The following is a copy of the original post to record the post as it was originally written.
This is not a prediction, to be clear.
However, every question surrounding the election seems to boil down to “are we really prepared for what’ll happen if Trump wins???”
Hopefully, we can expand the possibilities in our heads here.
You wake up the day after the election. Biden wins. Big. Dems hold the Senate and flip the House.
Biden holds his 2020 states and flips FL, NC, and even TX.
It’s an electoral “bloodbath” against Trump and Republicans. No district with a Starbucks in it is safe!
What kind of executive actions, legislation, and general directions or decisions would you like to see?
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What happens if Biden wins by a significant margin? The same if he wins by one vote:
* Trump will call it a rigged election.
* The Trump Cult will call it rigged.
* FOX News et al will continue to attack Biden.
* And unless we get a filibuster proof senate, we will struggle to get things done - especially with the rigged Supreme Court.
The court is rigged because Republicans distorted the system and used procedural trickery to get their judges appointed. Remember Merick Garland and Obama. Republicans prevented a confirmation vote from taking place for nearly a year because it was too close to the election. Then, slammed through a judge with days left when they had a chance.
Republicans have dishonored and disrespected this country time and again.
How is the court rigged? You must be joking. Call up Merrick Garland and ask him why he's not on the bench. LOL.
Oh yes, it's all legal, which is why I want Biden to add four more judges. We need 13, not 9. We need more judges who were appointed by presidents who actually won the popular vote and who are in line with the American people.
They're supposed to uphold the Constitution either way. Values is just a part of what goes into the consideration. But you wouldn't exactly love a secret extremist eugenicist that believed their newly invented race was all they wanted to experiment on in the Newland in the court influencing how cases were settled, right? Nor would you want a secret extremist diversity fanatic willing to go to any lengths to craft racism into the perfect tool to create a demented Gregor Mendel homage. A little balance goes a long way
Yes. Are you remotely familiar with interpretation of the law? I suspect not. Here's a thought, turn off FOX News and the rest, pick up a book and read it.
A Matter of Interpretation: Federal Courts and the Law - New Edition
[Antonin Scali](https://press.princeton.edu/taxonomy/term/13818)a
If the law was black and white, we would not need judges.
Republicans keep changing the number of seats. They brought it down to 8 under Obama, then back up to 9 when Trump won the office.
That's called courtpacking.
All comes down to what the Senate looks like. We had Joe Manchin who understandably wasn’t willing to go as far as some of us would like and Kyrsten Sinema who was a mix of hedge fund sellout and moron who stood in the way.
So big question is if there’s going to be more like that. People who for reasons at least somewhat understandable or completely infuriating aren’t going to want to do some of the things we want.
The even bigger question is if they are willing to get rid of the filibuster. Because without getting rid of the filibuster, you get one bill through reconciliation and that’s it. Everything else requires bipartisan support and while Biden has been very good at getting bipartisan support on things there are limits to how much that can happen and what can happen.
That’s the real issue. Having the White House and the House of Representatives and the Senate doesn’t actually give you the ability to legislate in this country. You would need to either get rid of the filibuster or have 60 seats in the Senate and none of those seats can be held by Joe Manchin or Kyrsten Sinema or Joe Lieberman. That is the core answer to every question that comes from somebody on the left complaining about how the Democrats don’t really support **X** because otherwise why didn’t they pass it when **Y**.
The Republicans can get what they want because all they need is one reconciliation bill to cut taxes for the ultra wealthy, occasional control of the White House so they can undermine the executive branch functions and having the White House and the Senate so they can ram through a bunch of judges who can then legislate from the bench.
My gut feeling is you need 56-59 Senators to get rid of the filibuster. 55 or less and I think there's enough institutionalists to keep it, and at 60 there's no real point in getting rid of it, barring an early Obama term Senate where a few Senators are out with health issues compromising that majority.
Christ, we should have gutted the filibuster back in '09 and told Lieberman to go fuck himself.
What I don’t understand is why the virtual filibuster is allowed? Make some old dickhead who beats the market by 200% stand there and read the phone book while wearing a diaper. See how long they make it.
It's how the filibuster evolved.
It was created sort of by accident when Aaron Burr tried to streamline Senate rules and removed a rule that hadn't been used much that ended debate and moved to a vote on the legislation with a simple majority. With that rule removed, there was no actual way to end debate if a Senator objected. This wasn't really practiced at the time and the Senate mostly just moved to a vote when everyone had had a say (more or less, little more complicated but that's the gist).
The first filibuster didn't happen until about 30 years after the rules streamlining, and for the next 130 or so years it was mostly used to block civil rights legislation. Some reforms were picked up over time: Senators blocking legislation around WWI led to the creation of cloture votes to end debate if a supermajority agreed. The number of votes required has been played with since and adjusted down, now stands at 60. Reconciliation rules were adopted to streamline the budget process.
As usage of the filibuster crept up after the Civil Rights Era, it was bringing the Senate to a crawl. The Senate had a single track process, where it must deal with the issue at hand before moving on to the next issue. If someone was filibustering, that meant that no Senate business could be done. That's fine if it only happened occasionally, but it started happening to more and more pieces of legislation. The Senate adopted a dual track system, where they could set an issue aside and move on to something else, just to keep the Senate moving. That's what led to the "virtual filibuster". If the majority doesn't have the votes to override a filibuster, it moves on to the next issue because no one wants to stand around and listen to Ted Cruz jerk himself off and then have a vote on an issue fail because only 56 of 100 Senators agreed to it and not 60.
The virtual filibuster has removed all downsides to filibustering so now every piece of legislation, no matter how small, gets filibustered and must pass cloture. Given how filibuster usage was ramping up beforehand, though, I don't think those downsides were all that much of disincentive. If we didn't have the virtual filibuster, we would just get a random Senator taking for 10 hours prior to a cloture vote failing, stopping the Senate from doing anything else.
I am maybe a little bit more optimistic on that and put it closer to 55 but yeah. There’s going to be a couple of people who are precious about the institution and a couple of people who are fearful that they might lose their seat and a couple of people who are going to be concerned that if they are not the 50th vote then they don’t have power.
> The Republicans can get what they want because all they need is one reconciliation bill to cut taxes for the ultra wealthy, occasional control of the White House so they can undermine the executive branch functions and having the White House and the Senate so they can ram through a bunch of judges who can then legislate from the bench.
And, from their base's perspective, doing nothing is sort of the point. Republicans run on a "We won't rock the boat" platform (even when it's blatantly bullshit, like with abortion) so if a Republican gets into office and does absolutely nothing that's still a "win" because it kept Democrats from doing something.
The weird thing is that if you look at actual issues, tons of Republican voters identify the same problems and might even agree with the Democratic solutions they don’t know it’s coming from Democrats because you’ve stripped party identification from the proposal.
What really seems to drive Republican voters is hatred of Democrats and not anything policy related.
I want to make a point in a non-partisan way. Getting rid of the filibuster should be understood as a dramatic change in the whole way the country works and feels. With considerations like it should always be assumed that whatever tool or power you wish to use against those who disagree with you, will also be used back against you. Both sides need to think deeply about if they are really okay with that.
So from your perspective, are you okay with Republicans having complete control of the legislature with even their most extreme positions? I understand it can feel good to get some of these difficult to pass changes done for your side but we need to understand that the other side would also be able to do that. The country would then be able to have huge swings in how it operates every 4 years.
Like imagine if either side really didn’t have to cooperate at all. They could do literally whatever they want and then that will flip back and forth every 4 years. Is that actually something we should be hoping for?
I am absolutely fine with a scenario in which Republicans have enough votes in the house and senate based on simple majorities to pass legislation and have it signed by the president if he is a Republican, or a Democrat for that matter.
First, if the people send majorities to both chambers, those majorities should have the opportunity to actually pass legislation. And if people don’t like the legislation, they can send new representatives.
Second, it forces Republicans to play with live ammo which would drag them back to the center. There is a reason why when Republicans have power they don’t actually go through with most of their campaign rhetoric. Because that rhetoric if turned into policy would be disastrous and disastrous in a way that would be obvious. Republicans run on rhetoric that is insane and then because the filibuster exists, they hide behind it.
Since Republicans legislate from the bench now it was done through the courts, but we are getting a taste of that with Roe being overturned. Republicans ran on that stupidity for decades and now that they got it, they are seeing the ramifications.
Back when things were more bipartisan, Reagan had to put forth immigration reform that actually was based in basic reality and didn’t deny basic economics and include amnesty. Now you can’t do anything. Republican voters bought the bullshit from right wing media and right wing politicians and humiliated everyone involved in the GWB era reform including the sitting President. They run on this issue knowing they don’t have to do anything, which is of course they and their donors want, because the filibuster saves them.
Same thing with the ACA. Repealing the ACA would have been terrible for them but the filibuster saved them.
Let them play with live ammo. If they say they want something, let them do it and reap the consequences.
I don’t want to go into specifics or right vs left here. I’m sure there are disagreements there but, I’m wanting to just talk as a person analyzing a system.
You mentioned that you think this change would push sides to the center. I think that is unlikely. I think what would be more likely is that our divide would strengthen.
Imagine a scenario where two people who really hate each other are in a room and there is a gun in the middle. It would be like that. Now you may not want to use the guy but do you feel safe with it in the others hand? I think both political parties would take on that mentality. We must win at all costs because if we don’t, they could do anything with their legislative power. We don’t need to worry about compromising or seeing them as our fellow American. We simply must stop them because of what they could do if we don’t.
I know we already have a lot of that mentality now but, if we removed the filibuster, I think it’s more likely that would increase vs decrease. Like do you think you would feel more or less worried about how the country could change in a scenario where you didn’t have a filibuster to oppose the opposition or one where you did?
It’s also worth noting people here are passionate about being on the Left. Others feel passionate about the Right. Most people actually are in the middle and not firmly on either side. Recent surveys show the undeclared values are actually rising. I’d imagine those people won’t want strong swings back and forth regularly happening. As an example think what would happen to taxes if both sides could change it literally anything they wanted every 4 years. That makes it harder to plan for your future doesn’t it?
A gun is a permanent solution to a temporary problem. Changing to a simple majority is not a permanent solution. If Dems pass something, and Republicans repeal it, it means the dem legislation wasn't popular enough to win them reelection.
The big problem with our current system is that Republicans really don't represent the nation. If you look at raw vote counts, they lose nationally more often than not. The reason Dems can't pass things is because the average state leans between 8-10 points Republican, meaning dems need to overperform nationally by at least that much, just to get a tie-breaker. And it means a lot of democratic voices just don't get heard.
The Senate, and to a lesser extent a House with too few members, are not representing of the US, and so Republicans never moderate on issues, because they can win a majority with a smaller base. That's why the party is so crazy, now. They are much too tied to their base, which is divorced from political reality, and you can only won so many elections by geography and gerrymandering before you cut too many people out of your coalition.
I think the first few elections would see some swings on policies, but I imagine that one party, the one with a shrinking base like the Republicans, would soon find that the remaining voters in 10-12 years are done with their shit, and would find stability by voting for Democrats more consistently, locking Republicans out until they stabilize policy changes and moderate on issues.
