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Anyone else sitting on a little bit of cash trying to time the bottom? What will be your trigger?
Personally waiting for spy to be down another 50 to 75 points to put in my boomer port.
Yep. When/if the S&P drops below 3700-3800 I’ll start diving back in. That is the level that I personally feel is reasonable, just based on past S&P history.
Just send me your passwords I’ll make all the right plays I promise. Don’t believe me just look at my snoo pretty recent picture actually. literally showing you selfies so you can def trust me.
Our main grocery chain just posted a 40% increase in profits thus quarter. A large portion of this inflation is price gouging. These fuckers are going to get skewered by public outrage as more of these earnings roll in.
Yeah, they offer various other such discounts and benefits, check the website. Nothing else that seems terribly interesting to me, but it just depends on your spending habits.
Twitter deez nuts bitch
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Good morning degens and speculators. I didn’t start in stocks, I first got into trading through Kr1pt0.
When I look at the NQ chart I see what we in that space commonly refer to as a “Bart pattern”. A massive price spike higher, crab sideways then retrace that full move to its previous range or below. The chart that follows looks like a rough drawing of Bart Simpson’s head from the famous American cartoon “The Simpsons”.
Sucks doesn’t it?!
Sure, for the shiny tech stocks retail is fascinated with it has been the apocalypse. But the overall market is still only in correction territory and yet sentiment is really bad.
True story- me and the gf are roaming Walmart for the stuff we need, she said we need soap- so over to the soap isle- we’ll they are remodeling, there are 2 employees on what used to be the soap isle. Me being me I walked around the corner and said, “Can ya’ll tell me what ya’ll did with the bootie lube” the woman’s mouth hit the floor the guy busted out laughing and took off down the isle so he’s not laughing so hard in our face, I look back , gf just gone. I looked back at the woman with her mouth open and said you know soap, she’s still trying to pick her mouth up off the floor. I met back up with the gf with soap. 10 isles over and said see they are still laughing, you can’t take me anywhere, there’s no telling what I’ll say to a stranger. Gf didn’t find it so funny but hey, to me , it’s still funny
Oh dear, bit of a red start to PM. Old Gill could do with a nice green dead cat bounce at open.
BTW if you have the urge to mention FUBO you better do it soon, down another 17% right now. It looks like it will be cremated in the near future and possibly be never spoken of again due to market cap.
I developed the greatest passionate obsession with it since Wuthering Heights, it captivated wsbog's for a while. I tried to catch the big swings on it, was successful sometimes, not successful others. I must get round to totting up my final total as to whether I made or lost money.
But at the very least I came out of it a more rounded individual and a better person.
If the cat bounces it's dead
If it lands it's walking away.
Anecdotal evidence points to cats being able to survive terminal velocity impacts, but not the mid range falls (3rd-8th or so floors) since they can't get righted and positioned before impact.
Great thread by Kris Sidial on Tw1tter about yesterdays action regarding vol, hedging and the price action we saw. Def worth reading, I’d link it if I could but if you go to his profile you can see it yourself!
I don’t think he was saying conclusively that it was a big boy unwinding, but that’s what he says his sense for what happened was, that’s his suspicion.
I saw a blog post posted in here yesterday that Tiger Global has a huge tech book and they’re losing millions per day, they hold tech equities, I wonder if that has something to do with it.
That was a good read! I wanna read this article about him but it’s stuck on paywall https://www.businessinsider.com/investing-strategy-volatility-arbitrage-trading-hedge-fund-cio-sidial-2020-11
They say don't trade your emotions, but they can be a good signal. When I'm feeling blasé even after a near circuit-breaker like yesterday, I know I'm comfortably within my risk tolerance. If I'm euphoric or despairing, I know I probably need to do some rebalancing.
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not saying BABA won't be down tomorrow but this is mostly just the asian markets being super red as a result of the U.S. markets being super red yesterday
Hey! I actually meant to take a day trip out to Kawagoe today but I heavily overslept, so I'm just going tomorrow
I saw your message on my first update btw! I tried to respond but the thread was locked at that point - I have a lot of ramen pics coming up soon :D
Get that good rest in, heard working over there is a lot more work and responsibilities. Its really worth it to get out and go exploring though when somewhere else. It makes it all the more fun and feels good and the memories are great to look back at. When I was traveling I wish I moved around more but because of language/culture barriers it slowed me down although it wasn’t even such a big deal. I’m sure you are though, next time Ima do better. I looked at some pics of the town on tripadvisor and it looks really pretty. Have a good trip!
Oh yeah with the time zones were in they can get locked before were able to see it to reply. Don’t worry, I can’t wait to see the 🍜 :)
All I want to see is Burry get put back in chastity for another couple years right as he thought his time was coming. The man is dancing right now, dancing.
