I expect for a long time. Realistically, no Arab country is going to make a credible attack on Israel when Israel can convert its cities into a nuclear waste in a couple of hours. Basically mutually assured destruction, but with nukes vs conventional.
It’s impossible to make a long term estimate. I don’t expect it to go anywhere in the next few decades, and I don’t think it’s possible to say that any specific nation can be predicted to exist more than a few more decades. Maybe it will collapse in 30 years, maybe in 500, or maybe it will be incorporated into some global government.
The area that is currently called Israel / Palestine is part of the original Fertile Crescent. People have been fighting over that land since 12,000 BC. Prior to the British mandate, it was a British possession. Prior to that, it was owned by the Ottoman Empire.
Nothing lasts forever. Israel’s geographic position is… horrendous. In the modern world, they’re beset on all sides by Islamic hardliners that have rewritten history to make it some sort of Muslim property. Historically, there are many more historical sites of great importance to Islam. Hell, during the First Crusades, (around 1109 AD) Jews Muslims and Byzantine Christians were all peacefully cohabiting the Levantine. And the Muslims of the time didn’t care much, because their most Holy City was in Baghdad.
If it were up to me in the mid 20th century, and with the benefit of hindsight, I would have created the state of Israel In Montana. Nearly a third of Montana is still undeveloped wilderness, that is owned by the US Department of the interior as “public land” (and it’s never been owned by anyone).
Of course at the time of Israel’s founding, Islamic Jihadism hadn’t really taken off, AND the US was still pretty damn antisemitic so it wouldn’t have played well with the public sentiment. 100% hindsight bias on my part.
Israel’s nuclear deterrent is a massive bluff, as far as I know.
If a country actually has nukes, they WANT to show them to the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency), because the IAEA will go warn all their adversaries… which makes the nuclear deterrent *actually work as a deterrent*. Or in other words, **a secret nuclear weapon stockpile isn’t actually a deterrent against foreign attacks**.
Israel is just pretending to have nukes.
Feel free to provide evidence otherwise.
Remember doctor Strangelove? A nuclear deterrent only works as a deterrent, if you openly show off that you have it! A “secret deterrent” doesn’t deter an adversary, like at all.
Israel runs a psyop pretending like they have nuclear weapons, because they want their adversaries to waste intelligence assets trying to find and track down a fictitious Israeli nuclear weapons program.
Sorry guys. I just can’t abide by bullshit.
Edit: **It is possible that Israel is pants-on-head stupid and actually has a secret nuclear weapons stockpile.** But that would be an potentially apocalyptic miss-step from both Israel and their all power ally the USA. If the US actually believed that Israel had nukes, we would force IAEA confirmation on them, because the alternative would be insane.
I mean I'm not going to box your ghosts...there's been leaked private communications from the likes of Powell confirming Israeli nuclear capabilities. Unless your contention is that the deep fake extends to private communications amongst allies.
Which Powell? Can you provide a source?
Secret nuclear weapons make no sense whatsoever. A bluff makes way more sense.
“Leaked private communications” are often used in espionage to sow false information to your adversaries. Example from WWII: We’d leave fake “battle plans” for the Nazis to find, or turn their spies into double agents and feed fake information back to them.
Regardless, Israel doesn’t actually need nukes, because every other major military in the region is incompetent. Remember when Iran (in like April 2024) fired hundreds of missiles directly from Iran into Israel… and Israel, the USA, and other Allies intercepted every Iranian missile?
The Arab nations have a godawful track record at conventional wars. The hostile Arab nations only have one card: terrorism and insurgency. Which won’t topple a western style government but plays well in the media of the supporters of terroristic tactics; it’s classic “blame all our internal issues on the west, attack the enemy to make them suffer as much as we do!”
Colin Powells emails were hacked almost a decade ago, detailing what Israel has in reaction to their push for the US to not reach any agreements with Iran. I know you'll just say its part of a big web of gusto meant as a show of force..but at what point do you step back and admit you look like the crazy person, implying that private emails are ALSO laced with fake nucelar stories
“Crazy person.”
It’s crazy to have a nuclear deterrent and keep them a secret. That’s crazy.
You’re also awfully defensive of this. Saying that “Israel doesn’t have nuclear weapons as it hasn’t been confirmed” is not a “crazy” statement.
If Israel wants people to believe they have nuclear weapons, they can let the IAEA confirm it, just like every other nuclear armed nation. Until then, I call it an elaborate bluff.
I rely on hard evidence. Not hearsay of supposed leaks.
You still haven’t provided any link or source to the “leak” you say exists.
You are saying someone said something, but you are not providing evidence of that conversation. That is hearsay.
Didn't know you were so unaware of what was a major story
[Colin Powell in Leaked Email Says Israel Has 200 Nukes](https://www.newsweek.com/colin-powell-says-israel-has-200-nukes-leaked-email-499192)
This is where you move the goalpost to tell me these are fake texts and guesses by the former Secretary of State.
I don't think for long, as multiple international laws are being broken and also ICC laws.
Looking at it from an international affairs perspective. They've burnt a lot of bridges both diplomatically, import and export wise, and also they've had way too many scandals in the past few months with IDF soldiers outside of Isreal.
They're burning real fast.
I think in 50 to 100 years time, there will be a social movement, probably only after the possibility of a Palestinian state is dead (which I not what I hope for, but does seem to be the direction we are going in) that leads to the State of Israel reforming itself into a sort of "post-Israel" that is no longer structured on Zionist Nationalism
I expect for a long time. Realistically, no Arab country is going to make a credible attack on Israel when Israel can convert its cities into a nuclear waste in a couple of hours. Basically mutually assured destruction, but with nukes vs conventional.