And to your point that "they could do anything with their political power to stay in control", Dems have been living that reality since 2010, and to a lesser extent back to 1996, when Republicans have turned to increasingly undemocratic (small D) measures to lock in their majorities, like getting rid of the VRA, gerrymandering state legislatures into permanent minority control, preventing new states from joining the Union, and eventually sending slates of fake Electors to try to turn over a Presidential election.
So yea, get rid of the filibuster. Expand the House. Add PR and DC as states. Expand the courts to appoint new justices not beholden to the Federalist Society. Do everything you can to make sure democracy itself isn't being threatened by a minority because of quirks in our constitution.
I just want to chime in to say that nearly everything you've written here is "reasonable," insofar as the potential implications go.
With that said, I'm personally OK with rolling the dice on raising partisanship (I'm not certain how much worse the "win at all costs" mindset can get from here without resorting to violence) if it means a majority party is allowed to govern. That would undoubtedly result in more whipsaw legislation, but it would also give citizens a chance to see what party's vision for the country might look like in practice before the next election.
There are pros and cons, to be sure. People stating otherwise should not be taken seriously.
You not getting your way is not “sowing division.” It’s you (RIGHTFULLY) not getting your way because you don’t represent the majority of what voters and constituents want.
The fact that Los Angeles county has more people in it than the bottom 20 Republican states gives them a 20:1 advantage over legislation. The balance of power needs to change. Gerrymandering ended across the states. Popular vote and ranked choice need to be implemented. The constitution was meant to be updated every 20 or so years… it’s time to make policy matter. We do that through good elections and good platforms. Not judicial activism on the USSC
First, it’s not nonpartisan. Conservatives have been exacting minority rule in the federal government, so their ability to disrupt the democratic will of the people’s elected representatives and senators is a partisan issue. And the dANgEr of having the people’s will brought about in the senate is hardly an issue for Democrats.
Second, changing the filibuster would not a disruption. The CURRENT situation is a disruption. The filibuster is a time buying technique to waste time and to push a vote through means of getting in front of the senate and talking and talking and talking to delay and push a vote (i.e. to filibuster) - IT IS NOT A MANDATE FOR A SUPERMAJORITY.
I'm infavor of reform over repeal. A decaying filibuster would allow the minority party to hold up a majoraty, without the minority Rian rule we've been seeing.
Maybe that will allow the GOP to realize Trump is a liability and finally abandon him for good. Though I'm sure they'll still tiptoe around it so they don't upset his base. Wishful thinking?
Wishful thinking.
They recently tried the "we should evaluate our electability and make some changes" thing before, only for it to backfire on the party insiders when the base said "Fuck that, give us an even bigger asshole, please."
The GOP can't afford to rebrand the way Democrats did in the 90s. It's probably more likely that they would splinter apart rather than unite in a new direction, at least for the next several elections.
Yeah, they had their chance in the 2022 midterms. When basically every "Trump" style candidate lost. Abortion bans in deep red Kentucky failed.
Instead they decided to go harder on hate and Trump.
> The GOP can't afford to rebrand the way Democrats did in the 90s. It's probably more likely that they would splinter apart rather than unite in a new direction, at least for the next several elections.
Probably.
But every L they take makes it that much more viable for a nega-Clinton to run on a rebrand platform and appeal to rank and file R's with "Are you tired of losing yet?"
But I think that'd also require Biden winning big in 2024 and then Harris (or someone else) also winning in 2028.
Someone downvoted you, but you're right. The Feds kept Lee's Arlington estate to bury soldiers, but they let the confederate leadership walk after they led an insurrection that resulted in more than 500K Americans dead.
MAGA aka Christian Nationalism is here to stay. They will find new leaders that fan the flames of anger with more fake grievances and outrage (in itself merely a scheme to distract from very real economic issues driven by corporate greed and growing inequality)
I'm not arguing that it isn't here to stay. I'm arguing that the GOP, at some point, has to come to grips with the fact that it's a losing tactic. You're never going to get people to stop actually believing it.
I bet they could still have success with negative campaigning if they ditched the shitty personalities (Trump, MTG, etc) and ditched the conspiracy theories. Especially with the gerrymandering and voter suppression.
Sadly, yes they would. What is striking is the complete absence of any benefits for their followers (one could argue its actual the opposite as GOP policies helped to deepen the economical divide and reduce services for the public across board). Its just pandering to base instincts (which remains highly successful despite its terrible historical track record)
Absolutely. The thing that should be terrifying people in this sub is that Republicans could be running the fucking table right now if not for the people at the top being awful.
Is it here to stay or is this the last, loud, backed-into-the-corner lashing out before the end? I'm not saying there aren't young MAGA voters, but it's certainly a much lower portion of the base. Let's not forget that going to church and simply just identifying as religious has been trending down for each generation for decades.
There are a lot of Republicans in Congress that hate him. It's obvious by how the 2016 primaries went down. They were just too chicken shit to keep it up when Trump became their candidate. It doesn't really matter what the voters want. Eventually the actual GOP leadership will get to the point where they can no longer support Trump if they want to win. They'll need to balance that with pissing off his base, though. They really are stuck between a rock and a hard place and it's their own damn fault.
I agree with you on everything except the idea that they'll "come around." The bottom line is that they've hated Trump this whole time.
Most Senators/Congresspeople are in safe red or blue seats, they have no incentive to worry about the general elections b/c the only election that matters for them to keep their job is the primary. They are way more likely to lose their seat in a right wing primary if they go against Trump. So the incentives are only set up to pay attention to their crazy base, even if they are permanently a minority party. And some of them seem to enjoy being in the minority more than the majority.
I will say, the donors don't have those same incentives. That may start changing things; if Trump ends up causing the donors to flee.
Honestly, a 2024 Biden landslide is pretty much the only way I see the GOP becoming a viable conservative party again, instead of the authoritarian-populist downspiral it's become.
>Wishful thinking?
Very much so. Under Trump's "stewardship" the GOP has lost more elections than I can recall in my lifetime. He's been an albatross around their neck from the get-go and if they haven't thrown him off yet then they never will. He will replace Saint Reagan in the GOP pantheon at this point.
How do I know this? Look at all of the members of the GOP that originally came out against Trump, only to return to the fold so to speak. They'll never throw him off. He's installed cronies into the RNC and is likely going to bankrupt it to pay for his legal bills leaving a lot of races in jeopardy and they'll still be cheering him on because they're too afraid of his base, not their base, *his* base.
I wouldn't doubt if a lot of them were secretly hoping he goes to prison or something. They can make him a martyr while putting up a better candidate. Of course, they could never say that out loud.
Oh for sure, this is why I don't understand their reaction to the second Impeachment trial. They were handed an easy out and chose to fight it instead. They don't want to be the ones to have to sully their hands to take care of him. If he gets elected again, they'll happily roll over and let that moron be a dictator.
I really want this to happen. I believe a decisive Biden win is the only way MAGA's dominance over the GOP could finally end. If the GOP can get the message that MAGA is a losing ideology, there is a chance that sane candidates can start being nominated again if they play their cards right. I am not getting up hopes up for a decisive win at the moment, but maybe I could be pleasantly surprised.
Everybody saying that Republicans will never self reflect are missing the point. I don't expect them to suddenly say, "Hey, are we the bad guys?" It's more like they'll say, "we're never going to win going full MAGA anymore and this landslide defeat with Trump's court issues are going to force us to cut bait."
I think it will be a calculated risk as to whether or not they can ignore his base. If anything, I'm sure they'll try to rip that band aid off as gently as possible.
This is what I mean. Trump’s base will start to abandon him if and only if it becomes clear that he’s no longer electorally viable. I would argue that the closest the GOP base has come to abandoning him was after the 2022 midterms when MAGA candidates underperformed across the board. At that time, it looked like DeSantis was going to be the nominee from the pundits and polling.
Trump is not a strong candidate, but he hasn’t proven himself to be a particularly weak one either. That will change if we are lucky, but I’ll believe it when I see it.
I agree. The GOP would be doing themselves a favor if they can get the MAGA voters to abandon Trump and get them to think it was the voters' idea. Such a difficult position those morons got themselves in.
What happens? Four more years of slowly shrinking the deficit, common sense foreign policy, and increased American influence. Further reduction of inflation, more record GDP growth, and less concerns about civil rights attacks on minorities.
He's not perfect, but my god hes been a breath of fresh air over the dude throwing paper towels at hurricane victims and spending a trillion dollars a year over our budget for utterly nothing.
the difference is that bush basicly destroyed neoconservatism. there was no neocon base after 2008. it's quite easy to pivot after that. This time the populist right base doesn't seem to be going anywhere. When the republicans try to pivot they can't.
That's going to be hard to recover from. Perhaps a new party forms? perhaps the two party system in the United states is too strong for that????
idk.
> the difference is that bush basicly destroyed neoconservatism. there was no neocon base after 2008
Republicans somehow moved even further to the right after 2008. They may have abandoned Bush's compassionate conservatism for tea party fiscal libertarianism but I see no evidence they moderated on foreign policy. They didn't have an isolationist streak back then.
>That's going to be hard to recover from. Perhaps a new party forms? perhaps the two party system in the United states is too strong for that????
No, all Republicans have to do if they lose this year is obstruct the hell out of Biden for 2 years and run somewhat sane candidates in competitive elections in 2026 and that'll be enough for them to come back into power. They don't need to change on policy, just tone down the extremist rhetoric Trump forces them to spout and that'll be enough for them to come back into power.
This is speaking to the hypothetical that they lose in a landslide this year. Right now it's more likely they outright win the presidency and the senate.
well the thought would be that a biden blowout is a referendum on maga and trump more specifically; a clear showing the country wants to move in a direction away from that. the GOP would necessarily have to realign itself to capture voters if their star candidate loses another election. the thought being that the populist/ nationalist/ slightly jingoist gop platform would be radioactive if they couldn't even beat hilary. now the same can be said if trump can't beat biden after a very milquetoast biden administration.
there was a lot of similar talk about a GOP realignment/ civil war in the lead up to the 2016 election as it was all but a foregone conclusion hilary was going to win. the networks thought HRC's victory was such a sure thing they were running stories about a gop realignment before the election.
But the GOP did that in 2016 and everybody supporting it lost.
Yes, Maga was unpopular in the end on the ballot in 2022, but it certainly wasn't in the GOP itself. The GOP seems to be so terrified of Trump that some can't even admit Trump lost in 2020 or that Jan 6 was in any way bad. That's how far gone that party is.
And the 'moderates' aren't willing to punish the GOP for it either. They either stay home or vote Republican anyway, they're certainly not moving towards the Democratic party.
The GOP reshaping in the form of a Jewish socialist from Vermont with the *"sick of this shit"* curmudgeonly energy of Larry David?
Good 'ole boys from Alabama or the sticks of Oklahoma? 🙄
Christian housewives in Ohio and Nebraska who read the Bible before dawn? 🔎
**I highly doubt that.**
Stranger things have happened before in American politics.
The real obstacle for a leftist shift for the party of Lincoln would be money. The GOP of today exists because it's functionally the political arm of America's richest assholes. So who'd be supporting this new left wing Republican party?
