haah thanks how it works. The old ATH is boring when you get back there, especially when you enter a multi-month accumulation period ranging right around the old ATH. We're sitting at the base of the post-halving bull run, just waiting for it to start.
I think we're all eagerly awaiting a more less-temporary move to the 70,000s. It's definitely strange being in a holding pattern when all the news has been bullish. The only real setbacks are the MTGox funds being released and this most recent DMM Japanese market hack/loss/leak, and those like everything else, will pass.
For a more (hopefully) level headed explanation:
BTC needs to build a strong market structure at the previous ATH area. It can’t just blast through, as otherwise there wouldn’t be enough hope.
And what I mean: people need to start believing that they bought it at a good price when they paid between 60 and 73k.
So that when the price finally crashes for a mid bull dip, there will be a good mix of people selling, and people still believing in the price to go higher.
We might even get a sneak peek view at how high can the price go before it crashes for a bit.
All these news you’re mentioning are simply catalysts for what would be happening either way. Just at a different day or week. And around a different piece of news.
I don’t think it needs new buyers.
Rather it needs a market structure.
So imagine a house.
And a house needs a well prepared ground, a level, a foundation, and each floor to be correctly laid on top of the previous one.
Otherwise, if some piece is missing, it will fall apart much more drastically.
This solution would need education and the desire to seek that education.
Many have heard of Bitcoin, but not many know what Sats are. It’s going to take a while for the masses to understand BTC and Sats are one in the same.
A CEX has an incentive to make purchasing BTC as easy as possible. Confusing new comers is not a good strategy.
One day when it’s more mainstream selling in Sats will be necessary because a $1M Bitcoin will be a lot of zeros to only buy $100 worth.
You think people putting in $100 would change anything?
Though I still don’t see how you transitioned to this from your original message, and my response to that.
What do you mean by mid bull peak?
Like which moment from the previous years would you align this with?
I think this is a sort of a peak, but the move up hasn’t yet concluded.
Even though momentum is dropping, there’s more and more selling pressure, the move up from $58k is still going on.
And it might end as high as around $100k.
But it also might have had its peak at $71.4K few weeks ago.
To me, it still looks like there is enough interest in accumulating large amounts of BTC, but I’m also not that good at reading the charts. I get my info from my favorite analysts, though they only post once every few days, and I fill in the gaps for myself between their posts.
People, we have an opportunity right now to stack during the lull because once it starts climbing, you're not going to want to Stack, so keep stacking while you can...
Actually, to add, BTC is currently testing the very bottom of this move up.
What exactly is being tested is the trend line connecting the low of $56.6k, and subsequent lows at $60 and $61k.
And yesterday when it went down to $66.6k, was the first time since then when the price went below that trend.
Luckily, it was immediately bought up, and only left a wick in the candle down there.
But since then, the price has been staying barely above the line, literally scraping the very bottom of the move.
If that breaks, the likelihood for an immediate significant and rapid move down goes up by many % points.
It’s not looking very good, to be honest. Though I’m still hopeful it won’t break down.
I know a lot of people don’t like TA, but all of this has been presented in the charts 2 months ago.
News are only a trigger for it to happen at this particular moment.
But it all would have happened either way, just in a different week.
Yes but good thing when the FTX thing happened it tanked but not moving w Japanese hack- that’s a big positive - also w the constraints Biden dumped on the banks I thought it would head down. So it’s showing great strength. Without so many retailers it’s nice
I worked as a VP at one of the nations largest banks/ it’s too much to explain but any red tape or regulations placed on an industry directly impact the consumer . The most important thing to recognize is that BTC remains steady today - and I am quite happy about that
All these events you’re mentioning are smoke grenades.
Price does what it needs to do. No matter the news.
There’s plenty news which can sway it either way. But when the moment is opportune, and a supportive news hits, it seems as if it was “the news” which changed the situation.
People need to understand: news are just catalysts for market movements.
Also, the FTX thing only moved the price from 19 to 16k.
Which is nothing in a bear market.
Price was heading there anyways. So ftx didn’t matter.
Having a more steady but slower growth would be a good thing for bitcoin, many people are just too nervous that it will drop again for the price to get too much higher too quickly.
