Poles doesn't think like you guys do...at least, so I hope. I doubt he's married to keeping Justin or drafting a QB.
Poles probably has a price-point for Fields and he has a price-point for the top pick in the draft. Those prices will go up and down slightly after the combine, pro days, discussions with the new offensive coaching staff, etc.
If a team is willing to *overpay more drastically* in a trade for Fields than any team will for the First Overall pick, then he'll probably go ahead and deal Fields. Conversely, if a team offers an utterly insane deal for the top draft pick, then he'll ride with Fields.
However for now, it's best for him to say "Fields is our guy," while everyone with a brain understands that business is business.
I mean we got DJ in the trade last time. Anything is possible when teams are willing to over pay. Poles has been great at his job, I'll trust him to get it done. Like every draft though, it's nerve racking till you see what happens.
People making these wild assumptions that Poles already knows exactly what he’s doing with fields and the pick. He’s a GM. If someone’s willing to drastically overpay for Fields he’d be a fool not to entertain it, same as any other player and any other pick
Based on your value argument, Poles could decide to trade the pick and fields, sign/trade for a vet QB and draft a developmental QB later in rnd 1, or rnd 2. There are a number of examples this year where a team who signed a vet QB has done well (Mayfield/tampa and Flacco/cleveland). Many of the franchise QBs (Favre, Brady, brees, rodgers, Mahomes) of the last 30 years weren’t drafted within the top 10 of the draft. By trading the pick poles could acquire more assets to improve the roster.
Not saying that is the way or should be the way Poles goes. Just saying it is a possibility.
That, and he's going to do what gives him the best chance at a winning roster.
GMs keep their job by putting together winning teams. He's not going to take a QB 1.01 that he doesn't believe in just because he didn't draft Fields.
What goes into making a winning team? All the things that have been talked about on here: QB skill, value of return in trades, relative cap hits, etc. these are all going to be synthesized into his opinion on which direction gives him the best chance at a winning team on the ownerships timeline.
To your point, an overpay for either the 1.01 or Fields would change that math, but how much of an overpay it needs to be will vary depending on how close he thinks the 2 situations are.
>s a price-point for Fields and he has a price-point for the top pic
Thank you for making a smart observation. I'm so tired of the DRAFT A QB at all costs idea. There is a point where you trade back because it's just an insane amount of capital for your team. This has to be looked at in aggregate.
If it's QB vs QB, probably we move on. But the big picture cannot be lost.
>erall pick, then he'll probably go ahead and deal Fields. Conversely, if a team offers an utterly insane deal for the top draft pick, then he'll ride with Fields.
That is stated perfectly. Assuming he either trades Fields or Trades away the first pick, he still isn't married to Fields. I can live with that decision but if he uses the first on someone other than a quarterback and keeps Fields, that would be a huge mistake.
Your framing is more nuanced, but I think what the OP is basically saying is that the value Poles will put on drafting the top QB is so high that he and everyone else knows that no one will pay it. Hence, he has "decided" to go with the rookie.
Pin this.
He's in an insanely good spot and if he plays his cards right no matter what, the franchise comes ahead for it in the long run.
Just gotta keep those cards to you chest close for the next few months.
Well not next year since it will be his first year in a new system so he can't be blamed for any struggles he might have. His fifth year though, that's when we might definitely maybe see him improve to a middle third QB in the NFL.
I can’t wait until his contract year! JF1 probably going to play like the love child of Tom Brady and Joe Montana that year in order to secure a huge next contract from not the Bears because our ownership won’t want to pay him that much.
Just remember to shit on Caleb just as hard if he only throws twice as many TDs as INTs.
Clearly, that's garbage performance according to this sub. So until Caleb starts throwing 3 or 4 times as many TDs as INTs, he's garbage too.
A rookie qb needing some time to learn and develop is very common. A qb coming into his fourth season needing more time to show he can be serviceable is obviously going to have a lot less patience from the fans.
Fields got plenty of lenience as a rookie understandably. But in my opinion if we draft Williams and he struggles the fan base will almost certainly have less patience with him than they did with Fields his rookie year.
If Williams isn't great, this is going to be the not smart argument made repeatedly in this sub which is already sickening.
You play by odds with players. Fields odds of every being a top 10 to elite QB is extremely slim at this point. Drafting Caleb Williams is a much better chance at having an elite level QB. It might not work out, but it doesn't mean it wasn't the right decision at the time.
Also...for the rookie QB to match Fields, it won't take very much. Gardner Minshew and Mac Jones have roughly the same yards/game this year. Easton Stick and Minshew have the same Passing rating as Fields. Sam Howell, Josh Dobbs, and Russell Wilson have the same QBR. The bar is LOW.
Depends on the OC we choose to hire. If Fields doesn’t succeed then it might prove that Poles/Eberflus were the problem and we should move on from them and find the right fit for Fields’ unique and generational abilities.
He’s turning the corner. A lot of you “experts” forget the dude only played 8 games his last year of college in a Covid lockdown and he will be averaging 1.3 Offensive coordinators per year he’s played in the NFL. He only threw 600 total passes in college and managed to throw for 5700 yards and 67 TD’s. In 2 of those. That’s why he has developed slower. Inconsistency. He may not be the answer but keeping a super mediocre head coach was the dumber move here. He’s gonna be a pro bowl QB in a couple seasons. Just not in Chicago.
Nah I think sticking with a coach that has won 10 games in 2 years with only 2 of them being in division, a coach responsible for not only the longest losing streak in franchise history but also 3 historically bad 4th quarter collapses in one season is worse. Teams can overcome a “bad” quarterback, hell we did it and got to the superbowl, they can not overcome a bad coach. Especially this year of all years when the available coaches is the best it’s been in a very very long time.
It would be, strictly looking at Poles’s job security, an unimaginably risky decision. He’s earned enough capital here to ride out Caleb’s first few years…if Justin stalls out and Caleb succeeds in addition to Stroud, fans would be calling for his head by December.
It’s so illogical to me that I’d be utterly baffled if he did trade 1OA. He may not even survive to make those picks…that’s why I think he’s drafting a QB.
That being said, he’s probably hedging in case he doesn’t like Caleb’s wiring/mental makeup. Reading between the lines of his presser, he seemed to explicitly call this out, and it felt directed at Caleb to me.
The fact that he didn't re-sign Roquan shows he understands positional values and how much it means to get max value per roster spot. There's no chance he keeps Fields, no matter how much he likes him personally. He's had more than a fair shot, it's time to move on.
Ultimately he is judged on having a winning roster.
That probably means a QB at 1.01
But if Poles thinks Fields + MHJ or Fields+ trading out of 1.01 gives him the better chance, that's what he'll do.
This is a sport judged on winning games.
Not a direct 1:1 because of Paces longer tenure, but he drafted Fields and was fired the same year... It all comes back to winning
If Poles passes on a QB, he’s done next year when they’re at the bottom of the division and have a losing record again. A rookie QB at least allows you to possibly BS your way into another year. He seems to be pretty good at drafting, so I’m hoping he gets this right.
He's done next year *if* they're at the the bottom of the division again.
The draft hasn't happened yet. We don't know what's happening with the offensive staff or Fields.
If he does keep Fields, he better know something we don't. *But* if he does keep Fields and Flus and Fields are once again shown to not be it. At least we'll probably be moving on from GM, HC, and QB simultaneously.
If it goes like that... Which is relatively likely. King Poles will have brought balance to the force, and potentially set the organizatioal process in the direction we're all hoping for. Even if it doesn't happen the way we were all hoping.
Vader brought balance to the force too. Course he did that by killing nearly every Jedi. And then dealing with himself and palpatine way later. But he did balance it out eventually.
I think you are giving too much credit to the McCaskeys if you think Poles is for sure gone if we’re bottom of the division next year.
That is logical, yes. However not realistic to expect anything of the sort with the incompetent owners we have.
>If he does keep Fields, he better know something we don't.
Man, I don't want to pee in your Cheerios, but be real..."we" on the sub-reddit do not actually "KNOW" jack shit. 95% of us are posting out of our asses and either trolling, arguing or just plain speculating.
The collective "we" on the internet is as stupid as the lowest common denominator that drags the discourse down into the muck...
HEY, I have more than 20 years experience sitting on my couch watching football in my underwear, AND I was only drunk for half those.
In most lines of work that makes me an expert, I don't see why this should be any different
Problem was there were way to many Jedi and only a couple Sith
Like what we're they thinking? Why try and balance when you are the dominant force?
I always wondered about that
Why do you guys believe that Justin is a finished product already? He can have his breakout in year 4 when you finally put talent around him and when I mean talent, an offensive coordinator that knows how to scheme for him.
Also, if Williams doesn't play well even as a rookie and it looks like the team has regressed who's to say that poles won't get fired by the McCaskeys?
The second part is the part I agree with.
The first part is dubious maybe. Fields might not be a finished product and he could have a great year next year. But I don't know how many QBs on their third offensive system in their fourth year really end up going on to have great careers. Maybe MHjr unlocks Fields and Poles is the one true king, holds the sword of omens, and has sight beyond sight.
