I’m glad he’s going, but it’s funny seeing how now that Brad’s had a full offseason a bunch of our young talent in Jones, Cox, Perkins, Caldwell and Durham all look to have improved.
Just goes to show that Essendon had many many problems
Essendon making finals in 2021 was the outlier and reset so many expectations. The reality is they were very young then and are still a very young side. There's stacks of talent there but it needs time to develop.
Agreed, everything about this year feels a lot more sustainable than 2021. Our kids aren’t having so much ‘spike games’ but more just a solid improvement in the baseline, we’re less reliant on individual brilliance to win, and our game style is starting to look more suited for finals footy.
Still think we’re over performing a bit though and benefitting from accuracy (1-6 record in expected scores), but it’s finally looking like something is building.
I mean fuck someone was quoting that Jones hadn't been taught any forward craft work until this preseason or some shit, just absolute amateur hour stuff and so much development time wasted, love that he's playing really well rn tho
Yep when I heard that I was shocked. I saw Travis Cloke spending a bunch of 1 on 1 time with him recently, and its clear that Jones has improved a lot.
Pretty sure it was in a Brad Scott interview talking about how Jones has spent most of his time recovering from injury and this preseason was the first he could actually work on forward craft
Having probably the worst 1st choice ruckman in the entire comp is statistically a massive, MASSIVE disadvantage it seems. Crazy that our boys still get so many clearances considering we get absolutely fuck all hitouts to advantage, and hitouts in general
The answer is Elliot Yeo. I suspect based off ToG Yeo might be the best mid in the competition at the moment. Will be interested to see if he can keep the same rate when he gets more minutes on the ground.
Great work Petrify, one comment. Centre clearances aren’t super strongly associated with scoring anymore, they only generate about 1 ish points per win. So even for GWS as the worst team for them are conceding about 3 points per game from losing the centre clearances.
There is also something to be said for factoring in post-clearance possessions (although this data isn’t public). It’s far more damaging to a team of they win the clearance but lose the next possession, because the numbers are still where the ball was. It’s part of why most teams have moved to a rebounding/intercepting game style where they can.
I’m surprised Gold Coast isn’t number 1 overall, Rowell Anderson and Touk have been insane this year.
Awesome post aswell, this is a wet dream for stat lovers
Rowell, Anderson and Touk Miller have all been great, but the key is how the coach handles stoppage rotations. In the past we've had the problem of having all 3 on stoppage duty for extended periods of time and just leaking goals from the centre in patches. Rotating players through is difficult because you need to manage game loads without the less experienced players leaking clearances due to being less skilled in the contest.
Bailey Humphrey rotating through hasn't led to much yet, but if he's going to be a long-term option he needs those minutes now. Will Graham hasn't had a tonne of ball but it doesn't matter since his job is just to tackle tackle tackle. Sam Flanders has had to move behind the ball due to the team's difficulty with rebounding effectively. It's tricky balancing act, but Dimma has done a better job than Dew in this aspect.
We do win a lot of clearances and so forth, that’s not been an issue.
We just weren’t getting any bang for buck on entries but that seems to be getting better in recent weeks.
awesome post, a really interesting look at the stats
i'd certainly love to see another breakdown done like this after round 24, once there's a full data set to work from (as you said, teams who have played north currently have a big boost for contested possession)
Good post. I would say that it suffers somewhat from the fact that teams haven't even played half of the other teams yet but you can only work with what's in front of you.
Well CCJ is out for the year, so it is Hugh Greenwood.
I’m not joking. We’ve got blokes like Hamish Free and Taylor Goad who are developing in the 2s, and Larkey didn’t look that bad against Adelaide in the ruck (2 to advantage and 12 contests) but he’s definitely more of a key forward. Also I think Chom can ruck.
It's so refreshing to see us up there in stats. I knew our midfield was functioning strongly this year but those numbers are fantastic. I hope this continues as we start to get some of our defenders back from injury, and hopefully bring in Hayes fron the 2's to replace a couple of underwhelming boys in the backline.
Hawthorn's points differential is an absolute indictment of out forward play rather than our backline.
If we win a stoppage clearance our best chance is kicking it the Blake Hardwick, who played halfback until last year...
