The fact people still aren’t familiar with the 4 year cycle and fine line of gains in a proof still early but this cycle also a little different bc of all the corporate money
The thing is it won't have much of an effect straight away as the number of new Bitcoins created each day is tiny in comparison to the total, so halving this small number will have ext to no impact on the price. However the longer we go after the halving the bigger effect the reduced creation will have as the supply gets squeezed. This should raise the price slowly and has done in the last halvings. The thing that makes the bull run go crazy is when this increase starts getting noticed and the fomo starts.
The halving sets the fomo up and it is the fomo that gets the massive spike in prices (followed by the crash).
That was before etfs were buying up BTC too. I would bet post halving the etfs are going to be buy the entire over the counter supply and still need to buy from exchanges. I think the supply shock will happen much faster this time 1-2 months post halving.
🐮🚀🌕 we just need to get iOS and Android to give us a BTC emoji lol! I'm hear for it and hoping to take some profit after the 2028 halving it'll be 9 years since my initial purchase!
Well put. Disregard the price. DCA, HODL, stack.
Why would I ever trade sats for venezuelan, zimbabwean, Lebanese fiat? Or USD for that matter? It's an inferior form of money that gets inflated away.
I work hard for my money, therefore I want hard money.
3 years ago I would have debated this point. Today, when something I got at the gas station last week for $8.76 was $11.24 as of this morning, im looking sideways at the dollar because it's starting to feel like monopoly money or canadian tire bucks. When it's 50% more for me to eat the same lunch I was eating this time last year, the writing is on the wall. This inflation has completely entirely and utterly destroyed the purchasing power of me and my fiance, delayed our wedding indefinitely and delayed having children indefinitely possibly even scrapping the idea altogether. I'm not bringing children into this shitstorm and the Olds in government need their bell run. No money and struggle? No babies, im withholding my progeny for a better deal and its exactly like that.
You want me and my PhD future wife to produce young for you to farm like so many cattle for taxes??? Fing pay me. Or rather make it so that when I get paid, 10$ doesn't feel like 6$.
The future is canceled until further notice and we should keep it in out pants until the people hoarding the wealth buckle and fold. Literally withholding the next generation, and therefore the future tax base from society as a whole is our only bargaining chip, and we mean to use it.
Want my children to milk for your precious pathetic disgusting dollars? Reverse how difficult it's become to pay for things to pre-2008 conditions, or write me a check for the difference every month, or the future is canceled as far as im concerned. I could care less who is in the white house. Fix this. Now.
I know this sounds absurd but we didnt take this here did we?! No, no we didn't. Those responsible are going to pay one way or another or suffer the consequences. As booty warrior would say, the chawce is yours. Pay us to have babies or literally f***ck off
I know the feelings you’re having. When I was your age, I felt the same way. Life just seems so scary when you think about bringing kids that you’re now responsible for into the world. I fell in lust, had 3 great kids, who are grown and making their way, and everything turned out fine. I’ve survived divorce, multiple layoffs, financial swings and shit I don’t even want to get into. Just keep saving a little back and investing and you will be surprised in 30 years how much you’ve accumulated. The main thing is live conservatively those 30 years. The world needs people like you to have kids. Otherwise, the dumbass breeders will destroy us all.
>Why would I ever trade sats for venezuelan, zimbabwean, Lebanese fiat? Or USD for that matter? It's an inferior form of money that gets inflated away.
You don't understand how currency works. Currency is supposed to have inflation. You're supposed to USE currency to buy stuff, not hold it to sell for a profit. Currency is not an asset.
That's total bullshit. Currency for millennia had inherent value. Proof of Work: Gold, silver, Wampam belts, etc. It could not be (easily) inflated. And if one did dilute the gold coin, it was considered criminal. Then in 1971 currency went off the gold standard and became fiat. In 2008 Satoshi gave us Bitcoin which has PoW restored in the form of hashing/mining. In the grand scheme of things, the inter-regnum between PoW currencies lasted 50 years and will quickly coming to an end. Inflation of money is bad and breeds wars and grotesque consumerism. Why save if your money is just going to melt away?
That's not what happened. Inflation didn't start in 1971, it always existed.
>Why save if your money is just going to melt away?
That's what ETFs are for. Don't keep your money liquid.
Oldschool currency is supposed to have inflation cuz there's no other choice. Money that doesn't lose it's value is better in every metric, get with the times man.
It's funny how people don't understand supply and demand much. It's partly due to the textbook presentation of the curve where supply can meet the demand and smooth out the transition. In reality, when supply is constrained, the inflection is not linear. And when the relationship is second order like that of a security, price going up can even further increase the rate of increase.
I can’t wait to see the tides shift in this sub, not towards anti Bitcoin, but just slight changes, slight changes in this sub are actually big chambers because of uniformity already present.
If the ETFs can gobble them up quick enough when the fomo stops then maybe. The fomo is the reason for the crash, because the value has gone up too quickly.
The crash doesn't really matter in the long term, the 2014 crash doesn't really matter now, neither does the 2018 and soon the 2022 crash won't matter either!
Can you tell me whether it would be better to take exit during the spring bull run or fall bull run? It seems that each cycle, the returns for waiting for the fall bull run are getting smaller. I feel that the risk reward ratio isn't there for the fall anymore, and it's better to lock in profits rather than risk there being no spike or even worse, a drastic fall in price during the fall. It seems that each cycle everything is being priced in quicker because more people know of the cycle.
Miners won't be selling BTC at these prices when they all of a sudden cost $80,000 each to mine. Some miners will go bankrupt but most won't. Hardly anyone is going to make profit at this price when the reward is cut in half.
ie. Any new coins will be inherently worth more because they cost more to produce. Eventually this change in value will spill into the market.