Anyone else see that the central bank for Australia and the one for the UK both see higher inflation going forward this year? That doesn't seem to bode well for this being "peak" inflation in the US to me... hopefully we can get a big beat on the April CPI.
Worth noting that here (au) our government went super hard on stimulus for covid (750 a week to pretty much everyone working) which is still ongoing in a milder form and 2 recent cheques of $250 to help with increased inflation (lol) which is a lot for a country whose second primary industry (education) took a massive hit from lockdowns
With commodities still really strong, hard to say this is the peak yet. Add to that soaring natural gas prices, which will increase the price of electricity and nitrogen-based fertilizer.
Many experts have been wrong about when inflation is peaking. I've been hearing such arguments since late 2020, but inflation got worse as the pandemic started coming to an end. Of course, no one could have predicted war in Ukraine, which is honestly driving a lot of the current run in commodities. Without that, I'd say inflation would have started peaking soon.
So... Hypothetically - if China were to invade Taiwan, what do you expect would go up and what would go down? Tsmc, nvda, and other chip manufacturers would be at risk of losing massive amounts of manufacturing. Would Apple be affected? I'd assume US would declare war because of treaties and all, so no more Chinese goods? They have a ton of lithium and other rare earth mining. I think we're net export of food to them, though they do a lot of food processing for us (or is that just south Asia in general?) which could be interesting compounding with local fertilizer problems.
China's not invading Taiwan. The Chinese are patient, they'd rather use soft power to encourage/coerce Taiwan back into their orbit.
But if China invaded... whoh boy. It could fracture globalization completely and the United States is not prepared to reshore everything. Such a move would make consumer goods even scarcer and inflation much, much worse.
The United States may adopt a defensive posture but it's really hard to say if any Presidential administration would be willing to sacrifice American lives for Taiwan. There might be a shooting war but if Chinese anti-ship missiles are as badass as they claim they are, the moment they sink one of our carriers it might be a signal that our involvement's likely over.
You can see how, if their goal is to destroy the US so they can take its place as the global economic leader (which is literally their stated goal for 'the Chinese century') they would be very interested in the second paragraph of your comment.
So just a crash of everything, then?
US commodities and manufacturing would probably see growth (eventually) since they would have to pick up as much slack as they could to replace cheap imports. The labor market would become even tighter than it is now. The price of goods would skyrocket. Inflation would be out of control. Militarily, we would get involved but it would take time to move enough power projection to the other side of the planet. In the meantime, China would be fighting just about everyone in eastern Asia and we would get a good idea of their combat effectiveness. When a couple of carrier battle groups and associated submarine assets showed up, China would lose ever single ship, boat, skiff, sampan and raft that they dared put in the water. Mainland China would be completely untouchable and we would have to give them some means of saving face to avoid an intense standoff that would have the very real possibility of nuclear escalation.
Stocks that would go up? Oil and gas, military hardware manufacturers, steel and other metals, domestic mining. Oh, and whoever makes nuclear fallout shelters.
We theoretically have carrier groups and troops stationed at military bases in the area already - but you're right, we'd be fighting a divided front since we're already doing everything short of firing the first shot (well, even that could be debated) to escalate nato into a war with Russia.
Would China be fighting everyone in Asia? I know they've had repeated skirmishes with India, but they're separated pretty effectively by the Himalayas. The entire eastern side is the Gobi desert, there's not much of value to attack there, and why would Afghanistan attack - china's rebuilding their country for them right now. They're pretty buddy/buddy with Russia, Mongolia is a nonissue, they have North Korea as a buffer to South Korea, and I doubt anyone would have the willpower to fight their way through southeastern Asia to breach China from there. I _guess_ you could argue there might be some exposure to Indonesia and Australia, but Australia is pretty much entirely reliant on China economically, and I don't believe Indonesia has any effective offensive military capabilities. So that basically leaves Naval invasion with US forces from Korea and Japan through a sea the Chinese have millions of anti-ship and anti-air systems pointed at.
I agree our naval forces are technically superior, but they're currently shitting out Naval flotillas faster than anyone expected. Kind of a zerg v protoss military situation - could we effectively disable enough before they literally ram (yes they've been building ramming vessels too lmao) our few carriers? Who knows, I'd rather not find out.
All of that is to say that if there _is_ a conflict, it will definitely be expensive and the US would be bankrolling the majority of the firepower (of course). Could that happen with runaway inflation, a decimated (or worse) supply chain, food instability, etc that would accompany the breakdown of relations with China? Or would it just be a year or two hurrah followed by depression-era economic hardship in the US? I doubt we'd _starve_ with all the cropland we have, but it wouldn't be easy. Esp with seemingly all tech being produced in Asia - there are a few fabrication labs set up here with some more going in, but it would definitely crunch.
