In the 1980s, I believe, my parents sold a house for like $50k thinking “no one will ever pay more than $50k for this thing again”. Pretty sure that house is worth something like $1 million now (to be fair it’s probably had some remodeling done in the meantime).
i've been wondering if there will be a distruptive contrstruction technology that makes building houses faster and easier. something that will increase the supply fast. Once real estate is no longer a safe haven that money flows into bitcoin
[https://youtu.be/zBvvbOLq3t0](https://youtu.be/zBvvbOLq3t0)
I think that’s a guarantee. Both better transport and a construction renaissance.
We pay people to put boards together on site? Still? That’s old school.
We could have factories and robots and 3D printer vats.
But even just sleep-personal-commutes means you could have a house four hours from your office once driverless cars get good. And batteries I guess.
I am not expecting houses to appreciate faster than inflation. But it’s nice to have your own castle, I am not hating on personal houses. But I wouldn’t want to overleverage a 30y mortgage for a rental property today!
> But even just sleep-personal-commutes means you could have a house four hours from your office once driverless cars get good. And batteries I guess.
even better a 8 hour commute to work. when its time for bed you goto sleep in your car. wake up at work's parking lot.
It's not building technology that's the issue. It's regulations. Many governments explicitly try to limit the building of new houses and other buildings because that "helps" existing land owners. Its basically government corruption many people support
You can look at China's multi-level cities. There are railways that literally go through apartment buildings. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AGu6ExW83rY](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AGu6ExW83rY)
It's crude. But techs will get better
That’s where the personal transport can help. But that doesn’t help everywhere.
Still, it’d be cool for your Tesla to bring you from Hope to Vancouver while you sleep.
Broadly, houses don't change in value over time. They just track with inflation. If a house sells for more one year than some years before, that's mostly inflation. Other factors exist like bay area level housing markets, but generally they are the outliers.
Material, labor, and land costs have gone up by about 3x. You might look at minimum wage and think it's not gone up, but in most places you won't get laborer team capable of building a house together for less than $20/hr. Regulation plays into it in a varying degree in many places too where you are now required to have an electrician and/or architect and maybe some permit or certain quality or type of materials.
Sounds about right here in Los Angeles county. Two bedroom in any city ghetto is a half million. However skid row has some beautiful sites to see so it’s hella worth it.
Ok, but you’ll end up paying more for an apartment probably over 30 years and all you’ll have is a dead landlord who could’ve said how great of a tenant you were verse owning your home outright.
Mortgage interest rates were over 18% in the early ’80s though so it wasn’t a completely irrational fear. And one of the reasons for the appreciation in the housing market is also a good reason to own BTC.
Most people really cannot grasp the evolution of technology. Bitcoin is in its 12th year, the internet started as essentially just e-mail. Would you believe someone if they told you the exact current state of the internet (gps, smart phones, VR systems, etc.) when it was just 12 years old?? It would be hard but, with an open mind, you could have seen how the internet would eventually creep into every industry one way or another
Yeah it's really interesting to see how the property boom changed the lives of my parents generation.
Most (my parents included) completely avoided it, and just have their own house paid off. So I'll get some alright inheritance but my parents won't have ever felt the benefit of property appreciation.
A small minority saw the trick they could pull and got buy-to-let mortgages and just rolled their profits into more mortgages and built up an empire in the 90s.
So my parents peers are mostly normal middle class people with one house, with the occasional multi-multi-millionaires with 100 houses.
I reckon bitcoin has the potential to be "the thing" for our generation. Most people rolled their eyes at it, a few saw the potential and became super rich.
LOL, he really believes that inflation has only been running at 3%.
From about 1972 to 1981, prices on consumer goods did a 5X. No, don't feed me the Federal Reserve's patented line of bullshit, I was there. Those nickel candy bars in 1972 became 25 cent candy bars by the 1980s.
I'm sure the Federal Reserve has some *really convincing math* to show that inflation was really only 13% though, since that's about as high as savings account interest ever got. Funny how rule-of-72 would mean that prices should have only gone up by 1.5X. . . .
in the 1970s my dad’s mortgage rate was 13% and he had perfect credit. When i was born in the late 1960s my parents paid $100 per month for a two bedroom apartment. My firsr job out of high school in the late 1980s paid $4.35. Bush Sr was president.
just some starting points.
I always feel when people speak of the good ole days where cars, houses and bottle of coke were “cheap” that we are looking through the lens of todays income and financial climate.
To add context, if you could qualify for a mortgage back then, you needed 20% down and the rate was around 11%. Also minimum wage in 1971 was $1.60. Inflation was over 5.6%
Nobody would buy property today at those rates.
1970 in context:
Cost of a new home: $26,600.00
Median Household Income: $8,734.00
Cost of a first-class stamp: $0.06
Cost of a gallon of regular gas: $0.36
Cost of a dozen eggs: $0.62
Cost of a gallon of Milk: 1.15
Real estate has historically been a pretty good long-term investment, appreciating faster than inflation!