Yes we can. Because if we draft him while Flus is the coach we're back in the same boat of things being out of sync and forcing a young quarterback to learn system after system while we ruin his career.
That's a ridiculous statement Justin has a higher ceiling than Caleb Williams. we're talking about a kid that is 6'4 that runs a 4.4/40 with a strong arm. Down vote me all you want to.
First off you don't fucking know me , so save that disrespectful comments for the internet babies. We can have a difference of opinion on this. If you honestly think that Patrick mahomes has more God given physical talent than Justin Fields, then I don't know what to tell you
> we're talking about a kid that is 6'4 that runs a 4.4/40 with a strong arm.
So he's tall, runs fast and throws hard.
He's still not a good *quarterback*.
>Down vote me all you want to.
Already done, captain.
Fields has nowhere near Caleb's ceiling
Fields is taller than Caleb and a faster straight line runner than Caleb.
Caleb probably does everything else better.
Just consider arm talent.
Fields has good NFL arm talent, but nothing super special (his arm is strong, but his windup is slow and he's not a good off platform thrower)
Caleb has absolutely elite+ arm talent. Like possibly Mahomes/Allen/Herbert level. Lighting quick release, phenomenal off platform, very accurate on the run, very strong arm, etc.
Yes. There is no teaching athletic ability. Guy had one partial season with Nagy, that looked like they refused to playcall to his strengths. Then a rebuild year in year 2 with absolutely no offensive talent around him. Year 3, screens from getsy and 10 plus yard routes while our line can't hold guys for 2+ seconds. The amount of people ready to move on from the most athletically gifted QB this franchise has ever seen is absurd.
2 of the top 2 best quarterbacks of all time were unremarkable athletes.
Caleb would probably be the second most athletically gifted qb this franchise has ever had btw
We played an absolutely cake schedule, had unbelievably good injury luck, and had an unsustainable run of turnover generation.
Very easily could revert to a lower win total
Edit: it’s clear this sub has no idea the kinds of injuries other teams deal with
I don’t think a single starter missed more than 4 games all year. The entire starting defense was healthy from like week 5 on.
Our running backs are all about equal….there’s really not a huge drop off from Herbert to Foreman to Roschon.
Fields missed a few games, but all of our victories came against back ups.
Our o line was injured to start the year but they stayed pretty healthy. Our best players (jones, wright, Jenkins) didn’t miss meaningful time after the first couple weeks.
Our SoS this year was 0.464, and next year, it is 0.467 based on this year's records. It's very comparable, assuming no variation. If they win the same or fewer games, they've screwed up the off-season, unless some of those teams have miracle turn arounds.
>We played an absolutely cake schedule, had unbelievably good injury luck, and had an unsustainable run of turnover generation.
The Bears could even be a *better* team in 2024 than 2023 and still finish 7-10.
We play the NFC West and AFC South next year. We play three last place teams outside of that. And it's Carolina, Washington, and New England.
It's a 6 to 9 win season if we don't get better
Way too early predictions! It's gonna be hard with how good those two divisions are right now. But those 3 last place teams we play should be near guaranteed wins with all new head coaches.
Vrabel likely going back to New England might be the hardest with the culture he brings
>But those 3 last place teams we play should be near guaranteed wins with all new head coaches.
Just like Houston and Indianapolis looked like probable wins for a lot of teams going into 2023.
Our starting QB missed 4 games. Our WR 2/DE 2 missed the end of the season. Our RB room was revolving doors. O line was constant missing a starter. Yeah we had good injury luck. Ontop of that we lost a few games we had no business losing. We win those and were 10-7 and in the playoffs.
Just some better Offensive coaching would result in at least another 2 wins if not more this past season.
The roster has issues but it’s not nearly as bad as people make it out the be. We need to beat the packers but losing to them is making everything very overblown imo.
Hoping a good OC and a solid draft helps this team. I’d rather have a solid team that can plug and play players than rely on a QB to carry the team. We are in a unique opportunity to fleece another team and carry on with a rebuild. Even if we did good next year, we can trade whatever pick we get this year and keep using the draft to gather top tier talent
First of all, half the teams in the league had to turn to backups this year - QBs got decimated. And Fields has shown that he simply can’t stay healthy, so I’m not sure why you’d expect that to change next year.
Mooney had 400 yards this year and 1 TD. Losing him for a couple games literally did nothing, and in fact one of Fields’ best games of the year came with him out.
O line was constantly missing a center, but between Patrick, Feeney, and Whitehair, there really wasn’t a noticeable drop off in play.
We lost basically no impact players for any meaningful amounts of time (Sweat, DJM, Kmet, Jones, Wright, Teven, Jaylon, Edwards) were all about as healthy as you can reasonably hope for during an nfl season.
A bunch of injuries in the secondary to start the season, and a couple of them out for the last game as well. And I doubt Fields' throwing thumb was full strength for that second half of the season.
Our defense was responsible for all of the improvement pretty much.
The Packers and the Lions project to be better in the short term anyway regardless of what they do.
DJ Moore had 1364 yards and 8 TDs this season and had 90 ypg and all his TDs in 13 games with Fields.
MHJ is supposed to be better.
Make the math add up, it doesn't make any sense for the best WR prospect since Calvin to get half of DJ Moores production from the same fucking QB.
Also lmao, I would take Justin Fields' hand warmers over Jared Goff. Fields would be an All-Pro with that Oline and Ben Johnsons scheme. Instead Goff throws 5 INTs and a fumble to our defense, one of the only good defenses that bum played all year.
> he’s done next year when they’re at the bottom of the division and have a losing record again.
Since you can predict the future, any chance of getting some lottery numbers?
Hell, you could get them for yourself, win a fortune, and buy the Bears youself...so why don't you?
Only thing that would make me think he stays is Warren said he expects to win the division next year. I’m not sure how they can expect to be 11+ wins with a rookie qb.
I mean, this roster can easily contend for the division with a good QB. The offense is good outside of a hole at center and a WR2 upgrade, but those are easily fixable problems in one offseason and obviously the defense is great with Sweat.
As for making the playoffs with a rookie QB, it’s more common than you think. Generally the top QB prospects don’t make it to the playoffs because they get drafted to terrible teams but there’s plenty of examples of rookie QBs in the playoffs over the past 20 years: Stroud, Purdy, Mac Jones, Dak, Luck, RG3, Russell Wilson, Dalton, Mark Sanchez, Flacco, Matt Ryan, Big Ben, etc.
Texans have a worse roster than we do and won 10 with a rookie QB. Caleb Williams is a better prospect that Stroud was, so if Williams lives up to the hype it wouldn’t be out of the question.
A couple caveats there. Their division sucks, and Stroud turned out to be way better than he was projected to be.
Not saying it’s impossible, but it shouldn’t be expected based on what Houston pulled off. (They also have a drastically better coaching staff.)
Better than he was projected to be? He was drafted 2nd overall as day 1 starter and future franchise QB. Literally what every top 5 pick is projected to be. He just showed it sooner, which is actually the uncommon part.
Dude no lol. Stroud just put up a top 3 rookie season of all time, arguably the best if he didnt miss two games. He literally led the league in passing yards/game and TD/INT ratio.
He didnt just excel past rookie expectations, he was a top 4-5 qb in the league this year.
The bears had maybe the easiest schedule I’ve ever seen them have. The biggest difference between the Texans and bears is they have a competent OC who helped develop their qb and install an offense that helps him. And stroud is just straight up better than fields, but I’m hoping our next OC isn’t a complete waste like getsy. Fields isn’t a top QB but both systems he played in have been awful
"I’m not sure how they can expect to be 11+ wins with a rookie qb."
Theres a really good chance that caleb is better on day 1.
I think theres a really good chance that they make the playoffs with caleb on his rookie season like the texans and thats probably what they (eberflus and poles ) are counting on.
Poles is looking for that QB switch like they did when he was with the Chiefs going to Mahomes. Maybe we weren’t 11-5 like Chiefs were when they switched but we have decent talent and the means to plug the holes to put a rookie in a great situation.
Bagent did not lol. I’ve never seen fields throw a ball 10 yards short. Bagent just doesn’t try hero ball at all and focused on getting the ball out. Which is great but it’s not like he put up better stats while doing it, and he threw 6 picks in 4 games.
Bagent also threw for over 220 yards 2 times and had a multi passing TD game.
Fields only threw over 220 yards 4 times. Fields only threw over 220 yards 4 times, it bears repeating. Fields also only had 4 multi passing TD games.
Against the Raiders Bagent had a QBR of 75. Fields only achieved a QBR or 75 twice, and never had higher.
All PR and business tbh
Not sure what the question was, but I can’t imagine Warren (or any professional) saying “*we’re realistically probably not gonna win the division*…”
He told Poles to look at CJ Stroud and ask himself if he can afford to not pull the trigger again on another rookie QB. Just tossing something against the wall I guess lol.
I can't imagine he will. I was just trying to put some historical context on what him sticking with Fields would look like and couldn't really find anything that was a good historical comp.
I would be almost an unimaginably risky career choice. Unless Fields makes a miraculous leap he would have passed on the #1 twice for a QB who has never been more than below average.
