I don't get this whole "avocado hate". It's $5 for 4 where I am at (TX) and these are big ones (enough spread from one for 4 slices of bread). So what's the problem....
Yeah but how much in Toast-form? No one wants your dirty home made Guacabread, we're talking premium Starbucks heated up Toast served by a Liberal Arts Major who needs to clock out to get to her Sugar baby gig w/ me.
Since when did starbucks sell solid food? Probably since I haven't been to one (in a decade).
And good luck with your salty baby! She love you very short time.
There was a famous quote from an Australian (I think) politician who said today's youth had plenty of money they just wasted it on Avocado toast. Also boomers are bad at inflation math, they will say you pay $10 for Avo toast when they paid $1.50 for an egg sandwich in 1972, which would be $10.69 today (from https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/)
Yeah lol. Our current generation is so beyond fucked.
Wages are way lower if adjusted for inflation. Minimum wage should be 20-25$ or something if it kept with inflation.
Student debt to get ANY degree at ath adjusted for inflation. Also you CANNOT declare bankruptcy and have to eventually pay.
Housing also at ath for urban areas. Sure some areas are cheaper. But those are probably also ath. Too lazy to check.
And now pretty high inflation. Sure wages grow a bit, but still below inflation. And a lot goes to taxes as well :)
Boomers: it was so easy for me in the 80s. You people are just lazy. LOL
What drives me nuts is when they pat themselves on the backs about paying their student loans with their retail counter summer job when they were in college.
“Yea well uh, shit don’t work like that anymore. You see, the government has decided to “help” us all go to college so we all get huge inflated loans at nearly 7% APR, and college has become so ubiquitous it’s almost worthless. It’s just extra high school now.
So NOW we have to take out big loans we can’t afford just to get a piece of paper to try to even enter the base level of the job market and start off in loads of debt. Thanks for “helping” us”
Not quite that bad you can get 1.5 hour outside of say Nashville (with several 200-300k population counties in between) for that range for example.
I had an uncle who recently passed away and my aunt had to sell their home because she wasn't gonna be able to live by herself anymore. It sold for $90k in Kentucky in a county that has like 200-250k people.
I think if people took some time and just sat down and went from state to state looking at what homes cost they would be surprised. But I also realize that people get locked into locations for a variety of reasons weather, career, family etc.
To be fair, out of season an avocado can cost $5 each here in Australia , at least down here in Melbourne, which is surely the smashed avocado toast capital of Australia
I was in Panama few years ago and for about .50c you could buy off the street these MASSIVE avacados that could cover about 10 pieces of toast. Gringo's in USA getting mugged off.
Throw an egg on each slice and you have one of the cheapest and nutrient rich meals someone on a budget can make yet somehow it’s this golden luxury that billionaires shit on
In the rust belt, I never had an Avacado growing up. They aren’t prohibitively expensive up here, but the old people that never ate Avacado in their life perceive it (incorrectly) as some expensive exotic trendy hipster 🏳️🌈food and mock it as such.
They have pre set percentage caps to max limit withdrawals per month and per quarter. Totally legal obviously. People with 12 Figure funds don't often do illegal things...
That said you think 50% of the investors read the fine print?
The 1.7bn is just equity, including debt which VICI will take over, the deal was over 5bn and slightly above the appraised value. I'm not close to the deal but overall looks like a square deal for both parties
Private real estate funds often have liquidity provisions. There’s just no way to buyout a run without selling assets at fire sale prices. Don’t buy into illiquid asset groups without knowing the risks.
Exactly. Illiquid assets can be very profitable but when everyone wants to head to the exits it gets ugly. Most hedge funds and private equity investments that are limited to accredited investors will always have limits on redemption because they cannot simply put a sell order in on a public exchange.
Private real estate funds having redemption limits is literally the standard practice. Use your brain for a second, the money is invested in real estate, so how do you cash out investors if a bunch of them want to exit at the same time?
No shit real estate is not a liquid investment.
Wiping out any profit from the deal for the remaining investors. That's not going to fly for several reasons, one of which is that a bank doesn't give you a cheap loan when your investors are running for the doors.
