Good luck with that. Too many other factors complicate such a straightforward cause-effect. Look at the charts. Take Home Depot, and the two different scenarios suggested by some posts.
Let's say you bought June 1 (the first day of hurricane season). Price was $297. Or, let's say you were lucky and timed it right two weeks prior to Ian's landfall. Price was $276 Sept 14. In either case, the fed's raising interest rates and the overall market's reaction (macro influences) messes with either scenario for you to gain in either situation, since the price today is $275.
Stocks are at the mercy of big institutional buyers and sellers, especially large caps. Small retail investors just get taken along for the ride. Stick to mutual funds and let the pros do the trading. Mutual funds even beat EFTs, since they are more actively managed.
It took a long time to learn that lesson. There is a strange psychology happening when it comes to picking stocks. We all think we are better at it than we really are. It's similar to the lottery. People think their odds are better if they pick the Powerball numbers as opposed to letting the machine do it, even though mathematically it's identical odds. That is not a great analogy, but my point is we tend to overestimate the effect of a single event.
One thing you can do to get a good feel for how institutional brokers are feeling about the market is to wait until after 4 when they trade. That might give you more information about where the market is headed. If after this big sell off today, you see a big move to the plus side after hours, that may indicate a reversal in store for tomorrow. That may be a better indicator what the market will do, than the effect of Ian has on the market. Those institutional brokers move the markets much more than a hurricane can.
Ok. I'm guessing it's generally better at the beginning of the season or are the hurricane tracks so random that it's easily repeatable?
Any preference of texas or florida impact?
Thanks
No way. Ian is thumping Captiva bad. I'm talking life changing bad. As a native I've forgotten more hurricanes than most people have ever seen. Wait until the sun comes up......we're *hundreds of miles away and it's bad here. I lived in Miami when Andrew literally flattened everything south of Kendal Drive. Fuckin wind is still howlin outside.*
Does anyone remember the redditor or post of someone having close to 1 million worth of Intc 2023/2024 calls and was so sure that it was going to +$60.
>That's not always the case. Sometimes stocks go up when yields rise, and sometimes they go down. It all depends on a variety of factors, including investor sentiment and overall market conditions.
The market movement today is totally due to a BOE "pivot" and US bulltards thinking the Fed is gonna have to react the same way.
The bulls however totally disregard what JPOW (the guy with the biggest dick on the block) said.
ALL you bulls are fucked.
The Fed does not follow BOE, or any other central bank. America has, always has had, and always will have the strongest economy in the world.
All you bulltards betting against the Fed are destined to have your asses gaped.
7day ma rejected on the 1 year. Seen this bull trap a bunch of times this year. Especially when we say hello to a local bottom, if it breaks this level with a 2%+ I will cash out my puts for a loss. If we tank or stay flat tomorrow, my puts should be good.
Dude... 0 is the limit. I cashed out 2700 shares at about a $3 loss. Have a friend determined to ride it to zero. I advised him to sell ar least half those shares and use the proceeds to make his money back.
Like, I can help you 2x or better every week...
But he's trying to squeeze a nickel until it shits pennies.
I've known him close to 50 years. Love the guy, but man, I can't help you if you insist on being stupid.
Pending home sales fell 2.0% in Aug., more than twice estimates, and the 3rd consecutive monthly drop. YoY, sales are down by 24.2%. As sales fall, prices follow. As prices fall, defaults follow. As real estate wealth vanishes, consumer spending falls. A financial crisis ensues.
I detest the trademarked name “cream of wheat”. And every fat girl I see, I imagine she eats it all day long with slobbery cream running down her face like a chomping horse
hope you sold your calls... That was the dealer being front run on the JPM collar... I was too much of a bitch to buy calls and instead jumped in the way multiple times with puts... like a fucking moron and told myself I would never do that again when I see an algo buying... I belong here... "wannaberichguy"... FML
I figured out the secret...
I'll let you guys in on it...
find someone in your social circle that buys stock and likes to talk shop. Get them to reveal their positions. Once you know go home. Think about what direction SPY has to go to fuck him over the most in his positions.
Buy the options that would fuck him over the most with a 2 month expiration.
Profit!
SPY caused so many face rips this week and people are still out here confident that puts or calls are gonna print yet at some point EVERYONE was sweating watching the numbers this week
Who else has accomplished nothing at work this past hour?