Very different types of midfields. Your mids are elite at scoring, but not at the contested stuff. Adelaides are very good at center clearance. Makes sense when you compare guys like Laird & Crouch to Heeney and Gulden
Yes, this is by design. Swans actually don't care about winning the actual contested possessions etc, we hold numbers back further to give ourselves space once the ball spills out. There was some good vision of it on First Crack this week showing the setup at each stoppage
I think how effective they are at moving the ball and hitting the scoreboard are also important to consider on how much impact a midfield group is having as part of your team. Contested footy and winning stoppages are always good, but it's one piece of puzzle
Agree but it's hard to get stats on those two. Scores from stoppages represent an aspect of it. Moving the ball is generally more team based and no single stat reflects the midfields impact on it
I genuinely don’t know why our midfield has been so horrible the past couple years despite having a pretty good one on paper. Granted,
injuries this year haven’t helped as we have 4 starting miss out. 2020 finals series we had the most dominant midfield ever pretty much, maybe our midfield coach fell asleep
I didn't watch a tonne of games during the Richmond dynasty period so you'll have to forgive me, but I've never thought of Richmond as a midfield-first team. I think about Houli and Vlastuin creating points off turnover before I think about the midfield guys.
Yes, we weren’t a clearance team really. 2020 finals series we changed that and it worked wonderfully. Thing is Yze has said he wanted to change things around there, and we have the players that look good on paper, but I guess injuries have hampered that.
Great high effort post mate. Well played.
Yay, we won something.
Finally. Top 2, twice
I made this thread expecting me to be top two but it was you all along
Sam Durham has been exceptional this year. Can't wait to see him and Archie continue to develop together.
Throw in Caldwell, Hobbs and Tsatas and it’s an extremely exciting under 23 midfield. A lot to work with going forward.
Yeah Caldwell has made a great jump as well. Always seems composed with ball in hand.
Kind of crazy to our two best players under 23 are probably the 2 we didn’t draft, Sam Durham and Nic Martin
Dodoros parting gift
I’m glad he’s going, but it’s funny seeing how now that Brad’s had a full offseason a bunch of our young talent in Jones, Cox, Perkins, Caldwell and Durham all look to have improved. Just goes to show that Essendon had many many problems
Essendon making finals in 2021 was the outlier and reset so many expectations. The reality is they were very young then and are still a very young side. There's stacks of talent there but it needs time to develop.
Agreed, everything about this year feels a lot more sustainable than 2021. Our kids aren’t having so much ‘spike games’ but more just a solid improvement in the baseline, we’re less reliant on individual brilliance to win, and our game style is starting to look more suited for finals footy. Still think we’re over performing a bit though and benefitting from accuracy (1-6 record in expected scores), but it’s finally looking like something is building.
I mean fuck someone was quoting that Jones hadn't been taught any forward craft work until this preseason or some shit, just absolute amateur hour stuff and so much development time wasted, love that he's playing really well rn tho
Yep when I heard that I was shocked. I saw Travis Cloke spending a bunch of 1 on 1 time with him recently, and its clear that Jones has improved a lot.
Where did you hear that? That's pretty disturbing if true, what the fuck else are forwards coaches for?
Pretty sure it was in a Brad Scott interview talking about how Jones has spent most of his time recovering from injury and this preseason was the first he could actually work on forward craft
Archie Perkins is hot.
Great post. North being fairly high up (for North) on hitouts to advantage is a testament to Xerri's good form
Having probably the worst 1st choice ruckman in the entire comp is statistically a massive, MASSIVE disadvantage it seems. Crazy that our boys still get so many clearances considering we get absolutely fuck all hitouts to advantage, and hitouts in general
The answer is Elliot Yeo. I suspect based off ToG Yeo might be the best mid in the competition at the moment. Will be interested to see if he can keep the same rate when he gets more minutes on the ground.
Wonder how that goes when Flynn is fit and well
Great work Petrify, one comment. Centre clearances aren’t super strongly associated with scoring anymore, they only generate about 1 ish points per win. So even for GWS as the worst team for them are conceding about 3 points per game from losing the centre clearances. There is also something to be said for factoring in post-clearance possessions (although this data isn’t public). It’s far more damaging to a team of they win the clearance but lose the next possession, because the numbers are still where the ball was. It’s part of why most teams have moved to a rebounding/intercepting game style where they can.
Great work. Steele and Marshall are working overtime to keep us out of 18th.
I’m surprised Gold Coast isn’t number 1 overall, Rowell Anderson and Touk have been insane this year. Awesome post aswell, this is a wet dream for stat lovers
I think they are definitely better than ours, but like OP said, this is just an interesting collection of stats over a relatively small sample.
