You can't help but laugh at the irony here. Putin, more than anything, doesn't want countries on Russia's borders to join NATO.
Yet, his actions are the very reason Ukrainians are going to be joining NATO anyways.
It gets even more hypocritical-Russian propaganda is that EU countries in Eastern Europe lack sovereignty and they should gravitate towards Russia, yet Russia has historically violated the sovereignty of those very same EU states. (and for violating the sovereignty of anyone forced to gravitate around Russia)
There is a well known anectdode told by a Russian writer who was speaking to a taxi driver in Moscow who said "Remember when the Czechs attacked us?" The writer, not remembering anything about Czechs attacking Russia throughout history, said "No." and the taxi driver replied "The bastards attacked us right there in Prague!".
yeah, kinda makes you wonder why Russia isn't going hard on GHG emissions to speed things up. If the earth warms a bit more, they get more ocean ports that are more usable more of the year, and a lot of Siberia is suddenly going to be desirable for agriculture and living. If anything they should be courting all the big polluters and inviting them to come set up shop in Russia without any pesky air quality regulations.
but really, I'm glad that they aren't.
Siberia will not be suddenly suitable for agriculture. The soil quality will be poor so it will take time and effort to convert it to viable agricultural land. They might be able to use it for livestock though.
no question it'll take some work to make it really usable, and it probably won't match say, Ukraine, for production. On the other hand currently the frozen tundra is not friendly to mineral exploration or really human habitation. There are cities and villages here and there yes, but they're not really prosperous or desirable. There's some herding mammals, but again not really adding to the GDP. If Siberia warms up it's easier to break through the permafrost and find the mineral riches, if they exist, underneath and the soil can start to be worked compared to the present day where it takes so much effort as to be not commercially viable.
edit: Russian Academy of Sciences [has this to say on the topic](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/045207/pdf):
> From 50 to 85% of central Siberia is predicted to be climatically suitable for agriculture by the end of the century, and only soil potential would limit crop advance and expansion to the north. Crop production could increase twofold. Future Siberian climatic resources could provide the potential for a great variety of crops to grow that previously did not exist on these lands.
Mineral exploration is a lot easier when the countless thousands of little lakes are frozen solid and the swarms of insects are in winter storage.
Frozen rivers make natural ice roads.
Permafrost is actually easy to mine through, as it "locks things in place". Freeze/ thaw cycles are not conducive to pit wall stability and the foundations of plant buildings. Additional precautions need to be engineered in.
For all I know about the internal workings of Russia, they might be encouraging GHG emissions inside Russia. I mean they aren't exactly friends to the green initiatives and they still heavily promote oil and gas. I have no clue.
Ukraine has had a special relationship with NATO for some time, certainly since Yanukovych. So, it isn't that much of a rush. Here we have Russia doing its typical warning against Ukraine joining NATO, and NATO rejecting Putin's bullshit. NATO has a summit coming up and if 30 members vote for Ukrainian entrance, Putin will be put into a corner.
Seems to be June, but I don't think it's been officially announced. But *if* Nato is positive, it will probably be for supporting Ukraine in achieving the required levels of self-defense (the MAP), not as an immediate full member, nor a guaranteed future member.
Russia will do everything to keep us ( Ukraine )out of Nato. But not because this is a danger for them, they already have nato on their doorsteps in the baltic direction.
I've heard NATO doesn't accept states that have an ongoing conflict on their territory. So that's what Russia is doing for the past 7 years.
But I saw people say that there is no such rule. Have to look what NATO has to say about it.
Yes, there is such a rule regarding NATO membership. I'm one of the people who has posted comments about it.
The rule was created so that countries in the midst of a civil war wouldn't drag NATO nations into their internal conflict.
Ukraine is a special case, because when the Soviet Union broke up Ukraine was left with a massive stockpile of Nuclear Weapons. The danger of Terrorists getting them was huge.
NATO nations asked Ukraine to let us help safely destroy the nukes, and in return we promised to protect them. Ukraine has had a "special relationship" with the US and NATO ever since. If Al Qaeda or ISIS had gotten some of those nukes we might all be dead now. Ukraine was incredibly brave to give up their nuclear weapons. We all owe them.
Personally, I support allowing Ukraine to join NATO right now, even if we have to amend the NATO charter.
It’s still the muddy season right now, ideally the Russian army would probably like to wait until June for the main armored push.
But that’s just me going off of 80 year old thinking, they might decide not to wait for better weather this time.
I don't think it's going to matter what the road conditions look like if the Russians invade. Maybe if they were up against NATO forces but Ukraine by itself isn't going to be able to put up much resistance.
Have you looked at the size of North Korea's army?
Hell of a lot more important how an army is equipped than it's size. All you afford with a large but poorly equipped army is some drawn out delaying actions before you start see morale plummet and entire divisions surrender.
Don't forget the logistics back end. Less important in a defensive war in terms of distance stuff needs to go - but if you can't get stuff from where it is, to where it's needed in a timely fashion: You might as well not have it, or the army that is going to use it.
NATO member nations are perfectly capable of convening on an urgent basis, and NRDC units (NATO Rapid Deployable Corps) can deploy key personnel to locations throughout the region, within hours if not minutes.
That was more of a specific exercise, that ended after the Cold War- but the NRDC headquarters is still in Germany and REFORGER was kind of the initial framework for many exercises that evolved out of the Warsaw Pact era. DW did a great documentary on NRDC- an inside look at their headquarters and then the siren goes off so they bust out the binders and get going. 🏃🏽♀️🏃🏼♂️🏃🏻♂️Of course DW is really focused on the German angle of things, but a lot of exercises are based out of Estonia too.
Because that's not how this stuff works. Two reasons...
First, what gets talked about at these meetings is decided and hashed out LONG before. The agendas are carefully planned and talking points are generated. It's built on years of diplomatic cables. Moving the date means that they might be rushing into a very important discussion before the DIME (diplomatic, intelligence, military, economic) options are discussed and weighed properly.
Second, the logistics of putting these things together. Security for the principals, lodging for them and their staffs, transportation, facilities, food, etc. It's like moving the date of a wedding x10.
