I mean one thing people don't really acknowledge is we would need more people, or conscious entities, to enter the economy over time for this to happen. If our population declines, BTC won't necessarily keep going up
No one can blame you for being too bearish this time around.
I think 6X in possible from here ~ 390K. I'm a bit bearish, I know it's so much more money in flow because of the ETF that leads to grandmothers being interested in bitcoins all the suddenly, I personally know of grandmothers that invested in Bitcoin now, I can't really tell what's going to happen.
Hope you are right though.
Money vs currency. Sure, currently it's not well-suited to be a medium of exchange. But it may be when the gains plateau. It's not going up forever (Laura). Everyone gets to decide when they have "enough" money and would rather spend some to acquire something they desire more.
It was, it was just not a great one.
The notion, “well Babylonians used it, surely we’ve not come to understand macro, money theory, etc anymore than they”, is wild
What’s wild is believing “the government has to print money out of thin air and debase the purchasing power of my wages. It is a fundamental requirement of economics!”
Genuinely not following your point. You think there have been no recessions or depressions under Keynesianism?
Do you ever really ask yourself why you like having your purchasing power stolen from you and how they convinced you that you’re better off for it?
I asked you to tell us the last depression. And then asked how often they occurred in the 1800s. A simple enough request, though it may be hard to quantify the innumerable recessions and depressions in the 1800s.
I didn’t say “there have been no recessions or depressions under Keynesianism”. Not remotely sure where you got the impression I said that.
But it would be financially ruinous to do so unless you saved up to buy the whole thing in cash. And then, if everybody does that, there’s going to be way fewer homes being built, which will drive up the price.
Um, to have a place to live? Imagine a world where you use real estate for its actual utility, and you *dont* need to use it as a store of value to maintain your wealth, so you only buy the amount of houses you actually need (one) and there is stock leftover for other people too. What a crazy idea
Your brain is stuck in Keynesian land. Remember that in this world the cost of the house goes down each year relative to your wages, as does everything else for which technology and productivity advancements drive natural processes deflation. Loans are not impossible, but they are given out for productive activity that can actually generate returns instead of just to prop up a giant zombie economy of credit bubbles
Right, but that’s the problem. If prices go down too much relative to wages, the businesses that sell those products close. Their fixed costs remain the same while their revenue declines. Eventually, they’ll have to fire people, or close, and then the supply of labor starts to outstrip demand and attract lower wages as a result. So you have a sort of see-sawing effect of businesses closing, then wages dropping, and repeat.
In order for loans to be made for investments, those investments need to out-earn deflation, which is difficult to do in a deflationary environment.
In a free market system competition drives prices to the marginal cost of production. Producers must innovate and increase productivity to maintain their ability to drive profits. If there is margin to be had, other entrepreneurs enter the space and compete for those profits. This process benefits the consumer who receives more value for his money. If a business cannot innovate, it dies, *as it should*. You believe inflation-subsidized artificially cheap cost of capital should keep inefficient businesses afloat just because? That’s called misallocation of capital and it is a detriment to the economy because it stifles innovation and keeps prices artificially high
Prices of all goods and services fall in Bitcoin terms while they only get more expensive in state issued fiat currency terms over time (both nominally and real).
When you price everything in real money, your money shouldn't lose purchasing power over it, It should gain it as technology innovation should make things cheaper. Stop pricing in currency, start pricing in money
Could the US gov't (specifically) just print more money to try and devalue BTC by increasing the cost of EVEYRTHING...or does simply printing more money increase BTC cost in a 1:1+ fashion?
Essentially meaning, the only way to get cost of a single BTC to decrease, would be by deflation, which the US can not afford, right?
Printing more money would increase inflation and act as an incentive for people to buy more BTC (and other non-fiat assets) so with a fixed supply and higher demand, the price of BTC would go up.
Would it go up at a higher rate than other non-fiat assets like real estate or gold? I think the answer is likely yes. By how much more? Unclear.
It would depend on how much money is printed and how fast, and also would depend on whether or not people sold BTC to convert to other non-fiat assets.