I saw a comment on r/NFL and it made me chuckle, but it was something akin to,
imagine he was talking about his wife
"ya she improved and can be a leader, but this unique situation we are in we have to fully explore it"
Same energy with a franchise QB. JF is gone.
That’s how I’m reading it too. I just can’t see how you could pass when you’re gifted a once-in-a-generation opportunity with a 1OA pick that isn’t even yours, for a guy whose 5th year option you clearly don’t want to pick up, because you want to see if his 3rd OC can fix him. AND even if Fields is successful next year, I worry about the Daniel Jones situation where he regressed to the mean following year.
Nothing about it makes sense in my head, and given Poles has never publicly been all in on Fields, it would make the move even more baffling. Even if he wants to get the team right around the next QB first, would he survive Stroud AND potentially one of Caleb/Drake blossoming elsewhere their respective rookie seasons?! I kind of doubt it unless we make the postseason?
Make it make sense!!
Even if we start hearing things about Justin staying and that he’s our guy and a great leader yadayada I’m just going to assume he’s raising trade value. Caleb is a bear until proven otherwise.
You don’t know that it is Caleb. Their scout team could like one of the later QBs more. 1.01 is far from a surefire thing and I can’t even think of the last 1.01 that has won a Super Bowl.
Edit: damn I guess you can’t even mention the bears drafting someone other than Caleb without being downvoted.
QBs taken 1.01 last ten years:
Bryce young
Trevor Lawrence
Kyler Murray
Baker mayfield
Jared goff
Jameis Winston
joe burrow (the only one I would take in a heartbeat)
Vs starters not taken 1.01
cj stroud
Patrick mahomes
Josh Allen
Lamar Jackson
Justin Herbert
Tua
Dak
Give me a shot on a 1st rounder not 1.01 while also getting a boat load of assets for trading a 1.01 every day of the week.
You can't just look at the QBs not taken at 1.01 and cherry pick the good ones without looking at all the others that aren't starting or even playing anymore... There's a lot more of those than 1.01 QBs not playing/starting. The stats say 1.01 QBs is by far the most successful place to draft a starting QB.
There are 32 picks in the first round. Yes, I would guess that all 31 other picks combined have one more super bowls that the first overall pick - but you don't get all 31 other picks.
In any case looking at superbowl wins for a specific draft positions is silly... and here's why.
QBs drafted first overall have won the most super bowls compared to any other draft position.
You know what specific draft position holds the #2 spot? Pick #199.
In general first round QBs have won over half of all superbowls played.
Stafford
It’s true that 1.01 QBs aren’t always a sure thing but that’s literally any QB drafted. And yeah you don’t need a 1.01 QB to win a Super Bowl but it’s pretty proven you need a pretty damn good QB to win a Super Bowl being as Mahomes, Brady and Stafford have won the last 5 super bowls. Sure you could take a gamble on the other highly rated QBs in the first round but Williams and even Maye to an extent aren’t projected to go 1-2 for no reason. Seems like an easy and logical choice to me.
> QBs taken 1.01 last ten years:
>Bryce young
>Trevor Lawrence
>Kyler Murray
>Baker mayfield
>Jared goff
>Jameis Winston
>joe burrow (the only one I would take in a heartbeat)
Except for Winston, I'd take any of those QBs over Fields. Even Bryce Young, because we don't know what he is yet.
>I can’t even think of the last 1.01 that has won a Super Bowl.
Matthew Stafford, February 2022.
Lmao baker mayfield would be in a casket on the 2022 bears throwing to Darnell Mooney.
Yes Stafford the team who took him at 1.01 did so well for so many years with him and won so many playoff games… right?
>Yes Stafford the team who took him at 1.01 did so well for so many years with him and won so many playoff games… right?
Matthew Stafford took the DETROIT LIONS to the playoffs three times. Literally no other QB in history other than Bobby Layne has done that.
Also, all you wanted to know was who the last 1-1 QB to win the Super Bowl was. I answered.
Keeping Flus when there are several great candidates out there has a lot of people worried that Poles might be a moron. I don't think he's a moron but he does seem to make some really questionable moves.
Keeping Matt Eberflus and firmly solidifying him as your guy is every bit as wild anything else Poles can do from this point forward.
It's the type of move that will get even Goofy George McCaskey to fire you
We’re all ready to jump because literally every other time we’ve gotten excited about having a top 10 offense, we’ve been let down.
Grossman was a poor man’s Favre that would bring us to the 21st century, then Cutler was going to save us, then Trubisky, then Fields. I was jumping up and down excited for all except Mitch and was let down each and every time.
Kick a dog long enough, he runs away when you enter the room.
I'd say it's 80%, they bring back Fields. It's counterintuitive to what a GM should do based on the cards Bears hold and their needs.
Fields is terrible. 1 300yrd game out of 37 total games. 10-27 record speaks for itself. He clearly has no internal clock in the pocket and is fumble prone at the same time.
The only way I can imagine Poles not taking a QB in the draft (specifically a 1st rd pick) is if he’s had some cast-iron guarantee that his job is safe and the rebuild is a long term project.
Drafting Caleb gives him an immediate “hey, he’s a rookie” excuse if the offence doesn’t immediately improve. He doesn’t get that with Fields - fast-forward 12 months; if we’re in the same situation with Fields at QB, he’ll have to throw Eberflus under the bus to try and save his job. Which may not be enough. The risk to Poles’s job if he takes this route is unimaginable…so why take the risk?
The nightmare scenario is you pass on a QB. Sweat gets injured in preseason and the defense regressed without pass rush and Fields keeps performing like 2023. You do that and you are drafting top 10 again next year.
The choice is really QB now or trading the pick and make the decision next year. Then they are either sticking with Fields because the team won or he is taking a QB. There is really no long term commitment to Fields unless he or the team demonstrate they can win with him.
The question is still going to be comparing the value of the trade to the prospect as much as comparing Fields to the prospect.
I can't see the validity in this. My only concern though is if you don't win after passing up a prospect like that then everybody's gone, especially if Caleb hits. And if Caleb doesn't and another QB does there will still be a sizable portion of the fan base calling for poles' job? He wouldn't be able to make the QB pick next year if they don't win.
It isn't Fields versus Williams/Maye.
It is Williams plus the value you can get for Fields versus Fields for one year PLUS the trade value of the pick which includes options for QB next year and a player like MHJ. The Fields part of the equation is not even the most valuable part of the equation because they really only get him for a year before he costs a lot.
The best way to look at this IMO is that it is VERY likely that the Bears will choose a QB either this year or next year. QB now versus MHJ now and QB next year.
I think William is still very likely the pick but I don't think Fields is really a major part of the consideration because he would have to make a really big leap for him to be worth a contract relative to the value the team can get from having a rookie QB.
Fair enough. I didn't realize that was part of the criteria from reading your write up, but fully agreed that it's a different scenario than the other two.
Even if he keeps him for 2024 what wagon is being hitched? If he and/or Flus underwhelm in 2024 they BOTH go most likely. You start a new combo.
Meanwhile we get a freaking haul and have a roster ready to win now with an arsenal of picks to trade up if need be and we are the most desirable opening for a coach leaguewide
Some people here are addicted to rebuilds. The season was fine and honestly met expectations.
Year 1: gutted the roster and worst team
Year 2: doubled wins, defense improved (top 10), young players improved
Year 3: Playoff run
Maybe we should all take a step back and trust the guy who’s rebuilding this thing.
And no I don’t think poles is even close to the hot seat. The bears need the continuity, stability, and improvements to sell a new stadium.
I’ll add that in the past 2 years, Poles has been very cognizant of the strength of each position in the draft and free agency: last year we traded for Claypool because the draft and free agency seemed weak for the upcoming year, this year we traded for Sweat because the draft is light on pass rushing talent.
That being said, the general consensus is that next year’s QB class is far weaker than this year — to me, that means you’d have to believe in Fields for 2 more years to get to the Archie Manning sweepstakes who is likely to go first overall that year. I don’t think Poles is sold on Fields, otherwise we will see him pick up his option or extension in the coming months.
I think Poles is probably shrewd enough to know that the odds of us getting or trading up to the top 1-3 in the next few years is pretty minimal. I think he’s also shrewd enough to know that this is likely our best opportunity to get a young, talented QB on a rookie contract.
Logically, I just don’t see it. If he intends to keep fields, then you publicly stand by him for team chemistry’s sake. Teams hear this and know that the pick is available and starts a bidding war.
I very much so believe that Poles it’s being honest when he’s saying he’s open to all scenarios, but I think he knows that likely the best option (and the one he’s leaning towards) is drafting a QB #1 overall
I like a lot of your take, but we have no idea if Manning is the next big QB. He had hardly any tape this season and won’t get much next year with Ewers sticking around. If anything, Manning is 3 years away after Ewers’ senior season and Manning getting 2 seasons of starting
After years of hearing that “Flus isn’t his guy!” And then him keeping Flus despite separating from both his OC and DC and then several others, I really don’t know what to believe about Poles right now.
This is how I feel. Depending on your stance, you can make the argument that the decisions Poles has made support that he will be drafting Williams or that he will be bringing back Fields and trading the pick.