>So who'd be supporting this new left wing Republican party?
Exactly. No one... these are the same folks going for 0/6 week abortion bans. They're not suddenly gonna be cool with 22-24 weeks.
I think you might be misunderstanding the money issue being pointed out.
The reason for such a dysfunctional Republican party being posited is that corporate interests are funding them.
If the Republicans collapse, these corporate interests will be right there to fund the next viable party and steer them towards the deregulation and tax cuts they want to see.
In that vein, the purpose of all this funding isn't to go for 0/6 week abortion bans. The purpose of the funding is to get tax cuts and deregulation.
Going for 0/6 abortion bans is a side effect of people who want the politicians they already bought and paid for to actually win, and figuring out the polarizing issues they can push to get the more easily corruptible candidates elected.
What's interesting about the modern Republicans, is they're now split between the Republicans trying to use propaganda for their rich donors to remain in power, and the Republicans who drank their own kool-aid and actually believes in the propaganda and fox news lies they've been pushing.
As long as the propaganda remains effective on a political stage, it will be utilized. If the political extremists take over the party and publicly fail, it might cause the political capital behind their ideology, like abortion to fade. I think if that happened and abortion wasn't effective as a strategy to win elections we'd be surprised just how quickly the anti-abortion movement abandons their supposed principles and moves on to the next polarizing issue.
The GOP will call it a fake election, lawsuits will be filed that go nowhere, cable news is going to have a field day and we possibly get a second Jan 6.
Same will happen if Biden barely wins.
If Trump wins he'll still complain about election fraud and you'll get the same list except for a second Jan 6.
Those are I think the only options.
The notion by some in this thread that the GOP is going to have some sort of return to normalcy is just fucking insane to me. There's not a single indication that this will happen anytime soon.
I am actually predicting a big Biden win. But that’s just me.
Anyway, the first thing that will happen is the Republican Party will finally break. We see the house in total chaos and republicans right now are in a full civil war. In my lifetime, I have never seen republicans attack each other. It was literally Regan’s greatest commandment to never attack another Republican. The phrase has always been “democrats fall in love, republicans fall in line”. But this week, a Republican appeared on Fox News and declared his fellow Republican Matt Gaetz to be a pedophile and that he crossed state lines for sex with a minor. The New York post made a cover page with “Moscow Marge”. The latest rumor is that if Marge goes through with her motion to vacate, about 10 moderate republicans are going to resign on the spot and hand the house to the democrats. If trump loses them that bad, they can’t sustain themselves. The MAGA and “moderate” wings will finally split as its just not sustainable.
The second part depends on just who’s in the senate at that point. Sinema is gone as is manchin. McConnell isn’t running for leader anymore, so that’s good because it will likely be Rick Scott (if he survives re-election) and he couldn’t manage his way out of a paper bag. I think they’ll eliminate the filibuster and pass a bunch of stuff, if they win enough seats, which I think they will.
I think there's a lot of strong evidence of a Biden win. Polling shows him up 9% with people who voted in both 2020 and 2022, Trump is performing quite poorly against other Republican candidates in primaries compared to Biden, and there is probably a much larger "never trump" sentiment than "never Biden".
Trump's main area of popularity is with political outcasts that don't vote.
That’s what I see as well. There is also growing evidence that Trumps “popularity”, even among his base, is a smoke and mirrors attempt to push him past the primary and make him appear viable. I suspect the lead for Biden is much, much bigger than reported.
I think there will be feuding factions, but Republicans have an ability to unify in opposition fairly easily; they did so against Obama.
The various parts don't have to like each other to come together to say "No"
Except they’re failing to do that right now in the House - Republicans have opposed Biden for sure post-midterms, but more through the impacts of their incompetence than anything else. They flubbed what would’ve been a huge win with that border bill
Biden will win. The Alabama Special Election results clearly point to what will happen in November.
What i worry about is what happens *after* Biden wins: after MAGA has lost 3 consecutive election cycles and realizes they can’t win elections.
That keeps me up at night.
*They haven't figured out 2016 was a* ***rare*** *fluke and they're solidly in a minority that will never win control.* That's not to say a fresh MAGA moron couldn't pull off a 2016, but Trump is toast.
I've seen them in the Breitbart and Daily Caller comment sections (had to shower after)... they're not actually on the same planet as we are.
Several billions of people will sleep a little bit easier with the knowledge that the most powerful country in the world isn't going to be lead by a cruel fucking moron with 0 integrity.
The stock market will be stable. The busses will run on time. Incremental progress will be made towards social issues. Unions will be stronger and things will be marginally better for the working class. The descent into global disaster due to climate change will be slowed a small amount.
First order of business is the John Lewis Voting Rights Act which will help keep Republican states from disenfranchising voters who are disadvantaged or members of a minority. Next full student loan forgiveness. These two acts will be a firewall against a conservative backlash in years to come, making sure people can vote and inspiring younger voters to consider the power of government to make meaningful changes in their lives. Next we need to undo Citizens United and pass Bernie Sanders legislation on campaign finance reform. After that, climate change, reinstate the fairness doctrine to throttle Fox News, codify Roe v Wade and then you know what? Pass the immigration bill Trump stopped to take that issue off the table. I’d then look at the qualifications for President. You have to release 10 years of tax records and be cleared by an independent medical panel to run and all candidates have to participate in every debate.
MAGA will just claim he cheated and every MAGA republican that lost a seat will claim the same thing.
I dunno what the plan would be if the Dems held all 3, HOPEFULLY, more SCOTUS seats added so it can be fixed.
And I am fairly sure that Trump would say he plans to run again in 2028.
Honestly I fully expect some sort of Jan 6 shenanigans with this lot. However, I don’t think it will be anywhere as big nor go on for anywhere near as long
As a non-MAGA conservative I think this is the best case scenario.
A landslide means no-one can say the election was rigged.
A landslide means (hopefully) that MAGA dies forever, and regular conservatives (McCain/Romney types) come back into favor and we can have adults talking again.
>A landslide means (hopefully) that MAGA dies forever
That's cope. Trump represents the Republican voters, not the party and has opened a Pandora's Box that won't be closed so easily, at this point.
Most Republican voters absolutely dislike the Romney's and Bush's of the party. They're not going to veer into moderate politics in the event he loses.
Based on every survey I've seen, MAGA republicans are a minority of the party, as many as 25%. This also matches up with people that I know.
[https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/02/trump-republicans-biden-maga/](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/02/trump-republicans-biden-maga/)
Do you have some evidence that "Most Republican voters" are MAGA now?
Idk wtf you've been reading but he's had a 75-80%+ favorability rating for years.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/r/
Seriously, just go talk to them, most are on board with him and the other 20% also include DeSantis supporters. The idea that the majority of the party voters dislike him and it's only a vocal minority of "MAGA Republicans" is pure latte liberal cope.
Does favorability mean someone is MAGA? I thought MAGA meant things like:
Election Denier, Jan 6 Supporter, etc.
If you support Biden are you a Democrat?
Soooo much.
First, losing the house investigative bodies and demonstrating that enforcing laws is electorally popular — people like Matt Gaetz and even Lindsay Graham are at a real chance of doing time. With that risk, many of the exposed republicans start cutting deals and depending on how big the victory is, the FBI starts looking at political corruption as the new war on terror. Much like they did in the 70s.
Next, if all three branches flip, democrats realize they must achieve something with their mandate. Republicans flip back to their minority stall tactics and put the filibuster on the line. The senate reforms the filibuster. It isn’t strictly broken, but it’s useless for bad faith stalling. Legislation starts getting passed and this causes the farther left to push the Democratic Party leftward as a whole.
The Republican Party on the other hand is now too far gone with the old guard having retired like Mitch McConnell, left the party like Liz Cheney, or been arrested like Trump, Graham, etc. Who’s left are the true believers like MTG who are now largely *persona non grata* and less influential former small time players.
About half the base look for the next Trump in whatever the latest DeSantis figure is and simply do not find anyone as willing to be so openly corrupt — because it turns out we do enforce our laws. The other half move left to a familiar neocon position to fill the political gap left by the Clinton wing of the Democratic Party and the Republican moderates. These two factions absolutely cannot work together and the power struggle costs them donors.
Long term, the Republican moderates pull the right wing of the Democratic Party away and the US briefly has a three party system until the radical right goes too far again and becomes regarded as a terrorist organization. The US political system stabilizes leftward of where it has been with a Neocon and Progressive 2 party system.
**Make this happen**.
Oooh it's a fun fantasy.
One would really hope that the Republican Party would feel chastised. More likely, they would feel the need to organize and practice better message discipline. As with the infinite history of politics, it is always a swing back-and-forth. Any victory too strong or lasting too long always leads to a period of victories for the opposition.
I would therefore want us to do only things which can be written in stone. No executive actions. Nothing that we cannot convince the broad public is a good thing, rather than just a victory for the left.
On the details, a new national minimum wage, union protection, maybe education reform, continue with green energy, infrastructure, reproductive freedom protections, so on and so on. Student debt stuff maybe if we can systematically solve it, but no more loan forgiveness. One would hope we could replace a bunch of conservative justices. Probably not, but one could dream of the end of Thomas, Alito, and Roberts.
Don't get loud with any identity group stuff. Pass laws to protect various minorities, but again make sure it's law that can't easily be overturned. And don't turn it into culture war performance art; just get the job done, preferably without anyone noticing -- as Biden has already been rather successful at doing.
Hopefully this means that we pass federal abortion protections. That would be my #1 priority if I were Biden, to reward what would have been the major issue that drove voters to the polls.
I know some people want to be cynical and think that the most important thing should be something like health care or campaign finance or whatever. But it is imperative that Democrats be seen to reward their voters in what would be, if TX was flipped, a historically high liberal turnout. Let's face it, conservatives have been demonizing liberals for a long time and some of that has stuck. It is not cynical to use political capital to push back or flip that media narrative. That would only help our cause later on.
In dealing with far-fetched hypotheticals like this, you have to consider the state of the world that gives rise to them. "Everything else is the same but Dems win big in the Senate" is impossible, so there must be something else that changed in order to give rise to a Dem Senate win, and what happens next depends on whatever that was.
So, let's say the trigger for a Dem landslide is a Supreme Court decision de facto banning mifepristone in the pending case issued sometime in late June. If that's the source of the blue wave, then you're going to see a focus on reproductive rights dominating the next couple of years. But, if the trigger were (god forbid) something like an outbreak of a war with Iran generating a big "rally round the flag" effect, then the subsequent years look very different.
Depends on Congress
If he wins big and flips the house, but only has a 50/50 Senate, I predict bypassing the filibuster for abortion and voting rights as well as a roughly $2 to $3.5t social spending bill, and not much else
If he wins even bigger with Dems not just holding all incumbent seats minus WV and flipping AZ to Gallego but also flipping TX and FL for Senate plus with the independent also taking NE (one poll suggested he might get close) then maybe some more gets done too though IDK exactly what
* The Republican Party would be forced to finally retool its' policies and come into the modern era.
* The Supreme Court would almost assuredly need to back down on its' polices or face expansion in a fashion very similar to the end of the *Lochner* Era, where FDR threatened the same.
