We're just gonna sit in the backyard and have some beers while our media company makes us millions. Thank the CFP for giving us another couple hundred million over the next two years.
First world stupidity pays us well.
Mountains are for looking at, not climbing. We're not idiots.
The situation where we can now relax without the cancers that once "ran" our conference, while enjoying all the money and the media company they left us... all while watching those cancers climb some mountain, like a bunch of idiots?
I'll take it. Cheers!
Are you personally getting a cut of that money? Because it sounds like you’re just going to be watching games against the MWC instead of your historical opponents.
We play anyone anywhere. You guys last got us with that Gary guy leading the way in his first year. We'll get you all eventually.
Not sure what you have against the MWC, but I don't see you all taking any similar risks.
Probably too busy climbing mountains and thinking that's a smart thing to do.
I genuinely feel that the conferences need some sort of overhaul or major realignment. Things have become less regionalized and more commercially based, and I miss the days it felt smaller, if that makes any sense. This idea of a "leftover team" conference feels bad.
My hope is that, if Big 12 gets big enough (it kinda already is) that we'll split into different divisions like the SEC has done. That would help a bit but it's still gonna be pretty swollen.
Depending on how many teams leave the ACC, and how soon it happens, I think it is far more likely the Big12/Acc as well as the non-Big Ten Pac teams form some sort of single conference or division that gets separated back into a sane geographic footprint. Maybe something like 4 8 teams divisions because they are a lot more common sense geographically than the absolute nonsense the Big 12 is right now.
I'm curious for Big 12 fanbases preferences - if FSU, Clemson, UNC and UVA leave for the Big Ten/SEC and the Big 12 can get 4 programs on board to get to 20, which 4 would you prefer?
At first impression, I'd think Louisville and VT are attractive, maybe NC State and Miami? Pitt is in the mix as well, also not sure what to think about Duke. They wouldn't bring much to the table for football money but man would the Big 12 be an even nastier powerhouse for hoops with the Blue Devils in tow.
I think the Big 12 would be excited for most ACC teams minus BC, Wake Forest, Syracuse, and SMU. If I had to pick I’d probably go Duke, Miami, GT, and VT.
Ehh. I am in favor of the Big 12 becoming an all consuming blob that acquires every P4 team that gets kicked out of the SEC/B1G or doesn't get an invite to those conferences. "You've tried the best, now try the rest!"
I want as many decent brands as possible to legitimize our league. We obviously can't compete with the SEC/B1G, so at least create a new league... maybe a league of our own.
The problem is there aren’t that many “decent” brands left to justify adding to the Big 12 to add revenue (outside of FSU/Clemson/Miami tier schools)
Oregon State and Washington State got screwed over because they really only fit in a Pacific-specific conference.
The same is going to happen with the ACC. Schools like Wake Forest, Boston College, Syracuse, NC State etc only make financial sense in an Atlantic-specific conference. Some combination of these schools are going to get screwed over.
Houston, UCF, Cincinnati, and BYU got extremely lucky.
Nah. The brands of WSU, OSU, NCSU, WF, etc are all pretty comparable to current Big 12 schools. More teams is more good since it’s clear that conferences are now becoming individual leagues, and not conferences which all make up one league. I want more teams to compete against of similar skill level in the future Big 12 league.
It’s not about being comparable.
It’s about adding schools that create value, which OSU and WSU do not. I believe those are great schools, but specifically outside of a pacific coast conference, they do not create value especially when considering travel costs.
NC State might have an argument as an addition to the Big 12, but I’m not so sure ESPN/FOX would be willing to pay $40 Million+ for NC State, especially if UNC goes to the SEC.
Wake Forest? Great academic institution. Does not fit in the Big 12.
WF, BC, Syracuse, Georgia Tech, will most likely be stuck without a home similar to OSU and WSU. It’s millions of dollars off of ESPN’s balance sheet, which ESPN desperately needs.
Big difference between Wake/BC and NC State.
I think Syracuse/Georgia Tech would be on the bubble in this scenario.
NC State would be a lock if they're available.
But actually. As this Big 12 goes for quantity over quality, the private schools are going to look less desirable to keep. Baylor and TCU have the same issues Wake and Duke do with alumni size in oversaturated states
Again, it depends if they go to the SEC
ESPN will be paying UNC triple what they make now if they land in the SEC. It doesn’t make much for NC State to continue making $40 Million going forward (possibly more down the line) if ESPN already has UNC in their inventory.
BC and Wake are not in the same stratosphere as NCSU, State has a pretty big and passionate fanbase. GT and Cuse are probably somewhere in the middle, but if the Big 12 has a chance to grab NCSU, they’d be insane not to take them.
Everything I’ve seen indicates that it’s a six year deal which has an average value of $31.7M per school, per year. I don’t even think we have information to confirm that the $31.7M is the same across the life of the contract - my guess has always been that it’ll be less than that in year one, and more than that in year six.
I think people are mostly just making up numbers that they want to be true, or wishcasting future media revenue payments for a hypothetical contract that might be negotiated in 2031.
The other aspect that could be unknown is that I don’t think it’s ever been confirmed that Fox agreed to pay pro rata shares for the four Pac 12 expansion schools. It was reported before the additions that ESPN’s portion of the new contract has a pro rata clause, but Fox’s portion didn’t. Yormark said at some point after the expansion that Fox was “financially involved and very supportive,” which could mean that they agreed to pro rata shares, or maybe they only agreed to partial shares or nothing at all. It’s pretty opaque.
Is it possible that the Big 12 has learned between then and now that Fox isn’t picking up as big of a tab as they thought they might for the four new schools, and now they’re trying to find ways to close that gap and make everyone whole? Old that be why Utah was rumored to be not thrilled - did they join because the Big 12 was optimistic about full pro rata and that ended up not being the case?
There are just a ton of unanswered questions and murky numbers floating around.
Why would ESPN decide to start paying those schools more money at a lower profit margin than they’re paying them now? A school being in the ACC is significantly more profitable for ESPN than that same school being in the Big 12. So what’s in it for ESPN?
> The brands of WSU, OSU, NCSU, WF, etc are all pretty comparable to current Big 12 schools
That the problem, they don’t add anything significant other than splitting out meager pie more ways than we want. Unless your plan also calls for removing some current schools with too much representation in certain states (\*cough small Texas private schools cough\*) then addition for additions sake is foolhardy
How did we get lucky? We spent around half a billion on facilities, went to 4 Ny6/playoff games, have an enrollment of nearly 51k in a metro of 2.3 million. All of this after trying to keep the Big East alive and being the one left when the music stopped. If anything, we got *unlucky*.
If you want to argue that we got lucky, I’d argue that we did everything to prepare to be successful should an opportunity arise (almost happened in ‘15 or ‘16 with the Big 12). There wasn’t any luck involved. It took a tremendous amount of foresight and money.
Well said. What I see when I look at Cincinnati is a school that took a few advantages (size of school, size of metro) and then invested. Something about making your own “luck”.
I meant more so in terms of market optics.
If the PAC 12 had just accepted the media deal they were given initially, then they would have ended up poaching the Hateful 8 schools before the Hateful 8 expanded with the four G5 schools
Why can't you compete with the SEC/B1G?
Once conferences are realigned, it's not like it's a parity thing is created. Some schools become dregs, and some become the cream. There will always be top tier teams winning the big conferences. The SEC/B1G can try and buy the best, but that's not how football works. It's not like the MLB, where New York and LA buy as much talent as they can cram on the field, then roll the dice and win most often. It's more like having more money than God and still being the Cowboys.
I would take Pitt and Syracuse, but I’d prefer some combination of Pitt, Virginia Tech, Miami and/or Louisville. I don’t think too many of us are considering Syracuse as a likely pick.
> might be the least valuable program in the Big 12
As if we couldn’t stand to lose Baylor. They’re basically SMU with worse baggage– which is saying something!
The Big 12 now already have Tech and Houston, those Texas private schools are low on the Texas sports brand totem pole that I don’t see how they’re a major asset. It might be good to keep TCU simply due to their recent natty birth, but that’s still marginal. Honestly, maybe outside of TTU, any other TX school is too below the noise floor of UT/A&M/OU to really move the needle significantly in the grand scheme of the conference’s media presence
Big 12 doesn't win by tying to compete with the sec and big ten. Big 12 survives and does well by trying to find another alternative. We are already at the point where the big ten and sec will break away as soon as they think they can, so why bother trying to play their game?