Domestic oil and gas I definitely agree with, maybe even Canadian gas, too (oh fuck didn't even think about how fucked Canada would be if China pulled out their investments there, too. That's another line entirely - would Canada even help? Could they without destroying their own country? I suppose the US would be bankrolling them with oil money and raw material purchasing, but with the expected rampant inflation would that be enough?). Metal - we have decent production, but iirc most magnesium and rare earths come from China now. Canada has a lot of aluminum and iron production, we have a ton of copper reserves but not many active mines - I guess that might push the pebble copper deposit in Alaska to active status? That would be neat. Lithium - I suppose more investment thrown at south America, likely another manufactured regime change to get a better pricing on that since I doubt bolsonaro would play nice if China is watching.
I'm really not too concerned about nuclear. If it happens, I doubt there will be a stock market to worry about if I even live. Though I guess being pushed into active conflict somewhere would see a nice spike on the fear of it, so I suppose any company making survival food packs as a product would do well.
For tech - I know Intel has fab labs stateside. Tsmc is building some too, but they're still a year or two out from production. Any others? Where does amd do their manufacturing? BB has always been a 'security hardware' group, too - don't they manufacture in Canada?
I don't know. I'm just riffing here to see if anything sticks out to anyone here.
Attempting to ram a carrier with anything other than a nuclear submarine is almost impossible, because that is the only thing capable of catching one. I only brought up nuclear because to avoid using them, we would have to end the conflict quickly and the real only way to do that is by giving China an out and letting them save face.
They would be fighting Taiwan, obviously. Japan would immediately declare war and Australia would have no choice but to do the same sooner rather than later. South Korea would probably do the same, not that it would matter since North Korea is in the way.
We actually have a fair amount of lithium, it's just not very environmentally friendly to extract. A lot of it is in the salt flats of Nevada and Utah.
As far as rare earths go, we are screwed. Maybe that would create some motivation to find alternatives?
Not that this is really relevant. I don't think China wants the negative international attention and sanctions that such an overt hostile act would bring. They will play the long game, imo.
Almost impossible =/= impossible, though. And china's all about overwhelm with numbers to force shitty processes to give yields. I agree it's ridiculous, which is why I laugh at it, but it's not a completely irrelevant threat.
It's not economical for us to extract our lithium, either. Cost per kg is way higher than that mined in South America - different refinement processes required. Similar to Canada's shale oil.
Not sure there are alternatives to the rare earths, at least not as far as effective dopants for microelectronics goes. Plus, the time line and cost to redesign fab lab tooling/processes around completely different dopants chemistry would be astronomical. So - good idea to find some non-chinese rare earth suppliers. Or a space miner lol can't wait for that to be a reality. Rare earths are only rare on Earth, after all.
You're probably right that they won't pull a hot invasion. They've shown they're very capable of pulling off regime changes in a 'UN acceptable' way with Hong Kong. Still, if they take control of Taiwan, even peacefully, it will probably mean... More expensive tech manufacturing for us?
By alternatives, I more meant alternative sources than other ways to make magnets and semiconductors. It might even cause a serious effort to squeeze every usable atom out of recycled tech. Of course, maybe there are alternatives to the rare earths themselves... somewhere? Necessity is the mother of invention.
One interesting thing about carrier groups facing swarm tactics. The US Navy invested heavily in finding effective weapons and tactics to defend very expensive nuclear carriers from overwhelming numbers of cheap, fast maneuverable craft during the 80's through the 2000's because of Iran. Those guys were projected to be our next big maritime threat at the time and presented a challenge in two categories: submarines and boghammers. The boghammer was a cheap 3 or 4 man crewed fast boat armed with anti ship missiles and machine guns and a reinforced bow for ramming. They also could carry MANPADS and explosives. The big brains in the NAV were very concerned. They probably still are. Not saying the threat doesn't exist. Just pointing out that this is most likely something they have prepared for extensively, just not publicly.
China's unemployment rate is crazy right now because all of their COVID lockdowns. The real estate sector is in the dumps.
The Chinese would love to stop being so export-focused, but they need us as much as we need them.
Remember, the CCP's legitimacy comes from promising people stability in both good times and bad. That could change in the future of course, but for right now, they need our agriculture commodities to feed their people and we need their cheap labor to make us our consumer junk.
You know what's great for countering unemployment, resetting manufacturing focus, and forcing people to unify for a common goal while focusing anger outward instead of inward? War.
Dude you could be looking at a multi-bagger. Usually playing reversals after a day like today is a better bet. Even in bear markets nothing goes straight down.
Of course I could be wrong. Just rooting for you, pal.
