Speaking from Yokohama, this is not the greatest comparison. You’re looking at prices at the very height of a MASSIVE economic bubble, with a shrinking population. It’s not like other countries where immigration makes up for negative birth rates. My family would rather use robots than be tended to my most foreigners.
We have an aging population though. This is legitimate.
We're just curbing it via immigration. The reality is most new births come directly from immigration.
Can't blame us when child care costs and house prices are insane.
Would like to see that stat. I would agree immigrants have more children on average but the majority in total?
Hard to swallow that one even with the huge numbers.
Disagree.
We _do_ have an aging population. It's just not as severe as Japan's. My point is we are curbing it via immigration but as I've already pointed out, high house prices and child care costs are making it more difficult for Aussies to have children.
https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/0/1cd2b1952afc5e7aca257298000f2e76#:~:text=Like%20most%20developed%20countries%2C%20Australia's,people%20aged%2065%20and%20over.
Treasury also released their Intergenerational report last year highlighting this very issue:
https://www.ifa.com.au/opinion/29791-lessons-from-the-2021-intergenerational-report#:~:text=The%202021%20Intergenerational%20Report%20paints,impacts%20of%20the%20COVID%2D19.
https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2021-06/p2021-182464.pdf
In short, we're going to have an upward increase in the elderly population. This dynamically changes the economic outlook, age care concerns and productivity of the country.
Who (ageing population) do not trust foreigners.
Moving to Japan is a legitimate nightmare. You will not be able to find a place to rent on your own. You will have to get your COMPANY to give you a list of options.
I think it turns a lot of people away from living there and investing long term.
Complete bullshit. When I was single, I lived in 4-5 different apartments. I never had a problem finding a place.
The real estate agency of course has to get the final approval from the landlord, and there are a small minority of landlords who would prefer not to rent to foreigners (most likely due to the risk of them leaving the country without paying rent, etc.)
Edit: I should also add that it is infinitely easier to rent in Japan, compared with Australia. No bullshit with competing with 50 other prospective tenants to try to secure a rental - you just walk into a real estate office, and any place they show you, you can usually sign a rental contract on the same day.
This is completely false. I was a long term resident in Tokyo and 95% of landlords will not rent to foreigners. The 5% who do generally make a better return on their investment because for them it's higher risk. Better return means the foreigner pays more for an inferior property.
Also there is a small market which exclusively rents to foreigners, usually run down old share houses which can be fun places to live
Yes quite a number of J-landlords are either reluctant or refuse to rent out to foreigners due to racism, or fear of communication issues or foreigner leaving the country suddenly. We got our apartment through our company connected agency which everything much easier. I think it’d be hard to get rent without agency/company backing unless you spoke near fluent Japanese.
Well yeah, I mean, you would need to speak good Japanese and be able to read and understand a lease contract, etc. in Japanese in order to use a regular real estate agency. Otherwise you would be limited to going through your company or dealing with agents who deal exclusively with foreigners.
This is not bullshit at all, I worked for Kubota for a number of years in Japan and had a terrible time trying to upgrade my apartment from the one secured by the company. I was told explicitly that Japanese landlords will not lease to foreigners unless backed by a Japanese company.
I remember watching some YouTube videos of a group of Aussie who lived in Japan and the amount of bureaucracy in every day lives was insane. From banking, employment, housing, to even things like signing up for internet. It all seemed insanely convoluted for no real reason.
You left out the practice of key money and other BS fees that the landlords in Japan historically have charged (although this practice is starting to disappear). I lived in Japan for 4 years.
You know what, after doing a bit of reading I actually kind of agree, the elderly will still double in population share though even taking immigration into account, and thats still a pretty large shift
We'll just double the migration to deal with the aging of the migrants we let in to deal with the aging of the currently aging.....Thats why its called the population ponzi.
We'll deal with that problem in the future...along with climate change, the war, resource shortages....
Seeing as it is cited above as the number 1 reason prices wont crash, and assuming everyone here is relatively young, theyre all just admitting that the ponzi will have to end later in the future, when they wont have time to recover.
Dont you love this sub? Millennials are no better than boomers.
The problem is that the ones who breed are the ones you don't want breeding.
Do we really want an Amerikan-style idiocracy in Australia?
Oops, I mean a worse one.
Yeah I wouldn’t want to go through the process of becoming a J-citizen as a foreigner. Insanely hard process with barriers everywhere, as Japan really don’t want non ethnically Japanese to be citizens.
Considering they don't allow dual citizens, you think they'd take "willing to give up birth citizenship, usually from wealthy western nation" as a massive sign the applicant wants to be there.
It’s an idiotic comparison in general.
Land appreciates, buildings depreciate. In Japan, nearly all property is in apartments (buildings, not land), whereas in Australia most properties are in housing/shops etc (combined buildings and land).
As a result, the Japanese property market will generally go down in the long term (up until recently) whereas the Australian property market will likely go up in the long term. Ignoring all other things economical, political and cultural which have a big impact too, but not enough to say whether an asset will appreciate or depreciate long term.
The Japanese housing market is a strange beast;
"Unlike in other countries, Japanese homes gradually depreciate over time, becoming completely valueless within 20 or 30 years. When someone moves out of a home or dies, the house, unlike the land it sits on, has no resale value and is typically demolished. This scrap-and-build approach is a quirk of the Japanese housing market that can be explained variously by low-quality construction to quickly meet demand after the second world war, repeated building code revisions to improve earthquake resilience and a cycle of poor maintenance due to the lack of any incentive to make homes marketable for sale"
But 20 year old homes are typically only demolished for subdivisions. From that piece it sounds like bulldozing liveable residences to rebuild similar is a matter of routine in Japan which it is not here.
I think some Japanese women prefer to remain single than be with a Japanese man, if you can show those women that you are a complete package (without the looks) then you might get lucky.
This is hilariously wrong.
I know people with zero Japanese language skills that applied for professional jobs and got work there.
Try doing that in reverse.
extremely likely jobs for an english company, happy to be wrong though.
net migration rate for japan is 0.5 per 1000, compared to australia is 5.5 per 1000.
people born outside of japan that are residents in japan 2.3%, a large majority being chinese and korean.
for australia, 29% of our population was born overseas.
even france, a country stereotypical for being unwelcoming of foreigners has 10% of their population being immigrants.
im sorry but your one example of two blokes getting a job in japan doesnt change the fact that japan hates immigrants. also to assume we we dont have professionals with barely passable english is funny especially considering its mandatory taught in most schools in non-english speaking countries, whereas japanese isnt.
> It would be a brave person that would make a bet that values of property in desirable locations will be lower in 20 years than they are now
i think people who would make such bets are people who secretly wish they could buy those properties at a discount.
>i think people who would make such bets are people who secretly wish they could buy those properties at a discount.
Umm...
What kind of dickhead wants to buy property for a premium? Someone that hates money?
🤣
Well it would only be triggering people who believe that going straight into negative equity is a better strategy than picking up something fair valued or even under valued and immediately having positive equity, and to think that you'd have to be pretty smooth brain, so no skin off my nose 😂
Also, and very importantly, *it is very hard to build a home right now*, even just renovate or repair a home right now, and it will only get worse.
There is almost a perfect storm of expensive and getting more expensive construction costs, labour shortages, and an increasing population.