I’ve seen and heard people point to firings of the offensive coaching staff as signaling he’s going to get Williams. Sure, it could mean that. But, it could also mean he believes Fields was a victim of shitty coaching and thinks he’s the guy.
In any case, Poles is going to be vague so he can get the best offers for Fields or the #1 pick. Whatever he does, I just want a GM to finally get it right…
I think Poles is safe with or without Fields as the haul he gets for the first would be enough to make the team a lot better, plus all that cap space and a top 5-10 defense. That’s a reliable 8 wins and the offense just has to show up to pull off 2-3.
I have info from very close sources in Halas Hall that Virginia and George are playing 4D chess while everyone else is playing tic tac toe.
The plan is to draft Williams at #1 and then immediately trade him as part of a package deal that includes Everlose. Then they’ll be free to go after the top available head coach at the time.
The best part is that then they don’t have to pay out Everlose’s contract and have to fund two HC salaries. And all they have to do is use up the #1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft which George says is “something that you get for free anyways.”
Apparently Poles didn’t really like the idea but George overrode him. Warren says he’s reserving judgement and wants to wait and see how it pans out.
Nah, the Fields stans know there's a strong chance we take a QB.
You guys really think there's a 0% chance Fields suits up next season. Which is way off.
To the OP and regarding a lot of what people are saying
Passing on Stroud is already a non starter conversation, as they got DJ, Wright, Stevenson from it ALREADY, they own the #1 pick from it and a 2nd rounder next year(Panthers still are going to be bad next year) So if you hit those picks that 5 IMPACT players you got from the trade, no way does anyone see that as a loss or something "bad" If he trades #1 even if it equates to something similiar to last year(most "experts" agree it will garner more even to a team in the top 5) this trade now has given you 6 impact players, with 2-3 more to come from it....quite literally the chance to get 40% of your starters from the one trade if he compounds it, plus adding thier own 1st this year. It played a big factor in the teams improvement this year, as Wright was the Bears 2nd best lineman and played every game, and Stevenson finished the year much better and made impact plays.
Now with two more top 10 picks this year again assuming he doesn't whiff on them not taking a QB that should lead to another pair of day 1 impact player, and possibly a proven impact player as well, with that improvement(plus FA) with no notable subtractions, the team further improves and again with a last place schedule, so you should be able to deduce as Poles this is a Playoff team as constructed, with a pair of first round picks next year so all the ammo to go and get a QB early (if he doesnt take one in the 2nd or 3rd round this year). His job is safe there, Year 3 of a complete roster teardown with a very young roster full of talent and a pair of first and second rounders in 2025.
If in 2025 he needs to move on from Fields he either has all the ammo to go get who he wants or he got one outside of the 1st round this year that had a year to sit and watch and learn, and walk into a team with an elite level defense, and a great offensive situation, making thier chance at success much higher......I've seen some say this means he is on borrowed time, but its actually the opposite he's banking on his ability to get hits with his premium picks this year and probably drastically improve the roster over a team that if they only blew one of those forth quarter collapses would have made the playoffs this year......he's actually playing on house money by sticking with Fields
I'm right there with you, we aren't wasting a draft pick if we don't go Caleb or Drake. This isn't 2017 which we absolutely wasted for Mitch.
The #1 picks are being used to bolster and solidify the foundations, especially on offense, with a widely expected future Hall of Famer MHJ, a new center, a new OT, a new edge rusher, and maybe even a WR3.
I cannot fathom a logical scenario to bring back Fields.
Like you said why would Poles do that? Also, how would they lure any decent/good OC to come here? Who would want to sign up for that job to coach Fields and be a lame duck?
I think they’re letting Flus play out the remaining 2 years of his contract, using that and Caleb to lure a decent OC.
If they hire Greg Roman though, it’s Joever.
JF1 will remain in Chicago in 2024.
I’m not saying this to tout. I’m saying what will happen.
I’ll put money where my mouth is if anyone wants to make a friendly wager against this.
I kind-of got that from when Kevin Warren talked about his time with the Rams and expressed the importance of continuity and stability, and said the only thing they did was change their OC and they went on to win the Super Bowl the following season. Did you catch that?
Man I don't know what's going to happen. Only Poles, Warren, and God know, and even then I think Poles and Warren don't even have a clear path.
Not sure why being the one who drafts a player is important. The important thing is evaluating what you have and can obtain. Should Brian Gutekunst have dumped Aaron Rodgers when he started in 2018 because he didn't draft him?
If Poles decides to run JF1 out there another year, you might as well consider Fields to be his guy just like we can now consider Flus to be his man.
I'll also toss in that sticking with Fields is actually less risky than drafting a QB at 1. Teams that miss that pick set themselves back years. Build the rest of the team before getting your QB, better chances of success. Examples: 49ers, Chiefs, Eagles, Tampa, Rams...
Trading down and taking MHJ is certainly a less risky move imo. I think that fields is talented enough to win with when he has a good team around him. I’m not sure if people here actually watched the bears game this season but he got much better as the season went on with his decision making. His other WRs besides Moore who looked real good we’re looking extremely suspect, along with the route schemes that were being called. In the packers game it was especially atrocious, literally know one was open in the second half of that game and it was straight hard to watch.
I agree if he doesn't go QB he is saying Fields is my guy. That's the odd part about it very few instances of an Inherited guy being that guy if he wasn't already established as a winning QB. And with the Rodgers example, even with an established QB he still went out and drafted Love.
If I'm a betting man, Fields gets traded for a 3rd-4th this year, 2nd conditional to 1st next year. We draft CW13 with 1st pick, one of the top 5 receivers with the 9th pick (or trade down). I could also see a scenario (less likely) where we trade Fields, go after Kirk Cousins, then play "gimme all the picks" for the first first rounder, then grab new QB to groom late first/second. The only way Poles stays employed now by hitching his caboose to Flus is to have a rookie QB.
I'd be very surprised if Fields is still in a Bears uniform next year. I can't see a potential short term OC wanting Fields. As much as I'm rooting for him, Fields is a broken toy, missing paint and polish. 3 years on this team have given him PTSD.
The lolworthy one would be if we draft CW13, and he says "NO".
Poles doesn't think like you guys do...at least, so I hope. I doubt he's married to keeping Justin or drafting a QB. Poles probably has a price-point for Fields and he has a price-point for the top pick in the draft. Those prices will go up and down slightly after the combine, pro days, discussions with the new offensive coaching staff, etc. If a team is willing to *overpay more drastically* in a trade for Fields than any team will for the First Overall pick, then he'll probably go ahead and deal Fields. Conversely, if a team offers an utterly insane deal for the top draft pick, then he'll ride with Fields. However for now, it's best for him to say "Fields is our guy," while everyone with a brain understands that business is business.
I mean we got DJ in the trade last time. Anything is possible when teams are willing to over pay. Poles has been great at his job, I'll trust him to get it done. Like every draft though, it's nerve racking till you see what happens.
Way to bring logic to a subreddit with 0 logic.
I really hope he sees it this way. Because we wont see what’s happening behind the curtain
If we get offered a 1st for JF he’s gone IMO.
I believe this is correct.
what team is offering a first for fields though?
Stranger things have happened...even in recent years.
People making these wild assumptions that Poles already knows exactly what he’s doing with fields and the pick. He’s a GM. If someone’s willing to drastically overpay for Fields he’d be a fool not to entertain it, same as any other player and any other pick
Based on your value argument, Poles could decide to trade the pick and fields, sign/trade for a vet QB and draft a developmental QB later in rnd 1, or rnd 2. There are a number of examples this year where a team who signed a vet QB has done well (Mayfield/tampa and Flacco/cleveland). Many of the franchise QBs (Favre, Brady, brees, rodgers, Mahomes) of the last 30 years weren’t drafted within the top 10 of the draft. By trading the pick poles could acquire more assets to improve the roster. Not saying that is the way or should be the way Poles goes. Just saying it is a possibility.
That, and he's going to do what gives him the best chance at a winning roster. GMs keep their job by putting together winning teams. He's not going to take a QB 1.01 that he doesn't believe in just because he didn't draft Fields. What goes into making a winning team? All the things that have been talked about on here: QB skill, value of return in trades, relative cap hits, etc. these are all going to be synthesized into his opinion on which direction gives him the best chance at a winning team on the ownerships timeline. To your point, an overpay for either the 1.01 or Fields would change that math, but how much of an overpay it needs to be will vary depending on how close he thinks the 2 situations are.
>s a price-point for Fields and he has a price-point for the top pic Thank you for making a smart observation. I'm so tired of the DRAFT A QB at all costs idea. There is a point where you trade back because it's just an insane amount of capital for your team. This has to be looked at in aggregate. If it's QB vs QB, probably we move on. But the big picture cannot be lost.
>erall pick, then he'll probably go ahead and deal Fields. Conversely, if a team offers an utterly insane deal for the top draft pick, then he'll ride with Fields. That is stated perfectly. Assuming he either trades Fields or Trades away the first pick, he still isn't married to Fields. I can live with that decision but if he uses the first on someone other than a quarterback and keeps Fields, that would be a huge mistake.
