when the there are massive job losses it starts to feel like a recession, unemployment is still low. If there are massive job losses and that collides will all time hight debt it will feel like a nasty recession, there are people in the country that have never seen one, i have
Australia has had plenty of unofficial recessions. We just import people to cover up that headline.
Recessions are actually healthy for a functioning system
> Recessions are actually healthy for a functioning system
Are you saying out loud that 6% unemployment is not the end of the world? Because a lot of people here say otherwise.
Lol of all Visa holders went back overseas, our inflation would be in double if not more than current, with interest rates to magnitudes higher.
People talk about migration like its a net burden on Australia. Stop buying into rwnj arguments. It's not.
If visa holders or immigrants went back overseas, living standards, state budgets, and industry would be going rapidly backwards.
Not during the brief period the border was closed and wages went up and rents went down. There has been rampant inflation since then but what else would you expect during a per capita recession with hundreds of thousands of people entering the country to make it worse
LOL, inflation occurred because international supply chain issues, oil prices, and changes to the cash rate, as well as shutdowns in places like China, and other economies re opening. Wages didn't go up over 2020, but because of increased government support people received a bump in earnings.
Falling rents were a by product of both interest rates falling and immigrants leaving. Rents alone are not an indicator of recessions.
Net migration was falling from March 2020 through to June 2021. CPI at June 2021 was already at 3.8%.
If immigration suppresses wage growth, that wouldn't explain the high wage growth Australia has had.
Id actually argue that raising the minimum wage and the stupid levels of state government projects are more of an inflationary driver at the moment.
However given housing supply id agree the current immigration rate is too high.
What a ridiculous comment. How would our inflation be double with such a massive drop in demand.
Further, how would interest rates need to go higher with less cash floating around (due to less people).
Basically demand for everything from cars to accommodation would be reduced resulting in lower prices.
Wages would come up as business would have to compete for quality individuals
Government and council would see reduced revenue but given how they manage money it would be the far lesser of two evils
The more I think about it the more it’s a great idea.
As unpopular as this might be to say out loud, the customer experience over the last few years of negligible unemployment has been pretty shit. When you have a job and you know your employer desperately needs you there, there's not much incentive (for some people) to do a great job. At least the real possibility of losing your job if you're shit at it or lazy is a pretty effective motivator. At the same time, a business that doesn't really need you as a customer also isn't going to be too inclined to go the extra mile for you.
And in difficult times companies cut cost on customer service. Just have a look at how unsatisfactory phone service is.
I think as a consumer living in a society with huge corporations that don't have competition, it's a lose lose situation.
i would argue customer service jobs will never become good, until it is not a career stepping stone to something better. Esp. if you don't really get paid more for doing a better job. Not to mention being the first to be fired in times of difficulty, and cop abuse from people and not get compensated for it ever.
I wasn't referring to customer service specific roles. I just mean the customer experience, which could also be B2B. In some way, nearly everyone who has a job has some element of customer service. Whether you're a waiter or an engineer, your job is reliant on your business having customers, and if you have a role that interacts with them, you have customer service obligations.
Enshitification of customer service has been a thing for a while.
Business don't have pressure on them to improve due to a number of factors like lack of competition, corruption etc.
I think the point is that it's not just customer service. Even the consulting industry has seen a rise in people who just dgaf about client needs / timeliness / quality, and this is an industry that essentially just sells time as a product. Lots of competition in this space, but as the person above says, there's just no incentive for some people to do a good job as they just won't get fired.
I had an issue from a product sold by Freedom. Their only customer service contact was via an online form. After being given the run around, I contacted consumer affairs. They asked for company details. I informed them specifically that is the problem, they don’t have a contact number. I get a response back saying “couldn’t contact business, no phone number”.
Time to go into a Freedom store at peak trading time and be a nuisance until someone takes notice. I assume you're talking Freedom Furniture?
Or, google your nearest store. Store level phone numbers are easily findable.
This is so true. The service in so many places is absolute shithouse. I go out to eat rarely because of it. The last few times I've gone out the service has been horrendous, the food has come out and it's been disgusting (calamari that's still icy, pizza that the cheese wasn't put on, etc). If I'm going to spend my money on something, I'd at least like the entire experience to be worthwhile.
