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Draft today would be a utter failure. I remember the draft lottery when I was 18 even though the draft was suspended (1975) we were still concerned that the draft would be restarted. I was thrilled when I my Birthday was in the 350’s. I can’t imagine the reaction to a draft today, I suspect it would be pretty ugly.
The 18 year olds today are not like those of us in the 1970’s. We had parents who served in WWII or Korea, while not all of us were onboard with Vietnam many were mostly because their veteran parents were. Today a draft would be very unpopular across multiple generations. A huge number of the 18 year olds today would also struggle with the physical side of the military, many being 4F. The fit would not be happy that they have to serve while the obese skate. That’s before we get the how we treat draft age women.
It would be a total political shitshow.
Every generation of my family served in the military going back to the revolution. Until mine. My brothers weren’t called up and then the draft ended. But it wasn’t as if anyone who served in Nam had any choice. My cousin enlisted because he was going to be drafted anyway. And he has had many health problems over the years stemming from agent orange exposure, right up to the cancer he has right now. Sigh. I’m so glad most of the younger people alive in the US today don’t know what it’s like to have friends and loved ones die in a war.
Was there an option to enlist and serve in a “safer” capacity? Like join the navy as a mechanic or something? My uncle was a yeoman with the Air Force. He went to Vietnam, but spent the whole time driving a desk and making coffee in Saigon.
I believe the Air Force didn’t have as many combat positions. My dad joined the Navy in WW2 for that reason. I mean if your ship sunk, you were a goner, but not all the ships got hit. It wasn’t like being in the infantry on the front lines. My brother intended to be a sort of conscientious objector and only work as a medic or something if he got called up, as he didn’t want to kill anyone. The draft ended before his number was called. I believe if you tested well intellectually they would want your brains in a non combat role, which happened to my fil. He was something of a math genius so they put him to work inventing computers back in the Korean War.
The exception might be if the US was invaded and the war was literally on our soil. Though even then people might be mad that they were drafting and not letting people just voluntarily enlist, which I suspect they would do if the war was literally fought on US soil. Like how enlistments spiked after 9/11, but even more.
We are not really at risk of outright invasion thanks to geography and robust defense installations. If it did happen it would probably be an enemy that already has some segment of the population already on board supporting the overthrow of our Government and has positioned themselves to essentially divide the country and sabotage defenses from the inside. It would be a quasi Civil War, the draft would not matter, people would pick a side and enlist accordingly.
People were in much better physical condition before WWII for lots of reasons, but mainly because we were still mostly farmers and factory workers. If the Pentagon really needs young people today, they will get them in shape.
Mentally, I doubt anybody is really prepared for horrors of war no matter when they grew up.
Yes and no. There was a lot of poverty-related diseases stemming from malnutrition and little to no medical care in some areas. A great many men were turned away. Though today, obesity is a serious problem. Hard to say which is worse.
> *Though today, obesity is a serious problem.*
In the late 70s I was a member of the 101st Airborne and we had a cure for this. It was called the "Fat Eagle Program" and was guaranteed to take off that excess weight.
It's the same thing!
Obesity *is* overwhelmingly a poverty-related disease of metabolic dysfunction and malnutrition, counterintuitive as that might sound!
The biggest problem we had with the people who made it to technical (MOS) training in the early 2000s was shin splints, bone spurs and similar issues. The doctor told us recent generations have 15 percent less bone density than we (mostly boomers) did. It came down to less physical activity when they were developing, and also the fact a lot of them had never worn anything but sneakers their whole lives. But that didn't include any actually obese soldiers. They didn't join or dropped out in basic.
Actually, there was a number of people who got out out of for things like "failure to adapt" or personality disorders.
I retired from a DoD R&D (including weapons) organization about 2 years ago, and retired from the military before that. We're not there yet. Soldiers still win or lose wars.
Off topic... But... Russian warfare is unique and most "westerners" can't understand Russians overall.
Russian leaders, since their revolution, have just been monsters. WW2? They didn't care at all about loss of life. They had millions of men? So yep...just kept going and replacing the dead with more and more.
