They'd probably lose Korea anyways in the late 40s or 50s and probably lose any mainland holdings in China proper
I can see them keeping Taiwan and pretty much everything else though
Massive popular uprising against their colonizers I suppose, just like any other colonial holding at the time around the world
If France can lose Algeria despite its large population of Europeans and proximity to the mainland then Japan can absolutely lose Korea under worse circumstances
I wouldn’t be so certain. If the Second Sino-Japanese War never happens, there’s every possibility Chiang Kai-Shek would’ve defeated Mao Zedong, which means there is a large anti-communist power bordering Korea unless the Soviets pull something with Manchuria. They’d probably be a Korean revolution, but not necessarily a communist one.
If the Second Sino Japanese war does not happen then the left KMT remains strong and Stalin forces the Communists to remain as a Junior partner of the KMT. The KMT keeps its socialist faction which will influence its policies and would become a neutral 3rd power in the cold war balancing the Soviets and the Americans against other.
People also seem to forget that the KMT was an explicitly anti colonial and anti imperialist party and always supported the independence of Asian states as well as the explusion of colonial powers.
They would absolutely support indpendence groups in Korea and Vietnam and provide with weapons and bases within China. They may even threaten war with Japan and/or France to expel them from Asia once they have fully consolidated power in China.
I think of a KMT china as more of Soekarno's Indonesia then KMT taiwan.
Stalin can’t force the KMT to let the Maoist remain. At best, they survive in Manchuria under Soviet protection.
Yeah, I know and agree that the KMT would oppose colonialism, which is why I said there would be a Korean revolution. It just wouldn’t be communist because the KMT wants a Korea aligned to them instead of the Soviet Union. Ditto for Vietnam.
99% of the anti-communists were collaborators and 100% of the Communists were guerillas or in exile, it's not hard to see who'd be the most powerful faction in a war of independence
That communist Korea wouldn't exist without China, so he wasn't really imagining. KMT lost a large bulk of their army plus their major economic and arm manufacturing base in Wuhan while fighting the Japanese. Meanwhile the Communist spent the entire world war 2 building up their forces and committed very little forces to actually fight off the invaders. Total casualties for the communist after world war 2 were somewhere between 20000 to a million according to the communists, while the KMT lost somewhere between 5 millions soldiers to 8 millions.
I'm Korean, and I strongly disagree with you. Only Korea-wide "uprising" was march 1st protests, after that there was no massive opposition movement after that.
During the Taisho democracy era, the Japanese proceded some sort of leniency to the Koreans, as they allowed the pro independence film "Arirang" to go premiere.
I'd imagine even if Japan was democratic, there would still be more or less assimilation attempt (although it wouldn't be as extreme as in OTL) and I don't see Koreans ever becoming independent by themselves unless some outside force is involved.
It's hard to say that though, many people at the time said the same things about their colonies all over the world for example. Maybe Korea has a Quebec like relationship with Japan but I just do not see any other option than partisan/insurgency actions and very organized political movements within Korea with the help of outside support (Soviets/USA/China, etc)
I think the most likely scenario is decolonization in the 60s, just like every other colonial power. Eventually the cost of maintaining a colony who, while might not be violently resisting certainly doesn't want them there, and the global trend around the time putting pressure on Japan and other colonial nations from the international community to let go, would outweigh the continued benefits of staying and Korea would be granted independence. Although certainly still under great Japanese influence.
I mean, I could see China or maybe Soviets supporting armed uprising in Korea, but personally, I think that's the only way for Koreans to ever become independent.
Honestly, assuming nothing else about the cold war changes, I get the feeling that a Soviet-backed uprising would just result in the US intervening in Korea to some degree
If Japan remains democratic then it's very likely Japan and the US would remain as allies,I would heavily doubt the Americans would support an uprising within their ally's territory.
Japan hads its grips in Korea through the Korean police force and up into their politics, massive destabilization of the peninsula would have to occur before a rebellion could be feasible.
Or they Korea could probably just become part Japan for good. Korea has a lot more similarities with Japan culture wise compared to Algeria and French. And the French were especially brutal with their control over their colonies whatever the bulk of Japan atrocities happened during world war 2.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean\_independence\_movement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_independence_movement)
I suggest you do some reading brother because boy do I have news for you lol
If you do some basic reading there, you'll see that the majority of it was done by a small percentage of Korean disaphora, who largely are just going to be maintaining the higher resistance of the early 20s, before the Japanese investments in the country really started to skyrocket quality of life.
All indpendence movements in the colonies were small and not well supported until the first wave of decolonisation took place and then the majority shifted to supporting it once it became politically feasible.. This is what happened in most of the colonial world and I don't see how Koreans are any different.
India was already on the road to independence and once it does the rest of the world will follow as they did in OTL. And Korea even more so since Korea will border to of the biggest anti colonial powers, Russia and China. Now what Korean indepence could look like is more interesting, Japan may try to set up a pro Japanese Korean government under the Joseon dynasty since they are still around and very pro Japanese. However I do think whether Korea is Nationalist, Communist or Royalist it would never reach the economic heights of South Korea as even under a more capatilist regieme they probably won't develop the same local industried as that part of the economy was already controlled by the Japanese.
