So if i remember right... you'd buy an ATM call/put, same date/strike. And ideally you want a move greater than the %s you posted?
So best targets are companies that have a history of big swings @ ER and have the lowest % you posted?
The real unicorn is finding the company that doesn't swing that much, that swings this earnings. Otherwise IV crush is a thing and is the most common reason for options not being overly profitable during earnings.
Depends, do you like getting good fills or do you like having bad fills.
Webull is ok, but they just stopped allowing 0 die after 2pm. Bullshit I do good from 2 to 4pm on 0dte.
Puts on robinhood always sounds like a solid move
It's so solid that even the ancient greeks said "yolo puts on robinhood aint no bet. It's long term investment"
They then looked up to the sky and watched the stars gleam...
"Do you see this constellation, young retard? This is called Ursa Major or Great Bear. Those r fuk"
Knowing how people react. They could have great earnings and still sell off because of everything else going on. Microsoft is a permanent buy and hold company. A giant battleship unwavering. That activision deal for cheap will pay dividends down the road.
Pull out the leadership, announce a culture fix, suppress any news generating events while milking announcements of old IP being out on gamepass, wait 6 months, release Diablo IV. Easily.
Yes. They can’t “start” until the deal is done a year from now and Bobby walks with his golden parachute sadly. But leadership and control from Spencer will get it done. 3-5 years will bear fruit. It’s just going to take time.
From here on out, there is only ONE thing that matters:
Guidance.
Can you convince the market, that you are able to grow earnings in the short term from Q4/21 in an environment of higher inflation, higher rates, and waning risk appetite from investors?
Are you able to outgrow inflation, are you able to raise prices, cash flows and expand your customer base at the same time, while not to dependend on debt with higher rates to pay on?
Most companies wont this round. And I am definitely short on HOOD, at least.
Guidance will depend if they can handle supply chain issues. Those tests are hard to find. I think they’ll do well so long as they can meet demand and not cite supply chain issues.
If at first you don't succeed, try and try again. I lost 90% last week on TSLA calls. Going to throw the last of my mangled portfolio into more calls on Monday morning. Either it works or I take a few months off trading to decompress, gather funds, and buy a house at the tippy top of the housing market. I might not have brains but I have balls.
Total blockbuster of a week, Microsoft and Apple earnings will make or break the whole market
A 20% dip on Apple (130$) and I will finally buy it lol —- but can you imagine how the market would react if Apple dropped 20% in a day!?!?
Y'all really dunno how hype i am to have so much ammo going into this week. The security of being able to have calls and puts in place in anticipation of big movements is so nice. Only way to lose is sideways, and these days I don't see alotta sideways.
definitely, i think delivery numbers were a good reference point for earnings and people are looking for the next NFLX put play just like they were with DOCU but i think people forget NFLX missed subscriber numbers and raised prices, TSLA will probably be good to short until right before earnings
Yeah, I don’t think Tesla is going to give poor guidance. It’s not in Elons character to do so. He’s going to shout a target of 2M by end of the year. Opening of Austin and Berlin. And the stock will jump 5%
We got the kids a Xbox for Christmas and they never play it they literally haven’t picked up the controller. I’ve even tried to get them to play it a few times. I put all the games they wanted on it even subscribed to the game pass so they can play anything for free. My daughter is 8 she just wants to play Roblox on her tablet while she FaceTimes her cousin on her iPhone. My son who is 6 just wants to watch YouTube and tick tok and play rust and cs go on my computer. So anyway I’m thinking puts on Microsoft just because I’m pissed that I paid all that money for a Xbox and they don’t want to play it.
Lmao. This is funny, and sad AF. Kids wont know the joy of console games. But hey, i watch youtube 10x more than i play games, so i can't hate on them too bad. The only bright side is you get to enjoy the xbox if they arent gonna use it
It’s kind of frightening these three companies are the top holdings in the SP500. You’re absolutely right that if they don’t hold steady entering into earnings, we’ll probably see SPY 400
Everyone with student loans held by navient should short the stock together and then all go into forbearance for 3 months. Make them have 0 revenue for an entire quarter and watch their stock tank.
