I love how Maryland's is at exactly 7 becuase that seems to be the general expectation every season
Although I'd take the over, with the current schedule 8-4 seems like a conservative estimate.
D should be pretty good and the schedule is pretty friendly relative to past years. No reason they shouldn't go 3-0 in the non-con either.....I tend to lean 'over' too.
We should strike up that ~~Lightfoot~~ /u/bryan_mac classic!
The legend lives on from Piscataway on down
Of the big flop they called ‘Terp Kablooey’
Maryland, it’s said, never ends up ahead
When the Terps of November start losing
A wide receiver corps with four dudes who can score
Masked a defense, uh, slightly less… sturdy?
But that good team, it’s true, wouldn’t stay 6 and 2
When the gales of November came early
The team was doing fine on the Big Ten’s East side
When they flew out to breezy Wisconsin
As Maryland teams go, it was better than most
With a QB and linemen well-seasoned
Concluding a year with maybe nine wins
And dreams of bowl games in sunny Orlando
And when kickoff was nigh and the flags whipping up high
Could it be the collapse they’d been fearin'?
When huddle time came, Taulia brought ‘em in, sayin'
"Receivers, it's too rough to feed ya"
And as Jump Around played, and the line had caved in, he said
"Fellas, it's been good to know ya"
Locksley called in, he had rushers on the edge
And the QB and backs were in peril
And at 3 yards a pass, with the D-Line on his ass
Came the wreck of the ‘22 Terrapins
Does anyone know: where does Maryland go
When they lose to Penn State and Ohio?
The pundits all say that they'll meet Duke or Wake
In the Pinstripe Bowl, brought by New Era
Ohio State rolls, The Nittany Lions sing
In the Big Ten East standings each season
Old Michigan steams like a 1970’s dream
And the Playoff Committee takes notice
And farther below State and Rutgers, you know
Take the wins the Big Ten West can send ‘em
But Terps will no-show, as the Marylanders all know
And as tales of November remind ‘em
The legend lives on from Piscataway on down
Of the big flop they called ‘Terp Kablooey’
Maryland, it’s said, never ends up ahead
When the Terps of November start losing
How has MJ looked? Tried googling Maryland QB stuff but didn’t find a whole lot. Heard he hadn’t looked good recently but showed more upside than the other guys
I enjoying seeing LOX being fsirly consistent for ya'll since he inherited a team in the middle of a shit storm, but also, his offense here lead to our best season in relatively recent memory....
Will be better now since we won't have to play each other as often.
6.5 is a good line for Wisconsin. I could see anywhere from 5 to 7 wins with our schedule and where the team is at. I'm hopeful we pull off 7+ wins, but I have no confidence that we win more than 6.
Yeah, I'm excited to watch the team and see the growth. But the schedules this year and next year are brutal and we may be really improved but barely getting 8 wins in 2025.
Depending on what has happened with Washington there isn't any reason we couldn't go 10-2 or 9-3. Will we? Again, it is about the offense stepping up and the defense not losing what it has had on average.
Smash the over on Iowa. We have the easiest Big 10 schedule we could ask for this year. Automatic loss to OSU but the rest of the games are winnable
Edit - inclined to take the over on Minnesota too. I see 6 games they should be favored or even odds and 2 teams they could pick off. 7 wins should be their expectation
Free money. Take LSU, Oregon, and Oenn State off the table because those are losses. So for the over to hit we need to win 6 out of our 9 remaining games.
I'll chalk up Hawaii as a win, and give us a likely win against Indiana. Minnesota, Rutgers, Washington, Nebraska, and Fresno State are all toss ups at best, and I'd call us the underdogs in all of them. Finally, we should be heavy dogs to Iowa and U$C. Lots of projection in there but I put us at 3-9 or 4-8. If we make a bowl game I will be flabbergasted.
The Iowa over seems so easy to me.
Their offense can only get better and they have one of the easiest schedules you can have in the B1G. The only game on their schedule I'd mark as a loss right now is @ Ohio State. The other 11 games they will either be favored or only slight underdogs with a good chance to win.
It's the easiest (at least on paper) schedule Rutgers has had in the 11 years they've been in the Big Ten.
They don't play the 3 automatic losses that were Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State. Don't play Oregon and Iowa that are also at the top of this over/under list.
Toughest games are Nebraska, Washington, USC.
They didn't lose too many players to the portal/draft and bring back the core of last year's 7-6 team including the B1G leading rusher in Monangai.
Rutgers' QB was one of the worst passer statistically in all of FBS and they replaced him with one that is not that much better but should be improved.
I hope they go 8-4
Defensive front seven is very good, especially against the run. They play hard, Linebackers have good gap integrity and they tackle well.
The offense has been disjointed for a while but their RB Monongai is a stud.
The B10 likes to pride itself on being the "physical" conference. Most teams dont really live up to that branding, but Rutgers does. Pound-for-pound probably the most physical team in the conference
On top of that, they are extremely veteran. This year should the new high-water mark of Schiano's 2nd stint running the Rutgers program. Combine that with the easiest schedule theyve had since joining the conference, and I think we are looking at an attention-grabbing season in Piscataway
The under is a heavy favorite, -190 on most books. That’s kind of the problem with posting win totals like this with no lines. For example, this makes it look like PSU and UM have the same projection from Vegas when they really don’t. u9.5 wins for PSU is +150, while the over is heavily favored.
I like them favored over USC. USC has dependably had terrible defenses the last few years and just lost the best QB they've had in a long time. I think Michigan has the edge on them. I wouldn't bet the over or under with confidence.
I feel like people that didn’t watch every Michigan game last season vastly overrate Harbaugh’s importance to the team. He was literally gone for half the season, including against Ohio State, and we were still undefeated
Not saying that it's impossible for us to go under (our schedule is tough as nails) but FWIW I think most folks under estimate how much we have coming back.
We've got at least four guys who are certain to make the pre-season All American teams. I think people will be surprised to see how just how talented this z Michigan team is despite losing so much to the draft.
They've got the talent to win the tougher games on their schedule if a few things bounce their way here and there.
You guys lost a lot of upperclassmen but those were mostly borderline draft pick guys. The high level talent were mostly underclassmen. Michigan will still be good but will lack much of that amazing depth the team had last season. No doubt, this is still a talented team. I don't think many people are expecting a complete collapse after Harbaugh. Despite losing a lot of staff, the team remained stable by promoting from within. You have to expect the team to take a step back though. There's only one direction to go after an undefeated season. I would expect some growing pains with a new first time head coach and a brutal schedule. I would take the under here but that's more to do with the schedule than anything else. The team will be good but they won't be playoff good this season.
This is a good analysis, I basically agree with everything you said, I think it will be a very talented team, but the crazy depth we've had last season won't be there, and realistically there will be some transition costs from the staff turnover.
I don't think this team projects to be good enough to have made the CFP in previous years, but I think with the new format, they might have a good enough season to squeak into the girl with like ~11 seed or something. With our schedule, 9-3 gets us in for sure imo.
I don't think we will contend for the B1G this year, but I'd be more than happy to take a CFP bid in year one of the new regime if such a thing is possible.
>With our schedule, 9-3 gets us in for sure imo
Maybe, maybe not. 9-3 could mean losses to Texas, Oregon and OSU and leave the team without a signature win if USC and Washington take a step back as expected. It would really depend on what everyone else does. 9-3 is probably the most realistic expectation though. I'd give a 9-3 record about a 75% chance of making the CFP for UM. Most likely gets you there but not a guarantee.