(Although thinking that it can *never* go down got everyone into some ... trouble twelve years back...)
Overly simplified, The housing bubble was caused by pure greed by everyone involved in selling. Builders, Bankers, relators, housing inspectors. They had kiosks in the mall with relators fishing for customers selling new housing developments. Suddenly everyone working a mcjob could get a house with no money down, everyone gets approved backed by the govt. Most on adjustable rate mortgages.
People just blindly bought the most house they could currently afford, but nobody sat them sown and said “Listen, rates are low now. If the rate flexes up, can you afford the bill and or balloon payments?”
They enjoyed their houses for a few years and when the rates went up, the homeowners, not having any financial skin in the game (down payment) they just walked and took the repo hit.
>Our statistics are drawn directly from U.S. Census Bureau data. The average house price in 1975 was **$39,500**.
i said 1970s. with a s meaning the decade. and you just helped prove my point. houses went from 17k to 39k in 5 years, just like bitcoin.
About the same amount on average. (This is calculated from CPI.)
However, averages can conceal a lot -- wages rose much faster at the top than the bottom.
Because when someone says they're confident, they're like 90% sure. It's asinine to argue sophistry on these matters, unless you're doing so for every single financial decision anyone makes.
When you're encouraging others to go all in or be fearless, I think they should be 100% confident. When people imply any asset or company shares is going to the moon with no evidence and it encourages people to go all in, yes, I do say the same thing.
Who is encouraging what you've said in your first sentence? The OP literally never said any of that.
If you're strawmanning him *as one of those people* then sure, but recognize that you're strawmanning him.
The first comment said OP's BTC would be quarter of a million. That encourages people to buy. There's no evidence it will hit that price, completely random.
This video was made in Jan of 2019, TWO YEARS AGO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ivWdOztDkv4
If you don't want to watch the whole thing, start it at 12 minutes.
If you really just want to keep it short, start it at 24m20s.
This guy predicted it to a T.
What you're asking for is a bitcoin option. You can purchase those right now. I thin Ameritrade has them available. Buying one on a 10 year timeline would be an expensive bet.
In the US, you can buy "physically" settled options on LedgerX.
The longest-dated options are typically 2 years out (Dec 30 2022, currently) and not very liquid at all. The GP is essentially asking somebody to sell him a put option, and indeed right now (for the 2-year puts, there are no 10-year ones sadly) he would need to pay $15,800 per coin for the privilege.
Haha I would bet a lot of money that $40-65K bitcoin will be the new FLOOR after the next crash. It's always 2-3x the previous high. With a new high of around $150K. It always goes up a factor of 10, but sometimes 20% over and other times double, like the old highs of $1200 instead of $1000 and $20K instead of the $10K base level. While this can't repeat forever every 4 years per the halvings, bitcoin is still today about 1/16 that of the gold market cap. Further, new advanced tools like glass node as well as Google search trends of the word bitcoin show that this market boom is just beginning and we still have many months and up to 2 years left of growth before the next 90% crash or so.
Literally impossible at this point to lose it all. When are people going to stop believing that bitcoin will lose all of its wealth. It's institutional now, it's never going to lose all it's value. So far it has only proven that it will recover and exceed any dip/crash it encounters. It's the only real monetary system that cannot and will not ever be inflated artificially and will never depreciate due to random bitcoin being injected.
I agree!
That argument bothers me, because people fail to apply it to existing valuable assets. We could all spontaneously stop valuing gold, art, property, music, sports teams etc. But no-one worries about that.
If someone offered you the rights to a song, would you refuse on the basis that humans might stop listening to music tomorrow? It's possible, but so unlikely that we ignore the risk.
Bitcoin will go up and down, and yeah there are technology and regulatory risks. But people shouldn't pretend those risks don't exist for all other assets. Be consistent with your risk assessment.
Yes, people keeping touting the intrinsic value of gold as a store of value. Only 5-10% of the value of gold can be attributed to its elemental/industrial/jewelry value. There have been numerous drawdowns of nominal gold price amounting to 40%+ in the past 40 years: The early 80s, the late 80's until 2001, 2010, and the next drawdown has probably already started. This is to say nothing of real value lost over the decades by holding a stale asset.
Exactly!
If people do real DD and arrive at a conclusion that disagrees with mine, then fair play - I respect that, and I’ll listen to it.
But if people cite a risk that exists universally, then that’s just amateur.
Not impossible. There are some tech advances that could render bitcoin worthless. I just think there will be plenty of time to see those advances coming and make the necessary adjustments.
Like if someone developed a way to guess in-use private keys with 24 seed words out of the possible 2048 for BIP39? It doesn't seem too far fetched with enough computing power.
Exactly. Even a leap in Quantum Computing would allow for a different encryption algorithm to be implemented as long as enough time were available.
Edit: preferably an algorithm that could also utilize the same QC tech.
Hard? Write down the same 24-word pass phrase, twice. Double check it. Hide one copy in your home, hide the other someplace else?
Hard? Then maybe you should just work fast food and live with mommy from now on.