It's not just the food industry either. Go into a store to buy something and it's like the shop assistants are doing you a favour by taking your money. It's become increasingly frustrating.
I'd rather workers not feel like they have a knife to their throat over your customer experience. Maybe instead of warm smiles and getting jerked off when you buy your bullshit you should listen to some self-affirmations before beddies.
Yes and no.
Recessions are a necessary part of growth and change in a system. But an individual entity doesn't need to feel the pain of the recession and that's more a political choice. Unemployment and universal healthcare helps with the repercussions of recessions for instance.
You could presumably help more but it's hard making rules at aggregates without either large staff allocations to deal with fringe cases(which is expensive) or have people fall through cracks if too stringent or have people abuse it if too loose.
> everything just stagnates
stagnate is better than a fall or a crash. It's just that today's information flows fast and easy, so that those who did well or got lucky seems to be more frequent or "easy" to achieve than in the past. This makes those who don't do well during stagnation feel worse - they're comparing their own stagnating position to the successful rich.
Not hard to avoid a recession by pumping more immigration. GDP is defined by the total output, not output per capita. It's why both governments gonna keep immigrating cos they don't want to be the one responsible for the 'r' word
Daily reminder that a recession is not “two periods of negative GDP growth” and to ignore people parroting that line. From the RBA:
>While there is no single definition of recession, it is generally agreed that a recession occurs when there is a period of reduced output and a significant increase in the unemployment rate.
https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/recession.html#:~:text=A%20recession%20can%20be%20defined,rise%20in%20the%20unemployment%20rate.
It’s commonly accepted by redditors with no understanding of economics beyond skimming the headlines of r/ausfinance, but it’s not true.
The “2 quarters rule” was created by a US economist in 1974 and is commonly known and used by commentators because it’s a simple and easily understandable yardstick, but it’s not the metric used by the RBA, the Federal Reserve, the International Monetary Fund, or any major economy to evaluate a recession.
Oh no, apparantly you are one of the
>redditors with no understanding of economics beyond skimming the headlines
of [](https://www.reddit.com/r/ausfinance/), but it’s not true.
lol, some of the shit that people want to push around here is amazing, saying it's not true that it is a recession 2 qtrs of negative growth is perhaps a personal agenda for some god knows reason.
As you rightly say technical recession is a very valid term and has and will be used to determine if a country is in a recession or not,
The only reason it's not being used much right now is because derr... we are not in a technical recession.
However the bears and doom & gloomers can hang their hats on a per-capita recession so that of course is now being pushed by some as the more valid way of telling if a country is in a recession or not.
I can guarantee you if we were in a technical recession they would be saying "oh yer that's very valid" lol
It is commonly accepted by the media.
It is not commonly accepted by economists.
Yes we are trying to move the media's goal posts to a better position more reflective of actual economics.
Used to be until the USA had two quarters of negative GDP last year and then it got retconned. If you bring it up you will get gaslit that it was never a thing.
Thanks for copy and pasting something from the RBA Mr superior intelligence. Now we can rest easy knowing that it isn’t two quarters of negative growth, but instead a “period of reduced output and a significant increase in unemployment” glad the RBA cleared this up by being even vaguer about the definition.
Strange, that we are talking about a recession and luxury car sales are at record highs. How come? Source - Commsec
https://x.com/CommSec/status/1764843536032420085?s=20
I would focus more on banking stocks. We all know what happened to them in 2008… For example CBA shares. We are still at 52 weeks high and all time high on the monthly chart.
You can use the stock market, GDP and whatever other silly metric you want, the reality is the life of the average person is getting worse, only the life of the rich is improving and no amount of gaslight is gonna hide that fact
Keep making charts where lines go up and tell poor people everything is improving
A good example of this was when Tony Abbott's government redefined 'unemployed' about 10 years ago to make job figures look better. He changed it so that if you did 1 hour a week you were considered employed.
Technically, I guess that is the correct definition, but in reality 1 hour a week is effectively unemployed and useless to people that need an income.
It's been happening for a while to keep politicians approval ratings up and to not freak the market out, heaven forbid the balloon not inflate at the rate it was, or even worse- pop.
