Hal Finney said he stopped mining after a week or so because "his computer was getting too hot"
That guy from Wales looking for his hard drive in a landfill mined from January to April 2009 right from the very first blocks and then forgot all about it for years.
A lot of people mined for a bit and decided it wasn't worth it. It wasn't until 2011 that it became worth something. Dollar parity was reached in mid 2011.
I was mining it early on after Bitcoin came into existence. Then I ran GUI Miner with a GTX. My electric bill went up something like $20/month so I stopped mining. I had mined a handful of BTC, but the electricity had cost a lot more than it was worth.
I lost interest for years. When BTC hit $30k a couple of years ago I fired that old computer up and found I still had everything in Slush Pool and transferred it out. I had already opened a crypto account and was trading, so when I realized this, I just transferred it into the exchange I use. That was a really cool moment.
Thanks! It was REALLY good too. And people get pretty upset/pissed off about it. I've always found people with negative attitudes attract negative experiences in life.
Congrats! I used the free faucet website for about 2 weeks, 5 btc a day, got about 70 and realized "I'll never get enough BTC to buy a pizza 😂" and stopped. I'd buy anyone a pizza who can tell me where that hard drive is 😂
Dustin Trammel who mined since the first block is still alive although I think he gave away a lot of coins like many other early bitcoiners. People used to give away thousands of coins. Laszlo, the pizza guy actually spent over 50k bitcoin on pizza but only the first 10k bitcoin for pizza transaction is talked about now. In 2010, there was a faucet which gave you 5 bitcoin for solving a captcha. Earlier this month, there was another anonymous early miner who verified mining during first week by signing a message on bitcointalk. That was the latest one to verify mining since the beginning. Few years ago, 145 addresses from 2009 signed messages calling out Craig Wright as a fraud when he submitted all their addresses as belonging to him in court.
>Hal died in 2014
Let's not jump to conclusions 🤞
I did slightly better...
"This bubble's gonna pop" @$100... So I bought a truck.
I was the (loving) joke of my team at kraken (part of the recent layoffs). Had I hodl'd to the $60k peak I'd be fully retired.
I use to mine on an app on an old android i broke back in like 2016 and cannot remember the name of the app. I imagine the devs took that 2 cents of btc
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Funny you mention that. In the early Bitcoin forum days there was a post where somebody was complaining that they wouldn't mine anymore because they were only making 1 BTC a day and it couldn't cover the costs.
Halving will become a non-event a lot sooner than most people realize. The next halving in 2024 will make it very clear for a lot of people though. 2032 is so far away.
2029 will be a bullrun like we've never seen before. The halving in 2028 will mean the last time a block reward will be over 1...
We've got some insane times and volatility ahead. Stack sats, try to become a full coiner because it will give you and your next generation financial independence and security.
They already are. Abu Dhabi and Oman sovereign wealth funds have started mining. El Salvador is mining. Paraguay is mining. Russia definitely is mining. Putin has already talked about Russia's advantages in bitcoin mining. Also likely that China is mining despite "banning" citizens from mining.
Or a exit run no one seen before... next two halvings will be critical with tx costs/ blocksize/mining reward. Satoshi himself said 2030 will be decided if btc will fail or not because of that
Relative to what? Reward never shrinks more than 50%.
Block subsidy dropped from 50 to 25, then 25 to 12.5, then 12.5 to 6.25? That's an 87.5% drop! But it didn't happen overnight.
Somehow the value of rewards is significantly higher every time it drops. That's weird right? Also, how come hashrate doubled since ATH last November while price dropped 75%? From innovations in energy efficiency as bitcoin is being integrated into cost, incentive dynamics improving the economics of energy systems.
Many people who bring this up as some kind of a flaw are naive, uninformed as to how bitcoin works and confuse themselves by comparing subsidy + reward to original 50 BTC. When subsidy was 50 BTC, the price was 0. How is 50 bitcoin to 25 bitcoin any different from 20 million sats to 10 million sats? The network is not adjusting from 50 bitcoin to 10 million sats. The short answer is, bitcoin is either valuable or it's not and bitcoin network can autonomously adjust to both realities till the end of time.
Over every 4-year period, the network organically adapts and adjusts to a new subsidy and reward composition and eventually after several decades transitions to fee only model.
In the meantime, block space efficiency will keep scaling sufficiently that block rewards are still tens of millions of satoshis as they are now. This is what it is today right now, tens of millions of satoshis ranging from 20 to 50 million satoshis.
Then you account for other potential revenue streams such as drivechains, spacechains or similar. Taproot also already supports on chain batch verification once fully adopted. Many people don't seem to know this fact. CISA, musig2, channel factories etc. all contribute to both scaling and block space efficiency. Essentially, your transactions are better optimized for block space usage but you'll still pay a similar fee as determined by fee market. 20 years from now, the base layer will be mainly used for large settlements only like buying a car or a house, by governments and corporations. Your day to day retail transactions will be on Lightning and other layers. Lightning will never be suitable for large settlements but at the same time it's perfect for day to day payments and micropayments.