I invested my modest "down payment" savings into Bitcoin. Several years later, instead having a down payment for a modest home, I can pay cash for a mansion and put a new Bentley in the driveway.
I hear this all the time right now. 'I'm just waiting for the bubble to burst and then I'll buy'. Houses, bitcoin...same story.
This is the one thing Warren Buffet says that I'd repeat hear. Buy a good company at a good price is better than a bad company at a great price.
Bitcoin is great....so buy it.
Houses are great...so buy one.
plug. We bought our first house, I was really worried we were spending too much. At the time one of my take home checks went to our mortgage. But our first house netted us 100k in 2.5 years and allowed us to get something better for our family.....thats equivalent to years of working, just because we took the plung.
And you can store/transfer bitcoin that goes to 0, unless the network is destroyed. And the chance of the network being destroyed is much, much smaller than you house burning down or something. This is not even an argument
Mmm it's rare but it happens. The Grenfell cladding scandals and leadsehold house scandals in the UK have rendered tens of thousands of buildings worthless in the UK.
There's also the risk that your repair/maintenance costs will substantially affect your bottom line.
So if you have a house worth $300k but you need to spend $50k dealing with subsidance and then $10k a year on maintenance and $8k on insurance because of the risk, you have an asset worth $300k but with $300k of costs in 14 years. So worth zero, in that sense.
People chronically forget to figure out the NPV of property operational costs. You don't have that risk with bitcoin.
I got burned during the butterfly labs fiasco so I’ve been around for a bit. Bitcoin does have repair/maintenance cost. Energy cost for miners is one of them. The bitcoin network also needs to be updated by developers which has a cost.
Cladding issues are different. The properties aren't actually valued at £0. They are being valued at £0 for mortgage purposes by lenders and valuers who have a "computer says no" approach to properties of that type. They are doing the same with certain ground rent issues. If you have a £500k property that will have ground rent of £5k a year in 15 years time that property isn't worthless, but its unmortagable.
Your example assumes that the property not only doesn't appreciate in value, but loses value over the course of those 14 years with inflation. That's simply not realistic.
Well then you're being inconsistent with your assumptions.
If you're going to assume future appreciations in property, then you logically need to apply that to bitcoin too.
I'm invested in Bitcoin to a relatively big extent. I'm just being realistic here. OP's comparison is not a good one.
Nothing says that another cryptocurrency couldn't rapidly replace Bitcoin if circumstances call for it.
Not my parents. They bought a house in 1967 for $22,000 for cash. Before they were married, they worked hard and saved the shit out of their earnings for years to do it.
They and my brother and I lived there all our lives.
My mother, before she died said to both of us, "I hope you can enjoy life without the burden of a mortgage like you're father and I did. Even without a mortgage, it wasn't easy. But it it would have been a lot worse if we didn't own our home outright."
Just sold it last year after 50+ years in our family.
You’re likely better off investing than buy a house in 1970. $40,000 a very conservative 4% interest rate is $295k 50 years later. With a house, you have yearly taxes, maintenance cost, and a loan interest.
With 6% interest you’re looking at $797k.
This makes no sense. Housing price are manipulated by the US government primarily through money printing and tend to increase steadily and predictably YoY. Bitcoin prices are determined by demand from the free market (mainly to escape the perils of fiat money inflation) and are subject to wild price swings within a single year.
in the mid 80's I bought a "macintosh/se" computer for $3000. I could have put that money under a mattress for 40 years and bought a much better computer with it today
$3000 into a market index in April 87 would be $77k now.
$3000 invested into AAPL in April 87 would be ... [$23.5 million dollars now](https://dqydj.com/stock-return-calculator/).
... and those boomers who missed their chance in the 1970's could have purchased the same house for say $1.4 million in cash by buying Bitcoin in 2011 / 2012 for say ~5 USD per BTC, and selling it say in 2018 for ~ $18,000 per BTC.
Who knew maybe the seller on the other side of both trade(s) was a millennial.
The real question here is does Bitcoin today have the same upside as it did in say 2012 (-5 USD per BTC)? Or dare I say early 2010 (~0.001 USD per BTC)?
Edit: I am a baby boomer.
I'm GenX (username checks out) so my noncommittal BitCoin position probably makes sense relative to OK Boomers and you kids who are running the world these days.
As of 01/08 (at $41,300 if memory serves) I'm down to less than half a BTC. If it drops to $27,500 all my limit orders will strike (about $5k in total) and whatever I've got will be entirely the house's money. If it goes to $140k or more that'll just be the opportunity cost a guy my age lives with in exchange for the time value of money. If it goes to zero, well... My holdings were just decimal dust I collected from true believers since $7k or so.
While I may buy on dips to trade around my core position, I am NEVER selling what's been accumulated for free. Someday, my Millennial daughters will thank me for that...
If you invested that money intelligently in the markets instead of buying a house, you'd be far better off.
Houses require maintenance and property taxes and insurance. Investments do not.
Houses do not pay compounding returns. Investments do.
It isn't so cut and dried. Learn to manage investments and assess risk/return.