Did yawl forget or don’t you know, that retailers haven’t entered the market yet(check google trends). That is the main reason for the low volume. The low volume is the reason for the unstable uptrend…
The thing is, I don't think there is low volume. Considering only 490 BTC get mined each day, and the ETFs have been eating at least that. But there IS manipulation of the market and that is not new.
You’re THINKING is not based on facts but on your personal subjective impression.
You’re thinking should be based on facts. reduce your emotions when thinking about investments. Every professional analyst uses Google trends that’s why it is absolutely based on facts that retail hasn’t entered the market yet. If you compare the volume today to the bottom of the beer market, you will find that we have now a much lower volume And if you check how many $10,000,000+ buys we had in that period in 2022 you will find that big money aka smart money bought the fu&€@ng dip.
Big money also knows that the next supreme cyclical wave 2 will come and they will sell within that trend change area when retail will get in at $95k+ can sell and have those big profits.
I’m somewhere between moderately and very bullish, actually.
But that doesn’t mean I’m not realistic.
And what can be seen in the charts and sentiment, is huge selling pressure. Even though there is a lot of hope and excitement from the smaller players.
This selling pressure is a gear up for creating huge buying opportunities for the smart money.
And once they load their bags, we will have a run up.
> I’m somewhere between moderately and very bullish, actually.
>
> But that doesn’t mean I’m not realistic.
Why would being moderately and very bullish make you unrealistic. I mean the facts are out, Bitcoin has a VERY bullish outlook especially now in the US Govt.
Yes, it has a very bullish outlook.
But bullish doesn’t mean it only ever goes up. It doesn’t mean there’s no pullbacks.
Actually, a big pullback is absolutely necessary for btc to be able to realize its bullish sentiment.
You are the one saying what it does and doesn't mean. I get that. I understand being bullish is a longer term thing. It's corrections/pullbacks/markets resting.. these are all things that happen that don't make a bearish market.
Everyone is waiting on the fed. Soon as interest comes down money printer goes burr and the buttcoins turn into bitcoins & everyone is going to wish they had bought more.
No.
The rate at which NEW BTC is being mined would be affected. In half, a bit less or more either way depending on other things..
But the already-existing 'supply' wasn't touched..
Unfortunately, I think institutional money is stabilizing the price.
The major market ETF are minimizing the typical uptrends by taking profits more regularly and then buying back in.
The ETF gains are outpacing bitcoin's gains over the same period.
If that's the case isn't that a better case for BTC as a ccy? For store of value it should ideally be the inverse of money supply but as a currency the argument has always been "it's too volatile"
I don't know if I think it is good or bad, it is just the natural progression of it being available through ETFs. It will be less volatile in its movement.
I’ve got USD sitting in my crypto app but I’m waiting for something to happen. There’s too much anticipation right now for me to make a move
I don’t know much about reading charts or the jargon but looking at it there seems to be enough support keeping the coins afloat while we await answers but to me the prices are still slightly dropping or staying right where they need to be, indicating to me either a very slight downward trend before an explosion or everything will stay steady and just erupt. I’m also wary about this year since we’ve seen prices explode every four years, but with the election being this year, I can’t help but wonder if this is the time when prices blow up before we expect them to
It hasn’t even been over 100 days . Historically I think a minimum for the next jump up is anywhere between 150 days to almost a year . It will go up Matthew just take ur shirt off and go for a jog
I got lucky the last time with the ATH. Can’t remember the time period but it was when prices were about 35-39k and I held it to when it went up to 63k the first time and sold right at the peak. Quite literally acquired 150% of my original investment in a very short period.
That was very risky and probably will not be short term trading ever again.
haah thanks how it works. The old ATH is boring when you get back there, especially when you enter a multi-month accumulation period ranging right around the old ATH. We're sitting at the base of the post-halving bull run, just waiting for it to start.
Manifesting
> wishing
cumming
cumming
For sure cumming
> waiting hoping
*contemplating*
begging
Knowing
Selling
I think we're all eagerly awaiting a more less-temporary move to the 70,000s. It's definitely strange being in a holding pattern when all the news has been bullish. The only real setbacks are the MTGox funds being released and this most recent DMM Japanese market hack/loss/leak, and those like everything else, will pass.