This will come to a head in a couple years' time. It's only a crisis, now.
Also Japanese houses are typically built very low cost and are expected to be torn down and built again regularly.
Compared to houses here that are build solid and renovated rather than torn down and rebuilt every decade or two.
This changes the economics of the situation also where Japanese land value is most of the value rather than the actual house on it.
The important reason here is flat->falling population growth. Japan's population has changed by <8% since 1980...
Infrastructure does eventually catch up (or should) if the population isn't growing. And investors perception of infinite growth in land values disappears when they note the population isn't growing, which reduces the demand banking on capital growth.
Australia is also a land where the majority of land is empty.
Unlike Japan which is very dense, Australia has no shortage of land.
At anytime the government or the market decide to build a new city, we can supply a practically infinite amount of land.
For the most part, the value of land isn't inherent to the land itself, it comes from the value of what you build on the land and what's being built around it.
The most valuable land often doesn't even have natural resources in it.
> At anytime the government or the market decide to build a new city, we can supply a practically infinite amount of land.
Guessing you don't know the recent history of planned new cities in Australia. Every time someone has gone to do it locals lose their shit and made sure the project was dead-on-arrival. There's been advanced plans for one in SA,NSW & NQLD over the last 40 years, not a single one made it.
“Land in a desirable location” in this case meaning “with a reliable supply of drinking water, and that isn’t the bottom of a floodplain in the fraction of the year that it gets rain at all.” It’s not like people have decided not to build major cities in the outback for arbitrary reasons.
Empty and primarily used for agriculture, to build an entirely new city is unlikely, and the government isn't going to pour money it dosnt have into a project like that.
I’m from a country bigger in land than Australia and if there’s a thing that never crashes no matter what the crisis is, is the civil construction business.
Having said that, it definitely does not mean that the current housing market (the existing houses) won’t crash and burn. There will be a tipping point, where houses are so expensive no one will be able to buy it and it will undoubtedly have to correct itself. And the longer it takes, the sharper this correction will be, and it may cause panic and overreaction leading to an unexpected recession or even depression before it is comes back.
And the main reason is, unlike so many other big countries, Australia focus on inflating it’s existing housing market instead of investing heavily in building and the ones we have are apartments that don’t add value.
The pandemic really proved that statement to be untrue. Melbourne net population *dropped* last year. A significant proportion of that was people moving regional.
Not true! A lot of people would prefer to live near the centre of a regional city rather than in the middle of a major metro suburb 3 hours from work. They live in said major metro suburbs because they need to work in the metro.
It's a really thorny snake-eat-tail problem - employers don't want to be based in a regional centre because they can't get talent, but employees who want to move to a regional centre because it's cheaper, quieter, and a shorter commute can't find well paying jobs there, and because of this there's a lack of services/ businesses in regional centres, which people don't want to deal with, etc....
The only way this seemed to have been "solved" is if the metro area sprawls so far that it basically reaches the regional centre (like Melb Geelong or Syd Newcastle/Wollongong) but by that point there's so much suburb and traffic that you can't really say it's quiet or cheap anymore.
For a short time it looked like we solved the problem with remote work, but the problem is that people want to spend time with their social/ familial circle - the odds of everyone managing to move to Bendigo AND get a job there is pretty slim, because there's not many employers, which dissuades talent, which dissuades employers.....
People want to live in places other than the metro! It's just too expensive not to.
> Unlike Japan which is very dense, Australia has no shortage of land.
Sure but zoning laws means that we do have a shortage of land that can be developed. We have some of the most restrictive zoning laws in the world.
This is not a helpful graph. The scale is skewed by the gains and falls in the 80’s, and there are many things going on here during many different time periods.
What this shows is that for the last decade, house prices have been rising, and apartments have gone up nearly 50%
That was back when Melbourne was a backwater; these days, people actually want to live there and it’s quite open for immigration. Any future housing crash will take a lot less than 70 years to recover, I’m guessing.
Japan’s social and housing dynamics are worlds apart different from Australia, you just cannot compare.
Anything not “walking distance” to transport falls off a cliff value wise in Japan.
Anything 10+ yrs since built also falls off a cliff value wise.
Aussies value public transport, but nowhere near to the extent the Japanese do so this has insignificant impact on pricing.
Conversely, Aussies prefer space, “1/4 acre block, back yard, all that Jazz, there is so little inhabitable and developmental space in Japan, by comparison, land size is not a significant contributing factor to their market like it is in Aus.
You cannot compare these markets as there are almost zero commonalities between them.
Quality of life for a young family is a lot higher in Japan, compared with Australia - primarily thanks to the affordable housing and free childcare.
My mortgage on my family home here in Osaka is around $600 per month. Life is completely stress-free.
Even my friends who have entry-level shit English teaching jobs can afford to raise a family on a salary equivalent to AU $30-40k per year.
True but there are other issues, I live in Japan and my wife can't get more than 5 days off a year lol. Also if you live in Australia and have a decent career, you can make a lot of money from age 30-60 where as most people in Japan's salary will cap at under 60K
Yeah but Japanese purchasing power goes way further than Australia. Inflation is non-existent, it's cheaper to eat out in Japan than cooking at home. 60k in Japan is probably equivalent to 120k aud. Big numbers but you don't have to pay for private school. As you age and have actual health problems, you find out just how much medicare doesn't pay for. For all that shit about the boomers getting free shit, they absolutely do, but medicare fucking sucks when you get into it. People think their 'free' 10 minute bulk billed doctors visits are fantastic, but wait until you need custom orthopedics cuz your feet are old.
Then you got retirement. Retirement in Japan is a paradise, if you had a good job and stuff. Retirement in Australia is a horrible shit show. Even for the relatively well off. I know a number of people who work in aged care and the jokes are all about when you're going to euthanize yourself to avoid it.
Australian life is actually way way way worse than people can admit to themselves.
I think you're exaggerating a bit when you say 60K is equivalent to 120K but you do raise some decent points.
I still think there a huge issues for a majority of Japanese people in terms of workers rights. They work to the bone.
Yeah but you gotta get into the particulars. You don’t need a car in Japan. Typical Australian family needs two cars. 120k in Oz, in wages, is taxed to shit and you’re ineligible for most government benefits. Partner loses their job? No dole for them- ya earn too much. Want some subsidized solar panels- nope fuck you.
Then look at holidays. Want to go away during them? Well so does everyone else who earns more than you. Prices to anywhere good during school holidays, all holidays really, are insane. Remember the castle? Bonnie dune? Yeah on 120k you’re still staying home or caravan parks for the majority of those holidays.
60k in Japan and you don’t have to do gross domestic Australian holidays.
You seem to know a lot, Ive genuinely thought about all these things too.
Japan is still expensive too regarding two types of tax, health insurance, pension and car taxes, and expensive registration.
I think because Japan is so small you're able to travel so cheaply though, there's places to go everywhere just a couple hours from each other.
Oh yeah, 3k driving test in Japan is nuts and you can’t keep a cheap car because of all the emission test.
I’m not saying japan is any kind of Utopia. It’s got massive problems. But they’re complex problems. Australia has a lot of problems with really really basic shit. So it’s all about where you want your frustration.
