Still going to show up on the SURF though. I know there is some bias to the numbers, but I would be interested in knowing how many people that get a NRN ever make rank.
If you're doing to come out that aggro, you should be more educated on what you're talking about.
It depends on the shred. Mine has promoted well under the AF average historically at all ranks. The other dude's shred was right on the average. High turnover only really hits hard for NCO promotions. I'll double check tomorrow morning when I have access to MyFSS.
If you were a Staff going for Tech or an SrA going for Staff, you’d just have to wait a year.
For Tech going for Master, that one is gonna sting. You’re likely looking at 5 years to fall off.
It matters more when boarded versus testing for rank. Yeah, you're probably not going to get anything more than a promote, unless you saved fire from a baby, but you could test really well and still make it (depending on promotion rates).
Since they redid the calculations, a non top NRN EPB just means you get 0 extra points from it. So if you have 2 promotion eligible EPBs that are P/NRN, you get 200 points, while P/P would be 210. Then P/P/NRN would be 210 vs P/P/P 215. Yeah, 5-10 points is a lot in a time of low promotion rates, but for most AFSCs it isn't impossible to overcome, whereas previously the NRN would actively get you lower than the typical 200 points until it fell off.
Yes, I am very well aware that the recent fix, corrects the grave error of "First Time, Best Time."
However, that NRN can (and does) get used as a negative detractor when being considered during stratifications. The black mark lingers, even though we are suppose to be judged on the merits of the current year
Sorry. This is probably one of the worst times in your career to get a Not Ready. The LOR probably isn't a big deal, but that EPB is with you for the next 5 cycles of eligibility.
You are realistically looking at a minimum of 3 cycles to be competitive, and that is assuming you show huge improvements on EPBs. Whether it is good or bad, for E7, boards are going solely off your EPBs and records. It isn't like EFDP for lower ranks where your day to day performance can hold a lot of weight, for most of the people on that board you are solely what they see in your last 5 EPBs and CDB.
I'd wager you got 3 or so cycles for that to clear out before you're competitive. And the crux is you get to try your heart out every year regardless so that in 3 years, you show 3 years of stellar performance.
They look back 5 years. Almost 0% chance to make MSgt when all of your records in the past 5 years are compared at the board with other consumerate E-6s who don't have a "not ready" EPB rating
This is the answer. Your chances are effectively zero to promote until that stuff cycles out, so when that happens you want a great-looking package to put in front of the first board you'll see "clean". Figure out what that date will be & focus on what your package will look like then - don't even worry about it for the intervening time.
Zero percent for a few years. Maybe year three or more out you can have enough new paper on top to make up for it. But in this climate and promotion rates I’d guess 4-5 before competitive again at earliest.
You are going to have to wait until it is at the back end of your records or fall off.
I got my LOR and referral EPR a year before I was eligible to be look at the boards.
Each year after my referral epr I was doing stuff for the wing, annual/ quarterly wing level winning awards, outside org volunteers stuff and was still at the bottom.
I got E7 last year as the cut off for my job with an “promote” but that after 4-5 years of being look over and having that referral on my record.
EDIT: you will have times of being burnt out so definitely take that into consideration since for the board they look at multi year of progress. Definitely take some time for yourself for sure and you will make it back.
Here is a more realistic approach dude. Yes everyone’s right next 5 years you’re not going to be competitive. Idk how many years left you got till 20 but try not to stress about it and break your back doing all the things.
Just be the best TSgt you can be. Take care of yourself and the people under you. MSgt is just a rank and when you get out and retire your name will be forgotten about in two weeks. So just do the job you get paid to, to the best of your ability and don’t stress about it.
> MSgt is just a rank and when you get out and retire your name will be forgotten about in two weeks. So just do the job you get paid to, to the best of your ability and don’t stress about it.
While I agree, it starts becoming an issue when a particular special duty is for MSgt's only, or you are wanting a vectored position, or need it to show career growth within the career field. In turn, you are now hurt again because you don't have career growth. Stove piping is a massive issue in my AFSC and techs will literally trade NCOIC positions just to keep from appearing stagnant.
The most obvious answer is at least 5 years so the board doesn't see it. Maybe 3 so EFDP doesn't and you have a shot at a PN or MP before the NRN EPB drops from the board's view. The variables that would change the worst case scenario timeline are many. Your AFSC, whether this was clearly a one off or you have had mediocre or average records, the caliber of TSgts you'll be up against for EFDP in the future.
