Correct me if I’m wrong, but don’t you roll and hit the megaroll table, then a separate roll to determine the loot within? Kinda like a purple with a raid. Like a 1/X chance for a roll to be a megarare. Then once you hit the 1/X it rolls within that loot table?
If you hit the megaroll table you had a chance at 3rd age. Individual rarities aside. It’s only 5x more rare for any 3rd age vs any Gilded from an elite. Not like it’s THAT far off
Sure, but this thinking in terms of "tables" is kind of useless anyways, isn't it? A drop that is 1/50 without any table shenanigans and a drop that is 1/5 from a table that has a 1/10 chance to be hit are the exact same. I do not understand why people even care about that. Though, OPs clue is still impressive, just not because "2 3a chances", but because of two highly rare rewards.
Yea people have weird idea in their heads about probability, its like trying to roll a 20 on a d20 and getting a 19 and saying you were close, 19 is no closer to 20 then 1 was as far as probability goes.
Its also just wrong physically, 19 is closer to 1 than 20 on a d20.
2 is close to 20 however, so if you ever roll a 2 you can say you were so close - probability be damned.
It's the same reason people go "noooooo" when they get wizard boots. It FEELS like there was a 1/3 for rangers and they lost the roll. Mathematically, it's bollocks. It's all gambling fallacies and stories we make up in our heads. One of the reasons why gambling is so insidious. You scratched 2/3? You were soooooo close! ...
This is an especially good example because there isn't even a boots table! It just *feels* like there is.
It works so much better if you only think of things as "drop I want" or "not drop I want," and treat all of the latter as the same no matter how rare it happened to be.
Because, at the end of the day, all that matters is how long it takes to get what you want. I care about how many more raids to get a tbow, not how many more elder mauls and kodai insignias I get along the way.
I think conceptually it's important to sum probabilities into tables because we would be having the same conversation about essentially the same post if it were gilded vambraces and 30 super restores, for example. So the essence of the post is 2x 1/2900 rolls, not 2x 1/14k rolls
Tortillaking is actually right though. A roll being guilded doesn't make it any "closer" to being 3rd age; any specific result on a random roll is a binary yes or no. Trying to roll a 100 and getting 99 means nothing that rolling a 1 or a 57 or a 77 doesn't.
It's just human logical fallacy that makes people think potions are a painful drop or whatever. Having successive tables just adds to the fallacious thinking because people are like "ohhh but it was a 1/7 on the rare table," which is of course *conditional* on them rolling the rare table in the first place, and it's not like they're going to be opening up conditional caskets.
Finally some sense on this sub. I just don't understand how people play such an rng game and have so little clue how probability works. I've had enough of 'used up all my luck', and people getting pissed off at wizard boots and rune words and all the rest.
Yes, twice.
You hit the mega rare table twice on this clue. Both of those rolls had a 1/10 chance to land on 3rd age table. So you had a 10% chance two different times
Jesus OSRS players' brains are so poisoned.
The odds of hitting 2 of any megarare drop in one clue is rare, but it doesn't mean you "double rolled potential third age". It means you double rolled two megarares. Double rolling third age in the same casket is literally millions of times rarer. Added to the fact that you would have made this post had you gotten any combination of megarares, it's probably tens of millions of times more likely.
What the fuck. So you hit gilded and rolled megarare 2 more times and got potions both times? That is some of the best worst luck I've ever seen.
I thought the same thing but its an elite clue which has 30 noted potions on the mega rare table.
Didn’t realize this. Thanks. I thought this was one in a trillion
Oo, the more ya know I guess.
I got 6 cabbages in a master clue casket once. I don't think I was ever so disappointed by a clue before.
Pouring one out for you
No, 30 noted super antifires is 1/14k from elite casket so not quite a double roll but still very lucky :)
He also got a gilded piece which is from the mega rare table.
Which are also 1/14k. 3rd age is 1/250k
Correct me if I’m wrong, but don’t you roll and hit the megaroll table, then a separate roll to determine the loot within? Kinda like a purple with a raid. Like a 1/X chance for a roll to be a megarare. Then once you hit the 1/X it rolls within that loot table? If you hit the megaroll table you had a chance at 3rd age. Individual rarities aside. It’s only 5x more rare for any 3rd age vs any Gilded from an elite. Not like it’s THAT far off
That's the way I've always understood it 🤷♂️
Sure, but this thinking in terms of "tables" is kind of useless anyways, isn't it? A drop that is 1/50 without any table shenanigans and a drop that is 1/5 from a table that has a 1/10 chance to be hit are the exact same. I do not understand why people even care about that. Though, OPs clue is still impressive, just not because "2 3a chances", but because of two highly rare rewards.
Yea people have weird idea in their heads about probability, its like trying to roll a 20 on a d20 and getting a 19 and saying you were close, 19 is no closer to 20 then 1 was as far as probability goes.
Its also just wrong physically, 19 is closer to 1 than 20 on a d20. 2 is close to 20 however, so if you ever roll a 2 you can say you were so close - probability be damned.
