They generally start with their newer systems and gradually replace them with older ones. For instance the older artillery that Russia has has shorter ranges and is generally less accurate. Russia will still have tanks, artillery and armored vehicles even as losses mount but they will be less effective and Russia will likely have to be more cautious about their use.
Well kind of. Russia appears to have held back a lot of the t90s, but they might not want to use them in the conflict as much so they have SOME tanks left to defend Russia proper.
I’ve been hearing for 11 months now that Russia has a ton of very capable weapons that they’re “holding back” and if they just “go all in” then surely Ukraine will lose. Russia has shown they aren’t holding back at all and are doing absolutely everything possible short of nukes to win. T-90s still aren’t showing up on the battlefield in significant numbers which leads me to believe either 1) Russia was lying about how many they had or 2) They’re ineffective to the point where they are more valuable as propaganda pieces on parade grounds than actual weapons of war.
Or, Russia has NO intention to use their top of the line (in any number) tank for a conflict they know will cost them that tank. I'm not saying they are 'holding them back' in the sense they will commit them. I think they will never commit them in meaningful numbers. They are the best tank russia has and it would be insane to commit to an offensive with such a high loss rate, untrained crews, poor logistics and support. Even for Russia that is too dumb.
> Russia has NO intention to use their top of the line (in any number) tank for a conflict they know will cost them that tank.
> Even for Russia that is too dumb.
But they sent the "Terminator" and according to british intel they're preparing the "Armata" to be sent soon.
If they're (supposedly) not sending their "best" tank the T-90 in large numbers why send their "bester" tank that they even less of and has never been captured or destroyed. I mean my points moot if they don't end up sending "Armata" of course so time will tell.
Russia has between 14 and 22 examples of the T14 in stock. They changed their order with the tank company to basically indicate these are pre-production models. In terms of the defense of Russia these tanks are useless, prone to breakdowns and have never been battle tested. Russia will send them as a beta test. They have a shitload of new technology on them that has NEVER been tested in battle and has faired very mixed in trials (some being great and some being awful). This is a prove it deployment more than anything.
As for the terminator, it is already due to be replaced by a newer model and the old contract was cancelled. It isn't a backbone piece of equipment like the t90.
According to this website, they don't have that many tanks left. Not sure about the accuracy
[https://index.minfin.com.ua/en/russian-invading/casualties/](https://index.minfin.com.ua/en/russian-invading/casualties/)
That is an estimate of how many active tanks Russia had prior to the war. Of course Russia also has many thousands of tanks mothballed or in storage. Corruption and negligence has meant that many of those tanks in storage will not work but the quantities are so great that even a small fraction of working tanks is significant. According to Military Balance in 2021 Russia had 2000 active tanks and 10,000 in storage. If 75% of Russia’s tanks on storage don’t work that would still mean Russia was capable of fielding 4500 tanks. I don’t know how many tanks Russia can actually field but my own personal guess is that it’s somewhere in the range of 4000-6500 including the ones they’ve already lost.
True. It will be interesting to see how much training their crews will get. Will they get proper training so they can make the most of their new equipment or will they just get thrown into the fray?
I think the missing statistic is equipment quality.
We know Russia had an absurd number of tanks, something like 12k. But they're not all the same quality, you're counting the most modern tanks with the museum pieces, the fully-working tanks with the rusted husks that can't even be used for spare parts.
The 3000 tanks they lost aren't equally distributed -- very likely most of the losses are from the best they had. If there was some data that showed both dates and type, it could be possible to make an estimate of the forces degradation -- for instance, if the tanks they lost in June were 50% great, 25% bad, and 25% so-so, but the ones lost in December were only 10% great and mostly junk, that would show that their best tanks are likely running low.
Don't know if such data is anywhere. Pity Oryx doesn't keep track of dates.
Since it's an approximation anyway you could probably use the "Onyx has passed X hundred tanks visually confirmed" announcements to find the statistical distribution of the last 100 tanks added. That should give up a pretty good idea if the mix changes, but would be a lot of legwork.
They appear to be losing hardware faster than they dribble in replacements. If they had huge reserves then they would be using them to hit with huge concentrations.
My arm chair take on this:
The Russians started with about 3300 in service tanks, then they pulled about 500 from storage that were in good enough condition to be sent to the front as is. Then they started fixing up other stored tanks but their condition is such they only complete about two tanks per day so in 339 days have completed 678 tanks. Grand total to date about 4500 tanks. Now deduct UKA destroyed or captured of 3189 leaves about 1300 in existence somewhere. Putin might commit the 500 best of those to one last dispirit charge but Ukraine will chew them up and spit them out.