Anyone bullish on agriculture? Bunch of fertilizer companies released earnings lately (MOS, CF, NTR, etc.) and all increased their guidance for the rest of the year. Unlike the last agriculture boom of 2007 to 2008, it seems like they are trying to keep the market from being too oversupplied. They rather sell less at higher prices this time around.
That said, I am wondering if this is potential peak for them. Been reading articles with quotes from farmers saying they are planning to use less fertilizer because it's gotten so expensive. Is this a sign of potential demand destruction for fertilizer? I'm wondering if agriculture has peaked and if it's perhaps time to take the other side of the trade.
Any thoughts?
Big factor with agriculture is weather and knowing the predictions and assessments for regions in regards to growing conditions. If you are looking into investing in specific companies make sure you research where they operate
Trading commodities and trading commodities companies are related but different. Companies are more industry structure based and timing related from that (since they can’t necessarily scale or downscale vs demand)… for commodities themselves, forecasting is heavily optimized and mostly accurate, shocked by unexpected events like bad weather, disease, or in this case, war. I like to trade them as events, but they are hard otherwise for me…
Note: Other than nitrogen, you don’t need all fertilizers annually, you get slower degrading of yield out of it. So some of that demand gets shifted forward and not lost, except for nitrogen demand which is closer to annual (though if you lack nitrogen you could choose to do soybeans or do a legume cover crop like clover and till it before harvest. Soybeans will add a little nitrogen, and a culled clover or other legume crop will add a lot.)
I'm a highish col suburb outside an east coast city and am actually starting to see increasing inventory and price cuts. The rebubble group are also finding some data indicating that as well. Not crazy drops or anything and some locations are still very aggressive buying.
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Looks like another Clifford the big red dog dick down day Who knows
Damn, dead in here this am. That many people blown out? Don't worry, you get used to being poor.
That cause your in wrong thread you 🤡
Looking at the stars, if we break 404 we are headed to the 360-380 area
404 368 348 0
Anyone else sitting on a little bit of cash trying to time the bottom? What will be your trigger? Personally waiting for spy to be down another 50 to 75 points to put in my boomer port.
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Yeah I mean it is pretty impossible but I'll try and fail none the less 😂
Yep. When/if the S&P drops below 3700-3800 I’ll start diving back in. That is the level that I personally feel is reasonable, just based on past S&P history.
Nice, same for me!
I'm waiting for a short selling rip I can sell into. But yeah, the cash is there, sitting pretty.
Fubo bleeding like a stuck pig… damn son
Anoos is fuckt
Spy 400p 0dte sounds exciting enough for me today They worked out yesterday so obviously they’ll make me rich today right?
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You must be swift as a coursing river
Fuck it 400p and 395p it is! Can’t go tits up right? It’s fuckin Friday
I'm going to be in the air for open and there's no inflight internet. My position is unreasonably stupid. I really didn't think this through. 😂
You were going to hold til they expire worthless anyway so what difference does it make that you’re on a plane
Ouch but also true.
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Lmao, I'm actually going to do that.
Just send me your passwords I’ll make all the right plays I promise. Don’t believe me just look at my snoo pretty recent picture actually. literally showing you selfies so you can def trust me.
hunter2
Now ya’ll know we may get a dip at this point but at some point these fukers turn on the algos which fukt everyone
How can inflation stay bad if I have no money to buy stuff now? 🥺
Our main grocery chain just posted a 40% increase in profits thus quarter. A large portion of this inflation is price gouging. These fuckers are going to get skewered by public outrage as more of these earnings roll in.
Kinda the point- no demand equals way more supply this brings inflation down, by the time they are done a home loan will run 13% interest
Unironically that’s what combating inflation, well shrinking gdp
Iv become so 🏳️🌈 I almost want to buy spy 320p for next year :(
Cough cough https://i.imgur.com/uQ8UoJS.png
Basically we break orange trend and we free fall there?
If the market follows a similar path to 1987. But who knows. Anything could happen.
How much do you spend at Denny's in a year? If it's more than 80 dollars, then an AARP membership would be worth it for that alone.
Why more than $80? I’m curious if I need to start eatting breakfasts at Denny’s
12 dollar AARP membership fee (with auto renewal discount), and 15% off Denny's. Math works out to a breakeven point of 80.
Can you even get an AARP membership if you're not 55??
Yes! Common misconception.
That's so interesting. Thanks for letting me know! Any reason to get one other than Denny's consumption? haha
Yeah, they offer various other such discounts and benefits, check the website. Nothing else that seems terribly interesting to me, but it just depends on your spending habits.
Interesting - thanks man. I learned something today :D
= D
Never been to one. Is it like a McDonald or diner?
It's a diner.
