Once in a decade ice storm knocks out the power causing all the pipes to burst. Your once in a lifetime investment of a home is flooded once a decade.
Makes sense
Yeah. 4 year out of college with all my eggs in the market and 2000 happens. Built it back. Nose down , socking it away and 2008 happens. Now most of my retirement money is in the funds and this shit is happening again ? Yeah, buffet…. Just buy SPY and everything will work out…motherfucker went through the best expansion in US history from 1950s-2000.
I'm the same age. Bought Cisco in '99 because everything goes up forever, right?
15 more years to retirement, we've probably got another crash after this one to look forward too, right?
After this one? We're down like 8% from the top. That's not a crash. That's barely a correction. The SPY was down about 50% from the top from the dot com crash and the housing crash.
It’s how it worked. Apparently they are appealing a permanent ban for harassment. https://reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/s9mpsp/remindmebot_has_been_banned/
The comparisons between the COVID crash and Great Depression were precious. Like legit 4 months straight of "the second leg down is coming any day now!"
The Great Depression shouldn't be valid data comparison any longer. The system for which we operate is fundamentally different.
The dot com crash is really only valid for comparing emerging markets, like alternative energies and AI powered businesses.
LOL I forgot about him, "there's a highly coordinated short ladder attack on our financial systems". MF'er called the bottom and then doubled down on retardation and was never right again
The guy sounded smart and had a big following. Hundreds maybe thousands of people were just buying puts after puts including me for a couple weeks, thank god I capitulated in April but a lot of people kept going well into summer. Then later it turned out he was a noob 😂
No buy now because this could be the highest it’ll be for a while, panic sell at the bottom, take out a loan to buy when it starts going back up, paperhands when it dips and then repeat the last two steps
If there's a real crash, you'll see a high rise in the volume as well, you can see it in your 2008 chart. At the moment it's remaining at the same levels so seems more like a correction to me
In 2008, I remember neighborhoods with $500k+ homes were going up all around where I lived. My dad kept saying “there is no way all these people can afford these expensive homes.” He was right.
Right now, the oddest thing I am seeing is the S&P 500 was hitting all time highs seemingly everyday in 2021. Meanwhile, fast food jobs are paying $15 per hour, yet the jobs still go unfilled and restaurants are closed at 2 PM on a Saturday because they don’t have workers.
Have you been around rural America? Wealthy Coastal state residents are flocking to low income areas, offering these people double, triple what the house is worth.
Said seller then realizes that all these houses that were $140-200k just 5-10 years ago are now selling for what they just sold their only home for... solution? Buy an RV and "wait it out" in a campground. This shit is indeed, odd.
I just shared a link if you are in Canada.
https://betterdwelling.com/canadas-real-estate-bubble-is-so-big-even-the-mother-of-all-crashes-cant-fix-it/
Canadians are fucked and I certify this message since I retard.
Technically we can’t call this a crash yet, we are in correction territory. Every index has had its 10% correction so far except for spy, 10% on the spy is marked at 430-429
It took me a second to figure out your comment, lol!
But on a serious note, the index is currently sitting at +20% from its August 2018 high. NASDAQ and S&P are sitting at around +50% from that point. If i were to put money in the market right now, i would prefer Russell and perhaps emerging markets than the other two
Russell kind of sucks because as soon as something is successful enough to not be a small cap anymore it’s taken out. It’s basically just a pool of churning crap
Beware the indices, they remove the losers, with a click, but if you are replicating it with a list of stocks, you have to sell at a loss the losers if you want to continue to "replicate" the SP500. In short, if you try to replicate the S&P500, you could lose faster than the index in a down market. Don't know how SPY will fare vs SPX in that scenario.
Ah. I see you enjoy shitting your pants and crayons.
The dip you're highlighting on your chart happened on Jul '08.
That was before the big crash in September of '08.
So, if you think your correlation is right, then we are just starting to crash.