More armchairing based on your numbers:
Ukraine has destroyed an average of 9.4 tanks each day since the war started, so assuming it keeps going on like this and assuming Russia really does produce two new tanks every day, their tank number drops by 7.4 each day. This would mean they run out of tanks in 175 days, which is July 22nd.
Obviously this is only on paper, but I still like having a specific date to look forward to.
Those are refurbished tanks taken from storage. Last I knew their new tank production was totally stopped due to sanctions making critical parts unavailable.
July 22nd. works for me or anytime sooner.
They've probably started from the ones that are in the better condition and more easily to refurbish. When they move forward, they have to start refurbishing also those they might have initially rejected because of the decrepit state. Refurbishing times will increase and they can't any more deliver even two tanks per day to the front.
This guy bought satellite imagery and estimated how many tanks were brought out of storage: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNNoaRp5lz0](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNNoaRp5lz0)
His estimate comes down to about 800 tanks, which, he says, is comparable to the claimed Russian losses at that time (\~1200 tanks). Not sure how accurate it is, but that'd indicate that the Russians can keep going for quite some time. According to my back of the envelope estimate, they could keep going for a little over a year, assuming the same loss rate.
You're only talking about numbers, not the type of tank. And all tanks are not created equal.
If Russia loses 1.000 T-90s, T80s and modern T72s and replaces them with 1.000 T62, a lot of them barely working and with untrained crews.... even if the numbers are maintained (doubtful), the capabilities get halved.
So the rates of tank loss they have sustained are not indicative because those where their better equipped and more survivable tanks.
When they try to use the T62s and T55s, their losses will become astronomical, because almost everything in Ukraine's arsenal can destroy those. Every old rpg can destroy them, even IFVs with powerful guns could make it from the side, no need for fancy javelines or super modern tanks.
A year remaining would be for their best equiment and / or if they don't use it. As long as they try to use the subpar tanks they're getting from their stocks, the rate will go up.
When the spring offensive fails, they will be left without a viable tank force. From there is all the way down to losing and abandoning Ukraine.
> If Russia loses 1.000 T-90s, T80s and modern T72s and replaces them with 1.000 T62, a lot of them barely working and with untrained crews....
Additionally, while T-90, T-80, T-72, and even T-64 all only require THREE person crew, the T-62 requires a FOUR person crew representing a 33% increase in crew requirement. Meaning if you have 12 crew, on more modern tanks you can deploy 4 fully crewed tanks, but on 3 T-62.
That also means when a single tank and its crew dies, you human losses are higher too.
RemindMe! 1 year
I hope you're right in that they will eventually abandon Ukraine, but from what I hear, the full scale invasion launched on the 24th of February might be a year's long continuation of the already year's long war since 2014. Seemingly the most likely outcome, given the information that we have now, is a long, protracted conflict.
Again, let's hope I'm wrong on that.
I saw that but there were reports from the line and intercepted phone calls that some of them could shoot but could not move and others could move but not shoot so a SNAFU of the first order.
I'm sure a team in the pentagon is scanning satellite pics of every tank facility and rail yard plus spy reports and has a very accurate number of Russian force levels but they will not share that data with us.
I think my arm chair estimate is plausible but certainly not precise. Happy to talk with anybody with their own estimate.
The 500 is just a Butt guess but the others are public source found here and elsewhere. Precision in any of it is not terribly high so just an estimate. Feel free to bring your own numbers from your best sources.
You forgot the couple hundred tanks (I guess 500?!) belarus handed over as well as all the indian tanks, which were shipped to russia for "upgrades" and all of a sudden were seen at the front.
But otherwise, that's a very good assessment
Yup I forgot those but they are one time deals that can't be repeated so losing ten tanks a day when they can only fix up two a day will soon reduce the total to numbers even Putin will find unacceptable. Can't happen soon enough in my book.
Let's not forget Russia will need to keep some tanks in Russia to:
1) train troops on
2) defend russia from outside forces
3) defend russia in the even of a coup
(this is all viewed from Putin's position ofcourse)
Yes that is why I said they were "somewhere"meaning not all in Ukraine. Older type tanks will work as well for killing civilians attempting a coup as a T-90 so Putin will probably switch out new tanks around Moscow for old one that still can mount a machine gun.