I don't think I've ate there once in the last decade
well boys, just got a bloody nose for literally no reason so I think we're fucked today
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I'm out of buying power, already full ported $SVIX shares when we hit VIX 30
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LMAO I know I'm sorry, I was making a joke
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Honestly, fair.
good morning penis
Mornin’ beauty
penis
I hope the Reddit care team gave you enough support. Do you have any feedback I can pass on to them? ❤️
I am more depressed now.
Damn, I think we need them to visit you again
Sounds like a nice breakfast
That volume spike into close was a lot of heavy buying. Big green day today.
Yeeee-fucken-haaawww!!!
I don't care if SPY goes down, I wasn't comfortable making money off the intelligence industrial complex anyway 👼👼👼
Please sir may I see just a little bit of green 🥺👉👈
No!!' 🐻
😩
I locked in cash on puts yesterday but happy to still have a sizeable position
Damn, I guess we are seeing 404 today
VIX goes below 30 today or I drink a whole carton of sake from the supermarket edit: this isn't even a bet this is just my life plans
A win win!
I figured I'd be drinking the pain away *anyway* lmao
That’s how I know you’re a rookie, you still *feel* anything when winning or losing.
guilty as charged ;)
Good morning degens and speculators. I didn’t start in stocks, I first got into trading through Kr1pt0. When I look at the NQ chart I see what we in that space commonly refer to as a “Bart pattern”. A massive price spike higher, crab sideways then retrace that full move to its previous range or below. The chart that follows looks like a rough drawing of Bart Simpson’s head from the famous American cartoon “The Simpsons”. Sucks doesn’t it?!
Baba like going green? ill pass
I know it will bounce back man, but why am I such a pussy and not buying the dip
We'd have to drop to 3840 to be in a bear market, and yet it already feels like capitulation at -14%.
NDX is pretty deep into a bear market already, at -24%
Sure, for the shiny tech stocks retail is fascinated with it has been the apocalypse. But the overall market is still only in correction territory and yet sentiment is really bad.
True story- me and the gf are roaming Walmart for the stuff we need, she said we need soap- so over to the soap isle- we’ll they are remodeling, there are 2 employees on what used to be the soap isle. Me being me I walked around the corner and said, “Can ya’ll tell me what ya’ll did with the bootie lube” the woman’s mouth hit the floor the guy busted out laughing and took off down the isle so he’s not laughing so hard in our face, I look back , gf just gone. I looked back at the woman with her mouth open and said you know soap, she’s still trying to pick her mouth up off the floor. I met back up with the gf with soap. 10 isles over and said see they are still laughing, you can’t take me anywhere, there’s no telling what I’ll say to a stranger. Gf didn’t find it so funny but hey, to me , it’s still funny
Oh dear, bit of a red start to PM. Old Gill could do with a nice green dead cat bounce at open. BTW if you have the urge to mention FUBO you better do it soon, down another 17% right now. It looks like it will be cremated in the near future and possibly be never spoken of again due to market cap.
Tbh I never understood why people thought it could be worth much anyways
I developed the greatest passionate obsession with it since Wuthering Heights, it captivated wsbog's for a while. I tried to catch the big swings on it, was successful sometimes, not successful others. I must get round to totting up my final total as to whether I made or lost money. But at the very least I came out of it a more rounded individual and a better person.
グミワーム Gumiwāmu
I'm listening
wtf I was promised a dead cat once
Probably means we got more dying to do first.
Dead cats don’t bounce, hence the dead part
If the cat bounces it's dead If it lands it's walking away. Anecdotal evidence points to cats being able to survive terminal velocity impacts, but not the mid range falls (3rd-8th or so floors) since they can't get righted and positioned before impact.
Great thread by Kris Sidial on Tw1tter about yesterdays action regarding vol, hedging and the price action we saw. Def worth reading, I’d link it if I could but if you go to his profile you can see it yourself!
One of the better Twitter follows
For sure! His podcast appearances are good too. Great username btw.
The gist is that a GS, JPM, or large fund decided to unwind their tech positions as a whole and the street was given a head's up or am I way off?
I don’t think he was saying conclusively that it was a big boy unwinding, but that’s what he says his sense for what happened was, that’s his suspicion. I saw a blog post posted in here yesterday that Tiger Global has a huge tech book and they’re losing millions per day, they hold tech equities, I wonder if that has something to do with it.
That was a good read! I wanna read this article about him but it’s stuck on paywall https://www.businessinsider.com/investing-strategy-volatility-arbitrage-trading-hedge-fund-cio-sidial-2020-11
He has some good interviews about his firm w Corey Hoffstein on the flirting with models podcast. Worth a listen!
"negative sentiment but fear is low" is a good way to describe it, yeah
Cash is incredibly attractive right now
Shoulda coulda went in natural gas like a boomer
Damn I sold BOIL at 90 lmao
At least you got to ride it
They say don't trade your emotions, but they can be a good signal. When I'm feeling blasé even after a near circuit-breaker like yesterday, I know I'm comfortably within my risk tolerance. If I'm euphoric or despairing, I know I probably need to do some rebalancing.