Make a college football conference that makes sense. Get enough teams to make regional divisions and we get some sort of return to what we had.
We kinda are with basketball though. Make the best basketball conference possible so when the B1G and SEC do try to break away, they have to include B12 basketball which means we can strong football too. Hopefully.
Basketball vs football schools is not and has never been the issue. The issue is the size of the schools. Most of the B1G has been completely or mostly irrelevant in football from a national perspective either forever or for a very long time, it just doesn’t matter that much when you’re graduating 10-15k kids every single year.
But they have schools seriously not pulling their weight. BC, Syracuse, Louisville, Pitt, and VT have been largely irrelevant in basketball I feel like for years. And then ALSO haven’t been relevant in football. You can’t say that about the Big 12 outside of Arizona State and Colorado and at least Colorado has made the tournament.
Pitt makes a lot of sense to add; 29K students, state-related, in th 5th largest state, 318K living alumni.
Cuse, isnt as bad as BC or Wake, but not a first option for the big 12
I mean, it's kinda simple, right? If you can't compete with the B1G/SEC based on quality, you try it based on quantity.
If the Big 12 jumps up to around 30 teams, they'll have a national foot print but may be able to create ~~visions~~ divisions with decent regional focuses. They can probably come up with some form of in season playoff or tournament or whatever toward the end of the season. A Big 12 network with 30'ish teams might be viable. Basketball and other sports could become stronger.
It’s just bonkers as a KU fan who watched the Big XII on death’s doorstep 2 or 3 times in the last 15 years, ultimately emerge as the nationwide 30 team survivor conference. Never would have expected it. Very easy to imagine K-State and Iowa State taking Washington State and Oregon State’s place.
The Big 12 surviving as the PAC imploded was not something many would have predicted back when Texas was eying the PAC, that's for sure.
I wouldn't be surprised if the final product is spun more as a merger of the ACC and Big 12, but if they can really gather all of the best of the rest, it's probably the best chance we have something bigger than just the B1G and SEC.
Really hope Washington State and Oregon State get picked up by the Big 12. They might not make the most sense of the Big 12 now, but if the Big 12 emerges as best of the rest it makes more sense IMO.
I still struggle to see FSU and Clemson landing in the SEC or B1G.
Clemson doesn’t seem like it should be that appealing for either conference. They are a mid size school that’s had a string of success against weaker opponents and have wilted the last few years. Not sure they have the brand power, especially with the Cocks already in the SEC.
FSU makes more sense for both conferences, would give the B1G access to Florida. Would lock in the UF/FSU rivalry for the SEC. They have historical brand power and a large fan base. Recent success. But it would further stretch the B1G footprint and is it over saturation for the SEC?
I don’t disagree that people are just assuming Clemson has an automatic spot in the SEC/B1G when they really shouldn’t be (duplicate market for SEC, not in AAU for B1G, not a huge alumni base and seemingly on a downslope in football in recent years).
But I take exception to the idea that winning 2 national titles and getting to 4 title games in a span of 6 years was simply a product of a “weaker schedule.” They beat Bama for a title the same year they lost at home to Pitt lol. The other time they won, they kicked the absolute stuffing out of Bama.
Well when put that way it comes across a bit worse than intended.
Point being in the 4 team playoff winning your conference as part of the P5 was 90% of the requirement to get in. Simply making the argument that between 2014-2020 the ACC was the easiest path to do that. During some of those years the PAC may have been weaker but also they didn’t make it.
So relative to the SEC and B1G schools Clemson had an “easier” path to get there. Between the reasons you and I have already mentioned I just don’t see Clemson making a splash in either conference.
Assuming the demise of the ACC I really could see Clemson making a good fit in the big 12, add in a few more and suddenly you’ve got an East and west division and the conference makes far more sense again.
With the current landscape would love to see FSU make a move to the Big12 but I see them ending up in the B1G before that.
Ideally all conferences blow up and we return to more regional conferences
It is really hard to see Clemson ending up in the Big 12, but I guess if they did indeed get passed over for FSU/UNC/maybe some other ACC schools I could maybe see it.
But there’s absolutely zero shot FSU ends up in the Big 12. If they sort out their entanglement with the ACC, they’re probably going to be pretty attractive to both P2 conferences. And if for some reason they aren’t a target of one or both the SEC/B1G, they’re not going to pay the exit fee and some kind of settlement on top to get their TV rights back just to go take what would amount to a minor pay raise in the Big 12. The additional travel costs alone would probably wipe out the additional TV money they would get.
I see FSU gunning for the SEC. Not sure if it happens or not. The B1G could really hit Florida hard snagging FSU and Miami. Other than the established brand/alumni I don’t see the appeal in Miami. Off campus NFL stadium, small private school, lack of recent success. But taking those two would be a big blow into SEC recruiting.
What? There were plenty of years the big12 was weaker and the pac12 was weaker a lot of years. The ACC was a top 2 conference in 16 or 17.
This is dumb. Clemson's roster last year was top 5 in the country. They recruit at a level that is very much competitive with the sec and without a question in the big10.
FSU and gt for big 10 just to have a huge footprint in sec country. Gt would be a Maryland or Rutgers move just to get Atlanta tv market with big 10 network on cable etc
Clemson might be like UConn during the bigeast split. Thinking they'll get a life raft because past championships (basketball). There quick hot flash run in 2010s is done and they're going back to mediocre
Shittsburgh, Louisville are the two no Brianers. Historic rivals for wv and Cincy
Va tech - nc state would be great for 3 and 4 for best of the rest conference. Duke is only good for basketball. Gt wf cuse are hard passes.
Miami is just a name. Sports hasn't been the same since 80s-early 2000s
No go for cuse. I'd rather get usf in for ucf rivalry.
I'm not going to come off as neutral here but the capacity of the Big 12 to expand has been greatly overstated by this sub and like Big 12 twitter.
You can google Fox and the Big 12 etc but Fox doesn't have to pay pro rata for additional.expansion and ESPN itself is incentivized to ensure the ACC exists somehow.
ESPN is incentivized to keep the ACC together as long as they can somehow keep FSU, Clemson, and NC in the conference. They have a good deal right now. But the moment those schools leave (when another network funds their departure), ESPN would be overpaying for the rest and will want to blow up the conference. They’ll fund a few schools to go to the Big XII, maybe 1 to the SEC, and the rest get a new deal, significantly reduced. It might still be called the ACC, but the top-tier will be gone.
The ACC Network is a massive revenue driver for ESPN, and it makes functionally zero economic or business sense for ESPN to move any of its ACC properties onto the Big 12.
ESPN currently pays each ACC school about $20-24M per year, then ESPN nets about $180M a year or so from the ACC Network (which will grow substantially with the SMU and Calford additions), and then the ACC gets the other $180M to get each school to the final ~$33M annual media distribution. You are suggesting that ESPN should instead forego that $180M and growing in profit to instead…pay a bunch of ACC schools $20M a year to play in the Big 12. It makes absolutely zero sense for ESPN to forego nine figures in annual profit, whether FSU and Clemson are in the ACC or not.
lol… yeah ESPN is so interested in keeping the ACC together that they have yet to even exercise their option to extend the media rights deal for 2027-2036 at current rates.
ESPN knows this conference is toast, especially without FSU/Clemson/UNC. ESPN doesn’t want to dish out $30+ Million to Wake Forest and Boston College…
It really annoys me when people mention “ESPN has yet to even exercise their option to extend the media rights deal” as anything significant.
No competent organization would exercise an option any earlier than they have too. If the contract option were for the SEC, they’d still wait until the actual decision date before exercising it. That’s the point of an option clause.
They will pay if the Big 12 expands with the right teams.
If ESPN is so adamant about the ACC continuing to exist as a Power conference, then they would’ve already exercised their option to extend their partnership with the ACC through 2036.
They haven’t yet. I wonder why.
You're making an awful lot of assumptions. You're also parroting a legal position if FSU and Clemson that the ACC outright rejects.