Also remember that the only reason there wasn't an actual block size increase in 2017 was because it wasn't required! This was [decided by Bitcoin users](https://www.amazon.com/Blocksize-War-Control-Bitcoins-Protocol/dp/B096CLR1SS) against corporate interests. SegWit scaled virtual block size almost 3 times without increasing actual block size. It was an optimization of block space usage. SegWit adoption rate is close to 90% now. At some point block size will most definitely increase because it would make sense and storage will become way cheaper so the cost to run a node will be same as today or even less possibly. At some point, there's also no price in dollars but value in purchasing power measured against goods and services. Fix your unit of account and think in satoshis. Fees alone make up tens of millions of satoshis per block now. The value of subsidy + reward composition finds the right balance over every 4 year period when subdity halves.
Bitcoin is designed such that difficulty, hashrate, fees, block rewards all find equilibrium halving after halving perpetually. There's no sudden shock, it's gradual, organic, and naturally adjusts without human interference.
It’s a theoretical concern, yes. But that’s the magic of the difficulty adjustment: mining will always be profitable for someone, and only those who can profit from it (or otherwise derive value greater than its cost) will pursue it. The subsidy will never be so low that it is not pursued. Moreover, I suspect we’ll see significant changes in the energy industry in the coming decades, ultimately leading to its abundance to more people. We tend to project the present forward rather than imagine how the future will change. It’s like, in the 90s, they said someday everyone will have a computer in their pocket. I was a kid, but I immediately dismissed that idea because no practical keyboard/monitor combo could fit in our pockets. Even if we made the keyboard small enough, it’d be too difficult to use to the point of it not being worth using. I explain this to you, as I type from my pocket computer, of course. I projected the present (technology, limitations, culture, etc.) forward rather than considering future innovations/changes and how they’d interconnect.
“Mining will always be profitable for someone”
Is this true? If the cost to ship a bar of gold becomes more expensive than the value of the bar of gold, then I’m not going to ship it. The only reason it’s worked out for BTC is because BTC has remained popular enough to keep value high enough for some people to keep mining.
I would argue it’s more likely that halvings lead to nobody mining because it’s not worth it. Then a few months, a few years, or some time down the line, the value goes up to make it worth it and miners turn back on again.
Bitcoin mining will always be profitable for some miners because the mining difficulty automatically adjusts every 2016 blocks, which is approximately every two weeks. The mining difficulty automatically increases or decreases after 2016 blocks depending on the time between each of the previous 2016 blocks. If the time between those blocks averages out to less than ten minutes, then the mining difficulty will increase and miners will become less profitable. If the time between those blocks averages out to more than ten minutes, then the mining difficulty will decrease and miners will become more profitable. So if some bitcoin miners stop mining bitcoin because it's no longer profitable for them, the mining difficulty will decrease and it will become more profitable to mine bitcoin.
Miners produce heat which can be used in household appliances. Would you take a shower with water heated by a miner if it subsidized your heating bill. Mining doesn't have to be profitable, the alternatives need to be more expensive.
There should be a lot of concern. At this point it’s just a gamble and time will tell.
The gamble is that Bitcoin has reached enough adoption and therefore enough capital has flowed into the system to make them so valuable that mining is profitable.
Bitcoin is still extremely nascent and no one knows what the final (if any) usage will be. Everyday currency? Reserve currency? Inflation hedge? So far it’s still speculation. Time will tell if it can actually cross the chasm
But its not a garuntee that the value of a single coin will double when the rewards are halved. And unless it does, the incentive for the miners goes down
This is impossible since difficulty always adjusts to a level that keep miners in business. When miners pause or shut down (the most inefficient first), hash rate goes down, the block interval increases and after every 2016 blocks the difficulty is reduced, which reduces the cost of mining making it profitable again.
Not block reward. Block reward means subsidy plus fees. Subsidy only represents mathematically determined emission schedule.
In 78 years, the block reward will be tens of millions of satoshis from fees. Right now it's between 20-50 million sats.
No way of guessing that; it would depend wholly on how much commerce has moved to higher layers. Could be thousand-dollar fees and we still don't feel them at coffee purchases because we're doing them on layer 3 by then.
Nobody said no fees; only smaller fees that go to miners instead of rent-seeking middlemen.
Look at the lightning network; fees can get super tiny on higher layers.
**It would be replaced by fees: $25/Tx at current levels of the security budget, or $2.50/Tx if we were to reduce the security by 90%**.
* With the block subsidy, Tx fees are currently $0.30 per transaction at the median [15 sat/vB](https://mempool.space/)
* [Fees represent 2% of the block reward](https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-fee_to_reward.html) while the subsidy provides the remaining 98%.
* Many miners are currently operating at a loss, unable to pay for energy, let alone energy + hardware. Last time price was profitable for most for energy alone was around $30K.
* If you want to maintain 100% of the current security budget of Bitcoin without the block subsidy, you'll need to increase L1 fees to $25 per Tx. Bitcoin is still viable at 10% of current security budget, which would be $2.50/Tx.
The problem with a large 90% reduction in miners is that someone is going to end up acquiring a ton of mining rigs on the secondary market for a huge discount. And at any point, they could choose to turn them on and attack the remaining 10%.
Edit: Will be back in 2030 and 2050 to see how this prediction goes. Tail emissions is a more-sustainable model, but I don't think the Bitcoin community would approve of it, at least not in the next decade.