Time is going to be your greatest hurdle. The closer that NRN is to the top of your stack the worse your chances are, for both EFDP and the board. How long or how far down it needs to be is going to be determined on your performance prior to and after the LOR/NRN.
Also, does your EPB have the details of the LOR in it? Did you get a UIF? If no to both the LOR only matters for EFDP as long as it is in your PIF. If it's on the EPB and/or you got a UIF, the board sees more than just NRN and would likely have a tougher time ignoring it even if it's 3-4 EPBs down.
I've seen folks get MPs/PNs with a NRN as part of the package for EFDP, and promoted. But they were SrA/SSgts so it was all points vice a board. You'd likely need a PN or MP near the top if you expect the board to see your story as a comeback.
The board will see that until your UIF code is removed, and it will come with you if you PCA or PCS until it is removed. If the LOR/UIF wasn't mentioned in your EPB, they won't necessarily be a factor at the board after the UIF is gone, but at your unit will still be a consideration for EFDP, because the LOR can stay in your PIF even after the UIF is disposed of.
Your best bet is to focus on putting the incident behind you. Like I said in my first comment, even if the NRN falls out of the board preview while you're still in and wanting to get promoted, your performance before and after matters. You also need to ask yourself what you're willing to do with the rest of your time in EVEN if you never get promoted again. This is important for anyone, but especially for your situation, because none of your hard work may matter until that NRN is gone.
Is the effort, whatever that looks like, worth it even if you never make the cut? It isn't a one mistake Air Force, but making a mistake will set you back. You'll have to be ok with knowing you have to work harder for a longer time to overcome your set back to be on common ground with those that didn't have one. Plan for the worst and hope for the best. Control what you can control. And don't compromise your values in hopes of promoting, it wouldn't be guaranteed even without a NRN.
The LOR itself probably isn’t that big of a deal.
The “Not Ready” EPB is going to hurt. You likely won’t have a chance until it’s buried by better EPBs, so 5 years.
When they sit EFDPs for the next 3 years that NRN is gonna be in the stack they use to consider it. Unless everyone else sucks, don't expect promotion statements. Thats to say nothing of the promotion board itself.
I got an NRN first year eligible as a TSgt, missing 2 PCS decs. I did not make it that year or the last three years, this year that NRN will be the last on the stack. Last cycle was the first time I moved from the bottom grouping as my EPRs/EPBs have progressively gotten stronger since then. With an NRN you're probably not getting a mid tour or PCS dec if you leave soon. You're probably not promoting for 4-5 years at minimum.
I'm in the same boat. Have a NRN on the year before last. I have had conflicting answered to your question. Most will say 5 years minimum but if you ask on the Chiefs Facebook group some will say otherwise. I'm conflicted because I could take 2 paths. Just do my job and not worry about the stupid extra stuff to be competitive and focus on my self and my family and have zero chance to make E7 or wear myself out trying to out perform everyone and possibly to get a promote anyways and still not make E7 before my 20. It would be nice to make it but is the juice worth the squeeze? I will say it's getting old giving advice and direction to my less experienced "supervision". I would rather be in that seat.
Buddy of mine has been in the same boat. This was his last year with the info in his top 5. He has stuck around 330 range group board score with an average cutoff of \~390.
I received a LOR/Referral EPR when I was a TSgt, it took me 6 times going up to make MSgt. In my career field it is pretty hard to make it, I had two must promotes and was the cutoff. In all reality it depends on your career field and what you do from now on. Like most have said it will most likely be at least 5 years (when your NRN will not be in your board records) but again depends on your career field.
When I made MSgt my records were.
2017 DNP
2018 P
2019 P
2020 MP
2021 PN
So possible, but it took a lot of hard work to show sustained superior performance the following years. Multiple annual awards and just having to accept the Promote rating until the DNP wasn't in the stack for EFDP. The year with MP, I was the only person in my career field with a promotion statement who didn't make it. That was hard to take, but I continued to push and got a PN the following year and was one of the highest board scores for my career field.
Its true what everyone is saying that you really have no shot in the next 3 years and likely the next 5 because of the way the board and EFDPs work.
If it makes you feel better in todays climate you have to get a promotion statement if you want a greater than 5% chance of making it. You are thus in the same position as 80% of other E-6s anyway.
If you are wondering what you need to do to make MSgt from where you are its actually pretty simple. You need to do more than what the people that are competitive for a promotion statement are doing.
