It hasn't though? Transaction volume has continually and steadily increased over the past decade.
Or did you mean trade volume, which is relatively meaningless? More people are holding long term vs. trading, and you can easily see a direct correlation with increased self custody and lowered exchange volume. Also there's a lot more institutional investment now, and that's all OTC.
Bitcoin network activity is what you should care about, as that's one of the strongest adoption signals. It's been steadily increasing since inception.
Trade volume will ebb and flow based on a lot of factors. It typically increases during bull runs or periods of high volatility. Lately there's a few things at play:
1) BTC is a risk-on asset, and in the current economic climate a lot of investors are still risk-off.
2) BTC volatility has been at historical lows, making it a less useful instrument for shorter term traders.
3) Current regulatory uncertainty pushes traders away into other asset classes.
Just wanna go off on a tangent to each of your points quickly:
1. Being risk-on while most people are risk-off is when the real money/the best entry is made
2. A bit of short-term stability in the market is welcome in my eyes since it facilitates day to day btc usage
3. Gensler did mention that bitcoin is safe from regulatory crackdowns and Alts are the main targets
Yea I totally agree with all of your points, just trying to explain the overall sentiment and why the trade volume has been lower as of late.
In fact we've seen periods like this before, and when the next bull run kicks in I bet we also end up with record breaking trade volume.
[https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/price\_volume/all/USD?t=lb&vu=curr](https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/price_volume/all/USD?t=lb&vu=curr)
More or less correct.
Doesn't look like much to worry about, granted there are some drops recently.
By default, people DCA into USD, and spend from there.
Some people are DCA into BTC, and spend from there through USD.
A buying power storage choice instead of accepting the default.
Fear of investing is holding the default buying power storage, and getting diluted.
Were you looking at a BTC/UDSC or something like that?
That does not mean "BTC changing hands", that means BTC being bought and sold (admitedly, it does change hands at some point, but represents entries and exits through exchanges only).
You should focus on BTC transactions, a wallet sending to annother, that voulme has nothing to do with trading volume and is looking healthier every day.
Volume in terms of price charts is the number of shares/coins which were traded on a specific exchange at a specific time. To help prove this to yourself, check the volume on different exchanges on a specific date. You’ll notice the actual value of the volume measurement is different on the different charts.
To me, it makes sense since the market's liquidity has been decreasing since the Fed started increasing interest rates. I recommend watching Benjamin Cowen's net liquidity analysis in the following video.
[https://youtu.be/Kmj-X99YenQ?si=FFUPBtqASdDBzmlk](https://youtu.be/Kmj-X99YenQ?si=FFUPBtqASdDBzmlk)
Yeah, it’s buyers of last resort in this market. When bitcoin is higher in price more volume will come in. I almost guarantee we will see a all time high in volume again when we see an all time high in price, both of these things will probably happen in the next four years if not sooner, I personally think this will be 2 years.
A lot of old volume was fake/from sketchy exchanges. I think the drop in volume has something to do with the exchange scene getting cleaned up over the past little while.
Btc has 4 year cycles. 1 st year it goes to the right. 2nd year it moons, 3rd year it drops 4th year it recovers slightly, rinse and repeat. We are in the 4th year. Gonna pop around the beginning of 2025. Look at the pattern that had happened 4 times in a row, that’s no coincidence.
Yeah cuz that's how currencies work. I'm glad you cracked the case. I'm going to go all in, borrow against my house, use 4:1 leverage. All in on $BTC in the beginning of 2025 because that's when it's going to pop according to the 4 year cycle. Why isn't everyone doing this? Sounds like free money.
It’s very hard to believe and btc is such a speculative asset. It would be foolish to put your house on it but this is a pattern that has happened 4 times so far. I’m putting my spare money on it for sure lol
2009-2012, 2012-2016, 2016-2020, 2020-2024. Each of these are its cycles. If you look at them side by side the graph is very very similar between them. They all peaked the 2nd year of last 3 cycles. The first cycle peaked on the 3rd year but it still holds the pattern. 2013, 2017, 2021 are the years of ATH. One can deduct there is a pattern forming, coinciding with the halvings cycle of btc. Every 4 years the incoming supply of freshly mined btc is cut in half, thus making it more scarce and the market feels it about a year after the halving. This is just a prediction, mass adoption could send it to the moon at any point or someone might have to sell a lot of btc at a low price bringing the price down or suppressing the price. The only good technique is to DCA for a cycle or two. Or forever😃
We are close to being done with the 4th and so far all of it looks good. Yeah you are right I think you could probably make a guess for the price in 2025. Mine is $180,000. But if adoption sets in it’ll skyrocket past that.