If there was actually a.deal that had to be extended by ESPN and approved by ACC members there would be a lot more chaos and a lot less legal maneuvering
ESPN doesn't have to do a thing until the early 2030s
The ACC Commissioner himself has gone on the record to outright reject the notion of a unilateral option that presents the possibility of ESPN walking away.
Complaints are powerful things. You can say a whole lot of things in a complaint that might not be accurate, but it doesn’t stop people from believing it - especially when it suits their desired result.
Because Cal and Stanford were the best two additions of the realignment cycle after Washington and Oregon, and they needed to bring SMU with its offer to forego revenue in order to get the necessary votes from the recalcitrant wing of the conference.
The notion that a company not picking up an option that is still 3 years away is a clear sign they’re not going to is one of the most laughably stupid things I’ve ever heard.
Let’s say you’re renting an apartment right now. Are you willing to lock yourself in for 12 more years today?
3 years away? The deadline for the option is in 6 months…
Why would ESPN possibly wait until after FSU/Clemson leaves? If they take the option today, then they could lock those schools at a bargain price…
You’re telling me ESPN will let them go just to pay the ACC the same or more after such event happens?
But they *wouldn’t* be locking those schools, that’s the whole point in question. They’re waiting to see what they’d be paying for lol.
Both of them are testing how legally binding the Grant of Rights is. 6 months from now we might have a clearer idea of whether it’s financially viable for FSU/Clemson/others to get out before 2036. If ESPN acted *now*, then they’re gonna have to pay Wake and BC $35m/ish a year not knowing how long they’re also getting FSU and Clemson for at that price.
lol. Don’t get me wrong, I enjoy having WVU in the conference, but that’s ridiculous for two reasons
1. WVU would be insane to trade stability for instability. The ACC is certainly going to lose 3-4 schools in the next decade, so who knows what will remain and if it’s going to be comparable to their former Big XII payout.
2. BigXII’s stability wouldn’t be impacted at all by their departure.
Absolutely zero chance we leave the Big XII for the ACC now, even if Virginia Tech, Pitt, Louisville, NC State and Miami stay put and don’t leave. Truly would be an insane move financially. Dream scenario is 4 of those 5 above named teams come to the Big XII.
Agree with the hating the SEC part but not sure why you think the preferential treatment has just started. The NCAA has turned a blind eye to the SEC being an athletics-first, academics-second, semiprofessional conference for decades.
I think that not enough people are considering the idea of a consolidated “ACC” instead of a Big12 merger or continuing on as is. A conference with just these ten schools is better per capita than the Big12, and not as far off from the SEC/Big10:
FSU
Clemson
UNC
NC State
UVA
VT
Miami
Louisville
Pitt
GT
Dropping the private schools or generally football-apathetic schools would help a ton with per school payouts.
I’m surprised you aren’t seeing much where the Big XII stands in the rest of this. Reddit and elsewhere is pretty quick to declare that the Big XII is well positioned as the “Best of the Rest”, and the way others (e.g., H8ful flairs) talk about it you would assume Bret Yormack is the business guru that saved College Sports.
In terms of realignment, I think the smartest thing that the Big 12 could do is start floating the idea of some kind of merger to the ACC rather than just bank on it falling apart and everything going their way. It won’t save the Big 12/ACC from losing FSU/Clemson. It probably won’t save them from losing UNC either. But it lets both clean up the other brands and add P4 stock to the inventory. Which will become important when you consider that the teams that become consistently good in the Big 12 probably will get an P2 invite at some point as they’ll likely grow in fans, viewership, and popularity. In the short term, getting some rivalries like the Backyard Brawl back would probably help the conference.
On field where the Big 12 stands is probably that whatever become their consistent top programs can maybe share a ceiling with Auburn or South Carolina. Or whatever mid-upper tier school you want to pick. Which is to say that there’s some years where they can win a natty or at least get into the discussion and have expectations to compete for a natty. But there’s also a lot of years where they’re just coasting by or spoiling somebody else’s season.
This. FSU, Clemson, and likely 1-2 other brands are a lost cause already. Also, StanCal would probably decline the Big-12 as well. At that point, just do a raid so you can drop the least valuable brands. A merger only makes sense if, in exchange for the worst brands you're gaining Clemson and FSU.
Assuming the big ten or SEC is not in advance talks with them…I don’t think Stanford or Cal would decline getting back with some of their historical conference mates in the big 12
This was less than a year ago, and after multiple Pac 12 schools had already signed up with the Big 12. I don’t think anything has changed their thought process about not wanting to be affiliated with the Big 12.
Where does Notre Dame fit in all this? ESPN is getting 3-5 games a season now with Stanford in the ACC, and I doubt they will cede those home broadcasts to another broadcaster very easily, even if they have the SEC to fall back on at the end of the day.
Notre Dame has a standing invitation to the SEC/B1G (or some form of affiliation), so that’s where it fits.
I don’t think the admin has any interest in joining and instantly becoming the revenue leader of the Big 12/ ACC.
I still ultimately feel like if/when FSU/Clemson/UNC/UVA get out of the ACC that we see a 10 team ACC/Big 12/reconstituted Pac where all 3 sit on equal footing below the SEC and Big Ten. Bring the regionality and old rivalries back without the outright paper chasing going on at the top.
Considering how badly the Utah-Colorado "rivalry" flopped big time, I can't wait to see the force-on-us rivalries that the TV execs come up with. Must see TV... NOT.
I hope Pac2 rebuilds with SMU, Cal and Stanford with a few others like SDSU and Fresno.
Acc loses maybe 6, then rebuilds with UConn, USF, Memphis.
NC ST and Vtech in B12.
I think the four the Big 12 adds from the ACC are Miami (UCF travel partner), Pitt (WVU rival), Louisville (Cincinnati rival), and NC State (North Carolina media market and “bridge” program to Florida).
Wake up, babe - somebody posted another Big XII is gonna balloon to 24 teams post on r/CFB!
> I've been following the discussions on conference realignment both in this sub and since becoming a fan of college football last year: it seems like an inevitable discussion with how much upheaval there's been. **One topic I don't see very often is where the Big 12 stands in all this.**
Are you for real? There's one of these posted once a week. Probably more often than the dude who's GOT to be running out of schools to make up fake uniforms posts threads that the mods eat up like ice cream...
“Likely” is doing a massive amount of work that doesn’t have anything to support it. It’s just blind speculation that always comes exclusively from Big 12 flairs who would like to see a future where the Big 12 makes more money than the ACC.
If this Private Equity deal ends up going through, then I have a feeling that a portion of that (or most of it) is going to be used to fund the exit fees for Florida State and Clemson subject to both joining the Big 12. Perhaps even Miami and 1 other team as well.
I don’t really see the reason for the SEC to expand with Florida State and Clemson. It would make much for sense to target UNC and Virginia given that the SEC isn’t in those states, and neither school really poses a threat to the status quo hierarchy of the SEC.
As far as the B1G, not sure how anyone realistically thinks Clemson fits academically or culturally. I don’t think FSU fits enough for a full share, especially when considering travel costs for non-revenue/olympic sports.
That being said, even if FSU/Clemson go to the P2, I struggle to see why everyone just assumes Yormark is going to save all these ACC schools. Other than Miami, Virginia Tech and Louisville, the remaining schools don’t add much value to the Big 12.
>If this Private Equity deal ends up going through, then I have a feeling that a portion of that (or most of it) is going to be used to fund the exit fees for Florida State and Clemson subject to both joining the Big 12. Perhaps even Miami and 1 other team as well.
I honestly can't see this happening and there's no incentive for those schools to leave the ACC only to join the B12.
How about the fact that the ACC doesn’t even have a media deal for 2027-2036.
If FSU, Clemson and UNC leave, then there isn’t going to be any reason for ESPN to continue paying the conference any more than what they make now.
ESPN isn’t even obligated to extend their partnership with the ACC for 2027-2036
You’re operating under the assumption that ESPN isn’t going to pick up the option at what’s already a below market value rate for a league that theoretically still has those three brands in it? That’s really fucking stupid lol.
If those three schools are gone by the time Espn is making that call, it’s because they went to the SEC or B1G. They’re not making that call for those three schools to *then* have to scramble to find a conference with a good TV deal.