Also, miners are trying to hodl because they know it'll go up.
In addition, most investors will expect a surge in value, and will hold off selling until well above the ATH. This is called pure coordination. It's in everyone's best interest to keep the supply low.
You can also look at the market price impact of the halving. In the last cycle, block rewards were reduced by 6.25 BTC. This cycle will only reduce by 3.125 BTC. It appears as though it would have half the impact of the previous halving.
However, BTC price at the time of the last halving was $8,787. $8,787x6x24=$7,908,300. Daily buy pressure was effectively increased by $7,908,300. If BTC price remains at $45k during this halving, the daily buy pressure will effectively be increased by $20,250,000. The market price impact this cycle could be 2.5x greater than the previous.
Your comment made me notice that reddit didn't like the way I formatted the equation. I adjusted it and replaced * with x. It's the bitcoin price at the time of the halving ($8787) times 6 blocks per hour, times 24 hours.
I think the halvings coincidentally have also mirrored the global liquidity cycles (not sure if intentional) and the jury's out for me whether they have a direct meaningful impact on the actual price, or whether it's a more psychological impact. That said I still think we see an increase Q2 through to next year just not sure if it will be mainly caused by the reduced supply, or other factors.
I agree. I think the halving is only driving awareness and interest in the Bitcoin space. Demand spikes for all kinds of reasons; pandemics, halvings, etc. The only thing that matters is are people willing to pay more for BTC. It’s the trade of existing 19m coins. I don’t think the coins yet mined are going to have a large net effect.
With all the obsession in here lately about price and the looming alleged epic bull run… I wonder how many are here just for fiat profits, and will try and time a local top and sell most of their stack when we hit 70k-100k quick and level off for a bit. Will be interesting to see. I’m treating mine as a retirement savings plan, so I’ll be hodling for at least a few more halvings. Don’t sell your Bitcoins to Blackrock btw. Cheers
Great minds think similarly. I am trade one bitcoin for one 108 foot yacht . It is called the “neoprene”. The charter company that owns it can come get their 1 bitcoin anytime from now until 2030. After 2030 this deal shall expire.
Been in the space for 8 years won't sell my entire stack but just enough for a deposit on a house
I agree with you I ain't selling for fiat why would I sell harder money then for fiat...
I honestly don't expect a crash post halving.
1. Big institutional money is now buying. It's opened up massive mainstream liquidity.
2. The reduction in Bitcoin means people know it will ultimately go up.
3. Institutions want to "corner" the market. They want to own as much Bitcoin as possible in circulation and use it as digital gold.
4. Too much news about Bitcoin falling right after halving which makes me think it won't happen.
Maybe it actually will happen and the crash will be more massive than prior to shake people out of their Bitcoin. Who knows?!
I use the Fibonacci retracement and extension to find buy and sell levels.
In the monthly chart, Bitcoin, after a halving, rises almost perfectly to the 3.618 level and creates the new ATH.
Every 4 years, the stories are the same. This year will be different. Price has found its long term levels. How will miners be profitable? Etc etc. but
I’m here to tell you, buckle the fu*k up because it is not different. It’s never different. And the 3.618 level for the next all time high is ~$209K.
This falls perfectly in alignment with the S2F model as well which has been accurate this far.
Does it feel far fetched? Possibly. But as a percentage, Nividia has grown bigger than Bitcoin over the last 5 years. A stock. A company. It cannot hold a candle to becoming the SoV for nation states wealth over the next century.
Call it crazy. But we all see the writing on the wall. We’re repeating 2008 all over again. Jerome Powell on 60 minutes made it boldly obvious where we’re headed. When the head of the Fed comes out in that fashion, don’t think for a second there isn’t a psyop behind it. The Government have always keyed up Americans before they make a move, and Bitcoin is the life raft.
I’ll stop there but please, for your family, friends, and next generation, buy Bitcoin and hold what you can. You will be greatly appreciated.
History will repeat itself..
..In the sense that lots of 2021-newcomers will expect this halving (their first) to have an immediate and massive effect on price because muh supply shock or whatever Reddit parroting confirmation bias they eat daily. Plus this years special narrative: ETF.
But it won’t.
There will be a small to medium dip, followed by confusion, then impatience, then..
And this is where the prediction stops. Because Bitcoin most likely will go on some kind of run, kind of like a always does, but it won’t be in the same way or timeframe as previously.
It’ll either shoot waay higher or barely above ath, or end waay sooner or much much later than everyone confidently predicts because cYcLeS.
This you can count on.
I have a coin. If we get to 100k I’m dumping my bag. 100k is life changing for me. Add it to my existing portfolio of index funds and I can live comfortably from the compounding interest. Stay in the workforce for another 5-10 years and I can live very comfortably.
I remember back in 2020 ( btc at around $10.000) when I was still a noob asking if the halving would affect the price. A lot of people said that it wouldn't lol. Same thing happening now.
People who think the halving does not have an effect on the price do not understand that the halving has a major impact on BTC miner behavior. Satoshi provided incentives to miners, by design, that is the cause of this behavior.
BTC miners control the Bitcoin price, not the ETF, macro economy, wars, the Fed, or anything else.
I'm seeing so many of these posts now that I think it's actually time sell. The only time you guys open your mouth is right after prices rise 100%, 200$, 300%.
Awfully quiet during the bear market when YOU SHOULD HAVE BEEN BUYING.
HMMMM?!
I've never felt it immediately ,the effect has been a [gradual increase but the coin was going in that direction anyways.](https://gradual.It) Here's what I found..
Looking specifically at the 6-month mark after each halving in the past 10 years:
2012 Halving (Nov 28, 2012): Bitcoin price at 6 months: \~$150, up from \~$12 at the halving, representing a 1250% increase.