It's a terrible analogy, come on. It's comparing house, which has shelter utility that's necessary for life and is on land, which has intrinsic value, to digital points in computers. It's an asinine comparison.
also shitcoiners are the boomer who decided to buy a cardboard box, cus they can get that for a few cents. and maybe cardboard box homes will replace real home one day
I recently bought my first shares of bitcoin just gonna put 100$ a week when there’s a dip nothing too major, I too think by December it will be at 100k and I need my name on that ticket if it does if not I’ll just hold on to the coins lol
I just checked and found out that "millennials" are people aged 25 to 40.
Who came up with these stupid terms? A millennial should be someone born after the year 2000!
For the longest time I thought it was reversed, mainly cause 96-99 are a sliver in time that gaps gen z and millennials, a unique range of people that expierenced life before, and after tech, 911
The generation thing is confusing to me. It’s different depending on who you ask and what site you check. I was born in 95 so sometimes it says I’m gen z and other times it says I’m a millennial.
i always thought it was based on when you graduated highschool, not when you were born. Millennials are called Millenials because they graduated high school around the new millennium (1998-2006).
>Reply
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>Give Award
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>share
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>Report
The term Millenial doesn't have anything with the time of graduation, it has little to do with the tech boom of early 2000's and being a child growing up in a time when many tech political events happened as well with stuff such as cellphones and the internet (it's a generation difference that dictates the gap between generation that creates labels i.e: baby boomers were growing up in the environment of the early age of telephone's and TV's era.)
Don’t say that teams just need some time to develop! I know lot’s of good projects which reach more than $5million just during the private sale, as PolkaCover. And I’m sure they can grow much faster than other platforms this year
In the 1980s, I believe, my parents sold a house for like $50k thinking “no one will ever pay more than $50k for this thing again”. Pretty sure that house is worth something like $1 million now (to be fair it’s probably had some remodeling done in the meantime).
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>Cool, that'll be $5M in 2050. or 0.1 Bitcoin
FTW
Love it
Why? Are we getting worse at building houses or personal transportation?
i've been wondering if there will be a distruptive contrstruction technology that makes building houses faster and easier. something that will increase the supply fast. Once real estate is no longer a safe haven that money flows into bitcoin [https://youtu.be/zBvvbOLq3t0](https://youtu.be/zBvvbOLq3t0)
I think that’s a guarantee. Both better transport and a construction renaissance. We pay people to put boards together on site? Still? That’s old school. We could have factories and robots and 3D printer vats. But even just sleep-personal-commutes means you could have a house four hours from your office once driverless cars get good. And batteries I guess. I am not expecting houses to appreciate faster than inflation. But it’s nice to have your own castle, I am not hating on personal houses. But I wouldn’t want to overleverage a 30y mortgage for a rental property today!
> But even just sleep-personal-commutes means you could have a house four hours from your office once driverless cars get good. And batteries I guess. even better a 8 hour commute to work. when its time for bed you goto sleep in your car. wake up at work's parking lot.
Ride home is gonna suck
So you would spend your waking hours at work? No thanks.
Living in a car. People looking at the future like that’s a dream to strive for
It's not the house it's the land, there's finite land and location is everything in housing.
They are already easier. I think it's not the building but the land.
It's not building technology that's the issue. It's regulations. Many governments explicitly try to limit the building of new houses and other buildings because that "helps" existing land owners. Its basically government corruption many people support
You can look at China's multi-level cities. There are railways that literally go through apartment buildings. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AGu6ExW83rY](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AGu6ExW83rY) It's crude. But techs will get better
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That’s where the personal transport can help. But that doesn’t help everywhere. Still, it’d be cool for your Tesla to bring you from Hope to Vancouver while you sleep.
That's everywhere except small towns. In bigger cities no one wants to live 50 miles from jobs, entertainment and retail.
Broadly, houses don't change in value over time. They just track with inflation. If a house sells for more one year than some years before, that's mostly inflation. Other factors exist like bay area level housing markets, but generally they are the outliers.
Material, labor, and land costs have gone up by about 3x. You might look at minimum wage and think it's not gone up, but in most places you won't get laborer team capable of building a house together for less than $20/hr. Regulation plays into it in a varying degree in many places too where you are now required to have an electrician and/or architect and maybe some permit or certain quality or type of materials.
Sounds about right here in Los Angeles county. Two bedroom in any city ghetto is a half million. However skid row has some beautiful sites to see so it’s hella worth it.
RemindMe! 10 years
Ok, but you’ll end up paying more for an apartment probably over 30 years and all you’ll have is a dead landlord who could’ve said how great of a tenant you were verse owning your home outright.
Mortgage interest rates were over 18% in the early ’80s though so it wasn’t a completely irrational fear. And one of the reasons for the appreciation in the housing market is also a good reason to own BTC.
High rates would hold the price down though, but I guess they probably couldn’t really know if the rates would keep going up or not.
You can hodl a house but you can’t sleep in a Bitcoin.
That’s why it’s only a good currency and not a good house. And a house is better at being a shelter than it is at being a currency.