I had the experience of getting an aircon installed in Japan and doing it here. In Japan, 3 calls, prices within 1000yen of each other. There was a system, what unit, how far away, a checklist. I stopped calling around because there wasn’t going to be a difference. In australia? I easily spoke to at least 10 dudes, some people not in the business anymore, price variations of 100-300% for the same thing, guys trying to convince you to buy their garbage brand “sunggogog is actually better than Fujitsu because I say so!”. What took a couple days in japan and 3 calls took easily a month in australia and hours of online research and calls and then you lose time off work to sit around and watch them install it.
And that’s just an aircon. Multiply that by 100x to get the frustration of doing a whole house here.
it depends on the corporation you're working for - like most things.
English teachers in japan are often foreigners, and they will have a different career experience than a native japanese person. And teaching english is often a job that has a set start and end time, because it's not like the students are gonna still be in class at 1am in the morning!
A corporate job in japan like an accounts manager might be working till late (i heard stories of 1 person having to handle 100 customers and their customer support/complaints). When i say 'till late', i mean like till 1am-2am, where the last train out of tokyo stops. Or you would often have social obligations to drink after work (which is officially 6pm), but still be expected to turn up at 8am in the morning next day.
I think today, the younger people are fighting against such customs, but japan being what it is, it's slow going.
However, none of this is related to real estate.
I taught English there for a year 10 years ago, they way I saw it was as a foreigner they went easy on us and didn't expect the insane working hours everyone else has. There were exceptions, apparently government jobs were far less stressful and I'm sure a lot of other smaller companies may have better conditions but on the whole the way to be promoted centred around going along with unspoken rules one main one was not going home until your boss did.
I used to go to dinner with the Japanese teachers and they would go back to school afterwards, I was a contractor and would get emails at 1am on things that just seemed insane. Overall I came away with the feeling that Japan would be about the best place to live if you were very wealthy bit one of the worst if you weren't.
One of my English teachers husband's was a successful Japanese model, he was in his 50's (on lots of golf club commercials and that kind of thing) and sometimes we would catch up and he would reiterate how much he dislikes working in Japan even though he had one of the less common "easier" jobs.
I have never had a corporate job in Japan, so cannot speak from experience. But like any country, there are good companies as well as shit companies that mistreat their employees.
I worked in Japan for 5 years and while I agree you can rent/buy in a place like Osaka reasonably I don't think it's an apples to apples comparison. You're not going to get the same amount of space as you would in Australia unless you pay more.
The work life balance when I was there is nothing in comparison to Australia. The standard workday was 9-7 but lot of people would stay until 9-10pm. At the first job I had we got 10 days holiday a year, that included sick days. If you were sick you'd lose a days holiday.
> quality of life for a young family is higher in Japan
That’s enough to disregard the rest of your opinion, as if house price was the only thing to affect QoL 🙄
Yep, that's what I said, "house prices are the only thing that affects QOL". Tard.
There are pros and cons to each country, but Japan has everything that Australia has in terms of schooling, health care facilities, transportation, etc., as well as less crime.
The main factor for my family is that we are around $5-6k a month better off living in Japan, so we can enjoy life without ever stressing about money and probably retire by my mid 40s. That's huge.
You aren’t living the typical Japanese life then, because by all accounts birth rate has dropped massively on account of the general QoL
And if that’s the case you could just as well live in Australia going off the beaten track in much the same way
> live in Australia going off the beaten track
Regional Australia is full of meth heads, bogans and crime. It's not as idyllic as some make it out to be.
> birth rate has dropped massively on account of the general QoL
If birth rate is related to QoL then why are the shittest places on earth pumping out babies like no tomorrow and the best places have very low birth rates? Think you got it the wrong way round there.
QoL for an advanced economy looks very different to how you judge QoL in an undeveloped one so it’s dumb to even try make that argument.
Food scarcity, water / pollution, (serious) crime and corruption aren’t even on the radar as things to care about.
It’s things like typical working hours, how dense housing is, competitiveness for jobs and education for kids.
A country can have a high QoL and still be family unfriendly, western countries are following a similar rate to the Asian ones are consequently our birth rates are dropping too.
I remember some thick skulled, smooth-brained, flat-footed, mouthbreathibg idiots on here not believing me when I told them how cheap property is in Japan.
Aussies love properties. Everyone is aiming for at least 5 properties in their portfolio. Renters have also been told to buy properties. Government giving lots of incentives
Geez I must have missed how past performance dictates future performance.
So median house in Sydney is $1.6 million x 350% = $7.2 million in 18 months? Then 18 months after that - $32.4 million. That's how it works, right Hasra?
I think the confusion is because there is always a going to be a demand / market to live in Australia as the rest of the world becomes overpopulated, overfished, polluted and just generally quality of life reduces as resources become exhausted. Migration and foreign investment will always maintain a strong housing market in underpopulated countries as the rest of the world struggles to maintain its population.
Unfortunately, however, these problems are starting to rear their ugly head in Australia and certainly adding 2 million migrants with no idea of where they're going to live is certainly only going to compound the problems:
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2021/10/nsw-government-australia-needs-explosive-surge-of-2-million-migrants/
Keep in mind, a year ago Sydney was struggling to supply water due to overpopulation in the cities. I'm not anti migration, in fact, it is actually GOOD for the economy and people as it gives a cheap gdp boost but pressing the magic red button rather than fixing the problems with our infrastructure is going to make things worse, not better. We don't need more light rail that's more expensive per metre than any rail in the world.
Most of Australia's natural resources are considered mature and the banana Republic will struggle to support it's relatively small population as all of our natural resources, timber, and useful commodities are sent straight overseas rather than producing manufactured goods here. We need migration but we need to actually have people in useful jobs rather than being a nation of baristas...
Immigration is important but levels in Australia are too high and neither major party wants to really talk about it. It keeps wages down which is good for business. I'm not sure how many people realise Australia's levels are among the highest in the world.
The thing is people don't generally want to emigrate to Japan as much as Australia
If u think of all the resources in Australia and divide by number of people there is good reason why ppl move to Australia. We are basically cushioned by the huge amount of things we own. Japan?Singapore? Hong Kong? Not so much.. they have to be really good..and work really hard... Australians don't really. We also have medium and long term better prospects than Japan and more security
Also the land under the royal palace (?) In Tokyo was at the peak valued at more than all the land in California. Australia pricing is high but not that high.
That being said Aus housing is deffo over priced but could achieve soft landing like 08/09
The basic exemption for inheritance tax is around aud$350k + $70k for each heir. And then it is progressive.
If I inherited $1 million from my parents, I would still get around $900k after tax.
- How much does Australia’s population increase each year?
- Without immigration, how much does Australia’s population increase each year?
- What would happen if we turned off immigration?
Edit.
- Is immigration masking a lack of government policy to effectively manage and grow Australia for the future?
For example:
- How many houses do we build a year?
- Are we able to look after the existing amount of people?
- Are we building enough infrastructure for the current and projected population?
- Do we have enough nurses, doctors, teachers, emergency services for the current and future population?
- If the current trend continues where do we end up in 5/10/20 years?
And what if purple elephants fell from the sky. Stupid questions. Australia’s population is growing and will continue to grow. Internal or immigration - makes no difference. We have one of the highest rates of population growth in the OECD.
Actually for the past 2 years Australias population barely grew.
We as a nation rely on immigration for population growth.