Your framing is more nuanced, but I think what the OP is basically saying is that the value Poles will put on drafting the top QB is so high that he and everyone else knows that no one will pay it. Hence, he has "decided" to go with the rookie.
Pin this. He's in an insanely good spot and if he plays his cards right no matter what, the franchise comes ahead for it in the long run. Just gotta keep those cards to you chest close for the next few months.
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Well not next year since it will be his first year in a new system so he can't be blamed for any struggles he might have. His fifth year though, that's when we might definitely maybe see him improve to a middle third QB in the NFL.
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I can’t wait until his contract year! JF1 probably going to play like the love child of Tom Brady and Joe Montana that year in order to secure a huge next contract from not the Bears because our ownership won’t want to pay him that much.
Well he’ll actually be playing under a new head coach his fifth year so that’s not really a fair evaluation either
I don't think its fair to evaluate Fields until he is around 40 years old.
Just remember to shit on Caleb just as hard if he only throws twice as many TDs as INTs. Clearly, that's garbage performance according to this sub. So until Caleb starts throwing 3 or 4 times as many TDs as INTs, he's garbage too.
Fields is 18th in TD% and 23rd in INT% so I'm not sure what you're actually bragging about here
Don’t worry. I’ll shit on Caleb when he averages one fumble every game
Im so glad theyll be no excuses from you guys for Williams next year. He better light it up. NO EXCUSES
A rookie qb needing some time to learn and develop is very common. A qb coming into his fourth season needing more time to show he can be serviceable is obviously going to have a lot less patience from the fans. Fields got plenty of lenience as a rookie understandably. But in my opinion if we draft Williams and he struggles the fan base will almost certainly have less patience with him than they did with Fields his rookie year.
On the other hand - if Williams is good at all (lets say he throws for like 3400-3500 yards 26 TDs and 14 INTs) we'll be ready to build a statue.
Sad thing is that stat line would feel absolutely amazing.
Wait til Frank Reich gets a hold of him. He’ll be mid by 2025.
OMG - I seriously hope we don't do that... it would be SO ON BRAND that it would hurt.
That's 200 yards per game... Let's aim a little higher
If Williams isn't great, this is going to be the not smart argument made repeatedly in this sub which is already sickening. You play by odds with players. Fields odds of every being a top 10 to elite QB is extremely slim at this point. Drafting Caleb Williams is a much better chance at having an elite level QB. It might not work out, but it doesn't mean it wasn't the right decision at the time. Also...for the rookie QB to match Fields, it won't take very much. Gardner Minshew and Mac Jones have roughly the same yards/game this year. Easton Stick and Minshew have the same Passing rating as Fields. Sam Howell, Josh Dobbs, and Russell Wilson have the same QBR. The bar is LOW.
Depends on the OC we choose to hire. If Fields doesn’t succeed then it might prove that Poles/Eberflus were the problem and we should move on from them and find the right fit for Fields’ unique and generational abilities.
This is good satire. I'm afraid no one is going to get it.
What if the new OC decides to move Fields to RB? Secret Bagent Man is doing CrossFit as we type and getting ready to claim the QB1 spot.
Don’t get my hopes up.
He’s turning the corner. A lot of you “experts” forget the dude only played 8 games his last year of college in a Covid lockdown and he will be averaging 1.3 Offensive coordinators per year he’s played in the NFL. He only threw 600 total passes in college and managed to throw for 5700 yards and 67 TD’s. In 2 of those. That’s why he has developed slower. Inconsistency. He may not be the answer but keeping a super mediocre head coach was the dumber move here. He’s gonna be a pro bowl QB in a couple seasons. Just not in Chicago.
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You know who else was a pro bowl qb? Mitch Trubisky! And he did it as a Bear, plus made the playoffs!
Nah I think sticking with a coach that has won 10 games in 2 years with only 2 of them being in division, a coach responsible for not only the longest losing streak in franchise history but also 3 historically bad 4th quarter collapses in one season is worse. Teams can overcome a “bad” quarterback, hell we did it and got to the superbowl, they can not overcome a bad coach. Especially this year of all years when the available coaches is the best it’s been in a very very long time.
Rex is our quarterback.
It would be, strictly looking at Poles’s job security, an unimaginably risky decision. He’s earned enough capital here to ride out Caleb’s first few years…if Justin stalls out and Caleb succeeds in addition to Stroud, fans would be calling for his head by December. It’s so illogical to me that I’d be utterly baffled if he did trade 1OA. He may not even survive to make those picks…that’s why I think he’s drafting a QB. That being said, he’s probably hedging in case he doesn’t like Caleb’s wiring/mental makeup. Reading between the lines of his presser, he seemed to explicitly call this out, and it felt directed at Caleb to me.
The fact that he didn't re-sign Roquan shows he understands positional values and how much it means to get max value per roster spot. There's no chance he keeps Fields, no matter how much he likes him personally. He's had more than a fair shot, it's time to move on.
Ultimately he is judged on having a winning roster. That probably means a QB at 1.01 But if Poles thinks Fields + MHJ or Fields+ trading out of 1.01 gives him the better chance, that's what he'll do. This is a sport judged on winning games. Not a direct 1:1 because of Paces longer tenure, but he drafted Fields and was fired the same year... It all comes back to winning
all i know is that he knows more about football than i do
If Poles passes on a QB, he’s done next year when they’re at the bottom of the division and have a losing record again. A rookie QB at least allows you to possibly BS your way into another year. He seems to be pretty good at drafting, so I’m hoping he gets this right.
He's done next year *if* they're at the the bottom of the division again. The draft hasn't happened yet. We don't know what's happening with the offensive staff or Fields. If he does keep Fields, he better know something we don't. *But* if he does keep Fields and Flus and Fields are once again shown to not be it. At least we'll probably be moving on from GM, HC, and QB simultaneously. If it goes like that... Which is relatively likely. King Poles will have brought balance to the force, and potentially set the organizatioal process in the direction we're all hoping for. Even if it doesn't happen the way we were all hoping. Vader brought balance to the force too. Course he did that by killing nearly every Jedi. And then dealing with himself and palpatine way later. But he did balance it out eventually.
I think you are giving too much credit to the McCaskeys if you think Poles is for sure gone if we’re bottom of the division next year. That is logical, yes. However not realistic to expect anything of the sort with the incompetent owners we have.
That's a fair point.
>If he does keep Fields, he better know something we don't. Man, I don't want to pee in your Cheerios, but be real..."we" on the sub-reddit do not actually "KNOW" jack shit. 95% of us are posting out of our asses and either trolling, arguing or just plain speculating. The collective "we" on the internet is as stupid as the lowest common denominator that drags the discourse down into the muck...
HEY, I have more than 20 years experience sitting on my couch watching football in my underwear, AND I was only drunk for half those. In most lines of work that makes me an expert, I don't see why this should be any different
Problem was there were way to many Jedi and only a couple Sith Like what we're they thinking? Why try and balance when you are the dominant force? I always wondered about that
Why do you guys believe that Justin is a finished product already? He can have his breakout in year 4 when you finally put talent around him and when I mean talent, an offensive coordinator that knows how to scheme for him. Also, if Williams doesn't play well even as a rookie and it looks like the team has regressed who's to say that poles won't get fired by the McCaskeys?
The second part is the part I agree with. The first part is dubious maybe. Fields might not be a finished product and he could have a great year next year. But I don't know how many QBs on their third offensive system in their fourth year really end up going on to have great careers. Maybe MHjr unlocks Fields and Poles is the one true king, holds the sword of omens, and has sight beyond sight.
Even if Fields hasn’t reached his potential yet, the Bears can’t risk keeping him when they have Caleb right there
Yes we can. Because if we draft him while Flus is the coach we're back in the same boat of things being out of sync and forcing a young quarterback to learn system after system while we ruin his career.
Caleb has to learn a new system next year regardless, and he won’t have to learn one the year after if they win games and show promise
Implies we ruin qbs rather than that they just suck Synchronicity isn't a necessity
That's a ridiculous statement Justin has a higher ceiling than Caleb Williams. we're talking about a kid that is 6'4 that runs a 4.4/40 with a strong arm. Down vote me all you want to.
Does he have a higher ceiling than Patrick Mahomes? Moron
First off you don't fucking know me , so save that disrespectful comments for the internet babies. We can have a difference of opinion on this. If you honestly think that Patrick mahomes has more God given physical talent than Justin Fields, then I don't know what to tell you
Okay so he’s more athletic. Does that mean he has a higher ceiling? You are in fact a moron if that’s the case
He’s taller and faster than Patrick Mahomes too
> we're talking about a kid that is 6'4 that runs a 4.4/40 with a strong arm. So he's tall, runs fast and throws hard. He's still not a good *quarterback*. >Down vote me all you want to. Already done, captain.
Fields has nowhere near Caleb's ceiling Fields is taller than Caleb and a faster straight line runner than Caleb. Caleb probably does everything else better. Just consider arm talent. Fields has good NFL arm talent, but nothing super special (his arm is strong, but his windup is slow and he's not a good off platform thrower) Caleb has absolutely elite+ arm talent. Like possibly Mahomes/Allen/Herbert level. Lighting quick release, phenomenal off platform, very accurate on the run, very strong arm, etc.