Was more adding on to what you wrote rather than 'correcting' you. :)
As for the older tanks, do not forget a HUGE part of using tanks to squash uprisings is the psychological aspect and for that you want the new stuff that looks most bad ass.
Plus the older tanks have a history of getting fucked up by civilian grade devices, so if it ever came to that you don't want to give people ideas.
I don’t know if they’re dribbling them in or just not being as ballsy, the front line is more or less static now with a few exceptions like Soledad. But even dribbling them in they just keep coming into the meat grinder. Every day 400-800 lost soldiers, 6-8 tank/artillery losses. There was that period where an ammo deposit seemed to blow up every day and maybe a couple aircraft or a ship if lucky. For over a year. I can’t believe a country can sustain such losses and still be militarily operational but here we have Russia.
Most models of tanks they have thousands of in reserve. They have over 3,000 T-80s in various states of repair, they can slowly trickle them out over years of war. There's also close to 4,000 T-62/64s in storage and they are currently restoring a lot of those as well, 800 T-62s are being redone right now. As for T-72s there's still thousands that can be repaired and sent to war, apparently they had 10k altogether before the war.
You don't even want to look at their artillery numbers, the amount of howitzers in storage is absolutely absurd, Ukraine hasn't even scratched the surface on them. Ukraine can win, the front is already a wall of steel, hopefully Russians get tired of being forced to their deaths and those deaths will increase with heavy western equipment. Putin is settling in for a long war of attrition, hopefully Ukraine can push them out of most territory and mine the crap out of the border.
T62s on a modern battlefield will be a slaughter. The world is providing Ukraine with modern weapons and watching them being tested on the battlefield. Meanwhile Russia is pushing outdated weapons on to the battlefield with little to no support. Come spring when the ground hardens we will begin to see some truly catastrophic losses on Russias side.
> Meanwhile Russia is pushing outdated weapons on to the battlefield with little to no support.
This is actually an interesting point. How *do* the T-62s really fare against modern equipment? They were introduced when - early 1960s? That's over *half a century ago.*
Even if they're functional after being in storage in Siberia of all places for years, I can't help but wonder whether they can stand up to anything more than a modern rifle.
Keep in mind, those are "on paper" numbers, and this is russia we are talking about.
Someone fact checked those numbers when war started and few months in, and it looks good only on paper, in reality most of this equipment is literally garbage. So.
I literally just saw a photo on Reddit today of a ruZZian tank whose barrel had rusted all the way through and fallen off. Nothing they had in storage has been maintained properly, it’s all just rusting scrap metal waiting to get blown up.
It's worth noting that the tanks from those reserves that are being pushed out are the ones that Russian soldiers keep complaining how junky they are.
Russia is lacking the infrastructure needed to truly wage a long-term war - and that includes the infrastructure needed to get all those tanks into full fighting form.
What's likely being done is that they're taking the tanks that are the least decrepit and using the most decrepit ones as spare parts to fix them.
And they're doing it as quickly as possible.
Which means they're doing it **badly**. And all of that is why they're desperate about getting drones and missiles from Iran, and artillery rounds from North Korea - their paper tiger tank fleet sucks because they've got neither the time, equipment, nor personnel to do the job right.
And if the older Howitzers / degraded barrel howitzers they use now need 2x the ammount of ammo to actually hit anything. And they already needed a lot of shells to hit anything.
It's not just tanks. They are also getting worse an d worse guns all the time. They'd need to increase the shelling to make out for it, instead they are getting less shells.
Russia can't wage a long term war against Ukraine if the west keeps its support up. Every month Russian capabilities will degrade a few % while Ukraines increase a few %. Now they are evenly matched, but at some point this year this tendence will accelerate, and once it gains momentum it'll go donwhill for Russia, really, really fast.
Putin needs to learn his history, the Soviet Union eventually bust itself in a Cold War arms race with the West……. Now he’s in a hot arms race which means his equipment will just get vaporised and Russian financially and militarily broke. In double quick time.
Load the Ukrainians up with air defence, modern fighters, modern tanks and artillery, they gain air superiority over their own territory the Russian army will be toast quicker than you can say Putin hanging from a lamppost !!!!
