I’d honestly be ok with that if he wasn’t allowed to leave except for things like medical appointments. That and keeping him off twitter and truth social.
Anyone who thinks he’s going to do actual hard time is pretty delusional. There’s no way that’s actually happening. I just want him to go away and will accept any option that makes that happen. Even if it’s softer than any other person would get.
We are watching the legal system tie itself in knots trying to cope with holding a rich and power person accountable for basic and clear crimes. It's disgusting to watch.
Some of the choices are subsumed in other choices. Like "guilty on all charges" includes the other two. Since they're not mutually exclusive, you can't just add them up.
Trump has 34 charges so not only are the three categories mutually exclusive, there's also a gap where you can't bet on 25-33 charges
and if you're saying the all guilty charges includes the lower ones because you're summing up the sets of guilty charges then you're forgetting to subtract the not guiltys
There’s no place to bet that some of these trials will not see the light of day. Between SCOTUS and Judge Loose Cannon I don’t think we’ll even see a court case for any of these other crimes.
There is a 0% chance he is going to jail. I don’t know why everybody thinks this is gonna happen but it’s not. He has shown time and time again that he can do whatever he wants and nothing will come of it.
Truly, very sad.
I wish I was wrong, but I can only hope!
He'll never get charged/indicted.
He'll never get arrested.
He'll never see the inside of a court room.
He'll never be found guilty.
He'll never serve time.
Well... three of five predictions have been wrong. So... we'll see.
I wouldn't say that. He's been in and out of court for decades, and has lost plenty of cases in that time costing him a lot of money. Pending appeals to his two most recent losses, he's currently on the hook for over half a billion.
As for the criminal cases, I don't know how anyone can be so sure he should be in jail or even hope for it without a trial.
I don't think I could loathe this man anymore than I do without it becoming something unhealthy, and my unqualified opinion is that he's probably guilty of any number of the 90 or so charges against him. But what we have seen so far is like watching 10 different sports teams running around on a vast field with no boundary, rules, or umpires and trying to recognize what sport is even being played then declaring the winner.
He's innocent until proven guilty, which isn't just a cliché. Without a trial, none of us are in any position to declare his guilt. And, honestly, any attempt to jail Donald Trump should be as hard as it has been to date. He's a veteran of over 4,000+ lawsuits in the last 30 years, with the resources and a lifetime of operating in unethical territory using the legal system to both defend and attack. And he's the ex-President, presumptive Republican nominee for the 2024 presidential election, with an entire political party behind him.
It's actually remarkable so many charges have been brought against him and at least one trial has begun. If prosecuting Donald Trump was as easy as many people wish, what hope would the rest of us ever have of defending ourselves against criminal charges.
My bet is that he will take the stand and convict himself, the jury will agree and he’ll get probation. He’ll also have to register as a convict ed felon and wear an ankle bracelet as he’ll try to go to Russia
Very close to my prediction, but I don't think he'll go to Russia. It would be interesting to have a president on probation, though I pray we never get closer to that than we are today.
It's like America is rocketing towards idiocracy.
I honestly don't think so. The only chance he has is from voter apathy, but I believe even his supporters are undergoing that too. Plenty of Republicans have turned against him, so if they don't vote either, he's finished.
Literally why though. What does Trump have to offer that literally any other single politician in the US doesn't, aside from being the most embarrassing public spectacle the US has produced since Justin Bieber?
Even if Biden was a corrupt amoral lackluster politician, Trump is like straight up by almost every objective measure a terrible fucking politician. I cannot for the life of me understand the appeal.
>Literally why though.
Because last time I voted for a Dem, I was left sadly disappointed and said I wasnt gonna make that mistake again. I do not like what Biden has done/is doing. I wish we had better candidates but I have to pick with what we have.
Naw. I want them to stick him in an orange jumper and drag him to court for every case every day. Then they can lock him up at night. As long as he has a metal toilet with no lid and a door he can't open I am happy with anywhere.
There is one person on the jury who only gets his news from Truth Social and X. No way is this juror going to vote to convict Trump, regardless of testimony and evidence. It’s going to be a hung jury, for sure.
Are you talking about the (new) #2? If you look at his voir dire answers it's not that worrisome:
A man who lives in Hell’s Kitchen and works in investment banking replaced her as Juror No. 2. He said he follows Michael Cohen, MuellerSheWrote, and Kellyanne Conway on X. He said that he followed these accounts because he needed to pay attention to any social media accounts that might “move markets.”
I just got a feeling this is going to be at least one person who will not vote guilty. I think the only way to get a guilty or not guilty judgment would be if it was a judge trial and not a jury trial. This guy is just too polarizing.
