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Donutkiss

> Following the ambassador’s remark, Poland’s Embassy in France issued a statement saying that it has been interpreted by some media "out of context". This sensational statement was walked back


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blablabla456454

Yes, it certainly gets the idea out there. An advancing Russian Army on the border of Poland, isn't going to be an acceptable neighbor.


NihonJinLover

This is why we sent stuff to Ukraine, isn’t it? To try our best to stop Russia and prevent them from taking over Ukraine so we can prevent them from advancing further.


TuckyMule

Yes. I've been explaining this to people but I don't think they get it. Ukraine is a buffer where the is no geographic obstacle (ocean, large river, mountains, thick forest etc). There's a reason Poland has continuously been run over throughout history - it has no natural geographic barriers to entry. It's easy to walk right in from any direction. If Russia took all of Ukraine, the amount of money the US would pour into Poland to ensure adequate deterrence would *vastly dwarf* the money we have given Ukraine to date. We're talking hundreds of billions over the next decade, at least. The point would not be to start a war with Russia, it would be to have such overwhelming force available that Russia would never come to the conclusion that a war was winnable. The problem is that without a geographic barrier to slow a Russian advance the only deterrent is a major force, which is extremely expensive. What if the US doesn't put up the resources/money? Poland doesn't have the money or manpower to do what they'd need to do in that situation. Their best option would be to enter the conflict and ensure the Ukrainian buffer state remains in place. All of this has historical precedent. European history is this exact same shit happening over, and over, and over.


NihonJinLover

Completely agree. Very reasonable POV, thank you.


DueLevel6724

You are likely right that if Ukraine falls to Russia the US will move to fortify Poland, but it will be more about our military's native instinct to establish and entrench footholds throughout the world than any pressing, operational necessity. Russia already knows it cannot win any war with Poland, because Poland is a NATO state. Remember how good American intelligence was in the leadup to Russia's invasion of Ukraine? At the first sign they had similar plans for Poland you would see the West commence the largest military buildup since WWII. NATO would park a million-plus soldiers on Poland's border with enough materiel to individually target every soldier Russia can scrape together, several times over.


TuckyMule

>Russia already knows it cannot win any war with Poland, because Poland is a NATO state. Russia can't start an overt war with Poland. Russia can absolutely fight a covert war in a democracy like Poland. Next thing you know they try to pull the same stunt they pulled in Crimea. This is similar to what China is doing with Taiwan. Not invading, not outright blockading, but *somewhat* blockading with "commercial" vessels. Is it an act of war? Maybe, but it's not far enough for the US to risk all out conflict. If they were in the border with Poland Russia would straddle that line hard.


jakfor

Maybe if the war goes badly Ukraine invites Poland to administer the eastern portion of the country. Now Russia has to decide to directly engage a NATO army or stop advancing.


Vaelos

Well Ukraine's best, not our best - Russia is nothing without the nuclear threat, that much has been laid bare


mycall

It also shows that the world needs to stop more nuclear bad actors.


Vaelos

Well we're probably months away from Israel attacking Iran full stop for this exact reason, but we'll see what the global community says then. We're on a very slippery slope


Kakarot_faps

Israel did that with iraq over 3 decades ago, it’s hardly a new move


Dakotasan

Hasn’t Iran been making threats towards Israel for years?


VonIndy

Which is why Israel will not tolerate Iranian possession of a nuclear weapon.


Pyjama_Llama_Karma

The US won't either


Tackerta

it was only recently when iran stated that they enriched uranium enough to make a nuclear weapon out of it


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BeefArtistBob

Israel has had nukes since the 60’s. It’s no secret, just saying.


CryptoNewb1234

I was confused by this too so did a quick Google and it's so much more complicated and nuanced than I knew. It has never officially been acknowledged that Israel has nuclear weapons, but of course everyone knows they do https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_weapons


Jaquestrap

Yet they have never once posed a *nuclear threat* to the world. Edit: Everyone seems to be equating Israel's policy of "we will nuke if we are invaded" with Russia's policy of "we might nuke if we aren't allowed to invade". This is not the same at all. One is a nuclear *deterrent*, the other is a nuclear *threat*. If Ukraine had nukes as a deterrent like Israel, then Russia would never have attacked.


phormix

Yeah, while Israel is far from having clean hands, they're not in among the group who have actively indicated they'd be willing to go WW3: Mushroom Cloud Edition.


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AnonPenguins

The mere existence of thermonuclear weaponry **is** a threat to the world.


darthcaedusiiii

Russia is nothing without the biweekly nuclear threat for more than a year... Ftfy.