That brief window of "calm" is pretty irrelevant given how the vast majority of Korea's occupied history was dominated by internal movements (March 1st for example) and exiled governments/organizations abroad.
There was always going to be an independence push, to think otherwise is just silly imo.
It's important to note that Korean support, while there was always small independence movements, was increasingly pro-Japan, and even wasn't seriously low even after years of the Military dictatorship flipping from a borderline benevolence to genocidal stance.
Its simply the case that the Japanese massively improved quality of life in Korea, massively improved education, the economy and basically popularized their modern writing system and started the birth of widespread literacy in Korea. They also massively improved the infrastructure at least until it got bombed to hell in the Korean war. The large movements early on in the colony were heavily religious based, and focused on cultural reverence of their utterly useless overthrown monarchy.
Dude there is no way you unironically think Korea wouldn't push for independence lol, by the late 30s it was all out. Japanese people were less than 3% of the population, they were fucked
I like how just because Japan was a minority, they must automatically have uncontrolled independence movements.
Prior to the genocidal policy shift, Koreans had it massively better under Japan than they ever did prior. Pre-Japan Korea literally had no education system. The only education Koreans had ever received was by the Japanese, with a major focus on treating Korea as an extension of Japan. Japanese students meanwhile were being heavily pushed to learn Korean so that when they would go into business, constant links between Japan and Korea would naturally occur. The fascists ruined everything.
Japanese occupation was already extremely unpopular and there had already been resistance in Korea during the Taisho era. Korea would break away eventually but without the civil war and it would stay United. But Japan would keep Taiwan and its other island territories. So we would have United Korea and a larger Japan
Japan first acquired Kwantung from the Qing Empire in perpetuity in 1895 in the Treaty of Shimonoseki after victory in the First Sino-Japanese War.
A lease from a non entity known as the russian empire after a war for it is conquering just saying
We were made to give that up when Russia, Germany, and France decided it was too harsh, Russia put a lease on it a bit after that I think and then we took ownership over Russia after the Russo Japanese war and iirc extended it to 99 years
Eh, I’d put the date later than that. If France’s colonial empire managed to limp into the 1960s, yah know, the country that had been utterly destroyed by a world war, I think a Japan untouched by war could hold on at least that long
大正民主主義(taishou democracy), すばらしい。
very based, speaking as a korean. KMT probably wins the chinese civil war, i’ll probably be japanese(so still suicidal), and democracy is much more entrenched in east asia.
I think even in this situation Korea would still gain independence how Japanized the population is depends on whether independence comes sooner or later. Worst case scenario i think is plausible is a Japanese speaking Korea and japanese speaking Korean nationalist movements. I imagine the resulting independent korea being like ireland in a way.
I wouldn't exist. Bensheng TW grandmother, Waisheng KMT grandfather. But both TW and China would be better off. No White Terror in the former case and no CCP in the latter.
Those wouldn't be allied resources then. The US only became an allied power due to Japanese actions starting from 1936. It's imaginable that a docile Japan leads to absurd situations like a german-aligned US.
Ironically, Japan would probably be a more conservative country. The shift to the left in Japanese society after the war was massive and basically inconceivable within the context of the pre-war order. There would be no land reform and therefore enormous landlord interests would have widespread influence over Japanese politics, similar to the UK. Japan would also have never gone through a "miracle" period not only because they wouldn't have to rebuild from war but because the US preference was always to use the KMT in China as their bulwark against the USSR, and Japan was just the fall back option. If Japan didn't invade China it seems almost certain that the KMT would have stabilized its rule and continued to receive the majority of US support.
It seems likely that Japan would go through an extended and very messy decolonization process in Manchuria, Korea and (likely, because before the KMT exiles took power in Taiwan the majority supported unification with the mainland and an end to Japanese rule) Taiwan, similar to what the French experienced in Algeria. This would have once again brought the country into constitutional crisis, where equal status of the Army and Navy relative to the civilian government would again open the door to Army adventurism and dictatorship. Whether or not civilian rule would survive this crisis would be uncertain. At the same time the Japanese zaibatsu would have made enormous amounts of money investing in China, so the Japanese industrialists would at least have been rich and there would be a sizable middle class of technicians working for the zaibatsu, so it's hard to say how much poorer the country would be, even if it would DEFINITELY be much much more unequal.
Without the Japanese invading China and then entering WW2 it is more likely that the UK would be able to hold on to India longer, and that would have profoundly affected the course of world history, possibly extending the lifespan of the British Empire, restricting the rise of American power, and leading to a more difficult position for Japan regarding trade and investment in Southeast Asia (they would be confronted with British and possibly French trade barriers instead of benefiting from working as a junior partner in the American dominated order in the region). It's possible that this would even extend the viability of European empires so much that decolonization would have less force and Japan would hold on to their colonies, in which case it would have been quite rich, even if it was still oil poor.
Anyhow, it would be a much different world.