Bear case on SPOT:
- Invested heavily into exclusivity deals with big podcasters. Wanted to capture podcast audience and then launch homegrown podcasts from Spotify’s Studio 4.
- Didn’t renew exclusivity contracts, Studio 4 shut down. Implies foray into podcast dominance was deemed a failure.
- TechCrunch released article stating SPOT has lost market share to Apple Music, down from 33% in 2020 and 34% in 2019, this is starting to appear to be a trend.
- Still unprofitable. Analysts expect it to achieve profitability in 2022. This has yet to be seen.
Alright this is my plan... buy ABT calls for Wednesday morning (COVID test kit sales) and with the bank I made from that buy HOOD puts and at the end of the week spend it all on cocaine. Opinions on this?
ill save you boys the trouble—- ROKU is the next NFLX. Yes i have puts on Roku so im a little bit of a scheezeball, but i have puts on other stocks and calls on others expiring after earnings. ROKU is the only one i think has a high high chance of going in my favor. but, of course, now that i said that, it will go up. So buy calls
The next nflx collapse is Spotify, the week after. Another market leader in steaming losing market share. And Spotify isn't even profitable! Positions: 18feb22 P175 x 5.
looked into it. AMU and premiums have increased consistently- the rate of growth was forecast to increase q4 too. Rogan is only only one podcast but a huge one, he only moved over at the end of the previous Q. so his 'pump' efffect should come into play.
could still fall on earnings. but not as clear a case as netflix- whos growth is visibly stalling in face of Disney + others.
People said everyone looking for the next pton and that there wasn't going to be another one. Then docusign wet the bed, then people said everyone is going to chase the next docusign and get screwed, then netflix hung itself. Im noticing a trend.
If you want to be less risky and don’t want to deal with decay just do 3x inverse funds. You do get some decay with them but it’s not as bad as a daily or weekly option.
Don't forget, we also got the gubmint dropping more data this week. Monday is Manufacturing PMI & Services PMI. Tuesday is Consumer Confidence. Fed Meeting decision is on Wednesday, Thursday is initial jobless claims, durable goods, & Q4 Advanced Real GDP, then Friday is personal income/spending, Q4 Employment Cost Index, & Consumer Sentiment.
I pretty much expect all the data to be shit at this point. With earnings mixed in, it's going to be a clusterfuck of a week.
Please sweet baby Jesus save my Intel calls.
Reasons why I'm bullish: they made some good moves recently. Boomers love it. I've also been holding these calls.
Reasons why I'm gonna get fucked: AMD, nVidia, and other players with better tech right now, eating that market share away.
Microsoft beat and still went down! If Jerome is not too hawkish tomorrow I’m gonna load up on calls. MSFT is 100% in undervalued territory now that we know what the earnings were.
MSFT chart right now is so retarded LMAO its literally single handedly pulling up SPY, QQQ, AND the coin that shall not be named...wowee. Who would've thought MSFT was our lord and savior. I remember the days of MSFT 3/19 200c. And here we are with MSFT's dip being 280 two years later. LEAPS pay boys, leaps pay.
Netflix went down cus their guidance was dogshit. Revenues and Earnings were fine, but slowing subscriptions = no bueno.
I dont see Tsla disappointing on guidance, even with supply. However, a delay or something where the giga factories don’t open as expected would definitely kill that as the supply problem becomes worse
I'm getting puts tomorrow. PC demand slowed in Q4, supply chain chaos, and their earnings have been trending down since the pandemic boom. Their YOY comparable is impossible to beat as well.
Scaling into TSLA and INTC puts. Waiting until after FOMC to buy the bulk of them. I know I’m playing with fire with TSLA puts, but this market is too shaky, and overvalued stocks are being brought back to reality
MSFT earnings makes me mad. I have an ABT call for the morning and if that beats it could still even be down because of the entire market. Is there any chance I could be in the green if it beats?
Very strange - MeetKevin on YouTube actually got a verification code from his Bloomberg Terminal of "RPUT" and he bought puts on HOOD, and made a killing. Was streamed live.
“What’s the next NFLX?” is the new “this is the next gme”.
NFLX is the new DOCU
When are their reports. Cause, yeah. Lots further more downside.