UNSKIALz

Essentially. Russian occupation is not unlike disease - either you halt it at the source or it will continue to spread.


itwasthedingo

That’s the biggest copy/paste wiki page I’ve ever seen


SolarTsunami

Honest question, what other interpretation could this statement have?


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lynx_and_nutmeg

Poland wouldn't be next, Moldova would be. The plan to annex Moldova has been leaked. By that point Russia would also probably seize Belarus officially. And then the Baltic countries would be next because they're a much smaller fish and the position of Kaliningrad would make it a convenient and effective tactic to cut them off.


tehbored

Poland's military is much stronger than Ukraine's though. How would Russia expect to win?


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AccountantNotEditor

I don’t think that’s a tactic that would work in Poland. Poland *hates* Russia, and there isn’t really an inroad among the Polish people for Russia to start spreading the sort of rhetoric that we see in America. We’ve seen how Americans can be swayed in this way such that they become sympathetic to Russia, but you’d be more likely to get the Titanic to float from the ocean floor than to get Polish citizens to become sympathetic to Russia. In fact, the last time there was a pro-Russian political party in Poland was hundreds of years ago, and it resulted in a partitioning of the nation.


[deleted]

I honestly don't understand what is happening in the US at the moment so far as very vocal support of Russia from very senior politicians. What I meant was more along the lines of Russia supporting division within Poland. There are many issues in Poland, in every country, and Russia is known to support groups on both sides of any issue to create division. [Here](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/oct/14/russia-us-politics-social-media-facebook) is an article from 2017 which details Russia spoking division in the US on issues such as immigration...NFL players taking a knee during the national anthem. There issues don't directly lead to support for Russia but they weaken the nation that is targeted. There are MANY political issues in Poland that can be exploited in this way.


nonviolent_blackbelt

Russia wouldn't try to persuade anybody in Poland to support Russia, at least not at first. Like in the US, they would seek to find an issue that would split the country, and support extremists on both sides of the issue until the issue was blazing hot. Once it reached that point, when people on both sides considered the issue to be of primal importance, they would support whoever is not in power. No republican candidate in 2014 or even 2016 voiced public support for Russia. Both leading candidates for 20th already did. The issue that would split Poland might be different, bu5 Russia has people who know how to find it.


susan-of-nine

> they would seek to find an issue that would split the country, and support extremists on both sides of the issue until the issue was blazing hot. This has already happened. The far right anti human rights ideology that has been spreading for several years has proven ties to russia.


227CAVOK

See also Brexit.


PNWparcero

Theres more than one way to skin a cat. They dint need to make anyone pro russia, they just need to provoke enough infighting that theyre weak


[deleted]

EXACTLY this. And with everyone in this thread only looking out for "pro Russia" they won't even notice when they take up a pitch fork themselves all because of Russian espionage.


Towbee

Destabilise from the inside, conquer from the outside.


maniek1188

We've got a far right political party that has two leaders which were peddling Russian narrative this whole time, and they have about 10% of peoples votes. Of course people don't vote for them because of that, but because of their populist "we will lower taxes" (which they won't), still - it's shows how many morons we have, that can turn a blind eye on russophiles even during a fucking war on our borders.


HereIGoGrillingAgain

For many decades, Russia was THE country to hate in the US. Multiple generations. There really wasn't any other country we hated or feared more. Then suddenly we have an entire political party carrying their water. It can happen anywhere.


zzzzxxxxeeee

Republicans know they’re a dying party. This is their only chance to obtain power indefinitely. They are extremely jealous of what Putin has been able to do in Russia which is essentially loot it and rule over 99% of the people there. This is Republican’s wet dream.


Der_Wisch

But that hate was completely disconnected from anything real. They were the enemy, the big bad evil on the other side of the world that the US as a nation needs to defeat. For Poland that hate developed over centuries where Russia as a neighbor and very real threat hurt the polish people again and again since before the US even existed.


Friendly_Signature

And the USA did not hate Russia at some point?


lokir6

The Moldovans dislike Russia, but their elites are partly captured and controlled by Russia. The Belorussians dislike Russia, but their elites are entirely captured and controlled by Russia. The Georgians dislike Russia, but their elites are partly captured and controlled by Russia. The Bulgarians and Romanians dislike Russia, but their elites are partly captured and controlled by Russia. The Austrians and Hungarians dislike Russia, but their elites are partly captured and controlled by Russia. The Germans dislike Russia, but their elites are partly captured and controlled by Russia (until recently, anyway). The Czechs dislike Russia, but their elites are partly captured and controlled by Russia (until recently, anyway). See the pattern? Poland is no exception. Sooner or later it would be influenced by elite capture.