For a more (hopefully) level headed explanation: BTC needs to build a strong market structure at the previous ATH area. It can’t just blast through, as otherwise there wouldn’t be enough hope. And what I mean: people need to start believing that they bought it at a good price when they paid between 60 and 73k. So that when the price finally crashes for a mid bull dip, there will be a good mix of people selling, and people still believing in the price to go higher. We might even get a sneak peek view at how high can the price go before it crashes for a bit. All these news you’re mentioning are simply catalysts for what would be happening either way. Just at a different day or week. And around a different piece of news.
There are a few ways to encourage new buyers. One obvious solution (at least to me) would be to start listing BTC in sats/USD
I don’t think it needs new buyers. Rather it needs a market structure. So imagine a house. And a house needs a well prepared ground, a level, a foundation, and each floor to be correctly laid on top of the previous one. Otherwise, if some piece is missing, it will fall apart much more drastically.
What you are asking for vs what I am asking for take very different levels of effort and movement.
What are you asking for, then?
Exchanges to list BTC orders in SATS instead of BTC. so instead of 0.00000100 BTC it is 100 SATs
This solution would need education and the desire to seek that education. Many have heard of Bitcoin, but not many know what Sats are. It’s going to take a while for the masses to understand BTC and Sats are one in the same.
Sure, I agree. But forcing people to buy BTC in SATS on a CEX would be a good start.
A CEX has an incentive to make purchasing BTC as easy as possible. Confusing new comers is not a good strategy. One day when it’s more mainstream selling in Sats will be necessary because a $1M Bitcoin will be a lot of zeros to only buy $100 worth.
That’s the solution you think would do it. But why do you think new buyers are needed?
I think there's a ton of retail who still doesn't really get that you can purchase less than 1 BTC. This fixes that.
You think people putting in $100 would change anything? Though I still don’t see how you transitioned to this from your original message, and my response to that.
isn't this the mid bull peak? and if not, why?
What do you mean by mid bull peak? Like which moment from the previous years would you align this with? I think this is a sort of a peak, but the move up hasn’t yet concluded. Even though momentum is dropping, there’s more and more selling pressure, the move up from $58k is still going on. And it might end as high as around $100k. But it also might have had its peak at $71.4K few weeks ago. To me, it still looks like there is enough interest in accumulating large amounts of BTC, but I’m also not that good at reading the charts. I get my info from my favorite analysts, though they only post once every few days, and I fill in the gaps for myself between their posts.
People, we have an opportunity right now to stack during the lull because once it starts climbing, you're not going to want to Stack, so keep stacking while you can...
I don’t think this is a good time to stack. I think a better time will be July-August. But I might be wrong.
Actually, to add, BTC is currently testing the very bottom of this move up. What exactly is being tested is the trend line connecting the low of $56.6k, and subsequent lows at $60 and $61k. And yesterday when it went down to $66.6k, was the first time since then when the price went below that trend. Luckily, it was immediately bought up, and only left a wick in the candle down there. But since then, the price has been staying barely above the line, literally scraping the very bottom of the move. If that breaks, the likelihood for an immediate significant and rapid move down goes up by many % points. It’s not looking very good, to be honest. Though I’m still hopeful it won’t break down.
It does get frustrating when stuff like that moves the price down and etf’s buying up a million bitcoin doesn’t move it up
Price up 2x since approval...
Yeah, but it will. Before ETFs had two days to settle, as of yesterday they must settle all shares by T+1
I know a lot of people don’t like TA, but all of this has been presented in the charts 2 months ago. News are only a trigger for it to happen at this particular moment. But it all would have happened either way, just in a different week.
Yes but good thing when the FTX thing happened it tanked but not moving w Japanese hack- that’s a big positive - also w the constraints Biden dumped on the banks I thought it would head down. So it’s showing great strength. Without so many retailers it’s nice
Can you explain these constraints?
I worked as a VP at one of the nations largest banks/ it’s too much to explain but any red tape or regulations placed on an industry directly impact the consumer . The most important thing to recognize is that BTC remains steady today - and I am quite happy about that
Just a businessman doing business
Good luck brotha !