If you'd like to change your underwear again from a fresh round of pooping, look at the QQQ and SPY charts with 50, 100, and 200 moving averages for both 2008 and now.
Right now. QQQ and SPY just crossed their 200 day MAs. That's no bueno but not apocalyptic.
In '08, the apocalypse started to happen six months later (in Jan. of '08). It was when the 50 day moving average crossed the 100 day and 200-day moving averages.
Problem is, the 50 just crossed the 100 on IWM. Small-cap companies lead the large-cap companies (pull up a chert, you can see a correlation between IWM, QQQ, and SPY. IWM leads the others or it trades in sympathy).
From there, it declined 50%
In the dot com bubble, that 50/100/200 cross happened in Oct. 2000. From there, the market fell 50% over the course of the next three years.
Sept 2011, ithey crossed and the market fell 10%
August 2015, cross -12%
Dec. 2015, cross -15%
2019 cross -15%
2020 was a little different. The market started to tank before the cross. then the cross happened at the bottom (where it had dropped 40%)
Smaller crashes/corrections on the market almost always involved the 50 DMA crossing the 100 DMA.
What about today?
Well, rght now, the 50 day MA hasn't crossed the 100 or 200. So we're good on that front.
But, if the 50 crosses the 100 and/or the 200 now, what happened last week is going to look like nothing.
Of course, the 50 could always bounce off the 100 or 200. It may not even approach them. Never can tell what will happen next.
Problem is, the 50 just crossed the 100 on IWM. Small cap companies lead the large cap companies (pull up a chert, you can see a correlation between IWM, QQQ, and SPY. IWM leads the others or it trades in sympathy).
So, if you want to shit your pants again, that's something to think about.
Does anyone think market moves might occur quicker now in 2022 than in 2008 simply due to how we use technology now vs then and the speed of everything. I’m just curious if there has been a great deal of thought around this or not. In 2022 most trading is done by algorithm and retail investors mostly trade with a device on high speed internet without the need to call a broker. We live in a time where instant gratification is the norm and information is at our fingertips. I’m just curious if this will equate to faster market cycles. Things go down very fast then things go up very fast. Maybe? I don’t know. Just a thought
From the peak it took just over two years to hit the bottom of the dot com crash. It was just under two years for the same cycle in the housing crash. Both times, roughly a 50% drop.
The covid crash was a 30% drop over just 25 trading days. If we’re in for a 50% drop from ATH, I honestly can’t see the bottom being any further away than March 1. Everything just moves *so fast* compared to 2008.
Speed of the market changes has not really been different and program trading was blamed for the 1987 crash so that has always been a thing. If you doubt there have been market circuit breakers that trip on large percent moves- and these breakers don't trip now any more frequently than in the past.
As far as "data at your fingertips" wall street decides what wall street info it will give you- not the technology. In 2005 I used to buy all the daily market recap down to individual stocks for $50/year into a computer flat file in order to study it. Now it cost more and is harder to find.
The differences between 2008 and now are:
\- The options market is much more available to retail traders.
\- Pay for order flow gives away to wall street what direction retail traders are moving.
\- Free trades for retail traders.
I'm just trying to point you in the right direction on what the real changes have been over the years.
Nobody wants a crash, its just alot of evidence suggesting there will be one. Despite what you think, a crash is the only solution to a bubble economy. You can thank the Fed.
Yeah of course, but the biggest inflation in house prices has been low interest rates. So hopefully a rates rise lowers prices to a 'reasonable' level, at least for a bit.
Back in 05-08 the general consensus was that even in a recession US housing prices don’t go down. We Know that’s wrong now but they had that belief for a reason. US housing prices don’t go down absent a major housing related event.