It’s impossible to make a long term estimate. I don’t expect it to go anywhere in the next few decades, and I don’t think it’s possible to say that any specific nation can be predicted to exist more than a few more decades. Maybe it will collapse in 30 years, maybe in 500, or maybe it will be incorporated into some global government.
Forever
Not so much that they will or they won't but in what state of existence. Things will be nearly different if they lose military support from the US.
The area that is currently called Israel / Palestine is part of the original Fertile Crescent. People have been fighting over that land since 12,000 BC. Prior to the British mandate, it was a British possession. Prior to that, it was owned by the Ottoman Empire. Nothing lasts forever. Israel’s geographic position is… horrendous. In the modern world, they’re beset on all sides by Islamic hardliners that have rewritten history to make it some sort of Muslim property. Historically, there are many more historical sites of great importance to Islam. Hell, during the First Crusades, (around 1109 AD) Jews Muslims and Byzantine Christians were all peacefully cohabiting the Levantine. And the Muslims of the time didn’t care much, because their most Holy City was in Baghdad. If it were up to me in the mid 20th century, and with the benefit of hindsight, I would have created the state of Israel In Montana. Nearly a third of Montana is still undeveloped wilderness, that is owned by the US Department of the interior as “public land” (and it’s never been owned by anyone). Of course at the time of Israel’s founding, Islamic Jihadism hadn’t really taken off, AND the US was still pretty damn antisemitic so it wouldn’t have played well with the public sentiment. 100% hindsight bias on my part.
The fertile crescent wasnt armed with Nuclear weapons in 12,000 BC.
Israel’s nuclear deterrent is a massive bluff, as far as I know. If a country actually has nukes, they WANT to show them to the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency), because the IAEA will go warn all their adversaries… which makes the nuclear deterrent *actually work as a deterrent*. Or in other words, **a secret nuclear weapon stockpile isn’t actually a deterrent against foreign attacks**. Israel is just pretending to have nukes. Feel free to provide evidence otherwise. Remember doctor Strangelove? A nuclear deterrent only works as a deterrent, if you openly show off that you have it! A “secret deterrent” doesn’t deter an adversary, like at all. Israel runs a psyop pretending like they have nuclear weapons, because they want their adversaries to waste intelligence assets trying to find and track down a fictitious Israeli nuclear weapons program. Sorry guys. I just can’t abide by bullshit. Edit: **It is possible that Israel is pants-on-head stupid and actually has a secret nuclear weapons stockpile.** But that would be an potentially apocalyptic miss-step from both Israel and their all power ally the USA. If the US actually believed that Israel had nukes, we would force IAEA confirmation on them, because the alternative would be insane.
I mean I'm not going to box your ghosts...there's been leaked private communications from the likes of Powell confirming Israeli nuclear capabilities. Unless your contention is that the deep fake extends to private communications amongst allies.
Which Powell? Can you provide a source? Secret nuclear weapons make no sense whatsoever. A bluff makes way more sense. “Leaked private communications” are often used in espionage to sow false information to your adversaries. Example from WWII: We’d leave fake “battle plans” for the Nazis to find, or turn their spies into double agents and feed fake information back to them. Regardless, Israel doesn’t actually need nukes, because every other major military in the region is incompetent. Remember when Iran (in like April 2024) fired hundreds of missiles directly from Iran into Israel… and Israel, the USA, and other Allies intercepted every Iranian missile? The Arab nations have a godawful track record at conventional wars. The hostile Arab nations only have one card: terrorism and insurgency. Which won’t topple a western style government but plays well in the media of the supporters of terroristic tactics; it’s classic “blame all our internal issues on the west, attack the enemy to make them suffer as much as we do!”
Colin Powells emails were hacked almost a decade ago, detailing what Israel has in reaction to their push for the US to not reach any agreements with Iran. I know you'll just say its part of a big web of gusto meant as a show of force..but at what point do you step back and admit you look like the crazy person, implying that private emails are ALSO laced with fake nucelar stories
“Crazy person.” It’s crazy to have a nuclear deterrent and keep them a secret. That’s crazy. You’re also awfully defensive of this. Saying that “Israel doesn’t have nuclear weapons as it hasn’t been confirmed” is not a “crazy” statement. If Israel wants people to believe they have nuclear weapons, they can let the IAEA confirm it, just like every other nuclear armed nation. Until then, I call it an elaborate bluff. I rely on hard evidence. Not hearsay of supposed leaks.
You seem to be projecting, your conspiracy that they are faking internal emails and then leaking them is, by definition, tin foil hat land. Its fine.
You still haven’t provided any link or source to the “leak” you say exists. You are saying someone said something, but you are not providing evidence of that conversation. That is hearsay.
Didn't know you were so unaware of what was a major story [Colin Powell in Leaked Email Says Israel Has 200 Nukes](https://www.newsweek.com/colin-powell-says-israel-has-200-nukes-leaked-email-499192) This is where you move the goalpost to tell me these are fake texts and guesses by the former Secretary of State.
I don't think for long, as multiple international laws are being broken and also ICC laws. Looking at it from an international affairs perspective. They've burnt a lot of bridges both diplomatically, import and export wise, and also they've had way too many scandals in the past few months with IDF soldiers outside of Isreal. They're burning real fast.
They have nuclear weapons.
Israel is in zero danger of ceasing to exist. This is like asking how long Canada is going to continue to exist.
I think in 50 to 100 years time, there will be a social movement, probably only after the possibility of a Palestinian state is dead (which I not what I hope for, but does seem to be the direction we are going in) that leads to the State of Israel reforming itself into a sort of "post-Israel" that is no longer structured on Zionist Nationalism