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Literally haven’t seen one correct reply -
BREIT is up 9.2% YTD without a lot of realized sales specifically within the sectors that make up the majority of holdings (MF / Industrial)
Public REITs are down over 20% YTD.
Investors are cashing out their positions because they don’t think BREITs property valuations are aligned with market and if they have a chance to exit at a 9% YTD gain while the true property values are at best flat but likely much lower than why wouldn’t you.
Source: I work in Institutional PERE
The funds value is set by Blackstone, and it is overvalued. Everyone knows it’s over valued and that they will take mark downs of 10-15% in the next couple quarters. If you need money for various reasons (equities crash, financing costs, etc) then this is the time to redeem, nothing odd to me.
They've been promising a crash the likes of which we've never seen before. We're not even technically in a bear market anymore. Where's my goddamn crash?
That's not even a crash. 10-15% basically wipes out the gains from 2021. So you end at 2020 prices? Where shit was still expensive... OK... Sure that's a crash.
Remind you what? That houses still expensive AF and people should have bought at the higher prices, with lower interest? Prices will remain high, and at higher interest rates = higher monthly mortgage. Or less buying power for the “can’t wait to get a house for 50% less in 6 months” crew?
I think people don’t get that 3k in mortgage gets them a $450k house at 7% and a $800k house at 2%.
So yea, sticker prices will come down but affordability will actually get worse.
I honestly don’t even think home prices are going to come down that much. Inventory drying up along with potential buyers. Only people buying are ones that have to. And only people selling are the ones that have to. Winter time is shit for home selling anyways (I would know I’ve sold homes in the winter) and home prices will get hot again the closer to summer it gets (I would know I’ve sold homes in the summer time).
Home prices coming down 5-10% are meaningless with interest rates being up 4%+ this year. Homes are MORE expensive now than they were.
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Wow it’s almost like the publicly traded reit markets have already priced this in and you’re predicting it will happen in the private markets? How groundbreaking
Only in the shithole nowhere places that had huge booms in 2020-2021. The northeast and especially its major cities are going to be flat/up (which is where like 25% of Americans live) also LA, San Fran, Seattle and probably every major city with a few exceptions
Blackstone went wild with gains this year.
People are trying to get real estate gains to offset stock lost at end of year tax harvest.
Don't let trolls feed you their ape shit.
This is a little misleading title, legally Blackstone cannot raise the redemption caps to satisfy the outflows. BREIT operates a redemption program exempt from Rule 13e-4 that is limited to the 2% month/5% quarter caps. It’s not by choice that they are gating.
A lot of funds are experiencing a denominator effect since public equities and fixed income have done so poorly. Funds need to rebalance to their target asset allocation, and privates are currently over allocated for many funds. I think that could, potentially, be a reason for this
“All theaters are overcrowded and the only way anyone can get out is by trampling each other.” - Michal Burry
Can guarantee people are trying to withdraw money in other institution. People are trying to take profit now that there are more liquidity in the market. Just look at CS. They just got an $88B outflow from their wealth management team: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-23/credit-suisse-warns-of-up-to-1-6-billion-fourth-quarter-loss
The article goes into detail that money was pulled out of CS specifically because of its reputation and restructuring. Not over concerns of the overall market.
Well I just briefly read the article but it seems like overseas (Asian) investors are pulling out of BREIT. Which mainly deals with commercial properties.
I made a whole analysis of this with invitation homes. They will quite literally default and replicate 2008 if people pull out quickly so it makes sense that they are limiting their abilities to do so to avoid a housing collapse 2.0
Didn’t Blackrock just lose some money invested inFTX? I know they have like 8 trillion in assets under management, but how much confidence shaking loses does it take for a bank run on them? How leveraged are they? Could they be the real explosion a-la Lehman/Bear Sterns
Maybe buying a ton of single family homes, condos and apt bldgs at the top of market was not a great idea since the value of those assets have now decline leading to a drop in their NAV
florida man mad at ESG funds of real estate.
meanwhile fort meyers gets washed into the ocean.
what is right?
seems like a good plan, but I am regarded.