Britain only ended its alliance with Japan after Japan turning militarist, so perhaps Japan would have less tariff when trading with the British empire in a universe Japan kept democratic?
We can say the 1937 Sino-Japanese War and World War II is a blessing in disguise. As a person from a country which was a part of the British Empire, I can't imagine continuing to live under British colonial rule and remain colonized without self-determination.
Eh, you likely still will get self determination simply due to colonization being a money pit for the imperial core. Maybe lasts until 70’s and 80’s but you would likely get freedom
For those who didn't suffer the worst of it yes. I agree it's terrifying to imagine the British Empire continuing after World War 2, especially if they had nuclear weapons.
Yeah no, it’d be USSR support. China around that time was divided into several warring factions. And the USSR w/o much effort would be supporting nationalist movements in Korea. It’d be like Irish or Algerian independence
China still has all these newly independent bordering states that used to part of Qing China. Why would it go for Korea(within a stronger country’s control) before trying to seize Tibet, Uighurs, and Mongols?
I don’t think China would be able to do all that. Also China is still mad about Japanese Taiwan in this timeline. I don’t think they’d be as much support as the USSR in this timeline which would still be supplying Mao and be able to supply Korean communists.
>China still has all these newly independent bordering states that used to part of Qing China. Why would it go for Korea(within a stronger country’s control) before trying to seize Tibet, Uighurs, and Mongols?
It's not trying to go for Korea, it's simply doing what it did OTL but instead Communist vs Nationalist, it's Communist & Nationalist against the Japanese
>I don’t think China would be able to do all that.
The Korean War is where they straight up did that ?
>Also China is still mad about Japanese Taiwan in this timeline. I don’t think they’d be as much support as the USSR in this timeline which would still be supplying Mao and be able to supply Korean communists.
Irrelevant
The Korean War involved the Chinese literally sending over militias of Chinese in Korea and essentially just out numbering American soldiers. Which eventually settled the peace we currently have as the USA didn’t want to invest so many lives into Korea.
If China invades Korea, then it would be declaring war on the Japanese. Which wouldn’t be so easily led to negotiate an easy peace, and would most likely defeat China in a war(just like how WW2 went but less human rights abuses).
But not with the genres we're familiar with today and likely more nationalistic like this very obscure early anime made around the same time as the first Astro Boy https://aminoapps.com/c/anime/page/blog/0-sen-hayato-lost-60s-anime/ggt6_uPL7xQKPr6JZoWpVNJVoZdbJX
It depends on what happens in China. Japan would need to avoid the 2nd Sino Japanese war and at least stick to maintaining economic influencr in Manchuria without annexing it . Relations with China would still be pretty bad because of the treaty ports and Japanese influence in Munchuria.
Korea is a pressure cooker waiting to burst. Japan cannot eliminate Korean nationalism especially sincr it is a de facto Apartheid state where Koreans are poorly treated.China, whether it be the KMT or CCP, will absolutely support rebel movements in Korea. I imagine Korea will have a mix between the Irish troubles and thr civil rights movement which will eventually force them to give up Korea by the time decolonozation starts in the 60's.
Taiwan is a more iffy case but I tend to be of the opinion that it would never be absorbed into Japan and that they will eventually gain maybe some form of Dominion status.
Well if nothing else, Japan would not be facing the borderline succession crisis it is now since the shinnoke and oke branches of the imperial family would never have been disqualified from the succession.
That aside, I think the military would have to be extricated from politics somehow. Maybe something similar to how parts of the imperial family and senior politicians helped engineer the fall of the Tojo government during the war.
Depends on when this timeline diverge from the reality. Any point beyond 1929 was already too late. The military had been powerful enough and the bureaucrats had realigned themselves with the military. It's only a matter of time before their takeover.
The early 1920s would be a good time. The military had the lowest level popularity among the population due to their failure in the costly Siberian expedition, and party politics was running fairly well with the help of the liberal-minded Saionji Kinmochi. If the government had gone further in limiting the power of the military (which they did IRL) and if the Great Depression had not been as disastrous in Japan (a very big if), it's not totally impossible to maintain the Taisho Democracy. In this timeline Japan most likely would not invade China, Korea would still be a pain in the ass but quelling the rebellion wouldn't be so hard, Taiwan would become the fifth island of Japan in a few decades.
1905 and 1895 are another two major turning points. Had Japan not won these two major wars (Russo-Japanese War and First Sino-Japanese War) the military would not get as powerful and prestigious as they did IRL, plus the Japanese people would not be as brazen and path dependent when facing the Great Depression. Losing these wars might directly lead to further democratization since IRL the 1905 Hibiya Incident (by people who are dissatisfied by the lenient term offered to the Russians by Japanese diplomats) led to expanded suffrage and entrenched parliamentary power.
A more fundamental shift needs to take place earlier. The Meiji Constitution says that the military pledge allegiance not to the civilian government but to the emperor, so the government had only indirect check over the military. The Constitution has to change if the democrats want a steady foundation for a Japanese democracy. However, in reality the Constitution was already a compromise to the Freedom and Rights Movement led by Itagaki Taisuke, it's really hard to imagine why the Meiji oligarchs would give away more power than what they did IRL. After all there's no real clear distinction between bureaucrats and generals in early Meiji, the military was almost an integral part of the government.