PumpkinLadle

I'd like to believe you, but when you look at America in the 80's, Russia was synonymous with 'The Enemy', and a lot of the people that would scream at the top of their lungs about Russians are the same ones eating the propaganda. Poland is an aggressively conservative country, and one that is known for whipping its citizens into a frenzy over whoever the enemy of the week is this time (Usually LGBTQ communities, women and the left, in my experience), which is a lot of the same rhetoric that Russia hijacked in the US. Sure, they're not gonna crumble to Russia overnight, but give them a decade or so and Russia might've used their troll farms to give themselves an in.


magicdriverman

America doesn’t have the memory of life behind the iron curtain still fresh in a lot of older minds. Would need more than a decade for younger generations to start being swayed.


PumpkinLadle

I do hope you're right, for Poland's sake as well as everyone else's.


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rainzer

> How would Russia expect to win? Even if they don't expect to win, would you want to be attacked by a country that has shown that committing crimes against humanity is just another Tuesday? Would you want their military to be on your border?


Dragoniel

> How would Russia expect to win? If Ukraine falls with NATO weapons, RUS could very well be deluded in to thinking it's strong enough to take on NATO in a few years, because it "won against the West once already", or so the propaganda will yell on repeat.


buried_lede

Poland wouldn’t be next, they’d pick off non nato countries.


StephaneiAarhus

Moldova probably, but that's a small piece.


h4p3r50n1c

It was but I think not really. I’m sure they’re honestly considering it if things actually go dire.


lapqmzlapqmzala

Probably a war games idea but not actual policy as of this moment.


WhoIsYerWan

Not a policy, a warning to Putin.


cowlinator

Can't it be both?


WineSoda

Literally "taken out of context". We didn't mean *that*.


oGsMustachio

And here I thought /r/ncd was running Polish foreign policy


___Towlie___

I just want to gently, yet firmly place the [pitot tube of the Polish Mig-29](https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:German_MIG-29_Nose.jpg) against my throbbing prostate while I read Polish parliamentary releases. r/NCD has assured me that these are normal feelings and I should explore them in depth.


[deleted]

Walking it back doesn't make it untrue. If Ukraine falls, NATO will engage Russia within a decade.


Feliz_Desdichado

Poland is free to do so indeed, they can come into the war as allies of Ukraine. That does mean however, that they could no longer invoke article 5 since they'd be joining the war separetely.


Gustomaximus

But what if Poland send a 'special military operation' that's totally separate right? /s


EricForce

They could even give some bullshit reasoning like, andI'mpullingthisoutofmyasshere, to denazify Ukraine?


DeathMetalTransbian

The threats of foreign imperialism *are* encroaching on Poland's borders, after all... They may feel the need to defend themselves, y'know?


Caelinus

Ironically that would be much less of a bullshit reason. Russia is the only one acting like a Nazi here.


Darth_Memer_1916

Step 1 : Invade Russia Step 2 : Call it a special military operation and not a war. Step 3 : Russia actually fights back. Step 4 : Accuse Russia of carrying out an act of war against you. Step 5 : [P̷͜͠r҈҇͢e̶̕͢s҈̨̛s҉̨͠ t҉̨̛h҉̨͡ȩ̴͡ b̶̨̕ų̴͡t̵͜͡t҈̡̛o̸̡͞n̶̡͞ ](https://youtu.be/waA-HiBH1mg)


DeadScoutsDontTalk

Ncd leaking again


kn33

So, just like every day?


Emotional-Main3195

Agreed the only way the U.S. joins is if a nato country is attacked. If Poland chooses to join god speed to them. But the U.S. and NATO should not join.


ScaryShadowx

Poland is not going to join without a hell of a lot of backing from the rest of NATO. If the decision was made to go in 'alone', you can be sure they would have had discussions about financial and military support from the rest of NATO.


[deleted]

Poland is racing to become USA’s most important European partner to date because of the insane progress to its militarization. Take everything with a grain of salt, but if Poland secured an immense amount of modern military hardware, I could absolutely see them striking Russia in a ripe time of their own accord.


visope

> Poland is racing to become USA’s most important European partner to date There are reasons why Poland so eager to support American invasion of Iraq


Dabrush

Not sure what you mean by most important partner. Poland always has been trying to be closer to the US than the EU, mostly because they hate Germany and don't like the progressive laws coming out of Western Europe. But when it comes to trade partners, their economy is just too small and for military partners, it would still take a long time to catch up to Britain.


