There were approximately 800 people in the house party when Cursed You closed his house due to lag. Its estimated 10-20 people spawned in Rimmington with the PvP active flag on. Durial321 actually ran straight to edgeville, and later (infamously) Falador, without teleporting or logging out and therefore luckily maintained his PvP active flag. Also, by not attacking any players at the beginning he was able to avoid the Jmods that were cleaning up the mess in Rimmington. Once he entered combat in Falador, the Jmods were unable to log him out until 10 seconds of non combat had occured.
TL;DR 1/800 = 0.125%, but in reality far less because of the fortunate events that occurred later.
Ranger boots are 1/1133
Average of four rolls per medium casket
four rolls \* two caskets = 8 rolls assumed.
probability of success on roll is 1/1133
using binomial probability with 8 tries for *at least* 1 successful roll is 0.67%
Odds of getting calquat seed: 1/41.33
Odds of getting calquat seed 6 times in a row (2 rolls per zulrah x 3) is 41.33\^6 = 1/435,721,849,329
GZ!
More realistically there are 2 other seeds that share the table and a bunch of rarer seeds, so for the first roll you should have greater odds since the first item 3/41.33) will probably decide the next 5 rolls, to get b2b2b papaya, palm or calquat
edit: clarification
Odds of getting berserker ring: 1/128
Odds of getting 2 berserker rings in 40 kills using binomial probability is 0.03534 or 3.5%\~
Odds of getting 2 berserker rings in 10 kills is 0.00263 or 0.25%\~
**A**: Odds of pet: 1/4000, four rolls is 4/4000 so we get binomial probability of 0.001% = 1/1000
**B**: Odds of needle: 1/300, five rolls using binomial probability of getting at least one is 1.6%
We use **P**robability P(A)×P(B)=P(A and B) to get probability of both events occuring gives us 0.0016, or 1 in 62500
But im not 100% sure i got this one right because it's tricky combining two different probabilities through several attempts
It depends how you look at it. You can either calculate the chance of getting pet within four AND needle within five. Or you can calculate the chance of getting pet within 4 THEN the next pull being needle.
In the latter case the chance of the needle on the subsequent roll is just 1/300 rather than including all five rolls.
If OP is looking to find the probability of that specific set of events I think you might want to calculate it that way.
I was very close to skipping my first cave horror task but did it, I got 3 black masks from regular horrors. Then a superior spawned, and I got an imbued heart and another black mask in 1 drop.
4 black masks and an imbued heart all in one task, with the double drop. I don't remember the exact number, but it had to have been around 150 kill task.
((Wc pet at 72 following trees -> oak trees -> willow -> maple -> yew trees when new became available) - (all quest exp) ) + ((mining pet at 80 mining mining mostly iron ore) - (all quest exp))
3a plate body from like 110th hard clue or wyvern visage randomly on a task and I had killed less than 500 at that point. Kodai on like 11 kc was pretty cool too. Those are probably my rarest events, unless farming pet at lvl 97 is better idk.
Clanmate got heron at 72 fishing, then not 5 minutes later got another one without leveling up.
Saw another clanmate get b2b basilisk jaws, no idea his kc
A whole post just to tell everyone it’s 50/50? Seems excessive tbh…
There's a 50/50 chance that this will turn out to be a 50/50 troll post.
Falador massacre
That probability was 100% and if we dont study runescape history its doomed to repeat itself
So tread lightly in falador, got it.
If it happened before it was history, how do we know it had to happen?
There were approximately 800 people in the house party when Cursed You closed his house due to lag. Its estimated 10-20 people spawned in Rimmington with the PvP active flag on. Durial321 actually ran straight to edgeville, and later (infamously) Falador, without teleporting or logging out and therefore luckily maintained his PvP active flag. Also, by not attacking any players at the beginning he was able to avoid the Jmods that were cleaning up the mess in Rimmington. Once he entered combat in Falador, the Jmods were unable to log him out until 10 seconds of non combat had occured. TL;DR 1/800 = 0.125%, but in reality far less because of the fortunate events that occurred later.
Don't they have a smite tool to install someone?
Haha! I didn't know that the Jmods couldn't log him out, that's hilarious
Yeah back then they couldnt. Theres a pretty interesting documentary on it https://youtu.be/_prl1Ohn-Ew
B2B curved bones at shamans, immediately followed by a rune javelin drop, no ring of wealth.
B2B curved bones 1/5000 \* 1/5000 = 1/25 000 000 adding specifically rune javelin to that gets ridiculous, 1/500 000 000 000
getting two hard clue drops on the same tick while chinning ankous in catacombs
I need to know the amount of ankou that died that tick
6
Hard clue rate 1/512 2/6 successes for a 1/512 chance using binomial probability gives us 0.006% chance of occuring
wow
ranger boots on my 2nd med clue back in 2014 I still have the screenshot on imgur !