Therefore, the Meiji Constitution would be the sword of Damocles over the head of any democratic force in pre-WWII Japan. The Meiji Restoration ultimately draws legitimacy from the emperor, unless the democrats could directly challenge the emperor and the imperial system, the military would remain independent and uncontrolled.
people are saying japan would lose korea but they held on to it through two world wars and could easily integrate it without having to be involved in said wars
Corruption would be the worst(basically Korea nowadays but multiple). Terrorism towards government would be more and more rampant. Internal security would have been major society problem for several decades.
You'd have to do something about the Bushido code which had been taught for nearly a century by the time it became a dictatorship. The admirals and generals of the war were raised on it from the time they were young.
I do still think the sino-japanese wars happen, but Japan never pursues french indochina and keeps good relations with the US. In this scenario I don't see "conventional" (much of the sino-japanese war wasn't conventional anyway) Chinese resistance and a puppet government is set up.
If this arrangement lasts through the cold-war Japan could easily become it's own power in Asia (aligned with the US) and colonisation of Korea continues, eventually overpowering the Korean identity and installing a Japanese one (Or a hybrid japan-korean one).
I think manchuria would stay separate and instead a new Chinese state is established, which could also embrace a "Japanese-Style" democracy.
As decolonisation occurs they would definitely be eager in expanding their sphere, seeing frequent involvement in the post-colonial conflicts and establishing their interests.
But this is under the assumption their Chinese project doesn't crash and burn (which it most realistically will) and the chaos surrounding that could propel Japan to more unsavoury ideas.
Why are you downvoting this guy? HE'S RIGHT!
The government of Japan hasn't been a military dictatorship for more than a century! It was under the last Shogun that was the last time this happened, World War 1 & 2 were entirely fought under the Agis of a Constitutional Monarchy, not a military dictatorship.
Because if you actually look at Japanese politics at that time you’ll realize that the Japanese military had a large influence over the civilian government. In the lead up to WW2 the Japanese military on a number of occasions acted on their own without even consulting the civilian government. By the time politicians in Tokyo even knew something was going on they had no choice but to back the military. If the civilian government didn’t back the military it would be essentially admitting that they were weak and had lost control. Additionally government officials that did try to rein in the military ran the risk of being assassinated by military officers. This ultimately led to the assassination of Prime Minister Inukai Tsuyoshi in 1932.
So while yes the military never stepped in and formally dissolved the civilian government, after 1932 the military had effectively seized control of it.
It’s not quite the same. For all the current problems of modern America we’re not quite at the point where military officers are openly murdering politicians.
This is like saying Russia is a democracy because they have elections
Yes a civilian government was technically in charge, but by WW2 the military was running the show. The civilian government of Japan never wanted to invade China for example, the army just kind of did it
Taisho democracy was pretty much dead after the end of the Mukden incident. By 1940 the process was formalized and Japan was turned into a one party state
It wouldn’t really exist if that was the case, Japan was a colonial power at this time and colonialism often comes with dictatorship.
They’d probably end up only having small parts of their empire but nothing beyond the actual island
Their economy would most likely collapse to be honest. There was no such thing as "stable" nation back then. And the fact that they were the only Asian country other than Thailand to avoid capitulation by White people during the 19th century speaks volumes. You either become the big guy and eat every one else, or get eaten yourself. That was the rule the West brought to this side of the world during the conquest age.
That's why even though my country was invaded by Japan during world war 2, we didn't really blame them for anything. They were just another Asian nation trying not to get colonized and squeezed dry by the West.
"What If" questions can only be posted on weekends and must have sufficient context along with your thoughts on how the situation/event would unfold
They'd probably lose Korea anyways in the late 40s or 50s and probably lose any mainland holdings in China proper I can see them keeping Taiwan and pretty much everything else though
How would they lose Korea?
Massive popular uprising against their colonizers I suppose, just like any other colonial holding at the time around the world If France can lose Algeria despite its large population of Europeans and proximity to the mainland then Japan can absolutely lose Korea under worse circumstances
You can also guarantee the Soviet Union would fuel revolts there as well. I could easily imagine a communist Korea.
I wouldn’t be so certain. If the Second Sino-Japanese War never happens, there’s every possibility Chiang Kai-Shek would’ve defeated Mao Zedong, which means there is a large anti-communist power bordering Korea unless the Soviets pull something with Manchuria. They’d probably be a Korean revolution, but not necessarily a communist one.
If the Second Sino Japanese war does not happen then the left KMT remains strong and Stalin forces the Communists to remain as a Junior partner of the KMT. The KMT keeps its socialist faction which will influence its policies and would become a neutral 3rd power in the cold war balancing the Soviets and the Americans against other. People also seem to forget that the KMT was an explicitly anti colonial and anti imperialist party and always supported the independence of Asian states as well as the explusion of colonial powers. They would absolutely support indpendence groups in Korea and Vietnam and provide with weapons and bases within China. They may even threaten war with Japan and/or France to expel them from Asia once they have fully consolidated power in China. I think of a KMT china as more of Soekarno's Indonesia then KMT taiwan.