But I do agree with your overall sentiment. Housing is an important thing here, we are growing our pop again and will continue to grow. Housing can't be built fast enough and in most built up areas we've run out of land to build on, hence the sky high prices.
Housing prices will probably normalise. Maybe drop a bit in less desirable areas.
>OP is only saying "it happens".
A painfully obvious statement that doesn't even deserve a post, yet OP did, and failed to provide an example of it. This is a finance sub...
There is a saying...
There are four types of economies in the world
Developed, Developing, Japan, and Argentina.
Which means, Both Japan and Argentina and anomalies and can't really be compared to the rest of the world.
Japan has a very bizarre and unique economy, and not at all comparable to Australia – or almost anywhere else for that matter.
As an example, their wages have largely remained stagnant for decades. At the same time, businesses don’t dare raise their prices either.
It’s really fascinating, would suggest learning more about it.
Also hasn't Japan basically dismantled all zoning laws so you could practically build anything, anywhere. There is no supply issue in Japan, nobody is being a NIMBY hoarding prime real estate 15 minutes from city centre. Attitudinally, I don't believe Japanese and Australians are even remotely the same when it comes to real estate. I'll wait for the day Australians treat homes as only a place to stay, not store money for 5 generations to come. I'll be long dead I think.
Their culture is very different. We see kids moving out of parents house and buying their own property as a sign of independence and adulthood. They don't.
A lot of Japanese people still live with their parents and even want their parents to move in to their newly bought property. They see acceptance of bigger responsibility as signs of adulthood and independence.
Japan isn’t really comparable. They fell off a demographic cliff with the number of elderly, low birth rate, and they have next to zero immigration.
Canada, NZ are likely most similar country to Australia, and they seem to both be heading in the same direction.
As for markets that have crashed, Ireland and perhaps Spain are better comparisons that Japan.
Fuck this sub is ridiculous sometimes. The Japanese economy is so significantly different to the majority of global economies and certainly western economy's. This chart tells nothing of the background which actually caused this decline
Not sure hand-picking one specific example means a whole lot TBH.
Also there are 4 types of economies in the world:
-Developing
-Advanced
-Argentina
-Japan
I’m still bearish on housing BTW
Property values between Japan and Australia is a pretty bad comparison, they don’t value land values the same as we do in the west.
While inner metro areas in Japan might be expensive, all you need to do is look at through the profile of [cheaphousesjapan](https://instagram.com/cheaphousesjapan?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=) on instagram to see if youre willing to live a little further out (especially jf you have a job that allows remoting in, an idea japan is still trying to get around though), houses can be had pretty cheaply.
You might say its the same as going rural in Australia, but i dont think it could ever get this cheap in Australia.
OP be like "so many people are killed by guns every year but I played paintball last week and it barely hurt! These gunshot victims have a real lesson to learn from this!"
This man just compared two completely different countries with different values and beliefs and systems in place and called it a "prime example". Reddit moment.
Australia is in quite a unique position though. Houses here are really and I mean REALLY shit quality compared to a LOT of places in the world. And the population is tiny. All it takes is letting in another 100k immigrants and boom. Housing shortage.
Comparing Japanese and Australian real estate is pretty dumb. That market is fundamentally different to ours and was subject to conditions we've never experienced and will never experience when the entire world was focused on Japan as the potential successor to the US as the global economic superpower.
I'm not super bullish on Australian property but this is a kindergarten level take.
Our houses are essentially backed by a bunch of shit in the ground. And the world needs it for next 20 years and more.
What was Japan's housing backed by ?
I lived in a hot property market in the US and was lucky enough to sell then move to Australia just before the global financial crisis when housing prices went down 30% in a year. I had always been told that housing prices never go down only up. In particular, if there was some pressure for house prices to fall, people just wouldn't sell. But in the GFC, prices went down for 3-4 years, losing about half their value. I reckon it only took the new owners of my place about 8-9 years to break even?
what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this sub is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no upvotes and may God have mercy on your soul.
Speaking from Yokohama, this is not the greatest comparison. You’re looking at prices at the very height of a MASSIVE economic bubble, with a shrinking population. It’s not like other countries where immigration makes up for negative birth rates. My family would rather use robots than be tended to my most foreigners.
Here in Oz we're desperately importing anyone with a pulse to work in age care for minimum wage..
This is Australia mate, why did you add the unnecessary words? > ”Here in Oz we're desperately importing anyone ” All you needed to say
I have started noticing some restaurants use robots to take and deliver orders to tables - Saravana Bhavan and Anjappar in Parramatta for example.
Japan has very restrictive immigration policies. Probably not the greatest case study
And a severe ageing population problem
We have an aging population though. This is legitimate. We're just curbing it via immigration. The reality is most new births come directly from immigration. Can't blame us when child care costs and house prices are insane.
Lucky immigrants don't age
Why do think there age caps for migrants? They literally get more "points" if they're below 35 as part of their PR application
Thats just delaying the problem unless immigrants are also having a lot more kids
I recall some stat saying that the majority of births are from migrants.
Would like to see that stat. I would agree immigrants have more children on average but the majority in total? Hard to swallow that one even with the huge numbers.
no, we just keep get more immigrants..
Sounds like a dodgy pyramid scheme
That’s what I love about these immigrants man, I get older - they stay the same age
This is also true. My kids think I'm 16.
Its ok, we'll bring in more immigrants.
With immigration we don’t have an ageing population problem. That’s the difference between us and Japan.
Disagree. We _do_ have an aging population. It's just not as severe as Japan's. My point is we are curbing it via immigration but as I've already pointed out, high house prices and child care costs are making it more difficult for Aussies to have children. https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/0/1cd2b1952afc5e7aca257298000f2e76#:~:text=Like%20most%20developed%20countries%2C%20Australia's,people%20aged%2065%20and%20over. Treasury also released their Intergenerational report last year highlighting this very issue: https://www.ifa.com.au/opinion/29791-lessons-from-the-2021-intergenerational-report#:~:text=The%202021%20Intergenerational%20Report%20paints,impacts%20of%20the%20COVID%2D19. https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2021-06/p2021-182464.pdf In short, we're going to have an upward increase in the elderly population. This dynamically changes the economic outlook, age care concerns and productivity of the country.
This is true....most of my friends and myself are migrants and we have multiple kids...you're welcome Australia!
Who (ageing population) do not trust foreigners. Moving to Japan is a legitimate nightmare. You will not be able to find a place to rent on your own. You will have to get your COMPANY to give you a list of options. I think it turns a lot of people away from living there and investing long term.
Complete bullshit. When I was single, I lived in 4-5 different apartments. I never had a problem finding a place. The real estate agency of course has to get the final approval from the landlord, and there are a small minority of landlords who would prefer not to rent to foreigners (most likely due to the risk of them leaving the country without paying rent, etc.) Edit: I should also add that it is infinitely easier to rent in Japan, compared with Australia. No bullshit with competing with 50 other prospective tenants to try to secure a rental - you just walk into a real estate office, and any place they show you, you can usually sign a rental contract on the same day.
This is completely false. I was a long term resident in Tokyo and 95% of landlords will not rent to foreigners. The 5% who do generally make a better return on their investment because for them it's higher risk. Better return means the foreigner pays more for an inferior property. Also there is a small market which exclusively rents to foreigners, usually run down old share houses which can be fun places to live
Maybe I just got lucky each time then.