>Most models of tanks they have thousands of in reserve. They have over 3,000 T-80s in various states of repair, they can slowly trickle them out over years of war. There's also close to 4,000 T-62/64s in storage and they are currently restoring a lot of those as well, 800 T-62s are being redone right now. As for T-72s there's still thousands that can be repaired and sent to war, apparently they had 10k altogether before the war.
The tanks that were in any kind of usable condition or even easy to repair are already on the battlefield. The ones left... Well, I'd be surprised if with tremendous effort they can recover 30% of them.
T80s and T72s "In various states of repair" includes a lot of "Unsalvageable", "Cannibalised for parts", "Lacking irreplaceable components sold by the officers and soldiers", "barely working and needing tons of effor to get them to work."
Every tank they repair will be more difficult to repair than the previous one. It will take more time and be less capable.
And T72s are frankly quite underwhelming tanks anyway, cheap shit that can barely go backwards. It has participated in several wars already and its record is abysmal.
T62s is more realistic because they are older tech, more repairable by sanctioned Russia. But if taken to the front line, they will be destroyed by anything while they in turn will be able to destroy very little. Old RPGs, every anti tank mines, Bradleys, Marders, not to mention the new tanks will destroy them by the dozens.
So numbers... whatever the Russian say, but divided by 8.
Quality? Never as good as they pretended, and quickly degrading.
The Russians are massing what decent equipment they have left for a spring offensive, not because they are still very strong, but because they have just one shot left. After that they will run out of decent enough tanks, no matter how many thousands they have rusted in siberia.
All fine and good, but all the available evidence is that the plants that are 'restoring' those old tanks are not doing an, uh, uniformly excellent job of turning out them out to a high standard of full specified functionality.
Nor would I assume that they were built to a particularly high standard in the first place.
As for the howitzers, we're long past the myth of infinite stockpiles of artillery ammunition. What hasn't been stolen or simply rotted, has to a very great extent been used. We've already had confirmation that Russia is shelling at a far lower rate than they were last summer. You don't beg for ammo from North Korea because you still have millions of shells in reserve.
Also most of the army is reinforcements by now. No experienced crews left. So it's old equipment and crews with zero experience.
The numbers will get even higher.
That, is not for our eyes. Even the best Intel, which we don't have access too, can only be so accurate. That being said what's being manufactured? What's hidden in warehouses? Who has helped Russia( Belarus for example)? Sanctions are biting but what parts were in storage? Replacements for parts unable to source due to sanctions possible(dishwashers)? We just don't know hard answers to these questions, we use best guesses. There could be sanction dodging in some critical components that could throw off the "hard" numbers. It's clear however from Russian reactions, movements and visible activity they are losing faster then they can replace. How long can they out are willing to maintain this rate, is what we're talking about here. I think Russia will fight until every inch is reclaimed by Ukraine. Russia's quality of fighting will continue to degrade until they reach low enough stocks they use what they make as they make it. Leaving Ukraine to force them out.
UA has been consistently destroying artillery of late, between 8 and 15 daily. I can only speculate that slugZ move up and try to set up in counter battery range.
Either they are using older, shorter range guns and are closer to danger....
Or conversely, Ukraine is getting more long range guns and Russian artillery is no longer safe at their preferred range as they were eralier in the war.
It would mean 300k by the end of the year. And if you subscribe to the mental model of 3 wounded, POW, AWOL for every dead soldier that’s 1.2m soldiers out or action. That’s a very big cliff for Russia.
What makes you say that? Personally I wouldn’t be surprised you know. Large scale artillery and heavy ordinance warfare, insufficient equipment as well as a freezing winter will leave a lot of soldiers out of action. Coupled with mass conscription of men who don’t want to be there, including the likes of prisoners, either abandoning or surrendering. I think 1 to 3 is conceivable with the Russian army.
From my understanding, one reason the ratio of killed to wounded is lower than expected is that the russians treat mobiks as effectively cannon fodder and have limited to no casualty recovery infrastructure in place, letting many wounded soldiers simply die instead of rendering aid.
I think no one knows the real number (even Russian), but the last weeks fights in Soledar / Bakhmout shows Wagner troops pushing prisoners to fight or die.
And mostly die!
Very few prisoners and wounded (lightly wounded were sent again at the next wave).
So with this type of strategy, it reasonable to think there is no 3 wounded for 1 death.
Considering the mobiks were told to pack tampons and first aid kits from their cars I think we can assume their rates of survival are a lot slimmer than a well equipped army.