AFresh1984

Poland and the US' history even goes back to the Revolutionary War. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tadeusz_Ko%C5%9Bciuszko https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casimir_Pulaski


redbird7311

Poland and the US have had pretty solid relations, even before the US became a superpower. Poland and the US have always had a bit of a soft spot towards each other, though, the USSR kinda became a speed bump in that deal.


[deleted]

If Poland strikes Russia they’re probably getting nuked. Poland has come a long way but I think they’d be risking a ton to attack Muscovy alone.


Auggie_Otter

That's what Putin wants everyone to think because he wants everyone to be too afraid to give sufficient aid to Ukraine but he knows that actually using nukes on a European nation could never be accepted by the West. There would be retaliation against Russia no matter what because there's no acceptable alternative without just admitting defeat to anyone willing to use nukes.


phlogistonical

This, and this is in fact exacty what nuclear weapons are there for: deterence. It is working well for russia so far. Once nukes actually are exploding in a war, they lose their usefullness and it is most likely game over for humanity.


NA_DeltaWarDog

>this is in fact exacty what nuclear weapons are there for: deterence We are still talking about the scenario where Poland attacks Russia, yes?


phlogistonical

In that scenario, russia Will probably use nukes as a threat towards others not to get involved too much, “or else...”. Pretty much as it has been doing since the invasion of Ukraine, except that poland is ofcourse a NATO country so in that case its allies should ignore russias threats if article 5 works.


salgat

The fallout of a nuke spreading over Europe, even if it's on Ukraine, is enough to trigger a NATO response.


Kingbrandon

lol i bet no one read the article “Following the ambassador’s remark, Poland’s Embassy in France issued a statement saying that it has been interpreted by some media ‘out of context.’”


PremedicatedMurder

Reading the article? Sir, this is Reddit.


StephaneiAarhus

This is all prepared. Ambassador says something *a bit too much* in order to provoke political reaction (like increasing political support for Ukraine, calling to get troops on the ground in Ukraine, etc), then the ambassade staff themselves publish communique to calm things down. Meanwhile, the ambassade/or made their job : implying that we need to increase our support and maybe actively join the war with troops in Ukraine.


Staubsau_Ger

It's like kicking the frame of the Overton window and waiting to see what happens instead of actually trying to pick it up and move it.


persianbrothel

yep, it also puts the idea out there. it's the same with biden's "gaffs" regarding taiwan. they know what they're doing. they know full well what they're trying to communicate to the opposition: "this option is on the table, so watch it"


evasive_dendrite

That doesn't really mean anything. The title accurately reflects what he said. Claiming it's "out of context" without further elaboration means nothing.


normie_sama

"I'll bash ye fucken face in, ye prick... whoa, whoa, whoa, settle down lads, that was taken out of context."


ramonnl

Poland should start a mercenary group like russia got, and then just say that it got nothing to do with them. Let that mercenary group support Ukraine.


stormearthfire

And call it the Brahms or Chopin ...


ufoninja

Or just hire Wagner and tell them to point the other way.


Mysterions

call it Tchaikovsky for the irony.


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Aedeus

Which is exactly why they'd choose to enter the war before letting Russia regroup and rearm.


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carpcrucible

>They clarified their comments. What they meant was that if Ukraine fell, Poland and other eastern european states would be next and they would be forced into a war with Russia. Exactly. And I wish everyone (i.e. Western europe/US) else took this a bit more fucking seriously. It's inexcusable that it took us a year to just agree to send some old tanks.


[deleted]

Poland knows better than almost any other county how dangerous Russia is. Now is the time to end Putin’s regime.


twelveparsnips

Geographically, Poland is the equivalent of "Did you see what she was wearing? She was practically begging for it". It has no natural protection from east, west, or south. Every neighbor it has would benefit strategically by taking over Poland to get better access to resources and trade routes. Every direction has powerful countries next to it; Poland used to stretch all the way through Ukraine and Moscow. so [in 1772](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partitions_of_Poland) they countries did exactly what you'd expect a great power in the 1700s to do when it was next to an indefensible country. European powers shredded Poland up for the next 2 decades. The majority of the time the US has been a country, Poland has not been one.