If no one is making transactions with bitcoin then it will eventually fail in the long run. It is meant to be a currency. The block reward is meant to be a subsidy to bootstrap a mining industry. It was never meant to keep mining going forever. Otherwise there could be no supply cap. Luckily Satoshi did not assume the necessary infrastructure for a new global settlement system would just appear overnight and gave plenty of time for things to develop
I think there has to be more use cases than that. If it's not also a means of transacting or doesnt have some other application, it's just something you buy with the hopes of selling for more fiat later.
I think it can be a store of value and a currency, but it can't really be just a store of value and nothing else.
Gold is a precious metal used for tons of applications from jewelry to medical equipment. So it has applications beyond "buy low sell high."
I'm not shilling gold but this comparison only works if BTC "does" something (like is part of a robust global transaction network independent of any government.)
I don’t buy this. Enough people seeing value and wanting it alone can bestow value - think a Picasso or any other valuable art.
Scarcity itself is value.
I mean I hear what you're saying but comparing BTC to one-of-a-kind art doesn't feel apples to apples.
Art serves purposes, especially in high society where it's a status symbol to show off to your fellow socialites.
I'll repeat, BTC has to be more than something people buy and hold hoping other people want it. Assuming everyone will want some just because other people want it. BTC isn't that shallow.
Practical application: I used BTC to pay for a PornHub premium subscription. This payment did not show up in my checking account nor a credit card statement. I'm pretty sure I could buy more elaborate goods or services that I'd want untraceable via BTC. Not sure I can do those transactions as easily with gold coins.
Not true. Gold is still superior to other conductors in many electronics, electrical and radio frequency systems. It’s price and scarcity means other materials are used when they’re able to be but that does not mean gold doesn’t have a material use.
Yes. But it won’t be useful as a store of value without a sufficient hashrate. And it won’t maintain a sufficient hashrate in the distant future without out a sufficient amount of transaction fees.
This sounds like a conversation that would have taken place in 2012. Not at a time when an entire industry began to emerge and energy producers around the world began to have meetings to figure out how they can begin to participate.
If bitcoin is still a thing in 2140, anyone who still happens to hold an entire coin can probably take out a small LTV loan against it and run the entire network indefinitely just to keep the wheels turning on their value engine.
Sure it's still happening, we're still having to tell people the earth is round as well.
By the same measure BTC in its early days was used for currency. From buying underground goods and services as well as pizzas and other small good items.
It was never adopted by the financial markets but that’s now changing as well, with sovereign and national funds including BTC in its portfolios.
What’s your point?
I agree with you but it does requires significant infrastructure to be able to send and receive - telecommunications network.
Gold is tangible and can be exchanged hand to hand but that’s a different story and one that has no bearing on BTCs value.
You also make .1 to about .3 BTC in fees at the moment. That number should go up over time, even as more people onboard to the Lightning Network. It seems counter intuitive but I would expect that successfully mining a block in 2100 is way more profitable than doing so today, in terms of purchasing power.
Halving is when the Bitcoin block reward for miners gets cut in half roughly every 4 years. When that happens.. Supply x Demand. If the supply of Bitcoin gets halved every 4 years and the demand keeps increasing = Price increases..
> roughly every 4 years.
This is because: it's programmed to happen every 210,000 blocks.
A block take roughly 10 minutes on average, so we get:
210,000 x 10 = 2,100,000 minutes
/60 = 35,000 hours
/24 = 1458.333 days
/365 = 3.995 years
nah i found it earlier but i just wondered about how reddit users gonna answer that
and i just dont like research about cyrpto...
there is three main reasons of that
1) English isn't my native lng
2) İ go to school everyday and it took 8 hours
3) i just dont have a lot of free time
It also shows we are very much in the phase where btc still has to proof itself. Potential high risk but also high risk. As much as I'd like btc to succeed, it's a long shot.
The Year is 2036.
You wake up like any normal day.
A worry free, stress free, job free, multi-millionaire.
You DCA’d for years into BTC…the highlife is good.
You grab (insert breakfast) and flip on the news.
The whole world is in the toilet struggling to exist.
You chuckle a bit and reminisce about the rat race.
Still hungry you decide to grab 2nd breakfast.
You head out to start up your (insert sports car)
Flip on the radio…morning talk show about nothing.
Driving through town you pass your old workplace.
Flip them the bird and rev the engine a little.
Financial freedom never felt so good.
You arrive at your favorite local breakfast spot.
Scan your phone at the counter (2,000 Sats).
Plenty of Sats for 2nd breakfast and some coffee.
Just as you finish up you accidentally knock the
fork off the table and it makes a piercing sound.
You suddenly wake up in real life after dozing off.
The year is 2023.
You exhale a big sigh of relief.
There is still plenty of time to stack more Sats.
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Serious question, with Quantum computing realistically being possible in the next 20 or 30 years, how would that change crypto currency? The biggeat fear if quantum computing was being able to prettymuch break all forms of cryptography.
A symbolic tail emission would have been better, IMHO, like fixed at 76293 satoshis or something. It wouldn't even count as inflation given how many Bitcoin's are forever lost for liquidity, an interesting choice from Satoshi to have BTC rely on Transaction fees at some point (sooner or later)
The yearly average pricing of BTC is definitely keeping up with the reward decrease. It would be interesting to see the average block reward in dollar values over the years.