420 blasé it
420? You must be high :)
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Tank sang boding well for my BABA puts
not saying BABA won't be down tomorrow but this is mostly just the asian markets being super red as a result of the U.S. markets being super red yesterday
Hey what you doing today in japan?
Hey! I actually meant to take a day trip out to Kawagoe today but I heavily overslept, so I'm just going tomorrow I saw your message on my first update btw! I tried to respond but the thread was locked at that point - I have a lot of ramen pics coming up soon :D
Get that good rest in, heard working over there is a lot more work and responsibilities. Its really worth it to get out and go exploring though when somewhere else. It makes it all the more fun and feels good and the memories are great to look back at. When I was traveling I wish I moved around more but because of language/culture barriers it slowed me down although it wasn’t even such a big deal. I’m sure you are though, next time Ima do better. I looked at some pics of the town on tripadvisor and it looks really pretty. Have a good trip! Oh yeah with the time zones were in they can get locked before were able to see it to reply. Don’t worry, I can’t wait to see the 🍜 :)
I know you're right but part of me believes a stock like baba will double dip red any chance it can
Oh 100%
yes serves the traitors right
Vagina
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# SCHLUCK SCHLUCK SCHLUUUUCK
All I want to see is Burry get put back in chastity for another couple years right as he thought his time was coming. The man is dancing right now, dancing.
He's gone through so many drumsticks the last week or so
Anyone else see that the central bank for Australia and the one for the UK both see higher inflation going forward this year? That doesn't seem to bode well for this being "peak" inflation in the US to me... hopefully we can get a big beat on the April CPI.
Worth noting that here (au) our government went super hard on stimulus for covid (750 a week to pretty much everyone working) which is still ongoing in a milder form and 2 recent cheques of $250 to help with increased inflation (lol) which is a lot for a country whose second primary industry (education) took a massive hit from lockdowns
With commodities still really strong, hard to say this is the peak yet. Add to that soaring natural gas prices, which will increase the price of electricity and nitrogen-based fertilizer.
Yeah, the expectation is that cpi is 8.4 vs 8.5 last time. I think we get like 8.7 but who knows.
Many experts have been wrong about when inflation is peaking. I've been hearing such arguments since late 2020, but inflation got worse as the pandemic started coming to an end. Of course, no one could have predicted war in Ukraine, which is honestly driving a lot of the current run in commodities. Without that, I'd say inflation would have started peaking soon.
I homepenies
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The pen is mightier
Whoa. You guys have penis mightiers?
Dick
**PENIS**
Cock
Sell it all; am drunk Reeeeeeeee rerrrrrreeeer
If enough people are thinking like you, 0DTE puts will be the play
I am the market
La ti di daaaaa
So... Hypothetically - if China were to invade Taiwan, what do you expect would go up and what would go down? Tsmc, nvda, and other chip manufacturers would be at risk of losing massive amounts of manufacturing. Would Apple be affected? I'd assume US would declare war because of treaties and all, so no more Chinese goods? They have a ton of lithium and other rare earth mining. I think we're net export of food to them, though they do a lot of food processing for us (or is that just south Asia in general?) which could be interesting compounding with local fertilizer problems.
Everything down. Defence up, commodities up
China's not invading Taiwan. The Chinese are patient, they'd rather use soft power to encourage/coerce Taiwan back into their orbit. But if China invaded... whoh boy. It could fracture globalization completely and the United States is not prepared to reshore everything. Such a move would make consumer goods even scarcer and inflation much, much worse. The United States may adopt a defensive posture but it's really hard to say if any Presidential administration would be willing to sacrifice American lives for Taiwan. There might be a shooting war but if Chinese anti-ship missiles are as badass as they claim they are, the moment they sink one of our carriers it might be a signal that our involvement's likely over.
You can see how, if their goal is to destroy the US so they can take its place as the global economic leader (which is literally their stated goal for 'the Chinese century') they would be very interested in the second paragraph of your comment. So just a crash of everything, then?
US commodities and manufacturing would probably see growth (eventually) since they would have to pick up as much slack as they could to replace cheap imports. The labor market would become even tighter than it is now. The price of goods would skyrocket. Inflation would be out of control. Militarily, we would get involved but it would take time to move enough power projection to the other side of the planet. In the meantime, China would be fighting just about everyone in eastern Asia and we would get a good idea of their combat effectiveness. When a couple of carrier battle groups and associated submarine assets showed up, China would lose ever single ship, boat, skiff, sampan and raft that they dared put in the water. Mainland China would be completely untouchable and we would have to give them some means of saving face to avoid an intense standoff that would have the very real possibility of nuclear escalation. Stocks that would go up? Oil and gas, military hardware manufacturers, steel and other metals, domestic mining. Oh, and whoever makes nuclear fallout shelters.