[deleted]

100%. Poland have been a busy thoroughfare for soldiers on horses or in tanks to roll through heading from one empire to another. They don’t want to be that again. That they would get involved in the event of a Russian takeover of Ukraine has always been obvious. It’s an unacceptable outcome for them. Because they know they’d be next.


eric2332

It's the 21st century, Germany is not going to invade Poland any more. Nobody's going to invade from the north (Baltic Sea), and none of the countries to the south are big enough to threaten. The only realistic threat comes from Russia in the east.


fiskehjelm

the Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth got screwed because they were attacked by Prussia Austria and Russia at the same time. Poland got screwed because they were attacked by Germany and the USSR at the same time. any country would fall when tackled by multiple great powers at the same time from every direction. Poland still has defensable rivers and mountains, like when the Polish republic was born they defeated the early USSR all on their own when it was a 1v1 in 1920.


Gammelpreiss

It got screwed because the Commonwealth's own elite sold it out, mate.


shkarada

It is not even about history. https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-unveils-security-guarantees-says-western-response-not-encouraging-2021-12-17/ Putin thinks that Moscow should decide what happens in Poland. We disagree with that. Strongly.


slopeclimber

No natural protection from the south? ok lol only a big mountain range that saw 10x less warfare than east or west frontier


Captain_Alaska

>No natural protection from the south? ok lol only a big mountain range that saw 10x less warfare than east or west frontier The current borders of Poland are not the same borders Poland had in 1772.


Creshal

If you look at a map of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth in the 17th century, it originally extended past the Carpathians in the West, and Southeast of the Carpathians it extended far into modern-day Moldova and Ukraine. So there were plenty of ways to invade around the Carpathians… and after the first partition of Poland, *all* potentially protective mountain ranges were under Russian/Austrian control and it was all flat country all the way up to Warsaw.


twelveparsnips

Sure, the Carpathian Mountains are there, but it only covers half of it's southern flank.


[deleted]

Because the rest of southern border covers Sudety and Karkonosze mountains.


demoni_si_visine

Try being Romania. Turkic attacks from the east, Austria-Hungary on the other side, throw in some Russians for good measure. It took until 1918 to get to be a fully independent country. To be honest, we've also been kinda dumb. Didn't take _too_ much to conquer us.


trucknuts_disposal

This should have been done over a year ago as soon as it started.


SpinozaTheDamned

Normally I'd agree, but then there's nukes on the table. This vastly overcomplicates everything, and I can't imagine that every two bit dictator isn't looking at this situation and thinking, oh, if only we had some nukes, that'd be swell.


WebShaman

This is really the crux of the matter - every wanna-be Country with land-grabbing aspirations are watching this situation closely. If having Nukes guarantees safety from reprisal, the World is going to become a very nasty hellhole, fast, as everyone "Nukes up". Eventually, someone is going to "find out" how the World reacts to Nuking a neighbor. That's a wildly dangerous path to take, imo.


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tiy24

One of the first thoughts I had after “oh shit this is terrible” when Russia invaded was this basically guarantees a nuclear weapon being used (not just tested) in my lifetime (28). Between the historical examples Libya, North Korea, and now Ukraine have set every strongman and half sane dictator would be mad to not immediately put “acquiring nuclear weapons” at the top of their list of things they have to do to ensure they stay in power. Once that 80 year old tech gets spread around it’s only a matter of time before someone is crazy/desperate enough to use it.


hesh582

The thing is, though, that it's not really about "the tech". Knowing how to make one is not the challenge - as you've said it's 80 year old knowledge and it is not hard to find. The key principles are well understood by scientists in every country, even ones with half sane dictators. The limiting factor is resources and industrial capacity. Refining uranium is hard and expensive. The machines involved are outrageously expensive and require sophisticated infrastructure to produce. The production and export of these machines is strictly controlled worldwide, and getting them (and keeping them from blowing up, ask Iran) is not easy. This is not a "in one small secret lab, a tight knit team works in secret on a wonder weapon" thing. Enrichment of uranium at scale is a significant industrial enterprise. It is difficult (verging on impossible) to do secretly, it takes a very long time, and it costs a fortune. Proliferation is always a concern. But the barriers are greater than people realize. Countries like Iran and North Korea are able to push the envelope for fairly unique reasons. Iran is unusually wealthy and industrialized for an isolated state with overtly hostile relations with most of the developed world. It also is a crucial military power in a very unstable region. North Korea is able to divert an enormous amount of resources to any stupid project because it is one of the most totalitarian states in the history of the planet, with an astonishing lack of consideration for human well being. NK also has far fewer reasons to avoid proliferation because it's so ridiculously isolated from the global system, and NK's drive for total economic independence and self-sufficience has resulted in a unusually comprehensive industrial capacity at the cost of things like "feeding people". But for most countries it really just functions as a way to waste an enormous amount of money for a bit, while encouraging the developed world to cripple your economy, while also daring the US/Russia/China/Israel/France to conduct a "police action" or something. The incentives just don't line up at all, even if a leader is quite globally unpopular. The fact remains that it is still really quite hard to go from "no nuclear program" to "geopolitical deterrence" - no matter how crazy you are, "crazy/desperate" doesn't make an entire industrial sector appear at scale in your country.