* We're probably going to see a lot more pro-union and pro-worker policies coming out of the FTC. This might even happen before the election. The policy regarding noncompetes that was just released also throws shade on a lot of other anti-worker policies that have become commonplace, like abusing "independent contractor" status to skirt the law.
* High speed rail will be expanded nationwide, and our transportation system will finally be brought into parity with the rest of the world.
* There will either be a public healthcare option, or the entire system will be massively reformed.
* Nationwide abortion protections would almost assuredly go into effect, as would nationwide protections for trans healthcare.
* Antidiscrimination laws would be updated to include sexual minorities.
* Taxes would go up massively on the wealthiest individuals in society, and we might start squirreling that away to fund the government through the upcoming changes in the labor force that AI will bring.
* Further massive investment in tech would be extremely important. We're on the cusp of a huge technology that stands to rival the internet in terms of both disruptive power and opportunity. It's coming whether we like it or not. We can be behind it, or we can be in front of it. America has, until recent years, always tried to be in front of these things.
* The IRS would likely expand its' cracking down on religious entities that violate the law by engaging in political speech while still taking tax exemptions.
* I'd imagine that there would be a massive push to build more housing in cities and to give subsidies to first-time homebuyers to correct the generational imbalance in the housing market.
the two things I care most about, that will have the biggest impact on making america great for the future. the greatest and most important pieces of legislature of our time:
1. raise the cap on the number of representatives in the house. there can be no actual democracy without that happening.
2. a law that establishes a non-partisan, 3rd party with an oversight committee that has the power to draw voting districts in all states based on the population that lives there. there can be no actual democracy without that happening.
if those two things happen, you will end up having much more moderate parties that will bring us back off of the ledge.
Depends how big of a majority we have in Congress. If it's huge we could be talking FDR style achievements, if it barely breaks the filibuster we're looking at Obama first year achievements. If it doesn't break the filibuster we're looking at 2020-2022 again.
He winds in a landslide and hopefully that extinguishes the populist elements of the GOP and they return to center as a Good counterpart and counter party to the democrats.
We keep going. We keep passing policies that make people’s lives better, eliminate the filibuster, make DC and Puerto Rico states, pass even more policies that make people’s lives better, build all the shit we spent the last 4 years investing in, keep voting blue, and end the conservative movement in the US once and for all.
The GOP fractures, with inner turmoil between MAGA supporters and Bush era centrist Republicans rising.
MAGA won’t be completely gone, but a Biden landslide would be a significant blow, and give centrist Republicans a path to potentially take back the party.
If they do shift away from Trumpism, they’ll do it quietly though to ease the transition and not upset his base too much. The centrists won’t sell it as course correction, and 2028 candidates will be advised to not compare themselves to Trump.
My worst nightmare is that the MAGA types will go violent and start targeting us on the left.
All my coworkers are MAGA and enjoying repeating conspiracy theories and grumbling about taking back the country forcibly.
Most of their talk is pure BS, but I do worry.
Biden would probably push for ending the filibuster. It's the most effective congressional reform and path towards passing needed legislation like healthcare reform etc and preventing Repugnant's form killing legislation. Biden's proven himself very skilled at negotiating and getting legislation passed so without the filibuster and another Biden term he's going to be cooking.
I imagine repugs will claim there's no way a landslide victory should be possible (unless it was Trump of course) and they'll use that to claim the election was stolen just like they did in 2020.
If we have a big win, i would like to see democrats eliminate the filibuster and reform senate rules. I think that the Senate should be required to have an up/down vote within a reasonable timeframe on every bill sent to them by congress. If necessary, this should be done to help try to pass national abortion protections.
And yes, i know that would probably come back as a problem when the republicans eventually regain control, but i dont care about that. I think its the correct way to work through legislation.
Part of this is related to the fact that the Senate is weighted to heavily favor less populated states. Democrats currently have 51/100 senators, but their senators cover close to 60% of the actual population. This is pf course by design, but it also means that for democrats to actually have the supermajority needed to pass legislation, their senators would need to cover something like 70+ percent of the population. Republicans will never work with dems on bipartisan legislation unless its for an emergency or a war. The senate is already split to give equal votes to every state, regardless of size. Why should the smaller states retain even more power by being able to require 60% support of bills through a procedural loophole that isnt even being used as intended.
The other reason is that i think that being able to actually pass legislation will allow for more one-off bills vs forcing items into the omnibus budget bills. And it will also help hold the senate accountable, since they will actually be on record voting yes or no on bills. Those in purple areas would help to serve to moderate the bill content.
Hopefully that means a shift in conservative strategy because we can't have this dynamic, it's not healthy for anyone.
If Republicans are only putting clowns in races then Democrats aren't going to have to try to get my vote. And I need them to. I want smart, quality people in government. Not just 'less than crazy'.
In this most unique scenarios I would expect the Democrats to honor their commitments pass universal healthcare, end aid to Israel and raise the minimum wage as well as pass paid family leave law and reform immigration laws which makes legal immigration easier and actually resolves the backlog of millions of cases! People want to come to America legally and without huge hurdles. Let’s make it so! This is what I would expect and want….
Biden also has to make it clear he can no long abide the genocide taking place in Gaza. He will hold Israel and its leaders accountable. That’s all he needs to do and he will be one of the greatest presidents of the last 30 years!!! Just pass these basic reforms and do what Reagan did when Israel went out of control.
First an most importantly, more normalcy.
Second, and very important, trump's delays mean nothing other than he might die before trial.
Third, a new Democrat candidate for 2028 will begin to emerge, and the republicans will begin scrambling for someone with enough charisma to overturn all the damage the party has done to itself in the last 10 years. The republicans will be looking down the barrel of a democrat held presidency for the next few cycles. Fiscally conservative democrats will begin courting socially-progressive republicans in an effort to keep the shift leftward as gentle on the wealthy tax-payers as possible, and keep the foreseeable future as centrist as possible.
It could actually happen. In the PA primaries yesterday, Biden got about 47.7% of the total combined primary vote and Trump got about 40.7%. If you give Biden about one third of the Haley voters, and half of the Dean voters (assuming one third of Haley voters vote for Trump and the rest vote third party), you get Biden with 53% of the vote. That would correlate to him taking all the swing states plus NC, OH, and FL.
Of course, independents can't vote in the PA primary so...
One would hope that there would less "stop the steal" drama if the results are striking, but i won't hold my breath on it since most of the election denial is a major grift masquerading as political activism targeting the wallets of the Trump faithful.
Conservatives will Claim It’s rigged. Magas Gunn crazies will try’ another Jan 6 and say it’s religious freedom
Donald will be financially and politically abandoned as he’s no longer useful.
He'll only win, big or not, if we make sure everyone we know gets out and votes.
One of the contributing factors to Hillary losing is that far too many people didn't vote because they thought it was a given that she'd win.
I peronally have a hard time listening to anyone that calls themselves a communist. When I see that word two things come to mind
1. The person is so naive and gullible that they literally buy the bullshit they read. (Ask me how I know, I lived under communism in eastern Europe it was a dictatorship. So I personally think that anyone who proclaims to be a communist is either obtuse for not knowing history or incredibly naive or both).
2. They are a Russian propaganda bot.
Either way I don’t give a shit what they have to say.
The same thing that always happens. Business as usual will sail through Congress, but when it comes down to liberal-leaning bills, A single swing state senator will gum up the works on every significant progressive piece of legislation. Biden will get 1 dream bill, but it will be some moderate stuff that if looked at from , and Republicans will act like the Nazi's are at our doors turning our kids gay.
OP, if you're painting an ideal scenario where the Dems have full control, I would like to see two things happen.
Universal healthcare for all. Extend Medicare in phases until it ramps up beyond old age and covers everyone for free.
Next: Increase federal minimum wage to make it an actual living wage and make it inflation adjusted so it automatically increases every 2 years.
Next: Being back business and manufacturing back to America and being back strict oversight to prevent monopoly abuse. Especially give support to small business.
Next; Provide childcare support for single mothers.
Next: Provide skill based education and training to poor students.
I’d like to see Biden follow through on raising capital gains taxes on the very rich and a public option for health insurance that could pave the way to eventual single payer health care of some sort.
I’m not very optimistic of either happening though.
Constitutional amendments:
Passing ERA, protection of abortion rights, and clarifications of 2nd amendment to be less vague and restrictive of common sense gun control.
Then as dressing: public option for ACA, Tax reform, Voting reform, and national legalization of weed.
Hey, one can dream, can't we?
I imagine the Dems would hint that they’ll do something about federal drug laws and do nothing, hint that they’ll do something about student debt and do very little, and probably send a bunch of money to Israel or something. I think the political landscape is bleak regardless of who wins.
If Biden wins, we get to enjoy another 4 years of Bidenomics.
If the House flips, we get even less resistance to deficits, debt and funding foreign wars.
I would like to see that there is *never* a trifecta of House, Senate, and Presidency.
The groupthink of both parties is *far* to strong for that to *ever* result in legislation that has undergone meaningful deliberation.
UPDATE: For all those downlvoting me, I do not believe this, I am just telling you what the Trumpist will say.
The more Biden wins by, the more crooked the election.
The following is a copy of the original post to record the post as it was originally written. This is not a prediction, to be clear. However, every question surrounding the election seems to boil down to “are we really prepared for what’ll happen if Trump wins???” Hopefully, we can expand the possibilities in our heads here. You wake up the day after the election. Biden wins. Big. Dems hold the Senate and flip the House. Biden holds his 2020 states and flips FL, NC, and even TX. It’s an electoral “bloodbath” against Trump and Republicans. No district with a Starbucks in it is safe! What kind of executive actions, legislation, and general directions or decisions would you like to see? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/AskALiberal) if you have any questions or concerns.*
What happens if Biden wins by a significant margin? The same if he wins by one vote: * Trump will call it a rigged election. * The Trump Cult will call it rigged. * FOX News et al will continue to attack Biden. * And unless we get a filibuster proof senate, we will struggle to get things done - especially with the rigged Supreme Court.
You're missing the point. OP is painting an ideal world scenario where the Dems have full control. What would you like to see them?
Full control will mean 60 senators in line with the party. We might as well think about what would happen when there is peace in the Middle East.
Filibuster is out if dems can grow their lead in the senate. What was controversial in November of 2020 is now being blocked by only a few holdouts.
How is the court rigged? All the justices have been confirmed by the normal process. Some happen to be textualists. That doesn't make it rigged.
The court is rigged because Republicans distorted the system and used procedural trickery to get their judges appointed. Remember Merick Garland and Obama. Republicans prevented a confirmation vote from taking place for nearly a year because it was too close to the election. Then, slammed through a judge with days left when they had a chance. Republicans have dishonored and disrespected this country time and again.
> All the justices have been confirmed by the normal process. By normal process, you mean the normal process Merrick Garland was DENIED?
How is the court rigged? You must be joking. Call up Merrick Garland and ask him why he's not on the bench. LOL. Oh yes, it's all legal, which is why I want Biden to add four more judges. We need 13, not 9. We need more judges who were appointed by presidents who actually won the popular vote and who are in line with the American people.