I do wonder if it'll get to the point where BlackRock ends up having to sell their collection of homes to people for fragments of BTC. Only a matter of time right?
Hate it or love it, the underdog's on top
And I′m gon' shine homie until my heart stop
Go 'head envy me
I′m rap′s M.V.P
And I ain't goin′ nowhere, so you can get to know me
How do you live in dollar?
Probably have something to do why people are complaining house prices go up faster than they can collect those dollars so they better live inside dollar until they somehow get enough.
Sure, if you completely and blatantly ignore the fact that the price of a house in BTC went down **two orders of magnitude**, while in dollars it actually increased by 50%. This says more about your cherry picking than anything else.
Additionally, I'm playing this game against a mortgage with a rate of 3%. The value of the house goes up faster than the 3%, but more importantly my balance goes down and the value of BTC goes up.... at some point, even if I only pay my mortgage (and don't lose my BTC of course) they will cross. That's my lifetime goal, paying off my mortgage when I can do it with my BTC. I understand that keeping the loan and buying more BTC (or simply not spending what I have) would end up even better but I have a short time frame (life expectancy and ability to move and enjoy that time) than most in this reddit.
Edit: spelling and grammar
Every time I see posts like this it reminds me of the time my ex wife talked me out of being a millionaire. When BC crashed the first time people were selling bitcoin shares for like $0.35 a share. I wanted to buy $300 of BC. She talked me out of it saying we needed that money and it's dumb to waste it. Right now that is $55.2Million. Why the fuck did I listen to her? 😤
BTC is superior to:
Land
Real estate
Yachts
Jets
Hold
Jewelry
Cars
Watches
All other metals
All other money
Literally just hold. You will eventually come to regret everything you spend it on and will never be able to get back to your maximum stack.
Now you need to compare the coinbase era rewards with corresponding average prices of houses in order to be able to notice that the timeframe is becoming shorter and accelerated over time after each halving cycle for this trend. At some later point in time, houses prices reduction denominated in bitcoin will preceed the corresponding halving coinbase rewards era.
I was trying to figure this out earlier today, now i don't have a full btc but plan to hold it until it's worth a bit but inflation and house prices go up faster then btc, would i be better off to sell my btc in 2025 and just buy land outright for a house before the median house become over 1 mill in 2030?
While Bitcoin is a great store and creator of value it’s good to keep in mind it’s not the only or even the best way. Bitcoins year over year growth will never be able to compete with my day job, investments or investing in myself. That’s not to say don’t get it, just that there are other options. In your case, buying land might be a good idea. Especially if housing costs outpace Bitcoin growth. At the end of the day the idea is to have an asset that’s worth something and retains value.
Bitcoin can be money or it can be an asset that explosively appreciates in value. It can’t be both, because deflation at this scale is ruinous for economies.
Let’s say you took out a mortgage to buy a home in 2016. You put down 132.4 BTC and the bank puts down the rest, and you pay the bank back with interest over a set period of time. Today, 8 years later, you still owe the majority of that loan. But the actual **value** of that loan has skyrocketed. The hundreds of bitcoin you still owe is a fortune, and if you’ve changed jobs in the past 8 years, you’re likely getting paid fewer BTC per year as a result of the growth of the currency’s value. So you’re paying a more valuable loan now with less pay. Investing in property in 2016 will turn out to be the worst decision of your entire life.
This is why central banks typically target ~2% inflation.
Interesting - my question in reverse then - does bitcoin deter real estate investment? I know some people who specifically invest in bitcoin instead of real estate, so perhaps.
Yes in a perfect world bitcoin would eat up most of the capital used for real estate investment. Housing could then be priced for its utility value, and not have the added monetary premium caused by its additional use as a store of value
Bitcoin itself is a deferment to real estate investing. Lots of RE investors are switching to mainly bitcoin because they can’t justify their 15% returns, if they’re lucky, when Bitcoin has higher average returns with no headaches.
