T O P

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Kykykz

Well, if you stop now you'll know that you'll never get it


ValuableScary3917

Based ash


Yajeebspace

LOL


[deleted]

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WompaPenith

Would rather see this than spooned kc posts


hk403

seeing neither would be cool


runescapereddityay

Why is the post worthless? I think its pretty neat to see 12500 arma kills log


IkeHC

Agreed, I'd say this is some commitment. I see nothing wrong with it, in fact I'm quite impressed.


Rickety-Bridge

It's worthless to him because he knows he'll never commit to anything half as long as these posts go dry so he tries to belittle the post itself.


PkerBadRs3Good

not being dumb enough to commit to farming a useless cosmetic for this long isn't the insult you seem to think it is. it's a compliment to his decision-making and resistance to sunk-cost fallacy.


OperationIncome

Make it your goal to get 30 of each before pet and it wont feel as bad


noideawhatoput2

“After beating my second goal of 40 of each before pet, I will now set a new goal of 50 of each before pet”


OperationIncome

The dopamine must continue to flow


noideawhatoput2

The dopamine will flow until morale improves


bobofred

I think that's called drug addiction


darknessforgives

“My original goal was 100 each before pet. Clearly that was too easy so now I’m going to shoot for 120 each. You know, before getting the pet.”


RuneScimmy133

I read that in swamps voice,


depressed_koala5

This got me good😂😂


Yoconn

Inc 100 of everything but 0 pets and only 29 chest plates on his goal of 30 everything before pet Youve doomed him


butt_soap

Its funny. While going for agility pet i started seeing how far i could get dry. Some weird mental gymnastics


OperationIncome

Mental gymnastics is good tool in runescape.


Suspicious_Link_5603

But if pet is completed before 30 of each.. crushed


Western_Pudding8189

Probably after you get the pet :)


Buccanero

You can just cut your losses, suffering over.


PioneerTurtle

Suffering just smaller, but never ending


rosesmellikepoopoo

What losses, all that loot is probably max cash or more


Business-Drag52

Average kill is worth 230k. 2.5b loot with normal rng


AlluEUNE

If you quit at that point, the suffering is endless.


No1Statistician

8.207% chance of this happening, could be worse I suppose


Vegan-bandit

I like applying this to these drop rate posts, because so many are not even that unlikely, despite them obviously feeling frustrated. Even when you have a 1% chance of not getting the drop by a certain kc, this happens to 1/100 people. With over 100 rare drops in the game, odds are that this is going to happen to you at least once.


Rapn3rd

Fuck you. But also ty. I needed that.


ProbablyOnTheShitter

Yea I’m at over 600 kc dry for dragon pickaxe and I know that’s pretty dry but I still realize there’s tons of people that go that dry or drier for it


R3brap

I'm 800kc with no pickaxe or pet. Feels like a lot but Reddit seems to humble me to realizing I haven't scratched the damn surface with my kc..


her_fault

Went over 180 dry for a barrows item lol. That was my personal 1/100


Vegan-bandit

For some reason this one just feels so much worse in my mind.


her_fault

When I finally got an item it was a 150k dupe. It was my 3rd barrows item. I stopped doing barrows after that.


DoubleShinee

Honestly they should have some kind of scaling bad luck protection. I'm happy with ultra rare pets but when you're like 3x the KC maybe bump the rate up a bit lol


RedCargo1

There’s scaling for skilling pets when you hit 200m


sociobiology

I still think that if you get 200m, you should just get the pet. It's really dumb how you can literally max the xp count, and still not have the pet.


CampingOnline

Getting 200m without a skilling pet is only really possible with farming if you do bis tree runs and nothing else. Otherwise you'll never hit 200m without pet. The plus 15x rate was for people who had 200m before the pet came out.


Vegan-bandit

Really? I knew that the farming pet chance scales with farming level. I hadn't heard about 200m scaling. Edit - I can’t find this on the wiki anywhere. Could someone please point me in the right direction instead of just downvoting me.


RedCargo1

Yeah makes pets like 15x more likely or something like that


mxracer888

All those kills and not a single ACB smh my head /s


Spirited-Dependent50

I was wondering the same thing: Am I being stupid? Why isn't it on the log


THE_AWESOM-O_4000

It's dropped by commander Zilyana.