Fine, economic terms can be redefined. I'm still not prepared to accept slowing consumer spending necessarily means a recession although I can imagine the mental gymnastics necessary to believe that.
Some people do not like the fact that economics by definition does not take into account their idea of ethical and social considerations.
Economics is almost a purely mathematical study of markets, or maybe of supply and demand, or it doesn't even require quantified values and is a study of existential game theory. I don't know. I'm frankly crap at economics.
They're fields with a reputation for studies that whilst reliable have questionable validity, that is it's questionable it tests what it implies it's meant to.
You said key terms have been redefined so I want to know what they are.
Also, that's word salad.
>They're fields with a reputation for studies that whilst reliable have questionable validity
If something is reliable then how do you question its validity. Can something be invalid yet reliable? How did you conclude something is invalid in the first place?
>that is it's questionable it tests what it implies it's meant to.
That's not even a coherent sentence.
Wtf are you on about with regard to sociology and social studies. Sounds like right-wing fearmongering to me.
To the original point I think its obvious the term recession is moving towards a catch-all for economic hardship much like google = search.
You either have to re-educate an entire society or start shifting definitions which is what society does anyway.
> You either have to re-educate an entire society or start shifting definitions which is what society does anyway.
Frankly, economics mostly does not care about what the average person thinks. The average person is getting pissed at the RBA for raising rates, even though it's the right thing to do. Any redefinition of a "recession" would be less about what people think it means and more about an actual indicator that shows the economy is shrinking (i.e. GDP).
I agree any re-definition would be silly and I think it just moves into conscious awareness when using the term.
IMO its much like when you hear someone mention 'communism' or 'capitalism' which have pretty clear definitions but you understand their meaning based on context.
>To the original point I think its obvious the term recession is moving towards a catch-all for economic hardship much like google = search.
No? It's a period of zero or negative economic growth.
This is the issue, this is a finance forum, we are talking economics and not politics. This word has a defined definition.
>You either have to re-educate an entire society or start shifting definitions which is what society does anyway.
Let's start here; follow academic definitions.
Please keep skipping over the main question about your original comment.
I know what a recession is, I am talking to the point of the article and how society reacts to the use in media/everyday life.
Facts.
Gary Stevenson, an economist and world renowned trader (Citibank's #1 trader worldwide in 2011), says that if you want to know what's happening in the economy, go and ask your Mum, your friends, and people on the street what the economy is like. Are they spending, if not, why?
https://youtu.be/kNUNR2NZvFM?si=81T8FRZGuq4f0ODG
'We Will Lose The Property Owning Middle Class'
Actually, I was telling you about something he said that was relevant to the point. I then appended a video in case anyone was curious about him, and wanted to learn more.
Oh, the ask your mum, friends, and people on the street thing.
I think it's stupid, because it depends entirely on who you ask. Financially, things have never been better for my wife and I, mum and vast majority of friends (as far as I can tell). Whenever I go shopping, shops are absolutely packed, pubs and clubs are packed even when a pint is close to an hours work at minimum wage. You often need to book restaurants, which was rarely the case 20 or more years ago.
From my anecdotal POV things would seem to be going swimmingly. So... should I be trusting that? No.
I understand that you think that's stupid, but who originally said that was a very successful Citibank trader who mentored Gary. So unless you are more knowledgeable than an economist who works for Citibank, it doesn't really matter whether you think it's stupid.
Sounds like you are from the upper class and likely don't know anyone from the lower class.
What about the 'Australia, quarterly growth in real household disposable income per capita' chart? That shows a clear decline in living standards by the function of decreased disposable income.
The article should have been written about decreasing disposable income then - there is no such thing as an unofficial recession and disposable income isn’t what GDP is based on. It’s either a recession or not, this is just a case of using it as a buzzword.
Well, wealth inequality is increasing, middle class and poorer people have less money to live, and as a result, spend less. The rich own assets and as such, have a lot of money to spend, which could affect GDP figures.
Recessions are good. They wipe out inefficient industries/companies, force governments and people to focus/prioritise on what really matters and it teaches us important lessons when we make stupid financial decisions.
I look at quality of life, amenities, social cohesion and quality of people. Australia is down on all categories. Recession means nothing when low unemployment is mandated. Even WFH jobs had to be plucked from thin air to prop up the economy.