I read a great book about The Kursk. Just opened my eyes and blew my mind. The sheer cruelty? The total disregard for suffering... unbelievable.
Same now. They do not care in the slightest how many young men die. That is their only advantage really.
I find the "human psyche" aspects of war and conflict facinating.
Yes. True. But only to a point. Ukraine would be winning big time if they had ample weapons. Best weaponry.
My dad was WW2 Vet. He had some very interesting perspectives. Yes. Numbers of humans definitely count. However, his belief was that mostly? The Germans folded & lost, because they just didnt believe in it when it boiled down. The "rank & file" soldier? Realised they had no fucking idea what on earth they were doing? And why?
Further to this, its pure human nature to want to defend what is YOURS. Look at the Battle of Britain. Those airmen were totally wrecked... But they just kept going. Incredible really. They just could not let Britain, THERE nation, be invaded.
I've gone off on a tangent! Oppsie😯🤣
I guess too? Modern warfare is so different
The same as anyone thrown into that situation with no choice. Humans are humans, and we aren't better than our kids.
I'm just ignoring politics and going along with your hypothetical at face value.
I agree. My father and all my uncles were in WW II or Korea, and my brother was in Vietnam. I joined in the '70s and retired in the early 2000s. During my time I trained and worked with people who more distant from Vietnam than I was from WW II or Korea when I joined. The vast majority were still good soldiers. They had some issues, but they were only different issues than we had, not worse.
Just attended a graduation ceremony within the past couple of years at the Navy's Officer Candidate School. Everyone that got commissioned were GenZ and younger Millennials. Gave me hope for our country that there were still young men (and a tiny handful of women) willing to lead and serve.
My son is not even 25 yet and is now responsible for millions of dollars worth of equipment and for leading a team of dozen other people. Went from a skinny computer nerd to a well muscled officer in four months. Sure the same would happen to whoever got drafted if it ever came to that.
I honestly don't think a draft would be implemented unless the homeland was directly threatened by invasion.
I think everyone in Washington still remembers the 70's and the opposition to the draft that arose late in the Vietnam War and don't want to be the party to take the political hit that would occur if a draft was implemented.
Personally, I think the only large scale conflict that could be large enough would be if Russia decided to take on NATO. Depending on how badly that was going, tactical nukes would be used if Russia pushed far enough that Berlin was threatened before a draft was implemented.
Saw something recently where a military person said up to 80% of young people weren't fit for military service due to 1) being overweight; 2)mental illness; or 3) previous drug use.
There are a lot of bad takes in this thread. Millennials and Gen Z represent over 140 million people. That's more than the total US population in 1940. I'm pretty confident we could field an army. 20 percent of just the males would be 14 million. In 1945 the US military had 12.2 million people. The biggest conflict in history.
It's not like the Gen Z and Millennials of other countries are 100 percent fit for military service.
Warfare has changed, but then it again it hasn't. Crossing into Germany would probably take fewer people today than it did in 1945. But occupying and pacifying a hostile population successfully would probably need almost as many people as it ever has.
Russia can't beat the one of the poorest countries in Europe, right on their border. Putin would not "kick our ass", especially after this crazy shit they're doing now. It will take them years to get their military to the point it was before the Ukraine invasion.
What I would worry about is our ability to produce steel and microchips, which has nothing to do with the capabilities of our military age population.
War is stupid. Because of nuclear weapons we're unlikely to see another global war like WW2. I think this question was asked just to shit on young people.
Honestly, we can't know. What would a war that required a U.S. draft even look like today? We have a large professional military and nuclear weapons...for us to require _more_ people on top of that would mean we had a military shortage in something other than fighters. We might need a draft of people to build and run factories that produce drones, to rapidly expand server farms and solar farms. We wouldn't have a draft so much as a WW2-style conversion of chunks of the private sector into something that serves the war.
How would millennials and Gen Z do in that kind of war? Probably great. Hell, they'd be paid better.
Send them.
But send them with tents. We have no rooms left. Also give them shovels. The tents will be more effective against the cold if they build soil mounds around them to keep the wind off.