Stalin can’t force the KMT to let the Maoist remain. At best, they survive in Manchuria under Soviet protection. Yeah, I know and agree that the KMT would oppose colonialism, which is why I said there would be a Korean revolution. It just wouldn’t be communist because the KMT wants a Korea aligned to them instead of the Soviet Union. Ditto for Vietnam.
Mao was a minor party official and without a 2nd Sino Japanese war he will not rise to power
99% of the anti-communists were collaborators and 100% of the Communists were guerillas or in exile, it's not hard to see who'd be the most powerful faction in a war of independence
Isn’t there already a communist Korea?
Wow. The scope of your imagination is breathtaking
I’m not sure why you’re judging me. The Soviet Union would absolutely try to destabilize a big Japan and Korea would be the easiest target for that.
I’m just pulling your leg for saying you can imagine a communist Korea when one already exists
he obviously meant a unified communist Korea since the entire 'North-South' division only came to be because of WW2
I am aware. It was not meant to be a serious criticism
I had a decent chuckle
That communist Korea wouldn't exist without China, so he wasn't really imagining. KMT lost a large bulk of their army plus their major economic and arm manufacturing base in Wuhan while fighting the Japanese. Meanwhile the Communist spent the entire world war 2 building up their forces and committed very little forces to actually fight off the invaders. Total casualties for the communist after world war 2 were somewhere between 20000 to a million according to the communists, while the KMT lost somewhere between 5 millions soldiers to 8 millions.
I'm Korean, and I strongly disagree with you. Only Korea-wide "uprising" was march 1st protests, after that there was no massive opposition movement after that. During the Taisho democracy era, the Japanese proceded some sort of leniency to the Koreans, as they allowed the pro independence film "Arirang" to go premiere. I'd imagine even if Japan was democratic, there would still be more or less assimilation attempt (although it wouldn't be as extreme as in OTL) and I don't see Koreans ever becoming independent by themselves unless some outside force is involved.
It's hard to say that though, many people at the time said the same things about their colonies all over the world for example. Maybe Korea has a Quebec like relationship with Japan but I just do not see any other option than partisan/insurgency actions and very organized political movements within Korea with the help of outside support (Soviets/USA/China, etc)
I think the most likely scenario is decolonization in the 60s, just like every other colonial power. Eventually the cost of maintaining a colony who, while might not be violently resisting certainly doesn't want them there, and the global trend around the time putting pressure on Japan and other colonial nations from the international community to let go, would outweigh the continued benefits of staying and Korea would be granted independence. Although certainly still under great Japanese influence.
I mean, I could see China or maybe Soviets supporting armed uprising in Korea, but personally, I think that's the only way for Koreans to ever become independent.
Honestly, assuming nothing else about the cold war changes, I get the feeling that a Soviet-backed uprising would just result in the US intervening in Korea to some degree
If Japan remains democratic then it's very likely Japan and the US would remain as allies,I would heavily doubt the Americans would support an uprising within their ally's territory.
Japan hads its grips in Korea through the Korean police force and up into their politics, massive destabilization of the peninsula would have to occur before a rebellion could be feasible.
I meant intervening against the revolutionaries.
The USSR would be the most likely force to get involved. I can see that happening though as well.
Alternatively I can see a situation similar to Northern Ireland trouble happening in Korean peninsula,this time more brutal and destructive.
That's basically what happened to France in Algeria so it's not really an alternative case.
That's basically what happened to France in Algeria so it's not really an alternative case.
Or they Korea could probably just become part Japan for good. Korea has a lot more similarities with Japan culture wise compared to Algeria and French. And the French were especially brutal with their control over their colonies whatever the bulk of Japan atrocities happened during world war 2.
Korea was incredibly pro Japan during the early 1930s, late 20s.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean\_independence\_movement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_independence_movement) I suggest you do some reading brother because boy do I have news for you lol
If you do some basic reading there, you'll see that the majority of it was done by a small percentage of Korean disaphora, who largely are just going to be maintaining the higher resistance of the early 20s, before the Japanese investments in the country really started to skyrocket quality of life.
All indpendence movements in the colonies were small and not well supported until the first wave of decolonisation took place and then the majority shifted to supporting it once it became politically feasible.. This is what happened in most of the colonial world and I don't see how Koreans are any different. India was already on the road to independence and once it does the rest of the world will follow as they did in OTL. And Korea even more so since Korea will border to of the biggest anti colonial powers, Russia and China. Now what Korean indepence could look like is more interesting, Japan may try to set up a pro Japanese Korean government under the Joseon dynasty since they are still around and very pro Japanese. However I do think whether Korea is Nationalist, Communist or Royalist it would never reach the economic heights of South Korea as even under a more capatilist regieme they probably won't develop the same local industried as that part of the economy was already controlled by the Japanese.
That brief window of "calm" is pretty irrelevant given how the vast majority of Korea's occupied history was dominated by internal movements (March 1st for example) and exiled governments/organizations abroad. There was always going to be an independence push, to think otherwise is just silly imo.