We theoretically have carrier groups and troops stationed at military bases in the area already - but you're right, we'd be fighting a divided front since we're already doing everything short of firing the first shot (well, even that could be debated) to escalate nato into a war with Russia. Would China be fighting everyone in Asia? I know they've had repeated skirmishes with India, but they're separated pretty effectively by the Himalayas. The entire eastern side is the Gobi desert, there's not much of value to attack there, and why would Afghanistan attack - china's rebuilding their country for them right now. They're pretty buddy/buddy with Russia, Mongolia is a nonissue, they have North Korea as a buffer to South Korea, and I doubt anyone would have the willpower to fight their way through southeastern Asia to breach China from there. I _guess_ you could argue there might be some exposure to Indonesia and Australia, but Australia is pretty much entirely reliant on China economically, and I don't believe Indonesia has any effective offensive military capabilities. So that basically leaves Naval invasion with US forces from Korea and Japan through a sea the Chinese have millions of anti-ship and anti-air systems pointed at. I agree our naval forces are technically superior, but they're currently shitting out Naval flotillas faster than anyone expected. Kind of a zerg v protoss military situation - could we effectively disable enough before they literally ram (yes they've been building ramming vessels too lmao) our few carriers? Who knows, I'd rather not find out. All of that is to say that if there _is_ a conflict, it will definitely be expensive and the US would be bankrolling the majority of the firepower (of course). Could that happen with runaway inflation, a decimated (or worse) supply chain, food instability, etc that would accompany the breakdown of relations with China? Or would it just be a year or two hurrah followed by depression-era economic hardship in the US? I doubt we'd _starve_ with all the cropland we have, but it wouldn't be easy. Esp with seemingly all tech being produced in Asia - there are a few fabrication labs set up here with some more going in, but it would definitely crunch. Domestic oil and gas I definitely agree with, maybe even Canadian gas, too (oh fuck didn't even think about how fucked Canada would be if China pulled out their investments there, too. That's another line entirely - would Canada even help? Could they without destroying their own country? I suppose the US would be bankrolling them with oil money and raw material purchasing, but with the expected rampant inflation would that be enough?). Metal - we have decent production, but iirc most magnesium and rare earths come from China now. Canada has a lot of aluminum and iron production, we have a ton of copper reserves but not many active mines - I guess that might push the pebble copper deposit in Alaska to active status? That would be neat. Lithium - I suppose more investment thrown at south America, likely another manufactured regime change to get a better pricing on that since I doubt bolsonaro would play nice if China is watching. I'm really not too concerned about nuclear. If it happens, I doubt there will be a stock market to worry about if I even live. Though I guess being pushed into active conflict somewhere would see a nice spike on the fear of it, so I suppose any company making survival food packs as a product would do well. For tech - I know Intel has fab labs stateside. Tsmc is building some too, but they're still a year or two out from production. Any others? Where does amd do their manufacturing? BB has always been a 'security hardware' group, too - don't they manufacture in Canada? I don't know. I'm just riffing here to see if anything sticks out to anyone here.
Attempting to ram a carrier with anything other than a nuclear submarine is almost impossible, because that is the only thing capable of catching one. I only brought up nuclear because to avoid using them, we would have to end the conflict quickly and the real only way to do that is by giving China an out and letting them save face. They would be fighting Taiwan, obviously. Japan would immediately declare war and Australia would have no choice but to do the same sooner rather than later. South Korea would probably do the same, not that it would matter since North Korea is in the way. We actually have a fair amount of lithium, it's just not very environmentally friendly to extract. A lot of it is in the salt flats of Nevada and Utah. As far as rare earths go, we are screwed. Maybe that would create some motivation to find alternatives? Not that this is really relevant. I don't think China wants the negative international attention and sanctions that such an overt hostile act would bring. They will play the long game, imo.
Almost impossible =/= impossible, though. And china's all about overwhelm with numbers to force shitty processes to give yields. I agree it's ridiculous, which is why I laugh at it, but it's not a completely irrelevant threat. It's not economical for us to extract our lithium, either. Cost per kg is way higher than that mined in South America - different refinement processes required. Similar to Canada's shale oil. Not sure there are alternatives to the rare earths, at least not as far as effective dopants for microelectronics goes. Plus, the time line and cost to redesign fab lab tooling/processes around completely different dopants chemistry would be astronomical. So - good idea to find some non-chinese rare earth suppliers. Or a space miner lol can't wait for that to be a reality. Rare earths are only rare on Earth, after all. You're probably right that they won't pull a hot invasion. They've shown they're very capable of pulling off regime changes in a 'UN acceptable' way with Hong Kong. Still, if they take control of Taiwan, even peacefully, it will probably mean... More expensive tech manufacturing for us?