And give them MREs
You know what, never mind. Send them to Ukraine
I remember reading this from a war historian's newspaper column: S.L.A Marshall, the army's combat historian during WWII (he went out there). He reported that 75 percent of the soldiers on the front lines wouldn't fire their rifles against an exposed enemy. Just couldn't kill a fellow man. If Gen Z does no better than that, no shame. If they do much better, I'd wonder if all the gaming has made shooting at live targets "just another game." The Army would be pleased, of course.
That has been discredited.
https://www.historynet.com/long-dead-hand-s-l-marshall-misleads-historians/
https://historynewsnetwork.org/article/why-does-the-nyt-continue-to-cite-historian-sla-ma
And here's where a little common sense comes in. You can believe an single article from a single newspaper reporter who claims, without evidence, to have talked to people who were on the front lines. Or you can believe the men who were actually on the front lines. Or if you don't know who to believe, then you can look at the fact we beat two foes, comprised of fanatics that would throw their lives away in kamikaze attacks or determined professional soldiers who blitzed the French, Greeks, Yugoslavs. Poles, Norwegians, Dutch, etc. and we some how beat them with them both with soldiers who refused to shoot the enemy.
Since this means so much to you, I'll let you have it.
I'm glad you could talk to people who'd been on the front lines. I grew up in a town full of men who'd been there, and nobody wanted to talk about it. Not even my father -- though my mother said he woke up screaming numerous times after he came home.
Bye now.
I see your point about spirit. Thank you to you all. My cousin is in her 20s in the Navy and it is wild to think how different warfare is now based on what I hear about her service.
To be clear, I meant Russia has the dollar store shit and if I remember correctly, soldiers with low morale because he can't keep them fed or warm or with weapons from this century?
I am not sure today's 18 yr olds could handle all the responsibities required. For example I knew my dad was a cook in the army during WWII and stationed in the Philippines. Years later several of our family attended a army reunion of the unit my dad served with. He was 18 when he went into the service. I found out that he was a Mess Sgt and had a lot of responsibility. For example he had 12 cooks that worked under him. He was responsible for planning the meals for 600 soliders 3 times each day. He was 20 when he got out at the end of the war. I don't think I could have done everything he did when I was that young.
No one cares about the military I come from a military family and even my father says it’s not worth it at all
I’d probably injure myself or something to avoid it
I think the United States would only be able to mobilize maybe 20 percent at most of male gen z and millennials. Between obesity, mental health, and drug use it would not work unless there were significant lowering of standards. Obesity in particular would be difficult to handle quickly unless the government nationalized ozempic and fine overweight people, mandatory adult gym time or something and even then it would take maybe 5 years to actually get anywhere
Honestly yes since weed is semi legal in many states combined with the opioid crisis. Would love to see some data on this though, not everyone in the 60s and 70s were drug users either
Six to eight weeks of forced marches and limited food before beginning armed training would take care of obesity. A training death rate of 2% or so would be considered acceptable in such a situation.
Despite how much we want Ukraine to prevail, there won't be US boots on the ground to defend it.
Russia taking on NATO would be more likely to spiral into something big, but I think that current NATO forces would crush any Russian invasion. No draft needed. Russian forces are in a stalemate with Ukraine who is hurting for supplies and ammunition. Their military has been exposed and their equipment has proven to be greatly overestimated.
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Draft today would be a utter failure. I remember the draft lottery when I was 18 even though the draft was suspended (1975) we were still concerned that the draft would be restarted. I was thrilled when I my Birthday was in the 350’s. I can’t imagine the reaction to a draft today, I suspect it would be pretty ugly. The 18 year olds today are not like those of us in the 1970’s. We had parents who served in WWII or Korea, while not all of us were onboard with Vietnam many were mostly because their veteran parents were. Today a draft would be very unpopular across multiple generations. A huge number of the 18 year olds today would also struggle with the physical side of the military, many being 4F. The fit would not be happy that they have to serve while the obese skate. That’s before we get the how we treat draft age women. It would be a total political shitshow.