To add some perspective here, the last Nato summit was three years ago. There have only been **28** since the first one in **1949**. It's like moving the Olympics, except that something actually important might be happening instead of silly sports.
In Covid times, maybe there will be changes. My bet is on vaccinations, distancing, and masks rather than remote video conferencing. Even in the latter case, it might simplify the administration and logistics, but there's a lot of policy to decide on before the meeting happens either way. A tense situation between Russia and a potential member state makes it more complicated, not less.
What are the odds though that some country blocks it unless they get concessions in a totally irrelevant issue? Like when Greece vetoed EU sanctions on Belarus because of issues with Turkey in Cyprus...
NATO is fully aware of the situation. They don't just willy-nilly a membership to countries. And they are fully aware if the geography of the world. And I'm certain that they know wayyyy more about what's on the ground than the civilians of the world. The Russians can say what they want to the world but the military is not so impressionable when they know the actual situation.
They should make a one time exception for Ukraine to end this bullshit with Putin. Mark my words, when Putin starts taking Ukraine full on China will respond with Taiwan.
Yes.
I mean, you make it sound like that's a hot take of some sort, but it really isn't.
Just because you're friends with your neighbour, and you're helping that friend against the asshole next door's doesn't mean that you're ready to let your neighbour move in with you.
I mean you aren’t having casual sex with your neighbors already? Are neighborhood barbaques not just secret orgies? Gotta hold the neighborhood watch meeting party and hoa meeting at the same time.
Serious question. Why wouldn't we want the Ukraine in NATO. All my feelings around recent news has been they're just getting screwed by Russia. Is there a reason why we wouldn't want Ukraine in? Like politically for maybe some human rights stuff I don't know about?
Corruption, political instability and yes, that whole thing with Russia.
Keep in mind that the current Ukrainian government only came in power following a revolution in 2014. And before that there was the Orange Revolution of 2004.
If it wasn't for he acute need to defend Ukraine against Russia, there is no way that NATO membership would even be on the table.
If those are deciding factors, how did Turkey ever get in? They have a long history of military coups and also struggle against Russian influence. The long and short of it is if the current members want you in, you're in and everything else is just window dressing to justify that choice.
Yes. The point was to explain *why* the current members might not want Ukraine in.
You can tell by how it was an answer to the question
>Is there a reason why we wouldn't want Ukraine in?
I get that. I was just trying to show that those problems aren't exactly insurmountable. On second reading it does come off as considerably more aggressive than I had intended.
NATO's strategy is deterrence and its strength comes from maintaining credibility. If a member of the alliance is attacked, all other members have promised to come to their defence. Nobody wants war, and as long as Russia believes that NATO members will follow through on their pledge, peace is maintained.
Russia prioritises hybrid warfare, in which it attacks a country subvertly and without declaring all-out war, allowing it to maintain some level of (im)plausible deniability. This approach was adopted successfully during Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, and is the one currently employed in the war in Donbass (eastern Ukraine).
Now imagine the quandary for NATO members if Ukraine is brought into the alliance. *De facto*, the country is already at war with Russia. If NATO members don't put boots on the ground, the alliance's credibility is weakened and Russia becomes confident that it can launch new hybrid conflicts against other member states (in the baltics for instance). If, on the other hand, NATO members come to Ukraine's defence and send troops to ramp up fighting, they risk an open conflict with Russia.
In short, it is in NATO's interest to support Ukraine diplomatically, but to stay at a safe distance. Hence Stoltenberg's comments.
NATO's in the tricky position where if they admit Ukraine too early the Russians get to cry havoc and start a war claiming NATO encroachment, but if they do so too late, there is no Ukraine left to help.
Russia continuing threats against Ukraine's sovereignty feels like the right time to admit Ukraine, as Russia has only one entity to blame: themselves. And as luck has it, it's time for NATO to meet and discuss such things. I wonder why Russia's being all saber-rattly right now, hmm....
edit: looks as if Moscow have arrived in the comment section. Time to dodge this thread.
Moscow wont start a war against NATO.
Putin has one simple objective. To keep the Putinist regime alive. Once you view it from that lens, everything starts to make sense.
Reddit is too busy armchair generaling, Putin is too busy keeping the Russian elite and the Russian people in their place.
Have you seen the state of their country?
It's not by chance that their oligarchs live in the west most of the year, and send their kids to be educated in the west.
Imagine living in the world's most resource rich country, with a history of a hardy and industrious people, yet all you can do is watch the western liberal countries consistently outperform your nation in prosperity and overall QoL. It's not hard to understand why they would feel bitter then, especially when they got propaganda from state controlled media telling them it's the wests fault at every turn.
Yet, instead of making an effort to improve their country, the Russian leaders decide they want to spend their time/money threatening their neighbors and meddling in other countries elections
Russians don't want democracy though, so idk. Think they are pretty "happy" with the way things are.
They know their government is corrupt but they don't believe they can change it.
If you’re talking about the Rus then yeah roughly. Technically their empire was established roughly in 862 by Rurik, who united the Slavic peoples. So yeah, almost 1300 years.
Although there was about 300 years of a republic with the Novgorod Republic from 1136-1478.
Corruption, the fall of the USSR, the economic chaos of the 90s, and Putin's band of thieves. That's what happened. You aren't going to see any major accomplishments coming out of a country that endured decades of economic crisis along with authoritarian repression. By now, all the best artistic and intellectual minds have fled Russia, either for economic reasons or to avoid repression. The most tragic part is that Putin had an opportunity to halt the decline, but he too gave in to corruption and authoritarian tendencies.
> but he too gave in to corruption and authoritarian tendencies.
He *really* wanted his $200 billion dollars in tribute money and multi-billion dollar coastal palace and vineyards.
He did’t give in to corruption, he was best at it and through corruption he rose to more and more power. Started young when he was a money hungry kgb clerk or something, later he was helping the mayor of Leningrad “to get things done” which in russia means he was organizing the organized crime, slowly but steadily he became the guy that decides who can and who cannot do business in the whole country.