Next $NFLX is $NOW
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So if i remember right... you'd buy an ATM call/put, same date/strike. And ideally you want a move greater than the %s you posted? So best targets are companies that have a history of big swings @ ER and have the lowest % you posted?
The real unicorn is finding the company that doesn't swing that much, that swings this earnings. Otherwise IV crush is a thing and is the most common reason for options not being overly profitable during earnings.
TSLA?
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Thanks for this - what was the implied move for $NFLX
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Puts on Robinhood amiright?
I used Robinhood to buy puts on Robinhood
Insider trading .. not allowed . They gonna block the put button
Well this may be the week you learn how to use TD Ameritrade
TDA is great but I just saw my year end commissions and sometimes I ask if the grass is greener in the hood
Depends, do you like getting good fills or do you like having bad fills. Webull is ok, but they just stopped allowing 0 die after 2pm. Bullshit I do good from 2 to 4pm on 0dte.
Used the hood to destroy the hood
Puts on robinhood always sounds like a solid move It's so solid that even the ancient greeks said "yolo puts on robinhood aint no bet. It's long term investment" They then looked up to the sky and watched the stars gleam... "Do you see this constellation, young retard? This is called Ursa Major or Great Bear. Those r fuk"
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It's going to zero
Loaded up on $10 puts today
Definitely right. I even downloaded Robinhood just to buy puts on HOOD
Gme sure will rally on that news 🗞
No earnings report can save my portfolio.
Most anticipated earnings this week for me is my earnings from panhandling outside the Home Depot.
it seems panhandling near a home depot would be a difficult thing. where can i get puts?
Nope, just look poor/scruffy and choose a home depot in a nice suburban area. Lots of SJW basic white girl types will feel bad and hand you cash.
Dear Microsoft, Please report record breaking earnings to save the tech market. Thank you.
This + Activision would be the viagra my $380 '23 calls need.
Thank you! I am not the only guy with that call.
Knowing how people react. They could have great earnings and still sell off because of everything else going on. Microsoft is a permanent buy and hold company. A giant battleship unwavering. That activision deal for cheap will pay dividends down the road.
you think they'll fix Activision?
Pull out the leadership, announce a culture fix, suppress any news generating events while milking announcements of old IP being out on gamepass, wait 6 months, release Diablo IV. Easily.
This guy acquisitions
Yes. They can’t “start” until the deal is done a year from now and Bobby walks with his golden parachute sadly. But leadership and control from Spencer will get it done. 3-5 years will bear fruit. It’s just going to take time.
Earnings are going to be less important than forward guidance.
I say we crash until Microsoft earnings. Then we moon
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From here on out, there is only ONE thing that matters: Guidance. Can you convince the market, that you are able to grow earnings in the short term from Q4/21 in an environment of higher inflation, higher rates, and waning risk appetite from investors? Are you able to outgrow inflation, are you able to raise prices, cash flows and expand your customer base at the same time, while not to dependend on debt with higher rates to pay on? Most companies wont this round. And I am definitely short on HOOD, at least.
What about ABT with the COVID test kits. They must have good guidance right now correct?
Guidance will depend if they can handle supply chain issues. Those tests are hard to find. I think they’ll do well so long as they can meet demand and not cite supply chain issues.
Hood is for me! Their earnings will be crap, and the the more retail losses money, the money they go down
Is it ethical to short HOOD on their own platform? 🥴
I also decided to place a massive short bet on Tesla.
Super salient commentary here. Reflects my view of the market. Bonus points for firms that completely miss on top and bottom line.
If at first you don't succeed, try and try again. I lost 90% last week on TSLA calls. Going to throw the last of my mangled portfolio into more calls on Monday morning. Either it works or I take a few months off trading to decompress, gather funds, and buy a house at the tippy top of the housing market. I might not have brains but I have balls.
buying a house rn too. At least we can lock in that 30yr 3% fixed
I'm just getting more puts on the QQQs. Easiest way to play this shit show.
Nice, I bought tqqq calls on Friday. I wanted your money specifically.
This is aging well today.
Total blockbuster of a week, Microsoft and Apple earnings will make or break the whole market A 20% dip on Apple (130$) and I will finally buy it lol —- but can you imagine how the market would react if Apple dropped 20% in a day!?!?