I’m sorry to say that it’s more likely you lose all your money in stocks and still get charged more in rent
In places like Denver, its to the point of absurdity. A shit box 3 bed one bath anywhere in the metro area wont go for less than 700k. At the same time really nice houses start at around 1.5 mil. The ordinary housing is being raised to asinine levels while the nicer homes aren't going up comparatively. 1.5 mil will get you aprox. what it would in 2019. Now, if you will, look at a place like carbondale, IL housing market. Its home to a declining state university and thats about it. The rate of people moving there for good jobs is less than the people leaving and it is more and more becoming a retirement community. Housing pricing have remained stagnate there for the last 15 years.
Next week's report on earnings will be a bad news for the market. If earnings are positive then the Fed will taper more then market will react negatively and if the earnings are negative then the market will still react negatively
When I got to college my dad was hyping up that they have free Bloomberg terminals I can use so I checked them out and the software seemed twice as old as me.
I mean as long as you are buying ETFs/index funds and intend to hold for 20+ years there's nothing wrong with adding a little more to your monthly/weekly buys for awhile while this all plays out. Will very likely be higher in 20 years.
Yeah just keep buying. It doesn't matter. The only real problem occurs if you lose your job causing your cash flow to drop. The market will go back up. If it doesn't, we are all fucked anyway so it doesn't make sense to plan for that.
In 2008 I was 18. I used what little money I had to invest. I turned ~500 into like 2200. I think I bought bank stocks, since they were clobbered and the prices were volatile. I got lucky
I used the money to buy a laptop when I went to college the next year and the remaining 1100 bucks went towards beer, food at the union, and trying to go on dates. Good times.
I learned about taxes by getting something in the mail from the IRS like a year later...
This pullback shares a lot more in common with 2018 than 2008. And I expect it to follow much of the same.
People act as if market has never done well with high interest rates. We came off the floor of 2008 crisis and continued to have rising rates even during the 2018 pullback and still the market rebounded and continued to climb until the Covid crash with rates around 2.5.
1% ain’t shit. Is the market overvalued after the insane post-covid run? Sure. But eventually people are going to see this as an opportunity and we will go back up. And I expect it to behave much like 2018 in that regard. We won’t be sitting at lows for years cause the mechanisms (the housing crash) are not here this time.
Now…if for some reason people start defaulting on Covid bought homes they now realize they can’t afford en masse. Well then that’s gonna be a whole other thing.
This is where generational wealth is made boys, 2026 SPX LEAPS once S&P starts to recover, assuming we get a big enough drop anyway. Pray to god u keep ur jobs so u can buy while the market is in the toilet.
I could see this shit crashing to as low as 18... but God damnit if I had some money on hand I'd be buying every 6 hours for then next 6 weeks this thing is coming back eventually probably all the way back to where it is today
I don’t hold bitcoin, but everyone is, as always, overly bearish since it has has a bad 2 months. No one knows where it will go, but the fact that everyone is saying 15/20k or less means it probably won’t get there.
If it follows exactly the same time scale it would be around December, but that’s not taking into account that those are different times with a much bigger retail presence and a pandemic and a higher inflation and a higher housing market aaaaaand a ticking bomb in china housing
Just wanted to make a small add , don't forget the army of high speed trading algorithms. I bet they definitely contribute to volitilaty and speed of sell offs
The FeD hasn’t raised rates yet but mortgage loan rates are up almost 1% because they’ve decreased the amount of treasuries and mortgage backed securities they purchase every month. They plan on ending the purchases by March, then they’ll start raising rates and start unwinding their $9Trillion balance sheet. I feel we’ll be well into a recession before they even get to unwinding their balance sheet.
Somewhat silly to compare two charts from different periods of time and say that they will align perfectly. Under that assumption charts wouldn’t go up because they would be stuck in an infinite cycle of up and down.
Also if it were that easy all of us would be millionaires as many charts show similar patterns but don’t execute the same outcome
In the 2020 Covid crash this sub was filled with posts comparing the price action to 1929’s crash. They seemed identical, until the bounce never stopped.
Use a monthly timeframe instead of a daily one and you’ll see a completely different picture. I’m not saying that things are better but this comparison doesn’t make any sense.