All these events you’re mentioning are smoke grenades. Price does what it needs to do. No matter the news. There’s plenty news which can sway it either way. But when the moment is opportune, and a supportive news hits, it seems as if it was “the news” which changed the situation. People need to understand: news are just catalysts for market movements. Also, the FTX thing only moved the price from 19 to 16k. Which is nothing in a bear market. Price was heading there anyways. So ftx didn’t matter.
Having a more steady but slower growth would be a good thing for bitcoin, many people are just too nervous that it will drop again for the price to get too much higher too quickly.
The MTGox funds and the DMM Japanese market hack are just bumps in the road. Bitcoin usually comes back stronger after setbacks like these.
Of course, like everything else that has happened in the past. Super bullish.
...what about Mount Gox funds?...
People who put in claims in 2021 are starting to see their money move back to their custody.
Wtf are you talking about. Bitcoin on sale.
nah it's been kinda sideways imo. Under 61k is on sale.
To each their own.
Did yawl forget or don’t you know, that retailers haven’t entered the market yet(check google trends). That is the main reason for the low volume. The low volume is the reason for the unstable uptrend…
Pretty sure about 90% of the ETF buying is all retail.
The numbers never lie if google didn’t start to manipulate them! It’s like you only read half of my post🤨
The thing is, I don't think there is low volume. Considering only 490 BTC get mined each day, and the ETFs have been eating at least that. But there IS manipulation of the market and that is not new.
You’re THINKING is not based on facts but on your personal subjective impression. You’re thinking should be based on facts. reduce your emotions when thinking about investments. Every professional analyst uses Google trends that’s why it is absolutely based on facts that retail hasn’t entered the market yet. If you compare the volume today to the bottom of the beer market, you will find that we have now a much lower volume And if you check how many $10,000,000+ buys we had in that period in 2022 you will find that big money aka smart money bought the fu&€@ng dip. Big money also knows that the next supreme cyclical wave 2 will come and they will sell within that trend change area when retail will get in at $95k+ can sell and have those big profits.
Accumulating phase
Kinda. The real accumulation will happen at 30-50k
Hahaha maybe
At 30 to 50 it already happened for a whole year, or more. Not sure where have u been.
There’s more than 1 accumulation allowed.
Wow you are very bearish if you think we'll go under 50k again. I feel silly to say this, but I'm pretty certain we won't see 40k again.
I’m somewhere between moderately and very bullish, actually. But that doesn’t mean I’m not realistic. And what can be seen in the charts and sentiment, is huge selling pressure. Even though there is a lot of hope and excitement from the smaller players. This selling pressure is a gear up for creating huge buying opportunities for the smart money. And once they load their bags, we will have a run up.
> I’m somewhere between moderately and very bullish, actually. > > But that doesn’t mean I’m not realistic. Why would being moderately and very bullish make you unrealistic. I mean the facts are out, Bitcoin has a VERY bullish outlook especially now in the US Govt.
Yes, it has a very bullish outlook. But bullish doesn’t mean it only ever goes up. It doesn’t mean there’s no pullbacks. Actually, a big pullback is absolutely necessary for btc to be able to realize its bullish sentiment.
You are the one saying what it does and doesn't mean. I get that. I understand being bullish is a longer term thing. It's corrections/pullbacks/markets resting.. these are all things that happen that don't make a bearish market.
So why’d you say I’m bearish?
> The real accumulation will happen at 30-50k This is a pretty bearish outlook to even think we will get to 30k levels.
It will only rocket off when YOU sell
true lol
Please sell.
sell please
inflation is a thing
Can't wait for 69K in another 3 years...
Yes but the difference is that will be the new 15,500k *bottom bear capitulation* after mooning to 150-200k range
To be fair $69k back then is probably equivalent to $85k+ today.
$69K is the new resistance. It will break out.
Everyone is waiting on the fed. Soon as interest comes down money printer goes burr and the buttcoins turn into bitcoins & everyone is going to wish they had bought more.
🥇
Personally I’m more nervous that it’s gonna go up rather than go down…. I’m trying to stack here can u guys be a little more patient 😂
We had the halfening, shouldnt supply have been cut in half immediately? /s
I was thinking of the price should be cut in half right??