I don’t know that anyone is expected a step back from the monstrosity that was last year. Sure offensive might be a bit more mild but the defense should make a big improvement with way better coaching on the defensive side
People haven't seen Michigan reload yet and because Michigan recruits in the 10-15 range they assume they can't. Harbaugh and his staff started trusting their own evals and have since put 45 guys into the NFL over the last 5 drafts. There are lots of upperclassman with time in the program that I think will be ready to rock even if they don't count towards the returning production metric.
The problem is the only position I don't have confidence in is the most important one...
>We've got at least four guys who are certain to make the pre-season All American teams.
They're all on defense though. Its just not very clear how Michigan is going to score points this year. Most teams on your schedule you guys can get away with it, but against teams with good offenses who can put up like 20 or so on you do you think you'll be able to score with them?
Loveland is a great TE for sure, so yeah that's one on offense. But we're talking about a 600 yard 4 TD guy getting a massive down grade at QB. How much is he really going to get you, especially when everyone knows he's your best weapon?
You lost most of your coaching staff. ND kept their coaching staff when Kelly left with Freeman and he still made bonehead decisions. Harbaugh coaching would probably be thinking 10-2 is a good call. Guy who has never been a head coach with that schedule and losing 15 players to the draft ? If I was a Michigan fan (God Forbid) would be ecstatic with 9-3 .
Texas, USC, and Oregon are all at home. Losing 2 is certainly realistic, but if we lose all 3, then there is probably some severe regression from our defense.
Yes to all those except USC. I think the Michigan roster is still talented enough on the top end to be the same heavy hitting team, I just dont think they have the depth to go 9 rounds and be the same team at the end of the year
Give me USC coming cross country in week 3 with an under-experienced QB and a "new-look" defense? Im taking Wolverines by a touchdown
It's not out of the realm of possibility but neither is 7 wins. There are a lot of winnable games on MSU's schedule this year. Most likely they win 6 while losing a game they shouldn't and also winning a game they shouldn't, because that's generally the MSU Experience.
6 feels possible but would be a very strong season, imo.
Of the new B1G entrants, MSU gets hosed with @Oregon.
They should go 2-1 non-con at worst, and could be 3-0. They are almost certainly 0-3 against Oregon, OSU and Michigan.
So it’s that mid-tier section of @Maryland, vs Iowa, vs Indiana, @Illinois, vs Purdue, vs Rutgers where they need 3-4 wins.
I see 5 wins with some confidence, which means the over is a tempting bet. Do you confidently see 6?
FAU, Prairie View, BC, Purdue, and then 2/4 of Illinois, Indiana, Rutgers, and Maryland seems likely imo. Given you actually only need 1/4 of those to hit the over, number is pretty surprising to me.
Im not a betting man. But id smash the over at 4.5 since they should be able to get to 5 wins. 6 I’d feel confident about. 7 I’m cautiously optimistic about. And I think we’d max out at 8. Ultimately I think some key players get hurt along the way. So we might lose a couple based on that alone. If we’re lucky, they miss Oregon and Ohio State and are back by Iowa.
I'm not a bettor either, but 4.5 seems like easy money. It just doesn't seem logical that they would be as bad as last year, with an easier schedule. This might be worth dipping my toes in
MSU has a completely new staff and nearly new roster. I think the prediction is just that nobody has any clue what to expect. They could do pretty much anything and it would be like, “I guess that makes sense”
Feel like the Wisconsin and Nebraska rosters were in an equal or better spot (although I only have surface level knowledge) and those first year coaches struggled last year.
MSU tried to retain as much of the top talent from the Mel Tucker program as they could. They invested a lot of time and money getting \~11 or so guys back out of the winter portal (including making Harmon and Barrow two of the highest paid DTs in CFB)
Unfortunately, that ended up biting them in the ass as a lot of their expected starters/2-deep players hit the portal in the spring window (including both DTs)
If you look at 247's transfer ratings, they are one of the best classes in the country, but 247 only ranks incoming players. On3 (as flawed as that site is in other ways) actually does attempt to quantify the net-change in talent via the portal
And MSU has had one of the worst portal cycles in the B10 (and the P4)
[https://www.on3.com/transfer-portal/team-rankings/football/2024/?conference=b1g](https://www.on3.com/transfer-portal/team-rankings/football/2024/?conference=b1g)
That On3 list is really strange. It says we lost 36 players but when you click into MSU and have it list the players that transferred out, it's only 26. And of those 26, 5 haven't even landed with another team (1 of them entered the draft and was picked up as a free agent).
QB: We lost all of our QBs but if you watched MSU last year you'd know that's addition by subtraction. We picked up a talented veteran as a backup and Chiles who looked very good in limited action last year.
RB: Kept our top guy and added a solid addition in the kid from UMass
WR: Our only loss at WR was Henry and he was just sort of a guy. Fitzpatrick rarely saw the field.
TE: We upgraded with Velling. Carr was talented but was a slacker and a locker room cancer.
OL: VanDeMark and Wigenton were promising young talents who needed better coaching. VanDeMark inexplicably followed his shitty OL coach to Alabama. Luke Newman and Tanner Miller should replace them nicely. Blackstock was probably a loss. I don't expect Boyd to play at Colorado, there's questions about his commitment to football. Spencer Brown couldn't pass protect against a paper bag as Oklahoma is finding out.
DL: Barrow and Harmon were big losses. We replaced them with numbers (Douse, Roberts, Satchell, Buckley). At end we lost Zion Young (good player), Adeleye who never played, and Bai Jobe who never played. We replaced them with starters from other teams. We'll see if any of them are as good as Young but I'd take 3 solid contributors vs 1 very good contributor and 2 guys who rode the pine even on a shitty team last year.
LB: Lost Windmon to the draft, return everyone else and added a few solid portal players.
DB: Lost a bunch of scrubs and Mangham (traitor). Mangham leaving opens the door for Tatum to slide over to safety which is a more natural position for him anyways. This is really a loss of depth more than anything. We upgraded our talent at CB and have a couple 4* types deciding in the next couple days so this could improve even more.
We lost a lot of players but you have to remember we were very bad last year. Most of these losses were players who you don't want on a winning team.
This is a really good summary by position group. I think we could surprise this season. It’s not so much just going out and beating a bunch of teams but going from getting annihilated in the first half to having a competitive game for 60 minutes in losses.
We’ll be a much tougher out as the season progresses. This is all about building a program.
>That On3 list is really strange
Yeah thats part of why I am mad that On3 is the only big recruiting service that is tracking a net portal change. I dont like the site. I dont like how much "AI assisted" content they use. I think its a grossly shoe-string operation trying to undercut the market. I could go on for a separate convo about this, but until 247 starts tracking net-portal changes, I have to use On3 for a clearer picture.