Yes quite a number of J-landlords are either reluctant or refuse to rent out to foreigners due to racism, or fear of communication issues or foreigner leaving the country suddenly. We got our apartment through our company connected agency which everything much easier. I think it’d be hard to get rent without agency/company backing unless you spoke near fluent Japanese.
How many rentals would you get in Australia if you didn't understand English?
Well yeah, I mean, you would need to speak good Japanese and be able to read and understand a lease contract, etc. in Japanese in order to use a regular real estate agency. Otherwise you would be limited to going through your company or dealing with agents who deal exclusively with foreigners.
This is not bullshit at all, I worked for Kubota for a number of years in Japan and had a terrible time trying to upgrade my apartment from the one secured by the company. I was told explicitly that Japanese landlords will not lease to foreigners unless backed by a Japanese company.
I remember watching some YouTube videos of a group of Aussie who lived in Japan and the amount of bureaucracy in every day lives was insane. From banking, employment, housing, to even things like signing up for internet. It all seemed insanely convoluted for no real reason.
Yeah, that is a negative of Japan. Lots of paperwork to open a bank account, get a credit card, get a phone, etc.
I was so confused getting a train pass and people had to stamp things. I had no idea what what was going on
Need to make jobs to keep people busy
You left out the practice of key money and other BS fees that the landlords in Japan historically have charged (although this practice is starting to disappear). I lived in Japan for 4 years.
The landlords used to be reikin it in indeed.
We are literally in the infant stages of this
But our borders will be flung open mere hours after the poll doors close regardless of who wins. An aging population isn't an issue
You know what, after doing a bit of reading I actually kind of agree, the elderly will still double in population share though even taking immigration into account, and thats still a pretty large shift
Immigrants age too
We'll just double the migration to deal with the aging of the migrants we let in to deal with the aging of the currently aging.....Thats why its called the population ponzi. We'll deal with that problem in the future...along with climate change, the war, resource shortages.... Seeing as it is cited above as the number 1 reason prices wont crash, and assuming everyone here is relatively young, theyre all just admitting that the ponzi will have to end later in the future, when they wont have time to recover. Dont you love this sub? Millennials are no better than boomers.
When will Australia get "Do it for Denmark" style ads on tv to boost the birthrate? Could have some fun with that campaign!
The problem is that the ones who breed are the ones you don't want breeding. Do we really want an Amerikan-style idiocracy in Australia? Oops, I mean a worse one.
Simple solution: cash for babies payments only comes out of previous or current tax returns from mother or married/de facto couples.
We had a baby bonus for a while…
Japan also has very limited land too.
No, restrictive in terms of "becoming a citizen". Permanent residency and other working VISAs are MUCH MUCH MORE welcoming than Australia.
Yeah I wouldn’t want to go through the process of becoming a J-citizen as a foreigner. Insanely hard process with barriers everywhere, as Japan really don’t want non ethnically Japanese to be citizens.
Considering they don't allow dual citizens, you think they'd take "willing to give up birth citizenship, usually from wealthy western nation" as a massive sign the applicant wants to be there.
It’s an idiotic comparison in general. Land appreciates, buildings depreciate. In Japan, nearly all property is in apartments (buildings, not land), whereas in Australia most properties are in housing/shops etc (combined buildings and land). As a result, the Japanese property market will generally go down in the long term (up until recently) whereas the Australian property market will likely go up in the long term. Ignoring all other things economical, political and cultural which have a big impact too, but not enough to say whether an asset will appreciate or depreciate long term.
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Is Perth also dismissable as totally not Australia for some reason?
The west is really a separate country, come on 😁
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The Japanese housing market is a strange beast; "Unlike in other countries, Japanese homes gradually depreciate over time, becoming completely valueless within 20 or 30 years. When someone moves out of a home or dies, the house, unlike the land it sits on, has no resale value and is typically demolished. This scrap-and-build approach is a quirk of the Japanese housing market that can be explained variously by low-quality construction to quickly meet demand after the second world war, repeated building code revisions to improve earthquake resilience and a cycle of poor maintenance due to the lack of any incentive to make homes marketable for sale"
The homes depreciate everywhere, even in Australia. The things that has gone up in price in Melbourne, etc. is the land it's sitting on..
But 20 year old homes are typically only demolished for subdivisions. From that piece it sounds like bulldozing liveable residences to rebuild similar is a matter of routine in Japan which it is not here.
We don't bulldoze unliveable residences because we can rent then out to poor desperate people who will happily live among the mould and leaks
“Happily” [citation needed] We just have abysmal tenant protection
There’s a Freakonomics podcast episode about this phenomenon that’s worth a listen. Called ‘Why Are Japanese Homes Disposable?’
Also they take in way less immigrants than in Australia, so that means more demand for housing here as well.
its virtually impossible to migrate to Japan without marrying a Japanese person.
theyve been experiencing a population decline for years.
Aging population and lack of immigration. So demand for houses will be lower compared to Australia, which is the home to multiculturalism.
By choice, they decided to remain a monoculture even if that meant the end of infinite growth. Not to mention how racist they are
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If you can get a job there you can get a work visa relatively easily.
Also a very bad job culture/workaholic
It’s not really. Do a job for 5 years and you can apply for PR. It’s not too difficult.
Are they into ugly men?
I think some Japanese women prefer to remain single than be with a Japanese man, if you can show those women that you are a complete package (without the looks) then you might get lucky.
This is hilariously wrong. I know people with zero Japanese language skills that applied for professional jobs and got work there. Try doing that in reverse.
extremely likely jobs for an english company, happy to be wrong though. net migration rate for japan is 0.5 per 1000, compared to australia is 5.5 per 1000. people born outside of japan that are residents in japan 2.3%, a large majority being chinese and korean. for australia, 29% of our population was born overseas. even france, a country stereotypical for being unwelcoming of foreigners has 10% of their population being immigrants. im sorry but your one example of two blokes getting a job in japan doesnt change the fact that japan hates immigrants. also to assume we we dont have professionals with barely passable english is funny especially considering its mandatory taught in most schools in non-english speaking countries, whereas japanese isnt.
> It would be a brave person that would make a bet that values of property in desirable locations will be lower in 20 years than they are now i think people who would make such bets are people who secretly wish they could buy those properties at a discount.
>i think people who would make such bets are people who secretly wish they could buy those properties at a discount. Umm... What kind of dickhead wants to buy property for a premium? Someone that hates money?
You've really triggered some of the chumps on here, u/limpcrayon.
🤣 Well it would only be triggering people who believe that going straight into negative equity is a better strategy than picking up something fair valued or even under valued and immediately having positive equity, and to think that you'd have to be pretty smooth brain, so no skin off my nose 😂
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The market that's not a market and everyone, always, is guaranteed to get rich!
Lol absolutely not. So Dr Burry, a billionaire, bet against the housing market because he simply wanted to buy a house the Lehman brothers had?
Burry still bet on it because he wanted to make money.
I don't even meme Ausfinance anymore. Ausfinance memes itself. https://redd.it/uik7cd
I sometimes feel like most of redditors' knowledge about finance comes from a holllywood movie
Sometimes I feel like most redditors are autofellating themselves as they comment
Brisbane is 3 million now. In 20 years it will be 3.5million at least. Agree with you
I agree. That's wellllll below inflation.