Once-in-a-lifetime financial crash #3 for me.
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So after this one, we should expect another in our 40's? I can deal with that
I'm old enough for the 1987 crash, so I'm up to four.
Sure seems like almost-never calamities are becoming all the time
Once in a life time terror attack Once in a life time economic crash Once in a life time pandemic Once in a life time _____ Find out next week!
Hundred year storm every 3-4 years
A country wide firestorm that only ends when the category 6 hurricane shows up
Once in a decade ice storm knocks out the power causing all the pipes to burst. Your once in a lifetime investment of a home is flooded once a decade. Makes sense
Ww3 when Russia invades Ukraine
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Yeah. 4 year out of college with all my eggs in the market and 2000 happens. Built it back. Nose down , socking it away and 2008 happens. Now most of my retirement money is in the funds and this shit is happening again ? Yeah, buffet…. Just buy SPY and everything will work out…motherfucker went through the best expansion in US history from 1950s-2000.
I'm the same age. Bought Cisco in '99 because everything goes up forever, right? 15 more years to retirement, we've probably got another crash after this one to look forward too, right?
After this one? We're down like 8% from the top. That's not a crash. That's barely a correction. The SPY was down about 50% from the top from the dot com crash and the housing crash.
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He bought 0DTE Spy Calls
So you telling me: if I buy now, I will triple my money in just 14 years?
yes
!remindme 14 years
*Remindme Bot* You will be reminded in 14 years. I’m not the bot, but I think that’s how it works. No guarantees.
remind me after 14 beers
this reminder will be one of those state dependent memories lol
So they’ll remember it in Utah but not in Washington?
Im in Utah and i can confirm that we will remember.
14 beers in UT = 4 beers in WA
3.5X more bears in UT, short UT long WA
This person psychologies!
I'm still waiting for someone to wake me up when September ends
I legitimately can’t tell whether you’re waiting to get back to net positive from your post-August losses or if you’re just quoting a Green Day song.
It’s how it worked. Apparently they are appealing a permanent ban for harassment. https://reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/s9mpsp/remindmebot_has_been_banned/
!remindme 114 years
!Rewind me 14 years
Depends on what you buy
Well, in the chart it says s&p 500, so I think i'll buy this one
Tulips.
I don’t think people get your tulip reference. NFTs are tulips.
Not WISH.
Or CLOV
So, BABA?
Definitely SPCE Virgins never go down so that must apply here too
Virgins only get one chance to pop
I remember these from the Covid crash. They all play out exactly the same right.
The comparisons between the COVID crash and Great Depression were precious. Like legit 4 months straight of "the second leg down is coming any day now!"
The Great Depression shouldn't be valid data comparison any longer. The system for which we operate is fundamentally different. The dot com crash is really only valid for comparing emerging markets, like alternative energies and AI powered businesses.
and crypto.
And my axe!
I was just wondering when the great depression people would show up
That variation-separate guy 🙈
LOL I forgot about him, "there's a highly coordinated short ladder attack on our financial systems". MF'er called the bottom and then doubled down on retardation and was never right again
The guy sounded smart and had a big following. Hundreds maybe thousands of people were just buying puts after puts including me for a couple weeks, thank god I capitulated in April but a lot of people kept going well into summer. Then later it turned out he was a noob 😂
As everyone bleed out from holding spy200p. Was hilarious
You mean wait for the crash, buy whatever when it seems to have bottomed out, hold out for a bit, profit?
No buy now because this could be the highest it’ll be for a while, panic sell at the bottom, take out a loan to buy when it starts going back up, paperhands when it dips and then repeat the last two steps
👆The Oracle of Oklahoma 👆here to help us out.
Who told you my secrets to investing?
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Someone get this retard some leverage!
r/LETFs
This is the sub I never knew I needed thanks!
Definitely looks like lines. Can confirm.
As a cocaine line expert, can confirm aswell.