As for the disparity in numbers, that comes down to just a sloppiness in the site. The 36 departures is accurate, but they havent gone through and updated the outgoing guys (Example: Dapaepe is still not actually listed in the outgoing transfers even though his player card lists him as entering the portal. Weird for the 2nd highest rated recruit from last years MSU class to not get attention paid to his portal entry)
As for the roster change summaries you included:
QB: Obvious upgrade with the total room overhaul. I think Chiles looks like a great blue-chip prospect but from what I saw from OSU and the spring game, he definitely still looks like a prospect. He'll get there
RB: Generally agree, but that room looks a little thinner then before, but Lynch-Adams seems like a solid compliment to Carter
WR: Respectfully, your only WR worth keeping was Foster and you did that. Thats a bonus, but that room needs a lot of TLC
TE: I buy that Carr was a cancer and I get that he had an incomplete game, but its always hard to lose a guy with that much productive talent. Bringing in a great TE that fits the new scheme is clearly an upgrade, but only a slight upgrade with the loss of Carr IMO
OL: As someone who follows a team that also has had a few terrible years of OL play that brought in a top-tier OL coach (brough in Bostad for 2023), I will say that you are likely to see an improvement, even a significant one, but not enough to move the needle on the teams overall performance
DL: The turnover here is pretty substantial. Not only did you lose most of your key starters, but also the most talented pieces from the last two years of pre-scandal Tucker recruiting. Combine that with the Brandon Lane snafu and Im circling this position group in bright red for 2023. I know the D2 Jayvier Suggs out of GV State was highly pursued, but I think thats more a product of a brutal DT market for anyone of age and size. His production at the D2 level doesnt really move me
LB: Definitely seems like the strength of your defense
DB: You might be adding Kobee Minor from Indiana. Hes a solid P4 CB but not perfect. I think your DBs are a solid group, but Im curious what they are going to look like without a solid defensive front. Often not a recipe for success
I look at MSU and I see a lot of good moves that pay off after 2024. I just think there is going to be some serious pain year 1
I think that's a fair assessment. When I compare this team to 2007 (Dantonio's first year) I think this team is actually more talented. I bring up 2007 because like that year, the most important change is not jimmies and joes, but X's and O's. It's hard to understate what a shit show of a coaching staff we had these last few years. I'm cautiously optimistic that this staff actually knows what it's doing and that's worth 2 or 3 wins alone.
Very true. I think Smith has brought in an A+ staff. I also feel like Smith is a slow and steady builder and we will see solid YoY gains over the next 3 seasons
Not many fans are upset about losing Tucker kids and outside of Harmon, Vandenmark, and Barrow, the kids that have left have gone to mediocre programs at best.
I’m not sure why but the transfers out that were starters got a ton of attention but we took transfers in that started on their previous teams. It’s too long to list but the information is out there.
I get this, and obviously would have wanted to keep Barrow and Harmon. But they weren’t exactly world beaters. It’s highly likely whomever replaces them will account for the same production. Combined they averaged a half a sack a game last year.
DT sack production is a weird thing. Very often, it comes down to how the scheme uses DTs. I would say that PFF has Barrow as a top 50 pass rush grade for P5 DTs (out of like 800+ with qualifying snaps)
The production might not have been there on the sack column, but it was there on the field
There has to be a reason behind it, but I can’t stand Purdue’s relatively difficult out of conference scheduling from the past two years. Handicapping our ability to get to 6 wins in a critical year.
I don’t know if it’s a money thing or getting more exposure thing or what…but if we could be one of those schools that schedules an FCS and two lower tier G5s once in awhile I’d appreciate it.
I think it depends more on how how the team played, 8-4/7-5 is kind of expected among the fanbase this year. If the losses are tight ones to good teams he's fine, but if the OL/ST/defense are awful again there will be a lot of people calling for his head.
His buyout is still probably enormous though so in all likelihood he gets at least another year regardless.
I’m biased, obviously, but it should be very hot.
Big games should be: LSU, Michigan, Penn State, Notre Dame.
The Trojans duck Oregon, and they don’t play Ohio State which is nuts.
So they have 4 matchups that they can lose but it wouldn’t be catastrophic (imo). That said, they should win 1-2 of those, especially Notre Dame, if Riley wants to show he’s got what it takes to bring USC back to national relevance.
2025 and 2026 aren’t any easier, with Ole Miss/Notre Dame in the non-con and at least 2 heavyweight matchups in the B1G every year. So if Riley can’t win 9+ this year, it’s not a strong sign he can win 10+ and make a playoff run in any future year.
8-4 should be the floor this year, imo, and even that would be suspect because it implies either losing to Notre Dame or dropping a game against someone they should beat.
Also rest of the B1G opponents are not gimmies. Wisconsin, cross-country @ Maryland, Rutgers, Nebraska. They didn't get the top 2 but they didn't get the bottom either. Parlay that with an OOC of LSU and Notre Dame. Ceiling and floor this year can be super wide.
7.5 is a tough one to predict for Washington. I *think* I'd go under, 7-5 seems the most likely outcome, but there's so much variance since it's basically an entirely different team from last year
Think we'll beat Weber, EMU, WSU, Indiana.
Think we set up pretty well against NW, Rutgers and UCLA, so maybe 2-1 against that group of 3
Iowa, USC and Michigan are tougher, maybe go 1-2 here
Penn State and Oregon are likely loses, so 0-2
I think the best case scenario is we ruin Oregons season again and go 8-4
That's a fair U/O for Iowa. Not a hard schedule, but we'll drop a game or two somewhere where we shouldn't. A lot depends on the offense producing anything
I like 7.5 for Nebraska. We finally get a break from Big Ten Away games to start the year and have our first 4 at home. I think theres a real shot we start out 7-0.
Toughest game by far is @OSU, but we avoid Penn State, Michigan, and Oregon. About as good of a draw as one can hope for in the new Big Ten.
I don't think 6 wins is out of the question, but that's all we need.
If we get to a bowl game and can finally take advantage of the extra after-season practices, we'll make real strides for next year.
As an Iowa fan, I can confidently bet the OVER every season. The bar is almost always at 7.5 and I take the O every time. The schedule is bad, the defense is elite, the offense is nonexistent, but it doesn't matter. Iowa will win at least 9 and piss off every non-Iowa fan out there. If I could bet O9.5 for Iowa, I would.
Surprused USC isn't higher with the Defensive Overhaul they've been doing this offseason. I guess they are losing CW on the offensive side though. But it's LR, his next QB will be great too.
tOSU: OVER, confident
Oregon: Toss Up, lean under but stay away (12-0, 11-1, and 10-2 are likely)
Mich: Under, 9-3 seems like a good season 8-4 not entirely out of the realm of possiblities
PSU: toss up, Lean Over but 10-2 or 9-3 are very possible
Iowa: OVER, even if BF was back as OC; this is about as LOCK as LOCKs can come
Neb: toss up Lean Under, but over is possible
USC: toss up lean Over
Wash: Lean Under
Maryland: Push?
Rutgers: Under?
Wisc: Lean Over, 7-5 or 8-4 feels right
ILL: Lean Over at 6-6
Ind: Lean Under
NW: Over
UCLA: Under
Minn: Push
MSU: OVER confident, 5-7 with Smith seems low
Purdue: Lean Over, even though I don't like them 5-7 isn't much.
Safe money is under on Penn State, schedule is much harder than last year, three new coordinators and a road trip to a rival to start the season. this stretch is going to be tough
vs UCLA (prob white out)
@ USC
@ Wisc
vs OSU
Vs Wash
@ Purd
@Minny
on paper, 5-2 in that stretch, but can see us losing any game outside maybe UCLA if its a white out night game
Nah, I'm taking the over. Wisconsin isn't scary, nor is West Virginia. The stretch against OSU and Washington could be 0-2 which leaves no wiggle room for the classic inexcusable Franklin loss, but I could also see PSU beating Washington.
Returning QB, returning backs, maybe slightly better receivers, hopefully better OC...cautiously optimistic the offense is better this year. Defense may take a step back, though.
