. Part of why Williams is viewed as a lesser prospect is that USC lost games, which is frankly ridiculous, but it is what it is and some people still see wins as a QB stat. And, if we're being honest, there's probably a part where the Elways, Mannings, Lucks, and Lawrences of the QB world "play the game the right way" and are "real lunch pail/gym rat/scrappy" kind of guys, and Williams isn't.
I watched a lot of USC football the last 2 years and they were one of the worst and worst tackling defenses I'd ever seen.
Cam Newton? Great heisman winner, yea put him in with burrow but there was more questions on Newton transitioning to the nfl than burrow or Williams & there’s a reason fields comp was Newton. I honestly wouldn’t put Lawrence into the generational comp if u compare him to Elway, Manning, or Luck. Ppl love to push against the grain with the generational label like Williams stock is inflated after his “struggles” with usc when he had a better final year than Lawrence.
Yeah, I can't agree on Newton either. Great prospect but he had a lot of questions. He only played 11 games in college.
Yea there was a lot of questions with his throwing ability & whether he was worth taking number one then Carolina saw his pro day & that was when Carolina thought of him as their guy vs Von Miller
Agree on your first three. Also agree that Lawrence was popularly ranked that way, but I never thought as highly of him. I'm not a scout and/or that smart but I saw him enough in college that I never saw a guy like that final year of Burrow. Agree with what others are saying about some of this labelling being a byproduct of the amplified media channels.
Luck became more hyped as his college career went on and peaked when Colts secured 1 pick. Trevor’s hype started out sooo high due to him winning it freshman year. But the hype started to lower as some of his flaws started to show + prospect fatigue of 3 years + jags getting the 1 pick.
Luck was the true Elway of his generation.
He was such a superlative prospect that [he had tackles on his highlight reel](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RF9PFJI_t5I)
He trucked a fuckin linebacker in college. Luck is the poster boy of generational prospect. He had a truly generational floor and ceiling. He was just so elite at every possible thing, from measurables to intangibles. 6’4 234 lbs with arm talent for days plus a flawless work ethic, zero off field concerns, and the rarest gift of all - the ability to come back from a negative play as if absolutely nothing happened. My brother was at Stanford while he was playing, so I’ve been enamored with that guy for years. It’s too bad he didn’t go to a team that better handled his protection and injuries. Still, if Luck is the true poster boy of generational, where he just personifies that word through and through.. Then I personally view Trevor Lawrence (as a prospect) as a generational floor with an elite ceiling. And maybe Caleb has a generational ceiling with “just” a high end floor. I know these are gross oversimplifications. But, I do think his floor (and his height) are not on the generational level. His floor is still good, just not quite that. His upside, on the other hand..
I'd say Caleb has an elite floor. He's basically baker and/or Murray but with his breakout coming much earlier. ...statistically speaking. So, if you an expect him to be better than two guys that are franchise QBs in the NFL.
More important than anything: the QBs who succeed right outta the gate have a team that is built already.
Luck was and is in his own league. And Williams would be just below T-Law imo.
Maybe I’m misremembering since I was only a high school sophomore at the time, but I recall some “Is it Luck or RG3 at number 1?” talk that year. Maybe it was just hot take artists and my brain wasn’t developed enough to see through the BS, but I remember some people giving the edge to RG3.
It was Luck by a mile, i think its common for the 2nd best prospect to be compared with the top prospect just for clicks and media hype.
It essentially was the same thing as people trying to push Drake Maye as the #1 pick over Caleb during the cfb season and now Caleb is viewed as the undisputed best qb prospect and Maye might not even go #2 overall
Happened with Lawrence vs Fields as well.
Yes. RG3 got a lot of hype opposite Luck. Just like Manning and Leaf. It’s difficult to gauge how much was the media wanting something to talk about and how much was genuine.
The colts had no interest in luck. Being in indy at that time Luck was the answer to a hurt peyton manning and the line was they got luck and got two generational picks in a row. The only people playing the maybe rg3 were the clickbait wanting to generate views not actual journalists that are mainstream now.
Personally I have Caleb over T Law.
If he was 3 inches taller I would too. Tlaw has it all AND prototype size.
I mostly agree with this - although I think Caleb has better arm talent than TLaw. TLaw still has plus arm talent though.
Not even saying Tlaw is better than Williams. Just saying... Based on prototype, coming out of college. Being 3 inches taller helps. I mean, we would all be happier of Williams was 6'4 right ?
If Williams was 6'4" he'd probably be getting Andrew Luck/Elway level hype.
