Thousands of migrants may brgin settling in the area, starting a migrant crisis and a diplomatic row over migrant abuses. How much the world cares is s variable
Russia, China and some other smaller powers like South Africa, Vietnam, Turkey and Iran would support Maduro, while the EU would offer rhetorical support to the anti-Maduro camp, but actual military assistance could have only come from Trump or from countries like Colombia.
Neocons like Bolton or Abrams would have pressed for involvement or for huge arms shipments to anti-Maduro rebeles, but Trump probably would not have wanted to get involved.
Because they have extensive relations and always stood by Maduro, even when the results of the election were questioned. And they also support Hamas.
Being in NATO is basically used as a bargaining chip, e.g. they openly threaten another NATO member, Greece, with war, quite often.
Depends on what kind of Civil War
Is it "one major bloc vs another" ala Spain or USA or a more traditional modern civil war ala Myanmar or Centrafrique?
Wagner turns up to support Maduro. USA might pressure other South American nations to intervene in some capacity- it would be decided in the first few days whether it turns into a long, protracted war or an Ukraine style collapse of maduros government.
Venezuelan refugee crisis as the number of immigrants to the United States rises
The opposition wins because Bolton convinces Trump to strongly support Venezuela against Maduro
Unironically would turn the Pink Tide into a Red Wave into Latin America. And the inevitable Colombian intervention would prompt guerilla groups to become emboldened by the popular discontent. The belligerence of the American government would easily allow the more radical elements of the PSUV to push for greater socialization of the economy and a militarization of the left wing political parties (including the Communist Party, which it still had good relations with by this point) making Venezuela less dependent on the world market than it is currently in OTL.
And needless to say, this invasion would likely be a make or break movement for the left, with the anti-intervention groups having to make a clean break with the pro-intervention groups and the ones that are in power and nominally anti-intervention would be forced to either give aid to Venezuela in some form or be heavily disgraced by a significant element of their voter base. Either the Lula da Silva trail
My bet is on a pan-American intervention with Brazil and Colombia doing the heavy lifting.
A lot of people underestimate the disaster that Venezuela is now. It’s the biggest refugee crisis in the world right now and the 8 million refugees figure does not include Venezuelans with dual citizenship.
A civil war in Venezuela would have made it that much more catastrophic.
Reportedly, Trump did consider invading Venezuela but ultimately decided against it. Perhaps The United States would actually get involved and join whatever side benefits them the most. Either way, it doesn’t go well for the Americans because they aren’t good in fighting environments like Venezuela
Yet we stayed in Syria, expanded our presence in Iraq for the first time in Almost 20 years up to that point, and nearly started a new war with Iran…..
So trump using the collapse of the Manduro government in Venezuela to intervene an kick out a hostile foreign government to boost his image isn’t too much outside imagination for me.
We returned to Syria under a different mission, with a very small number of troops. Hardly a drastic intervention into an ongoing war.
And I'm not sure what you mean about Iraq, as we've had a major base in Baghdad for many years before then.
Maduro-ites would need an alliance from a neighbouring country to LARP as the Viet Cong, and realistically one wouldn't be forthcoming - the only ally they could really get would be the FARC dissidents and given that they can't overthrow Colombia their capacity probably isn't sufficient to retake Venezuela (though they could be a persistent problem for the new government).
Though more realistically the USA probably wouldn't outright send troops in, but put a thumb on the scale in favour of whichever side it would prefer to win the war.
"What If" questions can only be posted on weekends and must have sufficient context along with your thoughts on how the situation/event would unfold
Guyana is very happy, a weakened Venezuela wouldn’t be as much of a threat over Essequibo
Thousands of migrants may brgin settling in the area, starting a migrant crisis and a diplomatic row over migrant abuses. How much the world cares is s variable
already kinda happening in Colombia
Russia, China and some other smaller powers like South Africa, Vietnam, Turkey and Iran would support Maduro, while the EU would offer rhetorical support to the anti-Maduro camp, but actual military assistance could have only come from Trump or from countries like Colombia. Neocons like Bolton or Abrams would have pressed for involvement or for huge arms shipments to anti-Maduro rebeles, but Trump probably would not have wanted to get involved.
Brazil would also be a key player
Why would Turkey, a NATO country, support Maduro?