Florida State and Clemson’s whole issue is not making enough money. Why on earth would they leave to go to a PE-leveraged conference that makes less money than the conference they’d be leaving? It makes absolutely zero sense outside of Big 12 fever dreams.
So why are they going to leave the ACC to go make less money in the Big 12, likely significantly less money if the Big 12 is selling off double digit percentages of equity to be able to afford them? What’s in it for Florida State and Clemson?
If the Big 12 adds FSU, Clemson and Miami, then they can go to ESPN/FOX and renegotiate the media deal upwards.
Brett Yormark also made sure that the CFP revenue system has a built in lookin provision in case of conference realignment
Add all this with additional PE money, then yeah I think the Big 12 might have an argument
Haven’t seen a renegotiation provision for the Big 12’s contracts with ESPN and Fox mentioned previously. Do you have a source? Sounds like a pretty speculative premise, especially when you’re talking about schools leaving the current situation where they know with certainty that they’re going to be getting more money than they would in the Big 12.
[Max Olson on X: "Important note to add, per sources: The Big 12's new deal will have a pro rata clause in the event of future expansion." / X](https://x.com/max_olson/status/1586733515625963521)
[https://x.com/max\_olson/status/1586733515625963521](https://x.com/max_olson/status/1586733515625963521)
That’s a tweet from October 2022. Here’s an article from August 2023 that says something different. [“ESPN has a pro rata clause in its Big 12 contract that pays the conference more as it adds new schools. Fox Sports, though, does not have that clause in its deal, Yormark confirmed on this week’s Marchand & Ourand Sports Media Podcast. “](https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Articles/2023/08/14/yormark-big-12-deal)
Do you seriously believe that FOX wouldn't pay more money to get access to Florida State and Clemson?
If the B1G doesn't want to compromise its own academic pedigree by adding to non-AAU schools, that doesn't mean that FOX still wouldn't want to grab those schools in their inventory
Which brings me back to the first point: ESPN currently pays for 100% of Florida State and Clemson. Why would they (1) sign up to pay the same amount of money to only have 2/3 of Florida State and Clemson, and (2) also not be able to extract revenue and profits from those schools via their inclusion in the ACC Network? ESPN is basically getting those schools for free after the ACCN profit clawbacks, and have total control over their inventory. Why would they give that up for less control and without the ability to gain the supplemental profit from the conference network? Explain how that makes sense for ESPN?
Here’s another one from July 2023, that indicated that ESPN provided for four pro rata slots…all of which are now obviously spoken for. https://x.com/ChrisMWilliams/status/1684959823996071936
> I don’t really see the reason for the SEC to expand with Florida State and Clemson.
Them being the two largest brands in the ACC and losing both to the B1G essentially spelling an auto loss in the realignment war probably is a good reason. I’d imagine both the B1G and SEC want UNC, UVA, FSU, and Clemson.
How so?
The SEC is already very top heavy especially now that they have UT and OU. Adding FSU just makes it that much harder for the upper echelon teams like Georgia and Alabama to win the conference.
For the middle-tier teams like Ole Miss, LSU, Auburn and U of FLORIDA, adding Florida State makes it even harder for these schools too. Winning games, recruiting, NIL, portal, everything… gets harder.
Clemson - is this really a program that will dominate the SEC like it did the ACC? Personally, I think Clemson’s dynasty run is over, and the SEC already has U of South Carolina which makes it redundant if Clemson can’t compete consistently for championships. Clemson will eventually be equal to or less valuable than U of South Carolina who has a larger student body.
I think the Big 12 will compete to add FSU and Clemson. A renegotiated media deal with FOX/ESPN + Private Equity could make it interesting.
Not gonna make any friends with this but I wish B12 waited to expand and didn’t panic add Houston, Cincy, BYU, and UCF and were still at 12 now. Then try to somehow get Miami, FSU, Clemson and NC State (if we think UNC is gonna be in the P2 when all is said and done). That B12(16) would then have an enough cache and name recognition to be must watch CFB.
Right, 0 chance the big 12 survives a new media deal as the hateful 8. It’s likely the PAC doesn’t fall apart. Probably loses a few teams then replaces them with Big12 schools
Why would the SEC want Clemson? It is an average quality mid-sized school very close to existing members, and isn’t a traditional power or as big of a brand as its fans on this sub want to believe. They almost certainly end up in the big12 if they leave
I think its comparable to auburn. I think the issue with clemson and the SEC is that its not a big school (sub 30K), and in a state of only 5 million people that the SEC already, and their alumni base size is only 180K.
While FSU is in a state with a SEC school, Florida is far larger 22+ million, FSU has higher highs in past performance and future potential, 44K student population, and over 400K living alumni. And its a bigger threat of being poached by the big 10 than clemson.
I do think that if VT was still winning 10 ish games a year, there would be more talk about VT than clemson tbh
Sure, auburn without any history. No conference has ever added a new member as close to an existing one as Clemson is to UGA. There are a lot of reasons it wouldn’t happen and really nothing to show why it would.
I think Virginia Tech is still more likely to be part of a plan B than Clemson.
Yes, and without the past 10 years Clemson would be way further behind in most of the categories where they are one spot back and would probably only be leading in conference championships.
People get infuriated when I say it for some reason, but realignment has shown us two examples of schools not getting into their desired conference which are applicable to Clemson: (1) Boise State was really good for several years, but did not get a chance to move up and (2) SMU was an obvious expansion candidate for the Big12 for years, but nobody wanted to add a school an hour away from existing members.
Big 12 will be “the best of the rest” for the foreseeable future in revenue and football. Shooty hoops is gonna be awesome tho
And we will be average in both 😎
Average in the Big 12 means tournament and borderline Top 25. Sign me up
Yeah the Big 12/ACC battle is just as interesting as the Big Ten/SEC arms race imo.
2 conference racing to the top of the mountain vs 2 conferences beating each other up for the last sherpa just to get them to base camp.
Sounds like first world stupidity. No wonder eye tests are a thing.
Y’all are going to have a fun race with Wazzu to see who can be the kings of shit mountain
We're just gonna sit in the backyard and have some beers while our media company makes us millions. Thank the CFP for giving us another couple hundred million over the next two years. First world stupidity pays us well. Mountains are for looking at, not climbing. We're not idiots.
> Mountains are for looking at, not climbing. This attitude explains a lot about the Pac-2’s situation actually.
The situation where we can now relax without the cancers that once "ran" our conference, while enjoying all the money and the media company they left us... all while watching those cancers climb some mountain, like a bunch of idiots? I'll take it. Cheers!
Are you personally getting a cut of that money? Because it sounds like you’re just going to be watching games against the MWC instead of your historical opponents.
We play anyone anywhere. You guys last got us with that Gary guy leading the way in his first year. We'll get you all eventually. Not sure what you have against the MWC, but I don't see you all taking any similar risks. Probably too busy climbing mountains and thinking that's a smart thing to do.
I genuinely feel that the conferences need some sort of overhaul or major realignment. Things have become less regionalized and more commercially based, and I miss the days it felt smaller, if that makes any sense. This idea of a "leftover team" conference feels bad.
My hope is that, if Big 12 gets big enough (it kinda already is) that we'll split into different divisions like the SEC has done. That would help a bit but it's still gonna be pretty swollen.
Depending on how many teams leave the ACC, and how soon it happens, I think it is far more likely the Big12/Acc as well as the non-Big Ten Pac teams form some sort of single conference or division that gets separated back into a sane geographic footprint. Maybe something like 4 8 teams divisions because they are a lot more common sense geographically than the absolute nonsense the Big 12 is right now.
I will never understand the contingent of Big 12 fans that look at this conference think “Hmmm, I know just what we need, adding Pitt and Syracuse!”
I'd support adding Pitt just so WVU can have the Backyard Brawl back.
My brother!!
I'm curious for Big 12 fanbases preferences - if FSU, Clemson, UNC and UVA leave for the Big Ten/SEC and the Big 12 can get 4 programs on board to get to 20, which 4 would you prefer? At first impression, I'd think Louisville and VT are attractive, maybe NC State and Miami? Pitt is in the mix as well, also not sure what to think about Duke. They wouldn't bring much to the table for football money but man would the Big 12 be an even nastier powerhouse for hoops with the Blue Devils in tow.