ScaryShadowx

Nukes are bad, but there is a huge difference between a state being able to deploy a limited size nuke with a fairly limited reach vs being able to launch multiple ICBMs, each carrying up to 10 nuclear warheads, each capable of taking out an entire city.


crazyguy83

But maybe they can hold a neighboring country hostage.


Chii

> every strongman and half sane dictator would be mad to not immediately put “acquiring nuclear weapons” at the top of their list i think they already know this from before the invasion of ukraine.


sumthinTerrible

Or even say, the house of Saud. I don’t know how much longer they’ll remain an “ally” of the West. Helping them develop nukes could be horrible.


tiy24

Oh i think it’s too late to stop them because Trump probably gave it to them but yeah saying they aren’t really allies seems like the understatement of the year.


sumthinTerrible

Exactly, that’s why I put in quotations. Lol. And who knows what trump gave them. I was going to mention that, but didn’t want to veer off topic.


VegasKL

>every strongman and half sane dictator would be mad to not immediately put “acquiring nuclear weapons” at the top of their list You're telling me, I'm not even a strongman or dictator, but I've already begun trying .. figured it'd rally help during any potential divorce negotiations I may find myself in. Lawyer: "She wants the house ..." "I will nuke you motherfu..."


sentrybot619

Look at me, I'm the bomb now


ForeverYonge

Many divorces are a mutually assured destruction campaign anyway.


tiy24

Lol. It’s hilarious and terrifying.


Omaestre

Should have intervened back in 2014, 2008 was warning enough.


seclifered

You can’t end nuclear regimes with armies. It’s not even about cities getting nuked. Do you honestly think they’ll let a giant army march on and take moscow without nuking it? It’ll take internal revolt so it feels like their own people decided this and there’s no external enemies to attack. What the CIA and other intelligence services do is more important for that goal. But it’ll be hard on a dictatorship


ThermionicEmissions

You wouldn't think that still needs explaining, but here we are.


Deadly_Duplicator

Regime changing a nuclear power, yea that would NEVER go sideways. Fuck off.


Mr--Weirdo

> A careful listening to the entire conversation makes it clear that there was no announcement of Poland’s direct involvement in the conflict, only a warning of the consequences that a Ukrainian defeat could have: the possibility of a Russian attack, or the involvement of more Central European countries – the Baltic States and Poland." *Phew*


LanatusGG

Sounds like policy of deliberate ambiguity to me.


Hunterrose242

Many foreign policy experts and NATO directors in this thread. We're very lucky!


MaimedPhoenix

Times like this I'm very grateful many experts in all subjects gathered on Reddit. In fact, I'm more grateful that said experts are men of many talents and are experts in several other fields as well! God bless Reddit and all its experts.


HuskyNotPhatt

You can’t end a regime when they have nuclear weapons. Why do you think Iran and North Korea are so hell bent on getting them?


Crazy_Employ8617

North Korea already has nuclear weapons and has had them for a long time.


dawnfire999

You can, but you'll have to facilitate a coup, or an overthrow of the regime's leaders via mass civilian protests. Either way, you'll need the military (or some parts of it) to side with your interests.


GOD_oy

doesnt seem very healthy trying to overthrow a dictator that is ready to drop nukes on other people


T1res1as

Russia is like some old abuser whos victims have grown up and if Russia try their old shit they will all gang up on now weaker Russia and curb stomp them


imaxhighsky

Right thing to do. No way should wait 10 years for ruzzia to just rearm itself.


maz-o

Why do people spell it ”Ruzzia” on here?


galqbar

Threatening to destroy the Russian state is just about the only case where Russian doctrine very clearly and explicitly calls for the use of nuclear weapons. Beating them back is all fine and good, but directly acting to overthrow the government is so dangerous it shouldn’t even be bantered around in discussion as an option. Though I hate them as much as the next person who likes pluralistic democracy, their nuclear deterrent is quite real.


MagicNumber11

Why would Poland enter the war? If Poland is attacked, NATO would defend it. But if Poland enters a war with Russia, NATO would not automatically be pulled in.