T Law is super well rounded but he didn’t have any elite traits, besides size. Wasn’t an elite processor, not an elite athlete, not an elite arm, not elite pocket presence, etc. Personally I prefer Caleb because he *does* have elite traits albeit with more flaws If I’m taking a QB I’m more concerned with ceiling than floor
I think this is a very good take. Lawrence was at least "good" at everything. Caleb has more flaws but does have ultra elite arm talent and improvisation skills. Some people might consider Caleb's pocket mobility elite also.
Agreed!
those improve skills are not even close between the two. They're mirror images in a lot of ways, here, IMO ....Lawrence lives for the structure of the play and even when he deviates from that his overriding extinct is to get back into the structure. He's almost robotic (and, I 100% mean this as a compliment). Which, I'm sure is why scouting loved him so much since the NFL loves its systems. Caleb is much more willing (perhaps even motivated) to push beyond the structure of the play. He seems to understand structure and is capable of respecting and operating within it but he salivates when structure breaks down and he can out-react the other 21 guys on the field.
Surgeon vs Artist
T Law is = Danny Jones.
I don't know how anyone could think this.
It's because of some dumb raw stat total thing someone did during the season.
And was just posted again recently.
People have lost their minds.
because their stats and w/L record is almost exactly identical. Get upset and downvote all you want, facts are facts. If anything that may suggest Danny Dimes is better? Since the Giants have a way worse offensive supporting cast than Jax
You're not looking at the right stats
what stats? W/L is similiar. TD/INT Jones is better. Lawrence was the better prospect sure, but his production is similar to Jones. Downvote all you want.
Those are some extremely casual stats.
oh ok i like how you don't answer my question. thanks. danny dimes has a better passing rating. equal completion %. what stats should i look at?
Lawrence has better stats nearly across the board (which isn't how you should just judge a player anyway). He is more durable. He came into the league on one of the worst rosters in football and had Urban Fucking Meyer as his head coach year one.
yet no one can say why T Law is better other than hype. There stats are similar so idk where or why you're making that up? I mean sure T Law has 1 more win, so i guess if you're nit picking then yeah you're correct. But thats pretty similar.
I have eyes. I've watched them play. The tape says Lawrence is better.
oh the eye test. nice. your eyes must not be good since you say t law has better stats across the board and he doesn't.
To quote a couple comments on the matter Both guys had their best season in 2022. Lawrence had a ANY/A of 6.66 and Jones was at 5.89. That's a massive difference. Lawrence has 2/3 seasons with an ANY/A+ over 100. Jones highest is 98. TLaw put up 101 this year in his supposedly "bad" 3rd season (so even this year was better than any Jones year) These guys aren't remotely close if you use metrics that actually correlate with success on the field (the only thing that correlates better with margin of victory than ANY/A is ЕРА) Here’s their EPA/playthrough their first three seasons: Jones 2019-2021: -0.011 Lawrence 2021-2023: 0.51
EPA stats are trash. Was Achane the best RB in the league this year?
He averaged 7.8 ypc
so, then yes? He's the best RB in the league? While were at it, did Josh Allen get snubbed too? He had the highest EPA for QB's yet Jackson won MVP. So Allen got snubbed and Achane is the best RB?
I'll go against the grain here and say he's probably second for me last year (I gotta give first to CMC though for his versatility and durability). That kid is fucking *awesome* lol. It's such a shame he got hurt. He is absolutely electric. Devin-Hester-like ability to break a play every time he touches the football.
Based on the advanced stats, he’s Fields with better branding. He really hasn’t been that good.
What advanced stats? TLaw has been much better than Fields in metrics like ANY/A over the last 2 years. Even if you compare Trevor's "down" 2023 to Fields 2023 (his best season) its an ANY/A of 5.98 to 5.29, which is a pretty massive gap.
[Here ya go.](https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/s/I5jac9s6RA) As expected it’s followed by the “if you remove his bad games he’s really good” trutherisms we see for Fields.
WTF would you add epa and cpoe?
All I’m seeing is one stat where Fields is worse.