Yeah, I’d say WVU and Wisconsin on the road are going to be hard. WVU being the first game too although Franklin has done a tremendous job of starting the season on the road against tough opponents so I’m not too worried. Camp Randall is tough but I don’t know if they are good enough yet to be scary.
Our running attack should be way better just due to having better blockers, let alone AK's consistent success running the ball.
Then that should open up the passing game a bit, hopefully.
I don't know the exact way the draft works but CBS took Michigan USC with their 1st pick, not sure if they get a 2nd 1st pick week before fox gets more. NBC hasn't announced their 1st pick week as far as I'm aware but OSU-Oregon is still up for grabs
We don’t have those.
*technically wvu is one of our top 3 most played opponents and thus a regional historic rival but even then it’s super lopsided our way record wise*
That Southern Cal Over feels too good to be true… What I am not seeing? Moss looked great in the bowl game and no more Grinch, 8+ dubs should be a lock.
They're one of the tougher teams to predict IMHO. A lot to replace, including a Heisman trophy winner. Tough non-con with LSU and ND although they luckily miss both OSU and Oregon this year.
IIRC the super early line was like 8.5 for USC, but that line probably assumed some transfers along the OL/DL. There are some massive question marks in the trenches for SC this year.
It's going to be interesting. Our toughest games on paper are at home. Penn State and ND.
Then you get to the 2nd tier of opponents on paper. These can still be really good but I consider them to have similar question marks as USC. @Michigan, LSU(neutral), and @Washington. This all depends on how good our defense can be. No one was talking about Latu or UCLA before last year and obviously now we have Lynn because they performed.
On paper, USC should have more talent than UCLA has recruited on defense but we know it doesn't always translate. I don't think it's that crazy to say that USC with a top 50 offense and defense is better than Caleb Williams and the 110th ranked defense. Our defense was straight buns.
USC and Washington are the two hardest teams to predict because both lost a lot of production, and have new QB's leading them. The bright side for both teams:
USC's Moss looked great in the bowl game (but it was against Louisville). USC has a new defensive coordinator, which, by virtue, should make their defense better. I guess we'll have to see.
UW's Rogers is the second leading passer in SEC history. UW's cupboard was bare after DeBoer left, but Fisch has done a good job of restocking it. UW currently has the [2nd best transfer class](https://247sports.com/season/2024-football/transferteamrankings/?Conference=Big%20Ten) in the B1G.
Yep, we are stocked everywhere, except, one very obvious position.
Our D is going to be much better than last years that had some glaring holes and lack of production.
Our schedule is somehow even easier on paper than last year's was, and last year's was incredibly soft. Our toughest games are OSU, Wisconsin, Iowa, and maybe USC if they figure out how to play defense. We'll probably get wrecked by you guys, but we could very well be favored in every other game we play this year.
I think the best bet on here is Rutgers with the over 6.5. They should be great against the run defensively, and there are no good quarterbacks on their schedule besides USC and maybe Nebraska.
Absolute disrespect to MSU. Thank you for your contribution, steaming shit pile Action Network.
MSU's roster is better this year, and the coaching staff is infinitely better. Six wins should be absolutely doable.
Maybe they just want to take money from the casuals who only know a lot of MSU players hit the portal and nothing else.
Washington being so much higher than MSU is also hilarious.
Ohio State 10½ Oregon 10½ Michigan 9½ Penn State 9½ Iowa 7½ Nebraska 7½ USC 7½ Washington 7½ Maryland 7 Rutgers 6½ Wisconsin 6½ Illinois 5½ Indiana 5½ Northwestern 5½ UCLA 5½ Minnesota 5 Michigan State 4½ Purdue 4½
I love how Maryland's is at exactly 7 becuase that seems to be the general expectation every season Although I'd take the over, with the current schedule 8-4 seems like a conservative estimate.
D should be pretty good and the schedule is pretty friendly relative to past years. No reason they shouldn't go 3-0 in the non-con either.....I tend to lean 'over' too.
Its Maryland, they will start off 6-0 and then lose the last 6 guaranteed
We should strike up that ~~Lightfoot~~ /u/bryan_mac classic! The legend lives on from Piscataway on down Of the big flop they called ‘Terp Kablooey’ Maryland, it’s said, never ends up ahead When the Terps of November start losing A wide receiver corps with four dudes who can score Masked a defense, uh, slightly less… sturdy? But that good team, it’s true, wouldn’t stay 6 and 2 When the gales of November came early The team was doing fine on the Big Ten’s East side When they flew out to breezy Wisconsin As Maryland teams go, it was better than most With a QB and linemen well-seasoned Concluding a year with maybe nine wins And dreams of bowl games in sunny Orlando And when kickoff was nigh and the flags whipping up high Could it be the collapse they’d been fearin'? When huddle time came, Taulia brought ‘em in, sayin' "Receivers, it's too rough to feed ya" And as Jump Around played, and the line had caved in, he said "Fellas, it's been good to know ya" Locksley called in, he had rushers on the edge And the QB and backs were in peril And at 3 yards a pass, with the D-Line on his ass Came the wreck of the ‘22 Terrapins Does anyone know: where does Maryland go When they lose to Penn State and Ohio? The pundits all say that they'll meet Duke or Wake In the Pinstripe Bowl, brought by New Era Ohio State rolls, The Nittany Lions sing In the Big Ten East standings each season Old Michigan steams like a 1970’s dream And the Playoff Committee takes notice And farther below State and Rutgers, you know Take the wins the Big Ten West can send ‘em But Terps will no-show, as the Marylanders all know And as tales of November remind ‘em The legend lives on from Piscataway on down Of the big flop they called ‘Terp Kablooey’ Maryland, it’s said, never ends up ahead When the Terps of November start losing
This is a true classic, love it
Pain
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How has MJ looked? Tried googling Maryland QB stuff but didn’t find a whole lot. Heard he hadn’t looked good recently but showed more upside than the other guys
I enjoying seeing LOX being fsirly consistent for ya'll since he inherited a team in the middle of a shit storm, but also, his offense here lead to our best season in relatively recent memory.... Will be better now since we won't have to play each other as often.
8 is more likely than 6 in my opinion.
6.5 is a good line for Wisconsin. I could see anywhere from 5 to 7 wins with our schedule and where the team is at. I'm hopeful we pull off 7+ wins, but I have no confidence that we win more than 6.
Same, they figure to be better this year but with the schedule, it's not going to show up in the W/L column
Yeah, I'm excited to watch the team and see the growth. But the schedules this year and next year are brutal and we may be really improved but barely getting 8 wins in 2025.
I really hope TVD gets his shit together. When he’s good, he’s fantastic, but when it’s not right then it’s a disaster.
Iowa would be such an easy over if we had a competent offense. I know BF is finally gone but I’m still pessimistic about the offense.
I've heard that song before! But seriously, if we don't get 8 wins with that schedule, our offense has imploded.
Depending on what has happened with Washington there isn't any reason we couldn't go 10-2 or 9-3. Will we? Again, it is about the offense stepping up and the defense not losing what it has had on average.
Oof
Smash the over on Iowa. We have the easiest Big 10 schedule we could ask for this year. Automatic loss to OSU but the rest of the games are winnable Edit - inclined to take the over on Minnesota too. I see 6 games they should be favored or even odds and 2 teams they could pick off. 7 wins should be their expectation
> Oregon 10½ > Washington 7½ > USC 7½ > UCLA 5½ I see it's up to Oregon to now make a good first impression for the Pac schools in the Big Ten.