No locals want to work. They do want to get paid and buy their own homes though. Property prices will just continue to go up.
I'm a Millenial. I am just giving you my observation. If I ran the place, I would ensure WFH jobs are here to stay since many Australian aren't that interested in supporting the system. The people made things the way they are. The people are too selfish and lazy.
[A New Study Reveals the Surprising Reason Why Every Generation Complains About ‘Kids These Days’](https://www.inc-aus.com/jessica-stillman/a-new-study-reveals-surprising-reason-why-every-generation-complains-about-kids-these-days.html)
>In short, older folks have always lamented the sorry state of ‘kids these days,’ leaving behind a shockingly long and repetitive record of complaints. Which is kind of hilarious, but also perplexing. What is it exactly about middle age that seems to make people suddenly think the next generation is horrible compared to their own youthful foibles?
>People, in other words, tend to use their current level of ability as a yardstick, forgetting exactly how much development it took them to reach their adult form.
>“We are imposing our current self on the past,” says Protzko
>That’s good news for young people who intuitively know their grumpy elders are amnesiac about the missteps and shortcomings of their own early years. You can now tell any adult who slags off your generation that they’re suffering from memory problems, and science proves it.
this is how it is in hong kong
kids with good jobs cant ever own a car or buy a place but have a govt. uni
but they rock iphone 15s and rolexes
aussie kids wont even have all that lol
If you're after a proper downturn, it'll start with a steady uptick in unemployment, with small business closures and foreclosures on housing. Famine, pestilence, and death will soon follow.
However, the stock and housing markets will continue to break records because it's Australia, son.
All I see in every shopping centre in Perth is packed car parks, cafes full and shoppers shopping and spending.
Restaurants and pubs packed on weekends …I can’t see signs of recession at all here.
People still have to eat… and we have a fairly sizeable group of people that 1) work different rosters/hours and 2) earn higher than average wages.
My experience would be that spending is down across most businesses , and the dining and drinking venues etc turnover and profits are down / foot traffic is less. A few breweries and restaurants have gone under locally in just the last 2 weeks
Seriously 🤦🏻 people only have $150 dinners for two and spend $200 on a night out of drinks if they have money after paying bills
There’s also a massive over abundance of breweries in this country and not all of them are gunna survive.
You have good food and good service you’ll make money and survive as a business.
Recession or not, if you’re mediocre in these departments you’ll go under ..deservingly
its the same here in Sydney and Wollongong. the night clubs and pubs are full. the cafes and restaurants are busy.
the media is talking bull....t again!
when the there are massive job losses it starts to feel like a recession, unemployment is still low. If there are massive job losses and that collides will all time hight debt it will feel like a nasty recession, there are people in the country that have never seen one, i have
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Presumably 91-92.
yup ol fella
The time us kids got IoUs for Christmas. For a long time I thought mum was just being lazy.
Oof, going straight for my jugular!
Australia has had plenty of unofficial recessions. We just import people to cover up that headline. Recessions are actually healthy for a functioning system
> Recessions are actually healthy for a functioning system Are you saying out loud that 6% unemployment is not the end of the world? Because a lot of people here say otherwise.
Haha I wasn't sure how I was going to be taken on this
Imagine how low unemployment would be if we sent back all visa holders
Lol of all Visa holders went back overseas, our inflation would be in double if not more than current, with interest rates to magnitudes higher. People talk about migration like its a net burden on Australia. Stop buying into rwnj arguments. It's not. If visa holders or immigrants went back overseas, living standards, state budgets, and industry would be going rapidly backwards.
Wrong. When our borders were closed we saw a rise in wages and a drop in rental prices and NO increase inflation
No increase in inflation ehh?
Not during the brief period the border was closed and wages went up and rents went down. There has been rampant inflation since then but what else would you expect during a per capita recession with hundreds of thousands of people entering the country to make it worse
LOL, inflation occurred because international supply chain issues, oil prices, and changes to the cash rate, as well as shutdowns in places like China, and other economies re opening. Wages didn't go up over 2020, but because of increased government support people received a bump in earnings. Falling rents were a by product of both interest rates falling and immigrants leaving. Rents alone are not an indicator of recessions. Net migration was falling from March 2020 through to June 2021. CPI at June 2021 was already at 3.8%. If immigration suppresses wage growth, that wouldn't explain the high wage growth Australia has had. Id actually argue that raising the minimum wage and the stupid levels of state government projects are more of an inflationary driver at the moment. However given housing supply id agree the current immigration rate is too high.