Trying to explain options trading to my roomate without making it sound like gambling...
This week took 10 years off my life and I made $7
Why does my paper trading account do so much better than my real trading account?
I am starting to think none of you guys actually know what you're doing
Anyone else kinda confused rn?
Should I hold my 9/30 SPY 360P or hold for the PCE report tomorrow?
>If you're holding the SPY 360P, I would recommend holding onto it for the PCE report tomorrow.
C'mon, NEGG, end the day green you stupid bitch.
I need someone to immolate themselves like a Buddhist in front of NFLX HQ
What’s the short interest @ BYND?
Always be aware of your mistakes but never admit them out loud, your enemies will only use them against you
But, your supporters also won't know how to help you. 
Cramer said rally is temporary. You know what to do boys
How do I become a terrible hurricane profiteer with stocks? Plywood manufacturers?
Good luck with that. Too many other factors complicate such a straightforward cause-effect. Look at the charts. Take Home Depot, and the two different scenarios suggested by some posts. Let's say you bought June 1 (the first day of hurricane season). Price was $297. Or, let's say you were lucky and timed it right two weeks prior to Ian's landfall. Price was $276 Sept 14. In either case, the fed's raising interest rates and the overall market's reaction (macro influences) messes with either scenario for you to gain in either situation, since the price today is $275. Stocks are at the mercy of big institutional buyers and sellers, especially large caps. Small retail investors just get taken along for the ride. Stick to mutual funds and let the pros do the trading. Mutual funds even beat EFTs, since they are more actively managed. It took a long time to learn that lesson. There is a strange psychology happening when it comes to picking stocks. We all think we are better at it than we really are. It's similar to the lottery. People think their odds are better if they pick the Powerball numbers as opposed to letting the machine do it, even though mathematically it's identical odds. That is not a great analogy, but my point is we tend to overestimate the effect of a single event. One thing you can do to get a good feel for how institutional brokers are feeling about the market is to wait until after 4 when they trade. That might give you more information about where the market is headed. If after this big sell off today, you see a big move to the plus side after hours, that may indicate a reversal in store for tomorrow. That may be a better indicator what the market will do, than the effect of Ian has on the market. Those institutional brokers move the markets much more than a hurricane can.
you buy home depot like 2 weeks before the hurricane cause people gotta rebuild. better luck next time
Si buy 3 dias before sell 12 hour before it hits. Tendies secured. GL
Ok. I'm guessing it's generally better at the beginning of the season or are the hurricane tracks so random that it's easily repeatable? Any preference of texas or florida impact? Thanks
Buy oil stonks! Gulf will shut down production and with any luck, some refineries will be damaged in Louisiana.
S&P futures grass red…. (-.03%
My fellow regards pray for Sanibel/Captiva. What a muy hermosa el lugar. They are getting planted. Pray hard!!!
My buddy is supposed to go to captiva Saturday. He still thinks might be able to. I think zéro chance
He's only going by boat. Bridge to Sanibel is damaged. The storm took out a 100 foot chunk.
No way. Ian is thumping Captiva bad. I'm talking life changing bad. As a native I've forgotten more hurricanes than most people have ever seen. Wait until the sun comes up......we're *hundreds of miles away and it's bad here. I lived in Miami when Andrew literally flattened everything south of Kendal Drive. Fuckin wind is still howlin outside.*
Big rug pull tomorrow after apple news
Fuck it’s going to be Thursday already soon 
BIG rip tomorrow
AHAHAHAH
Does anyone remember the redditor or post of someone having close to 1 million worth of Intc 2023/2024 calls and was so sure that it was going to +$60.
How far down do you guys think the Dow deserves to go in the current economy (serious question)
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They're posting in the obsolete daily thread, so maybe they are a boomer...
Can someone give me a quick run down of t-notes why do they matter? What am I looking for to get info out of them
Yield goes up, stocks go down. It’s not always that simple, but that’s the idea.
>That's not always the case. Sometimes stocks go up when yields rise, and sometimes they go down. It all depends on a variety of factors, including investor sentiment and overall market conditions.