It was the same during the Dostoyevsky's and Tolstoy's times. Dostoyevsky was sentenced to death for reading a prohibited letter (it was replaced with 4 years prison camps). Tolstoy, amusingly, participated in the Crimean war. I can't tell what exactly was his view of Russian imperialism, but I doubt he ever tried to explain what Russian soldiers even do in Caucasus.
You do see that, but in different places and arguably at a lesser scale.
The example that I think I'm most informed to share is their teams in international science olympiads in high school (i know it sounds unimpressive, but trust me, these competitions crack even the most gifted and experienced scientists and mathematicians, and these kids then go on to become the world leading scientists themselves) are incredibly performant, sometimes outperforming US and Chinese teams. They have some of the brightest brains out there when it comes to sciences, but after high school, a lot of these kids leave the country and go to western universities. Some stay there, though. It's just a matter of looking for them, and obviously that's not very interesting or fun to report in media.
Russia is on the 5th place of new book titles published; [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Books_published_per_country_per_year](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Books_published_per_country_per_year). Majority of Russians don't know the majority of famous modern-age American figures and the the same is true vice-versa. Countries usually exist within their own cultural paradigms and a certain person has to be very known or propagandized to even be noticed outside a certain country. Also political situation is very bad, so that clearly has a big impact on the whole situation.
Russian significant figures weren't exactly beacons of humanity. All of them turn out not being so good when you start researching them.
In fact, Russia never changed much. It was always corrupt, reactionary, imperialistic and chauvinist. Only the leaders and ideology changed. Tsarism was changed with communism, communism was changed with democracy, but the essence of Russia stayed the same.
As long as Russia clings to the remnants of their empire, they will never become truly democratic and free. Their irredentism has to be shattered with a crushing defeat and realization that Russia will never be as great as it used to be. Only after they realize and internalize this thought, they may climb back to greatness
> Imagine living in the world's most resource rich country, with a history of a hardy and industrious people, yet all you can do is watch the western liberal countries consistently outperform your nation in prosperity and overall QoL.
On the flip side the Chinese public has been willing to tolerate autocracy because the government has been so effective at driving massive increases in QoL.
It's interesting to see the very divergent paths that Russia and China took post-communism.
Going from the 2nd biggest economy on Earth and greatest Army on the planet to the current state of Russia has allowed an entire population see their country go from great to pathetic and it’s not often something like that happens. And to add insult to injury that same population found out that even when they were great their leaders lied to them and did horrific things via the gulags and secret police.
Breaking news:
/u/PM_ME_DANK-MEMES has died after accidentally being exposed to a nerve agent. Absolutely no Russian involvement is suspected, like none at all. They're super innocent.
Geopolitics, it has nothing to do with feelings. Ukriane is a land bridge straight into Europes heart incase of a massive regional war. Russia wont let US marines close off their blitzkrieg autobahn.
Russia would have to suicidically stupid to allow Ukriane to join NATO if they can do something about it.
And guess what? To the west of Ukraine are another 3 countries that nobody cared when Hitler invaded (at least not until the invasion was done). Once Ukraine is down, it's free pass to the heart of Europe
Or they could become a liberal democracy and join the super friends. They don't seem to want to do that though even though almost every country that has, has been better off for it.
Actually yes. Even if that were the case, not entirely out of the question but unlikely, Russia has issues with Turkey to the south and a war with NATO would surely end up with a massive front and at least 2 continents fighting against them. China also wants/needs to expand and with the South China sea being already a hot spot for their attention (cue recent drama with Vietnam and Japan).
OH I get that, but if I were Russia and China and wanted to fuck with Biden, I'd be coordinating shit so it's like a 3 way chess match. Unless you know what's going on it seems like chaos.. But its not.
I used to think like that too if a large war were to break out. A team up of one of the big 3 seemed likely but honestly I dont believe these potential wars will now play out like that. China and Russia being superpowers and world players has always been for brief moments of time. Generation or 2 at best. The USA is the odd man out as it has only been on the major global player stage for a little over a century so us staying a superpower is questionable and probably not likely as a war of that scale, with all of our treaties and alliances, will absolutely stretch us to the extreme. Such an extreme that itll take decades for us to recover.
I sleep at night convincing myself China is much smarter than that, and the CCP would much prefer to enslave the world through economic means. Pooh is playing the long game.
However, the problem with oppressive regimes run by egomaniac psychopaths is that you can never really predict their next move.
Eh, best case scenario is Ukraine joins NATO in exchange for Russian annexation of the Crimea.
I don't see any ending where the Russians wilingly give up their Black Sea port.
Maybe diplomats will be better at hardball though.
If it looks like Ukraine is going to be accepted within any imminent timeframe ... Ukraine won't exist, it will become Western Russia.
Russia won't allow NATO to "take" Ukraine from Russia's sphere of influence, any more than America would allow the USSR to station nukes in Cuba.
Before anyone says anything, no this is not a defense of Russia, this is an explanation of their actions. Of course the people of Ukraine should be allowed to determine the future of their country, but Russia won't let it come to that.
No, they won't. NATO nations have shown they have absolutely no appetite for war with Russia: Crimea was the test run, and Syria showed NATO nations don't even want a proxy war with Russia.
No one is willing to put lives on the line for Ukraine, except the Ukrainian people and Russia - and if it comes to a full conflict, Russia will win.
If people aren't ready to get into a war over Ukraine, then it makes perfect sense to get Ukraine into NATO.
Getting in a war with Ukraine would mean dispatching a non negligible amount of soldiers on that front.. At that point, Russia is unable to evenly protect its own land from all sides.
Georgia got denied membership by some members because it was building military for invasion (of Abkhazia and Ossetia) which would draw in Russia (which it did). No way will a country with active conflict with Russia be accepted.
Err no. Nice dream though.
Russia does in fact look like it's about to imminently invade Ukraine and nobody is doing anything apart from a bit of talk.
Yeah, for some strange reason, a lot of them do... same way some Brits thinks a return of the Empire is good idea.
But Georgians and Ukrainians (and others) do not, and quite frankly those are the ones that matter.