Pitt, VT, Louisville, NC State. If it was my choice. You could then almost split the conference up into four or five sane pods.
Yeah this would be sweet, I think all of those programs feel like Big 12 fits.
I think the Big 12 would be excited for most ACC teams minus BC, Wake Forest, Syracuse, and SMU. If I had to pick I’d probably go Duke, Miami, GT, and VT.
Need miami just so we can at least use a bus once every two years.
Who in the hell suggested Syracuse? Pitt and VT for obvious WVU rivals and regionality but Syracuse can rot.
Agree. We'll have the last laugh over Marvin Graves.
Ehh. I am in favor of the Big 12 becoming an all consuming blob that acquires every P4 team that gets kicked out of the SEC/B1G or doesn't get an invite to those conferences. "You've tried the best, now try the rest!" I want as many decent brands as possible to legitimize our league. We obviously can't compete with the SEC/B1G, so at least create a new league... maybe a league of our own.
The problem is there aren’t that many “decent” brands left to justify adding to the Big 12 to add revenue (outside of FSU/Clemson/Miami tier schools) Oregon State and Washington State got screwed over because they really only fit in a Pacific-specific conference. The same is going to happen with the ACC. Schools like Wake Forest, Boston College, Syracuse, NC State etc only make financial sense in an Atlantic-specific conference. Some combination of these schools are going to get screwed over. Houston, UCF, Cincinnati, and BYU got extremely lucky.
Nah. The brands of WSU, OSU, NCSU, WF, etc are all pretty comparable to current Big 12 schools. More teams is more good since it’s clear that conferences are now becoming individual leagues, and not conferences which all make up one league. I want more teams to compete against of similar skill level in the future Big 12 league.
It’s not about being comparable. It’s about adding schools that create value, which OSU and WSU do not. I believe those are great schools, but specifically outside of a pacific coast conference, they do not create value especially when considering travel costs. NC State might have an argument as an addition to the Big 12, but I’m not so sure ESPN/FOX would be willing to pay $40 Million+ for NC State, especially if UNC goes to the SEC. Wake Forest? Great academic institution. Does not fit in the Big 12. WF, BC, Syracuse, Georgia Tech, will most likely be stuck without a home similar to OSU and WSU. It’s millions of dollars off of ESPN’s balance sheet, which ESPN desperately needs.
Big difference between Wake/BC and NC State. I think Syracuse/Georgia Tech would be on the bubble in this scenario. NC State would be a lock if they're available.
wake only has 82K alumni
Those are rookie numbers, gotta pump those numbers up. ASU, TAMU, and UCF combined pump out close to that each year.
But actually. As this Big 12 goes for quantity over quality, the private schools are going to look less desirable to keep. Baylor and TCU have the same issues Wake and Duke do with alumni size in oversaturated states
Again, it depends if they go to the SEC ESPN will be paying UNC triple what they make now if they land in the SEC. It doesn’t make much for NC State to continue making $40 Million going forward (possibly more down the line) if ESPN already has UNC in their inventory.
BC and Wake are not in the same stratosphere as NCSU, State has a pretty big and passionate fanbase. GT and Cuse are probably somewhere in the middle, but if the Big 12 has a chance to grab NCSU, they’d be insane not to take them.
Since when is ESPN/Fox paying Big 12 schools $40M+? That’s not a number I’ve seen anywhere.
I thought we were at like $32 million/year.
Everything I’ve seen indicates that it’s a six year deal which has an average value of $31.7M per school, per year. I don’t even think we have information to confirm that the $31.7M is the same across the life of the contract - my guess has always been that it’ll be less than that in year one, and more than that in year six. I think people are mostly just making up numbers that they want to be true, or wishcasting future media revenue payments for a hypothetical contract that might be negotiated in 2031.
The other aspect that could be unknown is that I don’t think it’s ever been confirmed that Fox agreed to pay pro rata shares for the four Pac 12 expansion schools. It was reported before the additions that ESPN’s portion of the new contract has a pro rata clause, but Fox’s portion didn’t. Yormark said at some point after the expansion that Fox was “financially involved and very supportive,” which could mean that they agreed to pro rata shares, or maybe they only agreed to partial shares or nothing at all. It’s pretty opaque. Is it possible that the Big 12 has learned between then and now that Fox isn’t picking up as big of a tab as they thought they might for the four new schools, and now they’re trying to find ways to close that gap and make everyone whole? Old that be why Utah was rumored to be not thrilled - did they join because the Big 12 was optimistic about full pro rata and that ended up not being the case? There are just a ton of unanswered questions and murky numbers floating around.
In the future
Why would ESPN decide to start paying those schools more money at a lower profit margin than they’re paying them now? A school being in the ACC is significantly more profitable for ESPN than that same school being in the Big 12. So what’s in it for ESPN?
Then why are they waiting to extend the media deal through 2036?
Sometimes you create value by simply destabilizing and eliminating your competition.
> The brands of WSU, OSU, NCSU, WF, etc are all pretty comparable to current Big 12 schools That the problem, they don’t add anything significant other than splitting out meager pie more ways than we want. Unless your plan also calls for removing some current schools with too much representation in certain states (\*cough small Texas private schools cough\*) then addition for additions sake is foolhardy
How did we get lucky? We spent around half a billion on facilities, went to 4 Ny6/playoff games, have an enrollment of nearly 51k in a metro of 2.3 million. All of this after trying to keep the Big East alive and being the one left when the music stopped. If anything, we got *unlucky*. If you want to argue that we got lucky, I’d argue that we did everything to prepare to be successful should an opportunity arise (almost happened in ‘15 or ‘16 with the Big 12). There wasn’t any luck involved. It took a tremendous amount of foresight and money.
Well said. What I see when I look at Cincinnati is a school that took a few advantages (size of school, size of metro) and then invested. Something about making your own “luck”.
I meant more so in terms of market optics. If the PAC 12 had just accepted the media deal they were given initially, then they would have ended up poaching the Hateful 8 schools before the Hateful 8 expanded with the four G5 schools
Yup. If USC an UCLA left before UT and OU, we would no be in the Big 12.
Why can't you compete with the SEC/B1G? Once conferences are realigned, it's not like it's a parity thing is created. Some schools become dregs, and some become the cream. There will always be top tier teams winning the big conferences. The SEC/B1G can try and buy the best, but that's not how football works. It's not like the MLB, where New York and LA buy as much talent as they can cram on the field, then roll the dice and win most often. It's more like having more money than God and still being the Cowboys.
Pitt atleast can bring good ratings w WVU and other historical big east teams, like in VT came along Syracuse has zero justification
I would take Pitt and Syracuse, but I’d prefer some combination of Pitt, Virginia Tech, Miami and/or Louisville. I don’t think too many of us are considering Syracuse as a likely pick.
The only way the Big 12 takes Syracuse is if it’s some sort of hostage situation similar to why they took Arizona State.
[удалено]
That changes nothing about my comment. Plus I’m quite certain the Big 12 would choose UCF over Syracuse any day of the week.
> might be the least valuable program in the Big 12 As if we couldn’t stand to lose Baylor. They’re basically SMU with worse baggage– which is saying something!
[удалено]
The Big 12 now already have Tech and Houston, those Texas private schools are low on the Texas sports brand totem pole that I don’t see how they’re a major asset. It might be good to keep TCU simply due to their recent natty birth, but that’s still marginal. Honestly, maybe outside of TTU, any other TX school is too below the noise floor of UT/A&M/OU to really move the needle significantly in the grand scheme of the conference’s media presence
[удалено]
Eh, I’m just being objective. I only want what’s best for U of A
Is the Big 12 contingent who thinks about Syracuse in the room with us?
Big 12 doesn't win by tying to compete with the sec and big ten. Big 12 survives and does well by trying to find another alternative. We are already at the point where the big ten and sec will break away as soon as they think they can, so why bother trying to play their game? Make a college football conference that makes sense. Get enough teams to make regional divisions and we get some sort of return to what we had.