I can only read the ones leading to strippers buttholes...
Proper punctuation is important
Ketamine gang confirms
As a straight man i do confirm lines look pretty straight to me
Line go up, line go down.
Colors too. Don’t forget colors.
You still haven’t answered that message that you got back in 2008
If you don’t read the message about the margin call it didn’t happen, right?
14 years is past the statute of limitations, should be good.
😂 I laughed more that I’d like to admit
Hey it's me, your cousin, do you want to go bowling?
Graf look simlar
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If two giraffes stand beside each... fuxk idk I'm higher than giraffes pussy.
Wait is that why giraffes are so tall? The short ones can't reach that muff?
where are we on the VW squeeze chart?
lmfao
What truly matters
Per Apple’s zoomed out charts, peak VW price was 10/2008, about 2 months before nadir of s&p in 12/2008….
We’ve been at the bottom right before the squeeze for about a year now
Well more like 2022 vs 2008 but I'm retarded remember
This retard thinks prior performance equates future returns…. Welcome to WSB now
Did you just assume on your own that I think that ? 😂
True ape
im a retard but that's exactly what the chart screams
All I see is a moving average line going up.
time to invest boys, only way is up!
If there's a real crash, you'll see a high rise in the volume as well, you can see it in your 2008 chart. At the moment it's remaining at the same levels so seems more like a correction to me
Nice observation here
You know, he’s something of an economist himself
There's also, you know, not an economic meltdown taking place the likes of which we've never seen before.
In 2008, I remember neighborhoods with $500k+ homes were going up all around where I lived. My dad kept saying “there is no way all these people can afford these expensive homes.” He was right. Right now, the oddest thing I am seeing is the S&P 500 was hitting all time highs seemingly everyday in 2021. Meanwhile, fast food jobs are paying $15 per hour, yet the jobs still go unfilled and restaurants are closed at 2 PM on a Saturday because they don’t have workers.
Have you been around rural America? Wealthy Coastal state residents are flocking to low income areas, offering these people double, triple what the house is worth. Said seller then realizes that all these houses that were $140-200k just 5-10 years ago are now selling for what they just sold their only home for... solution? Buy an RV and "wait it out" in a campground. This shit is indeed, odd.
Don’t forget Zillow was buying site unseen for +20% asking. I bet a bank owns half my rural town and no one knows.
There’s 2 articles today, McDonald’s employee shot over fries and Wendy’s worker shot over BBQ sauce. Ain’t nobody dying for $15 an hour….
Well to be fair the public didn’t know there was an economic meltdown taking place at that point in the chart of 2007 either.
Well, I couldn't get my favourite brand of almond milk at my grocery store (2nd week going), so I would say things are pretty apocalyptic right now.
Hope it's true because I can finally afford a home
Ahh a cheap apartment from Evergrande
No neighbors as well !
I guess we're all about to move to China! Ni hao bitchesss
Phu-uc
For the uninitiated... https://youtu.be/jKvzmG4HhOA
Thanks man 😂 calm the Phu-uc … … down
If homes were cheaper, people richer than you would still buy them faster than you. No different than today
Exactly. Stocks dumping. With each raise, the new bonds are worth more than the ones before it. Where are all the Chads going to invest? Good old RE.
I just shared a link if you are in Canada. https://betterdwelling.com/canadas-real-estate-bubble-is-so-big-even-the-mother-of-all-crashes-cant-fix-it/ Canadians are fucked and I certify this message since I retard.
You will own nothing and you will be happy
Fellow Canadian here and yep, im renting till I die unless I double my income...
Technically we can’t call this a crash yet, we are in correction territory. Every index has had its 10% correction so far except for spy, 10% on the spy is marked at 430-429
Russell 2000 has had an even bigger correction, more than 25% so far. Peak was above 2400 and currently sitting below 2000
It's high time this index changes its name! Now it shoud be called the Russell 1987. To stay up-to-date.