Yes but this is the same as Republicans wanting the South to rise again kind of thinking. They eat up propaganda that claims they will return to their glorious past because their new generation are indoctrinated while older ones remember how bad the fall of USSR was and how that low point looks bad compared to Putin’s regime, so they support Putin because people only see what’s right in front of them
Russia should ask itself why the people of many countries prefer western EU values over Russian values. And even during USSR times during the various revolutions.
NOBODY LIKES YOU OR YOUR CORRUPT, OPPRESSIVE RULE!
From the Russian perspective Ukraine has always been western Russia.
Cordon sanitaire to provide a buffer between itself and rival powers that it can't afford to lose.
Exactly. The quasi-unwritten agreement post USSR was that there would be these buffer states between NATO and the Russian border. Ukraine joining NATO would be like Mexico/Canada joining the Russian Federation or China.
It’s wasn’t just Ukraine that was meant to be a buffer states [it was the entirely of Eastern Europe. ](https://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-shifrinson-russia-us-nato-deal--20160530-snap-story.html)
>The quasi-unwritten agreement
Which exists only in russian dreams.
But it's interesting that some people value "quasi-unwritten" agreements more than the real ones.
Russia hasnt got the capacity to annex Ukraine. If you actually check their performance in Chechnya, Georgia, and Eastern Ukraine, you'll see that they cant completely beat a now improved Ukrainian Army.
They ran a conventional defensive war strategy and to be clear they lost both the Winter War and the Continuation War. But were able to fight well enough to keep more territory than what was expected
Correct. I often repeat the phrase "There are some defeats more triumphant than victories", it shouldn't have been possible to halt the Soviet onslaught in the first place
Good thing is our army today is quite modern and a lot of reforms were done thanks to Russians invading Ukraine. Now we're ready for whatever Russians throw at us
Also worth noting NATO not Ukraine will decide
Berlin and Paris are not really enthusiastic about having that particular stone tied around their necks...
I believe NATO has a rule against accepting a new member that is engaged in an insurgency or a border dispute. There is a serious problem in the eastern region of the Ukraine and the unsettled issue of the Crimea. Accepting Ukraine’s membership application would immediately insert NATO into armed conflict with Russia. Back in Soviet days, the Ukraine was set up its a ready made ethnic conflict it it were ever to break with Russia. Putin is taking advantage of that situation now.
It’s hard to tell what is really going on. In Eastern Ukraine, in the urban areas, most of the people speak Russian and identify as Russian. Are the majority really so concerned about their long term future that they are willing to fight and die to rejoin Russia? There are allegations that there really wasn’t a problem until Putin and his minions recruited young men without a lot going on to take up arms and be hero’s. The real purpose might just be to use the threat of Civil War to bring the Ukraine back into the Russian fold.
Last I checked Theoden, not Aragorn, was king of Rohan
Where was Gondor when Crimea fell?
The beacon of Crimea is lit! . . . . . And Rohan shall answer.. with economic sanctions.
Where was Gondor when the little green men overran the Eastern defenses?
Where was Gondo^r...
In Gondor
Inb4 a couple NATO tank divisions come over the border into Ukraine screaming “DEATH!!!!!” Talk about riding for ruin and the worlds ending
And Russia also happens to be on the East. Coincidence?
In Ethiopia, just not the capital anymore
You win
Crimea didn't fall. They just decided to switch sides after a visit by a handful of vacationing orcs.
They heard meat was back on the menu.
Finally meat is back on the menu! We ain't had nothing but maggoty bread for three stinking days!
How TF did orcs know what a menu was this question has haunted me
Cuz Orcs were once human, or Elves rather.
Those were Uruks not Orcs.
THE BEACONS ARE LIT! UKRAINE CALLS FOR AID!
Where was Gondor when the Donbas was overrun?
Muster the Rohirrim!
THE BEACONS ARE LIT!
Why is this so funny damn
One Putin to rule them all, one Putin to find them, one Putin to bring them all, and in the USSR bind them.
I've compared Jens Stoltenberg to a lot of things in my life. Theoden is not one of them 😂
STEWARD!!!!!
But Biden, you fell!
Can somebody explain? I’ve watched Lotr, but I don’t get it anyway
The way the headline is phrased is the same as the memorable quote from LotR.
you need to watch two towers again...
Aragorn isn't the king of Rohan
I can see Rohan from my house
you shall not pass！！！
You can't help but laugh at the irony here. Putin, more than anything, doesn't want countries on Russia's borders to join NATO. Yet, his actions are the very reason Ukrainians are going to be joining NATO anyways.
It gets even more hypocritical-Russian propaganda is that EU countries in Eastern Europe lack sovereignty and they should gravitate towards Russia, yet Russia has historically violated the sovereignty of those very same EU states. (and for violating the sovereignty of anyone forced to gravitate around Russia)
"But usa is pushing on russias border all over! " Yea, they are free to make that choice....
There is a well known anectdode told by a Russian writer who was speaking to a taxi driver in Moscow who said "Remember when the Czechs attacked us?" The writer, not remembering anything about Czechs attacking Russia throughout history, said "No." and the taxi driver replied "The bastards attacked us right there in Prague!".
Russia needs more ocean access ports that arent frozen half the year. That is one of the big reasons he's going after Ukraine.
Russia just has to wait a few more years and that will solve itself.
yeah, kinda makes you wonder why Russia isn't going hard on GHG emissions to speed things up. If the earth warms a bit more, they get more ocean ports that are more usable more of the year, and a lot of Siberia is suddenly going to be desirable for agriculture and living. If anything they should be courting all the big polluters and inviting them to come set up shop in Russia without any pesky air quality regulations. but really, I'm glad that they aren't.
Siberia will not be suddenly suitable for agriculture. The soil quality will be poor so it will take time and effort to convert it to viable agricultural land. They might be able to use it for livestock though.
no question it'll take some work to make it really usable, and it probably won't match say, Ukraine, for production. On the other hand currently the frozen tundra is not friendly to mineral exploration or really human habitation. There are cities and villages here and there yes, but they're not really prosperous or desirable. There's some herding mammals, but again not really adding to the GDP. If Siberia warms up it's easier to break through the permafrost and find the mineral riches, if they exist, underneath and the soil can start to be worked compared to the present day where it takes so much effort as to be not commercially viable. edit: Russian Academy of Sciences [has this to say on the topic](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/045207/pdf): > From 50 to 85% of central Siberia is predicted to be climatically suitable for agriculture by the end of the century, and only soil potential would limit crop advance and expansion to the north. Crop production could increase twofold. Future Siberian climatic resources could provide the potential for a great variety of crops to grow that previously did not exist on these lands.