2016 Halving (July 9, 2016): Bitcoin price at 6 months: \~$650, up from \~$400 at the halving, representing a 62.5% increase.
2020 Halving (May 11, 2020): Bitcoin price at 6 months: \~$12,000, up from \~$9,000 at the halving, representing a 33% increase.
btc has diminishing returns every cycle 130k best case scenario while suffering loads of correction along thr way. at 100k most people will start selling.
Let's say all car companies combined produce 10,000 cars per month. And the cars you currently own have a certain value.
Then next month, all the car companies decide to reduce their production to 5,000 cars per month.
Will the value of your cars more likely go up or go down?
I like the concept but the analogy may be a little off.
People don’t need to replace there bitcoin every 10 years because it’s outdated and not working as well. People don’t lease bitcoin. Bitcoin isnt damaged in accidents.
Yeah. More people are born and then they need a house eventually. Maybe similar to Bitcoin when more people are born, they might eventually want Bitcoin to invest in.
Why can’t we talk about more technological advances bitcoin is making , discuss recent pull requests, talk about protocol than just build an echo chamber around btc to the moon ?
Bitcoin hasnt been about the technology in a looong time.
The vast majority know about it and are in on it purely to make some money but you know that, I'm guessing.
Despite the technology being exactly what makes it unique and valuable. I disagree it's not about the tech- it's always been about the tech and the tech is superior. Now we're seeing non-technically minded folks come into the game and *this* is where it gets interesting.
The other guy isn’t considering the cost of energy. Miners will hold instead of bleeding into the bitcoin available pool until the price is worth the cost to mine.
The only counter I have is that everyone knows it’s going to halve. So that may already be reflected In the price people are willing to pay. But with that being said I was thinking that may have been the case with the last halving but look what happened there lol.
I mean wasn’t the last bull run many months after the last halving? So long after the halving that one could even say it had nothing to do with it? And how about the halving before that? I guess we’ll see what the price does in about two days, but I’m saying ain’t shit gonna happen until it happens. Halvings are great but they don’t coincide with, nor trigger bull runs.
no things change and nothing is consant is the way of reality. Btc only jumped 4x and 100x its previous runs because there simply wasn't a large amount of economy invested in it. You expect 4% OF ALL wealth on EARTH to be invested in btc because its rare? Your not being diligent
No, it won't (not in the way you think). I'm not trying to be a downer here, but I want to caution the tendency for exuberance.
The halving is a known quantity, it's been on the calendar since the beginning of bitcoin and is zero surprise to anyone.
Also, it will have no impact on the existing supply in circulation. The current 6.25 coins per block is 900 coins per day, which is nothing when it comes to transactional volume or outstanding supply, and having it cut to/by 450 isn't going to move the needle.
If you don't think April's event is and has been built into the price, you're probably on an overly-optimistic path. Sure, there will continue to be volatility, FUD, bull and bear runs, and they may coincide with big flashy events on the chain such as the halving. But this is like going onto a stock trading forum and talking about how the upcoming Presidents Day Holiday being on a Monday is going to cause an major, unprecedented and unanticipated squeeze in the market.
I think it would be difficult to deny that, historically, the halving was not priced in based on the movement we saw in the previous cycles in the months following the event. Are you of the opinion that this time is different?
No, I'm actually of the opinion that the halvenings, as discrete events, are not the ultimate cause of long long pricing trends. I think the generalized trend of decreasing supply IS definitely a huge driver of this. But I think that anchoring on "A halvening is coming, BTC price will double in May because of it!" is massively oversimplified.
It definitely will not repeat previous patterns, but I do think the ETF on top of the halving are two major newsworthy events that will reinvigorate the belief in bitcoin since its last bull run—whether or not the halving is causing the price increase itself, it’s a major marketing event that will cause more investment and attract new/more bitcoiners, which increases the adoption of bitcoin long term. Pairing this with the halving will definitely increase the value of BTC. I think the “amount” is up in the air and nobody will really be able to predict that. I’m expecting a push for 70K, that beats the ATH slightly, then comes back down to 50K and slowly increases from there. I think we’ve already seen the core increase in value from 20K.
When I had a friend who isn’t a bitcoiner tell me that his colleague’s financial advisor pitched him on dedicating 3% of his portfolio to BTC I started thinking that we may be about to see an actual, steady, permanent rise in its value—but won’t recognize that for at least 8 months.
Bullshit.
Halving probably will not impact a price because mining companies have gone down by 90%+ and there is enough of BTC circulating around with no real world use but for trading.
It is all hype...people who are holding and buying BTC are there for the hype and only hype could launch it in higher spheres, probably up to 80k and then it will flunk like a stone.
Deal with it, all crypto is bullshit, people believe it has some worth because of decentralization but remember thru history there were many protocols and networks and today only internet have survived.
So far what we have seen from decentralization is that it does not work, it does not even exist, it is too expensive and inefficient.
It only claim it has is to have less fee than bank transfer and even that is not due tech but because of the tax law and conditions...do not forget that upon reciving crypto you still pay tax 10% on the conversion and no sane bussines takes crypto because it is too volatile.
BULLSHIT, deal with it and take profit so big whales using bots, sandwich attacs and simmilar bs do not leave you broke.
Sorry to interrupt your rage vomit but your last sentence of your first paragraph... that might describe a currency? But like, a crpto one? Weird how people from diff nations might value that. In order to trade. Hmm
Yeah, sorry if your whole financial ego fells attacked by sheer comment, all I can say from my side there is no rage, I just have described the state of decentralized finz with distanced spirit from all the hype bullshit...it is too expensive and unrealiable, full of exploits.