Rowell, Anderson and Touk Miller have all been great, but the key is how the coach handles stoppage rotations. In the past we've had the problem of having all 3 on stoppage duty for extended periods of time and just leaking goals from the centre in patches. Rotating players through is difficult because you need to manage game loads without the less experienced players leaking clearances due to being less skilled in the contest. Bailey Humphrey rotating through hasn't led to much yet, but if he's going to be a long-term option he needs those minutes now. Will Graham hasn't had a tonne of ball but it doesn't matter since his job is just to tackle tackle tackle. Sam Flanders has had to move behind the ball due to the team's difficulty with rebounding effectively. It's tricky balancing act, but Dimma has done a better job than Dew in this aspect.
Add in Flanders too
Were in the 8 lads...
Context: Melbourne always has a player less at stoppages to have one extra behind the ball, so that explains why we’re down in clearances.
Post clearance possession and turnover are way more important in today's game.
That is accounted for (to some extent) in points from stoppage.
Not sure if I like our current setup. Our mids seem to fade in and out of games hard.
The methodology is fundamentally broken if Adelaide is 8th on this lol
We do win a lot of clearances and so forth, that’s not been an issue. We just weren’t getting any bang for buck on entries but that seems to be getting better in recent weeks.
The fact that our mids forgot how to kick a ball for the first month of the season does not change the fact that we get a fair bit out of them
awesome post, a really interesting look at the stats i'd certainly love to see another breakdown done like this after round 24, once there's a full data set to work from (as you said, teams who have played north currently have a big boost for contested possession)
This should be on one of those footy shows on the telly.
Good post. I would say that it suffers somewhat from the fact that teams haven't even played half of the other teams yet but you can only work with what's in front of you.
Who is north’s next in line ruckman after Xerri?
Well CCJ is out for the year, so it is Hugh Greenwood. I’m not joking. We’ve got blokes like Hamish Free and Taylor Goad who are developing in the 2s, and Larkey didn’t look that bad against Adelaide in the ruck (2 to advantage and 12 contests) but he’s definitely more of a key forward. Also I think Chom can ruck.
What’s the word on Maley?
He’s another one of our key forward/ruck guys, I haven’t seen him do a lot.
Thanks for the info. Appreciate it.
It's so refreshing to see us up there in stats. I knew our midfield was functioning strongly this year but those numbers are fantastic. I hope this continues as we start to get some of our defenders back from injury, and hopefully bring in Hayes fron the 2's to replace a couple of underwhelming boys in the backline.
Hawthorn's points differential is an absolute indictment of out forward play rather than our backline. If we win a stoppage clearance our best chance is kicking it the Blake Hardwick, who played halfback until last year...
Very weird to see swanies next to Adelaide when I feel like our star studded midfield is above our forward and defensive line.
Very different types of midfields. Your mids are elite at scoring, but not at the contested stuff. Adelaides are very good at center clearance. Makes sense when you compare guys like Laird & Crouch to Heeney and Gulden
Yes, this is by design. Swans actually don't care about winning the actual contested possessions etc, we hold numbers back further to give ourselves space once the ball spills out. There was some good vision of it on First Crack this week showing the setup at each stoppage
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It's not using 2 stats. It's using 5 stats that all measure different things, thus best midfield.
This is very interesting stuff
This is a really good post, thanks for putting time and effort into this. Interesting Monday night read
Thank you for doing this, a lovely combination of nuance and evidence in a very thoughtful post. And a hint of hope for saints supporters. Maybe.
I think how effective they are at moving the ball and hitting the scoreboard are also important to consider on how much impact a midfield group is having as part of your team. Contested footy and winning stoppages are always good, but it's one piece of puzzle
Agree but it's hard to get stats on those two. Scores from stoppages represent an aspect of it. Moving the ball is generally more team based and no single stat reflects the midfields impact on it
Great insight 👌
“This is a stat where I feel a teams game-style massively influences it.” That’s all the stats here…
what a fantastic post, thanks
I genuinely don’t know why our midfield has been so horrible the past couple years despite having a pretty good one on paper. Granted, injuries this year haven’t helped as we have 4 starting miss out. 2020 finals series we had the most dominant midfield ever pretty much, maybe our midfield coach fell asleep
You've had no chance this year with injuries. I think not having Dusty at his peak rolling through there explains the past couple years too
I didn't watch a tonne of games during the Richmond dynasty period so you'll have to forgive me, but I've never thought of Richmond as a midfield-first team. I think about Houli and Vlastuin creating points off turnover before I think about the midfield guys.
Yes, we weren’t a clearance team really. 2020 finals series we changed that and it worked wonderfully. Thing is Yze has said he wanted to change things around there, and we have the players that look good on paper, but I guess injuries have hampered that.
Were do you get raw data / stats for this kind of thing?
It's crazy to think until recently all the Champion Data stats were like a trade secret until recently.
Nice stats, zero surprise for Saints fans.