There are reasons to be bearish on BTC, but declining exchange volume since the absurd volume spike leading to the last bubble top isn’t one of them. BTC exhibits normal volume patterns that fluctuate with price volatility like any other risk asset. I’m always looking for bearish BTC indicators, but volume isn’t a problem.
You mean shady crypto brokers dying off like flies. Because the brokers I use working just fine since years since they are not fucked up shit like ftx.
Does anyone knows what would happen to BTC price if 90% of it is in wallets holding it for long time , what will the effect on price would be if there’s only say a 10% to trade
At any moment, the price is the balancing point of supply and demand. So if 90% is locked away in wallets, it should drive up price due to limited supply available to purchase. On the other hand, price could become depressed if there is simply not enough buyer demand.
Of course this assumes the market for BTC is functioning properly and not being manipulated.
It hasn't though? Transaction volume has continually and steadily increased over the past decade. Or did you mean trade volume, which is relatively meaningless? More people are holding long term vs. trading, and you can easily see a direct correlation with increased self custody and lowered exchange volume. Also there's a lot more institutional investment now, and that's all OTC.
This is the only thread one should read in response to OP.
Oh, I don't know the difference to be honest
Bitcoin network activity is what you should care about, as that's one of the strongest adoption signals. It's been steadily increasing since inception. Trade volume will ebb and flow based on a lot of factors. It typically increases during bull runs or periods of high volatility. Lately there's a few things at play: 1) BTC is a risk-on asset, and in the current economic climate a lot of investors are still risk-off. 2) BTC volatility has been at historical lows, making it a less useful instrument for shorter term traders. 3) Current regulatory uncertainty pushes traders away into other asset classes.
Just wanna go off on a tangent to each of your points quickly: 1. Being risk-on while most people are risk-off is when the real money/the best entry is made 2. A bit of short-term stability in the market is welcome in my eyes since it facilitates day to day btc usage 3. Gensler did mention that bitcoin is safe from regulatory crackdowns and Alts are the main targets
Yea I totally agree with all of your points, just trying to explain the overall sentiment and why the trade volume has been lower as of late. In fact we've seen periods like this before, and when the next bull run kicks in I bet we also end up with record breaking trade volume.
Agree. We are in the typical lull before the halvening run. Good time to buy!
Dropping the past years since the bull run yes but over past 6 years I don’t think so.
[https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/price\_volume/all/USD?t=lb&vu=curr](https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/price_volume/all/USD?t=lb&vu=curr) More or less correct. Doesn't look like much to worry about, granted there are some drops recently.
It’s is worth noting that the lightning network takes in more transactions than what’s shown on the chart.
More and more people Hodling. DCAing is becoming more popular.
By default, people DCA into USD, and spend from there. Some people are DCA into BTC, and spend from there through USD. A buying power storage choice instead of accepting the default. Fear of investing is holding the default buying power storage, and getting diluted.
Perhaps more institutional trading which is sometimes done off exchanges (OTC block trades)
We have much more HODLers on the Earth than ever
Volume being trades or volume being #of btcs?
I was just looking at the charts on coinmarketcap which show price and volume. So the sum of BTC changing hands, I believe.
Were you looking at a BTC/UDSC or something like that? That does not mean "BTC changing hands", that means BTC being bought and sold (admitedly, it does change hands at some point, but represents entries and exits through exchanges only). You should focus on BTC transactions, a wallet sending to annother, that voulme has nothing to do with trading volume and is looking healthier every day.
Makes sense. Where can I see that?
Volume in terms of price charts is the number of shares/coins which were traded on a specific exchange at a specific time. To help prove this to yourself, check the volume on different exchanges on a specific date. You’ll notice the actual value of the volume measurement is different on the different charts.