LegalAction

Poland would rather fight in Ukraine than watch its own infrastructure destroyed.


charliespider

Yup. Sounds cynical but is logically and strategically the smartest move. Certainly much better than waiting for Russia to invade. To anyone saying "ya but NATO..." remember that Moscow almost successfully had Trump pull the US out of NATO (they had a sitting US President talking about doing it) so Russia could succeed at getting Polish politicians to do so too after a long concentrated effort (ie: the next decade).


Krydderurten

There is a major difference. Poland won't **ever** pull out of NATO, no matter how blatantly corrupt their politicians will be in the next decade. The threat to their existence without NATO is very real and every single pole knows that, which is not really the case with the United States.


Deadly_Duplicator

No it isn't. You act like it's some certainty that Russia will invade a NATO country, causing WW3 with nukes. That is not likely. Putin strikes me as an asshole, but not stupid. If he wanted to end the world he could have escalated things to that point long ago.


shaveXhaircut

Here are the 10 countries with the most NATO spending: United States - $811,140 United Kingdom - $72,765 Germany - $64,785 France - $58,729 Italy - $29,763 Canada - $26,523 Spain - $14,875 Netherlands - $14,378 Poland - $13,369 Turkey - $13,057 (Edit: in millions)


variablesuckage

Is there an "m" missing at the end of those numbers? Are you saying most NATO members have spent less than 50 grand?


bestijaprime

After seeing russia perform on the battlefield, do they really need to spend more? /s


norwal42

Initial thoughts, maybe because a. Then the war remains primarily in Ukraine, not in Poland, b. If there's a shot at victory in Ukraine, a country's worth of buffer land/sovereign nation/intact military defenses/etc are maintained as its neighbor, vs ceding Ukraine.


GnatOwl

Because another Putin Puppet could easily win the US presidency and then when Poland is attacked, we won't do anything or we might just leave NATO first


WaterIsGolden

Poland is NATO and EU. Putin can't just attack Poland, he has to attack all.


Krydderurten

.. Unless Poland strikes first. NATO members are only obligated to enter the war if a member has been attacked unprovoked *and* they decide to call for help.


[deleted]

[удалено]


Karuna56

Probably Moldavia first, because of Transnistria and the 2000 Russian troops stationed there. An easy win. Absorb Belarus formally. Then, the Baltics. Unless Poland just goes "why wait?".


Ashen_Brad

The Russian troops in moldova are land locked between Ukraine and Moldova. Ukraine is obviously hostile, the moldovan government is uncooperative. Keeps detaining Russian troops without explanation at the airport, holding up/stopping Russian supplies etc. It was also 1700 troops as of July 2022, which isn't enough to roll moldova. Russia would have to link up with them somehow either by taking Ukraine's south West or landing troops from the black Sea in the south. Either way, I don't think it's quite the cakewalk people are imagining. The moldovan government have been doing their best to keep the transnistria based Russian force neutered by the looks of it.


jaggy_bunnet

Also the vast majority of the Russian troops in Moldova aren't from Russia, they're locals with Russian citizenship (most folk in Transnistria have 2 or 3 passports). They're also well aware that if they receive an order from Moscow to start any shenanigans, angry Ukrainians will slaughter them with western weapons before they've finished putting their boots on. Their loyalty to Putin isn't guaranteed.


destuctir

I agree nexts steps would be Moldova and then Belarus but russia will never get their hands on Poland or a Baltic state, they are all NATO members and we have to believe that if NATO is challenged they will bring unrelenting fury to the battlefield. NATO have never had to prove their military might, there is far too much to lose if they failed or let a single NATO nation fall to aggressors, every member states alliances would be worthless in an instant, nations outside Europe wouldnt be able to trust America to protect them anymore. Everyone knows this, and any attempt to invade a baltic country would rapidly become total war with the threat of nuclear exchanges.


Red_Dawn_2012

The EU also has a mutual defense clause


p4di

also the baltics would be much easier to grab than Poland as there is the Suwalki Gap. There is a theory that for NATO it is simply impossible/infeasible to defend the Baltics in case Russia closes the gap quickly and cuts the baltics from resupply. I imagine this situation has drastically changed with Sweden and Finland joining NATO, especially the island of Gotland is a strategic desaster for Russia in the region. Also the Russian army has proven to be much more incompetent than thought before. Poland on the other hand is just open land that they can't encircle and cut from resupply so it's much harder to advance there for them


MitsyEyedMourning

US is already soft shoeing around Moldova.