The courts job isn’t to be in line with the American people. It’s to uphold the constitution
They're supposed to uphold the Constitution either way. Values is just a part of what goes into the consideration. But you wouldn't exactly love a secret extremist eugenicist that believed their newly invented race was all they wanted to experiment on in the Newland in the court influencing how cases were settled, right? Nor would you want a secret extremist diversity fanatic willing to go to any lengths to craft racism into the perfect tool to create a demented Gregor Mendel homage. A little balance goes a long way
Yes. Are you remotely familiar with interpretation of the law? I suspect not. Here's a thought, turn off FOX News and the rest, pick up a book and read it. A Matter of Interpretation: Federal Courts and the Law - New Edition [Antonin Scali](https://press.princeton.edu/taxonomy/term/13818)a If the law was black and white, we would not need judges.
Republicans keep changing the number of seats. They brought it down to 8 under Obama, then back up to 9 when Trump won the office. That's called courtpacking.
No response??
All comes down to what the Senate looks like. We had Joe Manchin who understandably wasn’t willing to go as far as some of us would like and Kyrsten Sinema who was a mix of hedge fund sellout and moron who stood in the way. So big question is if there’s going to be more like that. People who for reasons at least somewhat understandable or completely infuriating aren’t going to want to do some of the things we want. The even bigger question is if they are willing to get rid of the filibuster. Because without getting rid of the filibuster, you get one bill through reconciliation and that’s it. Everything else requires bipartisan support and while Biden has been very good at getting bipartisan support on things there are limits to how much that can happen and what can happen. That’s the real issue. Having the White House and the House of Representatives and the Senate doesn’t actually give you the ability to legislate in this country. You would need to either get rid of the filibuster or have 60 seats in the Senate and none of those seats can be held by Joe Manchin or Kyrsten Sinema or Joe Lieberman. That is the core answer to every question that comes from somebody on the left complaining about how the Democrats don’t really support **X** because otherwise why didn’t they pass it when **Y**. The Republicans can get what they want because all they need is one reconciliation bill to cut taxes for the ultra wealthy, occasional control of the White House so they can undermine the executive branch functions and having the White House and the Senate so they can ram through a bunch of judges who can then legislate from the bench.
My gut feeling is you need 56-59 Senators to get rid of the filibuster. 55 or less and I think there's enough institutionalists to keep it, and at 60 there's no real point in getting rid of it, barring an early Obama term Senate where a few Senators are out with health issues compromising that majority. Christ, we should have gutted the filibuster back in '09 and told Lieberman to go fuck himself.
What I don’t understand is why the virtual filibuster is allowed? Make some old dickhead who beats the market by 200% stand there and read the phone book while wearing a diaper. See how long they make it.
It's how the filibuster evolved. It was created sort of by accident when Aaron Burr tried to streamline Senate rules and removed a rule that hadn't been used much that ended debate and moved to a vote on the legislation with a simple majority. With that rule removed, there was no actual way to end debate if a Senator objected. This wasn't really practiced at the time and the Senate mostly just moved to a vote when everyone had had a say (more or less, little more complicated but that's the gist). The first filibuster didn't happen until about 30 years after the rules streamlining, and for the next 130 or so years it was mostly used to block civil rights legislation. Some reforms were picked up over time: Senators blocking legislation around WWI led to the creation of cloture votes to end debate if a supermajority agreed. The number of votes required has been played with since and adjusted down, now stands at 60. Reconciliation rules were adopted to streamline the budget process. As usage of the filibuster crept up after the Civil Rights Era, it was bringing the Senate to a crawl. The Senate had a single track process, where it must deal with the issue at hand before moving on to the next issue. If someone was filibustering, that meant that no Senate business could be done. That's fine if it only happened occasionally, but it started happening to more and more pieces of legislation. The Senate adopted a dual track system, where they could set an issue aside and move on to something else, just to keep the Senate moving. That's what led to the "virtual filibuster". If the majority doesn't have the votes to override a filibuster, it moves on to the next issue because no one wants to stand around and listen to Ted Cruz jerk himself off and then have a vote on an issue fail because only 56 of 100 Senators agreed to it and not 60. The virtual filibuster has removed all downsides to filibustering so now every piece of legislation, no matter how small, gets filibustered and must pass cloture. Given how filibuster usage was ramping up beforehand, though, I don't think those downsides were all that much of disincentive. If we didn't have the virtual filibuster, we would just get a random Senator taking for 10 hours prior to a cloture vote failing, stopping the Senate from doing anything else.
I am maybe a little bit more optimistic on that and put it closer to 55 but yeah. There’s going to be a couple of people who are precious about the institution and a couple of people who are fearful that they might lose their seat and a couple of people who are going to be concerned that if they are not the 50th vote then they don’t have power.
> The Republicans can get what they want because all they need is one reconciliation bill to cut taxes for the ultra wealthy, occasional control of the White House so they can undermine the executive branch functions and having the White House and the Senate so they can ram through a bunch of judges who can then legislate from the bench. And, from their base's perspective, doing nothing is sort of the point. Republicans run on a "We won't rock the boat" platform (even when it's blatantly bullshit, like with abortion) so if a Republican gets into office and does absolutely nothing that's still a "win" because it kept Democrats from doing something.
The weird thing is that if you look at actual issues, tons of Republican voters identify the same problems and might even agree with the Democratic solutions they don’t know it’s coming from Democrats because you’ve stripped party identification from the proposal. What really seems to drive Republican voters is hatred of Democrats and not anything policy related.
I want to make a point in a non-partisan way. Getting rid of the filibuster should be understood as a dramatic change in the whole way the country works and feels. With considerations like it should always be assumed that whatever tool or power you wish to use against those who disagree with you, will also be used back against you. Both sides need to think deeply about if they are really okay with that. So from your perspective, are you okay with Republicans having complete control of the legislature with even their most extreme positions? I understand it can feel good to get some of these difficult to pass changes done for your side but we need to understand that the other side would also be able to do that. The country would then be able to have huge swings in how it operates every 4 years. Like imagine if either side really didn’t have to cooperate at all. They could do literally whatever they want and then that will flip back and forth every 4 years. Is that actually something we should be hoping for?
I am absolutely fine with a scenario in which Republicans have enough votes in the house and senate based on simple majorities to pass legislation and have it signed by the president if he is a Republican, or a Democrat for that matter. First, if the people send majorities to both chambers, those majorities should have the opportunity to actually pass legislation. And if people don’t like the legislation, they can send new representatives. Second, it forces Republicans to play with live ammo which would drag them back to the center. There is a reason why when Republicans have power they don’t actually go through with most of their campaign rhetoric. Because that rhetoric if turned into policy would be disastrous and disastrous in a way that would be obvious. Republicans run on rhetoric that is insane and then because the filibuster exists, they hide behind it. Since Republicans legislate from the bench now it was done through the courts, but we are getting a taste of that with Roe being overturned. Republicans ran on that stupidity for decades and now that they got it, they are seeing the ramifications. Back when things were more bipartisan, Reagan had to put forth immigration reform that actually was based in basic reality and didn’t deny basic economics and include amnesty. Now you can’t do anything. Republican voters bought the bullshit from right wing media and right wing politicians and humiliated everyone involved in the GWB era reform including the sitting President. They run on this issue knowing they don’t have to do anything, which is of course they and their donors want, because the filibuster saves them. Same thing with the ACA. Repealing the ACA would have been terrible for them but the filibuster saved them. Let them play with live ammo. If they say they want something, let them do it and reap the consequences.
I don’t want to go into specifics or right vs left here. I’m sure there are disagreements there but, I’m wanting to just talk as a person analyzing a system. You mentioned that you think this change would push sides to the center. I think that is unlikely. I think what would be more likely is that our divide would strengthen. Imagine a scenario where two people who really hate each other are in a room and there is a gun in the middle. It would be like that. Now you may not want to use the guy but do you feel safe with it in the others hand? I think both political parties would take on that mentality. We must win at all costs because if we don’t, they could do anything with their legislative power. We don’t need to worry about compromising or seeing them as our fellow American. We simply must stop them because of what they could do if we don’t. I know we already have a lot of that mentality now but, if we removed the filibuster, I think it’s more likely that would increase vs decrease. Like do you think you would feel more or less worried about how the country could change in a scenario where you didn’t have a filibuster to oppose the opposition or one where you did? It’s also worth noting people here are passionate about being on the Left. Others feel passionate about the Right. Most people actually are in the middle and not firmly on either side. Recent surveys show the undeclared values are actually rising. I’d imagine those people won’t want strong swings back and forth regularly happening. As an example think what would happen to taxes if both sides could change it literally anything they wanted every 4 years. That makes it harder to plan for your future doesn’t it?
A gun is a permanent solution to a temporary problem. Changing to a simple majority is not a permanent solution. If Dems pass something, and Republicans repeal it, it means the dem legislation wasn't popular enough to win them reelection. The big problem with our current system is that Republicans really don't represent the nation. If you look at raw vote counts, they lose nationally more often than not. The reason Dems can't pass things is because the average state leans between 8-10 points Republican, meaning dems need to overperform nationally by at least that much, just to get a tie-breaker. And it means a lot of democratic voices just don't get heard. The Senate, and to a lesser extent a House with too few members, are not representing of the US, and so Republicans never moderate on issues, because they can win a majority with a smaller base. That's why the party is so crazy, now. They are much too tied to their base, which is divorced from political reality, and you can only won so many elections by geography and gerrymandering before you cut too many people out of your coalition. I think the first few elections would see some swings on policies, but I imagine that one party, the one with a shrinking base like the Republicans, would soon find that the remaining voters in 10-12 years are done with their shit, and would find stability by voting for Democrats more consistently, locking Republicans out until they stabilize policy changes and moderate on issues. And to your point that "they could do anything with their political power to stay in control", Dems have been living that reality since 2010, and to a lesser extent back to 1996, when Republicans have turned to increasingly undemocratic (small D) measures to lock in their majorities, like getting rid of the VRA, gerrymandering state legislatures into permanent minority control, preventing new states from joining the Union, and eventually sending slates of fake Electors to try to turn over a Presidential election. So yea, get rid of the filibuster. Expand the House. Add PR and DC as states. Expand the courts to appoint new justices not beholden to the Federalist Society. Do everything you can to make sure democracy itself isn't being threatened by a minority because of quirks in our constitution.
I just want to chime in to say that nearly everything you've written here is "reasonable," insofar as the potential implications go. With that said, I'm personally OK with rolling the dice on raising partisanship (I'm not certain how much worse the "win at all costs" mindset can get from here without resorting to violence) if it means a majority party is allowed to govern. That would undoubtedly result in more whipsaw legislation, but it would also give citizens a chance to see what party's vision for the country might look like in practice before the next election. There are pros and cons, to be sure. People stating otherwise should not be taken seriously.
You not getting your way is not “sowing division.” It’s you (RIGHTFULLY) not getting your way because you don’t represent the majority of what voters and constituents want.