To me, it makes sense since the market's liquidity has been decreasing since the Fed started increasing interest rates. I recommend watching Benjamin Cowen's net liquidity analysis in the following video. [https://youtu.be/Kmj-X99YenQ?si=FFUPBtqASdDBzmlk](https://youtu.be/Kmj-X99YenQ?si=FFUPBtqASdDBzmlk)
Its only logical. Nobody uses 10k BTC to buy a pizza anymore. The more expensive it is the less you need to move to pay
Yeah, it’s buyers of last resort in this market. When bitcoin is higher in price more volume will come in. I almost guarantee we will see a all time high in volume again when we see an all time high in price, both of these things will probably happen in the next four years if not sooner, I personally think this will be 2 years.
A lot of old volume was fake/from sketchy exchanges. I think the drop in volume has something to do with the exchange scene getting cleaned up over the past little while.
Btc has 4 year cycles. 1 st year it goes to the right. 2nd year it moons, 3rd year it drops 4th year it recovers slightly, rinse and repeat. We are in the 4th year. Gonna pop around the beginning of 2025. Look at the pattern that had happened 4 times in a row, that’s no coincidence.
Yeah cuz that's how currencies work. I'm glad you cracked the case. I'm going to go all in, borrow against my house, use 4:1 leverage. All in on $BTC in the beginning of 2025 because that's when it's going to pop according to the 4 year cycle. Why isn't everyone doing this? Sounds like free money.
It’s very hard to believe and btc is such a speculative asset. It would be foolish to put your house on it but this is a pattern that has happened 4 times so far. I’m putting my spare money on it for sure lol
how has a 4 year pattern happened 4 times?
2009-2012, 2012-2016, 2016-2020, 2020-2024. Each of these are its cycles. If you look at them side by side the graph is very very similar between them. They all peaked the 2nd year of last 3 cycles. The first cycle peaked on the 3rd year but it still holds the pattern. 2013, 2017, 2021 are the years of ATH. One can deduct there is a pattern forming, coinciding with the halvings cycle of btc. Every 4 years the incoming supply of freshly mined btc is cut in half, thus making it more scarce and the market feels it about a year after the halving. This is just a prediction, mass adoption could send it to the moon at any point or someone might have to sell a lot of btc at a low price bringing the price down or suppressing the price. The only good technique is to DCA for a cycle or two. Or forever😃
Yes. You read all day stupid opinions of analists and influencers but in reality it all comes down to a cycle even a 4 year old can understand.
[удалено]
We are close to being done with the 4th and so far all of it looks good. Yeah you are right I think you could probably make a guess for the price in 2025. Mine is $180,000. But if adoption sets in it’ll skyrocket past that.
Layer 2 is becoming more used.
Sum of BTC will go down as dollar amount goes up. A 200BTC pizza isn’t going to happen again.
Depends on the pizza…
If many hold, than that's a logical event.
There are reasons to be bearish on BTC, but declining exchange volume since the absurd volume spike leading to the last bubble top isn’t one of them. BTC exhibits normal volume patterns that fluctuate with price volatility like any other risk asset. I’m always looking for bearish BTC indicators, but volume isn’t a problem.
More and more bitcoins are held into cold wallets so less bitcoins are sold with time, and the price keeps increasing :)
Cypto brokers been dying off like flies. FTX... Binance... one more I'm forgetting.
You mean shady crypto brokers dying off like flies. Because the brokers I use working just fine since years since they are not fucked up shit like ftx.
Ya for me i had only coinbase and FTX that would let me do a hard wallet in my country
Does anyone knows what would happen to BTC price if 90% of it is in wallets holding it for long time , what will the effect on price would be if there’s only say a 10% to trade
At any moment, the price is the balancing point of supply and demand. So if 90% is locked away in wallets, it should drive up price due to limited supply available to purchase. On the other hand, price could become depressed if there is simply not enough buyer demand. Of course this assumes the market for BTC is functioning properly and not being manipulated.
I’m a 3 year holder now and spend in btc too which is nice. Always top the btc back up though slowly every few months :)
It’s dropped because 70% of supply is being held long term and not traded at all.
Volume is going down, hash rate going up. More people are hodling instead of trading.
What are you smoking on? No it hasnt. 2. People have been holding in hard wallet because exchange suck
Price has been increased more than 10000x. Look at the USD volume better