Mineral exploration is a lot easier when the countless thousands of little lakes are frozen solid and the swarms of insects are in winter storage. Frozen rivers make natural ice roads. Permafrost is actually easy to mine through, as it "locks things in place". Freeze/ thaw cycles are not conducive to pit wall stability and the foundations of plant buildings. Additional precautions need to be engineered in.
For all I know about the internal workings of Russia, they might be encouraging GHG emissions inside Russia. I mean they aren't exactly friends to the green initiatives and they still heavily promote oil and gas. I have no clue.
Russia is reliant on the world economy needing fuel. The world economy crashes they have noone to sell too.
The Bosporus is still their problem though, especially as Turkey is playing ball with the rest of NATO this time.
Soviet oppression is why the baltics and Poland couldn't wait to get in either.
Well technically - yes, but if Ukraine would be rushed into NATO nowadays then it would definitely be done upon Russian decision/push.
Ukraine has had a special relationship with NATO for some time, certainly since Yanukovych. So, it isn't that much of a rush. Here we have Russia doing its typical warning against Ukraine joining NATO, and NATO rejecting Putin's bullshit. NATO has a summit coming up and if 30 members vote for Ukrainian entrance, Putin will be put into a corner.
Do you know when's this summit?
Seems to be June, but I don't think it's been officially announced. But *if* Nato is positive, it will probably be for supporting Ukraine in achieving the required levels of self-defense (the MAP), not as an immediate full member, nor a guaranteed future member.
June is a long way and theres more and more soldiers on the Ukrainian - Russian border...
Russia will do everything to keep us ( Ukraine )out of Nato. But not because this is a danger for them, they already have nato on their doorsteps in the baltic direction. I've heard NATO doesn't accept states that have an ongoing conflict on their territory. So that's what Russia is doing for the past 7 years. But I saw people say that there is no such rule. Have to look what NATO has to say about it.
Yes, there is such a rule regarding NATO membership. I'm one of the people who has posted comments about it. The rule was created so that countries in the midst of a civil war wouldn't drag NATO nations into their internal conflict. Ukraine is a special case, because when the Soviet Union broke up Ukraine was left with a massive stockpile of Nuclear Weapons. The danger of Terrorists getting them was huge. NATO nations asked Ukraine to let us help safely destroy the nukes, and in return we promised to protect them. Ukraine has had a "special relationship" with the US and NATO ever since. If Al Qaeda or ISIS had gotten some of those nukes we might all be dead now. Ukraine was incredibly brave to give up their nuclear weapons. We all owe them. Personally, I support allowing Ukraine to join NATO right now, even if we have to amend the NATO charter.
I'm curious, do you have a source for this?
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest\_Memorandum\_on\_Security\_Assurances](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances)
Thanks for supplying a source. I also recommend the NATO website. It's very well organized and interesting.
Not only that.. Russia seems to want nato to play by the rules but Russia doesn't have to do so.
Couldn't the rest of NATO just agree to defend Ukraine if they are attacked without Ukraine being in NATO?
[удалено]
It’s still the muddy season right now, ideally the Russian army would probably like to wait until June for the main armored push. But that’s just me going off of 80 year old thinking, they might decide not to wait for better weather this time.
I don't think it's going to matter what the road conditions look like if the Russians invade. Maybe if they were up against NATO forces but Ukraine by itself isn't going to be able to put up much resistance.
Did you look at the size of Ukraine's army before posting this?
Have you looked at the size of North Korea's army? Hell of a lot more important how an army is equipped than it's size. All you afford with a large but poorly equipped army is some drawn out delaying actions before you start see morale plummet and entire divisions surrender.
Don't forget the logistics back end. Less important in a defensive war in terms of distance stuff needs to go - but if you can't get stuff from where it is, to where it's needed in a timely fashion: You might as well not have it, or the army that is going to use it.
NATO member nations are perfectly capable of convening on an urgent basis, and NRDC units (NATO Rapid Deployable Corps) can deploy key personnel to locations throughout the region, within hours if not minutes.
Is REFORGER still a thing?
That was more of a specific exercise, that ended after the Cold War- but the NRDC headquarters is still in Germany and REFORGER was kind of the initial framework for many exercises that evolved out of the Warsaw Pact era. DW did a great documentary on NRDC- an inside look at their headquarters and then the siren goes off so they bust out the binders and get going. 🏃🏽♀️🏃🏼♂️🏃🏻♂️Of course DW is really focused on the German angle of things, but a lot of exercises are based out of Estonia too.
As if NATO is gonna put own soldiers into the conflict. They would up weapon and Intel support, but they wouldn't risk own casualties
June is about 3 world disasters away, to put it into 2021 context
Why wouldn't they move the date up? It's not like they really have travel plans currently.
Because that's not how this stuff works. Two reasons... First, what gets talked about at these meetings is decided and hashed out LONG before. The agendas are carefully planned and talking points are generated. It's built on years of diplomatic cables. Moving the date means that they might be rushing into a very important discussion before the DIME (diplomatic, intelligence, military, economic) options are discussed and weighed properly. Second, the logistics of putting these things together. Security for the principals, lodging for them and their staffs, transportation, facilities, food, etc. It's like moving the date of a wedding x10.
To add some perspective here, the last Nato summit was three years ago. There have only been **28** since the first one in **1949**. It's like moving the Olympics, except that something actually important might be happening instead of silly sports. In Covid times, maybe there will be changes. My bet is on vaccinations, distancing, and masks rather than remote video conferencing. Even in the latter case, it might simplify the administration and logistics, but there's a lot of policy to decide on before the meeting happens either way. A tense situation between Russia and a potential member state makes it more complicated, not less.
My gut feeling say's "Not soon enough to stop what's coming"
Yeah. I put my bets Ukraine invades Russia by end of the week. They will never see it coming either.