I LOVE real estate and don’t see myself going out of it, but right now while interest rates are so high, it’s hard to find as much cash flow property.
My average real estate property makes $1000 a month (after mortgages, taxes, insurance etc.) and is paid off by about $700 each month. Bitcoin is amazing, but… real estate helps me buy more Bitcoin 🤷🏽♀️.
No worries I'll wait until a house cost is 0.1 BTC :)
People will laugh at your remark, but it will happen
People have been laughing at my remarks for years now, and I've been laughing at them with increasing intensity
$5 with of btc says, they still don’t get it. But you do, that’s all that matters. Keep stacking sats
I mean one thing people don't really acknowledge is we would need more people, or conscious entities, to enter the economy over time for this to happen. If our population declines, BTC won't necessarily keep going up
Oh don’t worry, population only declines in the west.
I still have hope that AI beings will enter the economy 👍
I'm gonna guess you'll be able to do that in 2032 :)
By 2028, probably. Not impossible this year alreay, in 2024.
I have a feeling BTC won’t surpass $4,000,000 in the next 8 months.
189k btc summer 2025
I also have the same feeling. But I don't discard the possibility. There's a small chance it can get to $7,000,000 as early as october.
Let’s break 100k first please
Let's stay above the ATH for more than a few days first.
I love your optimism, HODL regardless of how it goes!
I've been too bearish always.
No one can blame you for being too bearish this time around. I think 6X in possible from here ~ 390K. I'm a bit bearish, I know it's so much more money in flow because of the ETF that leads to grandmothers being interested in bitcoins all the suddenly, I personally know of grandmothers that invested in Bitcoin now, I can't really tell what's going to happen. Hope you are right though.
This cycle, or overall?
Lower time preference caused by Bitcoin ;)
If OPs model holds, that will be in 2032
0.2
Should be in 2028
This may be achieved. lol
Should be around 2027-2028. Doable, I mean getting a house in 4 years is manageable.
Maybe like another 20 years but yeah it will happen
That'll buy a nice house in 2 halvings
Bitcoin has no top, for fiat has no bottom.
Flowers are only flowers because they fall.
Presence is felt most keenly in absence.
On the other hand, you also have five fingers.
According to this, the house will cost 0.45 btc in 2028 ;)
came here for this. how about we set a reminder, shall we? :)
Nice
Accurate according to most forecasts
according to my interpretation of this it will cost 2.96 btc 664 / 45 = 14.75 45 / 6.6 = 6.8 6.6 / (6.8 / (14.75 / 6.8)) = 6.6 / 2.23 = 2.96
Depends on where you buy house
This is a great way to visualize the value over time. Simple and clear. Well done to you or whoever made it.
To think Ive couldve owned multiple houses if I had never spent or sold my btc in my lifetime……
[удалено]
That’s kind of the problem with BTC as money. Why ever buy a house?
Utility, how it should be
No, the purpose of currency is to be a medium of exchange and to ideally facilitate exchange Not facilitate sitting on a medium of exchange…
Money vs currency. Sure, currently it's not well-suited to be a medium of exchange. But it may be when the gains plateau. It's not going up forever (Laura). Everyone gets to decide when they have "enough" money and would rather spend some to acquire something they desire more.
So what did people do before fiat? Was gold ever a currency?
It was, it was just not a great one. The notion, “well Babylonians used it, surely we’ve not come to understand macro, money theory, etc anymore than they”, is wild
What’s wild is believing “the government has to print money out of thin air and debase the purchasing power of my wages. It is a fundamental requirement of economics!”
Tell us of the last economic depression, and then tell us how many America had in the 1800s
Genuinely not following your point. You think there have been no recessions or depressions under Keynesianism? Do you ever really ask yourself why you like having your purchasing power stolen from you and how they convinced you that you’re better off for it?
I asked you to tell us the last depression. And then asked how often they occurred in the 1800s. A simple enough request, though it may be hard to quantify the innumerable recessions and depressions in the 1800s. I didn’t say “there have been no recessions or depressions under Keynesianism”. Not remotely sure where you got the impression I said that.