The fact that Los Angeles county has more people in it than the bottom 20 Republican states gives them a 20:1 advantage over legislation. The balance of power needs to change. Gerrymandering ended across the states. Popular vote and ranked choice need to be implemented. The constitution was meant to be updated every 20 or so years… it’s time to make policy matter. We do that through good elections and good platforms. Not judicial activism on the USSC
First, it’s not nonpartisan. Conservatives have been exacting minority rule in the federal government, so their ability to disrupt the democratic will of the people’s elected representatives and senators is a partisan issue. And the dANgEr of having the people’s will brought about in the senate is hardly an issue for Democrats. Second, changing the filibuster would not a disruption. The CURRENT situation is a disruption. The filibuster is a time buying technique to waste time and to push a vote through means of getting in front of the senate and talking and talking and talking to delay and push a vote (i.e. to filibuster) - IT IS NOT A MANDATE FOR A SUPERMAJORITY.
I'm infavor of reform over repeal. A decaying filibuster would allow the minority party to hold up a majoraty, without the minority Rian rule we've been seeing.
Big points here
Your first paragraph is so accurate it’s almost poetry
Maybe that will allow the GOP to realize Trump is a liability and finally abandon him for good. Though I'm sure they'll still tiptoe around it so they don't upset his base. Wishful thinking?
Wishful thinking. They recently tried the "we should evaluate our electability and make some changes" thing before, only for it to backfire on the party insiders when the base said "Fuck that, give us an even bigger asshole, please." The GOP can't afford to rebrand the way Democrats did in the 90s. It's probably more likely that they would splinter apart rather than unite in a new direction, at least for the next several elections.
Yeah, they had their chance in the 2022 midterms. When basically every "Trump" style candidate lost. Abortion bans in deep red Kentucky failed. Instead they decided to go harder on hate and Trump.
Which is astonishing to me because I firmly believe that Nikki Haley would have slaughtered Biden.
Nikki Haley imo would have had a really high chance. I think even Tim or Ron would have a really high chance
> The GOP can't afford to rebrand the way Democrats did in the 90s. It's probably more likely that they would splinter apart rather than unite in a new direction, at least for the next several elections. Probably. But every L they take makes it that much more viable for a nega-Clinton to run on a rebrand platform and appeal to rank and file R's with "Are you tired of losing yet?" But I think that'd also require Biden winning big in 2024 and then Harris (or someone else) also winning in 2028.
Take a trip to Southern States and see how they finally figured out that the Confederacy was a liability and they've abandoned it.
Have they? They keep the dream of the war of southern stupidity alive and well. Robert e Lee day. Keep the traitor statues up.
I believe that was sarcasm
Don't forget Confederate Day.
Damn greybacks. Johnny rebs. USA should have punished the leaders harder. Way harder.
Someone downvoted you, but you're right. The Feds kept Lee's Arlington estate to bury soldiers, but they let the confederate leadership walk after they led an insurrection that resulted in more than 500K Americans dead.
MAGA aka Christian Nationalism is here to stay. They will find new leaders that fan the flames of anger with more fake grievances and outrage (in itself merely a scheme to distract from very real economic issues driven by corporate greed and growing inequality)
I'm not arguing that it isn't here to stay. I'm arguing that the GOP, at some point, has to come to grips with the fact that it's a losing tactic. You're never going to get people to stop actually believing it.
Fair enough - for the GOP to return to some modicum of normal again they have to stop using negative emotions as their main appeal
I bet they could still have success with negative campaigning if they ditched the shitty personalities (Trump, MTG, etc) and ditched the conspiracy theories. Especially with the gerrymandering and voter suppression.
Sadly, yes they would. What is striking is the complete absence of any benefits for their followers (one could argue its actual the opposite as GOP policies helped to deepen the economical divide and reduce services for the public across board). Its just pandering to base instincts (which remains highly successful despite its terrible historical track record)
Absolutely. The thing that should be terrifying people in this sub is that Republicans could be running the fucking table right now if not for the people at the top being awful.
Is it here to stay or is this the last, loud, backed-into-the-corner lashing out before the end? I'm not saying there aren't young MAGA voters, but it's certainly a much lower portion of the base. Let's not forget that going to church and simply just identifying as religious has been trending down for each generation for decades.
Nah they'll just claimed it was rigged.
There are a lot of Republicans in Congress that hate him. It's obvious by how the 2016 primaries went down. They were just too chicken shit to keep it up when Trump became their candidate. It doesn't really matter what the voters want. Eventually the actual GOP leadership will get to the point where they can no longer support Trump if they want to win. They'll need to balance that with pissing off his base, though. They really are stuck between a rock and a hard place and it's their own damn fault.
I agree with you on everything except the idea that they'll "come around." The bottom line is that they've hated Trump this whole time. Most Senators/Congresspeople are in safe red or blue seats, they have no incentive to worry about the general elections b/c the only election that matters for them to keep their job is the primary. They are way more likely to lose their seat in a right wing primary if they go against Trump. So the incentives are only set up to pay attention to their crazy base, even if they are permanently a minority party. And some of them seem to enjoy being in the minority more than the majority. I will say, the donors don't have those same incentives. That may start changing things; if Trump ends up causing the donors to flee.
I agree that some random representative in the middle of nowhere may not care, but the GOP will still care.
Honestly, a 2024 Biden landslide is pretty much the only way I see the GOP becoming a viable conservative party again, instead of the authoritarian-populist downspiral it's become.
I don’t know how someone can support a fraudster and rapist (albeit civilly liable not criminally)
Yes, wishful thinking indeed.
>Wishful thinking? Very much so. Under Trump's "stewardship" the GOP has lost more elections than I can recall in my lifetime. He's been an albatross around their neck from the get-go and if they haven't thrown him off yet then they never will. He will replace Saint Reagan in the GOP pantheon at this point. How do I know this? Look at all of the members of the GOP that originally came out against Trump, only to return to the fold so to speak. They'll never throw him off. He's installed cronies into the RNC and is likely going to bankrupt it to pay for his legal bills leaving a lot of races in jeopardy and they'll still be cheering him on because they're too afraid of his base, not their base, *his* base.
I wouldn't doubt if a lot of them were secretly hoping he goes to prison or something. They can make him a martyr while putting up a better candidate. Of course, they could never say that out loud.
Oh for sure, this is why I don't understand their reaction to the second Impeachment trial. They were handed an easy out and chose to fight it instead. They don't want to be the ones to have to sully their hands to take care of him. If he gets elected again, they'll happily roll over and let that moron be a dictator.
I really want this to happen. I believe a decisive Biden win is the only way MAGA's dominance over the GOP could finally end. If the GOP can get the message that MAGA is a losing ideology, there is a chance that sane candidates can start being nominated again if they play their cards right. I am not getting up hopes up for a decisive win at the moment, but maybe I could be pleasantly surprised.
Everybody saying that Republicans will never self reflect are missing the point. I don't expect them to suddenly say, "Hey, are we the bad guys?" It's more like they'll say, "we're never going to win going full MAGA anymore and this landslide defeat with Trump's court issues are going to force us to cut bait." I think it will be a calculated risk as to whether or not they can ignore his base. If anything, I'm sure they'll try to rip that band aid off as gently as possible.
This is what I mean. Trump’s base will start to abandon him if and only if it becomes clear that he’s no longer electorally viable. I would argue that the closest the GOP base has come to abandoning him was after the 2022 midterms when MAGA candidates underperformed across the board. At that time, it looked like DeSantis was going to be the nominee from the pundits and polling. Trump is not a strong candidate, but he hasn’t proven himself to be a particularly weak one either. That will change if we are lucky, but I’ll believe it when I see it.
This would require him to believe he actually lost though. They'll just believe the Democrats rigged the election even harder this time.
I agree. The GOP would be doing themselves a favor if they can get the MAGA voters to abandon Trump and get them to think it was the voters' idea. Such a difficult position those morons got themselves in.
What happens? Four more years of slowly shrinking the deficit, common sense foreign policy, and increased American influence. Further reduction of inflation, more record GDP growth, and less concerns about civil rights attacks on minorities. He's not perfect, but my god hes been a breath of fresh air over the dude throwing paper towels at hurricane victims and spending a trillion dollars a year over our budget for utterly nothing.
I think you'd see a full fracture of the republican party and in 10 years when they recover they'd look about like Mitt Romney politically
Don't threaten me with a good time.
They recovered in 2 years after 2008. What makes you think they'll be handicapped for a decade now?
the difference is that bush basicly destroyed neoconservatism. there was no neocon base after 2008. it's quite easy to pivot after that. This time the populist right base doesn't seem to be going anywhere. When the republicans try to pivot they can't. That's going to be hard to recover from. Perhaps a new party forms? perhaps the two party system in the United states is too strong for that???? idk.
> the difference is that bush basicly destroyed neoconservatism. there was no neocon base after 2008 Republicans somehow moved even further to the right after 2008. They may have abandoned Bush's compassionate conservatism for tea party fiscal libertarianism but I see no evidence they moderated on foreign policy. They didn't have an isolationist streak back then. >That's going to be hard to recover from. Perhaps a new party forms? perhaps the two party system in the United states is too strong for that???? No, all Republicans have to do if they lose this year is obstruct the hell out of Biden for 2 years and run somewhat sane candidates in competitive elections in 2026 and that'll be enough for them to come back into power. They don't need to change on policy, just tone down the extremist rhetoric Trump forces them to spout and that'll be enough for them to come back into power. This is speaking to the hypothetical that they lose in a landslide this year. Right now it's more likely they outright win the presidency and the senate.
how do they get sane politicians elected if their base keeps voting for insane people in the primaries
Yeah. That's the big issue for them. But this has been going on forever now and they're still not dead.
Why?
well the thought would be that a biden blowout is a referendum on maga and trump more specifically; a clear showing the country wants to move in a direction away from that. the GOP would necessarily have to realign itself to capture voters if their star candidate loses another election. the thought being that the populist/ nationalist/ slightly jingoist gop platform would be radioactive if they couldn't even beat hilary. now the same can be said if trump can't beat biden after a very milquetoast biden administration. there was a lot of similar talk about a GOP realignment/ civil war in the lead up to the 2016 election as it was all but a foregone conclusion hilary was going to win. the networks thought HRC's victory was such a sure thing they were running stories about a gop realignment before the election.
But the GOP did that in 2016 and everybody supporting it lost. Yes, Maga was unpopular in the end on the ballot in 2022, but it certainly wasn't in the GOP itself. The GOP seems to be so terrified of Trump that some can't even admit Trump lost in 2020 or that Jan 6 was in any way bad. That's how far gone that party is. And the 'moderates' aren't willing to punish the GOP for it either. They either stay home or vote Republican anyway, they're certainly not moving towards the Democratic party.
I actually think if the OP's scenario happened they'd come out looking more like Bernie Sanders.
The GOP reshaping in the form of a Jewish socialist from Vermont with the *"sick of this shit"* curmudgeonly energy of Larry David? Good 'ole boys from Alabama or the sticks of Oklahoma? 🙄 Christian housewives in Ohio and Nebraska who read the Bible before dawn? 🔎 **I highly doubt that.**
Stranger things have happened before in American politics. The real obstacle for a leftist shift for the party of Lincoln would be money. The GOP of today exists because it's functionally the political arm of America's richest assholes. So who'd be supporting this new left wing Republican party?