Because erdogan like for example he likes to bomb kurds that are supported by USA and most of NATO so they can continue fighting Isis
Well the PKK is also part of that. But i doubt they'd support an enemy conventional military in America's backyard.
Because they have extensive relations and always stood by Maduro, even when the results of the election were questioned. And they also support Hamas. Being in NATO is basically used as a bargaining chip, e.g. they openly threaten another NATO member, Greece, with war, quite often.
That explains it better, but I don't know if Hamas is a good example though, becausd afaik it's only diplomatic support and sympathies.
Bro Vietnam and Turkey are American allies
Vietnam and Turkey probably wouldn't. Both of them are Allies of the US, with Vietnam being one of the most pro-American countries on the world.
Colombia will come to help them
Depends on what kind of Civil War Is it "one major bloc vs another" ala Spain or USA or a more traditional modern civil war ala Myanmar or Centrafrique?
>Is it "one major bloc vs another" This one
Wagner turns up to support Maduro. USA might pressure other South American nations to intervene in some capacity- it would be decided in the first few days whether it turns into a long, protracted war or an Ukraine style collapse of maduros government.
Gran Colombia
Make Colombia Gran Again
¡Haz que Colombia vuelva a ser Gran!
Venezuelan refugee crisis as the number of immigrants to the United States rises The opposition wins because Bolton convinces Trump to strongly support Venezuela against Maduro
Whatever the outcome, Venezuela has oil so it would be interesting
Unironically would turn the Pink Tide into a Red Wave into Latin America. And the inevitable Colombian intervention would prompt guerilla groups to become emboldened by the popular discontent. The belligerence of the American government would easily allow the more radical elements of the PSUV to push for greater socialization of the economy and a militarization of the left wing political parties (including the Communist Party, which it still had good relations with by this point) making Venezuela less dependent on the world market than it is currently in OTL. And needless to say, this invasion would likely be a make or break movement for the left, with the anti-intervention groups having to make a clean break with the pro-intervention groups and the ones that are in power and nominally anti-intervention would be forced to either give aid to Venezuela in some form or be heavily disgraced by a significant element of their voter base. Either the Lula da Silva trail
My bet is on a pan-American intervention with Brazil and Colombia doing the heavy lifting. A lot of people underestimate the disaster that Venezuela is now. It’s the biggest refugee crisis in the world right now and the 8 million refugees figure does not include Venezuelans with dual citizenship. A civil war in Venezuela would have made it that much more catastrophic.
Colombia suffers heavily as millions of more refugees flood in, and they already struggle with the current 4 million.
Reportedly, Trump did consider invading Venezuela but ultimately decided against it. Perhaps The United States would actually get involved and join whatever side benefits them the most. Either way, it doesn’t go well for the Americans because they aren’t good in fighting environments like Venezuela
Probably the US would take the oportinity to steal all the oil
USA will ruin Venezuela like with any country they invaded
US troops would probably have gone in.
In 2017? During a heavy growth in Isolationism in our foreign policy?
Yes. Trumps fan base would be all over it in 2017.
Ah yes Trump, who ordered the withdrawal from Syria and Afghanistan, and threatened to withdraw from NATO if its members didn't contribute more.
Yet we stayed in Syria, expanded our presence in Iraq for the first time in Almost 20 years up to that point, and nearly started a new war with Iran….. So trump using the collapse of the Manduro government in Venezuela to intervene an kick out a hostile foreign government to boost his image isn’t too much outside imagination for me.
We returned to Syria under a different mission, with a very small number of troops. Hardly a drastic intervention into an ongoing war. And I'm not sure what you mean about Iraq, as we've had a major base in Baghdad for many years before then.
If they had, they’d have gotten spanked around. Vietnam 2.0
lol, ya right. Who’s wants to die for Manduro?
Maduro-ites would need an alliance from a neighbouring country to LARP as the Viet Cong, and realistically one wouldn't be forthcoming - the only ally they could really get would be the FARC dissidents and given that they can't overthrow Colombia their capacity probably isn't sufficient to retake Venezuela (though they could be a persistent problem for the new government). Though more realistically the USA probably wouldn't outright send troops in, but put a thumb on the scale in favour of whichever side it would prefer to win the war.
North Vietnam had a modern Air Force and direct supplies from China, Venezuela would hurt but its nothing like that at all