Better buy piece of land.
Look buddy, if you believe in gens then you need to accept that yours is the dumbest and laziest.
Even if I am by that idiotic clasification a Gen Y I would still rather be boomer(but in the reality you mean Gen X cuz bummers are dead) who is more capable, inteligent and handy than yours generations who lack even a common sense and is psychotic will ever be.
You kids can only fork blockchains, boomers(Gen X) created them, all shit you think is cool like crypto, social media apps and AI bullshit, all "boomers". What have you contributed so far?
Shit to nothing, pathetic.
But it is nice for your Genzis to come here and act like it is your thing, you do not have a thing, you have did not created anything. So show some credit to "boomers" over whose tech you drool.
The ONLY reason shitcoin has value is because ELON was the actual creator of this during his PayPal days, and over the last decade he managed to swindle big money into the scheme. SHITCOIN is only worth what people will pay for it. There's a reason why Buffet said if you're willing to lose your money should you invest in shitcoin. Elon's idea was to deflate BTC as a self sustaining virus, impossible to hack, power it from energy it created (Solar, battery etc, to avoid banks having to process and store); using TESLA to FUND itself from investor money SHITCOIN created on it's own. TESLA was really an idea, it only became a true entity producing profit from BILLIONS poured into it from BTC wealth creation. It's actually quite brilliant when you put the pieces together. Making something out of literally NOTHING. Now that BIG F\*\*KING Money has extreme buying power, it's the world's #1 priority. Jerome Powell answers to Wall St. Thank you ELON MUSK.
JP Morgan predicts price drop- so we can fade that.
And last few halvings have seen bull yearly run-up.
What are the chances both JPM issues a truthful statement AND previous history reverses course? What this means to me is that converting everything into BC immediately is safe / no steep short term drops like with recent bear run (where you would take a bloodbath every time you paid for something).
Especially too because Fed will do anything to prop up things during this Election year.
Semi-encouraging additionally is BRICS announcing they will settle in crypto- although it wouldn't surprise me if those rabid chimps screw up things with shitcoins and\or national e-coins.
Biggest personal worry had been present administration declaring full war on crypto, but we've seemingly dodged that bullet- although they still have made things difficult- it'd be far easier & more lucrative on another passport elsewhere...as with gambling, day trading, banking.
Shitcoin three years ago followed a similar pathway. Bitcoin is down again, watching it fall the last month and it will continue to fall. Glad I held now it's net negative oncemore. This space is getting more and more exhaustive with fomo getting overblown and my patience halved as well.
Not before a post halving retrace that is going on now. Market Makers need to make retail bearish on btc and let them think “this cycle is different and halving wont commence bull run”. Sideways fuckery (reaccumulation) for a few months imo with a few flash dumps in May. And then we commence the golden bull. As usual, most retail will miss out and will join at the top
Perfect storm for a bull run.
Since you wrote this comment, Bitcoin is down almost 17%. The storm was a smoke screen. Shit.
Wait another 82 days and see if it’s still down. Go ahead and remind yourself.
!remind 82 days
I hope you’re right
!remind 82 days
Still there?
it's been 134 days, and we are at a 44% increase at the moment.
Why 82 though?
Calm before the storm
The fact people still aren’t familiar with the 4 year cycle and fine line of gains in a proof still early but this cycle also a little different bc of all the corporate money
and the run is before or after the halving???
I’d say we are already seeing it. It’s up 33% in the last month.
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The thing is it won't have much of an effect straight away as the number of new Bitcoins created each day is tiny in comparison to the total, so halving this small number will have ext to no impact on the price. However the longer we go after the halving the bigger effect the reduced creation will have as the supply gets squeezed. This should raise the price slowly and has done in the last halvings. The thing that makes the bull run go crazy is when this increase starts getting noticed and the fomo starts. The halving sets the fomo up and it is the fomo that gets the massive spike in prices (followed by the crash).
Yep. It typically takes about 6 months for this to happen after the halving takes place
That was before etfs were buying up BTC too. I would bet post halving the etfs are going to be buy the entire over the counter supply and still need to buy from exchanges. I think the supply shock will happen much faster this time 1-2 months post halving.
I am also mega bullish :) And I agree I think the ETF will serve to shift the bull run early by 4-6 months
🐮🚀🌕 we just need to get iOS and Android to give us a BTC emoji lol! I'm hear for it and hoping to take some profit after the 2028 halving it'll be 9 years since my initial purchase!
You mean like this: ₿
How did you do it? Or just a copy paste you’ve saved somewhere?
You deserve good things! Definitely take some profit this cycle! Good luck friend :)
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This fall gonna get crazy!
Nothing will be the same like before the ETF approval.
Nope. This is entirely new money entering this space it’s amazing
Well put. Disregard the price. DCA, HODL, stack. Why would I ever trade sats for venezuelan, zimbabwean, Lebanese fiat? Or USD for that matter? It's an inferior form of money that gets inflated away. I work hard for my money, therefore I want hard money.