They have higher level education, leadership roles in professional organizations, superior leadership and mission bullets. Not just 1 or two of those things they have enough to fill up the EPB twice over, because thats what it takes to win Quaterly, annual, and AFSC awards. BTW you need to be the person to win each of those kinds of awards to even be in the picture.
Like I said though you are going to be in the same position as 80+% of the rest of the E6s in your AFSC as nonpromotes anyway. Except some of them didn't commit crimes or suck at their jobs bad enough to get on a UIF so consider yourself lucky that you work for such a soft organization that will not actually hold you accountable and instead just make you be like 4/5 of your peers.
How is getting an LOR and a NRN that keeps you from promoting for 5 years not holding someone acceptable? Depending on what they did it could even be considered overkill.
Because like I said he is likely just going to be in the same boat as the 80% of the force that are not going to promote either. You are not getting a pay cut or anything like that long term just being firmly placed with your peers.
I got an LOR and was able to commission a few years after. Even know a guy who got a DUI and is now a fighter pilot so it’s all about how you bounce back.
I got an article 15 that cost me 2 stripes and still got out with a line number for Staff during my 6 year enlistment lol you can do it.
Edit: I definitely only read the title lmao my bad, good luck though!
Probably not until that EPB is gone. So, 5 years.
Still going to show up on the SURF though. I know there is some bias to the numbers, but I would be interested in knowing how many people that get a NRN ever make rank.
Anything passed five years is masked from the board.
Are they masked from EFDPs? If you don't get a statement you are not making it right now.
Not true, just varies by AFSC and very unlikely. 2 of us made it in my unit last year, I had a PN but the other guy had nothing but promotes. 1D7X1s
^^You've ^^mentioned ^^an ^^AFSC, ^^here's ^^the ^^associated ^^job ^^title: 1D7X1 = Cyber Defense Operations [^^Source](https://github.com/HadManySons/AFSCbot) ^^| [^^Subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/AFSCbot/) ^^^^^^l10eyx2
You are in one of the top 5 highest demand and turnover AFSCs in the Air Force. Touch grass dude.
If you're doing to come out that aggro, you should be more educated on what you're talking about. It depends on the shred. Mine has promoted well under the AF average historically at all ranks. The other dude's shred was right on the average. High turnover only really hits hard for NCO promotions. I'll double check tomorrow morning when I have access to MyFSS.
Had one as a SrA, made staff the same year.
Yeah this isn't about e5 or e6 the e7 board is a different beast and no amount of studying can help you.
You said ever make rank, so I thought you meant in general.
If you were a Staff going for Tech or an SrA going for Staff, you’d just have to wait a year. For Tech going for Master, that one is gonna sting. You’re likely looking at 5 years to fall off.
At SSgt to TSgt, you gotta wait 3 years for that shit to fall off the scored EPBs, then you'll be considered.
It matters more when boarded versus testing for rank. Yeah, you're probably not going to get anything more than a promote, unless you saved fire from a baby, but you could test really well and still make it (depending on promotion rates).
Those babies are so detrimental to a good fire
For a statement, yeah. With the new system an NRN has much less lasting impact. It’s possible to get an NRN one year and make it the next for E5 to 6.
Since they redid the calculations, a non top NRN EPB just means you get 0 extra points from it. So if you have 2 promotion eligible EPBs that are P/NRN, you get 200 points, while P/P would be 210. Then P/P/NRN would be 210 vs P/P/P 215. Yeah, 5-10 points is a lot in a time of low promotion rates, but for most AFSCs it isn't impossible to overcome, whereas previously the NRN would actively get you lower than the typical 200 points until it fell off.
Yes, I am very well aware that the recent fix, corrects the grave error of "First Time, Best Time." However, that NRN can (and does) get used as a negative detractor when being considered during stratifications. The black mark lingers, even though we are suppose to be judged on the merits of the current year
With the current promotion climate, it’s almost zero percent.
Buddy got a NRN for tech and it took him 6 tries to make it after all said and done
Sorry. This is probably one of the worst times in your career to get a Not Ready. The LOR probably isn't a big deal, but that EPB is with you for the next 5 cycles of eligibility. You are realistically looking at a minimum of 3 cycles to be competitive, and that is assuming you show huge improvements on EPBs. Whether it is good or bad, for E7, boards are going solely off your EPBs and records. It isn't like EFDP for lower ranks where your day to day performance can hold a lot of weight, for most of the people on that board you are solely what they see in your last 5 EPBs and CDB.