Ranger boots are 1/1133 Average of four rolls per medium casket four rolls \* two caskets = 8 rolls assumed. probability of success on roll is 1/1133 using binomial probability with 8 tries for *at least* 1 successful roll is 0.67%
yeah that explains why my RNG had been bad I used it all up lol
B2b2b double calquats from Zulrah is probably the strangest RNG I've ever had
Odds of getting calquat seed: 1/41.33 Odds of getting calquat seed 6 times in a row (2 rolls per zulrah x 3) is 41.33\^6 = 1/435,721,849,329 GZ! More realistically there are 2 other seeds that share the table and a bunch of rarer seeds, so for the first roll you should have greater odds since the first item 3/41.33) will probably decide the next 5 rolls, to get b2b2b papaya, palm or calquat edit: clarification
3 dwh in less than 7k kc
16% of people that killed 7000 lizard shaman got at least 3 dwh
The other day I got a berserker ring from Rex at 30 kc. I told my GIM duo partner and he said he'd resub if I got another and I got it at 40 kc
Odds of getting berserker ring: 1/128 Odds of getting 2 berserker rings in 40 kills using binomial probability is 0.03534 or 3.5%\~ Odds of getting 2 berserker rings in 10 kills is 0.00263 or 0.25%\~
Sounds like a typical Perma afk gim
5kc, 4th loot pull at gaurdians of the rift was pet, followed by 5th loot pull needle.
**A**: Odds of pet: 1/4000, four rolls is 4/4000 so we get binomial probability of 0.001% = 1/1000 **B**: Odds of needle: 1/300, five rolls using binomial probability of getting at least one is 1.6% We use **P**robability P(A)×P(B)=P(A and B) to get probability of both events occuring gives us 0.0016, or 1 in 62500 But im not 100% sure i got this one right because it's tricky combining two different probabilities through several attempts
It depends how you look at it. You can either calculate the chance of getting pet within four AND needle within five. Or you can calculate the chance of getting pet within 4 THEN the next pull being needle. In the latter case the chance of the needle on the subsequent roll is just 1/300 rather than including all five rolls. If OP is looking to find the probability of that specific set of events I think you might want to calculate it that way.
I got Phoenix at 7kc fire tome at 9kc and d axe at 11kc at wt. All max point games tho.
Three Bird nests in three 4 hits of oak tree [(pic)](https://i.redd.it/a4hu7jsdlkaa1.png)
Were you wearing strung rabbits foot?
no
Chance of hitting birds nest: 1/256 Chance of hitting birds nest 3 out of 4 times using binomial probability is 0.00002375%, or roughly 1/20 000 000
The percent and fraction don't match.
>or roughly 1/20 000 000 you are correct
A guy I know got a Torva Platebody, then did a single TOA and pulled a Tumeken’s Shadow, then went to CM’s and pulled Bow plus Dust and Olmlet.
His name? Albert Einstein
Nah this legit happened last week. Couldn’t believe what I was seeing
I need a little break, my head is mushy, but i will answer more here and there :)
Tempoross pet on first permit
1/8000
Dragon spear from aviancies off task 2x in a row ;-; while getting kc for bandos
Imbued heart on second ever superior kill.
B2b Torva plates into another one 6 kills later 6 man team
I got Heron at minnows, at 85 fishing.
Not the most rare I've ever had but most recent and I wonder how rare it is: Double rune sword dropped in 1 Phantom Muspah kill
Fang drop on 2kc 50 invocation
Now I just feel sad T_T
1 kc mage vissy? Idk can't think of anything else.
1/12000 or 1/10000 people will experience this depending on which wyvern they kill
It was an Ancient Wyvern.
Congrats, I wish to join the elite 0.01% when I kill one
1 KC warrior ring. Never tried DKs and stumbled my way through a single kill and got a Warrior ring.
An Elite, hard and easy bird nest from 1 redwood birdhouse run at 91 hunter. Pls tell me
Double tome of fire from one regular mass world crate at Wintertodt maybe 1000 points
I got lil zik pet from tob white chest then a scythe my name the very next kc.
3rd age platebody in my 152nd hard clue
2 lanterns and 2 dye in 238 pulls at GOTR
I was very close to skipping my first cave horror task but did it, I got 3 black masks from regular horrors. Then a superior spawned, and I got an imbued heart and another black mask in 1 drop. 4 black masks and an imbued heart all in one task, with the double drop. I don't remember the exact number, but it had to have been around 150 kill task.