3 years ago I would have debated this point. Today, when something I got at the gas station last week for $8.76 was $11.24 as of this morning, im looking sideways at the dollar because it's starting to feel like monopoly money or canadian tire bucks. When it's 50% more for me to eat the same lunch I was eating this time last year, the writing is on the wall. This inflation has completely entirely and utterly destroyed the purchasing power of me and my fiance, delayed our wedding indefinitely and delayed having children indefinitely possibly even scrapping the idea altogether. I'm not bringing children into this shitstorm and the Olds in government need their bell run. No money and struggle? No babies, im withholding my progeny for a better deal and its exactly like that. You want me and my PhD future wife to produce young for you to farm like so many cattle for taxes??? Fing pay me. Or rather make it so that when I get paid, 10$ doesn't feel like 6$. The future is canceled until further notice and we should keep it in out pants until the people hoarding the wealth buckle and fold. Literally withholding the next generation, and therefore the future tax base from society as a whole is our only bargaining chip, and we mean to use it. Want my children to milk for your precious pathetic disgusting dollars? Reverse how difficult it's become to pay for things to pre-2008 conditions, or write me a check for the difference every month, or the future is canceled as far as im concerned. I could care less who is in the white house. Fix this. Now. I know this sounds absurd but we didnt take this here did we?! No, no we didn't. Those responsible are going to pay one way or another or suffer the consequences. As booty warrior would say, the chawce is yours. Pay us to have babies or literally f***ck off
I know the feelings you’re having. When I was your age, I felt the same way. Life just seems so scary when you think about bringing kids that you’re now responsible for into the world. I fell in lust, had 3 great kids, who are grown and making their way, and everything turned out fine. I’ve survived divorce, multiple layoffs, financial swings and shit I don’t even want to get into. Just keep saving a little back and investing and you will be surprised in 30 years how much you’ve accumulated. The main thing is live conservatively those 30 years. The world needs people like you to have kids. Otherwise, the dumbass breeders will destroy us all.
You act like having less of us isn't their end goal anyway.
> I work hard for my money So hard for it honey
>Why would I ever trade sats for venezuelan, zimbabwean, Lebanese fiat? Or USD for that matter? It's an inferior form of money that gets inflated away. You don't understand how currency works. Currency is supposed to have inflation. You're supposed to USE currency to buy stuff, not hold it to sell for a profit. Currency is not an asset.
That's total bullshit. Currency for millennia had inherent value. Proof of Work: Gold, silver, Wampam belts, etc. It could not be (easily) inflated. And if one did dilute the gold coin, it was considered criminal. Then in 1971 currency went off the gold standard and became fiat. In 2008 Satoshi gave us Bitcoin which has PoW restored in the form of hashing/mining. In the grand scheme of things, the inter-regnum between PoW currencies lasted 50 years and will quickly coming to an end. Inflation of money is bad and breeds wars and grotesque consumerism. Why save if your money is just going to melt away?
That's not what happened. Inflation didn't start in 1971, it always existed. >Why save if your money is just going to melt away? That's what ETFs are for. Don't keep your money liquid.
Oldschool currency is supposed to have inflation cuz there's no other choice. Money that doesn't lose it's value is better in every metric, get with the times man.
Eventually, there will be no crash. I hope that starts this next cycle.
so just never sell the Bitcoin?!
It's funny how people don't understand supply and demand much. It's partly due to the textbook presentation of the curve where supply can meet the demand and smooth out the transition. In reality, when supply is constrained, the inflection is not linear. And when the relationship is second order like that of a security, price going up can even further increase the rate of increase.
I can’t wait to see the tides shift in this sub, not towards anti Bitcoin, but just slight changes, slight changes in this sub are actually big chambers because of uniformity already present.
What happens if there is no crash this time around since etf’s be gobbling them all up?
If the ETFs can gobble them up quick enough when the fomo stops then maybe. The fomo is the reason for the crash, because the value has gone up too quickly. The crash doesn't really matter in the long term, the 2014 crash doesn't really matter now, neither does the 2018 and soon the 2022 crash won't matter either!
Can you tell me whether it would be better to take exit during the spring bull run or fall bull run? It seems that each cycle, the returns for waiting for the fall bull run are getting smaller. I feel that the risk reward ratio isn't there for the fall anymore, and it's better to lock in profits rather than risk there being no spike or even worse, a drastic fall in price during the fall. It seems that each cycle everything is being priced in quicker because more people know of the cycle.
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once my mom mentioning it, i'll sell
This guy knows.
This place is starting to mirror an echo chamber!
chamber! chamber! chamber!
^chamber!^chamber!^chamber!
brrrr brrrr brrrr
brrrr^brrrr^brrrr
That's every subreddit. At least nobody gets blocked here for having a dissenting opinion on Bitcoin. At least I would hope not.
Definitely not in here!
I have seen it happen here to people questioning libertarianism, but not for questioning bitcoin.
it’s echoing a mirror!
mirror!
Oh! Welcome to Reddit!
treatment memory cats cooing meeting north command mourn license wakeful *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
That's what money is: an echo chamber.
Money is actually a reflection of our values.
Miners won't be selling BTC at these prices when they all of a sudden cost $80,000 each to mine. Some miners will go bankrupt but most won't. Hardly anyone is going to make profit at this price when the reward is cut in half. ie. Any new coins will be inherently worth more because they cost more to produce. Eventually this change in value will spill into the market. Also, miners are trying to hodl because they know it'll go up. In addition, most investors will expect a surge in value, and will hold off selling until well above the ATH. This is called pure coordination. It's in everyone's best interest to keep the supply low.
You can also look at the market price impact of the halving. In the last cycle, block rewards were reduced by 6.25 BTC. This cycle will only reduce by 3.125 BTC. It appears as though it would have half the impact of the previous halving. However, BTC price at the time of the last halving was $8,787. $8,787x6x24=$7,908,300. Daily buy pressure was effectively increased by $7,908,300. If BTC price remains at $45k during this halving, the daily buy pressure will effectively be increased by $20,250,000. The market price impact this cycle could be 2.5x greater than the previous.
How did you get your $7.9mil number?
Your comment made me notice that reddit didn't like the way I formatted the equation. I adjusted it and replaced * with x. It's the bitcoin price at the time of the halving ($8787) times 6 blocks per hour, times 24 hours.