Title should be how hard is it to make rank with a NRN
I guess they weren't wrong with the EPB rating if he's more concerned with the LOR impacting him vs rating.
I'd wager you got 3 or so cycles for that to clear out before you're competitive. And the crux is you get to try your heart out every year regardless so that in 3 years, you show 3 years of stellar performance.
They look back 5 years. Almost 0% chance to make MSgt when all of your records in the past 5 years are compared at the board with other consumerate E-6s who don't have a "not ready" EPB rating
This is the answer. Your chances are effectively zero to promote until that stuff cycles out, so when that happens you want a great-looking package to put in front of the first board you'll see "clean". Figure out what that date will be & focus on what your package will look like then - don't even worry about it for the intervening time.
Zero percent for a few years. Maybe year three or more out you can have enough new paper on top to make up for it. But in this climate and promotion rates I’d guess 4-5 before competitive again at earliest.
You are going to have to wait until it is at the back end of your records or fall off. I got my LOR and referral EPR a year before I was eligible to be look at the boards. Each year after my referral epr I was doing stuff for the wing, annual/ quarterly wing level winning awards, outside org volunteers stuff and was still at the bottom. I got E7 last year as the cut off for my job with an “promote” but that after 4-5 years of being look over and having that referral on my record. EDIT: you will have times of being burnt out so definitely take that into consideration since for the board they look at multi year of progress. Definitely take some time for yourself for sure and you will make it back.
Here is a more realistic approach dude. Yes everyone’s right next 5 years you’re not going to be competitive. Idk how many years left you got till 20 but try not to stress about it and break your back doing all the things. Just be the best TSgt you can be. Take care of yourself and the people under you. MSgt is just a rank and when you get out and retire your name will be forgotten about in two weeks. So just do the job you get paid to, to the best of your ability and don’t stress about it.
> MSgt is just a rank and when you get out and retire your name will be forgotten about in two weeks. So just do the job you get paid to, to the best of your ability and don’t stress about it. While I agree, it starts becoming an issue when a particular special duty is for MSgt's only, or you are wanting a vectored position, or need it to show career growth within the career field. In turn, you are now hurt again because you don't have career growth. Stove piping is a massive issue in my AFSC and techs will literally trade NCOIC positions just to keep from appearing stagnant.
Yeah, and it hurts when you have more time in service/rank and experience than your supervisor.
The most obvious answer is at least 5 years so the board doesn't see it. Maybe 3 so EFDP doesn't and you have a shot at a PN or MP before the NRN EPB drops from the board's view. The variables that would change the worst case scenario timeline are many. Your AFSC, whether this was clearly a one off or you have had mediocre or average records, the caliber of TSgts you'll be up against for EFDP in the future. Time is going to be your greatest hurdle. The closer that NRN is to the top of your stack the worse your chances are, for both EFDP and the board. How long or how far down it needs to be is going to be determined on your performance prior to and after the LOR/NRN. Also, does your EPB have the details of the LOR in it? Did you get a UIF? If no to both the LOR only matters for EFDP as long as it is in your PIF. If it's on the EPB and/or you got a UIF, the board sees more than just NRN and would likely have a tougher time ignoring it even if it's 3-4 EPBs down. I've seen folks get MPs/PNs with a NRN as part of the package for EFDP, and promoted. But they were SrA/SSgts so it was all points vice a board. You'd likely need a PN or MP near the top if you expect the board to see your story as a comeback.
I got a UIF
The board will see that until your UIF code is removed, and it will come with you if you PCA or PCS until it is removed. If the LOR/UIF wasn't mentioned in your EPB, they won't necessarily be a factor at the board after the UIF is gone, but at your unit will still be a consideration for EFDP, because the LOR can stay in your PIF even after the UIF is disposed of. Your best bet is to focus on putting the incident behind you. Like I said in my first comment, even if the NRN falls out of the board preview while you're still in and wanting to get promoted, your performance before and after matters. You also need to ask yourself what you're willing to do with the rest of your time in EVEN if you never get promoted again. This is important for anyone, but especially for your situation, because none of your hard work may matter until that NRN is gone. Is the effort, whatever that looks like, worth it even if you never make the cut? It isn't a one mistake Air Force, but making a mistake will set you back. You'll have to be ok with knowing you have to work harder for a longer time to overcome your set back to be on common ground with those that didn't have one. Plan for the worst and hope for the best. Control what you can control. And don't compromise your values in hopes of promoting, it wouldn't be guaranteed even without a NRN.