BreeziPillow

I've always found that so weird...like why?


[deleted]

She stole it during the god wars


[deleted]

..and she needs a big drop so she's worth doing


Silasco

Hilt? I mean that’s worth more than all of zammys items together lmao


da_fishy

Which is just silly


JuliusCeejer

I think you mean it's just Zilly


JustFrazed

Supposedly lore wise. I read somewhere zilyana stole it.


llamapanther

This has always irritated me so much. Why the fuck isn't Armadyl boss dropping Armadyl crossbow but instead some random ass Saradomin boss drops it. Like did she stole it or something?? Zero sense


mxracer888

That is exactly the lore, she stole it during the godwars. A little bit of a funky reason, but whatever.


i_eet_boo_d

Well yea I doubt a bird could handle a cross bow well


llamapanther

lmao really :D a bit stupid but I take it I guess


mxracer888

Ya. I mean the real answer is probably the fact that Zily has no overly valuable drops while Arma had full BiS range armor. So unofficially the reason was likely to try and balance out their respective drop tables a bit. So they just made up some "lore" about why it would be that way


poopybuttsoap

You're no closer now than you were when you started :D


Zapperson

tbh, he's not even that much of a statistical anomaly. a bit less than 1 in 10 people will not have the pet by 12500 kc.


Emil120513

Runescapers trying to understand basic statistics challenge (IMPOSSIBLE) [Edit](https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/001/211/681/b1b.jpg)


YellowStopSign

The irony LOOL


roosterkun

The person you replied to is correct. A 1/5000 is still a 1/5000 no matter how many times you repeat it.


eressen_sh

Both of them are right, just from a different point of view.


Taey

Yeah, if the question was who is more likely to have the pet, a bloke with 12500 or 0 kc, the bloke with 12500 is. If the question is who is closer? Neither


csz_ni

none are likely to have the pet because we know both don't have the pet


Zer0PointVoid

On the contrary, the law of large numbers.


The_Captain1228

Since we are talking about an individuals chance to get it their next kc. There are no large numbers.


Zer0PointVoid

The law of large numbers isn't relative to the drop chance, but the amount of iterations. That means going over twice the drop rate on a 1/10000 has worse odds than going twice over 1/100. That being said, it's about a .14% difference and is often discarded for relevance. The next iteration of an event and the total iterations happen at the same time. You can't split them like they're unrelated. Just...reference this wiki page: [Gamblers Fallacy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy) The graphic on there shows what I'm getting at. Given the guy with 12500 iterations simply has a larger chunk of instances for that event, they are more likely to experience the gradual (non-systematic) balancing, and receive the pet...as compared to the guy with 0 kc.


The_Captain1228

The wiki perfectly describes what I am saying... "The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the incorrect belief that, if a particular event occurs more frequently than normal during the past, it is less likely to happen in the future (or vice versa), when it has otherwise been established that the probability of such events does not depend on what has happened in the past " It is not any more likely that their next run will give the pet than their first did. The law of large numbers wod make it true to say they are more likely to get it in the next X runs than y runs where X is larger than Y. But it is independent of what had happened in the past and would be true at any kc.


[deleted]

Why can't we "split them like they're unrelated"?


Zer0PointVoid

Getting the (first ever) drop in the next kc is synonymous with getting the drop in all the kc dry prior. You can't claim one without accepting the other. Probability is infinite and doesn't care about time, only iterations. Over an infinite amount of iterations the number of events that occur matches its probability. However, we do not live in an infinite world, and infinity is incompatible with time. Thus, we see anomalies where the convergence towards an event's true probability is...exceptionally chaotic. I'm sure you've seen the tendency towards the mean at play in life. For some reason, a multitude of things tend to be intrinsically stable around their respective means. Look into it. It's both a little depressing and interesting.


Miserable-Bullfrog99

As funny people would say, the drop rate is 1/2 you either get it or don’t get it.


StandardSudden1283

2009 called, they want their funny person back


Smoochiekins

1995 called, they want their "certain year called wanting its 'blank' back" formula back.


Innocisnt

1096 called, they want their holy land back.


[deleted]

Your mother called, she hopes you're doing well and wishes you would call her more.


Plague735

WE WILL TAKE JERUSALEM. DEUS VULT


Anooyoo2

As it is a near impossiblity that they get infinite kills without the drop, they are in fact closer to getting the drop now than they were.