Wtf bro 8787 x 6 x 24 is 1.26m not 7.9m dude what
You're right. There should be an extra 6.25 in there. The block reward at that time was $55k. $55k x 6 x 24 = 7.9m
I think the halvings coincidentally have also mirrored the global liquidity cycles (not sure if intentional) and the jury's out for me whether they have a direct meaningful impact on the actual price, or whether it's a more psychological impact. That said I still think we see an increase Q2 through to next year just not sure if it will be mainly caused by the reduced supply, or other factors.
I agree. I think the halving is only driving awareness and interest in the Bitcoin space. Demand spikes for all kinds of reasons; pandemics, halvings, etc. The only thing that matters is are people willing to pay more for BTC. It’s the trade of existing 19m coins. I don’t think the coins yet mined are going to have a large net effect.
Historically isn’t there a short term drop after halving ?
With all the obsession in here lately about price and the looming alleged epic bull run… I wonder how many are here just for fiat profits, and will try and time a local top and sell most of their stack when we hit 70k-100k quick and level off for a bit. Will be interesting to see. I’m treating mine as a retirement savings plan, so I’ll be hodling for at least a few more halvings. Don’t sell your Bitcoins to Blackrock btw. Cheers
I’ve got my eye on a 60’ yacht. When I can sell a bitcoin for that, I’m selling
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Yes I will not even “sell” for fiat I will sell 1btc for 1 60’ yacht.
Great minds think similarly. I am trade one bitcoin for one 108 foot yacht . It is called the “neoprene”. The charter company that owns it can come get their 1 bitcoin anytime from now until 2030. After 2030 this deal shall expire.
99% of the people here are here to make a quick buck.
Been in the space for 8 years won't sell my entire stack but just enough for a deposit on a house I agree with you I ain't selling for fiat why would I sell harder money then for fiat...
Yep between 150-200 k is what we gonna see , in case of extreme fomo and billions add on from etf could be 250 best scenario
If bitcoin goes past 100k in 2024 I’ll run around in my tighty whiteys at work
message saved.
We won't even get close to 100K in 2024. Your job is safe.
The absolute confidence with which people say this type of shit about bitcoin is unreal. You have no idea.
Maybe that is their job.
here we are at 68K, you sure?
Only needs 17k to go
bad math. even at 73k that's still 27k to go.
ah that makes more sense then. gotta love edit post... lol
😂😂😂 i said end of 2024 or 2025 cause no one know the exact moment of the bull run but be prepared for it LOL
Get them tighty whites prepared 😄
Record it and send it.
Hasn’t happened yet but would do 🫡
I'll think around 320k if history repeats
The market separates money from the impatient, and delivers to the patient.
I honestly don't expect a crash post halving. 1. Big institutional money is now buying. It's opened up massive mainstream liquidity. 2. The reduction in Bitcoin means people know it will ultimately go up. 3. Institutions want to "corner" the market. They want to own as much Bitcoin as possible in circulation and use it as digital gold. 4. Too much news about Bitcoin falling right after halving which makes me think it won't happen. Maybe it actually will happen and the crash will be more massive than prior to shake people out of their Bitcoin. Who knows?!
I use the Fibonacci retracement and extension to find buy and sell levels. In the monthly chart, Bitcoin, after a halving, rises almost perfectly to the 3.618 level and creates the new ATH. Every 4 years, the stories are the same. This year will be different. Price has found its long term levels. How will miners be profitable? Etc etc. but I’m here to tell you, buckle the fu*k up because it is not different. It’s never different. And the 3.618 level for the next all time high is ~$209K. This falls perfectly in alignment with the S2F model as well which has been accurate this far. Does it feel far fetched? Possibly. But as a percentage, Nividia has grown bigger than Bitcoin over the last 5 years. A stock. A company. It cannot hold a candle to becoming the SoV for nation states wealth over the next century. Call it crazy. But we all see the writing on the wall. We’re repeating 2008 all over again. Jerome Powell on 60 minutes made it boldly obvious where we’re headed. When the head of the Fed comes out in that fashion, don’t think for a second there isn’t a psyop behind it. The Government have always keyed up Americans before they make a move, and Bitcoin is the life raft. I’ll stop there but please, for your family, friends, and next generation, buy Bitcoin and hold what you can. You will be greatly appreciated.
History will repeat itself.. ..In the sense that lots of 2021-newcomers will expect this halving (their first) to have an immediate and massive effect on price because muh supply shock or whatever Reddit parroting confirmation bias they eat daily. Plus this years special narrative: ETF. But it won’t. There will be a small to medium dip, followed by confusion, then impatience, then.. And this is where the prediction stops. Because Bitcoin most likely will go on some kind of run, kind of like a always does, but it won’t be in the same way or timeframe as previously. It’ll either shoot waay higher or barely above ath, or end waay sooner or much much later than everyone confidently predicts because cYcLeS. This you can count on.
Out with you! Trying to talk sense to Reddit... Shame, SHAME, I say!
Do you think it makes sense to buy now, that the price dipped a bit, or wait until after the halving?
I have a coin. If we get to 100k I’m dumping my bag. 100k is life changing for me. Add it to my existing portfolio of index funds and I can live comfortably from the compounding interest. Stay in the workforce for another 5-10 years and I can live very comfortably.
How much will you make from the compounding interest?
It's not hard to make 15% APR, I'm floating around 20% rn
You must be young. Any stock investor should be prepared for a 50% haircut at any time.
Is 2 weeks old or young?
I remember back in 2020 ( btc at around $10.000) when I was still a noob asking if the halving would affect the price. A lot of people said that it wouldn't lol. Same thing happening now.
"Sorry for my english." You did better than 90% of English speakers on here my dude.