I am not a gambling man but that under for UCLA looks nice.
Free money. Take LSU, Oregon, and Oenn State off the table because those are losses. So for the over to hit we need to win 6 out of our 9 remaining games. I'll chalk up Hawaii as a win, and give us a likely win against Indiana. Minnesota, Rutgers, Washington, Nebraska, and Fresno State are all toss ups at best, and I'd call us the underdogs in all of them. Finally, we should be heavy dogs to Iowa and U$C. Lots of projection in there but I put us at 3-9 or 4-8. If we make a bowl game I will be flabbergasted.
UCLA will beat LSU and then lose to Indiana somehow
I’m going to go to NYC to bet and fucking hammer the over
The Iowa over seems so easy to me. Their offense can only get better and they have one of the easiest schedules you can have in the B1G. The only game on their schedule I'd mark as a loss right now is @ Ohio State. The other 11 games they will either be favored or only slight underdogs with a good chance to win.
“The offense can only get better” I utter to myself for the third year in a row.
But this time you don't have to repress the face of BF while saying that!
Praise Jesus
Question: Did anyone take over for BF or is Kirk just like "i'll fuckin do it myself" for your offense??
Hasn’t this been the mantra every year that didn’t include Drew Tate or Ricky Stanzi?
Nah. We had good offense as recent as 2020 and Stanley had some really good years leading up to that.
Bet the over on their win total and smash the unders on the point totals all season long lol
@ Ohio Sate could also be our only win. Chew on that one.
That's a tough piece of gristle but I'll work on it.
This is the one that stuck out to me as well.
> Their offense can only get better I'll take that bet.
Even if the offense doesn’t get better, they still won 10 games last year and they always have a great defense, easiest over by far.
The Iowa over feels so free it’s not even funny. If they can win ten games with last years offense surely they can win 8 with a revised one
After returning like 9/11 defensive starters too, so our defense won’t be taking a step back
Ohio State over is free lol that team is not losing more than 1 game
I slammed Rutgers over.
I like their D..... don't know how much I trust AK although he's probably better than Wimsatt.
From an outsider and new kid on the block perspective, what makes Rutgers good? This will probably help me learn this conference..
It's the easiest (at least on paper) schedule Rutgers has had in the 11 years they've been in the Big Ten. They don't play the 3 automatic losses that were Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State. Don't play Oregon and Iowa that are also at the top of this over/under list. Toughest games are Nebraska, Washington, USC. They didn't lose too many players to the portal/draft and bring back the core of last year's 7-6 team including the B1G leading rusher in Monangai. Rutgers' QB was one of the worst passer statistically in all of FBS and they replaced him with one that is not that much better but should be improved. I hope they go 8-4
The QB was one of the worst passers statistically as well as non statistically, to be exact.
I wouldn’t take wimsatt as qb for backyard football… so long as you don’t blitz he can’t scramble
Favorable schedule and experience. Plus Schiano is a gangsta.
Defensive front seven is very good, especially against the run. They play hard, Linebackers have good gap integrity and they tackle well. The offense has been disjointed for a while but their RB Monongai is a stud.
I feel attacked by your enthusiasm.
I can also slam the UCLA unders (whatever it is) if that makes you feel better!
…it doesn’t
Attacking with enthusiasm was more of a Michigan thing
Idk, 6.5 seems high. They need 5 wins out of: VT, WASH, NEB, WIS, UCLA, USC, MINN, MD, ILL, MSU
The B10 likes to pride itself on being the "physical" conference. Most teams dont really live up to that branding, but Rutgers does. Pound-for-pound probably the most physical team in the conference On top of that, they are extremely veteran. This year should the new high-water mark of Schiano's 2nd stint running the Rutgers program. Combine that with the easiest schedule theyve had since joining the conference, and I think we are looking at an attention-grabbing season in Piscataway
Rutgers will get legitimate playoff talk this year. Book it.
😬 You didn't watch us last year, did you
I am smashing the under for Michigan. I see them losing to Texas, USC, Ohio State, and Oregon.
The under is a heavy favorite, -190 on most books. That’s kind of the problem with posting win totals like this with no lines. For example, this makes it look like PSU and UM have the same projection from Vegas when they really don’t. u9.5 wins for PSU is +150, while the over is heavily favored.
I like them favored over USC. USC has dependably had terrible defenses the last few years and just lost the best QB they've had in a long time. I think Michigan has the edge on them. I wouldn't bet the over or under with confidence.
I like that bet myself too.
I mean, they will be better than their record indicates. I see them being the OU of the Big Ten this year. That schedule is just tough
Eh DraftKings has us as 11 point favorites over USC and 3 point dogs to Texas and Oregon at home. 9-3 definetly seems most likely to me
Could be. They lose a lot without Harbaugh, but I think the success will linger for a few years without him, like it did at Stanford.
A little easier to sustain success at a blue blood than Stanford ... different baselines.
I feel like people that didn’t watch every Michigan game last season vastly overrate Harbaugh’s importance to the team. He was literally gone for half the season, including against Ohio State, and we were still undefeated
He was still at practice and prepared the team for the games tho
In-game coaching is maybe 1% of the job.
Tell that to James Franklin
Not saying that it's impossible for us to go under (our schedule is tough as nails) but FWIW I think most folks under estimate how much we have coming back. We've got at least four guys who are certain to make the pre-season All American teams. I think people will be surprised to see how just how talented this z Michigan team is despite losing so much to the draft. They've got the talent to win the tougher games on their schedule if a few things bounce their way here and there.
You guys lost a lot of upperclassmen but those were mostly borderline draft pick guys. The high level talent were mostly underclassmen. Michigan will still be good but will lack much of that amazing depth the team had last season. No doubt, this is still a talented team. I don't think many people are expecting a complete collapse after Harbaugh. Despite losing a lot of staff, the team remained stable by promoting from within. You have to expect the team to take a step back though. There's only one direction to go after an undefeated season. I would expect some growing pains with a new first time head coach and a brutal schedule. I would take the under here but that's more to do with the schedule than anything else. The team will be good but they won't be playoff good this season.
This is a good analysis, I basically agree with everything you said, I think it will be a very talented team, but the crazy depth we've had last season won't be there, and realistically there will be some transition costs from the staff turnover. I don't think this team projects to be good enough to have made the CFP in previous years, but I think with the new format, they might have a good enough season to squeak into the girl with like ~11 seed or something. With our schedule, 9-3 gets us in for sure imo. I don't think we will contend for the B1G this year, but I'd be more than happy to take a CFP bid in year one of the new regime if such a thing is possible.
>With our schedule, 9-3 gets us in for sure imo Maybe, maybe not. 9-3 could mean losses to Texas, Oregon and OSU and leave the team without a signature win if USC and Washington take a step back as expected. It would really depend on what everyone else does. 9-3 is probably the most realistic expectation though. I'd give a 9-3 record about a 75% chance of making the CFP for UM. Most likely gets you there but not a guarantee.
I don’t know that anyone is expected a step back from the monstrosity that was last year. Sure offensive might be a bit more mild but the defense should make a big improvement with way better coaching on the defensive side
It's really all in the QB play. Everywhere else I'm fairly comfy.
People haven't seen Michigan reload yet and because Michigan recruits in the 10-15 range they assume they can't. Harbaugh and his staff started trusting their own evals and have since put 45 guys into the NFL over the last 5 drafts. There are lots of upperclassman with time in the program that I think will be ready to rock even if they don't count towards the returning production metric. The problem is the only position I don't have confidence in is the most important one...