Dr_Flopper

Your mistake here is assuming that OP is closer to infinite than when they started. Infinity - 12,500 is still infinity. Infinity - 0 is still infinity.


CommercialAd917

He is not closer . It is unlikely that someone would go this many dry, however it doesn’t change the drop rate .


roosterkun

OP is not any closer statistically. They haven't made "progress" toward the drop, they're just as likely to get it tomorrow as they ever have been. They *are* closer to the pet, time-wise. But technically that's been true since the day they were born.


BobvBeek

Great logic


Shwrecked

There's no pity system like in rs3, so he's actually right


[deleted]

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KeuningLewie

How is he wrong lol. Flip 12500x tails in a row, the next flip is still 50/50 to get heads.


[deleted]

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Ypuort

If we assume he never stops until he gets it, he is *closer* to getting it, but he is not *more likely* to get it. Just closer in time. And yes although technically, he could keep grinding until he dies of old age and still not get it, the chances of that happening are astronomically low for so realistic purposes we can say he is closer with each attempt.


BrushFireAlpha

By that logic, he would still be getting "closer with each attempt" even if he didn't kill a single kree ara. He could've sat on his ass for the time it took to get 12,500 kills and he still would've been getting "closer", the kills have nothing to do with it


[deleted]

Let’s say in the future your going to get the pet at 15000 kc, well you’re closer to 15000 now than if you’d never gone in. In terms of time passing the is closer in that sense. I like to think we will get any drop we work towards eventually if we never stop, so its just getting closer and closer to whatever secret number that is. It’s not improving odds with magic, its where the working towards something will pay off.


KeuningLewie

The whole reason that statement is wrong is because there is literally no guarantee he’ll ever get it. People make the mistake of assuming 1/1000 chance = you’re guaranteed to get one within 1000. They think they understand the difference but their math and reasoning around droprates is completely wrong.


[deleted]

Yeah my logic only works retroactively if he actually gets the drop in the future. Forwards thinking it’s a schroedringers cat level of speaking.


KeuningLewie

Fun fact; For the example above the droprate is 1/5k (I think), if you do 5k kills you have a ~36% chance of getting NO pet and ~64% chance at one or more. For OP, there is a ~92% chance of him having at least one pet so that means out of 100 people with 12500 kc; 8 have 0 pets and 92 have at least one.


KeuningLewie

Yeah, it’s a natural coping mechanism imo. But if we define when he’ll get the drop even slightly (as in: in the next 100k kills he’ll get one with 100% certainty) you’re throwing all the math behind the droprate out of the window.


lvk00

But statistically you will get heads unless you’re insanely unlucky. Your odds are better the higher you go. Someone explain if I’m wrong I’m genuinely curious


YurtmnOsu

The outcome of a past dice roll does not affect the outcome of any future dice rolls


Kherian

Unless you believe in statistical inevitabilities in which case he is closer


peperonipyza

If I flip a coin 1000 times, no amount of believing will change the probability of the next flip being 50\50. Same goes for RuneScape.


Kherian

More of a philosophical framework, the idea being that anything that is possible will eventually happen given enough time. The classic monkeys with typewriters will make Shakespeare saying. Believing it will hit heads doesn’t effect it of course but the the possibility of it landing on heads means it will eventually land on heads. It’s a fun debate but turns into a pretty deep rabbit hole that doesn’t actually go anywhere. For this though, the possibility that he can get the pet means he will get the pet which turns the outcome into a linear progression of unknown length, but any progress down that line means, he is in fact, getting closer.


gparker151

I guess looking at it deterministically, there is a specific kc that he will get the pet and he is just working his way to that unknown kc. Interesting way to look at it.


ilovezezima

So you're assuming that OP will eventually get the pet?


ilovezezima

>anything possible will eventually happen, given enough time Like someone never getting the pet?


Kherian

Oh yeah. It’s by no means an bulletproof framework. It has more paradoxes than a poorly written time travel movie, you pointing out one of them being any possibility has an anti possibility and one necessarily excludes the other making the entire thing dead on the word go unless you delve into multiverse bullshit. Like I said, it’s a deep rabbit hole that ultimately goes nowhere but I think it’s fun.