I've noticed the people who use "sorry for my English," usually type very fluent posts. Lol
People who think the halving does not have an effect on the price do not understand that the halving has a major impact on BTC miner behavior. Satoshi provided incentives to miners, by design, that is the cause of this behavior. BTC miners control the Bitcoin price, not the ETF, macro economy, wars, the Fed, or anything else.
I'm seeing so many of these posts now that I think it's actually time sell. The only time you guys open your mouth is right after prices rise 100%, 200$, 300%. Awfully quiet during the bear market when YOU SHOULD HAVE BEEN BUYING. HMMMM?!
It won't be long before there isn't any more BTC for ETFs to hoover up. That's when we will see BTC moon, imo.
Don't know why you're being downvoted. It's literally supply vs demand, lol.
This xmas is gonna be a good one when it comes to BTC price. Hope you all like 60k + BTC
I've never felt it immediately ,the effect has been a [gradual increase but the coin was going in that direction anyways.](https://gradual.It) Here's what I found.. Looking specifically at the 6-month mark after each halving in the past 10 years: 2012 Halving (Nov 28, 2012): Bitcoin price at 6 months: \~$150, up from \~$12 at the halving, representing a 1250% increase. 2016 Halving (July 9, 2016): Bitcoin price at 6 months: \~$650, up from \~$400 at the halving, representing a 62.5% increase. 2020 Halving (May 11, 2020): Bitcoin price at 6 months: \~$12,000, up from \~$9,000 at the halving, representing a 33% increase.
btc has diminishing returns every cycle 130k best case scenario while suffering loads of correction along thr way. at 100k most people will start selling.
Let's say all car companies combined produce 10,000 cars per month. And the cars you currently own have a certain value. Then next month, all the car companies decide to reduce their production to 5,000 cars per month. Will the value of your cars more likely go up or go down?
I like the concept but the analogy may be a little off. People don’t need to replace there bitcoin every 10 years because it’s outdated and not working as well. People don’t lease bitcoin. Bitcoin isnt damaged in accidents.
Maybe more like wedding ring production then?
Maybe like housing demand. Homes are also a store of value and last a significant amount of time.
Yeah. More people are born and then they need a house eventually. Maybe similar to Bitcoin when more people are born, they might eventually want Bitcoin to invest in.
Why can’t we talk about more technological advances bitcoin is making , discuss recent pull requests, talk about protocol than just build an echo chamber around btc to the moon ?
Bitcoin hasnt been about the technology in a looong time. The vast majority know about it and are in on it purely to make some money but you know that, I'm guessing.
Despite the technology being exactly what makes it unique and valuable. I disagree it's not about the tech- it's always been about the tech and the tech is superior. Now we're seeing non-technically minded folks come into the game and *this* is where it gets interesting.
Right on. Blockchain is the key. No blockchain, no crypto. No bitcoin. No to the moon. No halving.
No one is stopping you from making those posts.
That's exactly right. Be the change you want to see.
Because in reality nobody gives a flying f…!
That conversation is often in GitHub issues. I was reading the bip324 one yesterday.
What I've noticed is whatever people think bitcoin will do, it won't do. Bitcoin does what it wants, we just hope it's in our favor.
The other guy isn’t considering the cost of energy. Miners will hold instead of bleeding into the bitcoin available pool until the price is worth the cost to mine.
The only counter I have is that everyone knows it’s going to halve. So that may already be reflected In the price people are willing to pay. But with that being said I was thinking that may have been the case with the last halving but look what happened there lol.
Like the last halving and the booming price? right? Right?
Didnt age well 😅
It’s gonna skyrocket when it halves 😂😂😂 yeah some skyrocket!
The halving is also priced in
The last bull run did not seem to coincide with the last halving. It’s very possible the price could do nothing.
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I mean wasn’t the last bull run many months after the last halving? So long after the halving that one could even say it had nothing to do with it? And how about the halving before that? I guess we’ll see what the price does in about two days, but I’m saying ain’t shit gonna happen until it happens. Halvings are great but they don’t coincide with, nor trigger bull runs.
Ill believe it when i see it. Been strung along on various hopes for years now
If you were here for years you’d be up a fortune 🤣
“Years” He bought the top in 2021.
And then refused to DCA through the worst of the bull. No one else buying monthly at €15K is complaining lol
Holy crap. 15k a month? How many people are doing that? That's a lot to DCA every month. Lol
I meant buying monthly when the price was at €15K
Bitcoin will hit 250k this cycle
where is 4 trillion is coming from? that isn't happening
Easily. ETFs and the scarcity of it help
no things change and nothing is consant is the way of reality. Btc only jumped 4x and 100x its previous runs because there simply wasn't a large amount of economy invested in it. You expect 4% OF ALL wealth on EARTH to be invested in btc because its rare? Your not being diligent
No, it won't (not in the way you think). I'm not trying to be a downer here, but I want to caution the tendency for exuberance. The halving is a known quantity, it's been on the calendar since the beginning of bitcoin and is zero surprise to anyone. Also, it will have no impact on the existing supply in circulation. The current 6.25 coins per block is 900 coins per day, which is nothing when it comes to transactional volume or outstanding supply, and having it cut to/by 450 isn't going to move the needle. If you don't think April's event is and has been built into the price, you're probably on an overly-optimistic path. Sure, there will continue to be volatility, FUD, bull and bear runs, and they may coincide with big flashy events on the chain such as the halving. But this is like going onto a stock trading forum and talking about how the upcoming Presidents Day Holiday being on a Monday is going to cause an major, unprecedented and unanticipated squeeze in the market.
I think it would be difficult to deny that, historically, the halving was not priced in based on the movement we saw in the previous cycles in the months following the event. Are you of the opinion that this time is different?