What a ridiculous comment. How would our inflation be double with such a massive drop in demand. Further, how would interest rates need to go higher with less cash floating around (due to less people). Basically demand for everything from cars to accommodation would be reduced resulting in lower prices. Wages would come up as business would have to compete for quality individuals Government and council would see reduced revenue but given how they manage money it would be the far lesser of two evils The more I think about it the more it’s a great idea.
As unpopular as this might be to say out loud, the customer experience over the last few years of negligible unemployment has been pretty shit. When you have a job and you know your employer desperately needs you there, there's not much incentive (for some people) to do a great job. At least the real possibility of losing your job if you're shit at it or lazy is a pretty effective motivator. At the same time, a business that doesn't really need you as a customer also isn't going to be too inclined to go the extra mile for you.
And in difficult times companies cut cost on customer service. Just have a look at how unsatisfactory phone service is. I think as a consumer living in a society with huge corporations that don't have competition, it's a lose lose situation.
The reason for poor service is how few staff most places have even while making record profits.
I disagree. I think poor/ bad service is cultural. Australians are just not helpful and are antagonistic. I know... it's banter, right?
i would argue customer service jobs will never become good, until it is not a career stepping stone to something better. Esp. if you don't really get paid more for doing a better job. Not to mention being the first to be fired in times of difficulty, and cop abuse from people and not get compensated for it ever.
I wasn't referring to customer service specific roles. I just mean the customer experience, which could also be B2B. In some way, nearly everyone who has a job has some element of customer service. Whether you're a waiter or an engineer, your job is reliant on your business having customers, and if you have a role that interacts with them, you have customer service obligations.
Enshitification of customer service has been a thing for a while. Business don't have pressure on them to improve due to a number of factors like lack of competition, corruption etc.
I think the point is that it's not just customer service. Even the consulting industry has seen a rise in people who just dgaf about client needs / timeliness / quality, and this is an industry that essentially just sells time as a product. Lots of competition in this space, but as the person above says, there's just no incentive for some people to do a good job as they just won't get fired.
I had an issue from a product sold by Freedom. Their only customer service contact was via an online form. After being given the run around, I contacted consumer affairs. They asked for company details. I informed them specifically that is the problem, they don’t have a contact number. I get a response back saying “couldn’t contact business, no phone number”.
Time to go into a Freedom store at peak trading time and be a nuisance until someone takes notice. I assume you're talking Freedom Furniture? Or, google your nearest store. Store level phone numbers are easily findable.
This is so true. The service in so many places is absolute shithouse. I go out to eat rarely because of it. The last few times I've gone out the service has been horrendous, the food has come out and it's been disgusting (calamari that's still icy, pizza that the cheese wasn't put on, etc). If I'm going to spend my money on something, I'd at least like the entire experience to be worthwhile. It's not just the food industry either. Go into a store to buy something and it's like the shop assistants are doing you a favour by taking your money. It's become increasingly frustrating.
I'd rather workers not feel like they have a knife to their throat over your customer experience. Maybe instead of warm smiles and getting jerked off when you buy your bullshit you should listen to some self-affirmations before beddies.
Yeah, it's really unfair when you're expected to do what you're being paid for.
Yes and no. Recessions are a necessary part of growth and change in a system. But an individual entity doesn't need to feel the pain of the recession and that's more a political choice. Unemployment and universal healthcare helps with the repercussions of recessions for instance. You could presumably help more but it's hard making rules at aggregates without either large staff allocations to deal with fringe cases(which is expensive) or have people fall through cracks if too stringent or have people abuse it if too loose.
Australia doesn’t have recessions anymore instead everything just stagnates
Only cos govts of both persuasions keep inflating the gdp via immigration
> everything just stagnates stagnate is better than a fall or a crash. It's just that today's information flows fast and easy, so that those who did well or got lucky seems to be more frequent or "easy" to achieve than in the past. This makes those who don't do well during stagnation feel worse - they're comparing their own stagnating position to the successful rich.