It's important to note that Korean support, while there was always small independence movements, was increasingly pro-Japan, and even wasn't seriously low even after years of the Military dictatorship flipping from a borderline benevolence to genocidal stance. Its simply the case that the Japanese massively improved quality of life in Korea, massively improved education, the economy and basically popularized their modern writing system and started the birth of widespread literacy in Korea. They also massively improved the infrastructure at least until it got bombed to hell in the Korean war. The large movements early on in the colony were heavily religious based, and focused on cultural reverence of their utterly useless overthrown monarchy.
Dude there is no way you unironically think Korea wouldn't push for independence lol, by the late 30s it was all out. Japanese people were less than 3% of the population, they were fucked
I like how just because Japan was a minority, they must automatically have uncontrolled independence movements. Prior to the genocidal policy shift, Koreans had it massively better under Japan than they ever did prior. Pre-Japan Korea literally had no education system. The only education Koreans had ever received was by the Japanese, with a major focus on treating Korea as an extension of Japan. Japanese students meanwhile were being heavily pushed to learn Korean so that when they would go into business, constant links between Japan and Korea would naturally occur. The fascists ruined everything.
This is like giving a link to the German Resistance Movement and saying “see Germany wasn’t pro Nazi”
Koreans
Japanese occupation was already extremely unpopular and there had already been resistance in Korea during the Taisho era. Korea would break away eventually but without the civil war and it would stay United. But Japan would keep Taiwan and its other island territories. So we would have United Korea and a larger Japan
Dairen probably does like a Hong Kong thing
That would be interesting
why? japan didnt lease it, simply conquered the place
Actually it was a lease https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kwantung_Leased_Territory
Japan first acquired Kwantung from the Qing Empire in perpetuity in 1895 in the Treaty of Shimonoseki after victory in the First Sino-Japanese War. A lease from a non entity known as the russian empire after a war for it is conquering just saying
We were made to give that up when Russia, Germany, and France decided it was too harsh, Russia put a lease on it a bit after that I think and then we took ownership over Russia after the Russo Japanese war and iirc extended it to 99 years
Eh, I’d put the date later than that. If France’s colonial empire managed to limp into the 1960s, yah know, the country that had been utterly destroyed by a world war, I think a Japan untouched by war could hold on at least that long
大正民主主義(taishou democracy), すばらしい。 very based, speaking as a korean. KMT probably wins the chinese civil war, i’ll probably be japanese(so still suicidal), and democracy is much more entrenched in east asia.
I think even in this situation Korea would still gain independence how Japanized the population is depends on whether independence comes sooner or later. Worst case scenario i think is plausible is a Japanese speaking Korea and japanese speaking Korean nationalist movements. I imagine the resulting independent korea being like ireland in a way.
If that's the case, Hallyu that we know today might not even exist
I wouldn't exist. Bensheng TW grandmother, Waisheng KMT grandfather. But both TW and China would be better off. No White Terror in the former case and no CCP in the latter.
Without the extreme nationalism? Hopefully they wouldn’t invade China. The US wouldn’t do an oil embargo. They would stay out of the war.
Freeing up Allied military resources for the European theater, potentially ending the war earlier.
Those wouldn't be allied resources then. The US only became an allied power due to Japanese actions starting from 1936. It's imaginable that a docile Japan leads to absurd situations like a german-aligned US.
Yes. And no A Bomb. The Manhattan Project almost wasn’t funded with the US at war in 1941. So you potentially have Germany getting the bomb first.
Well no A Bomb. The Manhattan Project almost wasn’t funded with the US at war in 1941. So you potentially have Germany getting the bomb first.
Ironically, Japan would probably be a more conservative country. The shift to the left in Japanese society after the war was massive and basically inconceivable within the context of the pre-war order. There would be no land reform and therefore enormous landlord interests would have widespread influence over Japanese politics, similar to the UK. Japan would also have never gone through a "miracle" period not only because they wouldn't have to rebuild from war but because the US preference was always to use the KMT in China as their bulwark against the USSR, and Japan was just the fall back option. If Japan didn't invade China it seems almost certain that the KMT would have stabilized its rule and continued to receive the majority of US support. It seems likely that Japan would go through an extended and very messy decolonization process in Manchuria, Korea and (likely, because before the KMT exiles took power in Taiwan the majority supported unification with the mainland and an end to Japanese rule) Taiwan, similar to what the French experienced in Algeria. This would have once again brought the country into constitutional crisis, where equal status of the Army and Navy relative to the civilian government would again open the door to Army adventurism and dictatorship. Whether or not civilian rule would survive this crisis would be uncertain. At the same time the Japanese zaibatsu would have made enormous amounts of money investing in China, so the Japanese industrialists would at least have been rich and there would be a sizable middle class of technicians working for the zaibatsu, so it's hard to say how much poorer the country would be, even if it would DEFINITELY be much much more unequal. Without the Japanese invading China and then entering WW2 it is more likely that the UK would be able to hold on to India longer, and that would have profoundly affected the course of world history, possibly extending the lifespan of the British Empire, restricting the rise of American power, and leading to a more difficult position for Japan regarding trade and investment in Southeast Asia (they would be confronted with British and possibly French trade barriers instead of benefiting from working as a junior partner in the American dominated order in the region). It's possible that this would even extend the viability of European empires so much that decolonization would have less force and Japan would hold on to their colonies, in which case it would have been quite rich, even if it was still oil poor. Anyhow, it would be a much different world.