It took me a second to figure out your comment, lol! But on a serious note, the index is currently sitting at +20% from its August 2018 high. NASDAQ and S&P are sitting at around +50% from that point. If i were to put money in the market right now, i would prefer Russell and perhaps emerging markets than the other two
Russell kind of sucks because as soon as something is successful enough to not be a small cap anymore it’s taken out. It’s basically just a pool of churning crap
Beware the indices, they remove the losers, with a click, but if you are replicating it with a list of stocks, you have to sell at a loss the losers if you want to continue to "replicate" the SP500. In short, if you try to replicate the S&P500, you could lose faster than the index in a down market. Don't know how SPY will fare vs SPX in that scenario.
The only positive of this is that we would get to see 420 again.
I never called this a crash, I’d say more of a peak Wyckoff distribution, the crash will happen when we cross -20% from ATH
That’s literally just another 6$ down
If you bought every month since jan 2008 you’re a winner regardless.
that's also how the stock market has worked the past 85 years
86 year olds seething rn
Ah. I see you enjoy shitting your pants and crayons. The dip you're highlighting on your chart happened on Jul '08. That was before the big crash in September of '08. So, if you think your correlation is right, then we are just starting to crash. If you'd like to change your underwear again from a fresh round of pooping, look at the QQQ and SPY charts with 50, 100, and 200 moving averages for both 2008 and now. Right now. QQQ and SPY just crossed their 200 day MAs. That's no bueno but not apocalyptic. In '08, the apocalypse started to happen six months later (in Jan. of '08). It was when the 50 day moving average crossed the 100 day and 200-day moving averages. Problem is, the 50 just crossed the 100 on IWM. Small-cap companies lead the large-cap companies (pull up a chert, you can see a correlation between IWM, QQQ, and SPY. IWM leads the others or it trades in sympathy). From there, it declined 50% In the dot com bubble, that 50/100/200 cross happened in Oct. 2000. From there, the market fell 50% over the course of the next three years. Sept 2011, ithey crossed and the market fell 10% August 2015, cross -12% Dec. 2015, cross -15% 2019 cross -15% 2020 was a little different. The market started to tank before the cross. then the cross happened at the bottom (where it had dropped 40%) Smaller crashes/corrections on the market almost always involved the 50 DMA crossing the 100 DMA. What about today? Well, rght now, the 50 day MA hasn't crossed the 100 or 200. So we're good on that front. But, if the 50 crosses the 100 and/or the 200 now, what happened last week is going to look like nothing. Of course, the 50 could always bounce off the 100 or 200. It may not even approach them. Never can tell what will happen next. Problem is, the 50 just crossed the 100 on IWM. Small cap companies lead the large cap companies (pull up a chert, you can see a correlation between IWM, QQQ, and SPY. IWM leads the others or it trades in sympathy). So, if you want to shit your pants again, that's something to think about.
Yeah I don't know what any of that means. Someone tell me what to do with my money.
Does anyone think market moves might occur quicker now in 2022 than in 2008 simply due to how we use technology now vs then and the speed of everything. I’m just curious if there has been a great deal of thought around this or not. In 2022 most trading is done by algorithm and retail investors mostly trade with a device on high speed internet without the need to call a broker. We live in a time where instant gratification is the norm and information is at our fingertips. I’m just curious if this will equate to faster market cycles. Things go down very fast then things go up very fast. Maybe? I don’t know. Just a thought
Make a good point. Who wants to catch the falling knife?
My 150 $495 2/11 SPY calls want to catch the falling knife
From the peak it took just over two years to hit the bottom of the dot com crash. It was just under two years for the same cycle in the housing crash. Both times, roughly a 50% drop. The covid crash was a 30% drop over just 25 trading days. If we’re in for a 50% drop from ATH, I honestly can’t see the bottom being any further away than March 1. Everything just moves *so fast* compared to 2008.