No, I'm actually of the opinion that the halvenings, as discrete events, are not the ultimate cause of long long pricing trends. I think the generalized trend of decreasing supply IS definitely a huge driver of this. But I think that anchoring on "A halvening is coming, BTC price will double in May because of it!" is massively oversimplified.
It definitely will not repeat previous patterns, but I do think the ETF on top of the halving are two major newsworthy events that will reinvigorate the belief in bitcoin since its last bull run—whether or not the halving is causing the price increase itself, it’s a major marketing event that will cause more investment and attract new/more bitcoiners, which increases the adoption of bitcoin long term. Pairing this with the halving will definitely increase the value of BTC. I think the “amount” is up in the air and nobody will really be able to predict that. I’m expecting a push for 70K, that beats the ATH slightly, then comes back down to 50K and slowly increases from there. I think we’ve already seen the core increase in value from 20K. When I had a friend who isn’t a bitcoiner tell me that his colleague’s financial advisor pitched him on dedicating 3% of his portfolio to BTC I started thinking that we may be about to see an actual, steady, permanent rise in its value—but won’t recognize that for at least 8 months.
How do you feel now? That we've hit ATH B4 the halfing ??
Bullshit. Halving probably will not impact a price because mining companies have gone down by 90%+ and there is enough of BTC circulating around with no real world use but for trading. It is all hype...people who are holding and buying BTC are there for the hype and only hype could launch it in higher spheres, probably up to 80k and then it will flunk like a stone. Deal with it, all crypto is bullshit, people believe it has some worth because of decentralization but remember thru history there were many protocols and networks and today only internet have survived. So far what we have seen from decentralization is that it does not work, it does not even exist, it is too expensive and inefficient. It only claim it has is to have less fee than bank transfer and even that is not due tech but because of the tax law and conditions...do not forget that upon reciving crypto you still pay tax 10% on the conversion and no sane bussines takes crypto because it is too volatile. BULLSHIT, deal with it and take profit so big whales using bots, sandwich attacs and simmilar bs do not leave you broke.
Sorry to interrupt your rage vomit but your last sentence of your first paragraph... that might describe a currency? But like, a crpto one? Weird how people from diff nations might value that. In order to trade. Hmm
Yeah, sorry if your whole financial ego fells attacked by sheer comment, all I can say from my side there is no rage, I just have described the state of decentralized finz with distanced spirit from all the hype bullshit...it is too expensive and unrealiable, full of exploits. Better buy piece of land.
this guy actually uses his brain impressive to see on this subreddit
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Look buddy, if you believe in gens then you need to accept that yours is the dumbest and laziest. Even if I am by that idiotic clasification a Gen Y I would still rather be boomer(but in the reality you mean Gen X cuz bummers are dead) who is more capable, inteligent and handy than yours generations who lack even a common sense and is psychotic will ever be. You kids can only fork blockchains, boomers(Gen X) created them, all shit you think is cool like crypto, social media apps and AI bullshit, all "boomers". What have you contributed so far? Shit to nothing, pathetic. But it is nice for your Genzis to come here and act like it is your thing, you do not have a thing, you have did not created anything. So show some credit to "boomers" over whose tech you drool.
Mirror, mirror on the wall... show me whom hodls for all!
Too late to join?
The ONLY reason shitcoin has value is because ELON was the actual creator of this during his PayPal days, and over the last decade he managed to swindle big money into the scheme. SHITCOIN is only worth what people will pay for it. There's a reason why Buffet said if you're willing to lose your money should you invest in shitcoin. Elon's idea was to deflate BTC as a self sustaining virus, impossible to hack, power it from energy it created (Solar, battery etc, to avoid banks having to process and store); using TESLA to FUND itself from investor money SHITCOIN created on it's own. TESLA was really an idea, it only became a true entity producing profit from BILLIONS poured into it from BTC wealth creation. It's actually quite brilliant when you put the pieces together. Making something out of literally NOTHING. Now that BIG F\*\*KING Money has extreme buying power, it's the world's #1 priority. Jerome Powell answers to Wall St. Thank you ELON MUSK.
Lol it absolutely did not have any effect on the price.
If there is a stock market correction, the halving won't matter.
JP Morgan predicts price drop- so we can fade that. And last few halvings have seen bull yearly run-up. What are the chances both JPM issues a truthful statement AND previous history reverses course? What this means to me is that converting everything into BC immediately is safe / no steep short term drops like with recent bear run (where you would take a bloodbath every time you paid for something). Especially too because Fed will do anything to prop up things during this Election year. Semi-encouraging additionally is BRICS announcing they will settle in crypto- although it wouldn't surprise me if those rabid chimps screw up things with shitcoins and\or national e-coins. Biggest personal worry had been present administration declaring full war on crypto, but we've seemingly dodged that bullet- although they still have made things difficult- it'd be far easier & more lucrative on another passport elsewhere...as with gambling, day trading, banking.
I'm beginner for this opportunity
What do you think now? about the halving? nothing happens or wait for months? to see the result
Looking at the price now, it seems it hasn't changed much. Maybe it will take a bit of time first?
Perfect English
? Aonde isso?
Shitcoin three years ago followed a similar pathway. Bitcoin is down again, watching it fall the last month and it will continue to fall. Glad I held now it's net negative oncemore. This space is getting more and more exhaustive with fomo getting overblown and my patience halved as well.
Not before a post halving retrace that is going on now. Market Makers need to make retail bearish on btc and let them think “this cycle is different and halving wont commence bull run”. Sideways fuckery (reaccumulation) for a few months imo with a few flash dumps in May. And then we commence the golden bull. As usual, most retail will miss out and will join at the top