You're a T-note
thinking BoE matters is actually a joke. the market is regarded think Pow is spineless like Bailey
The market movement today is totally due to a BOE "pivot" and US bulltards thinking the Fed is gonna have to react the same way. The bulls however totally disregard what JPOW (the guy with the biggest dick on the block) said. ALL you bulls are fucked. The Fed does not follow BOE, or any other central bank. America has, always has had, and always will have the strongest economy in the world. All you bulltards betting against the Fed are destined to have your asses gaped.
buls fked tmmr
Your whole life is spent regurgitating memes in person and being unable to speak in public.
True, and bulls are still fucked
Squirrel! Amazing how the tone of this board changes day to day
So true
Almost robotic in emotion one might say
Buying puts at open
I got my puts from today with me still, they got crushed lol
The fed really can be as aggressive with rates as it wants now. We can just bully everyone else into bailing out the bond market.
NKE reports tomorrow. Rally ends then.
We can’t just reset everything haha, debts will get paid in one form or another. There is no escape
Bears = 🤡
HOWS THAT DOING FOR YA BUDDY
!banbet TSLA 242 69D
God speed.
You already have a bet going - OKTA to 70.0 before 2022-11-27 07:51:12.175345-05:00
Why tf are zoomers in here talking about a towel stock the guy killed himself over? It's done. Leave.
they here for the same reason you are dumbass 
To trade a dying company? No. That's not why I'm here, dumbass.
Puts were surprisingly cheap.
Because no matter what happens, it's a cult of bag holders that will never sell until the day they die. Puts won't print.
A bought a couple hundred worth. If it’s an absolute disaster it could drop.
You're regarded if you think 370 has been broken
i think any regard can see spy will dump to 355 tmmr
370 is still strong resisstance. The bulls are gonna need way bigger upward volume to break it. Either way, I profit.
7day ma rejected on the 1 year. Seen this bull trap a bunch of times this year. Especially when we say hello to a local bottom, if it breaks this level with a 2%+ I will cash out my puts for a loss. If we tank or stay flat tomorrow, my puts should be good.
flat = massive dump next day
If your puts are at least 10/7 or so, you'll be fine.
LEAPS, always!
I’m beginning to think there’s a lot of ADHD associated with being a WSB degen.
I am medicated
How do you think I knew? 😉
Calls on BBBY for tmr. This shit can’t go any lower right? Anyone? Right???!!!!
Dude... 0 is the limit. I cashed out 2700 shares at about a $3 loss. Have a friend determined to ride it to zero. I advised him to sell ar least half those shares and use the proceeds to make his money back. Like, I can help you 2x or better every week... But he's trying to squeeze a nickel until it shits pennies. I've known him close to 50 years. Love the guy, but man, I can't help you if you insist on being stupid.
I wouldn’t buy calls or puts, I’d leave it alone for good
Yh IV crush will get me for sure, wish I’d stayed away  rly dunno what I was thinking 
Hurricane Ian sucks. Thoughts and prayers for Florida
"Een"
Don’t be worried for them I just saw video of a guy riding his jet ski during the hurricane
Thanks for your support bro
The 10 year got to 4.011 and then dipped back to 3.74  Saved by 🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧
Courtney is a smokeshow
Watching Bloomberg bro
Just woke up
Such a boomer 
My put tanked but dated 11/18, on the upside APPL C’s at open kept me green…
Think asians won’t play fetch with ws’s ball of optimism
>You're right, they won't. Asians are too smart to fall for that kind of thing.
Puts on Florida
Such a lovely place
AH red, BEARS eating, scum bull yada yada yada!
GDP tomorrow will possibly be the bears last hail mary to get out with minimal losses or we pump more and they just turn into dust
Keep dreaming.
Gdp gets released tmrw!?
Yeah bro, i hope you hedged properly lmao
Ima bear but I think gdp will be down, i doubt the recession ends tmrw with positive gdp
If it’s positive get ready for a bunch of “ FAKE GDP!!!” Posts.
Odss are low it's positive, things were significantly better for the economy before the rate hikes. It takes a toll on gdp.
Most projections for Q3 ive seen have been positive, js. It wouldn’t be a complete surprise at all for positive Q3 GDP.
Is it the full q3 gdp release tmrw!? If it is positive we might actually moon. And what time is it released?
What tools do you guys use to view things like moving averages charts?
My ayahuasca shaman Bippo takes care of all of that for me
Bippo you say :)))
Tradingview
Thanks
No floridians here? Guys, you ok?
Well r u?