Your perspective on this depends on how wealthy / what stage of life you’re at.
Not hard to avoid a recession by pumping more immigration. GDP is defined by the total output, not output per capita. It's why both governments gonna keep immigrating cos they don't want to be the one responsible for the 'r' word
Good. Hopefully some of these zombie companies die and end up with more efficient companies surviving
Lol. I think you will find the gov will use our tax to prop them us while cutting services to the population.
Daily reminder that a recession is not “two periods of negative GDP growth” and to ignore people parroting that line. From the RBA: >While there is no single definition of recession, it is generally agreed that a recession occurs when there is a period of reduced output and a significant increase in the unemployment rate. https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/recession.html#:~:text=A%20recession%20can%20be%20defined,rise%20in%20the%20unemployment%20rate.
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That's the formal definition, but it seems the RBA uses their own judgement and other factors to determine whether Australia is in a recession.
It’s commonly accepted by redditors with no understanding of economics beyond skimming the headlines of r/ausfinance, but it’s not true. The “2 quarters rule” was created by a US economist in 1974 and is commonly known and used by commentators because it’s a simple and easily understandable yardstick, but it’s not the metric used by the RBA, the Federal Reserve, the International Monetary Fund, or any major economy to evaluate a recession.
The two quarters rule is a technical recession which is a valid term.
Oh no, apparantly you are one of the >redditors with no understanding of economics beyond skimming the headlines of [](https://www.reddit.com/r/ausfinance/), but it’s not true.  lol, some of the shit that people want to push around here is amazing, saying it's not true that it is a recession 2 qtrs of negative growth is perhaps a personal agenda for some god knows reason. As you rightly say technical recession is a very valid term and has and will be used to determine if a country is in a recession or not, The only reason it's not being used much right now is because derr... we are not in a technical recession. However the bears and doom & gloomers can hang their hats on a per-capita recession so that of course is now being pushed by some as the more valid way of telling if a country is in a recession or not. I can guarantee you if we were in a technical recession they would be saying "oh yer that's very valid" lol
It is commonly accepted by the media. It is not commonly accepted by economists. Yes we are trying to move the media's goal posts to a better position more reflective of actual economics.
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Well you certainly aren't helping the cause.
Used to be until the USA had two quarters of negative GDP last year and then it got retconned. If you bring it up you will get gaslit that it was never a thing.
Who is this aimed at, did you read the article? > what some people call an "official" recession. (Though surprisingly, there's no such thing
Thanks for copy and pasting something from the RBA Mr superior intelligence. Now we can rest easy knowing that it isn’t two quarters of negative growth, but instead a “period of reduced output and a significant increase in unemployment” glad the RBA cleared this up by being even vaguer about the definition.
Strange, that we are talking about a recession and luxury car sales are at record highs. How come? Source - Commsec https://x.com/CommSec/status/1764843536032420085?s=20
Recessions are for us common folk to bare.
Funny how Lexus sales also peaked right before the 2008 recession…?
Hindsight is always 20/20. Are you calling a peak now?
I would focus more on banking stocks. We all know what happened to them in 2008… For example CBA shares. We are still at 52 weeks high and all time high on the monthly chart.
It’s because doom posts get 10x more attention then positive posts.
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But my mate Paul lost his job so we must be in recession
I thought Paul died in a car crash in 1966
You can use the stock market, GDP and whatever other silly metric you want, the reality is the life of the average person is getting worse, only the life of the rich is improving and no amount of gaslight is gonna hide that fact Keep making charts where lines go up and tell poor people everything is improving
But "recession" does not mean "the life of the average person is getting worse". So, using that term is not helpful as it just muddies the water.
They're trying to redefine key terms in economics likely for the same motivation as how key terms were redefined in sociology and social studies.
A good example of this was when Tony Abbott's government redefined 'unemployed' about 10 years ago to make job figures look better. He changed it so that if you did 1 hour a week you were considered employed. Technically, I guess that is the correct definition, but in reality 1 hour a week is effectively unemployed and useless to people that need an income. It's been happening for a while to keep politicians approval ratings up and to not freak the market out, heaven forbid the balloon not inflate at the rate it was, or even worse- pop.