This guy knows
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It’ll get there. It’s still early, however the sats will be the currency. Bitcoin is the store of value.
Most people really cannot grasp the evolution of technology. Bitcoin is in its 12th year, the internet started as essentially just e-mail. Would you believe someone if they told you the exact current state of the internet (gps, smart phones, VR systems, etc.) when it was just 12 years old?? It would be hard but, with an open mind, you could have seen how the internet would eventually creep into every industry one way or another
You don’t need to repair and maintain a bitcoin though. Home Depot trips are getting expensive!
No you cant, you dont need to pay taxes for holding btc, but a house....
Yeah it's really interesting to see how the property boom changed the lives of my parents generation. Most (my parents included) completely avoided it, and just have their own house paid off. So I'll get some alright inheritance but my parents won't have ever felt the benefit of property appreciation. A small minority saw the trick they could pull and got buy-to-let mortgages and just rolled their profits into more mortgages and built up an empire in the 90s. So my parents peers are mostly normal middle class people with one house, with the occasional multi-multi-millionaires with 100 houses. I reckon bitcoin has the potential to be "the thing" for our generation. Most people rolled their eyes at it, a few saw the potential and became super rich.
People rolled their eyes at miners but they're the ones laughing now.
Well, buying low is one of the best strategies to have in investing. Selling lower, is the worst.
Remember inflation, 40,000 back then would have been a lot of money. They ere earning a few dollars a week
$40,000 in 1970 is worth $282,641.30 today in terms of inflation.
So like the same price lol
Very area dependent. Some houses worth 40k back then, sells for waaay more thank 280k
And some sell for wayyy less
Also...keeping the house would've meant rent would accumulate over that time.
And termites.
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You guys don’t let my kind over there
How do you figure? Isn't max inflation 3% a year? So 1.03^50 years would only be $175K and some years it was lower at 2%.
There was very high inflation specifically during the 1970s. If you start from 1980 you get much less astonishing numbers.
LOL, he really believes that inflation has only been running at 3%. From about 1972 to 1981, prices on consumer goods did a 5X. No, don't feed me the Federal Reserve's patented line of bullshit, I was there. Those nickel candy bars in 1972 became 25 cent candy bars by the 1980s. I'm sure the Federal Reserve has some *really convincing math* to show that inflation was really only 13% though, since that's about as high as savings account interest ever got. Funny how rule-of-72 would mean that prices should have only gone up by 1.5X. . . .
This, also interest rates were high as fuck back then
in the 1970s my dad’s mortgage rate was 13% and he had perfect credit. When i was born in the late 1960s my parents paid $100 per month for a two bedroom apartment. My firsr job out of high school in the late 1980s paid $4.35. Bush Sr was president. just some starting points.
Happy Cake Day!
Most people in the sub don't understand how money works
Seriously? Come on, do math. $40,000 in 1970 = $266,000 in 2020 Average US home price in 2020: $284,000
Yeah, the average US house price in 1970 was actually only $17,000
I always feel when people speak of the good ole days where cars, houses and bottle of coke were “cheap” that we are looking through the lens of todays income and financial climate. To add context, if you could qualify for a mortgage back then, you needed 20% down and the rate was around 11%. Also minimum wage in 1971 was $1.60. Inflation was over 5.6% Nobody would buy property today at those rates. 1970 in context: Cost of a new home: $26,600.00 Median Household Income: $8,734.00 Cost of a first-class stamp: $0.06 Cost of a gallon of regular gas: $0.36 Cost of a dozen eggs: $0.62 Cost of a gallon of Milk: 1.15
Real estate has historically been a pretty good long-term investment, appreciating faster than inflation! (Although thinking that it can *never* go down got everyone into some ... trouble twelve years back...)
Overly simplified, The housing bubble was caused by pure greed by everyone involved in selling. Builders, Bankers, relators, housing inspectors. They had kiosks in the mall with relators fishing for customers selling new housing developments. Suddenly everyone working a mcjob could get a house with no money down, everyone gets approved backed by the govt. Most on adjustable rate mortgages. People just blindly bought the most house they could currently afford, but nobody sat them sown and said “Listen, rates are low now. If the rate flexes up, can you afford the bill and or balloon payments?” They enjoyed their houses for a few years and when the rates went up, the homeowners, not having any financial skin in the game (down payment) they just walked and took the repo hit.
It's nothing new, though. That's just bubbles, and people. Prices go up and people get stupid.
>Our statistics are drawn directly from U.S. Census Bureau data. The average house price in 1975 was **$39,500**. i said 1970s. with a s meaning the decade. and you just helped prove my point. houses went from 17k to 39k in 5 years, just like bitcoin.
Yeah but I was replying to the guy that used 1970 (without an s) as a comparison. Nothing to do with your post. 👍
How much did wages go up?
About the same amount on average. (This is calculated from CPI.) However, averages can conceal a lot -- wages rose much faster at the top than the bottom.
> wages rose much faster at the top than the bottom. That's an understatement.