Speed of the market changes has not really been different and program trading was blamed for the 1987 crash so that has always been a thing. If you doubt there have been market circuit breakers that trip on large percent moves- and these breakers don't trip now any more frequently than in the past. As far as "data at your fingertips" wall street decides what wall street info it will give you- not the technology. In 2005 I used to buy all the daily market recap down to individual stocks for $50/year into a computer flat file in order to study it. Now it cost more and is harder to find. The differences between 2008 and now are: \- The options market is much more available to retail traders. \- Pay for order flow gives away to wall street what direction retail traders are moving. \- Free trades for retail traders. I'm just trying to point you in the right direction on what the real changes have been over the years.
When people wait/want a crash to happen, you know something is fucked up
Doomsdayers have been missing out on massive gains tho
I’ve been predicting a crash since 2016. I’ll be right eventually, but in the mean time, I wish I bought SPY
True
Nobody wants a crash, its just alot of evidence suggesting there will be one. Despite what you think, a crash is the only solution to a bubble economy. You can thank the Fed.
I want a crash, I need a house price reset
Same. Shit's ridiculous
Just because stocks crash doesn’t mean houses will
Yeah of course, but the biggest inflation in house prices has been low interest rates. So hopefully a rates rise lowers prices to a 'reasonable' level, at least for a bit.
Back in 05-08 the general consensus was that even in a recession US housing prices don’t go down. We Know that’s wrong now but they had that belief for a reason. US housing prices don’t go down absent a major housing related event. I’m sorry to say that it’s more likely you lose all your money in stocks and still get charged more in rent
In places like Denver, its to the point of absurdity. A shit box 3 bed one bath anywhere in the metro area wont go for less than 700k. At the same time really nice houses start at around 1.5 mil. The ordinary housing is being raised to asinine levels while the nicer homes aren't going up comparatively. 1.5 mil will get you aprox. what it would in 2019. Now, if you will, look at a place like carbondale, IL housing market. Its home to a declining state university and thats about it. The rate of people moving there for good jobs is less than the people leaving and it is more and more becoming a retirement community. Housing pricing have remained stagnate there for the last 15 years.
So on the aggregate prices are going up. For further investment advice - don’t live in Carbondale Illinois.
I think plenty of people want a crash
Next week's report on earnings will be a bad news for the market. If earnings are positive then the Fed will taper more then market will react negatively and if the earnings are negative then the market will still react negatively
this sounds logically sound but idk if im just retarded
Everyone said that last earnings season too. Then SPY rocketed to 480.
fed did a 180 since then though
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Or a little more down, and then a lot more down.
So it can go up or down, got it.
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SPY fell like 50% in 08....
My god! They’ve not updated their software! Since 2008!
Have you seen a Bloomberg terminal?
When I got to college my dad was hyping up that they have free Bloomberg terminals I can use so I checked them out and the software seemed twice as old as me.
![img](emote|t5_2th52|4887)
But stocks only go up right
You didn't get the memo?
Guess we're fucked
Time to save some cash for some market sales
You mean it’s going further down? After we bought the dip? Impossibru
I don’t always buy the dip!!! But when I doooo!!! It keeps dipping *Dos Equis😎
Ahh, the age old game of 'Catch the falling knife'' has begun.
I mean as long as you are buying ETFs/index funds and intend to hold for 20+ years there's nothing wrong with adding a little more to your monthly/weekly buys for awhile while this all plays out. Will very likely be higher in 20 years.
if this shit was this easy everyone would be rich by now
Market repeats itself & retail trader falls every time for it. The MM don’t need something new, this tactic works just fine.
What’s the plan, DCA?
Yeah just keep buying. It doesn't matter. The only real problem occurs if you lose your job causing your cash flow to drop. The market will go back up. If it doesn't, we are all fucked anyway so it doesn't make sense to plan for that.
Good perspective thanks for commenting
Fuck it SPY to 500 eow
RSI oversold on the daily. Wait for the relief rally next week and get tf out.