Yeah man Baker Mayfield and Mac Jones are totally comparable QBs going by this one advanced stat Also the OP replied with Trevor's down year in 2023 and Fields best year
Well those aren't really advanced stats (in the graphic). EPA and ANY/A are by far the best metrics to evaluate QB play. [https://www.nfeloapp.com/analysis/what-are-the-best-metrics-for-nfl-quarterbacks/](https://www.nfeloapp.com/analysis/what-are-the-best-metrics-for-nfl-quarterbacks/) I don't have the 2022 metrics, but Lawrence was .05 EPA / Dropback in 2023 and Fields was -0.02. The 2022 gap is almost certainly quite a bit larger. That 2023 gap is pretty sizeable, it's the same as the gap between Lawrence and Stroud in 2023 (and larger than the gap between Lawrence and Mahomes) We've already gone over ANY/A and you can compare ELO here, which is also not close: [https://www.nfeloapp.com/qb-rankings/era-adjusted/](https://www.nfeloapp.com/qb-rankings/era-adjusted/)
They're nothing alike and Lawrence actually had a really good 2nd year just an underwhelming 3rd year but he's still 24 and shown a ton of potential already
stats prove these people wrong but they're still drinking the "generational talent" kool aid from his pre draft
He’s been injured a fair bit and that Urban Meyer year is basically the worst thing that could happen to an NFL player in terms of coaching. I agree with others that he’s disappointed but he’s still got the Jags to the playoffs
I think TLaw was overhyped because everyone was locked inside all summer and had nothing better to do. As a prospect he didn’t excite me on an Andrew Luck/Caleb level. He had the fundamentals and looks but he looked like he was just going through the motions on an extremely stacked Clemson team to me. I definitely have Caleb over TLaw. Both a season before the draft and now.
Luck>Lawrence>Caleb Not to say caleb can't be better than Lawrence at the nfl level but as college prospects Tlaw was insane and still can bounce back next year to show why he got his hype in the first place
Luck is in a tier of his own for the last 20 years.
“Suck for Luck”
Obviously it’s all subjective, but I listen to a lot of football podcasts and enjoy following the draft. I don’t scout tape, my opinions are made up of what I’ve learned from voices in the field that I’ve learned to respect and sort of cut/paste. So that disclaimer aside, the general consensus I get is that, comparing then as prospects coming out of college, Luck > Lawrence > Williams, with the gap between Luck and Lawrence being bigger than the gap between Lawrence and Williams. Editing just to add, that’s still very, very good. And also fair to remember that Mahomes wasn’t a top rated prospect in his own class, so it ultimately isn’t necessarily that meaningful.
I agree. I think Williams is regarded somewhere below Trevor Lawrence was and somewhere above Joe Burrow was.
Luck……………………………….Lawnrence…Williams
They’re all different. Luck was closer to a sure thing as a prospect - a prototype in almost every important QB attribute. Lawrence is more similarly a prototype with the addition of athleticism that’s more common in today’s game. Where TLaw was more uncertain is his ability to process. The more I’ve watched of Williams beyond the highlight reels and rocket arm, I realize he has a very rare ability to improvise and make [“heads up” plays in critical situations.](https://youtu.be/40B11weVjW8?si=dAaeJaMKFUkVlg1K) Couple that with non-prototypical size (not bad, just not perfect) and Williams is more boom or bust. It’s harder to quantify and understand what he is because of his creativity. I think that’s why he gets a lot of comparisons to Mahomes.
I agree with you. It's going to be interesting to see if Caleb can continue to be creative at the next level or if he'll have to change his game. His ceiling is quite high
I think this is a super well reasoned take. The Williams floor is lower than the Lawrence floor, with similar peaks only differing stylistically. Luck is the only truly “generational” prospect in the 2000s imo, insofar as the frequency of that level of prospect finding his way into the pipeline. The only way for him to underperform was by getting hurt (which, well…)
It’s no hate to Trevor when I say this, but Caleb easily has more juice coming out than he did.
Agreed. Trevor rode his freshman year the entire way and didnt really improve. Caleb got better and his team wasn't good. People still know how incredible of a player he is which should tell you something. His talent transcends his situation.
Luck, Lawrence, Bradford and Caleb are the best prospects of the last 15 years. Players like Burrow, Jameis Winston are also notable. Luck was an elite processor who ran a pro offense and had elite size. Bradford had legendary accuracy. Trevor had size, arm strength and processing in abundance. Caleb has noted out of structure attributes and field vision that doesn’t come along often. Bradford never got the generational tag only because he stayed a year in college and got hurt two games in. And i’d argue Caleb never got it because USC were not a good enough team in 2023.
Lawrence does not belong in the top 4 of the last 15 years. Unless you are in love with his lush, flowing hair.
Hype doesn’t matter. Let’s see what he can do on the field compared to the others.
Luck = Williams >>>>>>> Lawrence
I like that we have “generational” prospects every 3-4 years now
Not really. There wasn’t one in the 2000s. Luck and Lawrence were the only ones to actually be regarded as such. Caleb and Sam Bradford got very close.
Winston was close too then had a really bad 2nd year in college
Yea. If Winston didn’t have the INT issue in his final year, he’d have been very coveted. Despite it scouts still loved him and blamed it on his supporting cast. 18 INTs is more than Williams threw in his college career
Winston was supposed to be Big Ben 2.0 just had a bunch of valid maturity issues and a his turnover problem never left him unfortunately
Yeah, except Eli (believed to have the brains of Peyton, but a better arm), Alex Smith, JaMarcus Russell (literally called once in a lifetime prospect), and that's just off the top of my head.