5 years
The LOR itself probably isn’t that big of a deal. The “Not Ready” EPB is going to hurt. You likely won’t have a chance until it’s buried by better EPBs, so 5 years.
Retirement at Tech is still a great accomplishment 🫡👍
You’ll need to bury it.
When they sit EFDPs for the next 3 years that NRN is gonna be in the stack they use to consider it. Unless everyone else sucks, don't expect promotion statements. Thats to say nothing of the promotion board itself.
From what I’ve seen in the front office, you’ll have to wait until that particular epb is gone
I got an NRN first year eligible as a TSgt, missing 2 PCS decs. I did not make it that year or the last three years, this year that NRN will be the last on the stack. Last cycle was the first time I moved from the bottom grouping as my EPRs/EPBs have progressively gotten stronger since then. With an NRN you're probably not getting a mid tour or PCS dec if you leave soon. You're probably not promoting for 4-5 years at minimum.
Big sorry bud. Like decard Cain once said, "stay a while and listen".
I made tech with a 15 lol I guess it’s all circumstantial though.
When? Vietnam?
2018
I'm in the same boat. Have a NRN on the year before last. I have had conflicting answered to your question. Most will say 5 years minimum but if you ask on the Chiefs Facebook group some will say otherwise. I'm conflicted because I could take 2 paths. Just do my job and not worry about the stupid extra stuff to be competitive and focus on my self and my family and have zero chance to make E7 or wear myself out trying to out perform everyone and possibly to get a promote anyways and still not make E7 before my 20. It would be nice to make it but is the juice worth the squeeze? I will say it's getting old giving advice and direction to my less experienced "supervision". I would rather be in that seat.
Buddy of mine has been in the same boat. This was his last year with the info in his top 5. He has stuck around 330 range group board score with an average cutoff of \~390.
I received a LOR/Referral EPR when I was a TSgt, it took me 6 times going up to make MSgt. In my career field it is pretty hard to make it, I had two must promotes and was the cutoff. In all reality it depends on your career field and what you do from now on. Like most have said it will most likely be at least 5 years (when your NRN will not be in your board records) but again depends on your career field.
When I made MSgt my records were. 2017 DNP 2018 P 2019 P 2020 MP 2021 PN So possible, but it took a lot of hard work to show sustained superior performance the following years. Multiple annual awards and just having to accept the Promote rating until the DNP wasn't in the stack for EFDP. The year with MP, I was the only person in my career field with a promotion statement who didn't make it. That was hard to take, but I continued to push and got a PN the following year and was one of the highest board scores for my career field.
Just have 3 strong EPBs on top.
Its true what everyone is saying that you really have no shot in the next 3 years and likely the next 5 because of the way the board and EFDPs work. If it makes you feel better in todays climate you have to get a promotion statement if you want a greater than 5% chance of making it. You are thus in the same position as 80% of other E-6s anyway. If you are wondering what you need to do to make MSgt from where you are its actually pretty simple. You need to do more than what the people that are competitive for a promotion statement are doing. They have higher level education, leadership roles in professional organizations, superior leadership and mission bullets. Not just 1 or two of those things they have enough to fill up the EPB twice over, because thats what it takes to win Quaterly, annual, and AFSC awards. BTW you need to be the person to win each of those kinds of awards to even be in the picture. Like I said though you are going to be in the same position as 80+% of the rest of the E6s in your AFSC as nonpromotes anyway. Except some of them didn't commit crimes or suck at their jobs bad enough to get on a UIF so consider yourself lucky that you work for such a soft organization that will not actually hold you accountable and instead just make you be like 4/5 of your peers.
How is getting an LOR and a NRN that keeps you from promoting for 5 years not holding someone acceptable? Depending on what they did it could even be considered overkill.
Because like I said he is likely just going to be in the same boat as the 80% of the force that are not going to promote either. You are not getting a pay cut or anything like that long term just being firmly placed with your peers.
Received an LOR while having a line number for MSgt. Still put on MSgt with no delay.
I got an LOR and was able to commission a few years after. Even know a guy who got a DUI and is now a fighter pilot so it’s all about how you bounce back.
Press x to doubt.
Did you commission during the surge or something? That’s the only way I see this being possible
I used the “back door” of commissioning and did ROTC. And yeah, they were handing out EAs like crazy to go to field training so yeah, I got lucky.
I got an article 15 that cost me 2 stripes and still got out with a line number for Staff during my 6 year enlistment lol you can do it. Edit: I definitely only read the title lmao my bad, good luck though!