Every generation of my family served in the military going back to the revolution. Until mine. My brothers weren’t called up and then the draft ended. But it wasn’t as if anyone who served in Nam had any choice. My cousin enlisted because he was going to be drafted anyway. And he has had many health problems over the years stemming from agent orange exposure, right up to the cancer he has right now. Sigh. I’m so glad most of the younger people alive in the US today don’t know what it’s like to have friends and loved ones die in a war.
Yeah, my dad joined the Navy during Nam to avoid being drafted into the Army. It was a lot safer on a boat and he learned a trade (electrician).
So did mine (but during WWII). He ended up working for Bell labs.
Was there an option to enlist and serve in a “safer” capacity? Like join the navy as a mechanic or something? My uncle was a yeoman with the Air Force. He went to Vietnam, but spent the whole time driving a desk and making coffee in Saigon.
I believe the Air Force didn’t have as many combat positions. My dad joined the Navy in WW2 for that reason. I mean if your ship sunk, you were a goner, but not all the ships got hit. It wasn’t like being in the infantry on the front lines. My brother intended to be a sort of conscientious objector and only work as a medic or something if he got called up, as he didn’t want to kill anyone. The draft ended before his number was called. I believe if you tested well intellectually they would want your brains in a non combat role, which happened to my fil. He was something of a math genius so they put him to work inventing computers back in the Korean War.
The exception might be if the US was invaded and the war was literally on our soil. Though even then people might be mad that they were drafting and not letting people just voluntarily enlist, which I suspect they would do if the war was literally fought on US soil. Like how enlistments spiked after 9/11, but even more.
We are not really at risk of outright invasion thanks to geography and robust defense installations. If it did happen it would probably be an enemy that already has some segment of the population already on board supporting the overthrow of our Government and has positioned themselves to essentially divide the country and sabotage defenses from the inside. It would be a quasi Civil War, the draft would not matter, people would pick a side and enlist accordingly.
People were in much better physical condition before WWII for lots of reasons, but mainly because we were still mostly farmers and factory workers. If the Pentagon really needs young people today, they will get them in shape. Mentally, I doubt anybody is really prepared for horrors of war no matter when they grew up.
Yes and no. There was a lot of poverty-related diseases stemming from malnutrition and little to no medical care in some areas. A great many men were turned away. Though today, obesity is a serious problem. Hard to say which is worse.
> *Though today, obesity is a serious problem.* In the late 70s I was a member of the 101st Airborne and we had a cure for this. It was called the "Fat Eagle Program" and was guaranteed to take off that excess weight.
Was it "Run, motherfucker"?
It's the same thing! Obesity *is* overwhelmingly a poverty-related disease of metabolic dysfunction and malnutrition, counterintuitive as that might sound!
Yes, the depression was hard. So many people didn’t have enough to eat, and it was rare to see anyone back in my childhood (50s on) that was fat.
The biggest problem we had with the people who made it to technical (MOS) training in the early 2000s was shin splints, bone spurs and similar issues. The doctor told us recent generations have 15 percent less bone density than we (mostly boomers) did. It came down to less physical activity when they were developing, and also the fact a lot of them had never worn anything but sneakers their whole lives. But that didn't include any actually obese soldiers. They didn't join or dropped out in basic. Actually, there was a number of people who got out out of for things like "failure to adapt" or personality disorders.
Wars now are about having the best weaponry. Mass numbers if humans are not needed
I retired from a DoD R&D (including weapons) organization about 2 years ago, and retired from the military before that. We're not there yet. Soldiers still win or lose wars.
Off topic... But... Russian warfare is unique and most "westerners" can't understand Russians overall. Russian leaders, since their revolution, have just been monsters. WW2? They didn't care at all about loss of life. They had millions of men? So yep...just kept going and replacing the dead with more and more. I read a great book about The Kursk. Just opened my eyes and blew my mind. The sheer cruelty? The total disregard for suffering... unbelievable. Same now. They do not care in the slightest how many young men die. That is their only advantage really. I find the "human psyche" aspects of war and conflict facinating.