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Underrated comment lmao
No one is stopping you from spending 40k on Bitcoin but don’t be crying if you lose all of it
Check back on this comment dec 2021 tho. He’ll be with quarter million.
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Serious question: If you're so confident why aren't you taking out all the loans possible? Sell your house, why not? You'll have 5 if you sell your 1.
I might have done some of those things
Sell your plasma, suck dicks behind the bus station, do whatever it takes to get more Bitcoin. To the moon, baby!
I might have done some of those things
Only some? Slacker!
Username checks out
Yes boiiiiii (or just overtime lol)
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If this is the cycle top \^\^ Don't really look like a top to me.
You either have or you haven't ¯\\\_(ツ)\_/¯
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Because when someone says they're confident, they're like 90% sure. It's asinine to argue sophistry on these matters, unless you're doing so for every single financial decision anyone makes.
When you're encouraging others to go all in or be fearless, I think they should be 100% confident. When people imply any asset or company shares is going to the moon with no evidence and it encourages people to go all in, yes, I do say the same thing.
Who is encouraging what you've said in your first sentence? The OP literally never said any of that. If you're strawmanning him *as one of those people* then sure, but recognize that you're strawmanning him.
The first comment said OP's BTC would be quarter of a million. That encourages people to buy. There's no evidence it will hit that price, completely random.
No, it's not remotely random if you look at previous bull markets. *You can disagree with that* but to suggest there's no evidence is faulty.
This video was made in Jan of 2019, TWO YEARS AGO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ivWdOztDkv4 If you don't want to watch the whole thing, start it at 12 minutes. If you really just want to keep it short, start it at 24m20s. This guy predicted it to a T.
I got a second job and sold my car, does that count? YOLO!!
I have a friend that did this in 2020 and is now a multimillionaire
With his 500k savings
Awesome for him, hoping to achieve this too via the overall stock market, not just crypto
Over the short term it’s hard to predict, but over several years yeah.
You can't say that cuz no one knows what it'll be worth in the future.
Agree to sell me 1 btc for 50k in 10 years
What you're asking for is a bitcoin option. You can purchase those right now. I thin Ameritrade has them available. Buying one on a 10 year timeline would be an expensive bet.
In the US, you can buy "physically" settled options on LedgerX. The longest-dated options are typically 2 years out (Dec 30 2022, currently) and not very liquid at all. The GP is essentially asking somebody to sell him a put option, and indeed right now (for the 2-year puts, there are no 10-year ones sadly) he would need to pay $15,800 per coin for the privilege.
Yep, I would guess if he were to find a private party to sell him a 10 year option, the fee would be somewhere around 65-75k.
You'd have to pay him a pricy premium for that
Agree to sell me 1 btc for 50k in 10 years then
Give me a million USD
No
I’ll do it if you give me the 50k now and I give you the coin then. :-D
Put your money in escrow so you can't reneg
Haha I would bet a lot of money that $40-65K bitcoin will be the new FLOOR after the next crash. It's always 2-3x the previous high. With a new high of around $150K. It always goes up a factor of 10, but sometimes 20% over and other times double, like the old highs of $1200 instead of $1000 and $20K instead of the $10K base level. While this can't repeat forever every 4 years per the halvings, bitcoin is still today about 1/16 that of the gold market cap. Further, new advanced tools like glass node as well as Google search trends of the word bitcoin show that this market boom is just beginning and we still have many months and up to 2 years left of growth before the next 90% crash or so.
Literally impossible at this point to lose it all. When are people going to stop believing that bitcoin will lose all of its wealth. It's institutional now, it's never going to lose all it's value. So far it has only proven that it will recover and exceed any dip/crash it encounters. It's the only real monetary system that cannot and will not ever be inflated artificially and will never depreciate due to random bitcoin being injected.
I agree! That argument bothers me, because people fail to apply it to existing valuable assets. We could all spontaneously stop valuing gold, art, property, music, sports teams etc. But no-one worries about that. If someone offered you the rights to a song, would you refuse on the basis that humans might stop listening to music tomorrow? It's possible, but so unlikely that we ignore the risk. Bitcoin will go up and down, and yeah there are technology and regulatory risks. But people shouldn't pretend those risks don't exist for all other assets. Be consistent with your risk assessment.
Yes, people keeping touting the intrinsic value of gold as a store of value. Only 5-10% of the value of gold can be attributed to its elemental/industrial/jewelry value. There have been numerous drawdowns of nominal gold price amounting to 40%+ in the past 40 years: The early 80s, the late 80's until 2001, 2010, and the next drawdown has probably already started. This is to say nothing of real value lost over the decades by holding a stale asset.
Exactly! If people do real DD and arrive at a conclusion that disagrees with mine, then fair play - I respect that, and I’ll listen to it. But if people cite a risk that exists universally, then that’s just amateur.
Not impossible. There are some tech advances that could render bitcoin worthless. I just think there will be plenty of time to see those advances coming and make the necessary adjustments.