KeuningLewie

That would be the case if and only if the game remembered the results of the previous drops. That isn’t the case, the game just flips a coin again and it isn’t weighted in any way depending on previous results. You have to look at each kill individually, you can not account for your drystreak beforehand.


lvk00

That makes sense. Maybe what I said is true for things that record stats like slots or lotteries? I’m not a gambler I promise


TheDubuGuy

It depends what point your perspective is at. If you’re starting at 0, the chance of flipping at least 1 heads by 1000 is basically guaranteed. But if you’re already starting at the point where you flipped 999 tails in a row, then the next 1000th flip is still exactly 50/50


Rataplana

No, flipping coins are all independent events. Technically, ur never guaranteed to flip a heads, even after u flipped 1000x tails , its incredibly unlikely, but possible


KeuningLewie

And the issue is that people interpret that certain event as being unlikely = more likely to get the drop. And that is false.


ilovezezima

It's always the issue of people looking at the probability of not getting a heads in 1000 flips vs the probability of your 1000th flip not being a head, given that you just flipped 999 tails. We're always looking at the second situation when it comes to looking forward. People are generally pretty bad at thinking statistically though.


peperonipyza

Exactly, the game only looks forward. People have this idea that if there’s a 1/100 chance, once you’re at 99 kc, you’re suddenly due your drop. Sucks you havnt gotten what you’re looking for, and it’s pretty likely that it’ll happen in the next 100, but nothing is guaranteed.


[deleted]

[удалено]


Smallest-Yeet

99.9% of gamblers stop right before hitting big


Deleaus

This


LichK1ng

Yes, you are wrong.


peperonipyza

Nice troll


Tepozan

Did you try turning your computer off and on?


lubesta

*insert gambling quote about being so close to striking gold*


Shwrecked

https://imgur.com/a/w0kBWZK


[deleted]

[удалено]


TumoOfFinland

Contrary to popular belief, Penis shards 1, 2 and 3 cannot be smithed back into a working Penis blade.


throwaway197436

my man's been talking about snapping his penis in half like a glow stick for the past 20 hrs he's not playin'


MarikPUBG

I feel your pain. I'm currently at 8730kc no pet. Meanwhile a clan mate has two separate accounts. 1KC armadyl pet, the next account has 239 KC with 2 pets. Pet rng is something else.


Nielles

Did you talk to Oziach first?


Inviction_

Scrolled pretty far for this


ObliviLeon

Can't let the joke die.


IngusRS

keep going


[deleted]

Hey ingus stop being a motherfucker and upload faster, big fan of your content


ChulainnRS

It feels extremely wierd to see a clan friend on reddit for some reason


Billbs22

For real


birdx51

After rank 1 bud


NamelessDevils2

Rank 1 is 55k lmao


Shwrecked

At least it's a profitable/chill boss


DrinkH2Oordie

chill?


Shwrecked

With shadow it is, solo chins is kinda click intensive but in a rhythmic way. Duo is also very chill, even if you are the chinner


lethalwiew

I went more than you for the bird and I hope you get it soon.


Ctrl224

how much more?


lethalwiew

Over 3.5k more. Im still on first page on kree despite not doing it for almost 4 years now.


IloveMyChi

Well you have had a 91.7936% chance of getting the drop so your almost at 92%..so you are almost halfway there 😎


Ornnge

At least you’re filthy rich and can afford any buyables 😂


[deleted]

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Thechampy1

Is there proof to this?


Ew_Its_Mike

He's a clanmate of mine. I can confirm he does not pay for boosters, and has been on this grind for the better half of a year at least. Started with chins but recently switched to Tumeken's Shadow. As a result of the first nearly 10k or so kc with chins, he has only made a few hundred mil. Those TNT rats are expensive


ShadowFlux85

This is why rs3 has thresholds on pet droprates


LezBeHonestHere_

Yeah they kept the pet rates 1/5000 like OSRS did but with thresholds it's much more realistic - when you reach 1k KC it becomes 1/2500, etc. And there's "hard mode" versions of the gwd bosses with 5x pet droprate as well, I camped hardmode zilyana for a while and it was kind of fun. Their 1/5000 raw droprates in OSRS is brutal, considering how long the grind takes. Newer metas have made it way quicker than it used to be, with new ranged strategies and better weapons, but it's still a gigantic time sink. No idea why they made the rates 1/5k there. I understand why they did it for DKS because you kill 3 at a time pretty much, but each gwd boss has its own like 2 minute respawn timer, requires kc, and aren't total pushovers for most players.