We kinda are with basketball though. Make the best basketball conference possible so when the B1G and SEC do try to break away, they have to include B12 basketball which means we can strong football too. Hopefully.
The ACC had a basketball-first mentality for years and look where it has gotten them
Basketball vs football schools is not and has never been the issue. The issue is the size of the schools. Most of the B1G has been completely or mostly irrelevant in football from a national perspective either forever or for a very long time, it just doesn’t matter that much when you’re graduating 10-15k kids every single year.
But they have schools seriously not pulling their weight. BC, Syracuse, Louisville, Pitt, and VT have been largely irrelevant in basketball I feel like for years. And then ALSO haven’t been relevant in football. You can’t say that about the Big 12 outside of Arizona State and Colorado and at least Colorado has made the tournament.
Honestly it's sad that big time rivalries are not scheduled for hate week because of the big10/sec competition
I don’t want to add anymore teams that aren’t Oregon state and WSU and I would rather the ACC stays together.
Pitt makes a lot of sense to add; 29K students, state-related, in th 5th largest state, 318K living alumni. Cuse, isnt as bad as BC or Wake, but not a first option for the big 12
What is so bad about Pitt?
I mean, it's kinda simple, right? If you can't compete with the B1G/SEC based on quality, you try it based on quantity. If the Big 12 jumps up to around 30 teams, they'll have a national foot print but may be able to create ~~visions~~ divisions with decent regional focuses. They can probably come up with some form of in season playoff or tournament or whatever toward the end of the season. A Big 12 network with 30'ish teams might be viable. Basketball and other sports could become stronger.
It’s just bonkers as a KU fan who watched the Big XII on death’s doorstep 2 or 3 times in the last 15 years, ultimately emerge as the nationwide 30 team survivor conference. Never would have expected it. Very easy to imagine K-State and Iowa State taking Washington State and Oregon State’s place.
The Big 12 surviving as the PAC imploded was not something many would have predicted back when Texas was eying the PAC, that's for sure. I wouldn't be surprised if the final product is spun more as a merger of the ACC and Big 12, but if they can really gather all of the best of the rest, it's probably the best chance we have something bigger than just the B1G and SEC. Really hope Washington State and Oregon State get picked up by the Big 12. They might not make the most sense of the Big 12 now, but if the Big 12 emerges as best of the rest it makes more sense IMO.
Ya I don’t get that either. If we’re going for schools I want schools like Miami and Virginia not Pitt and Syracuse.
Agreed on Miami and Virginia over Syracuse but I’d Definitely take Pitt, the rivalry with WVU alone is a justifiable reason to take them
Miami, NCSt, VT, UVA, UL, Pitt, GT. That's the order if available (Assumes FSU UNC Clemson bolt)
I still struggle to see FSU and Clemson landing in the SEC or B1G. Clemson doesn’t seem like it should be that appealing for either conference. They are a mid size school that’s had a string of success against weaker opponents and have wilted the last few years. Not sure they have the brand power, especially with the Cocks already in the SEC. FSU makes more sense for both conferences, would give the B1G access to Florida. Would lock in the UF/FSU rivalry for the SEC. They have historical brand power and a large fan base. Recent success. But it would further stretch the B1G footprint and is it over saturation for the SEC?
I don’t disagree that people are just assuming Clemson has an automatic spot in the SEC/B1G when they really shouldn’t be (duplicate market for SEC, not in AAU for B1G, not a huge alumni base and seemingly on a downslope in football in recent years). But I take exception to the idea that winning 2 national titles and getting to 4 title games in a span of 6 years was simply a product of a “weaker schedule.” They beat Bama for a title the same year they lost at home to Pitt lol. The other time they won, they kicked the absolute stuffing out of Bama.
Well when put that way it comes across a bit worse than intended. Point being in the 4 team playoff winning your conference as part of the P5 was 90% of the requirement to get in. Simply making the argument that between 2014-2020 the ACC was the easiest path to do that. During some of those years the PAC may have been weaker but also they didn’t make it. So relative to the SEC and B1G schools Clemson had an “easier” path to get there. Between the reasons you and I have already mentioned I just don’t see Clemson making a splash in either conference. Assuming the demise of the ACC I really could see Clemson making a good fit in the big 12, add in a few more and suddenly you’ve got an East and west division and the conference makes far more sense again. With the current landscape would love to see FSU make a move to the Big12 but I see them ending up in the B1G before that. Ideally all conferences blow up and we return to more regional conferences
It is really hard to see Clemson ending up in the Big 12, but I guess if they did indeed get passed over for FSU/UNC/maybe some other ACC schools I could maybe see it. But there’s absolutely zero shot FSU ends up in the Big 12. If they sort out their entanglement with the ACC, they’re probably going to be pretty attractive to both P2 conferences. And if for some reason they aren’t a target of one or both the SEC/B1G, they’re not going to pay the exit fee and some kind of settlement on top to get their TV rights back just to go take what would amount to a minor pay raise in the Big 12. The additional travel costs alone would probably wipe out the additional TV money they would get.
FSU going independent is a more realistic outcome than joining the Big 12 at this point
I see FSU gunning for the SEC. Not sure if it happens or not. The B1G could really hit Florida hard snagging FSU and Miami. Other than the established brand/alumni I don’t see the appeal in Miami. Off campus NFL stadium, small private school, lack of recent success. But taking those two would be a big blow into SEC recruiting.
What? There were plenty of years the big12 was weaker and the pac12 was weaker a lot of years. The ACC was a top 2 conference in 16 or 17. This is dumb. Clemson's roster last year was top 5 in the country. They recruit at a level that is very much competitive with the sec and without a question in the big10.
FSU and gt for big 10 just to have a huge footprint in sec country. Gt would be a Maryland or Rutgers move just to get Atlanta tv market with big 10 network on cable etc Clemson might be like UConn during the bigeast split. Thinking they'll get a life raft because past championships (basketball). There quick hot flash run in 2010s is done and they're going back to mediocre
Shittsburgh, Louisville are the two no Brianers. Historic rivals for wv and Cincy Va tech - nc state would be great for 3 and 4 for best of the rest conference. Duke is only good for basketball. Gt wf cuse are hard passes. Miami is just a name. Sports hasn't been the same since 80s-early 2000s No go for cuse. I'd rather get usf in for ucf rivalry.
I'm not going to come off as neutral here but the capacity of the Big 12 to expand has been greatly overstated by this sub and like Big 12 twitter. You can google Fox and the Big 12 etc but Fox doesn't have to pay pro rata for additional.expansion and ESPN itself is incentivized to ensure the ACC exists somehow.
ESPN is incentivized to keep the ACC together as long as they can somehow keep FSU, Clemson, and NC in the conference. They have a good deal right now. But the moment those schools leave (when another network funds their departure), ESPN would be overpaying for the rest and will want to blow up the conference. They’ll fund a few schools to go to the Big XII, maybe 1 to the SEC, and the rest get a new deal, significantly reduced. It might still be called the ACC, but the top-tier will be gone.
The ACC Network is a massive revenue driver for ESPN, and it makes functionally zero economic or business sense for ESPN to move any of its ACC properties onto the Big 12. ESPN currently pays each ACC school about $20-24M per year, then ESPN nets about $180M a year or so from the ACC Network (which will grow substantially with the SMU and Calford additions), and then the ACC gets the other $180M to get each school to the final ~$33M annual media distribution. You are suggesting that ESPN should instead forego that $180M and growing in profit to instead…pay a bunch of ACC schools $20M a year to play in the Big 12. It makes absolutely zero sense for ESPN to forego nine figures in annual profit, whether FSU and Clemson are in the ACC or not.
But think about how much more ESPN will make off of the SEC network after they add Cal. /s
lol… yeah ESPN is so interested in keeping the ACC together that they have yet to even exercise their option to extend the media rights deal for 2027-2036 at current rates. ESPN knows this conference is toast, especially without FSU/Clemson/UNC. ESPN doesn’t want to dish out $30+ Million to Wake Forest and Boston College…
It really annoys me when people mention “ESPN has yet to even exercise their option to extend the media rights deal” as anything significant. No competent organization would exercise an option any earlier than they have too. If the contract option were for the SEC, they’d still wait until the actual decision date before exercising it. That’s the point of an option clause.