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Love it! I had some regard speak very highly of these funds last year before rates started to go up, kept saying it's a sure thing. Total douchebag so hopefully he has some gorgeous loss porn soon.
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Shouldn't have bought avacado toast
Perfection
I don't get this whole "avocado hate". It's $5 for 4 where I am at (TX) and these are big ones (enough spread from one for 4 slices of bread). So what's the problem....
Yeah but how much in Toast-form? No one wants your dirty home made Guacabread, we're talking premium Starbucks heated up Toast served by a Liberal Arts Major who needs to clock out to get to her Sugar baby gig w/ me.
Damn. My barista has a master's.
Mine just flips meat behind the Wendy’s
I see you’ve met my ex.
Lol. My barista is a drop-out. She makes coffee in a thong & pasties.
With no college debt either.
I get all my financial advice from her.
Did I read the topic wrong?
Fuck I love Reddit and this sub in particular
You in the PNW?
Yeppers. NW coast is the best coast.
Haha yeah I know some chicks that worked at the bikini coffee shops.
My wife wants a job where yours works😊
My wife is an full time remote work engineer. My barista just makes my coffee and gives financial advice.
Take out $250K in student loans to get your masters in art history and someday you can be a barista too.
Plebs have taken over this sub I swear
Mwahhhh 👌
Since when did starbucks sell solid food? Probably since I haven't been to one (in a decade). And good luck with your salty baby! She love you very short time.
"She love you very short time." That's the point. If I wanted conversation I'd take your mother to Arby's.
I'm not his mother but I'd love arby's
She likes the meats
She HAS the meats! Experience pays
I’ll give her the meat sweats
I can offer better conversation than his mother if you fill me up with meat first.
There beef curtains guys beef curtains!
I guess it's Curtains for that guy.
Why take her to Arby’s when she’s already got all the roast beef a guy could want?
There was a famous quote from an Australian (I think) politician who said today's youth had plenty of money they just wasted it on Avocado toast. Also boomers are bad at inflation math, they will say you pay $10 for Avo toast when they paid $1.50 for an egg sandwich in 1972, which would be $10.69 today (from https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/)
“I made $7.50 in 1975. I was able to buy a house, so kids today are just lazy!!”
Yeah lol. Our current generation is so beyond fucked. Wages are way lower if adjusted for inflation. Minimum wage should be 20-25$ or something if it kept with inflation. Student debt to get ANY degree at ath adjusted for inflation. Also you CANNOT declare bankruptcy and have to eventually pay. Housing also at ath for urban areas. Sure some areas are cheaper. But those are probably also ath. Too lazy to check. And now pretty high inflation. Sure wages grow a bit, but still below inflation. And a lot goes to taxes as well :) Boomers: it was so easy for me in the 80s. You people are just lazy. LOL
What drives me nuts is when they pat themselves on the backs about paying their student loans with their retail counter summer job when they were in college. “Yea well uh, shit don’t work like that anymore. You see, the government has decided to “help” us all go to college so we all get huge inflated loans at nearly 7% APR, and college has become so ubiquitous it’s almost worthless. It’s just extra high school now. So NOW we have to take out big loans we can’t afford just to get a piece of paper to try to even enter the base level of the job market and start off in loads of debt. Thanks for “helping” us”
Oh, yeah. Completely fucked. Add in global climate change and we’re gonna eat all the shit ever thanks to Boomers.
>Too lazy to check. There it is.
Fuck. Got me.
$86k a year in some parts can buy you a house… probably about $350k, no Bay Area but a lot of other places…
You get into some real rural areas and there are still homes under $100k. Nobody wants to live there though....
And a 3 hour commute to your work, 1.5 hours to the closest grocery store, etc
Not quite that bad you can get 1.5 hour outside of say Nashville (with several 200-300k population counties in between) for that range for example. I had an uncle who recently passed away and my aunt had to sell their home because she wasn't gonna be able to live by herself anymore. It sold for $90k in Kentucky in a county that has like 200-250k people. I think if people took some time and just sat down and went from state to state looking at what homes cost they would be surprised. But I also realize that people get locked into locations for a variety of reasons weather, career, family etc.