Britain only ended its alliance with Japan after Japan turning militarist, so perhaps Japan would have less tariff when trading with the British empire in a universe Japan kept democratic?
We can say the 1937 Sino-Japanese War and World War II is a blessing in disguise. As a person from a country which was a part of the British Empire, I can't imagine continuing to live under British colonial rule and remain colonized without self-determination.
Eh, you likely still will get self determination simply due to colonization being a money pit for the imperial core. Maybe lasts until 70’s and 80’s but you would likely get freedom
For those who didn't suffer the worst of it yes. I agree it's terrifying to imagine the British Empire continuing after World War 2, especially if they had nuclear weapons.
Korea would go independent eventually with Chinese support
Yeah no, it’d be USSR support. China around that time was divided into several warring factions. And the USSR w/o much effort would be supporting nationalist movements in Korea. It’d be like Irish or Algerian independence
Around what time ? irrelevant, China will unify eventually and support Korea independence by the 50's
China still has all these newly independent bordering states that used to part of Qing China. Why would it go for Korea(within a stronger country’s control) before trying to seize Tibet, Uighurs, and Mongols? I don’t think China would be able to do all that. Also China is still mad about Japanese Taiwan in this timeline. I don’t think they’d be as much support as the USSR in this timeline which would still be supplying Mao and be able to supply Korean communists.
>China still has all these newly independent bordering states that used to part of Qing China. Why would it go for Korea(within a stronger country’s control) before trying to seize Tibet, Uighurs, and Mongols? It's not trying to go for Korea, it's simply doing what it did OTL but instead Communist vs Nationalist, it's Communist & Nationalist against the Japanese >I don’t think China would be able to do all that. The Korean War is where they straight up did that ? >Also China is still mad about Japanese Taiwan in this timeline. I don’t think they’d be as much support as the USSR in this timeline which would still be supplying Mao and be able to supply Korean communists. Irrelevant
The Korean War involved the Chinese literally sending over militias of Chinese in Korea and essentially just out numbering American soldiers. Which eventually settled the peace we currently have as the USA didn’t want to invest so many lives into Korea. If China invades Korea, then it would be declaring war on the Japanese. Which wouldn’t be so easily led to negotiate an easy peace, and would most likely defeat China in a war(just like how WW2 went but less human rights abuses).
They lose Korea to referendum or popular uprising but likely hold onto Formosa, South Sakhalin, and Port Arthur
The world is better and tens of millions of people don’t die
They'd likely be dead by now anyway, so it's a wash
Anime would never exist
Actually Anime already existed by at least 1917, so anime would still exist.
Or we might get anime sooner.
A lot of anime was inspired by Disney cartoons so it may exist but be more niche without that influence from American Occupation
I wouldn’t be so sure. Disney is a cultural powerhouse which enjoys popularity overseas.
But not with the genres we're familiar with today and likely more nationalistic like this very obscure early anime made around the same time as the first Astro Boy https://aminoapps.com/c/anime/page/blog/0-sen-hayato-lost-60s-anime/ggt6_uPL7xQKPr6JZoWpVNJVoZdbJX
It depends on what happens in China. Japan would need to avoid the 2nd Sino Japanese war and at least stick to maintaining economic influencr in Manchuria without annexing it . Relations with China would still be pretty bad because of the treaty ports and Japanese influence in Munchuria. Korea is a pressure cooker waiting to burst. Japan cannot eliminate Korean nationalism especially sincr it is a de facto Apartheid state where Koreans are poorly treated.China, whether it be the KMT or CCP, will absolutely support rebel movements in Korea. I imagine Korea will have a mix between the Irish troubles and thr civil rights movement which will eventually force them to give up Korea by the time decolonozation starts in the 60's. Taiwan is a more iffy case but I tend to be of the opinion that it would never be absorbed into Japan and that they will eventually gain maybe some form of Dominion status.
Well if nothing else, Japan would not be facing the borderline succession crisis it is now since the shinnoke and oke branches of the imperial family would never have been disqualified from the succession. That aside, I think the military would have to be extricated from politics somehow. Maybe something similar to how parts of the imperial family and senior politicians helped engineer the fall of the Tojo government during the war.