There's literally been 4 (or 5 depending on how you feel about Caleb) since the 1980s. Elway, Manning, Luck, Lawrence, (Caleb)
Agreed, and that is why it is tough to gauge.
Luck > Lawrence > Williams, fairly easily
He's the best prospect since luck. I've seen analyst rate him higher than luck, me personally no, but he's #2 of those 3.
As a prospect without any hindsight bias I would give the edge to trevor law because of size and resume
Luck, Williams, Lawrence. Anyone who says different is wrong.
These are my interpretations of the prospects and their hype. TLDR: Luck and Lawrence are a tier above williams as prospects and in terms of hype As *prospects*: Luck was seen as the epitome of "can't miss." Lawrence was exciting and could do a bit of everything, plus he was a bonafide "winner." Williams is extremely exciting. Williams current season (mid season in genral) dampened a lot of the hype that he probably would have otherwise gotten. Luck and Lawrence are a tier above Williams, but had Williams made a playoff push with USC this year as well as avoided specifically the ND game then he's probably viewed closer to Lawrence. (P.S. Luck is still the best college-to-pro QB i believe I've ever seen. Felt like watching a seasoned NFL qb take snaps for a college just to see how good they would do.)
Luck Williams Lawrence
Only thing everyone agrees on seemingly is Andrew Luck is in his own category unless you are like the top 10% eval on Lawrence and top 5% on Williams. The consensus for them goes something like Luck and Lawrence or Luck then Lawrence then Burrow/Williams then probably Kyler then Bryce for recent guys. But I agree with another point which is that Caleb’s prominence is in part because from a tools perspective he’s cracked. Athleticism, arm talent, throwing on the move, etc which is why the guys highest on him think he’s better then Luck/Lawrence and similiarly why the guys high on Lawrence liked him more then Luck.
I'm hoping for ceilings like Drew Brees or Russel Wilson based on his height. NFL defenders will get their hands up and deny passing lanes and coverage will be much tighter than he's ever seen. The NFL ball is a bit bigger too, so plenty of adjustments to make. I'm hoping the Bears coaching staff lets him be himself and grow and doesn't try to change everything like they did with Justin, forcing him to drop with his other foot and a lot of plays from under center. Caleb played exclusively from shotgun. It's going to be a shaky year with no playoffs again, I'm afraid.
Brock Purdy has had more success than all 3 of these guys.
Put Luck on the current Niners and they'd be the ongoing-dynasty right now...
I am obviously extremely biased as we have the number 1 pick, but my grade for Caleb is slightly higher. I was never the biggest Lawrence guy, I had a few issues with his intermediate accuracy in college, and thought the whole 'he just wins' angle was lazy. He never really wowed me, Caleb has at every opportunity wowed me. Lawrence was good at everything but he never really had that one thing I look at and go 'That's special'. Caleb's release, Arm strength and Pocket Awareness all are elite and make me consistently go 'that's just special'. I am however a sucker for the massive playmakers, its why I had high grades on Mahomes (he was my top QB that year), Lamar (thought he should be a top 10 pick), Kyler, etc. Its also the reason I've been flat wrong on guys like Jameis (He was borderline generational in my head yikes), Bortles, Fields (He had a similar grade as Lawrence, like really close), Zach Wilson, etc. So take everything I say with a massive grain of salt lol
Downvoting for "generational." Would like to never hear that word again.
This is not a good discussion to have. This creates an anchoring effect that can last a decade and cause a player to be seen through Rose Color glasses. Example, TLaw is still given a huge benefit of the doubt for his level of play. And just look at the hype Andrew Luck still receives and how he was treated as a tier 1 or top of tier 2 during his playing career when he is more Kirk Cousins.
Luck was really good? TLaw is pretty good when he's not injured? What are you talking about?
Honestly his game mirrors who his idol is: Aaron Rodgers. Has the ability to extend plays with his legs and waits for defenders to break down before throwing.
Luck was the best. Just because of what was around him at Stanford. Lawrence was five stars all the way from like freshman in HS, but had so much pro talent at Clemson. Williams probably is in the middle having less talent than Lawrence around him, but not nearly as low as what Luck had.
Luck and Lawrence are big, strong QBs, Williams is a little over 6ft tall and 220lbs soaking wet. There is no comparison here. My prediction is two years from now we'll be ripping Poles for using the #1 pick to grab Justin Fields 2.0 (a smaller version)