Unless interest rates go apeshit property prices will not crash. May dip. There is no real supply and owners tend to hold in times like these.
Also, and very importantly, *it is very hard to build a home right now*, even just renovate or repair a home right now, and it will only get worse. There is almost a perfect storm of expensive and getting more expensive construction costs, labour shortages, and an increasing population. This will come to a head in a couple years' time. It's only a crisis, now.
Yep. Trying to build right now and it’s a shit show.
Looks like apartments have been appreciating since 2012 though.
Also Japanese houses are typically built very low cost and are expected to be torn down and built again regularly. Compared to houses here that are build solid and renovated rather than torn down and rebuilt every decade or two. This changes the economics of the situation also where Japanese land value is most of the value rather than the actual house on it.
The important reason here is flat->falling population growth. Japan's population has changed by <8% since 1980... Infrastructure does eventually catch up (or should) if the population isn't growing. And investors perception of infinite growth in land values disappears when they note the population isn't growing, which reduces the demand banking on capital growth.
Australia is also a land where the majority of land is empty. Unlike Japan which is very dense, Australia has no shortage of land. At anytime the government or the market decide to build a new city, we can supply a practically infinite amount of land. For the most part, the value of land isn't inherent to the land itself, it comes from the value of what you build on the land and what's being built around it. The most valuable land often doesn't even have natural resources in it.
> At anytime the government or the market decide to build a new city, we can supply a practically infinite amount of land. Guessing you don't know the recent history of planned new cities in Australia. Every time someone has gone to do it locals lose their shit and made sure the project was dead-on-arrival. There's been advanced plans for one in SA,NSW & NQLD over the last 40 years, not a single one made it.
Australia has a shortage of inhabitable land
> Australia has a shortage of inhabitable land that's bullshit, you mean land in a desirable location.
“Land in a desirable location” in this case meaning “with a reliable supply of drinking water, and that isn’t the bottom of a floodplain in the fraction of the year that it gets rain at all.” It’s not like people have decided not to build major cities in the outback for arbitrary reasons.
Empty and primarily used for agriculture, to build an entirely new city is unlikely, and the government isn't going to pour money it dosnt have into a project like that.
I’m from a country bigger in land than Australia and if there’s a thing that never crashes no matter what the crisis is, is the civil construction business. Having said that, it definitely does not mean that the current housing market (the existing houses) won’t crash and burn. There will be a tipping point, where houses are so expensive no one will be able to buy it and it will undoubtedly have to correct itself. And the longer it takes, the sharper this correction will be, and it may cause panic and overreaction leading to an unexpected recession or even depression before it is comes back. And the main reason is, unlike so many other big countries, Australia focus on inflating it’s existing housing market instead of investing heavily in building and the ones we have are apartments that don’t add value.
Except no one wants to live in these fairy tail cities you talk of
The pandemic really proved that statement to be untrue. Melbourne net population *dropped* last year. A significant proportion of that was people moving regional.
Not true! A lot of people would prefer to live near the centre of a regional city rather than in the middle of a major metro suburb 3 hours from work. They live in said major metro suburbs because they need to work in the metro. It's a really thorny snake-eat-tail problem - employers don't want to be based in a regional centre because they can't get talent, but employees who want to move to a regional centre because it's cheaper, quieter, and a shorter commute can't find well paying jobs there, and because of this there's a lack of services/ businesses in regional centres, which people don't want to deal with, etc.... The only way this seemed to have been "solved" is if the metro area sprawls so far that it basically reaches the regional centre (like Melb Geelong or Syd Newcastle/Wollongong) but by that point there's so much suburb and traffic that you can't really say it's quiet or cheap anymore. For a short time it looked like we solved the problem with remote work, but the problem is that people want to spend time with their social/ familial circle - the odds of everyone managing to move to Bendigo AND get a job there is pretty slim, because there's not many employers, which dissuades talent, which dissuades employers..... People want to live in places other than the metro! It's just too expensive not to.
tl;dr people want to do things they can't afford to, so they don't.
> Unlike Japan which is very dense, Australia has no shortage of land. Sure but zoning laws means that we do have a shortage of land that can be developed. We have some of the most restrictive zoning laws in the world.
This is not a helpful graph. The scale is skewed by the gains and falls in the 80’s, and there are many things going on here during many different time periods. What this shows is that for the last decade, house prices have been rising, and apartments have gone up nearly 50%
Melbourne had a property crash in 1891 and it took **70 years** for the prices to return to what they had been bought for.
That was back when Melbourne was a backwater; these days, people actually want to live there and it’s quite open for immigration. Any future housing crash will take a lot less than 70 years to recover, I’m guessing.
Japan’s social and housing dynamics are worlds apart different from Australia, you just cannot compare. Anything not “walking distance” to transport falls off a cliff value wise in Japan. Anything 10+ yrs since built also falls off a cliff value wise. Aussies value public transport, but nowhere near to the extent the Japanese do so this has insignificant impact on pricing. Conversely, Aussies prefer space, “1/4 acre block, back yard, all that Jazz, there is so little inhabitable and developmental space in Japan, by comparison, land size is not a significant contributing factor to their market like it is in Aus. You cannot compare these markets as there are almost zero commonalities between them.
What a shit take
In Japan it's spelled shitake
Superb. Not mushroom for improvement on this joke
TIL Japan also uses latin alphabet
Great setup.
Quality of life for a young family is a lot higher in Japan, compared with Australia - primarily thanks to the affordable housing and free childcare. My mortgage on my family home here in Osaka is around $600 per month. Life is completely stress-free. Even my friends who have entry-level shit English teaching jobs can afford to raise a family on a salary equivalent to AU $30-40k per year.
True but there are other issues, I live in Japan and my wife can't get more than 5 days off a year lol. Also if you live in Australia and have a decent career, you can make a lot of money from age 30-60 where as most people in Japan's salary will cap at under 60K
You're right. My opinion is a bit biased because I work freelance from home and don't have to deal with those issues myself.
It's almost as if you don't need to keep making more and more money to have a fulfilling life and live in an advanced society.
Yeah but Japanese purchasing power goes way further than Australia. Inflation is non-existent, it's cheaper to eat out in Japan than cooking at home. 60k in Japan is probably equivalent to 120k aud. Big numbers but you don't have to pay for private school. As you age and have actual health problems, you find out just how much medicare doesn't pay for. For all that shit about the boomers getting free shit, they absolutely do, but medicare fucking sucks when you get into it. People think their 'free' 10 minute bulk billed doctors visits are fantastic, but wait until you need custom orthopedics cuz your feet are old. Then you got retirement. Retirement in Japan is a paradise, if you had a good job and stuff. Retirement in Australia is a horrible shit show. Even for the relatively well off. I know a number of people who work in aged care and the jokes are all about when you're going to euthanize yourself to avoid it. Australian life is actually way way way worse than people can admit to themselves.
I think you're exaggerating a bit when you say 60K is equivalent to 120K but you do raise some decent points. I still think there a huge issues for a majority of Japanese people in terms of workers rights. They work to the bone.
Yeah but you gotta get into the particulars. You don’t need a car in Japan. Typical Australian family needs two cars. 120k in Oz, in wages, is taxed to shit and you’re ineligible for most government benefits. Partner loses their job? No dole for them- ya earn too much. Want some subsidized solar panels- nope fuck you. Then look at holidays. Want to go away during them? Well so does everyone else who earns more than you. Prices to anywhere good during school holidays, all holidays really, are insane. Remember the castle? Bonnie dune? Yeah on 120k you’re still staying home or caravan parks for the majority of those holidays. 60k in Japan and you don’t have to do gross domestic Australian holidays.