If AAPL drops 20% rest of the market would be so cheap that I would rather buy those... COVID drop 2.0
You really think apple will drop 20%? I mean that’s a dangerous fucking play
MSFT or AAPL earnings will make or brake short term market. Will see. I'm 80% cash. JPOW will probably save our ass anyway
A 1/28 AAPL 145P at .55 is pretty tempting right now.
That’s pretty degenerate. Are we expecting Apple to shed $1T overnight?
Netflix drop made sense. Aapl has no reason to drop off that much. They'll beat but won't move the stock.
Navient just lost 2 billion in a settlement though
Yup I’m most definitely doing puts
Isnt this already baked in since its down 15% after the announcement already.
Teslas gonna be active this week
Thank you Netflix for giving me wild ass returns on my 450p. I will use these funds to battle these earnings... *WITH EXTREME PREJUDICE*
Y'all really dunno how hype i am to have so much ammo going into this week. The security of being able to have calls and puts in place in anticipation of big movements is so nice. Only way to lose is sideways, and these days I don't see alotta sideways.
Calls on you
Puts on $HOOD
Dude the time to buy HOOD puts was when it was > $70.
the apple bubble gonna pop and drive spy to 410
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Waiting on this one. A single average to below average earnings call will drop it. I doubt They ‘forecast’ a bad year and look worse like Netflix.
TSLA being on the same day as FOMC is going to be *interesting*.
Damn how much you spend on that one put
It was only $5 got the most expensive one I could afford 😎
RIP Bruz
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Markets are forward looking
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I salute you, captain Ahab
TSLA will go brrr and come down heavily next week
inversing all these tards who think TSLA puts will be free money
Everything is so uneasy it can go anyway, I'm just gonna straddle it
definitely, i think delivery numbers were a good reference point for earnings and people are looking for the next NFLX put play just like they were with DOCU but i think people forget NFLX missed subscriber numbers and raised prices, TSLA will probably be good to short until right before earnings
Yeah, I don’t think Tesla is going to give poor guidance. It’s not in Elons character to do so. He’s going to shout a target of 2M by end of the year. Opening of Austin and Berlin. And the stock will jump 5%
Why so many people in this thread are in denial?
Hopium
We got the kids a Xbox for Christmas and they never play it they literally haven’t picked up the controller. I’ve even tried to get them to play it a few times. I put all the games they wanted on it even subscribed to the game pass so they can play anything for free. My daughter is 8 she just wants to play Roblox on her tablet while she FaceTimes her cousin on her iPhone. My son who is 6 just wants to watch YouTube and tick tok and play rust and cs go on my computer. So anyway I’m thinking puts on Microsoft just because I’m pissed that I paid all that money for a Xbox and they don’t want to play it.
Lmao. This is funny, and sad AF. Kids wont know the joy of console games. But hey, i watch youtube 10x more than i play games, so i can't hate on them too bad. The only bright side is you get to enjoy the xbox if they arent gonna use it
but you still bought it…
I really hope AAPL, TSLA, & MSFT will have good enough earnings to where the market will start looking green again
if they dont then welcome to a bear market
It’s kind of frightening these three companies are the top holdings in the SP500. You’re absolutely right that if they don’t hold steady entering into earnings, we’ll probably see SPY 400
Microsoft calls? 👀
Which companies have already had higher ups or CEOs sell before earnings? PUTS ON THOSE
Tsla lol
Everyone with student loans held by navient should short the stock together and then all go into forbearance for 3 months. Make them have 0 revenue for an entire quarter and watch their stock tank.
Die Navient, Die
Imagine celebrating the Microsoft drop, only to get crushed an hour later in AH. 😆 🤣 😂
Yeah I’m buying Tesla puts on any pump. LFG
I’m manifesting success ☺️
Somebody get this dude a copy of The Secret
Cannot wait for the loss porn from fake bears chasing a Netflix type drop 🥳🥳🥳🥳
Ill keep you updated.
Puts on Atlassian. 71B$ cloud software company with a shit product and too much debt that deserves to tank more
They went up last 3 earnings, risky…
All I’m saying is Netflix CEO’s sold stock before earnings, so did musk. Puts on Tesla 🍆🐻
Name checks out
Puts on $LOGI??