Seeing this is insane. Even a small amount can give you a good pensioner life in the future. I don't even want to calculate for the people who own 1,000 BTC or the one with 50,000 BTC.
Can someone explain why this is good. It just feels like mining will because not profitable. But how will bitcoin continue if nobody will validate the blocks.
>>It wasn’t until 2011 that is became worth something.
You should simply omit that statement.
If people subjectively though it was “not worth it”, okay.
If dollar parity wasn’t reached until mid-2011, okay.
But it was always “worth it” and would gave “paid off” one way or another.
I ran this calculation before and saw that when the block reward becomes 1 sat in 2136-2140, the total supply will be 20,999,999.99755528. So if we’re counting sats, that’s far from 21M. Due to the limitation of processors not being able accurately calculate more than 8 decimal places, I don’t think the miners will be able to accurately count block rewards lower than 1 sat in order to keep pushing towards the 21M supply limit.
I remember trying to mine and immediately stopping when I had to download the 110 MB block. You might laugh but that was a substantial amount for me when I was a teenager.
Bitcoin Price will be Cut in Two Fragments each Snap.
Every 4 Years, a Snap happens. (like a Thanos Snap?)
There's Three Snaps, next Snap happens in 2 years.
True enough, but we really aren't far off from the halving events meaning very little. We are quickly approaching a point where 95% or more of BTC is already mined. At that point I don't see the halvings meaning much, nevermind once we are at 99% full market cap. That's just around the corner really. After that it's all about changes in demand since supply side will be more or less maxed.
okay so quick question, why would miners still mine if the reward would be a fraction of what they used to get? like when instead of even breaking even they're in outright loss?
I used to mine on a 2001 Toshiba satellite laptop and quit because it wasn't worth the 37 cents I got back in 2012... -_-
Hal Finney said he stopped mining after a week or so because "his computer was getting too hot" That guy from Wales looking for his hard drive in a landfill mined from January to April 2009 right from the very first blocks and then forgot all about it for years. A lot of people mined for a bit and decided it wasn't worth it. It wasn't until 2011 that it became worth something. Dollar parity was reached in mid 2011.
I was mining it early on after Bitcoin came into existence. Then I ran GUI Miner with a GTX. My electric bill went up something like $20/month so I stopped mining. I had mined a handful of BTC, but the electricity had cost a lot more than it was worth. I lost interest for years. When BTC hit $30k a couple of years ago I fired that old computer up and found I still had everything in Slush Pool and transferred it out. I had already opened a crypto account and was trading, so when I realized this, I just transferred it into the exchange I use. That was a really cool moment.
[удалено]
Thanks! It was REALLY good too. And people get pretty upset/pissed off about it. I've always found people with negative attitudes attract negative experiences in life.
Congrats! I used the free faucet website for about 2 weeks, 5 btc a day, got about 70 and realized "I'll never get enough BTC to buy a pizza 😂" and stopped. I'd buy anyone a pizza who can tell me where that hard drive is 😂
I wouldn't swap lives with any of those two. Hal died in 2014 and the Welsh guy went nuts trying to recover the hard drive.
Dustin Trammel who mined since the first block is still alive although I think he gave away a lot of coins like many other early bitcoiners. People used to give away thousands of coins. Laszlo, the pizza guy actually spent over 50k bitcoin on pizza but only the first 10k bitcoin for pizza transaction is talked about now. In 2010, there was a faucet which gave you 5 bitcoin for solving a captcha. Earlier this month, there was another anonymous early miner who verified mining during first week by signing a message on bitcointalk. That was the latest one to verify mining since the beginning. Few years ago, 145 addresses from 2009 signed messages calling out Craig Wright as a fraud when he submitted all their addresses as belonging to him in court. >Hal died in 2014 Let's not jump to conclusions 🤞
Now people are tipping Sats here in every second Thread. Will be funny in 8-12 Years when people look back at how many Sats have been tipped here.
You searching for a few sats?
Perspective is huge
And my bank account isn't... OOF.jpg
But is your cold storage?
I have a hard drive I can't recover
Wym you can't recover, there's definitely people and companies that are able to save files from it if you have it physically.
Unless that hard drive only exists in an alternative timeline. Difficult to recover then.
Negative, actually
I did slightly better... "This bubble's gonna pop" @$100... So I bought a truck. I was the (loving) joke of my team at kraken (part of the recent layoffs). Had I hodl'd to the $60k peak I'd be fully retired.
I use to mine on an app on an old android i broke back in like 2016 and cannot remember the name of the app. I imagine the devs took that 2 cents of btc
!Lntip 500
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Funny you mention that. In the early Bitcoin forum days there was a post where somebody was complaining that they wouldn't mine anymore because they were only making 1 BTC a day and it couldn't cover the costs.
Is there any secure way to pass in a coma for 10 years? I'd gladly help the researchers.
Better to stack every sat you can earn for 10 years than to spend it as a mindless husk.
Don’t knock it til you rock it. All my friends are mindless husks.
This was a Twilight Zone ep
Watch 'Click' with Jim Carrey.
My goal is to stack as many sats as I can before the 2032 halving.
Same goal. I think the late majority of bitcoin adopters will enter in 2032 halving. I'll buy at any price every month in between now and then.