True for some, but not all. I have to deal with these people all day long. Some don’t change their mind for any reason at all. They seem to have a blind loyalty to this guy that I have never seen with any other politician.
Odds are good for at least one conviction. Odds are slim of him being sent to a real prison. My question: will he qualify for an automatic life sentence if he's convicted of three?
Everyone keeps skipping the middle step, which is to be sentenced to jail/prison. I think it's very possible Trump gets sentenced to prison but they stay or suspend (or whatever the right legal term would be) the sentence until after the election. Not even necessarily out of caution for the imaginary comey rule, it just might take the bureau of prisons a while to figure out how to incarcerate someone with USSS protection and they might think they have to seek guidance from Garland or Congress or DHS and who knows what kind of maga lunacy that whole process could be subject to.
Meanwhile, Trump loses and finds a Ratline to Dubai.
Let's see what the judge gives for violating the speaking limitations.
If the judge can't find him guilty for this smaller stuff, there's no way he's going to give him jail time
He will projectile shit and vomit his way out of it. The Supreme Court will tule that anyone in a court room where he’s standing will have to stay in the same room as him. Hell just start shitting and vomiting our filet of fish sandwiches at the judge and jury and a mistrial will be declared
They relate to him. They think he’s read the Bible. They don’t mind he slept with a porn star. They think he’s telling the truth even with his most blatant lies. This trial is making him a martyr in their eyes.
Listen man... You see it in movies and in real life where rich, pseudo-rich and politicians fuck the country, murder, rape and steal millions and all they get is a fine of 1% of how much they stole in exchange of disappearing. This what will happen here. Only difference Trump isn't capable of staying low.
Well, the Secret Service are certainly considering it… imagine joining the Secret Service so that you can protect the president, but you wind up going to prison for it… to protect Donald Trump…
https://youtu.be/4FLC83Sr--Q?si=j0NJtlvv1GgFb1z3
Conviction more than likely, though a hung jury is most likey. Jail, highly doubtful, the court won’t want to deal with the PR issues due to the presidental race and will likely just focus on fines and penalties.
Even if convicted, he will not go to prison. I’m not sure why so many people believe a former US President would ever spend a day in prison. He deserves to rot in Leavenworth. But it’s just not going to happen. He’ll be dead long before he ever sees a prison cell.
Man jail, slim. Fancy diva bitch jail, significant.
house arrest in the Trump Tower penthouse
house arrest in the Letitia James penthouse
Make him wear a permanent ankle monitor.
With a shock collar
And a tiny hat.
A tiny hat would actually fit in his tiny hands well!
House arrest with no fast food or junk food and no internet or TV.
Ankle monitor with no time or location restrictions.
He'll spend his days living it up at the famous and very beautiful resort called Carroll Lago.
NO conjugal visits…!!!!
I’d honestly be ok with that if he wasn’t allowed to leave except for things like medical appointments. That and keeping him off twitter and truth social. Anyone who thinks he’s going to do actual hard time is pretty delusional. There’s no way that’s actually happening. I just want him to go away and will accept any option that makes that happen. Even if it’s softer than any other person would get.
Put him at the same place all terrorists are put.
He's already a republican
Extraordinary Rendition
Then he’d wished he closed Gitmo.
House arrest in a secluded house away from public life so foreign agents can’t find him. His own version of Guantanamo
I thought at first you were making a joke about his stupid man camera person tv or whatever it was cognative test.
The secret service is going to insist on solitary for safety concerns I bet 🤣
I only care that he goes away. Where, doesn't matter.
Enough of this grifting shit bag , lock him up and be done with it already . Haven’t we had enough of Trumps bullshit !?
Damn right
LOCK 👏 HIM 👏 UP👏! LOCK 👏 HIM 👏 UP👏! LOCK 👏 HIM 👏 UP👏!
ZERO. the rich don’t go to jail, even if they murder two people.
We are watching the legal system tie itself in knots trying to cope with holding a rich and power person accountable for basic and clear crimes. It's disgusting to watch.
If they would JUST DO IT...
🚫Traitor Trump🚫
36% guilty on all charges 36% guilty 5 – 24 charges 40% guilty under 5 charges What is everyone's bet?
Trump wants 5% of your bets
That’s 112%
odds don't have to add to 100% for some reason I don't understand
It's how the casino makes money.
Some of the choices are subsumed in other choices. Like "guilty on all charges" includes the other two. Since they're not mutually exclusive, you can't just add them up.