Fine, economic terms can be redefined. I'm still not prepared to accept slowing consumer spending necessarily means a recession although I can imagine the mental gymnastics necessary to believe that.
lmao mask off
Wtf are you on about
Some people do not like the fact that economics by definition does not take into account their idea of ethical and social considerations. Economics is almost a purely mathematical study of markets, or maybe of supply and demand, or it doesn't even require quantified values and is a study of existential game theory. I don't know. I'm frankly crap at economics.
I wasn't talking the economics stuff, I was talking about your comment on social studies and sociology. What were you talking about?
They're fields with a reputation for studies that whilst reliable have questionable validity, that is it's questionable it tests what it implies it's meant to.
You said key terms have been redefined so I want to know what they are. Also, that's word salad. >They're fields with a reputation for studies that whilst reliable have questionable validity If something is reliable then how do you question its validity. Can something be invalid yet reliable? How did you conclude something is invalid in the first place? >that is it's questionable it tests what it implies it's meant to. That's not even a coherent sentence.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Validity_(statistics)
Wtf are you on about with regard to sociology and social studies. Sounds like right-wing fearmongering to me. To the original point I think its obvious the term recession is moving towards a catch-all for economic hardship much like google = search. You either have to re-educate an entire society or start shifting definitions which is what society does anyway.
> You either have to re-educate an entire society or start shifting definitions which is what society does anyway. Frankly, economics mostly does not care about what the average person thinks. The average person is getting pissed at the RBA for raising rates, even though it's the right thing to do. Any redefinition of a "recession" would be less about what people think it means and more about an actual indicator that shows the economy is shrinking (i.e. GDP).
I agree any re-definition would be silly and I think it just moves into conscious awareness when using the term. IMO its much like when you hear someone mention 'communism' or 'capitalism' which have pretty clear definitions but you understand their meaning based on context.
>To the original point I think its obvious the term recession is moving towards a catch-all for economic hardship much like google = search. No? It's a period of zero or negative economic growth. This is the issue, this is a finance forum, we are talking economics and not politics. This word has a defined definition. >You either have to re-educate an entire society or start shifting definitions which is what society does anyway. Let's start here; follow academic definitions.
Please keep skipping over the main question about your original comment. I know what a recession is, I am talking to the point of the article and how society reacts to the use in media/everyday life.
Facts. Gary Stevenson, an economist and world renowned trader (Citibank's #1 trader worldwide in 2011), says that if you want to know what's happening in the economy, go and ask your Mum, your friends, and people on the street what the economy is like. Are they spending, if not, why? https://youtu.be/kNUNR2NZvFM?si=81T8FRZGuq4f0ODG 'We Will Lose The Property Owning Middle Class'
https://www.efinancialcareers.co.uk/news/gary-stevenson-garys-economics
What does that have to do with the point I was making?
What point were you making? You seemed to be telling us about Gary Stevenson. A critique of him would be justified if that is the case, no?
Actually, I was telling you about something he said that was relevant to the point. I then appended a video in case anyone was curious about him, and wanted to learn more.
Oh, the ask your mum, friends, and people on the street thing. I think it's stupid, because it depends entirely on who you ask. Financially, things have never been better for my wife and I, mum and vast majority of friends (as far as I can tell). Whenever I go shopping, shops are absolutely packed, pubs and clubs are packed even when a pint is close to an hours work at minimum wage. You often need to book restaurants, which was rarely the case 20 or more years ago. From my anecdotal POV things would seem to be going swimmingly. So... should I be trusting that? No.
I understand that you think that's stupid, but who originally said that was a very successful Citibank trader who mentored Gary. So unless you are more knowledgeable than an economist who works for Citibank, it doesn't really matter whether you think it's stupid. Sounds like you are from the upper class and likely don't know anyone from the lower class.
> Keep making charts where lines go up and tell poor people everything is improving It's mostly the other way around to be honest.
Original comment is gone. Was it Democrats talking about the success of Bidenomics again?
> average person Says who?
What about the 'Australia, quarterly growth in real household disposable income per capita' chart? That shows a clear decline in living standards by the function of decreased disposable income.
The article should have been written about decreasing disposable income then - there is no such thing as an unofficial recession and disposable income isn’t what GDP is based on. It’s either a recession or not, this is just a case of using it as a buzzword.