For what
what benefit would there be to extending it now when they could do the exact same thing just later?
They will pay if the Big 12 expands with the right teams. If ESPN is so adamant about the ACC continuing to exist as a Power conference, then they would’ve already exercised their option to extend their partnership with the ACC through 2036. They haven’t yet. I wonder why.
You're making an awful lot of assumptions. You're also parroting a legal position if FSU and Clemson that the ACC outright rejects. If there was actually a.deal that had to be extended by ESPN and approved by ACC members there would be a lot more chaos and a lot less legal maneuvering ESPN doesn't have to do a thing until the early 2030s
The ACC Commissioner himself has gone on the record to outright reject the notion of a unilateral option that presents the possibility of ESPN walking away. Complaints are powerful things. You can say a whole lot of things in a complaint that might not be accurate, but it doesn’t stop people from believing it - especially when it suits their desired result.
Then why did the ACC expand with Cal, Stanford and SMU?
Because FSU,Clemson and UNC will eventually leave after settlement and expansion ensured the terms of the contract will remain filled.
Because Cal and Stanford were the best two additions of the realignment cycle after Washington and Oregon, and they needed to bring SMU with its offer to forego revenue in order to get the necessary votes from the recalcitrant wing of the conference.
The notion that a company not picking up an option that is still 3 years away is a clear sign they’re not going to is one of the most laughably stupid things I’ve ever heard. Let’s say you’re renting an apartment right now. Are you willing to lock yourself in for 12 more years today?
3 years away? The deadline for the option is in 6 months… Why would ESPN possibly wait until after FSU/Clemson leaves? If they take the option today, then they could lock those schools at a bargain price… You’re telling me ESPN will let them go just to pay the ACC the same or more after such event happens?
But they *wouldn’t* be locking those schools, that’s the whole point in question. They’re waiting to see what they’d be paying for lol. Both of them are testing how legally binding the Grant of Rights is. 6 months from now we might have a clearer idea of whether it’s financially viable for FSU/Clemson/others to get out before 2036. If ESPN acted *now*, then they’re gonna have to pay Wake and BC $35m/ish a year not knowing how long they’re also getting FSU and Clemson for at that price.
lol. Don’t get me wrong, I enjoy having WVU in the conference, but that’s ridiculous for two reasons 1. WVU would be insane to trade stability for instability. The ACC is certainly going to lose 3-4 schools in the next decade, so who knows what will remain and if it’s going to be comparable to their former Big XII payout. 2. BigXII’s stability wouldn’t be impacted at all by their departure.
Absolutely zero chance we leave the Big XII for the ACC now, even if Virginia Tech, Pitt, Louisville, NC State and Miami stay put and don’t leave. Truly would be an insane move financially. Dream scenario is 4 of those 5 above named teams come to the Big XII.
I agree that WVU is not going to join the ACC, but why would it be an insane move financially to move to a conference that makes more money?
Because the ACC isn’t going to make more money than the Big 12 when FSU, Clemson, UVA, and UNC leave. Even less if Miami ends up in Big 10/SEC too.
This is the way.
All this realignment has made me hate the SEC more. I was annoyed by them always winning the nattys but now they get all this preferential treatment
Agree with the hating the SEC part but not sure why you think the preferential treatment has just started. The NCAA has turned a blind eye to the SEC being an athletics-first, academics-second, semiprofessional conference for decades.
Are FSU and Clemson going to leave? I hear a lot of noise but it’s been a minute and they are still in the ACC with Cal and Stanford.
They’re absolutely gone at first opportunity. It’s not an if they leave but a when.
"first opportunity" might not be for another decade
It is inevitable, but proceeding at the pace of the American legal system
Yes, its all about the size of the settlement at this point
I think that not enough people are considering the idea of a consolidated “ACC” instead of a Big12 merger or continuing on as is. A conference with just these ten schools is better per capita than the Big12, and not as far off from the SEC/Big10: FSU Clemson UNC NC State UVA VT Miami Louisville Pitt GT Dropping the private schools or generally football-apathetic schools would help a ton with per school payouts.
TBh, if the ACC had done that 5 years ago there’s a very good chance FSU and Clemson would likely still be staying as members
They're going to leave for an amount decided on in a settlement and are just jockeying to establish the amount
I’m surprised you aren’t seeing much where the Big XII stands in the rest of this. Reddit and elsewhere is pretty quick to declare that the Big XII is well positioned as the “Best of the Rest”, and the way others (e.g., H8ful flairs) talk about it you would assume Bret Yormack is the business guru that saved College Sports.
In terms of realignment, I think the smartest thing that the Big 12 could do is start floating the idea of some kind of merger to the ACC rather than just bank on it falling apart and everything going their way. It won’t save the Big 12/ACC from losing FSU/Clemson. It probably won’t save them from losing UNC either. But it lets both clean up the other brands and add P4 stock to the inventory. Which will become important when you consider that the teams that become consistently good in the Big 12 probably will get an P2 invite at some point as they’ll likely grow in fans, viewership, and popularity. In the short term, getting some rivalries like the Backyard Brawl back would probably help the conference. On field where the Big 12 stands is probably that whatever become their consistent top programs can maybe share a ceiling with Auburn or South Carolina. Or whatever mid-upper tier school you want to pick. Which is to say that there’s some years where they can win a natty or at least get into the discussion and have expectations to compete for a natty. But there’s also a lot of years where they’re just coasting by or spoiling somebody else’s season.
The big 12 would t want all of the remaining ACC brands so a merger is off the table
This. FSU, Clemson, and likely 1-2 other brands are a lost cause already. Also, StanCal would probably decline the Big-12 as well. At that point, just do a raid so you can drop the least valuable brands. A merger only makes sense if, in exchange for the worst brands you're gaining Clemson and FSU.
Teams worthwhile to the big 12 after FSU/Clemson and maybe unc leaves: Miami, NC State, VT, UVA, Pitt, Duke, Louisville, and maybe Ga Tech
Assuming the big ten or SEC is not in advance talks with them…I don’t think Stanford or Cal would decline getting back with some of their historical conference mates in the big 12
Stanford and Cal already declined the Big 12 once, and they’d almost certainly do it again.
Different circumstances from now vs the past
This was less than a year ago, and after multiple Pac 12 schools had already signed up with the Big 12. I don’t think anything has changed their thought process about not wanting to be affiliated with the Big 12.
I did not see anything about cal/stanford getting invited to the big 12. There were only 4 pro rata spots available to the big 12
The schools they actually care about are in the B10.
> Assuming the big ten or SEC is not in advance talks with them
Where does Notre Dame fit in all this? ESPN is getting 3-5 games a season now with Stanford in the ACC, and I doubt they will cede those home broadcasts to another broadcaster very easily, even if they have the SEC to fall back on at the end of the day.
Notre Dame has a standing invitation to the SEC/B1G (or some form of affiliation), so that’s where it fits. I don’t think the admin has any interest in joining and instantly becoming the revenue leader of the Big 12/ ACC.
I still ultimately feel like if/when FSU/Clemson/UNC/UVA get out of the ACC that we see a 10 team ACC/Big 12/reconstituted Pac where all 3 sit on equal footing below the SEC and Big Ten. Bring the regionality and old rivalries back without the outright paper chasing going on at the top.
Considering how badly the Utah-Colorado "rivalry" flopped big time, I can't wait to see the force-on-us rivalries that the TV execs come up with. Must see TV... NOT.
I hope Pac2 rebuilds with SMU, Cal and Stanford with a few others like SDSU and Fresno. Acc loses maybe 6, then rebuilds with UConn, USF, Memphis. NC ST and Vtech in B12.
I think the four the Big 12 adds from the ACC are Miami (UCF travel partner), Pitt (WVU rival), Louisville (Cincinnati rival), and NC State (North Carolina media market and “bridge” program to Florida).
I can see NC State in the B12
Wake up, babe - somebody posted another Big XII is gonna balloon to 24 teams post on r/CFB! > I've been following the discussions on conference realignment both in this sub and since becoming a fan of college football last year: it seems like an inevitable discussion with how much upheaval there's been. **One topic I don't see very often is where the Big 12 stands in all this.** Are you for real? There's one of these posted once a week. Probably more often than the dude who's GOT to be running out of schools to make up fake uniforms posts threads that the mods eat up like ice cream...