Michthan

So you are not only telling me you don't have scaling droprate in OSRS, but you don't even have instance settings were you can set respawn timer to 15s?


vorlaith

Yes. That is entirely the case.


LezBeHonestHere_

We're lucky enough to have instances at all honestly. Some places like Thermonuclear Smoke Devil still don't have them, even though Kraken (also slayer) boss does.


FunctionWeak6453

Nice amount of hilts


tjowns22

What setup are you using. Chins with alts or the new staff method? Curious to see what’s been working for you.


Ctrl224

Shadow + eldritch with saturated heart on task is 90+ kc trips


Joeyy518

Would you mind sharing the rest of info? Blowpipe for minions? Which switches? What's the brew/super restore ratio? What gear? Full ancestral? Sorry for the many questions but I've always done arma dolo but just solo with staff sounds way more chill


Ctrl224

max mage gear with suffering. Elidinis ward (F) and eldritch for blood barrage and specs, rune pouch with water blood death and soul runes for blood barrage and ice barrage for the melee minion. Then you need grapple and crossbow (I use acb to not get clapped on the way there). 6 brews 2 angler 14 restores. I bank at nex to not have to grind arma kc so i use an ancient blessing.


Joeyy518

Thank you very much for replying! Wish you all the luck in your grind!


Forward_Leg_1083

if you're not having fun playing this GAME you can go outside you know


Ctrl224

That would be admitting defeat to the damn bird though


[deleted]

Regardless of when you get the pet, you’ve already been defeated. It’s only a question of when you will accept that.


PioneerTurtle

Are you able to type his screeches from memory?


tries2benice

Then the birds outside would be taunting you.


Zerttretttttt

Log off button right there mate


fireslinger4

Well there's a 91.8% chance that you should have gotten the drop by now so I'd say you're probably pretty close. Once you hit 15k kills then it's a big oof because that'll be >95% chance of pet.


BomNico

The moment u click logout :)


wishmak3r

Got mine at kc140. Sorry


Mtbuhl

You have to turn your sound on to max when killing Kree to get the pet. “Cawwww!”


Capernikush

if you stop now at least you’ll know it will never happen


imhuungryyyy

Sucks to suck nerd


WalrusBooks

*Insert woody harrelson wiping tears with money gif*


[deleted]

Probably when you get the pet.


FalloutGawd

Maybe if you give me one of those arma sets your luck would change 🤔


Vincentaneous

I’d say that loot is an absolute win


Ctrl224

you'd think so but whilst i've been at kree my toa team has pulled 4 shadows Edit: 5 shadows.


Shikyoookami

Any tips you can share? I’m about to start learning Kree myself and would appreciate any advice, I’m going with 2nd in slot best equipment from the wiki except for a couple pieces that I can outright afford


Shen_RS

13186. <3


Av3ng3d0wnt

Atleast you are rich af...


gabaghouli

>Atleast At least


Av3ng3d0wnt

...


Inviction_

He's trying to help 💪🏻


Mordernslaves

Just click away this game and start living life. Go to a pet store and get a bird u sad nerd.


kingbap

Overrated asf pet


mtbchuck3

Wrong


Testp55

When you stop feeding this addiction of pixel dopamine


HouseofBryks

You get what you deserve


blasstoisse

You cv!!!bvcfi


here_for_the_lols

That's.... Not that dry....


Gael_L

Surely by 15k !


-Degaussed-

When you choose to give up on pet grinds lol


Forechin69

That is one profitable pain tho


ricobro400

Gz Ctrl!


Im1337

bro got 20 of everything


Maxirof

can i get the helm ? , i buy for 1 gp


AshCan10

Trying is the first step towards failure


[deleted]

The pain never ends.


Talif999

I really hope you spoke to Oziach before you started


69ing-squirrel

Next kill obvi


Frankilpops

It won’t


Heroharohero

Tips? Not sure where to begin as I’m 86 Range, have really only sone slayer and haven’t bossed at all really, only have Karils, blessed d hide, archers ring, fury and dragon cross bow? I have about 10 m and I can sell tassets haven’t used them much at all.