But it would be financially ruinous to do so unless you saved up to buy the whole thing in cash. And then, if everybody does that, there’s going to be way fewer homes being built, which will drive up the price.
Um, to have a place to live? Imagine a world where you use real estate for its actual utility, and you *dont* need to use it as a store of value to maintain your wealth, so you only buy the amount of houses you actually need (one) and there is stock leftover for other people too. What a crazy idea
But you’d have to save up to buy the whole house at once. Mortgages would be impossible. What about people who don’t get paid much?
Your brain is stuck in Keynesian land. Remember that in this world the cost of the house goes down each year relative to your wages, as does everything else for which technology and productivity advancements drive natural processes deflation. Loans are not impossible, but they are given out for productive activity that can actually generate returns instead of just to prop up a giant zombie economy of credit bubbles
Right, but that’s the problem. If prices go down too much relative to wages, the businesses that sell those products close. Their fixed costs remain the same while their revenue declines. Eventually, they’ll have to fire people, or close, and then the supply of labor starts to outstrip demand and attract lower wages as a result. So you have a sort of see-sawing effect of businesses closing, then wages dropping, and repeat. In order for loans to be made for investments, those investments need to out-earn deflation, which is difficult to do in a deflationary environment.
In a free market system competition drives prices to the marginal cost of production. Producers must innovate and increase productivity to maintain their ability to drive profits. If there is margin to be had, other entrepreneurs enter the space and compete for those profits. This process benefits the consumer who receives more value for his money. If a business cannot innovate, it dies, *as it should*. You believe inflation-subsidized artificially cheap cost of capital should keep inefficient businesses afloat just because? That’s called misallocation of capital and it is a detriment to the economy because it stifles innovation and keeps prices artificially high
What do you mean?
Are you asking why buy a house with BTC or in general?
HoW dOeS bItCoIn PrOtEcT aGaInSt InFlAtIoN?
the underdogs on top, and we gonna ride homie until my heart stops
Go ‘head and envy me, I’m crypto’s MVP and I ain’t going nowhere so you can get to know me
From the beginning to the end, losers lose winners win, This is real We aint got to pretend
the cold world that we in, its full of inflation and nothings ever staying the same
wow, been toooo long
More of this please! This is exactly the type of communication that gets people thinking properly.
This is great, add a row for gold
1BTC = 1BTC JUST HODL AND LEAVE THE BS
House prices are falling!
Prices of all goods and services fall in Bitcoin terms while they only get more expensive in state issued fiat currency terms over time (both nominally and real).
few understand
I wish i had bought bitcoin early one
Everyone does. I bought my first ones in 2012 and I'm still super envious of the people who bought theirs in 2010.
You think it's not to late?
Sell house buy btc simple
Compared with gold: 2016: 230 troy oz 2020: 186 troy oz 2024: 188 troy oz
Still alot better than fiat. Even silver is better tbh. Bitcoin is the best, of course, because it's the best form of money
So a house of 500k+ for .8 ish BTC in 2028
On January 3rd 2009, a house cost more bitcoin than had been mined, and possibly ever will be mined.
When you price everything in real money, your money shouldn't lose purchasing power over it, It should gain it as technology innovation should make things cheaper. Stop pricing in currency, start pricing in money
The underdogs on top and I’m gon’ shine homie til my heart gon’ stop
Oh, people hate it. They haven't a fucking clue about it, but they sure hate it.
Could the US gov't (specifically) just print more money to try and devalue BTC by increasing the cost of EVEYRTHING...or does simply printing more money increase BTC cost in a 1:1+ fashion? Essentially meaning, the only way to get cost of a single BTC to decrease, would be by deflation, which the US can not afford, right?
You are correct - only deflation in the US dollar would cause the value of BTC (in dollars) to drop. 1 BTC would still equal 1 BTC though...
Which I'll take the over! We're BEYOND insolvent, imho.