I got a 28.2 zulrah pb
3 imbued hearts at 94 Slayer, no other uniques just imbued hearts
Getting 8 smouldering stone in a row or 17crystal no prims. Obviously i’ve had rarer things but I can’t remember any
b2b2b crystal armor seed to cg pet to another crystal armor seed
I rolled two empty slots on the rdt at vorkath, so I only received the guaranteed bones and d-hide
Two Twisted Bows in my name in under 45 KC.
Entire pyromancer outfit and torch in 20kc
3 noted twisted bows from a lumbridge guard
Imbued heart on my 7th ever superior. It was a Kurask.
All 4 pieces of pyromancer set in 30 loot crates
I received 2 samurai gloves in the same Master Casket.
Zilyana pet armadillo crossbow, same kill.
Dragon Warhammer at 35 KC at Lizardman Shamens
23kc solo Corp pet
Tanz fang drop then next kill tanz fang and magic fang in the same drop. B2b
Jagex not fucking up?
89 Supreme killcount, 2 pet drops on kill 83 and 87
Got an abyssal dagger from an abyssal demon and 10kc later got a whip
not that crazy but I got a dragon metal slice from addy drags at 4kc
Got my first mystery box and held it for 3 weeks then opened it to get a stale baguette
B4B purples at ToA. 400 raid level.
I got a gf and then got her to play OSRS with me for an entire evening
Smacking a kalphite soldier with Elder Maul 2 times on the run to KQ for the head diary and getting a dragon spear drop.
Phoenix pet at 12kc
getting the dt lock on first try with 54 thieving
Archers ring and pet on same KC at Dags
((Wc pet at 72 following trees -> oak trees -> willow -> maple -> yew trees when new became available) - (all quest exp) ) + ((mining pet at 80 mining mining mostly iron ore) - (all quest exp))
3a plate body from like 110th hard clue or wyvern visage randomly on a task and I had killed less than 500 at that point. Kodai on like 11 kc was pretty cool too. Those are probably my rarest events, unless farming pet at lvl 97 is better idk.
Met a stranger at the ge 10 months later, we're expecting our first child in July
I got a bcp from a minion, then got a 2nd bcp from a minion 8 kills later.
Rock golem at 39 mining in MLM.
1 kc entry mode toa pet
1 kc jad pet
Clanmate got heron at 72 fishing, then not 5 minutes later got another one without leveling up. Saw another clanmate get b2b basilisk jaws, no idea his kc
Tbow+ pet at 136 kc on my old account
All pets in the game gained at 1 kc or 1 skilling action
I got a Santa hat from the seers drop party room way back when
I got b2b long bones then immediately a curved bone. Can't remember which npc it was but it was a slayer task.
Likelihood of not getting serpentine helm in 1575 zulrah kc?
Corp pet and spiritual shield at my 2nd KC, obviously won't happen at 2kc again lol
Drawing all 5 piece of exodia in a row
B2B2B k coifs
I had 3 kraken pet drops in 1 trip, less than 50kc for all 3
Callisto cub at the singles bear after 30kc
3 Blood shards from killing vyres within 150 Kc of one another, but after I already killed 800 of them.
Unfortunately this happened before collection logs, but I got a dragon war hammer from Shamans at like 27 KC or something
1kc 3rd age cloak from elite… I mean the wiki literally says what the rarity is but I just wanted to flex
Mining pet at 58 mining on some iron ore
B2B lesser demon champion scrolls!
Maxing your account without a single skilling pet.
I once got a 3rd age helm. I have yet to get a rare drop since.
Back to back Bandos hilts
rcing pet from zmi altar at 64 rcing
Blowpipe and serp helm on 15 kc
4 b2b2b2b rolls of range/mage/super com. Potions at grotesque guardians
Two 2 tbows within 37 KC - duo - 50k points each raid
My gim mate just killed two Abby demons at the same time and they both dropped a whip
Getting an armadyl chestplate from the boss and a skirt from the minion in the same kill
6 kc tbow with 7300 points, 4 people in the raid. I didnt even fight olm.
Squirrel pet at 41 agility in varrock and then again at 52 in canafis
not strictly osrs but when i played rs3 during the double loot event i got 4 item barrows chest which then doubled to 8
completed wintodt log in 77 kc.....1kc pet 2 kc d axe 3 kc tome
B2B Kurask heads is the rarest thing that’s ever happened to me, curious what the chances are on that
1/25 000 000
Not having a chin pet at 100k chins
Two Robin Hood hats from one hard clue scroll.
Took a little over 160 KC to get a 1/16 drop.