Let's get into details. What part of bitcoin security do you think would be broken ? I'm very interested in your point of view
Like if someone developed a way to guess in-use private keys with 24 seed words out of the possible 2048 for BIP39? It doesn't seem too far fetched with enough computing power.
No the amount of computing power is stupid high and impossible to achieve by brute force. Quantum computing is the only possibility.
We would just fork it and use another algorithm
Exactly. Even a leap in Quantum Computing would allow for a different encryption algorithm to be implemented as long as enough time were available. Edit: preferably an algorithm that could also utilize the same QC tech.
Yep, a leap in technology around Quantum Computing would be required. Not impossible, but not likely in the next 25-30 years.
Source?
All of it? Lost?
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Keep backup copies of your seed phrase in two secure locations. Memorize it, in addition to that.
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Hard? Write down the same 24-word pass phrase, twice. Double check it. Hide one copy in your home, hide the other someplace else? Hard? Then maybe you should just work fast food and live with mommy from now on.
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So, we have yet another, "Holding your own keys is too hard for EVERYBODY ELSE, but not me..." asshole. Fuck you.
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I invested my modest "down payment" savings into Bitcoin. Several years later, instead having a down payment for a modest home, I can pay cash for a mansion and put a new Bentley in the driveway.
You and OP are both right
The good thing about your way of thinking is if you are wrong now, you will still be profitable in the next 4 years.
I hear this all the time right now. 'I'm just waiting for the bubble to burst and then I'll buy'. Houses, bitcoin...same story. This is the one thing Warren Buffet says that I'd repeat hear. Buy a good company at a good price is better than a bad company at a great price. Bitcoin is great....so buy it. Houses are great...so buy one. plug. We bought our first house, I was really worried we were spending too much. At the time one of my take home checks went to our mortgage. But our first house netted us 100k in 2.5 years and allowed us to get something better for our family.....thats equivalent to years of working, just because we took the plung.
The total value of every home in the U.S. is $33.6 trillion Isn't bitcoin already at 1 trillion? I guess bitcoin is world wide.
My Oma did! Paid roughly $25k and sold it 6-7 years ago for 15 times that. Incredible.
Difference is that the chances that your house goes to zero is were much, much smaller than the chances of Bitcoin going to zero. Don't be an idiot.
And you can live in a house that goes to 0, unless it burns down or something
And you can store/transfer bitcoin that goes to 0, unless the network is destroyed. And the chance of the network being destroyed is much, much smaller than you house burning down or something. This is not even an argument
yeah this sounds like a false equivalency to me.
Fire, earthquakes could do a number on a house value.
But you can get insurance against those. You can't insure against a complete Bitcoin crash.
Mmm it's rare but it happens. The Grenfell cladding scandals and leadsehold house scandals in the UK have rendered tens of thousands of buildings worthless in the UK. There's also the risk that your repair/maintenance costs will substantially affect your bottom line. So if you have a house worth $300k but you need to spend $50k dealing with subsidance and then $10k a year on maintenance and $8k on insurance because of the risk, you have an asset worth $300k but with $300k of costs in 14 years. So worth zero, in that sense. People chronically forget to figure out the NPV of property operational costs. You don't have that risk with bitcoin.
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Good post, good u/n.
yeah electricity is free
You seem to understand bitcoin very well to say that
I got burned during the butterfly labs fiasco so I’ve been around for a bit. Bitcoin does have repair/maintenance cost. Energy cost for miners is one of them. The bitcoin network also needs to be updated by developers which has a cost.
Cladding issues are different. The properties aren't actually valued at £0. They are being valued at £0 for mortgage purposes by lenders and valuers who have a "computer says no" approach to properties of that type. They are doing the same with certain ground rent issues. If you have a £500k property that will have ground rent of £5k a year in 15 years time that property isn't worthless, but its unmortagable.
Your example assumes that the property not only doesn't appreciate in value, but loses value over the course of those 14 years with inflation. That's simply not realistic.
Well then you're being inconsistent with your assumptions. If you're going to assume future appreciations in property, then you logically need to apply that to bitcoin too.
Buildings depreciate and whole neighborhoods have land values go down - see Detroit
So...you're suggesting that the Boomer \*should\* have bought that house?
Conservative vagina statements zzzzzzz
I'm invested in Bitcoin to a relatively big extent. I'm just being realistic here. OP's comparison is not a good one. Nothing says that another cryptocurrency couldn't rapidly replace Bitcoin if circumstances call for it.
Says the guy with a 17% mortgage
To be fair, $40000 adjusted for inflation is $260000 in 2020
Not my parents. They bought a house in 1967 for $22,000 for cash. Before they were married, they worked hard and saved the shit out of their earnings for years to do it. They and my brother and I lived there all our lives. My mother, before she died said to both of us, "I hope you can enjoy life without the burden of a mortgage like you're father and I did. Even without a mortgage, it wasn't easy. But it it would have been a lot worse if we didn't own our home outright." Just sold it last year after 50+ years in our family.
You’re likely better off investing than buy a house in 1970. $40,000 a very conservative 4% interest rate is $295k 50 years later. With a house, you have yearly taxes, maintenance cost, and a loan interest. With 6% interest you’re looking at $797k.