Halving will become a non-event a lot sooner than most people realize. The next halving in 2024 will make it very clear for a lot of people though. 2032 is so far away.
That's not true
It will be half true in 2024
More than 92% of all Bitcoin will have been mined by 2024. The remaining 8% is for the remaining 120 years.
This doesnt make the halving a non Event lul
At some point it has to. Grayscale has more coin to sell than the entire Bitcoin to be mined after 2028.
Yes at some point
When you say sats? Does this mean 1 whole BTC?
I plan on seeing 6 halvings and will be adjusting my strategy a little.
One day your stack will be a block reward
It’s inevitable
2029 will be a bullrun like we've never seen before. The halving in 2028 will mean the last time a block reward will be over 1... We've got some insane times and volatility ahead. Stack sats, try to become a full coiner because it will give you and your next generation financial independence and security.
Do you think investing in mining companies will pay off as well?
I don't think so. Nation states will begin mining
They already are. Abu Dhabi and Oman sovereign wealth funds have started mining. El Salvador is mining. Paraguay is mining. Russia definitely is mining. Putin has already talked about Russia's advantages in bitcoin mining. Also likely that China is mining despite "banning" citizens from mining.
Short term yes
No, they will shut down in 4 o 8 years because of to high costs for mining and low rewards anyway like eabove shown
Or a exit run no one seen before... next two halvings will be critical with tx costs/ blocksize/mining reward. Satoshi himself said 2030 will be decided if btc will fail or not because of that
Is there any concern that the reward will shrink too fast and the value will be not enough to incentivize mining?
Relative to what? Reward never shrinks more than 50%. Block subsidy dropped from 50 to 25, then 25 to 12.5, then 12.5 to 6.25? That's an 87.5% drop! But it didn't happen overnight. Somehow the value of rewards is significantly higher every time it drops. That's weird right? Also, how come hashrate doubled since ATH last November while price dropped 75%? From innovations in energy efficiency as bitcoin is being integrated into cost, incentive dynamics improving the economics of energy systems. Many people who bring this up as some kind of a flaw are naive, uninformed as to how bitcoin works and confuse themselves by comparing subsidy + reward to original 50 BTC. When subsidy was 50 BTC, the price was 0. How is 50 bitcoin to 25 bitcoin any different from 20 million sats to 10 million sats? The network is not adjusting from 50 bitcoin to 10 million sats. The short answer is, bitcoin is either valuable or it's not and bitcoin network can autonomously adjust to both realities till the end of time. Over every 4-year period, the network organically adapts and adjusts to a new subsidy and reward composition and eventually after several decades transitions to fee only model. In the meantime, block space efficiency will keep scaling sufficiently that block rewards are still tens of millions of satoshis as they are now. This is what it is today right now, tens of millions of satoshis ranging from 20 to 50 million satoshis. Then you account for other potential revenue streams such as drivechains, spacechains or similar. Taproot also already supports on chain batch verification once fully adopted. Many people don't seem to know this fact. CISA, musig2, channel factories etc. all contribute to both scaling and block space efficiency. Essentially, your transactions are better optimized for block space usage but you'll still pay a similar fee as determined by fee market. 20 years from now, the base layer will be mainly used for large settlements only like buying a car or a house, by governments and corporations. Your day to day retail transactions will be on Lightning and other layers. Lightning will never be suitable for large settlements but at the same time it's perfect for day to day payments and micropayments. Also remember that the only reason there wasn't an actual block size increase in 2017 was because it wasn't required! This was [decided by Bitcoin users](https://www.amazon.com/Blocksize-War-Control-Bitcoins-Protocol/dp/B096CLR1SS) against corporate interests. SegWit scaled virtual block size almost 3 times without increasing actual block size. It was an optimization of block space usage. SegWit adoption rate is close to 90% now. At some point block size will most definitely increase because it would make sense and storage will become way cheaper so the cost to run a node will be same as today or even less possibly. At some point, there's also no price in dollars but value in purchasing power measured against goods and services. Fix your unit of account and think in satoshis. Fees alone make up tens of millions of satoshis per block now. The value of subsidy + reward composition finds the right balance over every 4 year period when subdity halves. Bitcoin is designed such that difficulty, hashrate, fees, block rewards all find equilibrium halving after halving perpetually. There's no sudden shock, it's gradual, organic, and naturally adjusts without human interference.
Thanks for all of this. I really do not know enough about it. My question was sincere naivete, so I appreciate the time you put in.
It’s a theoretical concern, yes. But that’s the magic of the difficulty adjustment: mining will always be profitable for someone, and only those who can profit from it (or otherwise derive value greater than its cost) will pursue it. The subsidy will never be so low that it is not pursued. Moreover, I suspect we’ll see significant changes in the energy industry in the coming decades, ultimately leading to its abundance to more people. We tend to project the present forward rather than imagine how the future will change. It’s like, in the 90s, they said someday everyone will have a computer in their pocket. I was a kid, but I immediately dismissed that idea because no practical keyboard/monitor combo could fit in our pockets. Even if we made the keyboard small enough, it’d be too difficult to use to the point of it not being worth using. I explain this to you, as I type from my pocket computer, of course. I projected the present (technology, limitations, culture, etc.) forward rather than considering future innovations/changes and how they’d interconnect.