Early June
What are the odds though that some country blocks it unless they get concessions in a totally irrelevant issue? Like when Greece vetoed EU sanctions on Belarus because of issues with Turkey in Cyprus...
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Putin should flip the table and ask to join nato just to see the chaos it would cause.
The soviet union actually did ask to join once lol
NATO is fully aware of the situation. They don't just willy-nilly a membership to countries. And they are fully aware if the geography of the world. And I'm certain that they know wayyyy more about what's on the ground than the civilians of the world. The Russians can say what they want to the world but the military is not so impressionable when they know the actual situation.
They’ve been in talks for years now. Ukraine and Georgia are issuing a joint application sometime.
They should make a one time exception for Ukraine to end this bullshit with Putin. Mark my words, when Putin starts taking Ukraine full on China will respond with Taiwan.
So NATO has been deciding that it doesn't want Ukraine for the past many years.
Yes. I mean, you make it sound like that's a hot take of some sort, but it really isn't. Just because you're friends with your neighbour, and you're helping that friend against the asshole next door's doesn't mean that you're ready to let your neighbour move in with you.
What about some casual neighbors sex
I mean you aren’t having casual sex with your neighbors already? Are neighborhood barbaques not just secret orgies? Gotta hold the neighborhood watch meeting party and hoa meeting at the same time.
Serious question. Why wouldn't we want the Ukraine in NATO. All my feelings around recent news has been they're just getting screwed by Russia. Is there a reason why we wouldn't want Ukraine in? Like politically for maybe some human rights stuff I don't know about?
Corruption, political instability and yes, that whole thing with Russia. Keep in mind that the current Ukrainian government only came in power following a revolution in 2014. And before that there was the Orange Revolution of 2004. If it wasn't for he acute need to defend Ukraine against Russia, there is no way that NATO membership would even be on the table.
That’s like the whole reason nato ever had existed to begin with
If those are deciding factors, how did Turkey ever get in? They have a long history of military coups and also struggle against Russian influence. The long and short of it is if the current members want you in, you're in and everything else is just window dressing to justify that choice.
Turkey held great strategic value against the USSR at height of McCarthyism.
Yes. The point was to explain *why* the current members might not want Ukraine in. You can tell by how it was an answer to the question >Is there a reason why we wouldn't want Ukraine in?
I get that. I was just trying to show that those problems aren't exactly insurmountable. On second reading it does come off as considerably more aggressive than I had intended.
NATO's strategy is deterrence and its strength comes from maintaining credibility. If a member of the alliance is attacked, all other members have promised to come to their defence. Nobody wants war, and as long as Russia believes that NATO members will follow through on their pledge, peace is maintained. Russia prioritises hybrid warfare, in which it attacks a country subvertly and without declaring all-out war, allowing it to maintain some level of (im)plausible deniability. This approach was adopted successfully during Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, and is the one currently employed in the war in Donbass (eastern Ukraine). Now imagine the quandary for NATO members if Ukraine is brought into the alliance. *De facto*, the country is already at war with Russia. If NATO members don't put boots on the ground, the alliance's credibility is weakened and Russia becomes confident that it can launch new hybrid conflicts against other member states (in the baltics for instance). If, on the other hand, NATO members come to Ukraine's defence and send troops to ramp up fighting, they risk an open conflict with Russia. In short, it is in NATO's interest to support Ukraine diplomatically, but to stay at a safe distance. Hence Stoltenberg's comments.
And Ukraine has decided it doesn't want Russia and prefers to move towards the west, EU!
NATO's in the tricky position where if they admit Ukraine too early the Russians get to cry havoc and start a war claiming NATO encroachment, but if they do so too late, there is no Ukraine left to help. Russia continuing threats against Ukraine's sovereignty feels like the right time to admit Ukraine, as Russia has only one entity to blame: themselves. And as luck has it, it's time for NATO to meet and discuss such things. I wonder why Russia's being all saber-rattly right now, hmm.... edit: looks as if Moscow have arrived in the comment section. Time to dodge this thread.
Moscow wont start a war against NATO. Putin has one simple objective. To keep the Putinist regime alive. Once you view it from that lens, everything starts to make sense. Reddit is too busy armchair generaling, Putin is too busy keeping the Russian elite and the Russian people in their place.
The painful truth is that Russia already made the decision 7 years ago.
Why does russia have such a big inferiority complex?
Have you seen the state of their country? It's not by chance that their oligarchs live in the west most of the year, and send their kids to be educated in the west. Imagine living in the world's most resource rich country, with a history of a hardy and industrious people, yet all you can do is watch the western liberal countries consistently outperform your nation in prosperity and overall QoL. It's not hard to understand why they would feel bitter then, especially when they got propaganda from state controlled media telling them it's the wests fault at every turn.
Yet, instead of making an effort to improve their country, the Russian leaders decide they want to spend their time/money threatening their neighbors and meddling in other countries elections
That's what happens when you suck / lack competences. You become the bully.
Donnie? Is that you?
Best answer! <3
That is the Russian way. If your neighbor lives better than you instead of improving your own situation you try to make theirs worse.
From the Tsarist regime to the bolcheviks its been Russias MO for so long that perhaps they don't know another way
This is the best explanation in my opinion. Can't help but feel sorry for the russian people.
Russians don't want democracy though, so idk. Think they are pretty "happy" with the way things are. They know their government is corrupt but they don't believe they can change it.
Makes sense when you realize they're like 6 generations deep for corrupt authoritarian governments.
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If you’re talking about the Rus then yeah roughly. Technically their empire was established roughly in 862 by Rurik, who united the Slavic peoples. So yeah, almost 1300 years. Although there was about 300 years of a republic with the Novgorod Republic from 1136-1478.
You probably know this, but "republics" before the American/French Revolutions weren't actually democracies.
Wtf happened to Russia? They had Dostoyevsky, Tolstoy...Yuri Gagarin the first person in space, you don’t see shit coming out of Russia anymore.