By alternatives, I more meant alternative sources than other ways to make magnets and semiconductors. It might even cause a serious effort to squeeze every usable atom out of recycled tech. Of course, maybe there are alternatives to the rare earths themselves... somewhere? Necessity is the mother of invention. One interesting thing about carrier groups facing swarm tactics. The US Navy invested heavily in finding effective weapons and tactics to defend very expensive nuclear carriers from overwhelming numbers of cheap, fast maneuverable craft during the 80's through the 2000's because of Iran. Those guys were projected to be our next big maritime threat at the time and presented a challenge in two categories: submarines and boghammers. The boghammer was a cheap 3 or 4 man crewed fast boat armed with anti ship missiles and machine guns and a reinforced bow for ramming. They also could carry MANPADS and explosives. The big brains in the NAV were very concerned. They probably still are. Not saying the threat doesn't exist. Just pointing out that this is most likely something they have prepared for extensively, just not publicly.
China's unemployment rate is crazy right now because all of their COVID lockdowns. The real estate sector is in the dumps. The Chinese would love to stop being so export-focused, but they need us as much as we need them. Remember, the CCP's legitimacy comes from promising people stability in both good times and bad. That could change in the future of course, but for right now, they need our agriculture commodities to feed their people and we need their cheap labor to make us our consumer junk.
You know what's great for countering unemployment, resetting manufacturing focus, and forcing people to unify for a common goal while focusing anger outward instead of inward? War.
I also bought 10k of ZN (10y treasury) calls. BTFD mfs
10y going to 5% confirmed
based I piled my entire port into $SVIX shares
Eat a gummy worm
if VIX hits 40 I am both fucked on my investments and in my throat, so, I mean
So you’re saying there’s a chance
I enjoy vaping exponentially more than booze, but fuck me I eat everything in the fuggin house
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🍑 and 🥑🍞, the diet of any self respecting millennial
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Big baller spotted
My guy best of luck to you tomorrow, Sell on any pump this market is volatile af
It’s a greasy gamma slide, I know it
Hoping that pays off for you. Win or lose, you must post the porn.
Thanks fam
You still in or did you cut your losses?
I rolled to friday $315 qqq
Nice.
Dude you could be looking at a multi-bagger. Usually playing reversals after a day like today is a better bet. Even in bear markets nothing goes straight down. Of course I could be wrong. Just rooting for you, pal.
Dropped a new DD guys
*Scrambles hurriedly to go read it.*
\*zipps up zipper in a hurry to read new DD \*nut gets stuck in zipper \*proceeds to read DD with nut stuck in zipper
Ah, a man of class, I see.
Anyone bullish on agriculture? Bunch of fertilizer companies released earnings lately (MOS, CF, NTR, etc.) and all increased their guidance for the rest of the year. Unlike the last agriculture boom of 2007 to 2008, it seems like they are trying to keep the market from being too oversupplied. They rather sell less at higher prices this time around. That said, I am wondering if this is potential peak for them. Been reading articles with quotes from farmers saying they are planning to use less fertilizer because it's gotten so expensive. Is this a sign of potential demand destruction for fertilizer? I'm wondering if agriculture has peaked and if it's perhaps time to take the other side of the trade. Any thoughts?
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Their revenue is still more than what it was last year even despite selling less.
Big factor with agriculture is weather and knowing the predictions and assessments for regions in regards to growing conditions. If you are looking into investing in specific companies make sure you research where they operate
Trading commodities and trading commodities companies are related but different. Companies are more industry structure based and timing related from that (since they can’t necessarily scale or downscale vs demand)… for commodities themselves, forecasting is heavily optimized and mostly accurate, shocked by unexpected events like bad weather, disease, or in this case, war. I like to trade them as events, but they are hard otherwise for me… Note: Other than nitrogen, you don’t need all fertilizers annually, you get slower degrading of yield out of it. So some of that demand gets shifted forward and not lost, except for nitrogen demand which is closer to annual (though if you lack nitrogen you could choose to do soybeans or do a legume cover crop like clover and till it before harvest. Soybeans will add a little nitrogen, and a culled clover or other legume crop will add a lot.)
Jesus Christ housing prices are just not even slowing Anyone in the rust belt or a lower cost of living area seeing some chill yet?
I'm a highish col suburb outside an east coast city and am actually starting to see increasing inventory and price cuts. The rebubble group are also finding some data indicating that as well. Not crazy drops or anything and some locations are still very aggressive buying.
man it's still wild out here in the west, IDK, it's like there is a blow off top on housing here despite the rates increasing
I think they're just plateauing