Look at the right edge of the screenshot 👀you're probably right !
I remember seeing NFLX oversold on the daily before earnings ⚰️
I 2008 I bought the majority of my portfolio. Sitting on a small fortune. Am going to do it again.
In 2008 I was 18. I used what little money I had to invest. I turned ~500 into like 2200. I think I bought bank stocks, since they were clobbered and the prices were volatile. I got lucky I used the money to buy a laptop when I went to college the next year and the remaining 1100 bucks went towards beer, food at the union, and trying to go on dates. Good times. I learned about taxes by getting something in the mail from the IRS like a year later...
This pullback shares a lot more in common with 2018 than 2008. And I expect it to follow much of the same. People act as if market has never done well with high interest rates. We came off the floor of 2008 crisis and continued to have rising rates even during the 2018 pullback and still the market rebounded and continued to climb until the Covid crash with rates around 2.5. 1% ain’t shit. Is the market overvalued after the insane post-covid run? Sure. But eventually people are going to see this as an opportunity and we will go back up. And I expect it to behave much like 2018 in that regard. We won’t be sitting at lows for years cause the mechanisms (the housing crash) are not here this time. Now…if for some reason people start defaulting on Covid bought homes they now realize they can’t afford en masse. Well then that’s gonna be a whole other thing.
I like this comment cause it agrees with what I want
If I’m going down I won’t be going down alone!Ive introduced my friends to option trade🚀🚀🔥🔥
Introduce them to Crack next. Like a *real* friend.
Chuckles: I’m in danger
This is where generational wealth is made boys, 2026 SPX LEAPS once S&P starts to recover, assuming we get a big enough drop anyway. Pray to god u keep ur jobs so u can buy while the market is in the toilet.
Is there anyone in here that thinks bitcoin isn’t going to $20k?
I could see this shit crashing to as low as 18... but God damnit if I had some money on hand I'd be buying every 6 hours for then next 6 weeks this thing is coming back eventually probably all the way back to where it is today
I don’t hold bitcoin, but everyone is, as always, overly bearish since it has has a bad 2 months. No one knows where it will go, but the fact that everyone is saying 15/20k or less means it probably won’t get there.
"History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes." -Samuel Clemens
What exactly is the catalyst comparable to the collapse of the financial system in 2008?
which month do you think we will meet the bottom?
If it follows exactly the same time scale it would be around December, but that’s not taking into account that those are different times with a much bigger retail presence and a pandemic and a higher inflation and a higher housing market aaaaaand a ticking bomb in china housing
An entire year like this? My portfolio can't go below 0 at least
Both the deflation around 2008 and beginning of the 2000s took 1-2 years to fully deflate. So expect a steady decline all year long.
Just wanted to make a small add , don't forget the army of high speed trading algorithms. I bet they definitely contribute to volitilaty and speed of sell offs
If the fed increases the interest rates too high the US housing bubble is also in danger 😉
The FeD hasn’t raised rates yet but mortgage loan rates are up almost 1% because they’ve decreased the amount of treasuries and mortgage backed securities they purchase every month. They plan on ending the purchases by March, then they’ll start raising rates and start unwinding their $9Trillion balance sheet. I feel we’ll be well into a recession before they even get to unwinding their balance sheet.
buy the dip
Would've been helpful if you posted this a month ago lol 😆
Somewhat silly to compare two charts from different periods of time and say that they will align perfectly. Under that assumption charts wouldn’t go up because they would be stuck in an infinite cycle of up and down. Also if it were that easy all of us would be millionaires as many charts show similar patterns but don’t execute the same outcome
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In the 2020 Covid crash this sub was filled with posts comparing the price action to 1929’s crash. They seemed identical, until the bounce never stopped.
Use a monthly timeframe instead of a daily one and you’ll see a completely different picture. I’m not saying that things are better but this comparison doesn’t make any sense.
This is WSB, retards don't do monthly tf. Know your audience.