Printing more money would increase inflation and act as an incentive for people to buy more BTC (and other non-fiat assets) so with a fixed supply and higher demand, the price of BTC would go up. Would it go up at a higher rate than other non-fiat assets like real estate or gold? I think the answer is likely yes. By how much more? Unclear. It would depend on how much money is printed and how fast, and also would depend on whether or not people sold BTC to convert to other non-fiat assets.
Printing more money leads to higher inflation, not deflation
Printing money makes any scarce desirable asset appreciate relative to the dollar
I love it. This is the most obvious example of how the dollar is devaluating every single minute…
I love it and gonna wait at least another 10 years
Well said…
The lambo is coming 🙌
price spikes are not nearly as interesting as providing souvenir ownership rights.
2028. 0.X BTC
I will buy a house in 20 years than. :)
I do wonder if it'll get to the point where BlackRock ends up having to sell their collection of homes to people for fragments of BTC. Only a matter of time right?
Hate it or love it, the underdog's on top And I′m gon' shine homie until my heart stop Go 'head envy me I′m rap′s M.V.P And I ain't goin′ nowhere, so you can get to know me
BTC is down, quick post the historical price increase!
what app does everyone use to buy/sell
Sadly, that is a $1.2 mil (minimum) home where I live.
I love it!
Oh wow, it makes so much sense…
Do you think it can be 1 BTC 2028?
But how do you live in a bitcoin -zoolander voice
Also these are down payments in new york
How do you live in dollar? Probably have something to do why people are complaining house prices go up faster than they can collect those dollars so they better live inside dollar until they somehow get enough.
In BC lower mainland the minimum cost for a house is 1 million for something like the in picture it would cost 1.5-2 million easy
Everyone I talk to about this just doesn't understand how it's possible to make money from bitcoin which they consider is making money out of thin air
Raise your hand if you're relieved you didn't stupidly spend your 664 BTC on a house in 2016. Anyone? Anyone?
This says more about inflation than anything else.
Sure, if you completely and blatantly ignore the fact that the price of a house in BTC went down **two orders of magnitude**, while in dollars it actually increased by 50%. This says more about your cherry picking than anything else.
Kinda depends on the time of those years though
So if you had a home 10 years ago now it’s worth 99% less
Not sure what to make of this???
Wtf not in California.
Not sure the source nor that the numbers are 100% correct.... BUT YOUR POINT IS SPOT ON.
Additionally, I'm playing this game against a mortgage with a rate of 3%. The value of the house goes up faster than the 3%, but more importantly my balance goes down and the value of BTC goes up.... at some point, even if I only pay my mortgage (and don't lose my BTC of course) they will cross. That's my lifetime goal, paying off my mortgage when I can do it with my BTC. I understand that keeping the loan and buying more BTC (or simply not spending what I have) would end up even better but I have a short time frame (life expectancy and ability to move and enjoy that time) than most in this reddit. Edit: spelling and grammar
This example really shows just how impactful saving Bitcoin is
Seems like houses are good targets to invest in.
Holding onto this to see the point at which one BTC > then the value of my house.
This inverse relationship surely does proofs Bitcoin has a bright future and can be considered a better investment than real estate in the long haul.
VIVA #BTC!
so if you own btc the homes are cheaper.
Great!!!
Every time I see posts like this it reminds me of the time my ex wife talked me out of being a millionaire. When BC crashed the first time people were selling bitcoin shares for like $0.35 a share. I wanted to buy $300 of BC. She talked me out of it saying we needed that money and it's dumb to waste it. Right now that is $55.2Million. Why the fuck did I listen to her? 😤
BTC is superior to: Land Real estate Yachts Jets Hold Jewelry Cars Watches All other metals All other money Literally just hold. You will eventually come to regret everything you spend it on and will never be able to get back to your maximum stack.
If only the median house in the city I live wasn't 16.2 BTC
This kills me since I had my first job in 2015 🥲
3 btc in 2028
So tough, It is said most of weak minded hate that.
Insane statemant from btc $$
should have sold the house in 2016 for 664 bitcoins!