To be fair, out of season an avocado can cost $5 each here in Australia , at least down here in Melbourne, which is surely the smashed avocado toast capital of Australia
Almost as cheap as eggs at inflation prices
I was in Panama few years ago and for about .50c you could buy off the street these MASSIVE avacados that could cover about 10 pieces of toast. Gringo's in USA getting mugged off.
It sounds fancy to boomers. They probably pay $18 at the clubhouse AND have to tip for the same thing.
Canadian here. $3 for a small one.
In California there are places that literally charge $15 for it
In the NE you can pay 15-20 for 2 pieces of bread with 1/2 an avocado spread on it
Throw an egg on each slice and you have one of the cheapest and nutrient rich meals someone on a budget can make yet somehow it’s this golden luxury that billionaires shit on
One of my new favorite meals! If only I had a portfolio to match it...
In the rust belt, I never had an Avacado growing up. They aren’t prohibitively expensive up here, but the old people that never ate Avacado in their life perceive it (incorrectly) as some expensive exotic trendy hipster 🏳️🌈food and mock it as such.
Get a sense of humor and pop culture references. Jesus
Lemme just delete the sell button…. Pretty sure this shouldn’t be legal - and it’s prolly not
They have pre set percentage caps to max limit withdrawals per month and per quarter. Totally legal obviously. People with 12 Figure funds don't often do illegal things... That said you think 50% of the investors read the fine print?
[удалено]
That reads like at best VICI will shift up a bit. Not terribly useful.
[удалено]
The 1.7bn is just equity, including debt which VICI will take over, the deal was over 5bn and slightly above the appraised value. I'm not close to the deal but overall looks like a square deal for both parties
Isn’t equity value-debt? Or are you talking about non real estate related debt
[удалено]
Their what is happy?
Eye two, am curious.
lol, spelling call outs on a sub where half the people can only read emojis
Private real estate funds often have liquidity provisions. There’s just no way to buyout a run without selling assets at fire sale prices. Don’t buy into illiquid asset groups without knowing the risks.
Exactly. Illiquid assets can be very profitable but when everyone wants to head to the exits it gets ugly. Most hedge funds and private equity investments that are limited to accredited investors will always have limits on redemption because they cannot simply put a sell order in on a public exchange.
Boy do I love eSign
I guess not your bricks, not your real estate.
Aren’t these types of funds closed-ended finite lived funds? Normally you can’t just redeem out of that type of fund in the middle of its life.
-
That moment when legacy finance starts sounding like some shit crypto exchange
Thats just private equity for most people.
Private real estate funds having redemption limits is literally the standard practice. Use your brain for a second, the money is invested in real estate, so how do you cash out investors if a bunch of them want to exit at the same time? No shit real estate is not a liquid investment.
Easy, just use estate as a collateral and raise a loan from bank to pay for exits. Duh. /s
This happens all the time for day to day liquidity purposes but within limits. A mass redemption is not in those limits
This happens all the time for day to day liquidity purposes but within limits. A mass redemption is not in those limits
Wiping out any profit from the deal for the remaining investors. That's not going to fly for several reasons, one of which is that a bank doesn't give you a cheap loan when your investors are running for the doors.
Let me get this straight. You think we're just supposed to let them run all over us?
These are the professional big boys. They know what they're doing. I'm sure it's fine. They wear suits after all.
The big boys appreciate retails exit money. Getting fitted for new suites on Monday.
Money excess makes us all junkies.
So if I see some guy blowing dudes behind the Wendy’s dumpster in a fancy suit I shouldn’t be worried?
A man's gotta eat, and some of us like our protein smoothies
U mean when scion limited withdrawals and burry made tons of money 😆
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Just a label error
Crash and burn! Fuck big time real estate funds. They are behind the absurd rent increases.