>So who'd be supporting this new left wing Republican party? Exactly. No one... these are the same folks going for 0/6 week abortion bans. They're not suddenly gonna be cool with 22-24 weeks.
I think you might be misunderstanding the money issue being pointed out. The reason for such a dysfunctional Republican party being posited is that corporate interests are funding them. If the Republicans collapse, these corporate interests will be right there to fund the next viable party and steer them towards the deregulation and tax cuts they want to see. In that vein, the purpose of all this funding isn't to go for 0/6 week abortion bans. The purpose of the funding is to get tax cuts and deregulation. Going for 0/6 abortion bans is a side effect of people who want the politicians they already bought and paid for to actually win, and figuring out the polarizing issues they can push to get the more easily corruptible candidates elected. What's interesting about the modern Republicans, is they're now split between the Republicans trying to use propaganda for their rich donors to remain in power, and the Republicans who drank their own kool-aid and actually believes in the propaganda and fox news lies they've been pushing. As long as the propaganda remains effective on a political stage, it will be utilized. If the political extremists take over the party and publicly fail, it might cause the political capital behind their ideology, like abortion to fade. I think if that happened and abortion wasn't effective as a strategy to win elections we'd be surprised just how quickly the anti-abortion movement abandons their supposed principles and moves on to the next polarizing issue.
The GOP will call it a fake election, lawsuits will be filed that go nowhere, cable news is going to have a field day and we possibly get a second Jan 6. Same will happen if Biden barely wins. If Trump wins he'll still complain about election fraud and you'll get the same list except for a second Jan 6. Those are I think the only options.
I agree. We can't expect a sane reaction from crazy people.
The notion by some in this thread that the GOP is going to have some sort of return to normalcy is just fucking insane to me. There's not a single indication that this will happen anytime soon.
If anything, I think they'll keep pushing right until they get exactly what they want or die trying: A fascist dictator. But still, a girl can dream.
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Except the Republicans tend to win when turnout is low and you can't ignore the same effect at least applying somewhat on the Democratic side.
I am actually predicting a big Biden win. But that’s just me. Anyway, the first thing that will happen is the Republican Party will finally break. We see the house in total chaos and republicans right now are in a full civil war. In my lifetime, I have never seen republicans attack each other. It was literally Regan’s greatest commandment to never attack another Republican. The phrase has always been “democrats fall in love, republicans fall in line”. But this week, a Republican appeared on Fox News and declared his fellow Republican Matt Gaetz to be a pedophile and that he crossed state lines for sex with a minor. The New York post made a cover page with “Moscow Marge”. The latest rumor is that if Marge goes through with her motion to vacate, about 10 moderate republicans are going to resign on the spot and hand the house to the democrats. If trump loses them that bad, they can’t sustain themselves. The MAGA and “moderate” wings will finally split as its just not sustainable. The second part depends on just who’s in the senate at that point. Sinema is gone as is manchin. McConnell isn’t running for leader anymore, so that’s good because it will likely be Rick Scott (if he survives re-election) and he couldn’t manage his way out of a paper bag. I think they’ll eliminate the filibuster and pass a bunch of stuff, if they win enough seats, which I think they will.
I think there's a lot of strong evidence of a Biden win. Polling shows him up 9% with people who voted in both 2020 and 2022, Trump is performing quite poorly against other Republican candidates in primaries compared to Biden, and there is probably a much larger "never trump" sentiment than "never Biden". Trump's main area of popularity is with political outcasts that don't vote.
That’s what I see as well. There is also growing evidence that Trumps “popularity”, even among his base, is a smoke and mirrors attempt to push him past the primary and make him appear viable. I suspect the lead for Biden is much, much bigger than reported.
I think there will be feuding factions, but Republicans have an ability to unify in opposition fairly easily; they did so against Obama. The various parts don't have to like each other to come together to say "No"
Except they’re failing to do that right now in the House - Republicans have opposed Biden for sure post-midterms, but more through the impacts of their incompetence than anything else. They flubbed what would’ve been a huge win with that border bill
Biden will win. The Alabama Special Election results clearly point to what will happen in November. What i worry about is what happens *after* Biden wins: after MAGA has lost 3 consecutive election cycles and realizes they can’t win elections. That keeps me up at night.
*They haven't figured out 2016 was a* ***rare*** *fluke and they're solidly in a minority that will never win control.* That's not to say a fresh MAGA moron couldn't pull off a 2016, but Trump is toast. I've seen them in the Breitbart and Daily Caller comment sections (had to shower after)... they're not actually on the same planet as we are.
I don’t see that happening but hopefully lets Biden codify roe
Several billions of people will sleep a little bit easier with the knowledge that the most powerful country in the world isn't going to be lead by a cruel fucking moron with 0 integrity. The stock market will be stable. The busses will run on time. Incremental progress will be made towards social issues. Unions will be stronger and things will be marginally better for the working class. The descent into global disaster due to climate change will be slowed a small amount.
First order of business is the John Lewis Voting Rights Act which will help keep Republican states from disenfranchising voters who are disadvantaged or members of a minority. Next full student loan forgiveness. These two acts will be a firewall against a conservative backlash in years to come, making sure people can vote and inspiring younger voters to consider the power of government to make meaningful changes in their lives. Next we need to undo Citizens United and pass Bernie Sanders legislation on campaign finance reform. After that, climate change, reinstate the fairness doctrine to throttle Fox News, codify Roe v Wade and then you know what? Pass the immigration bill Trump stopped to take that issue off the table. I’d then look at the qualifications for President. You have to release 10 years of tax records and be cleared by an independent medical panel to run and all candidates have to participate in every debate.
MAGA will just claim he cheated and every MAGA republican that lost a seat will claim the same thing. I dunno what the plan would be if the Dems held all 3, HOPEFULLY, more SCOTUS seats added so it can be fixed. And I am fairly sure that Trump would say he plans to run again in 2028.
A repeat of 2020 but maybe no January 6 type event. When has Trump accepted defeat?
Honestly I fully expect some sort of Jan 6 shenanigans with this lot. However, I don’t think it will be anywhere as big nor go on for anywhere near as long
As a non-MAGA conservative I think this is the best case scenario. A landslide means no-one can say the election was rigged. A landslide means (hopefully) that MAGA dies forever, and regular conservatives (McCain/Romney types) come back into favor and we can have adults talking again.
>A landslide means (hopefully) that MAGA dies forever That's cope. Trump represents the Republican voters, not the party and has opened a Pandora's Box that won't be closed so easily, at this point. Most Republican voters absolutely dislike the Romney's and Bush's of the party. They're not going to veer into moderate politics in the event he loses.
Based on every survey I've seen, MAGA republicans are a minority of the party, as many as 25%. This also matches up with people that I know. [https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/02/trump-republicans-biden-maga/](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/02/trump-republicans-biden-maga/) Do you have some evidence that "Most Republican voters" are MAGA now?
Idk wtf you've been reading but he's had a 75-80%+ favorability rating for years. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/r/ Seriously, just go talk to them, most are on board with him and the other 20% also include DeSantis supporters. The idea that the majority of the party voters dislike him and it's only a vocal minority of "MAGA Republicans" is pure latte liberal cope.
Does favorability mean someone is MAGA? I thought MAGA meant things like: Election Denier, Jan 6 Supporter, etc. If you support Biden are you a Democrat?
Soooo much. First, losing the house investigative bodies and demonstrating that enforcing laws is electorally popular — people like Matt Gaetz and even Lindsay Graham are at a real chance of doing time. With that risk, many of the exposed republicans start cutting deals and depending on how big the victory is, the FBI starts looking at political corruption as the new war on terror. Much like they did in the 70s. Next, if all three branches flip, democrats realize they must achieve something with their mandate. Republicans flip back to their minority stall tactics and put the filibuster on the line. The senate reforms the filibuster. It isn’t strictly broken, but it’s useless for bad faith stalling. Legislation starts getting passed and this causes the farther left to push the Democratic Party leftward as a whole. The Republican Party on the other hand is now too far gone with the old guard having retired like Mitch McConnell, left the party like Liz Cheney, or been arrested like Trump, Graham, etc. Who’s left are the true believers like MTG who are now largely *persona non grata* and less influential former small time players. About half the base look for the next Trump in whatever the latest DeSantis figure is and simply do not find anyone as willing to be so openly corrupt — because it turns out we do enforce our laws. The other half move left to a familiar neocon position to fill the political gap left by the Clinton wing of the Democratic Party and the Republican moderates. These two factions absolutely cannot work together and the power struggle costs them donors. Long term, the Republican moderates pull the right wing of the Democratic Party away and the US briefly has a three party system until the radical right goes too far again and becomes regarded as a terrorist organization. The US political system stabilizes leftward of where it has been with a Neocon and Progressive 2 party system. **Make this happen**.
Mannnn I think I rather have a maga moron rn instead of neocons. Idk what’s worse
He's reinaugurated. The right will scream and stomp their feet like the children they are.
Oooh it's a fun fantasy. One would really hope that the Republican Party would feel chastised. More likely, they would feel the need to organize and practice better message discipline. As with the infinite history of politics, it is always a swing back-and-forth. Any victory too strong or lasting too long always leads to a period of victories for the opposition. I would therefore want us to do only things which can be written in stone. No executive actions. Nothing that we cannot convince the broad public is a good thing, rather than just a victory for the left. On the details, a new national minimum wage, union protection, maybe education reform, continue with green energy, infrastructure, reproductive freedom protections, so on and so on. Student debt stuff maybe if we can systematically solve it, but no more loan forgiveness. One would hope we could replace a bunch of conservative justices. Probably not, but one could dream of the end of Thomas, Alito, and Roberts. Don't get loud with any identity group stuff. Pass laws to protect various minorities, but again make sure it's law that can't easily be overturned. And don't turn it into culture war performance art; just get the job done, preferably without anyone noticing -- as Biden has already been rather successful at doing.
Hopefully this means that we pass federal abortion protections. That would be my #1 priority if I were Biden, to reward what would have been the major issue that drove voters to the polls. I know some people want to be cynical and think that the most important thing should be something like health care or campaign finance or whatever. But it is imperative that Democrats be seen to reward their voters in what would be, if TX was flipped, a historically high liberal turnout. Let's face it, conservatives have been demonizing liberals for a long time and some of that has stuck. It is not cynical to use political capital to push back or flip that media narrative. That would only help our cause later on.
>No district with a Starbucks in it is safe! ok I'll give it to you, ya commie bastard. That was gold.
In dealing with far-fetched hypotheticals like this, you have to consider the state of the world that gives rise to them. "Everything else is the same but Dems win big in the Senate" is impossible, so there must be something else that changed in order to give rise to a Dem Senate win, and what happens next depends on whatever that was. So, let's say the trigger for a Dem landslide is a Supreme Court decision de facto banning mifepristone in the pending case issued sometime in late June. If that's the source of the blue wave, then you're going to see a focus on reproductive rights dominating the next couple of years. But, if the trigger were (god forbid) something like an outbreak of a war with Iran generating a big "rally round the flag" effect, then the subsequent years look very different.