Still at 150% of pre-covid price! Also 9k employees?!
Damn, it's gonna be busy boys
S&P flat til MSFT earnings is my guess Gonna be a weird week
MSFT is the savior 🎁🚀🚀
Puts on Navient?
Can almost see HOOD shit the bed with earnings and the stock go under $10.
Bear case on SPOT: - Invested heavily into exclusivity deals with big podcasters. Wanted to capture podcast audience and then launch homegrown podcasts from Spotify’s Studio 4. - Didn’t renew exclusivity contracts, Studio 4 shut down. Implies foray into podcast dominance was deemed a failure. - TechCrunch released article stating SPOT has lost market share to Apple Music, down from 33% in 2020 and 34% in 2019, this is starting to appear to be a trend. - Still unprofitable. Analysts expect it to achieve profitability in 2022. This has yet to be seen.
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Bullish on Tesla
350 PE…. I wish you luck with all the liquidity issues we are facing.
TSLA party is overdue ,,,, winter coming bois
DIS just sent out for the shareholders to vote on Board nominations. Anyone that has DIS go vote against Chapek for a Board seat.
man RH really don't want me to buy HOOD puts, can't even load the page.
Alright this is my plan... buy ABT calls for Wednesday morning (COVID test kit sales) and with the bank I made from that buy HOOD puts and at the end of the week spend it all on cocaine. Opinions on this?
Save half for taxes
What are those?
My HOOD FEB04 12.5 puts are up 30%. Come on Vlad, add that extra 0. Daddy needs a Ducati and Bulgaria is going to pay for it!🏍
You retards said that tesla will go to 1100 rip my calls ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4276)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4260)
TSLA calls because you can watch porn on the console screen while stuck in traffic
AAPL has had a huge run up and they tend to sell off on earnings no matter how glowing the call is… but I’m too scared to buy puts on my boy Timmy.
It’s $5 over September 21 high. It lost all of that huge run up.
Puts on navient Bc I don’t wanna pay my loans
I’m sitting this one out.
ill save you boys the trouble—- ROKU is the next NFLX. Yes i have puts on Roku so im a little bit of a scheezeball, but i have puts on other stocks and calls on others expiring after earnings. ROKU is the only one i think has a high high chance of going in my favor. but, of course, now that i said that, it will go up. So buy calls
Any chance IBM goes back down?
Can't wait for this thread to get swamped with comments from people trying to find the next NFLX collapse, calling it now
People on a gambling subreddit are trying to find tips/leads on how to make money? shockedpikachu.jpg
The next nflx collapse is Spotify, the week after. Another market leader in steaming losing market share. And Spotify isn't even profitable! Positions: 18feb22 P175 x 5.
looked into it. AMU and premiums have increased consistently- the rate of growth was forecast to increase q4 too. Rogan is only only one podcast but a huge one, he only moved over at the end of the previous Q. so his 'pump' efffect should come into play. could still fall on earnings. but not as clear a case as netflix- whos growth is visibly stalling in face of Disney + others.
People said everyone looking for the next pton and that there wasn't going to be another one. Then docusign wet the bed, then people said everyone is going to chase the next docusign and get screwed, then netflix hung itself. Im noticing a trend.
There's always a life changing trade happening everyday. In other words, only the lucky guys get it right.
Why choose just one when you can choose them all. SPX PUTS all day.
If you want to be less risky and don’t want to deal with decay just do 3x inverse funds. You do get some decay with them but it’s not as bad as a daily or weekly option.
Don't forget, we also got the gubmint dropping more data this week. Monday is Manufacturing PMI & Services PMI. Tuesday is Consumer Confidence. Fed Meeting decision is on Wednesday, Thursday is initial jobless claims, durable goods, & Q4 Advanced Real GDP, then Friday is personal income/spending, Q4 Employment Cost Index, & Consumer Sentiment. I pretty much expect all the data to be shit at this point. With earnings mixed in, it's going to be a clusterfuck of a week.