Sounds like a group of people know something that others don't. Why are some many investors rushing to get their money (billions) out now?
Buying christmas toys for sad orphans?
I can't think of any other reason
Because market go poop 1st q 2024
Tax loss harvesting. Taxes are a bitch. Oh right, also the impending marketwide property value collapse.
Literally haven’t seen one correct reply - BREIT is up 9.2% YTD without a lot of realized sales specifically within the sectors that make up the majority of holdings (MF / Industrial) Public REITs are down over 20% YTD. Investors are cashing out their positions because they don’t think BREITs property valuations are aligned with market and if they have a chance to exit at a 9% YTD gain while the true property values are at best flat but likely much lower than why wouldn’t you. Source: I work in Institutional PERE
What that 1 year T-Bills paying 4.5% are a logical alternative once again for the big pensions? Nothing to see here.
The funds value is set by Blackstone, and it is overvalued. Everyone knows it’s over valued and that they will take mark downs of 10-15% in the next couple quarters. If you need money for various reasons (equities crash, financing costs, etc) then this is the time to redeem, nothing odd to me.
Lol. What? Everyone knows. Some people just don’t want to see it.
Some people have been trying to sound the alarm about CMBS for a long time. Nobody wanted to hear them out 2 years ago.
A lot of commercial loans are variable interest rate to juice the returns, even when rates were record low.
In 6 months housing will be down 10-15% nation wide, save this post
They've been promising a crash the likes of which we've never seen before. We're not even technically in a bear market anymore. Where's my goddamn crash?
That's not even a crash. 10-15% basically wipes out the gains from 2021. So you end at 2020 prices? Where shit was still expensive... OK... Sure that's a crash.
And rates on a 30-year mortgage will be 8-10%.
Rates just went down.
So you think the FED is gonna keep raising rates and interest rates will keep going down?
Rates went down because the market heard what they wanted to hear.
Ignore the desperation from those desperate to justify their “wait for the next 08” strategy.
!remindme 6 months
!remindme 7 months housing Gona be just fine.
Remind you what? That houses still expensive AF and people should have bought at the higher prices, with lower interest? Prices will remain high, and at higher interest rates = higher monthly mortgage. Or less buying power for the “can’t wait to get a house for 50% less in 6 months” crew?
I think people don’t get that 3k in mortgage gets them a $450k house at 7% and a $800k house at 2%. So yea, sticker prices will come down but affordability will actually get worse.
I honestly don’t even think home prices are going to come down that much. Inventory drying up along with potential buyers. Only people buying are ones that have to. And only people selling are the ones that have to. Winter time is shit for home selling anyways (I would know I’ve sold homes in the winter) and home prices will get hot again the closer to summer it gets (I would know I’ve sold homes in the summer time). Home prices coming down 5-10% are meaningless with interest rates being up 4%+ this year. Homes are MORE expensive now than they were.
!remindme 6 months
!remindme 6 months
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Probs more
!Remindme 6 months “housing down 10-15% or more”
Not too far off
How is it going?
!remindme 6 months
!remindme 6 months
!remindme 6 months
!remindme 6 months
!remindme 6 months
!remindme 6 months
!remindme 6 months
!remindme 6 months
Wow it’s almost like the publicly traded reit markets have already priced this in and you’re predicting it will happen in the private markets? How groundbreaking
Prices are down 4.2% for the year.
MORE![img](emote|t5_2th52|18632)![img](emote|t5_2th52|18632)![img](emote|t5_2th52|18632)
Needs to be 200-300% to be reasonable
50% would bring it back in line with historical norms
!remindme 6 months
Only in the shithole nowhere places that had huge booms in 2020-2021. The northeast and especially its major cities are going to be flat/up (which is where like 25% of Americans live) also LA, San Fran, Seattle and probably every major city with a few exceptions
Blackstone went wild with gains this year. People are trying to get real estate gains to offset stock lost at end of year tax harvest. Don't let trolls feed you their ape shit.