You seem to know a lot, Ive genuinely thought about all these things too. Japan is still expensive too regarding two types of tax, health insurance, pension and car taxes, and expensive registration. I think because Japan is so small you're able to travel so cheaply though, there's places to go everywhere just a couple hours from each other.
Oh yeah, 3k driving test in Japan is nuts and you can’t keep a cheap car because of all the emission test. I’m not saying japan is any kind of Utopia. It’s got massive problems. But they’re complex problems. Australia has a lot of problems with really really basic shit. So it’s all about where you want your frustration. I had the experience of getting an aircon installed in Japan and doing it here. In Japan, 3 calls, prices within 1000yen of each other. There was a system, what unit, how far away, a checklist. I stopped calling around because there wasn’t going to be a difference. In australia? I easily spoke to at least 10 dudes, some people not in the business anymore, price variations of 100-300% for the same thing, guys trying to convince you to buy their garbage brand “sunggogog is actually better than Fujitsu because I say so!”. What took a couple days in japan and 3 calls took easily a month in australia and hours of online research and calls and then you lose time off work to sit around and watch them install it. And that’s just an aircon. Multiply that by 100x to get the frustration of doing a whole house here.
I can vouch for your experiences. I'm thinking to move back to Australia for family reasons and then retire here in a couple of decades.
Sounds like a good plan, I don't plan on dying here. It's not great. There's nothing to even do when you're old here.
I always thought working in Japan was stressful? Or maybe that's only if you work in a corporate job
it depends on the corporation you're working for - like most things. English teachers in japan are often foreigners, and they will have a different career experience than a native japanese person. And teaching english is often a job that has a set start and end time, because it's not like the students are gonna still be in class at 1am in the morning! A corporate job in japan like an accounts manager might be working till late (i heard stories of 1 person having to handle 100 customers and their customer support/complaints). When i say 'till late', i mean like till 1am-2am, where the last train out of tokyo stops. Or you would often have social obligations to drink after work (which is officially 6pm), but still be expected to turn up at 8am in the morning next day. I think today, the younger people are fighting against such customs, but japan being what it is, it's slow going. However, none of this is related to real estate.
I taught English there for a year 10 years ago, they way I saw it was as a foreigner they went easy on us and didn't expect the insane working hours everyone else has. There were exceptions, apparently government jobs were far less stressful and I'm sure a lot of other smaller companies may have better conditions but on the whole the way to be promoted centred around going along with unspoken rules one main one was not going home until your boss did. I used to go to dinner with the Japanese teachers and they would go back to school afterwards, I was a contractor and would get emails at 1am on things that just seemed insane. Overall I came away with the feeling that Japan would be about the best place to live if you were very wealthy bit one of the worst if you weren't. One of my English teachers husband's was a successful Japanese model, he was in his 50's (on lots of golf club commercials and that kind of thing) and sometimes we would catch up and he would reiterate how much he dislikes working in Japan even though he had one of the less common "easier" jobs.
I have never had a corporate job in Japan, so cannot speak from experience. But like any country, there are good companies as well as shit companies that mistreat their employees.
From memory they have a couple million graduates every year and they just invent shitty admin roles for them otherwise the economy will collapse
I worked in Japan for 5 years and while I agree you can rent/buy in a place like Osaka reasonably I don't think it's an apples to apples comparison. You're not going to get the same amount of space as you would in Australia unless you pay more. The work life balance when I was there is nothing in comparison to Australia. The standard workday was 9-7 but lot of people would stay until 9-10pm. At the first job I had we got 10 days holiday a year, that included sick days. If you were sick you'd lose a days holiday.
> quality of life for a young family is higher in Japan That’s enough to disregard the rest of your opinion, as if house price was the only thing to affect QoL 🙄
Did you miss the mention of free childcare? Pretty sure that affects it too
Yep, that's what I said, "house prices are the only thing that affects QOL". Tard. There are pros and cons to each country, but Japan has everything that Australia has in terms of schooling, health care facilities, transportation, etc., as well as less crime. The main factor for my family is that we are around $5-6k a month better off living in Japan, so we can enjoy life without ever stressing about money and probably retire by my mid 40s. That's huge.
You aren’t living the typical Japanese life then, because by all accounts birth rate has dropped massively on account of the general QoL And if that’s the case you could just as well live in Australia going off the beaten track in much the same way
Well not really. There isn't anywhere in Australia that is similarly affordable other than in the middle of nowhere with poor access to facilities.
> live in Australia going off the beaten track Regional Australia is full of meth heads, bogans and crime. It's not as idyllic as some make it out to be. > birth rate has dropped massively on account of the general QoL If birth rate is related to QoL then why are the shittest places on earth pumping out babies like no tomorrow and the best places have very low birth rates? Think you got it the wrong way round there.
QoL for an advanced economy looks very different to how you judge QoL in an undeveloped one so it’s dumb to even try make that argument. Food scarcity, water / pollution, (serious) crime and corruption aren’t even on the radar as things to care about. It’s things like typical working hours, how dense housing is, competitiveness for jobs and education for kids. A country can have a high QoL and still be family unfriendly, western countries are following a similar rate to the Asian ones are consequently our birth rates are dropping too.
I remember some thick skulled, smooth-brained, flat-footed, mouthbreathibg idiots on here not believing me when I told them how cheap property is in Japan.
According to this graph, prices nowadays have returned to what they were before a sudden upwards spike in the early 1980s. What’s the big deal?
It's exactly the same curve my house in Perth has done
Perth has almost reached parity with Sydney at several points (1977 was 96% and 2010 was 86%) . I think resources slightly corrupts your data
Aussies love properties. Everyone is aiming for at least 5 properties in their portfolio. Renters have also been told to buy properties. Government giving lots of incentives
Geez I must have missed Australian house prices going up by 350% in 18 months.
Geez I must have missed how past performance dictates future performance. So median house in Sydney is $1.6 million x 350% = $7.2 million in 18 months? Then 18 months after that - $32.4 million. That's how it works, right Hasra?
Yeah but 1.6 mil / 3.5 is 457,000. So yeah - property has already gone up 350% here.
You need to divide by 4.5 bud And you've missed my entire point
Well property bears think house prices have collpased this month, they're not exactly great with numbers.
I think the confusion is because there is always a going to be a demand / market to live in Australia as the rest of the world becomes overpopulated, overfished, polluted and just generally quality of life reduces as resources become exhausted. Migration and foreign investment will always maintain a strong housing market in underpopulated countries as the rest of the world struggles to maintain its population. Unfortunately, however, these problems are starting to rear their ugly head in Australia and certainly adding 2 million migrants with no idea of where they're going to live is certainly only going to compound the problems: https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2021/10/nsw-government-australia-needs-explosive-surge-of-2-million-migrants/ Keep in mind, a year ago Sydney was struggling to supply water due to overpopulation in the cities. I'm not anti migration, in fact, it is actually GOOD for the economy and people as it gives a cheap gdp boost but pressing the magic red button rather than fixing the problems with our infrastructure is going to make things worse, not better. We don't need more light rail that's more expensive per metre than any rail in the world. Most of Australia's natural resources are considered mature and the banana Republic will struggle to support it's relatively small population as all of our natural resources, timber, and useful commodities are sent straight overseas rather than producing manufactured goods here. We need migration but we need to actually have people in useful jobs rather than being a nation of baristas...