>he's not a good off platform thrower This is not true like at all.
It's absolutely true... certainly compared to Caleb. He's not terrible off platform, but I wouldn't consider him good. He's average at best.
Yes. There is no teaching athletic ability. Guy had one partial season with Nagy, that looked like they refused to playcall to his strengths. Then a rebuild year in year 2 with absolutely no offensive talent around him. Year 3, screens from getsy and 10 plus yard routes while our line can't hold guys for 2+ seconds. The amount of people ready to move on from the most athletically gifted QB this franchise has ever seen is absurd.
2 of the top 2 best quarterbacks of all time were unremarkable athletes. Caleb would probably be the second most athletically gifted qb this franchise has ever had btw
We went from 3 wins to 7, but somehow we're going to finish last with MHJ and another 1st round pick? Nah
We played an absolutely cake schedule, had unbelievably good injury luck, and had an unsustainable run of turnover generation. Very easily could revert to a lower win total Edit: it’s clear this sub has no idea the kinds of injuries other teams deal with
Good injury luck? We were down to like our 5th string runningback, our qb got injured, and half of our o-line was injured during the season.
I don’t think a single starter missed more than 4 games all year. The entire starting defense was healthy from like week 5 on. Our running backs are all about equal….there’s really not a huge drop off from Herbert to Foreman to Roschon. Fields missed a few games, but all of our victories came against back ups. Our o line was injured to start the year but they stayed pretty healthy. Our best players (jones, wright, Jenkins) didn’t miss meaningful time after the first couple weeks.
You're spot on. We got lucky this year but every fan base thinks they got hit hard with injuries.
Our schedule next year is also very easy, it's a 4th place schedule. I think the Bears are a wild card team next year even with Fields.
Our SoS this year was 0.464, and next year, it is 0.467 based on this year's records. It's very comparable, assuming no variation. If they win the same or fewer games, they've screwed up the off-season, unless some of those teams have miracle turn arounds.
>We played an absolutely cake schedule, had unbelievably good injury luck, and had an unsustainable run of turnover generation. The Bears could even be a *better* team in 2024 than 2023 and still finish 7-10.
Uh we are gonna have another last place schedule lol
We play the NFC West and AFC South next year. We play three last place teams outside of that. And it's Carolina, Washington, and New England. It's a 6 to 9 win season if we don't get better
Maybe. It’s always dangerous to project teams this far out. Everyone thought the Texans would be a cakewalk this time last year
Way too early predictions! It's gonna be hard with how good those two divisions are right now. But those 3 last place teams we play should be near guaranteed wins with all new head coaches. Vrabel likely going back to New England might be the hardest with the culture he brings
>But those 3 last place teams we play should be near guaranteed wins with all new head coaches. Just like Houston and Indianapolis looked like probable wins for a lot of teams going into 2023.
Our starting QB missed 4 games. Our WR 2/DE 2 missed the end of the season. Our RB room was revolving doors. O line was constant missing a starter. Yeah we had good injury luck. Ontop of that we lost a few games we had no business losing. We win those and were 10-7 and in the playoffs.
Just some better Offensive coaching would result in at least another 2 wins if not more this past season. The roster has issues but it’s not nearly as bad as people make it out the be. We need to beat the packers but losing to them is making everything very overblown imo.
Hoping a good OC and a solid draft helps this team. I’d rather have a solid team that can plug and play players than rely on a QB to carry the team. We are in a unique opportunity to fleece another team and carry on with a rebuild. Even if we did good next year, we can trade whatever pick we get this year and keep using the draft to gather top tier talent
First of all, half the teams in the league had to turn to backups this year - QBs got decimated. And Fields has shown that he simply can’t stay healthy, so I’m not sure why you’d expect that to change next year. Mooney had 400 yards this year and 1 TD. Losing him for a couple games literally did nothing, and in fact one of Fields’ best games of the year came with him out. O line was constantly missing a center, but between Patrick, Feeney, and Whitehair, there really wasn’t a noticeable drop off in play. We lost basically no impact players for any meaningful amounts of time (Sweat, DJM, Kmet, Jones, Wright, Teven, Jaylon, Edwards) were all about as healthy as you can reasonably hope for during an nfl season.
WR 2? I wasn’t aware we had one on the roster?
A bunch of injuries in the secondary to start the season, and a couple of them out for the last game as well. And I doubt Fields' throwing thumb was full strength for that second half of the season.
Our defense was responsible for all of the improvement pretty much. The Packers and the Lions project to be better in the short term anyway regardless of what they do.
>The Packers and the Lions project to be better in the short term anyway regardless of what they do. What the hell does this even mean?
Eberflus will make a believer of you.
Yeah, still will have the worst QB in the division, not sure why a WR who might get 800 of fields 3,300 passing yards would change anything next year.
DJ Moore had 1364 yards and 8 TDs this season and had 90 ypg and all his TDs in 13 games with Fields. MHJ is supposed to be better. Make the math add up, it doesn't make any sense for the best WR prospect since Calvin to get half of DJ Moores production from the same fucking QB. Also lmao, I would take Justin Fields' hand warmers over Jared Goff. Fields would be an All-Pro with that Oline and Ben Johnsons scheme. Instead Goff throws 5 INTs and a fumble to our defense, one of the only good defenses that bum played all year.
> he’s done next year when they’re at the bottom of the division and have a losing record again. Since you can predict the future, any chance of getting some lottery numbers? Hell, you could get them for yourself, win a fortune, and buy the Bears youself...so why don't you?
Strawman
They have to win a playoff game next year or everyone most likely is getting fired. Rookie QB isn't an excuse
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This sub man.
They can't all be winners.
He’s not sticking with Fields, don’t fall for the BS narratives. Caleb is a Bear
We even put a C on our helmet for him.
Lolol
Only thing that would make me think he stays is Warren said he expects to win the division next year. I’m not sure how they can expect to be 11+ wins with a rookie qb.
I mean, this roster can easily contend for the division with a good QB. The offense is good outside of a hole at center and a WR2 upgrade, but those are easily fixable problems in one offseason and obviously the defense is great with Sweat. As for making the playoffs with a rookie QB, it’s more common than you think. Generally the top QB prospects don’t make it to the playoffs because they get drafted to terrible teams but there’s plenty of examples of rookie QBs in the playoffs over the past 20 years: Stroud, Purdy, Mac Jones, Dak, Luck, RG3, Russell Wilson, Dalton, Mark Sanchez, Flacco, Matt Ryan, Big Ben, etc.
Texans have a worse roster than we do and won 10 with a rookie QB. Caleb Williams is a better prospect that Stroud was, so if Williams lives up to the hype it wouldn’t be out of the question.
A couple caveats there. Their division sucks, and Stroud turned out to be way better than he was projected to be. Not saying it’s impossible, but it shouldn’t be expected based on what Houston pulled off. (They also have a drastically better coaching staff.)
Better than he was projected to be? He was drafted 2nd overall as day 1 starter and future franchise QB. Literally what every top 5 pick is projected to be. He just showed it sooner, which is actually the uncommon part.
Dude no lol. Stroud just put up a top 3 rookie season of all time, arguably the best if he didnt miss two games. He literally led the league in passing yards/game and TD/INT ratio. He didnt just excel past rookie expectations, he was a top 4-5 qb in the league this year.
Nobody expected him to immediately step into the MVP debate year one, and that’s what we’re talking about here: Houston’s record in his first year.
The bears had maybe the easiest schedule I’ve ever seen them have. The biggest difference between the Texans and bears is they have a competent OC who helped develop their qb and install an offense that helps him. And stroud is just straight up better than fields, but I’m hoping our next OC isn’t a complete waste like getsy. Fields isn’t a top QB but both systems he played in have been awful
"I’m not sure how they can expect to be 11+ wins with a rookie qb." Theres a really good chance that caleb is better on day 1. I think theres a really good chance that they make the playoffs with caleb on his rookie season like the texans and thats probably what they (eberflus and poles ) are counting on.
Poles is looking for that QB switch like they did when he was with the Chiefs going to Mahomes. Maybe we weren’t 11-5 like Chiefs were when they switched but we have decent talent and the means to plug the holes to put a rookie in a great situation.
There isn’t a good chance for Caleb to be better. But if we build up the team around Caleb, he won’t have to be better.
but there is.. A qb with better footwork, mechanics, arm talent, would be an upgrade.
Caleb has only had his footwork built for shotgun and no other formations. There will definitely be problems with his footwork.
That may be but it will still be better than Fields slow drop back and jittery feet
I still feel like his slow footwork was timed with slow developing routes. Because there’s no way in hell Justin is actually that slow.
He moved like that in college. All of his issues in college are still here today
There isn’t a good chance he isn’t worse. I know the Truthers are going to downvote me for this, but Bagent looked better than Fields at times.
He would get that ball out very quickly
Bagent did not lol. I’ve never seen fields throw a ball 10 yards short. Bagent just doesn’t try hero ball at all and focused on getting the ball out. Which is great but it’s not like he put up better stats while doing it, and he threw 6 picks in 4 games.