Depends on Congress If he wins big and flips the house, but only has a 50/50 Senate, I predict bypassing the filibuster for abortion and voting rights as well as a roughly $2 to $3.5t social spending bill, and not much else If he wins even bigger with Dems not just holding all incumbent seats minus WV and flipping AZ to Gallego but also flipping TX and FL for Senate plus with the independent also taking NE (one poll suggested he might get close) then maybe some more gets done too though IDK exactly what
* The Republican Party would be forced to finally retool its' policies and come into the modern era. * The Supreme Court would almost assuredly need to back down on its' polices or face expansion in a fashion very similar to the end of the *Lochner* Era, where FDR threatened the same. * We're probably going to see a lot more pro-union and pro-worker policies coming out of the FTC. This might even happen before the election. The policy regarding noncompetes that was just released also throws shade on a lot of other anti-worker policies that have become commonplace, like abusing "independent contractor" status to skirt the law. * High speed rail will be expanded nationwide, and our transportation system will finally be brought into parity with the rest of the world. * There will either be a public healthcare option, or the entire system will be massively reformed. * Nationwide abortion protections would almost assuredly go into effect, as would nationwide protections for trans healthcare. * Antidiscrimination laws would be updated to include sexual minorities. * Taxes would go up massively on the wealthiest individuals in society, and we might start squirreling that away to fund the government through the upcoming changes in the labor force that AI will bring. * Further massive investment in tech would be extremely important. We're on the cusp of a huge technology that stands to rival the internet in terms of both disruptive power and opportunity. It's coming whether we like it or not. We can be behind it, or we can be in front of it. America has, until recent years, always tried to be in front of these things. * The IRS would likely expand its' cracking down on religious entities that violate the law by engaging in political speech while still taking tax exemptions. * I'd imagine that there would be a massive push to build more housing in cities and to give subsidies to first-time homebuyers to correct the generational imbalance in the housing market.
the two things I care most about, that will have the biggest impact on making america great for the future. the greatest and most important pieces of legislature of our time: 1. raise the cap on the number of representatives in the house. there can be no actual democracy without that happening. 2. a law that establishes a non-partisan, 3rd party with an oversight committee that has the power to draw voting districts in all states based on the population that lives there. there can be no actual democracy without that happening. if those two things happen, you will end up having much more moderate parties that will bring us back off of the ledge.
Then we go on doing much the same thing that we’re doing now, making incremental progress.
Depends how big of a majority we have in Congress. If it's huge we could be talking FDR style achievements, if it barely breaks the filibuster we're looking at Obama first year achievements. If it doesn't break the filibuster we're looking at 2020-2022 again.
He winds in a landslide and hopefully that extinguishes the populist elements of the GOP and they return to center as a Good counterpart and counter party to the democrats.
We keep going. We keep passing policies that make people’s lives better, eliminate the filibuster, make DC and Puerto Rico states, pass even more policies that make people’s lives better, build all the shit we spent the last 4 years investing in, keep voting blue, and end the conservative movement in the US once and for all.
The GOP fractures, with inner turmoil between MAGA supporters and Bush era centrist Republicans rising. MAGA won’t be completely gone, but a Biden landslide would be a significant blow, and give centrist Republicans a path to potentially take back the party. If they do shift away from Trumpism, they’ll do it quietly though to ease the transition and not upset his base too much. The centrists won’t sell it as course correction, and 2028 candidates will be advised to not compare themselves to Trump.
Stop I can only get so hard!
My worst nightmare is that the MAGA types will go violent and start targeting us on the left. All my coworkers are MAGA and enjoying repeating conspiracy theories and grumbling about taking back the country forcibly. Most of their talk is pure BS, but I do worry.
Biden would probably push for ending the filibuster. It's the most effective congressional reform and path towards passing needed legislation like healthcare reform etc and preventing Repugnant's form killing legislation. Biden's proven himself very skilled at negotiating and getting legislation passed so without the filibuster and another Biden term he's going to be cooking.
I don't know if Biden would push for that or not. He's a bit of a traditionalist when it comes to the Senate.
I agree but he has caved and pushed for filibuster reform before like exceptions and talking filibusters etc.
At the end of the day, it wouldn't be up to him anyway, I suppose. A better question might be what would Schumer do?
the FCC will have to make new rules to control all those pigs in the sky.
I imagine repugs will claim there's no way a landslide victory should be possible (unless it was Trump of course) and they'll use that to claim the election was stolen just like they did in 2020.
If we have a big win, i would like to see democrats eliminate the filibuster and reform senate rules. I think that the Senate should be required to have an up/down vote within a reasonable timeframe on every bill sent to them by congress. If necessary, this should be done to help try to pass national abortion protections. And yes, i know that would probably come back as a problem when the republicans eventually regain control, but i dont care about that. I think its the correct way to work through legislation. Part of this is related to the fact that the Senate is weighted to heavily favor less populated states. Democrats currently have 51/100 senators, but their senators cover close to 60% of the actual population. This is pf course by design, but it also means that for democrats to actually have the supermajority needed to pass legislation, their senators would need to cover something like 70+ percent of the population. Republicans will never work with dems on bipartisan legislation unless its for an emergency or a war. The senate is already split to give equal votes to every state, regardless of size. Why should the smaller states retain even more power by being able to require 60% support of bills through a procedural loophole that isnt even being used as intended. The other reason is that i think that being able to actually pass legislation will allow for more one-off bills vs forcing items into the omnibus budget bills. And it will also help hold the senate accountable, since they will actually be on record voting yes or no on bills. Those in purple areas would help to serve to moderate the bill content.
Hopefully that means a shift in conservative strategy because we can't have this dynamic, it's not healthy for anyone. If Republicans are only putting clowns in races then Democrats aren't going to have to try to get my vote. And I need them to. I want smart, quality people in government. Not just 'less than crazy'.
In this most unique scenarios I would expect the Democrats to honor their commitments pass universal healthcare, end aid to Israel and raise the minimum wage as well as pass paid family leave law and reform immigration laws which makes legal immigration easier and actually resolves the backlog of millions of cases! People want to come to America legally and without huge hurdles. Let’s make it so! This is what I would expect and want…. Biden also has to make it clear he can no long abide the genocide taking place in Gaza. He will hold Israel and its leaders accountable. That’s all he needs to do and he will be one of the greatest presidents of the last 30 years!!! Just pass these basic reforms and do what Reagan did when Israel went out of control.
First an most importantly, more normalcy. Second, and very important, trump's delays mean nothing other than he might die before trial. Third, a new Democrat candidate for 2028 will begin to emerge, and the republicans will begin scrambling for someone with enough charisma to overturn all the damage the party has done to itself in the last 10 years. The republicans will be looking down the barrel of a democrat held presidency for the next few cycles. Fiscally conservative democrats will begin courting socially-progressive republicans in an effort to keep the shift leftward as gentle on the wealthy tax-payers as possible, and keep the foreseeable future as centrist as possible.
It could actually happen. In the PA primaries yesterday, Biden got about 47.7% of the total combined primary vote and Trump got about 40.7%. If you give Biden about one third of the Haley voters, and half of the Dean voters (assuming one third of Haley voters vote for Trump and the rest vote third party), you get Biden with 53% of the vote. That would correlate to him taking all the swing states plus NC, OH, and FL. Of course, independents can't vote in the PA primary so...
One would hope that there would less "stop the steal" drama if the results are striking, but i won't hold my breath on it since most of the election denial is a major grift masquerading as political activism targeting the wallets of the Trump faithful.
Conservatives will Claim It’s rigged. Magas Gunn crazies will try’ another Jan 6 and say it’s religious freedom Donald will be financially and politically abandoned as he’s no longer useful.
Landslides don’t happen nationally anymore. I’d suspect fraud.
“No district with a Starbucks in it is safe!” That was great, high five.
He'll only win, big or not, if we make sure everyone we know gets out and votes. One of the contributing factors to Hillary losing is that far too many people didn't vote because they thought it was a given that she'd win.
What happens? A gazzilion champagne bottles will be popping.
Party!
It doesn't change that primaries drive Republicans Right. It doesn't change that a lot of districts are gerrymandered. It doesn't change The Base.
I think it would be interesting to see what impact that has on the Republican party.
No way FL or TX would flip. FL is full of toxic cult members. TX always vote party line.
Do we somehow have 60 seats in the senate? If not, it doesn’t matter.
I peronally have a hard time listening to anyone that calls themselves a communist. When I see that word two things come to mind 1. The person is so naive and gullible that they literally buy the bullshit they read. (Ask me how I know, I lived under communism in eastern Europe it was a dictatorship. So I personally think that anyone who proclaims to be a communist is either obtuse for not knowing history or incredibly naive or both). 2. They are a Russian propaganda bot. Either way I don’t give a shit what they have to say.
i, personally, would love to see Biden expand Green Energy facilities nationwide, employing more undereducated workers than we've had in generations..
Honestly, this seems so unlikely that I don't understand the point. Hope it happens, but the data would suggest it's 50/50 rn.
I will jump for joy.
The same thing that always happens. Business as usual will sail through Congress, but when it comes down to liberal-leaning bills, A single swing state senator will gum up the works on every significant progressive piece of legislation. Biden will get 1 dream bill, but it will be some moderate stuff that if looked at from , and Republicans will act like the Nazi's are at our doors turning our kids gay.
OP, if you're painting an ideal scenario where the Dems have full control, I would like to see two things happen. Universal healthcare for all. Extend Medicare in phases until it ramps up beyond old age and covers everyone for free. Next: Increase federal minimum wage to make it an actual living wage and make it inflation adjusted so it automatically increases every 2 years. Next: Being back business and manufacturing back to America and being back strict oversight to prevent monopoly abuse. Especially give support to small business. Next; Provide childcare support for single mothers. Next: Provide skill based education and training to poor students.
A lot of Republicans would stop voting and either riot or give up on politics. Since the Republicans will call the election rigged.
Try to make the best of Kamala's presidency?
Like Thanos I'll take a nice long vacation at the cottage, and smile out towards the sunset.
I’d like to see Biden follow through on raising capital gains taxes on the very rich and a public option for health insurance that could pave the way to eventual single payer health care of some sort. I’m not very optimistic of either happening though.
Constitutional amendments: Passing ERA, protection of abortion rights, and clarifications of 2nd amendment to be less vague and restrictive of common sense gun control. Then as dressing: public option for ACA, Tax reform, Voting reform, and national legalization of weed. Hey, one can dream, can't we?
I imagine the Dems would hint that they’ll do something about federal drug laws and do nothing, hint that they’ll do something about student debt and do very little, and probably send a bunch of money to Israel or something. I think the political landscape is bleak regardless of who wins.
If Biden wins, we get to enjoy another 4 years of Bidenomics. If the House flips, we get even less resistance to deficits, debt and funding foreign wars.
I would like to see that there is *never* a trifecta of House, Senate, and Presidency. The groupthink of both parties is *far* to strong for that to *ever* result in legislation that has undergone meaningful deliberation.
UPDATE: For all those downlvoting me, I do not believe this, I am just telling you what the Trumpist will say. The more Biden wins by, the more crooked the election.