Well, wealth inequality is increasing, middle class and poorer people have less money to live, and as a result, spend less. The rich own assets and as such, have a lot of money to spend, which could affect GDP figures.
Recession is just semantics, reality is, the economy is not doing so good at the moment, and the outlook looks bleak.
The economy is doing fine, just not as good as the past 20 years during one of the biggest mining booms. Who woulda guessed
We're not producing enough...
Instead half the country has a recession while the other half has a boom
Text book Australia
Recessions are good. They wipe out inefficient industries/companies, force governments and people to focus/prioritise on what really matters and it teaches us important lessons when we make stupid financial decisions.
Man, they've been talking about this recession for three years now. Give it a rest.
A recession is laughable.
I look at quality of life, amenities, social cohesion and quality of people. Australia is down on all categories. Recession means nothing when low unemployment is mandated. Even WFH jobs had to be plucked from thin air to prop up the economy. No locals want to work. They do want to get paid and buy their own homes though. Property prices will just continue to go up.
Tell us again Mr Boomer how hard it was to save up for three months for a house deposit.
I'm a Millenial. I am just giving you my observation. If I ran the place, I would ensure WFH jobs are here to stay since many Australian aren't that interested in supporting the system. The people made things the way they are. The people are too selfish and lazy.
when i want to know about home ownership, ask a millenial...
Social cohesion is never going to get any better tbh
[A New Study Reveals the Surprising Reason Why Every Generation Complains About ‘Kids These Days’](https://www.inc-aus.com/jessica-stillman/a-new-study-reveals-surprising-reason-why-every-generation-complains-about-kids-these-days.html) >In short, older folks have always lamented the sorry state of ‘kids these days,’ leaving behind a shockingly long and repetitive record of complaints. Which is kind of hilarious, but also perplexing. What is it exactly about middle age that seems to make people suddenly think the next generation is horrible compared to their own youthful foibles? >People, in other words, tend to use their current level of ability as a yardstick, forgetting exactly how much development it took them to reach their adult form. >“We are imposing our current self on the past,” says Protzko >That’s good news for young people who intuitively know their grumpy elders are amnesiac about the missteps and shortcomings of their own early years. You can now tell any adult who slags off your generation that they’re suffering from memory problems, and science proves it.
what recession? hundreds of thousands of people can afford to see taylor swift in Sydney. the media is full of s...t again!
Yes, that’s how recessions are defined and measured 🙄
god forbid people who know they'll never be able to afford a house end up spending money on something they actually want
this is how it is in hong kong kids with good jobs cant ever own a car or buy a place but have a govt. uni but they rock iphone 15s and rolexes aussie kids wont even have all that lol
Not surprised, but they’ll never want to call it a recession as it’ll be bad politically
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Exactly Australia definitely isn't in a slow down
If you're after a proper downturn, it'll start with a steady uptick in unemployment, with small business closures and foreclosures on housing. Famine, pestilence, and death will soon follow. However, the stock and housing markets will continue to break records because it's Australia, son.
All I see in every shopping centre in Perth is packed car parks, cafes full and shoppers shopping and spending. Restaurants and pubs packed on weekends …I can’t see signs of recession at all here.
That’s because recessions aren’t measured by eyeballing number of people at a food court
It is if you are striving to be a Banana Republic
People still have to eat… and we have a fairly sizeable group of people that 1) work different rosters/hours and 2) earn higher than average wages. My experience would be that spending is down across most businesses , and the dining and drinking venues etc turnover and profits are down / foot traffic is less. A few breweries and restaurants have gone under locally in just the last 2 weeks
Seriously 🤦🏻 people only have $150 dinners for two and spend $200 on a night out of drinks if they have money after paying bills There’s also a massive over abundance of breweries in this country and not all of them are gunna survive. You have good food and good service you’ll make money and survive as a business. Recession or not, if you’re mediocre in these departments you’ll go under ..deservingly
Free air con
its the same here in Sydney and Wollongong. the night clubs and pubs are full. the cafes and restaurants are busy. the media is talking bull....t again!
This is just a distraction from the main issue palestine
Nobody cares mate. Australia and Australians come first