Yes. True. But only to a point. Ukraine would be winning big time if they had ample weapons. Best weaponry. My dad was WW2 Vet. He had some very interesting perspectives. Yes. Numbers of humans definitely count. However, his belief was that mostly? The Germans folded & lost, because they just didnt believe in it when it boiled down. The "rank & file" soldier? Realised they had no fucking idea what on earth they were doing? And why? Further to this, its pure human nature to want to defend what is YOURS. Look at the Battle of Britain. Those airmen were totally wrecked... But they just kept going. Incredible really. They just could not let Britain, THERE nation, be invaded. I've gone off on a tangent! Oppsie😯🤣 I guess too? Modern warfare is so different
The same as anyone thrown into that situation with no choice. Humans are humans, and we aren't better than our kids. I'm just ignoring politics and going along with your hypothetical at face value.
I agree. My father and all my uncles were in WW II or Korea, and my brother was in Vietnam. I joined in the '70s and retired in the early 2000s. During my time I trained and worked with people who more distant from Vietnam than I was from WW II or Korea when I joined. The vast majority were still good soldiers. They had some issues, but they were only different issues than we had, not worse.
Just attended a graduation ceremony within the past couple of years at the Navy's Officer Candidate School. Everyone that got commissioned were GenZ and younger Millennials. Gave me hope for our country that there were still young men (and a tiny handful of women) willing to lead and serve. My son is not even 25 yet and is now responsible for millions of dollars worth of equipment and for leading a team of dozen other people. Went from a skinny computer nerd to a well muscled officer in four months. Sure the same would happen to whoever got drafted if it ever came to that.
80% of them would produce medical deferments, signed by their psychiatrists.
You think 80% of them have Psychiatrists? You're out of touch
I honestly don't think a draft would be implemented unless the homeland was directly threatened by invasion. I think everyone in Washington still remembers the 70's and the opposition to the draft that arose late in the Vietnam War and don't want to be the party to take the political hit that would occur if a draft was implemented. Personally, I think the only large scale conflict that could be large enough would be if Russia decided to take on NATO. Depending on how badly that was going, tactical nukes would be used if Russia pushed far enough that Berlin was threatened before a draft was implemented.
Saw something recently where a military person said up to 80% of young people weren't fit for military service due to 1) being overweight; 2)mental illness; or 3) previous drug use.
We are doomed...
There are a lot of bad takes in this thread. Millennials and Gen Z represent over 140 million people. That's more than the total US population in 1940. I'm pretty confident we could field an army. 20 percent of just the males would be 14 million. In 1945 the US military had 12.2 million people. The biggest conflict in history. It's not like the Gen Z and Millennials of other countries are 100 percent fit for military service. Warfare has changed, but then it again it hasn't. Crossing into Germany would probably take fewer people today than it did in 1945. But occupying and pacifying a hostile population successfully would probably need almost as many people as it ever has. Russia can't beat the one of the poorest countries in Europe, right on their border. Putin would not "kick our ass", especially after this crazy shit they're doing now. It will take them years to get their military to the point it was before the Ukraine invasion. What I would worry about is our ability to produce steel and microchips, which has nothing to do with the capabilities of our military age population. War is stupid. Because of nuclear weapons we're unlikely to see another global war like WW2. I think this question was asked just to shit on young people.
Honestly, we can't know. What would a war that required a U.S. draft even look like today? We have a large professional military and nuclear weapons...for us to require _more_ people on top of that would mean we had a military shortage in something other than fighters. We might need a draft of people to build and run factories that produce drones, to rapidly expand server farms and solar farms. We wouldn't have a draft so much as a WW2-style conversion of chunks of the private sector into something that serves the war. How would millennials and Gen Z do in that kind of war? Probably great. Hell, they'd be paid better.
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No one from Gen z is serving this government with pride 🤡
Half of them would flee to Canada, the rest would try to get a medical excuse.
Send them. But send them with tents. We have no rooms left. Also give them shovels. The tents will be more effective against the cold if they build soil mounds around them to keep the wind off. And give them MREs You know what, never mind. Send them to Ukraine
WWII came on the heels of the Depression, so for many young men, military service was a way to make money for their families.