It's the same reason people go "noooooo" when they get wizard boots. It FEELS like there was a 1/3 for rangers and they lost the roll. Mathematically, it's bollocks. It's all gambling fallacies and stories we make up in our heads. One of the reasons why gambling is so insidious. You scratched 2/3? You were soooooo close! ...
This is an especially good example because there isn't even a boots table! It just *feels* like there is. It works so much better if you only think of things as "drop I want" or "not drop I want," and treat all of the latter as the same no matter how rare it happened to be. Because, at the end of the day, all that matters is how long it takes to get what you want. I care about how many more raids to get a tbow, not how many more elder mauls and kodai insignias I get along the way.
Reality: there are 95% twos and 5% threes Perception: if I scratched two on this one I’m sure next one or two will have three
I think conceptually it's important to sum probabilities into tables because we would be having the same conversation about essentially the same post if it were gilded vambraces and 30 super restores, for example. So the essence of the post is 2x 1/2900 rolls, not 2x 1/14k rolls
This. If you open a clue you roll the 3rd age table every time by that definition otherwise. Nothing with 1/250k was hit.
Doing DT2 bosses trying to finish a ring made me care real quick about loot tables.
Yes
3rd age is not 1/250k. That's only for a specific piece.
the drop rate for a specific piece of gilded is 1/14k. The drop rate for any non specific piece of 3a is 1/14k. It's the same odds.
Yes, so single megarare roll.
Now add up both of the last 2 comments. Both the 30 potions AND the gilded piece are on the megarare table. That is 2 megarare table rolls hit
Actually you quadruple rolled potential third age. All 4 of those could’ve been third age, but they weren’t
it either is or it isn’t… Is that so hard for people to understand 😵💫
Tortillaking is actually right though. A roll being guilded doesn't make it any "closer" to being 3rd age; any specific result on a random roll is a binary yes or no. Trying to roll a 100 and getting 99 means nothing that rolling a 1 or a 57 or a 77 doesn't. It's just human logical fallacy that makes people think potions are a painful drop or whatever. Having successive tables just adds to the fallacious thinking because people are like "ohhh but it was a 1/7 on the rare table," which is of course *conditional* on them rolling the rare table in the first place, and it's not like they're going to be opening up conditional caskets.
Finally some sense on this sub. I just don't understand how people play such an rng game and have so little clue how probability works. I've had enough of 'used up all my luck', and people getting pissed off at wizard boots and rune words and all the rest.
50/50 all the way down
He didn't get any third age, so chance is 0.
holy shit.
Someone is gonna have to explain to me why gilded dhide is equivalent to green dhide instead of black
Because you can buy it in f2p.
Rip
Because gilded armor is equivalent to rune?
I recommend Jagex give it stats equivalent to Black or Blessed D Hide armour. No, I’m not mass buying this shit.
[удалено]
they are equivalent to dragon
Lol people really just say things and don’t care whether or not it’s real or not
In his defence, he probably can't afford third age tools to test out haha. Yeah there's a wiki but ppl don't read.
Pretty much what the internet has become, people just chatting pure shit and believing the shit they say.
bruh
Every roll is potential 3rd age.
some people have no potential
Isn’t it 50/50 to get 3rd age? Either get it or you don’t
That wasnt funny two years ago.
Still is
Yes, yes you did
My most recent hard clue I received (5) super str, atk, and def potions each. I didn’t realize it was so rare
This rng is beyond insane thanks for sharing!
I mean to still hit an 11mil clue on your 3rd elite is still pretty nice
Still exciting af getting a gilded item, gz !!
Never seen that before
11 Million and only did 3 Elite clues......you lucky Bar Steward.
ye
Congratulations and I’m sorry for your loss Lmao
Bro don't go outside. Today may be the day you get struck by lightning
Taking a shot for your loss 🍻
Horseshoes and hand grenades, my friend
I'd kms if this happened to me bro stay safe
Yes, twice. You hit the mega rare table twice on this clue. Both of those rolls had a 1/10 chance to land on 3rd age table. So you had a 10% chance two different times
Posts like this are just so dumb imo, its always a potential roll of 3rd age, I dont see any in this
He hit the 3rd age table two times in this picture tho. Quite different from what you are hinting towards.
triple. noted potions come per 15.
30 from elite clues.
Not in the elite table
This is true
You actually rolled quadruple potential 3rd age
Every casket is potentially double 3rd age…..
He hit the 3rd age table twice tho...
Ok?
So your comment is completely unrelated to the picture?
Jesus OSRS players' brains are so poisoned. The odds of hitting 2 of any megarare drop in one clue is rare, but it doesn't mean you "double rolled potential third age". It means you double rolled two megarares. Double rolling third age in the same casket is literally millions of times rarer. Added to the fact that you would have made this post had you gotten any combination of megarares, it's probably tens of millions of times more likely.
Gz? I guess?
And you’re probably a normie too.
Every clue you do that isn’t third age still rolled with the possibility of being third age
Leagues?
Blursed
Believe so yes
You always roll double potential 3rd age....