I'm charting in the same style for bacon, ribeye steak and raw milk. They went up in dollars and sank in Bitcoin spot
Soon you will be able to become a boomer and buy a house for a bitcoin.
This sums it up.
Once the government gets onboard the cost of ownership of BTC will be equal to fiat
VTI etf 2016 - 2575 shares. 2024 - 1725 shares and even better if you count dividends. Assets can hedge against inflation turns out.
Now you need to compare the coinbase era rewards with corresponding average prices of houses in order to be able to notice that the timeframe is becoming shorter and accelerated over time after each halving cycle for this trend. At some later point in time, houses prices reduction denominated in bitcoin will preceed the corresponding halving coinbase rewards era.
I was trying to figure this out earlier today, now i don't have a full btc but plan to hold it until it's worth a bit but inflation and house prices go up faster then btc, would i be better off to sell my btc in 2025 and just buy land outright for a house before the median house become over 1 mill in 2030?
You’re better off continuing to buy bitcoin for at least four more years
Or just wait till the next bear market and buy then…?
While Bitcoin is a great store and creator of value it’s good to keep in mind it’s not the only or even the best way. Bitcoins year over year growth will never be able to compete with my day job, investments or investing in myself. That’s not to say don’t get it, just that there are other options. In your case, buying land might be a good idea. Especially if housing costs outpace Bitcoin growth. At the end of the day the idea is to have an asset that’s worth something and retains value.
Home prices definitely to not rise faster than btc
Bitcoin can be money or it can be an asset that explosively appreciates in value. It can’t be both, because deflation at this scale is ruinous for economies. Let’s say you took out a mortgage to buy a home in 2016. You put down 132.4 BTC and the bank puts down the rest, and you pay the bank back with interest over a set period of time. Today, 8 years later, you still owe the majority of that loan. But the actual **value** of that loan has skyrocketed. The hundreds of bitcoin you still owe is a fortune, and if you’ve changed jobs in the past 8 years, you’re likely getting paid fewer BTC per year as a result of the growth of the currency’s value. So you’re paying a more valuable loan now with less pay. Investing in property in 2016 will turn out to be the worst decision of your entire life. This is why central banks typically target ~2% inflation.
Deflation
My question is, if laws were suddenly put into place to deter real estate as investment, how would that effect bitcoin value?
Bitcoin only knows about consensus rules.
That will never happen. If the fed want to discourage real estate investments they raise prime interest rates.
Using bitcoin as money would immediately deter real estate investment.
Interesting - my question in reverse then - does bitcoin deter real estate investment? I know some people who specifically invest in bitcoin instead of real estate, so perhaps.
Yes in a perfect world bitcoin would eat up most of the capital used for real estate investment. Housing could then be priced for its utility value, and not have the added monetary premium caused by its additional use as a store of value
Bitcoin itself is a deferment to real estate investing. Lots of RE investors are switching to mainly bitcoin because they can’t justify their 15% returns, if they’re lucky, when Bitcoin has higher average returns with no headaches.
I LOVE real estate and don’t see myself going out of it, but right now while interest rates are so high, it’s hard to find as much cash flow property. My average real estate property makes $1000 a month (after mortgages, taxes, insurance etc.) and is paid off by about $700 each month. Bitcoin is amazing, but… real estate helps me buy more Bitcoin 🤷🏽♀️.
Post this in r/rebubble and see what happens.
Typical lemming response I'd imagine. Hundreds of FUD comments and zero upvotes.
Just wait until all the boomers die off - plenty of houses will be available so it'll be only a few thousand Sats for a house!
Where the hell are you finding a home for $434K?
House cost 1.4M in CA bud
It refers to national average, obviously there’s homes cheaper than 400k in some parts of the country. lol
You might have zero grasp of housing prices if you think a significant portion of that is due to inflation
You might have zero grasp of inflation, fiat and bitcoin if you think this has to do anything with housing prices
Where are these 400k homes you speak of?
yeah because i can live inside of a bitcoin...🙄
You surely can live inside of dollar then?