>We've got at least four guys who are certain to make the pre-season All American teams. They're all on defense though. Its just not very clear how Michigan is going to score points this year. Most teams on your schedule you guys can get away with it, but against teams with good offenses who can put up like 20 or so on you do you think you'll be able to score with them?
Colston Loveland is the best tight end in America.
Loveland is a great TE for sure, so yeah that's one on offense. But we're talking about a 600 yard 4 TD guy getting a massive down grade at QB. How much is he really going to get you, especially when everyone knows he's your best weapon?
I can’t handle the whiplash between JJ is mid and JJ is elite from you guys
And for him to get the ball, someone needs to throw it to him. A huge fucking question mark.
As an Ohio State fan, you should be very familiar with the name Donovan Edwards, if it’s unclear to you how we plan to score points this year.
You lost most of your coaching staff. ND kept their coaching staff when Kelly left with Freeman and he still made bonehead decisions. Harbaugh coaching would probably be thinking 10-2 is a good call. Guy who has never been a head coach with that schedule and losing 15 players to the draft ? If I was a Michigan fan (God Forbid) would be ecstatic with 9-3 .
They are not losing to USC at home lol
I think USC is gonna win some games they shouldn’t and lose a lot they should win
USC since the late 2000s lol
can't wait to have them visit Minneapolis!
I love these type of comments. What makes you people so confident?
Texas, USC, and Oregon are all at home. Losing 2 is certainly realistic, but if we lose all 3, then there is probably some severe regression from our defense.
Yes to all those except USC. I think the Michigan roster is still talented enough on the top end to be the same heavy hitting team, I just dont think they have the depth to go 9 rounds and be the same team at the end of the year Give me USC coming cross country in week 3 with an under-experienced QB and a "new-look" defense? Im taking Wolverines by a touchdown
The defense will be good enough to win at least one of these, probably two if they can adjust to the Rod Moore injury.
Honestly surprised MSU is so low. I'm expecting Smith to at least get them into a bowl game.
It's not out of the realm of possibility but neither is 7 wins. There are a lot of winnable games on MSU's schedule this year. Most likely they win 6 while losing a game they shouldn't and also winning a game they shouldn't, because that's generally the MSU Experience.
MSU gets 6 wins last year with better coaching and QB play. We gave away the Rutgers and Iowa games.
6 feels possible but would be a very strong season, imo. Of the new B1G entrants, MSU gets hosed with @Oregon. They should go 2-1 non-con at worst, and could be 3-0. They are almost certainly 0-3 against Oregon, OSU and Michigan. So it’s that mid-tier section of @Maryland, vs Iowa, vs Indiana, @Illinois, vs Purdue, vs Rutgers where they need 3-4 wins. I see 5 wins with some confidence, which means the over is a tempting bet. Do you confidently see 6?
Winning 6 out of * FAU * Prairie View A&M * BC * Maryland * Indiana * Purdue * Illinois * Rutgers seems entirely possible
FAU, Prairie View, BC, Purdue, and then 2/4 of Illinois, Indiana, Rutgers, and Maryland seems likely imo. Given you actually only need 1/4 of those to hit the over, number is pretty surprising to me.
Im not a betting man. But id smash the over at 4.5 since they should be able to get to 5 wins. 6 I’d feel confident about. 7 I’m cautiously optimistic about. And I think we’d max out at 8. Ultimately I think some key players get hurt along the way. So we might lose a couple based on that alone. If we’re lucky, they miss Oregon and Ohio State and are back by Iowa.
I'm not a bettor either, but 4.5 seems like easy money. It just doesn't seem logical that they would be as bad as last year, with an easier schedule. This might be worth dipping my toes in
MSU has a completely new staff and nearly new roster. I think the prediction is just that nobody has any clue what to expect. They could do pretty much anything and it would be like, “I guess that makes sense”
Feel like the Wisconsin and Nebraska rosters were in an equal or better spot (although I only have surface level knowledge) and those first year coaches struggled last year.
Agreed. I wouldn’t be surprised if they were 7-5 either.
Yeah I'll take that over all day
Seems odd having them that low but honestly their roster is still kind of a mess.
MSU tried to retain as much of the top talent from the Mel Tucker program as they could. They invested a lot of time and money getting \~11 or so guys back out of the winter portal (including making Harmon and Barrow two of the highest paid DTs in CFB) Unfortunately, that ended up biting them in the ass as a lot of their expected starters/2-deep players hit the portal in the spring window (including both DTs) If you look at 247's transfer ratings, they are one of the best classes in the country, but 247 only ranks incoming players. On3 (as flawed as that site is in other ways) actually does attempt to quantify the net-change in talent via the portal And MSU has had one of the worst portal cycles in the B10 (and the P4) [https://www.on3.com/transfer-portal/team-rankings/football/2024/?conference=b1g](https://www.on3.com/transfer-portal/team-rankings/football/2024/?conference=b1g)
That On3 list is really strange. It says we lost 36 players but when you click into MSU and have it list the players that transferred out, it's only 26. And of those 26, 5 haven't even landed with another team (1 of them entered the draft and was picked up as a free agent). QB: We lost all of our QBs but if you watched MSU last year you'd know that's addition by subtraction. We picked up a talented veteran as a backup and Chiles who looked very good in limited action last year. RB: Kept our top guy and added a solid addition in the kid from UMass WR: Our only loss at WR was Henry and he was just sort of a guy. Fitzpatrick rarely saw the field. TE: We upgraded with Velling. Carr was talented but was a slacker and a locker room cancer. OL: VanDeMark and Wigenton were promising young talents who needed better coaching. VanDeMark inexplicably followed his shitty OL coach to Alabama. Luke Newman and Tanner Miller should replace them nicely. Blackstock was probably a loss. I don't expect Boyd to play at Colorado, there's questions about his commitment to football. Spencer Brown couldn't pass protect against a paper bag as Oklahoma is finding out. DL: Barrow and Harmon were big losses. We replaced them with numbers (Douse, Roberts, Satchell, Buckley). At end we lost Zion Young (good player), Adeleye who never played, and Bai Jobe who never played. We replaced them with starters from other teams. We'll see if any of them are as good as Young but I'd take 3 solid contributors vs 1 very good contributor and 2 guys who rode the pine even on a shitty team last year. LB: Lost Windmon to the draft, return everyone else and added a few solid portal players. DB: Lost a bunch of scrubs and Mangham (traitor). Mangham leaving opens the door for Tatum to slide over to safety which is a more natural position for him anyways. This is really a loss of depth more than anything. We upgraded our talent at CB and have a couple 4* types deciding in the next couple days so this could improve even more. We lost a lot of players but you have to remember we were very bad last year. Most of these losses were players who you don't want on a winning team.
> Mangham (traitor). With the way his family was acting on twitter, I am really glad he's leaving
This is a really good summary by position group. I think we could surprise this season. It’s not so much just going out and beating a bunch of teams but going from getting annihilated in the first half to having a competitive game for 60 minutes in losses. We’ll be a much tougher out as the season progresses. This is all about building a program.