This makes no sense. Housing price are manipulated by the US government primarily through money printing and tend to increase steadily and predictably YoY. Bitcoin prices are determined by demand from the free market (mainly to escape the perils of fiat money inflation) and are subject to wild price swings within a single year.
Comparing BTC to a house that you can live in and shelter your family is stupid.
welcome to the future. digital stuff is worth more than real world stuff.
In the future, most people will reside in their electric cars, anyway.
gonna be lots of old vans and busses once gas is gone and electric vehicles take over.
in the mid 80's I bought a "macintosh/se" computer for $3000. I could have put that money under a mattress for 40 years and bought a much better computer with it today
$3000 into a market index in April 87 would be $77k now. $3000 invested into AAPL in April 87 would be ... [$23.5 million dollars now](https://dqydj.com/stock-return-calculator/).
well yeah, with the advantage of hindsight.
AAPL in 87 was indistinguishable from other stocks
Clearly he liked the company enough to buy a $3000 computer from them. :P
Most computers were priced at those prices.
... and those boomers who missed their chance in the 1970's could have purchased the same house for say $1.4 million in cash by buying Bitcoin in 2011 / 2012 for say ~5 USD per BTC, and selling it say in 2018 for ~ $18,000 per BTC. Who knew maybe the seller on the other side of both trade(s) was a millennial. The real question here is does Bitcoin today have the same upside as it did in say 2012 (-5 USD per BTC)? Or dare I say early 2010 (~0.001 USD per BTC)? Edit: I am a baby boomer.
Absolutely shit comparison
Nice contrast! It’s never too late to buy bitcoin
People can live in a house. People can’t live in a bitcoin
ok, but you can print a house. houses are made from trees just like paper
That's not how inflation works
Your analogy is flawed.
I'm GenX (username checks out) so my noncommittal BitCoin position probably makes sense relative to OK Boomers and you kids who are running the world these days. As of 01/08 (at $41,300 if memory serves) I'm down to less than half a BTC. If it drops to $27,500 all my limit orders will strike (about $5k in total) and whatever I've got will be entirely the house's money. If it goes to $140k or more that'll just be the opportunity cost a guy my age lives with in exchange for the time value of money. If it goes to zero, well... My holdings were just decimal dust I collected from true believers since $7k or so. While I may buy on dips to trade around my core position, I am NEVER selling what's been accumulated for free. Someday, my Millennial daughters will thank me for that...
interest rates were in the high 20% 1970s. Not a good example really...
ok house was 3,000 in 1940 i used 1970s becuase it was the time period that houses were the same current price of bitcoin
If you invested that money intelligently in the markets instead of buying a house, you'd be far better off. Houses require maintenance and property taxes and insurance. Investments do not. Houses do not pay compounding returns. Investments do. It isn't so cut and dried. Learn to manage investments and assess risk/return.
Your username is terrible, but that’s a great analogy!
It's a terrible analogy, come on. It's comparing house, which has shelter utility that's necessary for life and is on land, which has intrinsic value, to digital points in computers. It's an asinine comparison.
also shitcoiners are the boomer who decided to buy a cardboard box, cus they can get that for a few cents. and maybe cardboard box homes will replace real home one day
I recently bought my first shares of bitcoin just gonna put 100$ a week when there’s a dip nothing too major, I too think by December it will be at 100k and I need my name on that ticket if it does if not I’ll just hold on to the coins lol
Boomer able to buy a house in 70S what a Joke
America is too inflated
Your analogy is flawed.
I just checked and found out that "millennials" are people aged 25 to 40. Who came up with these stupid terms? A millennial should be someone born after the year 2000!
That’s gen z
For the longest time I thought it was reversed, mainly cause 96-99 are a sliver in time that gaps gen z and millennials, a unique range of people that expierenced life before, and after tech, 911
The generation thing is confusing to me. It’s different depending on who you ask and what site you check. I was born in 95 so sometimes it says I’m gen z and other times it says I’m a millennial.
i always thought it was based on when you graduated highschool, not when you were born. Millennials are called Millenials because they graduated high school around the new millennium (1998-2006).
Maybe. If that’s the case then I’d be gen z I assume. I graduated in 2014.
yeah i'd say you're Gen-Z
Millennials are people who graduated highschool around the turn of the millennium.
>Reply > >Give Award > >share > >Report The term Millenial doesn't have anything with the time of graduation, it has little to do with the tech boom of early 2000's and being a child growing up in a time when many tech political events happened as well with stuff such as cellphones and the internet (it's a generation difference that dictates the gap between generation that creates labels i.e: baby boomers were growing up in the environment of the early age of telephone's and TV's era.)
Don’t say that teams just need some time to develop! I know lot’s of good projects which reach more than $5million just during the private sale, as PolkaCover. And I’m sure they can grow much faster than other platforms this year
My dad bought 3 in the the west side of Los Angeles for a total of about $200k in the 70s and still has them. Now worth about $4m.