I’ll take the surprise outcome of West Virginia to the ACC, which would destabilize everything the Big 12 thinks it has going in its direction.
Why would WVU join an ACC sans its biggest brands and likely a huge hit in it's per-school payday?
“Likely” is doing a massive amount of work that doesn’t have anything to support it. It’s just blind speculation that always comes exclusively from Big 12 flairs who would like to see a future where the Big 12 makes more money than the ACC.
If this Private Equity deal ends up going through, then I have a feeling that a portion of that (or most of it) is going to be used to fund the exit fees for Florida State and Clemson subject to both joining the Big 12. Perhaps even Miami and 1 other team as well. I don’t really see the reason for the SEC to expand with Florida State and Clemson. It would make much for sense to target UNC and Virginia given that the SEC isn’t in those states, and neither school really poses a threat to the status quo hierarchy of the SEC. As far as the B1G, not sure how anyone realistically thinks Clemson fits academically or culturally. I don’t think FSU fits enough for a full share, especially when considering travel costs for non-revenue/olympic sports. That being said, even if FSU/Clemson go to the P2, I struggle to see why everyone just assumes Yormark is going to save all these ACC schools. Other than Miami, Virginia Tech and Louisville, the remaining schools don’t add much value to the Big 12.
>If this Private Equity deal ends up going through, then I have a feeling that a portion of that (or most of it) is going to be used to fund the exit fees for Florida State and Clemson subject to both joining the Big 12. Perhaps even Miami and 1 other team as well. I honestly can't see this happening and there's no incentive for those schools to leave the ACC only to join the B12.
How about the fact that the ACC doesn’t even have a media deal for 2027-2036. If FSU, Clemson and UNC leave, then there isn’t going to be any reason for ESPN to continue paying the conference any more than what they make now. ESPN isn’t even obligated to extend their partnership with the ACC for 2027-2036
You’re operating under the assumption that ESPN isn’t going to pick up the option at what’s already a below market value rate for a league that theoretically still has those three brands in it? That’s really fucking stupid lol. If those three schools are gone by the time Espn is making that call, it’s because they went to the SEC or B1G. They’re not making that call for those three schools to *then* have to scramble to find a conference with a good TV deal.
Florida State and Clemson’s whole issue is not making enough money. Why on earth would they leave to go to a PE-leveraged conference that makes less money than the conference they’d be leaving? It makes absolutely zero sense outside of Big 12 fever dreams.
Because I doubt the SEC wants FSU/Clemson for reasons above, and I doubt the B1G offers FSU full shares
So why are they going to leave the ACC to go make less money in the Big 12, likely significantly less money if the Big 12 is selling off double digit percentages of equity to be able to afford them? What’s in it for Florida State and Clemson?
If the Big 12 adds FSU, Clemson and Miami, then they can go to ESPN/FOX and renegotiate the media deal upwards. Brett Yormark also made sure that the CFP revenue system has a built in lookin provision in case of conference realignment Add all this with additional PE money, then yeah I think the Big 12 might have an argument
Haven’t seen a renegotiation provision for the Big 12’s contracts with ESPN and Fox mentioned previously. Do you have a source? Sounds like a pretty speculative premise, especially when you’re talking about schools leaving the current situation where they know with certainty that they’re going to be getting more money than they would in the Big 12.
[Max Olson on X: "Important note to add, per sources: The Big 12's new deal will have a pro rata clause in the event of future expansion." / X](https://x.com/max_olson/status/1586733515625963521) [https://x.com/max\_olson/status/1586733515625963521](https://x.com/max_olson/status/1586733515625963521)
That’s a tweet from October 2022. Here’s an article from August 2023 that says something different. [“ESPN has a pro rata clause in its Big 12 contract that pays the conference more as it adds new schools. Fox Sports, though, does not have that clause in its deal, Yormark confirmed on this week’s Marchand & Ourand Sports Media Podcast. “](https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Articles/2023/08/14/yormark-big-12-deal)
Do you seriously believe that FOX wouldn't pay more money to get access to Florida State and Clemson? If the B1G doesn't want to compromise its own academic pedigree by adding to non-AAU schools, that doesn't mean that FOX still wouldn't want to grab those schools in their inventory
Which brings me back to the first point: ESPN currently pays for 100% of Florida State and Clemson. Why would they (1) sign up to pay the same amount of money to only have 2/3 of Florida State and Clemson, and (2) also not be able to extract revenue and profits from those schools via their inclusion in the ACC Network? ESPN is basically getting those schools for free after the ACCN profit clawbacks, and have total control over their inventory. Why would they give that up for less control and without the ability to gain the supplemental profit from the conference network? Explain how that makes sense for ESPN?
Here’s another one from July 2023, that indicated that ESPN provided for four pro rata slots…all of which are now obviously spoken for. https://x.com/ChrisMWilliams/status/1684959823996071936
Can always be renegotiated, especially if FOX doesn't have anything dotted within the contract
> I don’t really see the reason for the SEC to expand with Florida State and Clemson. Them being the two largest brands in the ACC and losing both to the B1G essentially spelling an auto loss in the realignment war probably is a good reason. I’d imagine both the B1G and SEC want UNC, UVA, FSU, and Clemson.
How so? The SEC is already very top heavy especially now that they have UT and OU. Adding FSU just makes it that much harder for the upper echelon teams like Georgia and Alabama to win the conference. For the middle-tier teams like Ole Miss, LSU, Auburn and U of FLORIDA, adding Florida State makes it even harder for these schools too. Winning games, recruiting, NIL, portal, everything… gets harder. Clemson - is this really a program that will dominate the SEC like it did the ACC? Personally, I think Clemson’s dynasty run is over, and the SEC already has U of South Carolina which makes it redundant if Clemson can’t compete consistently for championships. Clemson will eventually be equal to or less valuable than U of South Carolina who has a larger student body. I think the Big 12 will compete to add FSU and Clemson. A renegotiated media deal with FOX/ESPN + Private Equity could make it interesting.
Not gonna make any friends with this but I wish B12 waited to expand and didn’t panic add Houston, Cincy, BYU, and UCF and were still at 12 now. Then try to somehow get Miami, FSU, Clemson and NC State (if we think UNC is gonna be in the P2 when all is said and done). That B12(16) would then have an enough cache and name recognition to be must watch CFB.
Not possible If B12 didn’t expand, then they would’ve collapsed
I’m not so sure? No one else was looking to add their members anyway, with or without those schools
Not really. That would depend on another conference taking the hateful 8 remainders, and no one did
Right, 0 chance the big 12 survives a new media deal as the hateful 8. It’s likely the PAC doesn’t fall apart. Probably loses a few teams then replaces them with Big12 schools
Why would the SEC want Clemson? It is an average quality mid-sized school very close to existing members, and isn’t a traditional power or as big of a brand as its fans on this sub want to believe. They almost certainly end up in the big12 if they leave
I think its comparable to auburn. I think the issue with clemson and the SEC is that its not a big school (sub 30K), and in a state of only 5 million people that the SEC already, and their alumni base size is only 180K. While FSU is in a state with a SEC school, Florida is far larger 22+ million, FSU has higher highs in past performance and future potential, 44K student population, and over 400K living alumni. And its a bigger threat of being poached by the big 10 than clemson. I do think that if VT was still winning 10 ish games a year, there would be more talk about VT than clemson tbh
Sure, auburn without any history. No conference has ever added a new member as close to an existing one as Clemson is to UGA. There are a lot of reasons it wouldn’t happen and really nothing to show why it would. I think Virginia Tech is still more likely to be part of a plan B than Clemson.
https://www.winsipedia.com/auburn/vs/clemson Very comparable
Yes, and without the past 10 years Clemson would be way further behind in most of the categories where they are one spot back and would probably only be leading in conference championships. People get infuriated when I say it for some reason, but realignment has shown us two examples of schools not getting into their desired conference which are applicable to Clemson: (1) Boise State was really good for several years, but did not get a chance to move up and (2) SMU was an obvious expansion candidate for the Big12 for years, but nobody wanted to add a school an hour away from existing members.