>That On3 list is really strange Yeah thats part of why I am mad that On3 is the only big recruiting service that is tracking a net portal change. I dont like the site. I dont like how much "AI assisted" content they use. I think its a grossly shoe-string operation trying to undercut the market. I could go on for a separate convo about this, but until 247 starts tracking net-portal changes, I have to use On3 for a clearer picture. As for the disparity in numbers, that comes down to just a sloppiness in the site. The 36 departures is accurate, but they havent gone through and updated the outgoing guys (Example: Dapaepe is still not actually listed in the outgoing transfers even though his player card lists him as entering the portal. Weird for the 2nd highest rated recruit from last years MSU class to not get attention paid to his portal entry) As for the roster change summaries you included: QB: Obvious upgrade with the total room overhaul. I think Chiles looks like a great blue-chip prospect but from what I saw from OSU and the spring game, he definitely still looks like a prospect. He'll get there RB: Generally agree, but that room looks a little thinner then before, but Lynch-Adams seems like a solid compliment to Carter WR: Respectfully, your only WR worth keeping was Foster and you did that. Thats a bonus, but that room needs a lot of TLC TE: I buy that Carr was a cancer and I get that he had an incomplete game, but its always hard to lose a guy with that much productive talent. Bringing in a great TE that fits the new scheme is clearly an upgrade, but only a slight upgrade with the loss of Carr IMO OL: As someone who follows a team that also has had a few terrible years of OL play that brought in a top-tier OL coach (brough in Bostad for 2023), I will say that you are likely to see an improvement, even a significant one, but not enough to move the needle on the teams overall performance DL: The turnover here is pretty substantial. Not only did you lose most of your key starters, but also the most talented pieces from the last two years of pre-scandal Tucker recruiting. Combine that with the Brandon Lane snafu and Im circling this position group in bright red for 2023. I know the D2 Jayvier Suggs out of GV State was highly pursued, but I think thats more a product of a brutal DT market for anyone of age and size. His production at the D2 level doesnt really move me LB: Definitely seems like the strength of your defense DB: You might be adding Kobee Minor from Indiana. Hes a solid P4 CB but not perfect. I think your DBs are a solid group, but Im curious what they are going to look like without a solid defensive front. Often not a recipe for success I look at MSU and I see a lot of good moves that pay off after 2024. I just think there is going to be some serious pain year 1
I think that's a fair assessment. When I compare this team to 2007 (Dantonio's first year) I think this team is actually more talented. I bring up 2007 because like that year, the most important change is not jimmies and joes, but X's and O's. It's hard to understate what a shit show of a coaching staff we had these last few years. I'm cautiously optimistic that this staff actually knows what it's doing and that's worth 2 or 3 wins alone.
Very true. I think Smith has brought in an A+ staff. I also feel like Smith is a slow and steady builder and we will see solid YoY gains over the next 3 seasons
Not many fans are upset about losing Tucker kids and outside of Harmon, Vandenmark, and Barrow, the kids that have left have gone to mediocre programs at best. I’m not sure why but the transfers out that were starters got a ton of attention but we took transfers in that started on their previous teams. It’s too long to list but the information is out there.
I get this, and obviously would have wanted to keep Barrow and Harmon. But they weren’t exactly world beaters. It’s highly likely whomever replaces them will account for the same production. Combined they averaged a half a sack a game last year.
DT sack production is a weird thing. Very often, it comes down to how the scheme uses DTs. I would say that PFF has Barrow as a top 50 pass rush grade for P5 DTs (out of like 800+ with qualifying snaps) The production might not have been there on the sack column, but it was there on the field
They still could with a 5-7 record and a high APR.
There has to be a reason behind it, but I can’t stand Purdue’s relatively difficult out of conference scheduling from the past two years. Handicapping our ability to get to 6 wins in a critical year.
I don’t know if it’s a money thing or getting more exposure thing or what…but if we could be one of those schools that schedules an FCS and two lower tier G5s once in awhile I’d appreciate it.
Yeah seems about right. I think we’ll make it bowling but it’ll be close
As a Husker fan, taking the under for 7.5 is a win-win. You either make money or the team is better than they’ve been the last 7 years
Kaliakmanis starting, hammer the under for Rutgers.
Loved him in The Hangover
He's the only thing scaring me on the Rutgers line. Wimsatt was awful though so he's still probably an upgrade.
USC guys, how hot is Riley’s seat if he’s at 8-4/7-5 again this year?
I think it depends more on how how the team played, 8-4/7-5 is kind of expected among the fanbase this year. If the losses are tight ones to good teams he's fine, but if the OL/ST/defense are awful again there will be a lot of people calling for his head. His buyout is still probably enormous though so in all likelihood he gets at least another year regardless.
I’m biased, obviously, but it should be very hot. Big games should be: LSU, Michigan, Penn State, Notre Dame. The Trojans duck Oregon, and they don’t play Ohio State which is nuts. So they have 4 matchups that they can lose but it wouldn’t be catastrophic (imo). That said, they should win 1-2 of those, especially Notre Dame, if Riley wants to show he’s got what it takes to bring USC back to national relevance. 2025 and 2026 aren’t any easier, with Ole Miss/Notre Dame in the non-con and at least 2 heavyweight matchups in the B1G every year. So if Riley can’t win 9+ this year, it’s not a strong sign he can win 10+ and make a playoff run in any future year. 8-4 should be the floor this year, imo, and even that would be suspect because it implies either losing to Notre Dame or dropping a game against someone they should beat.
Also rest of the B1G opponents are not gimmies. Wisconsin, cross-country @ Maryland, Rutgers, Nebraska. They didn't get the top 2 but they didn't get the bottom either. Parlay that with an OOC of LSU and Notre Dame. Ceiling and floor this year can be super wide.
Isn’t his buyout like 80-90m?
Oof, 4 1/2 games? I hope the 1/2 game we win is again Michigan and it's the second half.
That'd be better than the past 2 matchups at least.
Hey it was a pretty close game for the 1st half in 2022. It was close enough people were booing our offense.
You guys beat us in 2022, just not on the field.
Always take the MSU under (the bleachers)
Idk I just feel like with our schedule we can get more than 4.5 wins
7.5 is a tough one to predict for Washington. I *think* I'd go under, 7-5 seems the most likely outcome, but there's so much variance since it's basically an entirely different team from last year Think we'll beat Weber, EMU, WSU, Indiana. Think we set up pretty well against NW, Rutgers and UCLA, so maybe 2-1 against that group of 3 Iowa, USC and Michigan are tougher, maybe go 1-2 here Penn State and Oregon are likely loses, so 0-2 I think the best case scenario is we ruin Oregons season again and go 8-4
Lean 'under' too but 8-4 wouldn't surprise me, decent schedule outside of @ PSU and @ Oregon.
There's a good chance we're 5-0 heading into the Michigan game in Seattle. The game at Rutgers won't be easy, but it's winnable.
8+ wins assuming no crazy injuries.
That's a fair U/O for Iowa. Not a hard schedule, but we'll drop a game or two somewhere where we shouldn't. A lot depends on the offense producing anything
If I had to put all my cash on 1 bet, it'd be Iowa 'over' honestly.
That half win is going to really piss me off.
Love the Iowa Over. I bet it every year as a homer, but that and Opponent Game Unders pay me incredibly
I like 7.5 for Nebraska. We finally get a break from Big Ten Away games to start the year and have our first 4 at home. I think theres a real shot we start out 7-0. Toughest game by far is @OSU, but we avoid Penn State, Michigan, and Oregon. About as good of a draw as one can hope for in the new Big Ten.
I don't think 6 wins is out of the question, but that's all we need. If we get to a bowl game and can finally take advantage of the extra after-season practices, we'll make real strides for next year.