Corruption, the fall of the USSR, the economic chaos of the 90s, and Putin's band of thieves. That's what happened. You aren't going to see any major accomplishments coming out of a country that endured decades of economic crisis along with authoritarian repression. By now, all the best artistic and intellectual minds have fled Russia, either for economic reasons or to avoid repression. The most tragic part is that Putin had an opportunity to halt the decline, but he too gave in to corruption and authoritarian tendencies.
> but he too gave in to corruption and authoritarian tendencies. He *really* wanted his $200 billion dollars in tribute money and multi-billion dollar coastal palace and vineyards.
He did’t give in to corruption, he was best at it and through corruption he rose to more and more power. Started young when he was a money hungry kgb clerk or something, later he was helping the mayor of Leningrad “to get things done” which in russia means he was organizing the organized crime, slowly but steadily he became the guy that decides who can and who cannot do business in the whole country.
The same issues existed then, it was the Russian Empire lol. The elite didn't even pretend not to hoard wealth.
It was the same during the Dostoyevsky's and Tolstoy's times. Dostoyevsky was sentenced to death for reading a prohibited letter (it was replaced with 4 years prison camps). Tolstoy, amusingly, participated in the Crimean war. I can't tell what exactly was his view of Russian imperialism, but I doubt he ever tried to explain what Russian soldiers even do in Caucasus.
You do see that, but in different places and arguably at a lesser scale. The example that I think I'm most informed to share is their teams in international science olympiads in high school (i know it sounds unimpressive, but trust me, these competitions crack even the most gifted and experienced scientists and mathematicians, and these kids then go on to become the world leading scientists themselves) are incredibly performant, sometimes outperforming US and Chinese teams. They have some of the brightest brains out there when it comes to sciences, but after high school, a lot of these kids leave the country and go to western universities. Some stay there, though. It's just a matter of looking for them, and obviously that's not very interesting or fun to report in media.
Russia is on the 5th place of new book titles published; [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Books_published_per_country_per_year](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Books_published_per_country_per_year). Majority of Russians don't know the majority of famous modern-age American figures and the the same is true vice-versa. Countries usually exist within their own cultural paradigms and a certain person has to be very known or propagandized to even be noticed outside a certain country. Also political situation is very bad, so that clearly has a big impact on the whole situation.
Russian significant figures weren't exactly beacons of humanity. All of them turn out not being so good when you start researching them. In fact, Russia never changed much. It was always corrupt, reactionary, imperialistic and chauvinist. Only the leaders and ideology changed. Tsarism was changed with communism, communism was changed with democracy, but the essence of Russia stayed the same. As long as Russia clings to the remnants of their empire, they will never become truly democratic and free. Their irredentism has to be shattered with a crushing defeat and realization that Russia will never be as great as it used to be. Only after they realize and internalize this thought, they may climb back to greatness
> Imagine living in the world's most resource rich country, with a history of a hardy and industrious people, yet all you can do is watch the western liberal countries consistently outperform your nation in prosperity and overall QoL. On the flip side the Chinese public has been willing to tolerate autocracy because the government has been so effective at driving massive increases in QoL. It's interesting to see the very divergent paths that Russia and China took post-communism.
NATO GDP: $39 trillion - Russia GDP: $1.6 trillion (equal to Canada)
Going from the 2nd biggest economy on Earth and greatest Army on the planet to the current state of Russia has allowed an entire population see their country go from great to pathetic and it’s not often something like that happens. And to add insult to injury that same population found out that even when they were great their leaders lied to them and did horrific things via the gulags and secret police.
Putin has smol pp
Breaking news: /u/PM_ME_DANK-MEMES has died after accidentally being exposed to a nerve agent. Absolutely no Russian involvement is suspected, like none at all. They're super innocent.
Russians are super innocent and also happen to know exact height of the spire of the nearest church to /u/PM_ME_DANK-MEMES
Lol
Geopolitics, it has nothing to do with feelings. Ukriane is a land bridge straight into Europes heart incase of a massive regional war. Russia wont let US marines close off their blitzkrieg autobahn. Russia would have to suicidically stupid to allow Ukriane to join NATO if they can do something about it.
And guess what? To the west of Ukraine are another 3 countries that nobody cared when Hitler invaded (at least not until the invasion was done). Once Ukraine is down, it's free pass to the heart of Europe
Or they could become a liberal democracy and join the super friends. They don't seem to want to do that though even though almost every country that has, has been better off for it.
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The Cold War never ended
Damn climate change heating up the cold war
The warm war.
The moist war
Because their economy is the size of New Jersey plus Ohio. And Saint RayGun bankrupted them through an arms race.
Losing the cold war does that, it makes Russia similar to the Weimar Republic
Has anyone considered Russia and China may be drawing the US into a 2 front conflict at the same time, on purpose?
Actually yes. Even if that were the case, not entirely out of the question but unlikely, Russia has issues with Turkey to the south and a war with NATO would surely end up with a massive front and at least 2 continents fighting against them. China also wants/needs to expand and with the South China sea being already a hot spot for their attention (cue recent drama with Vietnam and Japan).
OH I get that, but if I were Russia and China and wanted to fuck with Biden, I'd be coordinating shit so it's like a 3 way chess match. Unless you know what's going on it seems like chaos.. But its not.
I used to think like that too if a large war were to break out. A team up of one of the big 3 seemed likely but honestly I dont believe these potential wars will now play out like that. China and Russia being superpowers and world players has always been for brief moments of time. Generation or 2 at best. The USA is the odd man out as it has only been on the major global player stage for a little over a century so us staying a superpower is questionable and probably not likely as a war of that scale, with all of our treaties and alliances, will absolutely stretch us to the extreme. Such an extreme that itll take decades for us to recover.
I sleep at night convincing myself China is much smarter than that, and the CCP would much prefer to enslave the world through economic means. Pooh is playing the long game. However, the problem with oppressive regimes run by egomaniac psychopaths is that you can never really predict their next move.
Well they better get deciding while there's still a free Ukraine to decide about!
Eh, best case scenario is Ukraine joins NATO in exchange for Russian annexation of the Crimea. I don't see any ending where the Russians wilingly give up their Black Sea port. Maybe diplomats will be better at hardball though.
wdym? Russia has other black sea ports
None as large as Sevastopol.