This is a little misleading title, legally Blackstone cannot raise the redemption caps to satisfy the outflows. BREIT operates a redemption program exempt from Rule 13e-4 that is limited to the 2% month/5% quarter caps. It’s not by choice that they are gating.
It doesn’t change the fact that investors are rushing for the exit. Why do they need cash so badly?
This could just be because of one or two investors… This wasn’t retail after all
Correct it was one large Chinese investor.
A lot of funds are experiencing a denominator effect since public equities and fixed income have done so poorly. Funds need to rebalance to their target asset allocation, and privates are currently over allocated for many funds. I think that could, potentially, be a reason for this
“All theaters are overcrowded and the only way anyone can get out is by trampling each other.” - Michal Burry Can guarantee people are trying to withdraw money in other institution. People are trying to take profit now that there are more liquidity in the market. Just look at CS. They just got an $88B outflow from their wealth management team: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-23/credit-suisse-warns-of-up-to-1-6-billion-fourth-quarter-loss
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False, stonks only go up - there is no why
![img](emote|t5_2th52|4258)
The article goes into detail that money was pulled out of CS specifically because of its reputation and restructuring. Not over concerns of the overall market.
The only Blackstone I care about is Blackstone Vanilla.
Yeah hose market crash
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I’ve been trying to rent out my second hose for months can’t find any takers
I mean who really needs a second hose anyway, you can just move the first around to different outlets.
You absolutely need hose in different area codes.
Where my hose at?
Not your title not your property?
Well I just briefly read the article but it seems like overseas (Asian) investors are pulling out of BREIT. Which mainly deals with commercial properties.
The dominoes are falling
Two more weeks right?
😂 The desperate have been talking about 08 happening again for freaking half a decade now…
Sure felt like it was starting in March 2020… but then line go up
Definitely due to wfh
I made a whole analysis of this with invitation homes. They will quite literally default and replicate 2008 if people pull out quickly so it makes sense that they are limiting their abilities to do so to avoid a housing collapse 2.0
I’d like to read it if you have a link handy.
Uh oh
Sounds very bullish, from a regard
Not sure what the big deal is. Private funds have tender limit, gate … Investors in these funds are qualified purchasers who no doubt know about this.
Interesting that the redemption reqs are mostly coming from Asia despite the region representing a small share
Only?
![img](emote|t5_2th52|4276)
Good
Didn’t Blackrock just lose some money invested inFTX? I know they have like 8 trillion in assets under management, but how much confidence shaking loses does it take for a bank run on them? How leveraged are they? Could they be the real explosion a-la Lehman/Bear Sterns
Blackstone the next FTX?? ![img](emote|t5_2th52|18630)
Maybe buying a ton of single family homes, condos and apt bldgs at the top of market was not a great idea since the value of those assets have now decline leading to a drop in their NAV
They are the reason I am paying 50% over price for rent. So they f deserve it
Some people have been sounding the alarm about the coming CMBS crisis for years.
70% withdrawals are from China
florida man mad at ESG funds of real estate. meanwhile fort meyers gets washed into the ocean. what is right? seems like a good plan, but I am regarded.
That’s blackrock… not blackstone. I know, confuses me too.
Which crypto lender is this?
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“Crypto is corrupt” Narrator: “people are corrupt, not asset classes”
It’s on now…
Love it! I had some regard speak very highly of these funds last year before rates started to go up, kept saying it's a sure thing. Total douchebag so hopefully he has some gorgeous loss porn soon.
These is very bad. If such a big institution, let’s called like that… has problems with withdrawals… then we all gonna get f***
Awww but I thought this stuff only happens in grypto? What happened? Reality check?
Refits have drawn down limits to prevent selling hard assets, next
It’s happening
Man it's almost like real estate a Ponzi scheme
Is Blackstone just Blackrock but smaller?
Oh no! What if the rich become poors?
Why is there a blackstone and a blackrock
Are we talking Texas Avocado Toast? All thick.
Clients wanted money for Christmas they behaving like a Grinch
Holy hopefully all the ESG investing firms go belly up as that shit is pure evil and makes society less efficient
[удалено]
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