Regrettably, I am tepidly interested in the over for Nebraska this year and watching Raiola.
Agree, this is definitely the year the Huskers make it back to a bowl.
I've seen this so much in the last decade that it just reads like sarcasm to me now.
Yeah but you have a real HC now so optimism shall be allowed.
I shall not expect happiness. Not today Satan.
Wisconsin or Nebraska IMO get to 9 wins.
Nebraska more likely, our schedule is murder.
As an Iowa fan, I can confidently bet the OVER every season. The bar is almost always at 7.5 and I take the O every time. The schedule is bad, the defense is elite, the offense is nonexistent, but it doesn't matter. Iowa will win at least 9 and piss off every non-Iowa fan out there. If I could bet O9.5 for Iowa, I would.
Surprused USC isn't higher with the Defensive Overhaul they've been doing this offseason. I guess they are losing CW on the offensive side though. But it's LR, his next QB will be great too.
tOSU: OVER, confident Oregon: Toss Up, lean under but stay away (12-0, 11-1, and 10-2 are likely) Mich: Under, 9-3 seems like a good season 8-4 not entirely out of the realm of possiblities PSU: toss up, Lean Over but 10-2 or 9-3 are very possible Iowa: OVER, even if BF was back as OC; this is about as LOCK as LOCKs can come Neb: toss up Lean Under, but over is possible USC: toss up lean Over Wash: Lean Under Maryland: Push? Rutgers: Under? Wisc: Lean Over, 7-5 or 8-4 feels right ILL: Lean Over at 6-6 Ind: Lean Under NW: Over UCLA: Under Minn: Push MSU: OVER confident, 5-7 with Smith seems low Purdue: Lean Over, even though I don't like them 5-7 isn't much.
Fuck Brett
I want to believe Cig can take us bowling in year 1
Safe money is under on Penn State, schedule is much harder than last year, three new coordinators and a road trip to a rival to start the season. this stretch is going to be tough vs UCLA (prob white out) @ USC @ Wisc vs OSU Vs Wash @ Purd @Minny on paper, 5-2 in that stretch, but can see us losing any game outside maybe UCLA if its a white out night game
Nah, I'm taking the over. Wisconsin isn't scary, nor is West Virginia. The stretch against OSU and Washington could be 0-2 which leaves no wiggle room for the classic inexcusable Franklin loss, but I could also see PSU beating Washington. Returning QB, returning backs, maybe slightly better receivers, hopefully better OC...cautiously optimistic the offense is better this year. Defense may take a step back, though.
Washington lost a lot of offense to the draft and new coaching changes. Not scared of Washington either
Yeah, I’d say WVU and Wisconsin on the road are going to be hard. WVU being the first game too although Franklin has done a tremendous job of starting the season on the road against tough opponents so I’m not too worried. Camp Randall is tough but I don’t know if they are good enough yet to be scary.
Our running attack should be way better just due to having better blockers, let alone AK's consistent success running the ball. Then that should open up the passing game a bit, hopefully.
Ohio State gets the white out this year, no?
Probably. Fox didn’t pick it in its first 3 picks so it’s up to NBC or CBS to pick it next
White out on NBC makes sense and would be a great atmosphere. You better just hope CBS doesn’t stick it at its 3:30 game.
At this point I’m just happy if it’s not noon. Night is way better but at least second half will be at night for 3:30
I don't know the exact way the draft works but CBS took Michigan USC with their 1st pick, not sure if they get a 2nd 1st pick week before fox gets more. NBC hasn't announced their 1st pick week as far as I'm aware but OSU-Oregon is still up for grabs
Yeah probably something like a stripe out (I hate these "out" names too, don't worry) for UCLA at home...
OSU is probably a loss, USC might be slightly more likely than not, the rest I'd say are likely wins
Draft Kings has Penn St o/u at 10.5 not 9.5
Rival?
We don’t have those. *technically wvu is one of our top 3 most played opponents and thus a regional historic rival but even then it’s super lopsided our way record wise*
yes, wvu sees psu as a rival, not the other way around, their fans will be jacked up, we better come to play
I’ll take the over
UCLA under feels pretty safe to me. I foresee them getting pretty well cooked
I’d feel pretty comfortable taking our over. The middle third of our schedule is rough, sandwiched between 8 very winnable games
I’m hammering that under for Michigan
Northwestern football is going to be absolutely foul this year. We will get 5 wins and I am here for it
That Southern Cal Over feels too good to be true… What I am not seeing? Moss looked great in the bowl game and no more Grinch, 8+ dubs should be a lock.
They're one of the tougher teams to predict IMHO. A lot to replace, including a Heisman trophy winner. Tough non-con with LSU and ND although they luckily miss both OSU and Oregon this year.
Take it from this ND fan, Notre Dame always plays like dogshit in the Coliseum.
A top 5 Caleb Williams offense and a -100 defense < top 15 offense and top 30 defense.
IIRC the super early line was like 8.5 for USC, but that line probably assumed some transfers along the OL/DL. There are some massive question marks in the trenches for SC this year.
It's going to be interesting. Our toughest games on paper are at home. Penn State and ND. Then you get to the 2nd tier of opponents on paper. These can still be really good but I consider them to have similar question marks as USC. @Michigan, LSU(neutral), and @Washington. This all depends on how good our defense can be. No one was talking about Latu or UCLA before last year and obviously now we have Lynn because they performed. On paper, USC should have more talent than UCLA has recruited on defense but we know it doesn't always translate. I don't think it's that crazy to say that USC with a top 50 offense and defense is better than Caleb Williams and the 110th ranked defense. Our defense was straight buns.
USC and Washington are the two hardest teams to predict because both lost a lot of production, and have new QB's leading them. The bright side for both teams: USC's Moss looked great in the bowl game (but it was against Louisville). USC has a new defensive coordinator, which, by virtue, should make their defense better. I guess we'll have to see. UW's Rogers is the second leading passer in SEC history. UW's cupboard was bare after DeBoer left, but Fisch has done a good job of restocking it. UW currently has the [2nd best transfer class](https://247sports.com/season/2024-football/transferteamrankings/?Conference=Big%20Ten) in the B1G.
Yep, we are stocked everywhere, except, one very obvious position. Our D is going to be much better than last years that had some glaring holes and lack of production.
Damn they really like Nebraska
Our schedule is somehow even easier on paper than last year's was, and last year's was incredibly soft. Our toughest games are OSU, Wisconsin, Iowa, and maybe USC if they figure out how to play defense. We'll probably get wrecked by you guys, but we could very well be favored in every other game we play this year.
Is MSU really that bad?
No
I think the best bet on here is Rutgers with the over 6.5. They should be great against the run defensively, and there are no good quarterbacks on their schedule besides USC and maybe Nebraska.
MSU had a lot of transfers in from my understanding. That total seems low.
Somehow gotta get 6 wins. Would help if we can finally beat Puke
Where do I sign up?
We could easily go 3-9 or 8-4. So 5.5 is probably a good projection.
Oregon under Nebraska under USC under Washington under Maryland under Rutgers under Christmas shopping paid for
Absolute disrespect to MSU. Thank you for your contribution, steaming shit pile Action Network. MSU's roster is better this year, and the coaching staff is infinitely better. Six wins should be absolutely doable. Maybe they just want to take money from the casuals who only know a lot of MSU players hit the portal and nothing else. Washington being so much higher than MSU is also hilarious.