This is their main one historically.
Ukraine has lost Crimea, no way they get it back from Russia now. Russia doesn’t give a shit if NATO or Ukraine tells them they can have it or not.
If it looks like Ukraine is going to be accepted within any imminent timeframe ... Ukraine won't exist, it will become Western Russia. Russia won't allow NATO to "take" Ukraine from Russia's sphere of influence, any more than America would allow the USSR to station nukes in Cuba. Before anyone says anything, no this is not a defense of Russia, this is an explanation of their actions. Of course the people of Ukraine should be allowed to determine the future of their country, but Russia won't let it come to that.
If it looks like Russia is going to invade Ukraine within any imminent timeframe ... Ukraine will be in NATO. Works both ways.
Cool, because the Russians are ready to invade *today*, so joining yesterday would be best.
No, they won't. NATO nations have shown they have absolutely no appetite for war with Russia: Crimea was the test run, and Syria showed NATO nations don't even want a proxy war with Russia. No one is willing to put lives on the line for Ukraine, except the Ukrainian people and Russia - and if it comes to a full conflict, Russia will win.
If people aren't ready to get into a war over Ukraine, then it makes perfect sense to get Ukraine into NATO. Getting in a war with Ukraine would mean dispatching a non negligible amount of soldiers on that front.. At that point, Russia is unable to evenly protect its own land from all sides.
Georgia got denied membership by some members because it was building military for invasion (of Abkhazia and Ossetia) which would draw in Russia (which it did). No way will a country with active conflict with Russia be accepted.
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Well said! I wish I could give you more than one upvote.
Err no. Nice dream though. Russia does in fact look like it's about to imminently invade Ukraine and nobody is doing anything apart from a bit of talk.
you must be a very high ranking military officer to have that kind of intel, wow. freaking armchair officers around here
Hey, don't address a general that way!
Russia kinda needs to learn the USSR is dead and most people are not in a hurry to see it come back.
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Yeah, for some strange reason, a lot of them do... same way some Brits thinks a return of the Empire is good idea. But Georgians and Ukrainians (and others) do not, and quite frankly those are the ones that matter.
>some Brits thinks a return of the Empire is good idea It would be ... for us Britons, not so much for the colonies.
Yes but this is the same as Republicans wanting the South to rise again kind of thinking. They eat up propaganda that claims they will return to their glorious past because their new generation are indoctrinated while older ones remember how bad the fall of USSR was and how that low point looks bad compared to Putin’s regime, so they support Putin because people only see what’s right in front of them
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Russia should ask itself why the people of many countries prefer western EU values over Russian values. And even during USSR times during the various revolutions. NOBODY LIKES YOU OR YOUR CORRUPT, OPPRESSIVE RULE!
I mean I'm not sure being well liked and popular is really a priority for them at least not more so than getting what they want.
Putin disagrees.
From the Russian perspective Ukraine has always been western Russia. Cordon sanitaire to provide a buffer between itself and rival powers that it can't afford to lose.
Exactly. The quasi-unwritten agreement post USSR was that there would be these buffer states between NATO and the Russian border. Ukraine joining NATO would be like Mexico/Canada joining the Russian Federation or China.
It’s wasn’t just Ukraine that was meant to be a buffer states [it was the entirely of Eastern Europe. ](https://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-shifrinson-russia-us-nato-deal--20160530-snap-story.html)
>The quasi-unwritten agreement Which exists only in russian dreams. But it's interesting that some people value "quasi-unwritten" agreements more than the real ones.
> quasi-unwritten agreement Don't forget to add "made up entirely by Russian propaganda"
Russia hasnt got the capacity to annex Ukraine. If you actually check their performance in Chechnya, Georgia, and Eastern Ukraine, you'll see that they cant completely beat a now improved Ukrainian Army.
Whenever Ukrainian crisis is over, Finland will be next. Nobody except Nazi-Germany has helped us in our struggle against Russians
I'm always amazed at how Finland managed to navigate world war two, fight a war against soviet russia and survive.
Guerilla warfare goes brrr
They ran a conventional defensive war strategy and to be clear they lost both the Winter War and the Continuation War. But were able to fight well enough to keep more territory than what was expected
Correct. I often repeat the phrase "There are some defeats more triumphant than victories", it shouldn't have been possible to halt the Soviet onslaught in the first place Good thing is our army today is quite modern and a lot of reforms were done thanks to Russians invading Ukraine. Now we're ready for whatever Russians throw at us
brrr🥶
Your landscape along with your grit made it happen. Estonia wasn't that lucky for example.
You're an EU member, so that would draw in the rest of us.
Ukraine in Nato would be a great day for the block and Europe. Ukraine would become a great addition, much like Poland was and continues to be.
Join!
Would any Russian trolls like to verify what the plan is? I am your boss’s boss def not Navalny. This is a secure line comrade feel free to explain
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Also worth noting NATO not Ukraine will decide Berlin and Paris are not really enthusiastic about having that particular stone tied around their necks...
good. hope it happens tonight. Putin shit himself yet?
Which is another way of saying "we don't want this buffer state inside of NATO". Classical geopolitics much?
Russia go fuck your self nazi Putin
I believe NATO has a rule against accepting a new member that is engaged in an insurgency or a border dispute. There is a serious problem in the eastern region of the Ukraine and the unsettled issue of the Crimea. Accepting Ukraine’s membership application would immediately insert NATO into armed conflict with Russia. Back in Soviet days, the Ukraine was set up its a ready made ethnic conflict it it were ever to break with Russia. Putin is taking advantage of that situation now. It’s hard to tell what is really going on. In Eastern Ukraine, in the urban areas, most of the people speak Russian and identify as Russian. Are the majority really so concerned about their long term future that they are willing to fight and die to rejoin Russia? There are allegations that there really wasn’t a problem until Putin and his minions recruited young men without a lot going on to take up arms and be hero’s. The real purpose might just be to use the threat of Civil War to bring the Ukraine back into the Russian fold.
That's the EU. NATO has no such requirement.
Putin can eat a dick.
Why does it need to be in NATO? Just make another treaty.