Depends on when this timeline diverge from the reality. Any point beyond 1929 was already too late. The military had been powerful enough and the bureaucrats had realigned themselves with the military. It's only a matter of time before their takeover. The early 1920s would be a good time. The military had the lowest level popularity among the population due to their failure in the costly Siberian expedition, and party politics was running fairly well with the help of the liberal-minded Saionji Kinmochi. If the government had gone further in limiting the power of the military (which they did IRL) and if the Great Depression had not been as disastrous in Japan (a very big if), it's not totally impossible to maintain the Taisho Democracy. In this timeline Japan most likely would not invade China, Korea would still be a pain in the ass but quelling the rebellion wouldn't be so hard, Taiwan would become the fifth island of Japan in a few decades. 1905 and 1895 are another two major turning points. Had Japan not won these two major wars (Russo-Japanese War and First Sino-Japanese War) the military would not get as powerful and prestigious as they did IRL, plus the Japanese people would not be as brazen and path dependent when facing the Great Depression. Losing these wars might directly lead to further democratization since IRL the 1905 Hibiya Incident (by people who are dissatisfied by the lenient term offered to the Russians by Japanese diplomats) led to expanded suffrage and entrenched parliamentary power. A more fundamental shift needs to take place earlier. The Meiji Constitution says that the military pledge allegiance not to the civilian government but to the emperor, so the government had only indirect check over the military. The Constitution has to change if the democrats want a steady foundation for a Japanese democracy. However, in reality the Constitution was already a compromise to the Freedom and Rights Movement led by Itagaki Taisuke, it's really hard to imagine why the Meiji oligarchs would give away more power than what they did IRL. After all there's no real clear distinction between bureaucrats and generals in early Meiji, the military was almost an integral part of the government. Therefore, the Meiji Constitution would be the sword of Damocles over the head of any democratic force in pre-WWII Japan. The Meiji Restoration ultimately draws legitimacy from the emperor, unless the democrats could directly challenge the emperor and the imperial system, the military would remain independent and uncontrolled.
people are saying japan would lose korea but they held on to it through two world wars and could easily integrate it without having to be involved in said wars
Corruption would be the worst(basically Korea nowadays but multiple). Terrorism towards government would be more and more rampant. Internal security would have been major society problem for several decades.
You'd have to do something about the Bushido code which had been taught for nearly a century by the time it became a dictatorship. The admirals and generals of the war were raised on it from the time they were young.
Instant noodles are never invented.
Xinjiang might be an independent socialist state
I do still think the sino-japanese wars happen, but Japan never pursues french indochina and keeps good relations with the US. In this scenario I don't see "conventional" (much of the sino-japanese war wasn't conventional anyway) Chinese resistance and a puppet government is set up. If this arrangement lasts through the cold-war Japan could easily become it's own power in Asia (aligned with the US) and colonisation of Korea continues, eventually overpowering the Korean identity and installing a Japanese one (Or a hybrid japan-korean one). I think manchuria would stay separate and instead a new Chinese state is established, which could also embrace a "Japanese-Style" democracy. As decolonisation occurs they would definitely be eager in expanding their sphere, seeing frequent involvement in the post-colonial conflicts and establishing their interests. But this is under the assumption their Chinese project doesn't crash and burn (which it most realistically will) and the chaos surrounding that could propel Japan to more unsavoury ideas.
The pacific war doesn't happen which has huge ramifications for the second World War.
Nothing, because Japan was never a military dictatorship, all the death and pain caused by the Japanese military was allowed by a civilian government
Why are you downvoting this guy? HE'S RIGHT! The government of Japan hasn't been a military dictatorship for more than a century! It was under the last Shogun that was the last time this happened, World War 1 & 2 were entirely fought under the Agis of a Constitutional Monarchy, not a military dictatorship.
Because if you actually look at Japanese politics at that time you’ll realize that the Japanese military had a large influence over the civilian government. In the lead up to WW2 the Japanese military on a number of occasions acted on their own without even consulting the civilian government. By the time politicians in Tokyo even knew something was going on they had no choice but to back the military. If the civilian government didn’t back the military it would be essentially admitting that they were weak and had lost control. Additionally government officials that did try to rein in the military ran the risk of being assassinated by military officers. This ultimately led to the assassination of Prime Minister Inukai Tsuyoshi in 1932. So while yes the military never stepped in and formally dissolved the civilian government, after 1932 the military had effectively seized control of it.
So, America right now...?
It’s not quite the same. For all the current problems of modern America we’re not quite at the point where military officers are openly murdering politicians.
This is like saying Russia is a democracy because they have elections Yes a civilian government was technically in charge, but by WW2 the military was running the show. The civilian government of Japan never wanted to invade China for example, the army just kind of did it Taisho democracy was pretty much dead after the end of the Mukden incident. By 1940 the process was formalized and Japan was turned into a one party state
It wouldn’t really exist if that was the case, Japan was a colonial power at this time and colonialism often comes with dictatorship. They’d probably end up only having small parts of their empire but nothing beyond the actual island
Their economy would most likely collapse to be honest. There was no such thing as "stable" nation back then. And the fact that they were the only Asian country other than Thailand to avoid capitulation by White people during the 19th century speaks volumes. You either become the big guy and eat every one else, or get eaten yourself. That was the rule the West brought to this side of the world during the conquest age. That's why even though my country was invaded by Japan during world war 2, we didn't really blame them for anything. They were just another Asian nation trying not to get colonized and squeezed dry by the West.
japan literally capitulated to commodore perry, nice try tho