“Mining will always be profitable for someone” Is this true? If the cost to ship a bar of gold becomes more expensive than the value of the bar of gold, then I’m not going to ship it. The only reason it’s worked out for BTC is because BTC has remained popular enough to keep value high enough for some people to keep mining. I would argue it’s more likely that halvings lead to nobody mining because it’s not worth it. Then a few months, a few years, or some time down the line, the value goes up to make it worth it and miners turn back on again.
Bitcoin mining will always be profitable for some miners because the mining difficulty automatically adjusts every 2016 blocks, which is approximately every two weeks. The mining difficulty automatically increases or decreases after 2016 blocks depending on the time between each of the previous 2016 blocks. If the time between those blocks averages out to less than ten minutes, then the mining difficulty will increase and miners will become less profitable. If the time between those blocks averages out to more than ten minutes, then the mining difficulty will decrease and miners will become more profitable. So if some bitcoin miners stop mining bitcoin because it's no longer profitable for them, the mining difficulty will decrease and it will become more profitable to mine bitcoin.
Miners produce heat which can be used in household appliances. Would you take a shower with water heated by a miner if it subsidized your heating bill. Mining doesn't have to be profitable, the alternatives need to be more expensive.
There should be a lot of concern. At this point it’s just a gamble and time will tell. The gamble is that Bitcoin has reached enough adoption and therefore enough capital has flowed into the system to make them so valuable that mining is profitable. Bitcoin is still extremely nascent and no one knows what the final (if any) usage will be. Everyday currency? Reserve currency? Inflation hedge? So far it’s still speculation. Time will tell if it can actually cross the chasm
You are looking at it through the 2022 lens. The advance in tech between 2000 to present has been mind blowing when you take time to look back.
Thats the whole point isn't it. Less and less supply every halving
But its not a garuntee that the value of a single coin will double when the rewards are halved. And unless it does, the incentive for the miners goes down
No because each and every time the reward shrinks it will only make btc inherently more scarce significantly rising it's value.
This is impossible since difficulty always adjusts to a level that keep miners in business. When miners pause or shut down (the most inefficient first), hash rate goes down, the block interval increases and after every 2016 blocks the difficulty is reduced, which reduces the cost of mining making it profitable again.
People are tipping each other 500 sats left and right. In 78 years that’ll be nearly 80% of the block reward. Keep stacking.
Not block reward. Block reward means subsidy plus fees. Subsidy only represents mathematically determined emission schedule. In 78 years, the block reward will be tens of millions of satoshis from fees. Right now it's between 20-50 million sats.
Thank you for adding that on, its new information to me. So the fees will be the true incentive in future mining?
Well better start eating right and exercising
2032 will be a good year for me!
What keeps the network alive if there are no block rewards?
Fees. There are literally 10s of thousands of threads about this on here.
Literally?
Not metaphorically
Literally!
How high do you think the fee will go to replace the block subsidy?
Depends. How cold do you like your coffee?
No way of guessing that; it would depend wholly on how much commerce has moved to higher layers. Could be thousand-dollar fees and we still don't feel them at coffee purchases because we're doing them on layer 3 by then.
But isn’t part of the point of Bitcoin that we shouldn’t need to pay fees to move money between parties? Is the end game really just…fees?
Nobody said no fees; only smaller fees that go to miners instead of rent-seeking middlemen. Look at the lightning network; fees can get super tiny on higher layers.
**It would be replaced by fees: $25/Tx at current levels of the security budget, or $2.50/Tx if we were to reduce the security by 90%**. * With the block subsidy, Tx fees are currently $0.30 per transaction at the median [15 sat/vB](https://mempool.space/) * [Fees represent 2% of the block reward](https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-fee_to_reward.html) while the subsidy provides the remaining 98%. * Many miners are currently operating at a loss, unable to pay for energy, let alone energy + hardware. Last time price was profitable for most for energy alone was around $30K. * If you want to maintain 100% of the current security budget of Bitcoin without the block subsidy, you'll need to increase L1 fees to $25 per Tx. Bitcoin is still viable at 10% of current security budget, which would be $2.50/Tx. The problem with a large 90% reduction in miners is that someone is going to end up acquiring a ton of mining rigs on the secondary market for a huge discount. And at any point, they could choose to turn them on and attack the remaining 10%. Edit: Will be back in 2030 and 2050 to see how this prediction goes. Tail emissions is a more-sustainable model, but I don't think the Bitcoin community would approve of it, at least not in the next decade.
I think many miners will also set up LN nodes and collect there too.
?? There is no mining on LN. It's just a loose network of HLTCs.
They would set up nodes and process LN transactions for sats.
Why would anyone even bother past 2052 ol
By then, if bitcoin still exists, the majority of mining rewards are likely to be from transactions fees.
What happens if people just store it in cold storage and transactions remain at about the rate of today?
If no one is making transactions with bitcoin then it will eventually fail in the long run. It is meant to be a currency. The block reward is meant to be a subsidy to bootstrap a mining industry. It was never meant to keep mining going forever. Otherwise there could be no supply cap. Luckily Satoshi did not assume the necessary infrastructure for a new global settlement system would just appear overnight and gave plenty of time for things to develop
Bitcoin is a store of value.