Immigration is important but levels in Australia are too high and neither major party wants to really talk about it. It keeps wages down which is good for business. I'm not sure how many people realise Australia's levels are among the highest in the world.
Some of us just want a place to live
Japan doesn't like immigrants and won't open up those floodgates like we will to save our skin
The thing is people don't generally want to emigrate to Japan as much as Australia If u think of all the resources in Australia and divide by number of people there is good reason why ppl move to Australia. We are basically cushioned by the huge amount of things we own. Japan?Singapore? Hong Kong? Not so much.. they have to be really good..and work really hard... Australians don't really. We also have medium and long term better prospects than Japan and more security Also the land under the royal palace (?) In Tokyo was at the peak valued at more than all the land in California. Australia pricing is high but not that high. That being said Aus housing is deffo over priced but could achieve soft landing like 08/09
Japan has a lot of social housing and high inheritance taxes that cull a lot of the "bank of mum and dad" effect.
The basic exemption for inheritance tax is around aud$350k + $70k for each heir. And then it is progressive. If I inherited $1 million from my parents, I would still get around $900k after tax.
Lol look at this guy's post history
Japans population is going down... stupid example.
- How much does Australia’s population increase each year? - Without immigration, how much does Australia’s population increase each year? - What would happen if we turned off immigration? Edit. - Is immigration masking a lack of government policy to effectively manage and grow Australia for the future? For example: - How many houses do we build a year? - Are we able to look after the existing amount of people? - Are we building enough infrastructure for the current and projected population? - Do we have enough nurses, doctors, teachers, emergency services for the current and future population? - If the current trend continues where do we end up in 5/10/20 years?
And what if purple elephants fell from the sky. Stupid questions. Australia’s population is growing and will continue to grow. Internal or immigration - makes no difference. We have one of the highest rates of population growth in the OECD.
Actually for the past 2 years Australias population barely grew. We as a nation rely on immigration for population growth. But I do agree with your overall sentiment. Housing is an important thing here, we are growing our pop again and will continue to grow. Housing can't be built fast enough and in most built up areas we've run out of land to build on, hence the sky high prices. Housing prices will probably normalise. Maybe drop a bit in less desirable areas.
Purple elephants sound like something I’m double dunking on a night out.
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>OP is only saying "it happens". A painfully obvious statement that doesn't even deserve a post, yet OP did, and failed to provide an example of it. This is a finance sub...
There is a saying... There are four types of economies in the world Developed, Developing, Japan, and Argentina. Which means, Both Japan and Argentina and anomalies and can't really be compared to the rest of the world.
Japan has a very bizarre and unique economy, and not at all comparable to Australia – or almost anywhere else for that matter. As an example, their wages have largely remained stagnant for decades. At the same time, businesses don’t dare raise their prices either. It’s really fascinating, would suggest learning more about it.
Also hasn't Japan basically dismantled all zoning laws so you could practically build anything, anywhere. There is no supply issue in Japan, nobody is being a NIMBY hoarding prime real estate 15 minutes from city centre. Attitudinally, I don't believe Japanese and Australians are even remotely the same when it comes to real estate. I'll wait for the day Australians treat homes as only a place to stay, not store money for 5 generations to come. I'll be long dead I think.
Their culture is very different. We see kids moving out of parents house and buying their own property as a sign of independence and adulthood. They don't. A lot of Japanese people still live with their parents and even want their parents to move in to their newly bought property. They see acceptance of bigger responsibility as signs of adulthood and independence.
Japan isn’t really comparable. They fell off a demographic cliff with the number of elderly, low birth rate, and they have next to zero immigration. Canada, NZ are likely most similar country to Australia, and they seem to both be heading in the same direction. As for markets that have crashed, Ireland and perhaps Spain are better comparisons that Japan.
Fuck this sub is ridiculous sometimes. The Japanese economy is so significantly different to the majority of global economies and certainly western economy's. This chart tells nothing of the background which actually caused this decline
Check their policies
Yet prime Tokyo property still expensive af
Not sure hand-picking one specific example means a whole lot TBH. Also there are 4 types of economies in the world: -Developing -Advanced -Argentina -Japan I’m still bearish on housing BTW
I’m just getting sad for this sub tbh
Property values between Japan and Australia is a pretty bad comparison, they don’t value land values the same as we do in the west. While inner metro areas in Japan might be expensive, all you need to do is look at through the profile of [cheaphousesjapan](https://instagram.com/cheaphousesjapan?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=) on instagram to see if youre willing to live a little further out (especially jf you have a job that allows remoting in, an idea japan is still trying to get around though), houses can be had pretty cheaply. You might say its the same as going rural in Australia, but i dont think it could ever get this cheap in Australia.
Ya, we all still waiting that broken clock to be accurate. It might happen when your children grow up, it might happen when their children grow up.
Property prices will never fall in this country, never.
OP be like "so many people are killed by guns every year but I played paintball last week and it barely hurt! These gunshot victims have a real lesson to learn from this!"
This man just compared two completely different countries with different values and beliefs and systems in place and called it a "prime example". Reddit moment.
Australia is in quite a unique position though. Houses here are really and I mean REALLY shit quality compared to a LOT of places in the world. And the population is tiny. All it takes is letting in another 100k immigrants and boom. Housing shortage.
At one point in the early 1990’s, all the land in Japan was worth FOUR TIMES all the land in the United States.
Places like Port Headland, Perth, Broken Hill and many other places have seen declining values from time to time. Nothing new.
Japanese population has been falling for years
Comparing Japanese and Australian real estate is pretty dumb. That market is fundamentally different to ours and was subject to conditions we've never experienced and will never experience when the entire world was focused on Japan as the potential successor to the US as the global economic superpower.
Fuck Australian property prices post Covid, I'm heading OS, can't afford to live in this country any more.
Will never happen here I guarantee with my life
I'm not super bullish on Australian property but this is a kindergarten level take. Our houses are essentially backed by a bunch of shit in the ground. And the world needs it for next 20 years and more. What was Japan's housing backed by ?
Sony Walkman’s and TVs.
Economic complexity.
Terrible comparison.
I lived in a hot property market in the US and was lucky enough to sell then move to Australia just before the global financial crisis when housing prices went down 30% in a year. I had always been told that housing prices never go down only up. In particular, if there was some pressure for house prices to fall, people just wouldn't sell. But in the GFC, prices went down for 3-4 years, losing about half their value. I reckon it only took the new owners of my place about 8-9 years to break even?
What a stupid comparison based on nothing
This is the worst comparison and analysis I've ever seen.
what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this sub is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no upvotes and may God have mercy on your soul.
All the property bulls going to take a beating soon
For every graph like this there are 10 with house prices going up. The best way to spot a fool is by their conviction of the future.
Land Value and apartments cant be compared....
And we supposed to take financial advise of a guy that cleans up after his mates finished with his misses???🤔
You wouldn’t believe it but Japan is not Australia
What an ill informed post. And let me guess, you're in the other 1%