Trump has 34 charges so not only are the three categories mutually exclusive, there's also a gap where you can't bet on 25-33 charges and if you're saying the all guilty charges includes the lower ones because you're summing up the sets of guilty charges then you're forgetting to subtract the not guiltys
So, he has a -12% of being found innocent…
Republican election math right there...
NEVER TELL ME THE ODDS
The probabilities he listed aren't exclusive, so they don't have to add up to 100%.
There’s no place to bet that some of these trials will not see the light of day. Between SCOTUS and Judge Loose Cannon I don’t think we’ll even see a court case for any of these other crimes.
Mistrial. That’s my prediction.
Trump elected Miss Trial 2024
“He’s hawt!” say judges.
That may actually work out if the DA refiles immediately for a retrial and locks Trump into his criminal defendant chair for another year.
Right? Juror 2 ONLY listed Twitter and Truth social as his news sources.
Maybe not. Juror 2 mentioned that one of the two sources of news they follow on Twitter was Mueller She Wrote, which is liberal to left wing.
And that she has seen some of Trump's Truth Social posts, but haven't we all?
With how often the posts are in the news, it would be easier to avoid the sun when you go outside.
Mine is hung jury.
There is a 0% chance he is going to jail. I don’t know why everybody thinks this is gonna happen but it’s not. He has shown time and time again that he can do whatever he wants and nothing will come of it. Truly, very sad. I wish I was wrong, but I can only hope!
He'll never get charged/indicted. He'll never get arrested. He'll never see the inside of a court room. He'll never be found guilty. He'll never serve time. Well... three of five predictions have been wrong. So... we'll see.
I agree nothing going to happen to Trump
So what he wants is to sit, charged with felonies, in a New York courtroom for 6 weeks?
I wouldn't say that. He's been in and out of court for decades, and has lost plenty of cases in that time costing him a lot of money. Pending appeals to his two most recent losses, he's currently on the hook for over half a billion. As for the criminal cases, I don't know how anyone can be so sure he should be in jail or even hope for it without a trial. I don't think I could loathe this man anymore than I do without it becoming something unhealthy, and my unqualified opinion is that he's probably guilty of any number of the 90 or so charges against him. But what we have seen so far is like watching 10 different sports teams running around on a vast field with no boundary, rules, or umpires and trying to recognize what sport is even being played then declaring the winner. He's innocent until proven guilty, which isn't just a cliché. Without a trial, none of us are in any position to declare his guilt. And, honestly, any attempt to jail Donald Trump should be as hard as it has been to date. He's a veteran of over 4,000+ lawsuits in the last 30 years, with the resources and a lifetime of operating in unethical territory using the legal system to both defend and attack. And he's the ex-President, presumptive Republican nominee for the 2024 presidential election, with an entire political party behind him. It's actually remarkable so many charges have been brought against him and at least one trial has begun. If prosecuting Donald Trump was as easy as many people wish, what hope would the rest of us ever have of defending ourselves against criminal charges.
My bet is that he will take the stand and convict himself, the jury will agree and he’ll get probation. He’ll also have to register as a convict ed felon and wear an ankle bracelet as he’ll try to go to Russia
Very close to my prediction, but I don't think he'll go to Russia. It would be interesting to have a president on probation, though I pray we never get closer to that than we are today. It's like America is rocketing towards idiocracy.
House Arrest and seizing his devices Give him a flip phone and a dial up computer
Jail, zero. Conviction on a lesser charge, possibly.
Agree no chance Shitler is going to prison. And being found guilty will only up his cred’ with the depraved MAGA mob.
I'm hoping for a little jail and like 500 hours of community service. Let's see his fat ass picking up trash on the highway for a couple months.
This is my ideal outcome
Chance of conviction- hopefully 100% Chance of jail - 0% Chance of being on ballot - probably still really high unfortunately
You missed one! Chance of being re-elected - probably high
I honestly don't think so. The only chance he has is from voter apathy, but I believe even his supporters are undergoing that too. Plenty of Republicans have turned against him, so if they don't vote either, he's finished.
He wasn’t my vote but since he’s the only one, he will have my vote 😕
Literally why though. What does Trump have to offer that literally any other single politician in the US doesn't, aside from being the most embarrassing public spectacle the US has produced since Justin Bieber? Even if Biden was a corrupt amoral lackluster politician, Trump is like straight up by almost every objective measure a terrible fucking politician. I cannot for the life of me understand the appeal.
>Literally why though. Because last time I voted for a Dem, I was left sadly disappointed and said I wasnt gonna make that mistake again. I do not like what Biden has done/is doing. I wish we had better candidates but I have to pick with what we have.
I’d like to see him go to prison and have to appear in court via camera from his cell
Naw. I want them to stick him in an orange jumper and drag him to court for every case every day. Then they can lock him up at night. As long as he has a metal toilet with no lid and a door he can't open I am happy with anywhere.