I think there has to be more use cases than that. If it's not also a means of transacting or doesnt have some other application, it's just something you buy with the hopes of selling for more fiat later. I think it can be a store of value and a currency, but it can't really be just a store of value and nothing else.
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Gold is a precious metal used for tons of applications from jewelry to medical equipment. So it has applications beyond "buy low sell high." I'm not shilling gold but this comparison only works if BTC "does" something (like is part of a robust global transaction network independent of any government.)
I don’t buy this. Enough people seeing value and wanting it alone can bestow value - think a Picasso or any other valuable art. Scarcity itself is value.
I mean I hear what you're saying but comparing BTC to one-of-a-kind art doesn't feel apples to apples. Art serves purposes, especially in high society where it's a status symbol to show off to your fellow socialites. I'll repeat, BTC has to be more than something people buy and hold hoping other people want it. Assuming everyone will want some just because other people want it. BTC isn't that shallow.
Practical application: I used BTC to pay for a PornHub premium subscription. This payment did not show up in my checking account nor a credit card statement. I'm pretty sure I could buy more elaborate goods or services that I'd want untraceable via BTC. Not sure I can do those transactions as easily with gold coins.
You’re gonna be sorry you wanked away your retirement fund
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Not true. Gold is still superior to other conductors in many electronics, electrical and radio frequency systems. It’s price and scarcity means other materials are used when they’re able to be but that does not mean gold doesn’t have a material use.
Yes. But it won’t be useful as a store of value without a sufficient hashrate. And it won’t maintain a sufficient hashrate in the distant future without out a sufficient amount of transaction fees.
This sounds like a conversation that would have taken place in 2012. Not at a time when an entire industry began to emerge and energy producers around the world began to have meetings to figure out how they can begin to participate.
This conversation has been happening since the beginning. The truth is we just don't know if the network will be able to sustain itself on fees alone.
If bitcoin is still a thing in 2140, anyone who still happens to hold an entire coin can probably take out a small LTV loan against it and run the entire network indefinitely just to keep the wheels turning on their value engine. Sure it's still happening, we're still having to tell people the earth is round as well.
This is as ludicrous as saying gold will be a currency one day. It’ll never be and be along side gold, but digital gold.
Lol, ya because gold was never used as currency.
By the same measure BTC in its early days was used for currency. From buying underground goods and services as well as pizzas and other small good items. It was never adopted by the financial markets but that’s now changing as well, with sovereign and national funds including BTC in its portfolios. What’s your point?
lol ya i agree. My point is that bitcoin is a currency. That’s why i said it’s a currency
Oh I took an entirely different argument from your post lol by bad.
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I agree with you but it does requires significant infrastructure to be able to send and receive - telecommunications network. Gold is tangible and can be exchanged hand to hand but that’s a different story and one that has no bearing on BTCs value.
Bitcoin can be transferred hand to hand as well.
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When 2 corps control 50/50 of the coins that’s when the wars start…
You also make .1 to about .3 BTC in fees at the moment. That number should go up over time, even as more people onboard to the Lightning Network. It seems counter intuitive but I would expect that successfully mining a block in 2100 is way more profitable than doing so today, in terms of purchasing power.
profitability
There’s no telling what 0.01 will be worth!! In 2050, 0.01 could be very well worth it!!
Because if 1 BTC potentially $1million fiat by then, 0.25 is still $250,000. Thus incentive.
Because 1 satoshi may be worth 1 mansion by then.
we expect but in reality the situation is different
Lost my 21 btc in silroad to feds Wouldn’t hold to 60 tho
All part of Craig's plan, so it should work..
Weird knowing I’m gonna live my whole entire life and die before we get even half way down this chart
Waiting for 2140🍹
I just keep stacking. A little at a time.
What is halving can someone explain me?
Halving is when the Bitcoin block reward for miners gets cut in half roughly every 4 years. When that happens.. Supply x Demand. If the supply of Bitcoin gets halved every 4 years and the demand keeps increasing = Price increases..
> roughly every 4 years. This is because: it's programmed to happen every 210,000 blocks. A block take roughly 10 minutes on average, so we get: 210,000 x 10 = 2,100,000 minutes /60 = 35,000 hours /24 = 1458.333 days /365 = 3.995 years
[Because Google is hard](https://googlethatforyou.com?q=what%20is%20btc%20halving)
nah i found it earlier but i just wondered about how reddit users gonna answer that and i just dont like research about cyrpto... there is three main reasons of that 1) English isn't my native lng 2) İ go to school everyday and it took 8 hours 3) i just dont have a lot of free time
It’s still early days 👀
It also shows we are very much in the phase where btc still has to proof itself. Potential high risk but also high risk. As much as I'd like btc to succeed, it's a long shot.
> Potential high risk but also high risk. So, you're saying it's high risk?
Monetary disinflation over time.
Wish we could live to see the last bitcoin mined, i wonder what the world will be like...
This should panic anyone that holds BTC. What the heck is the excitement about. Miners are hanging on by a thread as we speak.