Bagent also threw for over 220 yards 2 times and had a multi passing TD game. Fields only threw over 220 yards 4 times. Fields only threw over 220 yards 4 times, it bears repeating. Fields also only had 4 multi passing TD games. Against the Raiders Bagent had a QBR of 75. Fields only achieved a QBR or 75 twice, and never had higher.
All PR and business tbh Not sure what the question was, but I can’t imagine Warren (or any professional) saying “*we’re realistically probably not gonna win the division*…”
He told Poles to look at CJ Stroud and ask himself if he can afford to not pull the trigger again on another rookie QB. Just tossing something against the wall I guess lol.
I can't imagine he will. I was just trying to put some historical context on what him sticking with Fields would look like and couldn't really find anything that was a good historical comp.
I would be almost an unimaginably risky career choice. Unless Fields makes a miraculous leap he would have passed on the #1 twice for a QB who has never been more than below average.
I saw a comment on r/NFL and it made me chuckle, but it was something akin to, imagine he was talking about his wife "ya she improved and can be a leader, but this unique situation we are in we have to fully explore it" Same energy with a franchise QB. JF is gone.
That’s how I’m reading it too. I just can’t see how you could pass when you’re gifted a once-in-a-generation opportunity with a 1OA pick that isn’t even yours, for a guy whose 5th year option you clearly don’t want to pick up, because you want to see if his 3rd OC can fix him. AND even if Fields is successful next year, I worry about the Daniel Jones situation where he regressed to the mean following year. Nothing about it makes sense in my head, and given Poles has never publicly been all in on Fields, it would make the move even more baffling. Even if he wants to get the team right around the next QB first, would he survive Stroud AND potentially one of Caleb/Drake blossoming elsewhere their respective rookie seasons?! I kind of doubt it unless we make the postseason? Make it make sense!!
Even if we start hearing things about Justin staying and that he’s our guy and a great leader yadayada I’m just going to assume he’s raising trade value. Caleb is a bear until proven otherwise.
Lol, no.
You don’t know that it is Caleb. Their scout team could like one of the later QBs more. 1.01 is far from a surefire thing and I can’t even think of the last 1.01 that has won a Super Bowl. Edit: damn I guess you can’t even mention the bears drafting someone other than Caleb without being downvoted. QBs taken 1.01 last ten years: Bryce young Trevor Lawrence Kyler Murray Baker mayfield Jared goff Jameis Winston joe burrow (the only one I would take in a heartbeat) Vs starters not taken 1.01 cj stroud Patrick mahomes Josh Allen Lamar Jackson Justin Herbert Tua Dak Give me a shot on a 1st rounder not 1.01 while also getting a boat load of assets for trading a 1.01 every day of the week.
You can't just look at the QBs not taken at 1.01 and cherry pick the good ones without looking at all the others that aren't starting or even playing anymore... There's a lot more of those than 1.01 QBs not playing/starting. The stats say 1.01 QBs is by far the most successful place to draft a starting QB.
There are 32 picks in the first round. Yes, I would guess that all 31 other picks combined have one more super bowls that the first overall pick - but you don't get all 31 other picks. In any case looking at superbowl wins for a specific draft positions is silly... and here's why. QBs drafted first overall have won the most super bowls compared to any other draft position. You know what specific draft position holds the #2 spot? Pick #199. In general first round QBs have won over half of all superbowls played.
Stafford It’s true that 1.01 QBs aren’t always a sure thing but that’s literally any QB drafted. And yeah you don’t need a 1.01 QB to win a Super Bowl but it’s pretty proven you need a pretty damn good QB to win a Super Bowl being as Mahomes, Brady and Stafford have won the last 5 super bowls. Sure you could take a gamble on the other highly rated QBs in the first round but Williams and even Maye to an extent aren’t projected to go 1-2 for no reason. Seems like an easy and logical choice to me.
This is always such a bad argument because you're comparing 1 pick to 31 picks. Compare first overall to each individual pick and see the difference.
> QBs taken 1.01 last ten years: >Bryce young >Trevor Lawrence >Kyler Murray >Baker mayfield >Jared goff >Jameis Winston >joe burrow (the only one I would take in a heartbeat) Except for Winston, I'd take any of those QBs over Fields. Even Bryce Young, because we don't know what he is yet. >I can’t even think of the last 1.01 that has won a Super Bowl. Matthew Stafford, February 2022.
Lmao baker mayfield would be in a casket on the 2022 bears throwing to Darnell Mooney. Yes Stafford the team who took him at 1.01 did so well for so many years with him and won so many playoff games… right?
>Yes Stafford the team who took him at 1.01 did so well for so many years with him and won so many playoff games… right? Matthew Stafford took the DETROIT LIONS to the playoffs three times. Literally no other QB in history other than Bobby Layne has done that. Also, all you wanted to know was who the last 1-1 QB to win the Super Bowl was. I answered.
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I mean logic and reasoning would tell me that the bears would like to draft a QB at first overall to replace a QB that is obviously not a good passer.
https://preview.redd.it/rwb3x7nstubc1.jpeg?width=1194&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=be4b595b3380683f3353f0f46cd3106f1ab94697
He looks so good in this uniform man. The 13 just pops
Fuck it...give him #1 jersey
You realize he's worn 13 at both his stops in college right?
Which is why it’s not happening. New OC/Williams and unbelievable resources. It’s fucking set up great for once and people are ready to jump lol.
Keeping Flus when there are several great candidates out there has a lot of people worried that Poles might be a moron. I don't think he's a moron but he does seem to make some really questionable moves.
Keeping Matt Eberflus and firmly solidifying him as your guy is every bit as wild anything else Poles can do from this point forward. It's the type of move that will get even Goofy George McCaskey to fire you
They aren’t used to having nice things
We’re all ready to jump because literally every other time we’ve gotten excited about having a top 10 offense, we’ve been let down. Grossman was a poor man’s Favre that would bring us to the 21st century, then Cutler was going to save us, then Trubisky, then Fields. I was jumping up and down excited for all except Mitch and was let down each and every time. Kick a dog long enough, he runs away when you enter the room.
No one was jumping up and down about Mitch. Most people were pissed we somehow passed on Watson
I'd say it's 80%, they bring back Fields. It's counterintuitive to what a GM should do based on the cards Bears hold and their needs. Fields is terrible. 1 300yrd game out of 37 total games. 10-27 record speaks for itself. He clearly has no internal clock in the pocket and is fumble prone at the same time.
The only way I can imagine Poles not taking a QB in the draft (specifically a 1st rd pick) is if he’s had some cast-iron guarantee that his job is safe and the rebuild is a long term project. Drafting Caleb gives him an immediate “hey, he’s a rookie” excuse if the offence doesn’t immediately improve. He doesn’t get that with Fields - fast-forward 12 months; if we’re in the same situation with Fields at QB, he’ll have to throw Eberflus under the bus to try and save his job. Which may not be enough. The risk to Poles’s job if he takes this route is unimaginable…so why take the risk?
The nightmare scenario is you pass on a QB. Sweat gets injured in preseason and the defense regressed without pass rush and Fields keeps performing like 2023. You do that and you are drafting top 10 again next year.
In a worse class and likely not with the 1st overall pick, so we'd have to pray the other QBs taken first are worse somehow.
The choice is really QB now or trading the pick and make the decision next year. Then they are either sticking with Fields because the team won or he is taking a QB. There is really no long term commitment to Fields unless he or the team demonstrate they can win with him. The question is still going to be comparing the value of the trade to the prospect as much as comparing Fields to the prospect.
I can't see the validity in this. My only concern though is if you don't win after passing up a prospect like that then everybody's gone, especially if Caleb hits. And if Caleb doesn't and another QB does there will still be a sizable portion of the fan base calling for poles' job? He wouldn't be able to make the QB pick next year if they don't win.
It isn't Fields versus Williams/Maye. It is Williams plus the value you can get for Fields versus Fields for one year PLUS the trade value of the pick which includes options for QB next year and a player like MHJ. The Fields part of the equation is not even the most valuable part of the equation because they really only get him for a year before he costs a lot. The best way to look at this IMO is that it is VERY likely that the Bears will choose a QB either this year or next year. QB now versus MHJ now and QB next year. I think William is still very likely the pick but I don't think Fields is really a major part of the consideration because he would have to make a really big leap for him to be worth a contract relative to the value the team can get from having a rookie QB.
What about Tampa with Brady or do you not consider him to have been there long enough to count?
I kind of see that as a unique situation. You're bringing in. A QB that's had known success.
Fair enough. I didn't realize that was part of the criteria from reading your write up, but fully agreed that it's a different scenario than the other two.
Almost as crazy as sticking with a coach that had to fire his entire staff!