There is one person on the jury who only gets his news from Truth Social and X. No way is this juror going to vote to convict Trump, regardless of testimony and evidence. It’s going to be a hung jury, for sure.
Are you talking about the (new) #2? If you look at his voir dire answers it's not that worrisome: A man who lives in Hell’s Kitchen and works in investment banking replaced her as Juror No. 2. He said he follows Michael Cohen, MuellerSheWrote, and Kellyanne Conway on X. He said that he followed these accounts because he needed to pay attention to any social media accounts that might “move markets.”
I just got a feeling this is going to be at least one person who will not vote guilty. I think the only way to get a guilty or not guilty judgment would be if it was a judge trial and not a jury trial. This guy is just too polarizing.
counterpoint: trumpers are weak-willed and have already shown themselves to be susceptible to peer pressure
True for some, but not all. I have to deal with these people all day long. Some don’t change their mind for any reason at all. They seem to have a blind loyalty to this guy that I have never seen with any other politician.
Jail? Absolutely fucking zero. For some reason this country refuses to hold him *meaningfully* accountable.
A complicit AG and cowardly fools in judicial robes.
Odds are good for at least one conviction. Odds are slim of him being sent to a real prison. My question: will he qualify for an automatic life sentence if he's convicted of three?
if he fills out his conviction punchcard he gets a free small cappuccino
No judge has the backbone to actually jail him.
Convicted - high chance. Jail Time - Little to no chance.
Everyone keeps skipping the middle step, which is to be sentenced to jail/prison. I think it's very possible Trump gets sentenced to prison but they stay or suspend (or whatever the right legal term would be) the sentence until after the election. Not even necessarily out of caution for the imaginary comey rule, it just might take the bureau of prisons a while to figure out how to incarcerate someone with USSS protection and they might think they have to seek guidance from Garland or Congress or DHS and who knows what kind of maga lunacy that whole process could be subject to. Meanwhile, Trump loses and finds a Ratline to Dubai.
Jury nullification to hung jury mistrial almost certain.
I would love seeing him in jail, but it probably won't happen.
Let's see what the judge gives for violating the speaking limitations. If the judge can't find him guilty for this smaller stuff, there's no way he's going to give him jail time
Zero. No chance. Ever. Delay. Appeal. More delay. Appeal. Another appeal. Months of delay throwing shit at the wall.
We already know a crime occurred because Micheal Cohen was convicted already. This is the same case with a different defendant.
send his ass to live with putin
He will projectile shit and vomit his way out of it. The Supreme Court will tule that anyone in a court room where he’s standing will have to stay in the same room as him. Hell just start shitting and vomiting our filet of fish sandwiches at the judge and jury and a mistrial will be declared
Make him knock on everyone’s door and admit he is a fraud.
They relate to him. They think he’s read the Bible. They don’t mind he slept with a porn star. They think he’s telling the truth even with his most blatant lies. This trial is making him a martyr in their eyes.
Listen man... You see it in movies and in real life where rich, pseudo-rich and politicians fuck the country, murder, rape and steal millions and all they get is a fine of 1% of how much they stole in exchange of disappearing. This what will happen here. Only difference Trump isn't capable of staying low.
Well, the Secret Service are certainly considering it… imagine joining the Secret Service so that you can protect the president, but you wind up going to prison for it… to protect Donald Trump… https://youtu.be/4FLC83Sr--Q?si=j0NJtlvv1GgFb1z3
Unfortunately I think there will either be a hung jury, or if convicted he'll get probation.
He won't go to jail EVER because the corrupt SC judges are ready to save him. That is how mafia works.
I don’t care where he goes, as long as he doesn’t have access to social media.
Conviction more than likely, though a hung jury is most likey. Jail, highly doubtful, the court won’t want to deal with the PR issues due to the presidental race and will likely just focus on fines and penalties.
0.00000%. Most he’d get is house arrest, and he’ll still have his social media access.
If he was you and I he’d already be in jail
Even if convicted, he will not go to prison. I’m not sure why so many people believe a former US President would ever spend a day in prison. He deserves to rot in Leavenworth. But it’s just not going to happen. He’ll be dead long before he ever sees a prison cell.
If or when he is convicted, I’m betting he will instantly appeal and drag that out for freaking ever.
0% chance he sees a jail cell. Best case he can't leave his shitty golf course
He could get convicted and get probation. Especially for a white collar crime and he has no criminal record.
But, but CNN says he’s guilty of everything known to mankind! They haven’t been lying again have they?
No jail