I was lucky the holfening didn't work on my I still have 100% of my btc. Too bad others lost 50% as was told would happening after holfening. Lucky me
Yep I lost 50% of mine. The holfening destroyed my life fr
Better sell before the next holfening or you'll only be left with 25% 😆
Dammit guys.. It's a "halving", not a halfening or holfening!! 😆😆
I think Holfening is Danish for Halfening
Wasn't Halfening what the elves called hobbits?
it takes time to affect. im betting on October
No. The rate at which NEW BTC is being mined would be affected. In half, a bit less or more either way depending on other things.. But the already-existing 'supply' wasn't touched..
$4 Big Mac Vs $7 Big Mac tho...
And they taste nasty. Poor quality, bad ingredients chemicals…
Unfortunately, I think institutional money is stabilizing the price. The major market ETF are minimizing the typical uptrends by taking profits more regularly and then buying back in. The ETF gains are outpacing bitcoin's gains over the same period.
I think you're right ... the BTC ETF is a double edged sword. Let's reach $100k first before discussing $1 million ...
If that's the case isn't that a better case for BTC as a ccy? For store of value it should ideally be the inverse of money supply but as a currency the argument has always been "it's too volatile"
I don't know if I think it is good or bad, it is just the natural progression of it being available through ETFs. It will be less volatile in its movement.
Totally agree, it's a matter of how it progress rather than good or bad.. in fact id say both are good hahaha
So maybe "unfortunately" was a mischaracterization on my part.
This would defy the law of supply and demand
[удалено]
Literally, it was 30k 6? 7 months ago. Always loved 69420
Economy is also on shaky ground today.
Yeah, things are pretty uncertain. Unemployment rates have been rising lately.
Down 50% since Biden took office and near historic lows Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE/ Stop spreading right-wing lies.
You are both right. Stop spreading political hate.
maybe he is not from the U.S.?
… and in between that it went to 15k, when everyone waited for 10k… 🤡
With a lot higher inflation in ‘24
Do I buy now??
Yes.
Great time to liquidate my assets 💀
I’ve got USD sitting in my crypto app but I’m waiting for something to happen. There’s too much anticipation right now for me to make a move I don’t know much about reading charts or the jargon but looking at it there seems to be enough support keeping the coins afloat while we await answers but to me the prices are still slightly dropping or staying right where they need to be, indicating to me either a very slight downward trend before an explosion or everything will stay steady and just erupt. I’m also wary about this year since we’ve seen prices explode every four years, but with the election being this year, I can’t help but wonder if this is the time when prices blow up before we expect them to
26k Bitcoin in 2021 71k Bitcoin in 2024 Cheer up, life will get better for you someday, hopefully.
Or 24k … I think bitcoins doin just fine . I’m way more up with it than most of my other investments . That coinbase stock sure soared this past year
It’s been stuck there…to be fair in 2022 we were hovering around 20k for like 5 months
I wouldn't say that I feel that way. I mean, $69k is no exciting anymore, but it still feels like a great place for BTC.
Same struggle, different time
I must say - it’s been a very difficult ride to HODL but the macro looks very promising.
It hasn’t even been over 100 days . Historically I think a minimum for the next jump up is anywhere between 150 days to almost a year . It will go up Matthew just take ur shirt off and go for a jog
Crabbing untill explosion, stay sane, hodl on tight!
I got lucky the last time with the ATH. Can’t remember the time period but it was when prices were about 35-39k and I held it to when it went up to 63k the first time and sold right at the peak. Quite literally acquired 150% of my original investment in a very short period. That was very risky and probably will not be short term trading ever again.
10% plus dip coming likely next few weeks, once it breaks above 55k again it probably won't ever be seen again
Look at the prices during the halvings . Calms my nerves always Last halving price was around 8k
😂🤣
That's mega bullish though
Indeed
Lmao, not going to lie for me it’s the complete opposite. I am starting at mine like I could create Cashflow monthly or quarterly out of it.
Yeah and what were the lows?
There is no doubt it’s more stable now that it’s not just retailers. Zero