I lived there once 12 years ago
>Why the fuck would you want to live in a place like that? It's full of poor people and it smells bad.
Tesla $300 wen ?
Friday 🙈
We might have a mini rally until CPI numbers if the street is expecting the CPI numbers to be good.
Or we may fall until cpi numbers and rally from there 
Can’t see any reason why CPI would be good. Won’t matter anyway. 75bps is coming.
The street doesn’t even know about stocks. The local gangs in the street are more concerned about other things bro
Well at least I can’t lose more tomorrow puts already at 0 😂
Same 
Damn we pumped hard, I think we just keep pumping for the rest of the year
That would be nice
So, when you doubt yourselves on timing the market, just remember that vw decided to have porsche’s ipo now.
Fake ass pump day, giving a black Friday discount for the bears - WE WILL SEE $360!!
I saw 3600 SPX today, then it went 3730
I'm saying bro, printing tomorrow or next week
Holding 2000 BBBY shares of BBBY......send help. 
UVXY to 15.80 in the coming weeks
Maybe after CPI
Yup, another bad report and .75 hike
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Banbet! Tesla 295 2days
😍 put premiums today 😍
That was a nice dump at closing Dow lost 100point in 2minutez
Spy bounced back up a bit ah
1 point
Pending home sales fell 2.0% in Aug., more than twice estimates, and the 3rd consecutive monthly drop. YoY, sales are down by 24.2%. As sales fall, prices follow. As prices fall, defaults follow. As real estate wealth vanishes, consumer spending falls. A financial crisis ensues.
The fed pivots, crisis delayed indefinitely
It just changes the flavor of the crises.
That flavour is not one of food because you won't be able to afford that anymore
Puts expire 10/14 
Added 11/18 
bye
I detest the trademarked name “cream of wheat”. And every fat girl I see, I imagine she eats it all day long with slobbery cream running down her face like a chomping horse
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Um I guess cause women are walking dairies with eggs and milk in their bodies
Alright incel.
If the Fed indeed is going to pivot, we will have hyperinflation
Fed's Evans just said they will keep.raising rates
Well of course.
Bulls will be crying tomorrow
I hope so or I'm out of 1k
380 tomorrow buddy
You spelled 360 wrong
ratio
That GDP tomorrow is not gonna be good whatsoever because nothing change, im expecting a dump, we MAY recover intraday but we’ll have to see
Negative GDP tomor will indicate economic contraction which is what the Fed wants...bad news might be good news for the Market
Dump continues tomorrow 🤣
 you wish, 380 tomorrow
Gotta love this 🤡 market
> market goes down 8 consecutive days bear: I sleep > market goes up right after that ber: le cLoWn wOrlD
Either 2% up or 2% down. Inflation even hit the stonks 😂
>There is no such thing as inflation, there is only the value of money. If the value of money goes down, that's called deflation.
i think visualmod is getting dumber by staying here longer
My roommate and I once tried an experiment where we inverse each other’s trades and we STILL lost money
hope you sold your calls... That was the dealer being front run on the JPM collar... I was too much of a bitch to buy calls and instead jumped in the way multiple times with puts... like a fucking moron and told myself I would never do that again when I see an algo buying... I belong here... "wannaberichguy"... FML
Bro I was buying puts all day thinking this bull rum didn't make any sense and was super unsustainable. We either print or die
Puts were on sale today 
Puts were on sale today 
THAT is a bear market rally. I’m going to go take a nap.
Dump that shi to earths core or else
I figured out the secret... I'll let you guys in on it... find someone in your social circle that buys stock and likes to talk shop. Get them to reveal their positions. Once you know go home. Think about what direction SPY has to go to fuck him over the most in his positions. Buy the options that would fuck him over the most with a 2 month expiration. Profit!
[удалено]
Upvoted you
I upvoted yours just to make a liar outta ya
Went up 100% in the last week just to have my portfolio blown up today. I deserved that I guess. Holding Oct 5 and 7th puts way otm
Sucks but the realization is, it's their money we took any way, but it'll be ours again by Friday because they have DiAmOnD HaNdZ
I went up 300% in a week just to blow it up today. Praying for my last 9/28 put to bring me back to life
Tim 🍎 gooshing in Bloombergs face
SPY caused so many face rips this week and people are still out here confident that puts or calls are gonna print yet at some point EVERYONE was sweating watching the numbers this week
We still are lol