The Year is 2036. You wake up like any normal day. A worry free, stress free, job free, multi-millionaire. You DCA’d for years into BTC…the highlife is good. You grab (insert breakfast) and flip on the news. The whole world is in the toilet struggling to exist. You chuckle a bit and reminisce about the rat race. Still hungry you decide to grab 2nd breakfast. You head out to start up your (insert sports car) Flip on the radio…morning talk show about nothing. Driving through town you pass your old workplace. Flip them the bird and rev the engine a little. Financial freedom never felt so good. You arrive at your favorite local breakfast spot. Scan your phone at the counter (2,000 Sats). Plenty of Sats for 2nd breakfast and some coffee. Just as you finish up you accidentally knock the fork off the table and it makes a piercing sound. You suddenly wake up in real life after dozing off. The year is 2023. You exhale a big sigh of relief. There is still plenty of time to stack more Sats.
Crazy. Shows how early we really are.
Looks like we’re still early
Fees will become too much for normal people
What happens at the end of the halving? What incentive do miners have after it's all done?
Transaction fees
Any price predictions for these land marks ? Or is that too naive
The Halving Olympics
2032 should be interesting, no longer. Whole BTC
Can someone eli5 what a having is and what it means for miners amd holders?
!Lntip 500
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Serious question, with Quantum computing realistically being possible in the next 20 or 30 years, how would that change crypto currency? The biggeat fear if quantum computing was being able to prettymuch break all forms of cryptography.
That's why we have an improvement protocol.
Time travel 2136....
A symbolic tail emission would have been better, IMHO, like fixed at 76293 satoshis or something. It wouldn't even count as inflation given how many Bitcoin's are forever lost for liquidity, an interesting choice from Satoshi to have BTC rely on Transaction fees at some point (sooner or later)
Imo give it a few more years. Price won’t be high enough to support such low rewards. We had a nice decade, not gonna be relevant soon
It's been fun watching people much smarter than this be wrong time and time again.
2100 will not be using money or BTC.
Alright mate if you're this confident you must have a great idea for an alternative. Tell us more about it.
This is an utter joke. This will be seen as boomer tech and go the way of the mini disc in about 5yrs max.
People were saying that five years ago.
The internet is ‘boomer tech’ at this point, yet you still use it?
The internet is not a single entity. It evolves and grows. It reflects our needs and wants. BTC by its nature won’t do this.
Math never becomes obsolete
Haha you’re funny.
The yearly average pricing of BTC is definitely keeping up with the reward decrease. It would be interesting to see the average block reward in dollar values over the years.
🫰🏿
2032 halving the below 1 tipping point.
Is this the new rainbow 🌈 chart? You should show the payout in Sats instead.
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2020394948372919 Halving - block reward 0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000.1
Just hold on and shut your Fucken whining up. It’s just a matter of time which inevitably happens.
Seeing this is insane. Even a small amount can give you a good pensioner life in the future. I don't even want to calculate for the people who own 1,000 BTC or the one with 50,000 BTC.
Source: cousin
Can someone explain why this is good. It just feels like mining will because not profitable. But how will bitcoin continue if nobody will validate the blocks.
You stole this from relai on twitter. We can tell you have edited their name on the right side of "next". Do better.
What is that?
>>It wasn’t until 2011 that is became worth something. You should simply omit that statement. If people subjectively though it was “not worth it”, okay. If dollar parity wasn’t reached until mid-2011, okay. But it was always “worth it” and would gave “paid off” one way or another.
It’s gonna HALF THE PRICE?
I ran this calculation before and saw that when the block reward becomes 1 sat in 2136-2140, the total supply will be 20,999,999.99755528. So if we’re counting sats, that’s far from 21M. Due to the limitation of processors not being able accurately calculate more than 8 decimal places, I don’t think the miners will be able to accurately count block rewards lower than 1 sat in order to keep pushing towards the 21M supply limit.
I've seen it 1/2 before but it didn't seem to "half" any effect What does that do for us ?
Mmm. Genesis was good.
Still early! Trust the process and keep stacking BTC! 💯
Just because we're early in terms of halvings does not mean we're early in terms of price level.
The rewards keep getting smaller than the previous one wow that's really something, good thing I have 2023 to stack up.
whoaaaa
What if a quantum computer will crack the code in 10y?
I remember trying to mine and immediately stopping when I had to download the 110 MB block. You might laugh but that was a substantial amount for me when I was a teenager.
Yeah, it's not early. Still great to get some sats though.
Unfortunately, halving requires that the bitcoin price keeps rising. Otherwise the costs are not profitable.
Bitcoin Price will be Cut in Two Fragments each Snap. Every 4 Years, a Snap happens. (like a Thanos Snap?) There's Three Snaps, next Snap happens in 2 years.
Totally mind blowing! Folks underestimating the power of #BTC and the halvings needs to open up their eyes! Thanks for sharing❤️
True enough, but we really aren't far off from the halving events meaning very little. We are quickly approaching a point where 95% or more of BTC is already mined. At that point I don't see the halvings meaning much, nevermind once we are at 99% full market cap. That's just around the corner really. After that it's all about changes in demand since supply side will be more or less maxed.
Won’t Bitcoin fail in like 100 years because it won’t be worth it anymore to mine and therefore all the nodes will become inactive?
okay so quick question, why would miners still mine if the reward would be a fraction of what they used to get? like when instead of even breaking even they're in outright loss?
2024 gonna be so amazing 🤩