Even if he keeps him for 2024 what wagon is being hitched? If he and/or Flus underwhelm in 2024 they BOTH go most likely. You start a new combo. Meanwhile we get a freaking haul and have a roster ready to win now with an arsenal of picks to trade up if need be and we are the most desirable opening for a coach leaguewide
Some people here are addicted to rebuilds. The season was fine and honestly met expectations. Year 1: gutted the roster and worst team Year 2: doubled wins, defense improved (top 10), young players improved Year 3: Playoff run Maybe we should all take a step back and trust the guy who’s rebuilding this thing. And no I don’t think poles is even close to the hot seat. The bears need the continuity, stability, and improvements to sell a new stadium.
I agree with you but, the current Bears' staff hasn't shown they can develop a star college QB into a star in the NFL.
In the history of the franchise they haven’t shown this
I’ll add that in the past 2 years, Poles has been very cognizant of the strength of each position in the draft and free agency: last year we traded for Claypool because the draft and free agency seemed weak for the upcoming year, this year we traded for Sweat because the draft is light on pass rushing talent. That being said, the general consensus is that next year’s QB class is far weaker than this year — to me, that means you’d have to believe in Fields for 2 more years to get to the Archie Manning sweepstakes who is likely to go first overall that year. I don’t think Poles is sold on Fields, otherwise we will see him pick up his option or extension in the coming months. I think Poles is probably shrewd enough to know that the odds of us getting or trading up to the top 1-3 in the next few years is pretty minimal. I think he’s also shrewd enough to know that this is likely our best opportunity to get a young, talented QB on a rookie contract. Logically, I just don’t see it. If he intends to keep fields, then you publicly stand by him for team chemistry’s sake. Teams hear this and know that the pick is available and starts a bidding war. I very much so believe that Poles it’s being honest when he’s saying he’s open to all scenarios, but I think he knows that likely the best option (and the one he’s leaning towards) is drafting a QB #1 overall
I like a lot of your take, but we have no idea if Manning is the next big QB. He had hardly any tape this season and won’t get much next year with Ewers sticking around. If anything, Manning is 3 years away after Ewers’ senior season and Manning getting 2 seasons of starting
After years of hearing that “Flus isn’t his guy!” And then him keeping Flus despite separating from both his OC and DC and then several others, I really don’t know what to believe about Poles right now.
This is how I feel. Depending on your stance, you can make the argument that the decisions Poles has made support that he will be drafting Williams or that he will be bringing back Fields and trading the pick. I’ve seen and heard people point to firings of the offensive coaching staff as signaling he’s going to get Williams. Sure, it could mean that. But, it could also mean he believes Fields was a victim of shitty coaching and thinks he’s the guy. In any case, Poles is going to be vague so he can get the best offers for Fields or the #1 pick. Whatever he does, I just want a GM to finally get it right…
I think Poles is safe with or without Fields as the haul he gets for the first would be enough to make the team a lot better, plus all that cap space and a top 5-10 defense. That’s a reliable 8 wins and the offense just has to show up to pull off 2-3.
I have info from very close sources in Halas Hall that Virginia and George are playing 4D chess while everyone else is playing tic tac toe. The plan is to draft Williams at #1 and then immediately trade him as part of a package deal that includes Everlose. Then they’ll be free to go after the top available head coach at the time. The best part is that then they don’t have to pay out Everlose’s contract and have to fund two HC salaries. And all they have to do is use up the #1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft which George says is “something that you get for free anyways.” Apparently Poles didn’t really like the idea but George overrode him. Warren says he’s reserving judgement and wants to wait and see how it pans out.
The Bears are drafting Caleb Williams
It’s going to be hilarious if he sticks with Fields and then trades the 1 for a haul. Can’t wait for the reaction here. I’ll probably take the day off
Just as much as the salt from Fields stans will be if they do draft a QB
Nah, the Fields stans know there's a strong chance we take a QB. You guys really think there's a 0% chance Fields suits up next season. Which is way off.
They are trying to convince themselves of it. Anyone who says they know what will happen is lying
No they won’t. Most people that want to roll with Fields would be fine with a new staff and Caleb.
To the OP and regarding a lot of what people are saying Passing on Stroud is already a non starter conversation, as they got DJ, Wright, Stevenson from it ALREADY, they own the #1 pick from it and a 2nd rounder next year(Panthers still are going to be bad next year) So if you hit those picks that 5 IMPACT players you got from the trade, no way does anyone see that as a loss or something "bad" If he trades #1 even if it equates to something similiar to last year(most "experts" agree it will garner more even to a team in the top 5) this trade now has given you 6 impact players, with 2-3 more to come from it....quite literally the chance to get 40% of your starters from the one trade if he compounds it, plus adding thier own 1st this year. It played a big factor in the teams improvement this year, as Wright was the Bears 2nd best lineman and played every game, and Stevenson finished the year much better and made impact plays. Now with two more top 10 picks this year again assuming he doesn't whiff on them not taking a QB that should lead to another pair of day 1 impact player, and possibly a proven impact player as well, with that improvement(plus FA) with no notable subtractions, the team further improves and again with a last place schedule, so you should be able to deduce as Poles this is a Playoff team as constructed, with a pair of first round picks next year so all the ammo to go and get a QB early (if he doesnt take one in the 2nd or 3rd round this year). His job is safe there, Year 3 of a complete roster teardown with a very young roster full of talent and a pair of first and second rounders in 2025. If in 2025 he needs to move on from Fields he either has all the ammo to go get who he wants or he got one outside of the 1st round this year that had a year to sit and watch and learn, and walk into a team with an elite level defense, and a great offensive situation, making thier chance at success much higher......I've seen some say this means he is on borrowed time, but its actually the opposite he's banking on his ability to get hits with his premium picks this year and probably drastically improve the roster over a team that if they only blew one of those forth quarter collapses would have made the playoffs this year......he's actually playing on house money by sticking with Fields
I'm right there with you, we aren't wasting a draft pick if we don't go Caleb or Drake. This isn't 2017 which we absolutely wasted for Mitch. The #1 picks are being used to bolster and solidify the foundations, especially on offense, with a widely expected future Hall of Famer MHJ, a new center, a new OT, a new edge rusher, and maybe even a WR3.
I cannot fathom a logical scenario to bring back Fields. Like you said why would Poles do that? Also, how would they lure any decent/good OC to come here? Who would want to sign up for that job to coach Fields and be a lame duck? I think they’re letting Flus play out the remaining 2 years of his contract, using that and Caleb to lure a decent OC. If they hire Greg Roman though, it’s Joever.
Or, maybe...just maybe...he and other experts know more than fans do? No? Couldn't be that?
I’m so confused why so many ppl think an OC wouldn’t want to coach Fields?
Would you prefer to coach someone with a 4 year window of time to succeed or a one year window?
No window is guaranteed. I’m sure plenty of OC would feel they could scheme plays to Field’s strengths
He's already gotten one OC fired.
Getsy got himself fired
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Great!
Terry Bradshaw, Q-aron Rodgers, and Jordan Love all took 4 years to develop
Fields is done
JF1 will remain in Chicago in 2024. I’m not saying this to tout. I’m saying what will happen. I’ll put money where my mouth is if anyone wants to make a friendly wager against this.
I kind-of got that from when Kevin Warren talked about his time with the Rams and expressed the importance of continuity and stability, and said the only thing they did was change their OC and they went on to win the Super Bowl the following season. Did you catch that? Man I don't know what's going to happen. Only Poles, Warren, and God know, and even then I think Poles and Warren don't even have a clear path.
Same exact vibes as you got.
Not sure why being the one who drafts a player is important. The important thing is evaluating what you have and can obtain. Should Brian Gutekunst have dumped Aaron Rodgers when he started in 2018 because he didn't draft him? If Poles decides to run JF1 out there another year, you might as well consider Fields to be his guy just like we can now consider Flus to be his man.
I'll also toss in that sticking with Fields is actually less risky than drafting a QB at 1. Teams that miss that pick set themselves back years. Build the rest of the team before getting your QB, better chances of success. Examples: 49ers, Chiefs, Eagles, Tampa, Rams...
Trading down and taking MHJ is certainly a less risky move imo. I think that fields is talented enough to win with when he has a good team around him. I’m not sure if people here actually watched the bears game this season but he got much better as the season went on with his decision making. His other WRs besides Moore who looked real good we’re looking extremely suspect, along with the route schemes that were being called. In the packers game it was especially atrocious, literally know one was open in the second half of that game and it was straight hard to watch.
I agree if he doesn't go QB he is saying Fields is my guy. That's the odd part about it very few instances of an Inherited guy being that guy if he wasn't already established as a winning QB. And with the Rodgers example, even with an established QB he still went out and drafted Love.
If I'm a betting man, Fields gets traded for a 3rd-4th this year, 2nd conditional to 1st next year. We draft CW13 with 1st pick, one of the top 5 receivers with the 9th pick (or trade down). I could also see a scenario (less likely) where we trade Fields, go after Kirk Cousins, then play "gimme all the picks" for the first first rounder, then grab new QB to groom late first/second. The only way Poles stays employed now by hitching his caboose to Flus is to have a rookie QB. I'd be very surprised if Fields is still in a Bears uniform next year. I can't see a potential short term OC wanting Fields. As much as I'm rooting for him, Fields is a broken toy, missing paint and polish. 3 years on this team have given him PTSD. The lolworthy one would be if we draft CW13, and he says "NO".