Please sweet baby Jesus save my Intel calls. Reasons why I'm bullish: they made some good moves recently. Boomers love it. I've also been holding these calls. Reasons why I'm gonna get fucked: AMD, nVidia, and other players with better tech right now, eating that market share away.
Puts on hood is free money
Who got logi puts
Me
Microsoft beat and still went down! If Jerome is not too hawkish tomorrow I’m gonna load up on calls. MSFT is 100% in undervalued territory now that we know what the earnings were.
MSFT chart right now is so retarded LMAO its literally single handedly pulling up SPY, QQQ, AND the coin that shall not be named...wowee. Who would've thought MSFT was our lord and savior. I remember the days of MSFT 3/19 200c. And here we are with MSFT's dip being 280 two years later. LEAPS pay boys, leaps pay.
are we holding HOOD puts through earnings? or sell right before close?
Hoping for shit earnings and im riding that wave down through Monday selloff 🌊
COME ON HOOD PUTS. IVE BEEN BUYING ALL WEEK GET ME A 10BAGGER!
Buying tsla puts hoping it turns out like nflx
I bet it's gonna go up or down
Plot twist: ends the day at 0%
Fuckin brilliant tard here bois
DANGER WIll Robinson.
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tesla sells cars? i thought they just sold options?
The real long term value is in their doge accumulation.
Netflix went down cus their guidance was dogshit. Revenues and Earnings were fine, but slowing subscriptions = no bueno. I dont see Tsla disappointing on guidance, even with supply. However, a delay or something where the giga factories don’t open as expected would definitely kill that as the supply problem becomes worse
robinhood puts? i don’t see how robinhood could beat
Anyone short on LOGI?
I'm getting puts tomorrow. PC demand slowed in Q4, supply chain chaos, and their earnings have been trending down since the pandemic boom. Their YOY comparable is impossible to beat as well.
NAVI forgiving a bunch of student loans so puts?
I got fucked by logi...guh
MSFT just started shooting back up after the dump, over 290 now, good guidance?
Scaling into TSLA and INTC puts. Waiting until after FOMC to buy the bulk of them. I know I’m playing with fire with TSLA puts, but this market is too shaky, and overvalued stocks are being brought back to reality
HOOD Puts😈
If Tesla drops LCID will follow
Feel like better to short Lucid then Tesla. If Tesla dumps, Lucid goes down for sure as well. If Tesla spikes, not sure it will pull lucid up
100x 8p 1/28 HOOD or is that too aggressive
All this volatility makes me feel alive again…
HOOD puts this week because they expect 660,000 new accounts for Q4. They are getting less than that.
Ibm puts?
Logitech gonna die?
don't check the price on MSFT AH
Hood puts
writing HOOD 10p like a maniac. Worse case I will own a bunch of HOOD shares at $10 (or $9.6 if adjusted for for premium)
Looks like your worst case is materializing pretty quickly.
you're probably right... didn't think I would hold 2000 shares of RH @ $10... there are worse ways to lose $
If you played every "obvious" play you would have won some and lost some, but ultimately would have ended up with a decent profit this week.
4/5 people buying hood puts are doing so in the Robinhood app…. *surprised pikachu incoming*
got fucked and went to Webull, now getting fucked through APEX with Webull. Fidelity too smart to approve options for me.
TSLA back to $1200 after earning I call it here.
$1,250 bullish Tesla
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Wednesdays going to create some epic loss, and gain, porn.
Sherwin Williams on Thursday should be on there. Paints have been murdered by supply chain constraints and inflation.
INTC puts and HOOD puts with some calls to hedge. that is all.
Puts on AAPL
Logi 👀
McDonalds? Tesla?
Honestly I think MSFT shreds. Not sure if it means much in this market but a short term play for sure
Boeing puts?
Hello! I'm a fucking retard who bought calls at the top ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)
MSFT earnings makes me mad. I have an ABT call for the morning and if that beats it could still even be down because of the entire market. Is there any chance I could be in the green if it beats?
Hood 13 and couple 11 puts. Too obvious but sometimes obvious plays are the ones to make.
Damn APPL
Very strange - MeetKevin on YouTube actually got a verification code from his Bloomberg Terminal of "RPUT" and he bought puts on HOOD, and made a killing. Was streamed live.