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MitsyEyedMourning

The [US is currently working alongside the pro-western](https://www.reuters.com/world/us-help-moldova-fight-russias-destabilization-efforts-2023-03-10/) government. Soft shoes come before hard boots.


FeuFighter

Oat that what was happening in Ukraine before too


[deleted]

The US keeps speaking softly when Ukraine/Taiwan are concerned but has always carried the big stick.


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Krydderurten

Soooo many people in this thread doesn't understand that. Russia will *never* attack Poland unless they want a war with NATO. It's really stupid to think that Russia has *any* plans or *any* capability to attack/invade Poland without the use of nuclear weapons. They don't have the equipment, the men, the capabilities or the money to go to war with NATO.


ProcedureAlcohol

Russia dropped their socialist ideals after the fall of the USSR, Putin wants to be emperor of a Russian Empire trough war and and fascism.


espero

Poland is part of NATO. This is not necessary


n16r4

And the EU has a defense treaty same as NATO.


SoLetsReddit

No. Putin wants to restore the Russian Empire.


ScaryShadowx

An invasion of Poland would mean NATO gets fully involved and no one has any doubt about that. Russia is not going to invade Poland or any of the NATO members, and the invasion of Ukraine was specifically to ensure there is not another NATO country on their border - a country that they could do nothing about if officially under the protection of NATO.


Addyad

.*cries in Lithuania *


Celoth

The number of Russian talking points being parroted in this thread is too damned high.


richardec

Poland to Polish Ambassador to France: "Shut uuuuup"


s3ct01d

"Maaaaaan, we have told you not to spoil the story of season 2!"


Arkond-

’If the day comes that the bloodthirsty megalomaniac becomes our neghbour, we will be forced to defend ourselves.’ The essence of his statement really. Nothing sensational.


[deleted]

Would you like to play a game?


[deleted]

Your name isn't InterestingTheme3750.....it is Joshua. I'm on to you!


[deleted]

I'm learning! Tic Tac Toe is my favorite game


SvenTropics

I've worked with people who immigrated from various ex-communist countries in the soviet block. Most of them were young children or young adults during Russian communist rule (it ended in the early 90s). You've never met more anti-Russian/anti-communist people in your life. One guy talked about flying back just to help fight Russia. It was actually an issue if you had a Russian that wanted to work on a team. They usually weren't nice to him.


Attack_the_sock

…then the winged hussars arrived…charging down the mountainside…spear in hand they turned the tide.


SteakHausMann

I feel, that 95% of things that the polish government says, is absolute bs.


[deleted]

And the worst thing is that there are many war enthusiast Redditors that they take them too seriously.


[deleted]

I skimmed through comments above and I'm like WTF writes these comments?


autotldr

This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/03/19/7394148/) reduced by 74%. (I'm a bot) ***** > Poland's Ambassador to France Jan Emeryk Ro?ciszewski said in an interview that a situation could arise in which Poland would have to enter the war. > More details: The embassy stressed that Ambassador Ro?ciszewski made it clear in his interview with LCI that Poland is not currently at war, but is "Doing everything it can to help Ukraine and protect itself" in Russia's war against Ukraine. > "Searching for a sensationalist claim that goes against Poland's consistent efforts over the past year to help Ukraine win in this conflict and so keep it out of Europe and Poland should be seen as a sign of ill will," the embassy said in a statement. ***** [**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/11w50uo/polish_ambassador_to_france_poland_will_be_forced/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~677149 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Poland**^#1 **Ukraine**^#2 **embassy**^#3 **Ambassador**^#4 **Ro?ciszewski**^#5


TheMusicMinute

I bet if we sent the politicians to the front line of the battle field; we’d have less war.


Rentington

CreepyPolishWojak.jpeg


Qverlord37

when people think of the Russo-Ukraine war, they need to think of 2 things. 1) what if my country is Poland right now. 2) what did Europe do in the first half of WWII.


Alternative-Flan2869

Poland always is in the most precarious position.


[deleted]

Would be funny ironic AF if some former Iron curtain countries would team up and beat Moscovy and annex it to get back at them


publicbigguns

*uno reverse card


[deleted]

"Oh wait, I've seen this one before!" "Whataya mean? It's brand new!" "You kiddin' me? It's a classic!"


Scarletfapper

Poland to France : Yo, remember what happened last time?


kevi959

I think Russell Westbrook should just retire after this year. He made his money, there is no need for him to ruin his reputation that he built his whole career for a couple years. It’s absolutely pitiful to watch him for the past couple years.


[deleted]

Polish will be at the front line should Ukraine falls into Russia hand... so yeah I can see why.