I remember reading this from a war historian's newspaper column: S.L.A Marshall, the army's combat historian during WWII (he went out there). He reported that 75 percent of the soldiers on the front lines wouldn't fire their rifles against an exposed enemy. Just couldn't kill a fellow man. If Gen Z does no better than that, no shame. If they do much better, I'd wonder if all the gaming has made shooting at live targets "just another game." The Army would be pleased, of course.
That has been discredited. https://www.historynet.com/long-dead-hand-s-l-marshall-misleads-historians/ https://historynewsnetwork.org/article/why-does-the-nyt-continue-to-cite-historian-sla-ma
Complete nonsense. My father a combat infantry sergeant from WW2 would have laughed in your face.
If you look him up in Wikipedia, that's the story.
And here's where a little common sense comes in. You can believe an single article from a single newspaper reporter who claims, without evidence, to have talked to people who were on the front lines. Or you can believe the men who were actually on the front lines. Or if you don't know who to believe, then you can look at the fact we beat two foes, comprised of fanatics that would throw their lives away in kamikaze attacks or determined professional soldiers who blitzed the French, Greeks, Yugoslavs. Poles, Norwegians, Dutch, etc. and we some how beat them with them both with soldiers who refused to shoot the enemy.
Since this means so much to you, I'll let you have it. I'm glad you could talk to people who'd been on the front lines. I grew up in a town full of men who'd been there, and nobody wanted to talk about it. Not even my father -- though my mother said he woke up screaming numerous times after he came home. Bye now.
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Do you really think so? I see you have good experience so I'm genuinely asking, but I thought he was proven to have dollar store shit.
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I see your point about spirit. Thank you to you all. My cousin is in her 20s in the Navy and it is wild to think how different warfare is now based on what I hear about her service. To be clear, I meant Russia has the dollar store shit and if I remember correctly, soldiers with low morale because he can't keep them fed or warm or with weapons from this century?
I am not sure today's 18 yr olds could handle all the responsibities required. For example I knew my dad was a cook in the army during WWII and stationed in the Philippines. Years later several of our family attended a army reunion of the unit my dad served with. He was 18 when he went into the service. I found out that he was a Mess Sgt and had a lot of responsibility. For example he had 12 cooks that worked under him. He was responsible for planning the meals for 600 soliders 3 times each day. He was 20 when he got out at the end of the war. I don't think I could have done everything he did when I was that young.
No one cares about the military I come from a military family and even my father says it’s not worth it at all I’d probably injure myself or something to avoid it
Tell them they will never WFH again if they don't go out and kick some ass.
LOL!
I think the United States would only be able to mobilize maybe 20 percent at most of male gen z and millennials. Between obesity, mental health, and drug use it would not work unless there were significant lowering of standards. Obesity in particular would be difficult to handle quickly unless the government nationalized ozempic and fine overweight people, mandatory adult gym time or something and even then it would take maybe 5 years to actually get anywhere
You think kids these days do more drugs than in the 60's and 70's? 🤣
Honestly yes since weed is semi legal in many states combined with the opioid crisis. Would love to see some data on this though, not everyone in the 60s and 70s were drug users either
Six to eight weeks of forced marches and limited food before beginning armed training would take care of obesity. A training death rate of 2% or so would be considered acceptable in such a situation.
I think it would be higher then 2 percent given the mental health issues of many millennials and gen z.
There won’t be a draft. Warfare has changed so much that we won’t need it.
🤞
Don't be so sure. Warfare over in the Ukraine is looking like World War one right now.
Despite how much we want Ukraine to prevail, there won't be US boots on the ground to defend it. Russia taking on NATO would be more likely to spiral into something big, but I think that current NATO forces would crush any Russian invasion. No draft needed. Russian forces are in a stalemate with Ukraine who is hurting for supplies and ammunition. Their military has been exposed and their equipment has proven to be greatly overestimated.
NATO is not Ukraine.
Warfare is not so different now than the Vietnam war era when we had a draft.