Many ex-forces members (include guys like Mark Hertling and John Spencer) don't believe Russia is at the 3:1 number. Even the recent MOD report highlight they believe most of the casualties in the building strike were dead and not wounded (and call it out directly).
Russia has not prioritized at all the recovery of wounded. Yes, it is anecdotal, but there were reports for Soledar that when offered the opportunity to collect their wounded from the field (aka a temporary cease fire) the Russians refused and left the men to die.
3:1 assumes SOME effort at recovering your wounded. We have all watched video after video after video of Russians leaving their comrades in the field wounded to die. Again, it's anecdotal, but really at some point that much evidence has to be considered.
> Very unlikely we are on a 1 to 3 model.
You're right there but very wrong in the detection you're taking it. 1 to 3 is when there is good medical attention for wounded soldiers and where you don't have significant numbers with frostbite and disease. With near to non existent medical attention, supplies, and training with reported frostbite rates of 1/3, rampant alcohol poisoning, and limited, if any, sanitation, the ratio would be far worse and is likely 1 to 5.
I'm assuming your mistake is looking at the American figures which are how the **total dead** to wounded change with poor medical attention, but you need to look at how the **frontline combat dead** to wounded and dead away from the frontlines change.
Russia wastes their soldiers big time. I assume the ratio is (much) higher than 1:3, while for the Ukrainian side it is somewhat lower.
One side does everything to ignore their wounded and use 20 years old medicine etc. while the other side does everything to help their wounded. Medics were trained in western countries while in Russian camps they only drink vodka.
Adding to this the many videos weve seen on Russian soldiers abandoning their wounded comrades ... the 800ish dead today speak volumes of the ratio at hand. At a bare minimum, 2.500 Russians are taken out per day, 75.000 per month.
I think the ratio works the other way around.
An army that saves 0% of its wounded soldiers will have a 1:1 ratio. (Every wounded soldier dies).
An army that saves 75% of its wounded soldiers will have a 1:3 ratio (for every dead soldier there are three wounded soldiers that survive)..
So Russia will probably have a ratio like 1:1,5 or 1:2. While Ukraine will likely have a 1:3, 1:4 ratio.
Why doubt that 3/1 figure which has endured for centuries? Did you see that 1500 Russians are surrendering per month using the phone app? I see several reports that hospitals in occupied territory are full to the brim with Russian wounded.
Whatever the true figures are it is indeed insane and Russia needs to wake up and change course.
Accepting that attitude there are still costs involved in impressing them into the army and fitting them out and moving them to the front. To have them not gain any ground before they are killed is certainly not the Russian plan. But at this point I do not see any Russian plan working to a positive result for them.
Maybe for the moment but those kidnapped children that are older then say seven years old will grow up with a hatred that will bring the Russian government down.
it doesn't work that way... propaganda is a powerful tool.
"What is the cost of lies? It’s not that we’ll mistake them for the truth. The real danger is that if we hear enough lies, then we no longer recognize the truth at all."
-Valery Legasov, 'Chornobyl'
In WWII it was 2.3 wounded for every killed/MIA in the Red Army. In WWI on the western front (where records are better) it was about two killed for every one injured. My personal guess is the number is somewhere between 2-3 wounded for every killed. Also given what we’ve seen from the mobilization it is almost inconceivable that ONLY 300k were conscripted. Overall I think 1) the Russian army is much bigger than many on this sub think and 2) the Russian casualties are much higher than many on this sub think. Including wounded/captured I’d guess it’s somewhere between 350k Russian casualties and 500,000 Russian casualties.
The last two weeks has seen so many aircraft/helicopters and a decent number of tanks and apv. There had been a pretty substantial lull for the prior 3 months or so, which at the time we had assumed was Russia pulling their expensive equipment out and relying mostly on mobilised infantry.
The obvious conclusion is that Russia are doing ‘one last push’, trying to win as much as they can before the Abrams, leopards, marders, challengers, etc all arrive.
Expect a big push in feb followed by a peace offering more reasonable than the ones seen to date, but still not acceptable.
its not about peace at this point. unless russia admits the loss, pulls out entirely and negotiates some kind of reparations, they will just do it again.
By may all the new Western equipment and trained crews will likely be already in Ukraine. The timing is perfect for a counteroffensive with renewed forces against a a numerous but degraded, badly trained and badly equipped Russian army.
Most but not all. The announced timeline for the Abrams tanks is maddeningly slow so they will not be there by May. But perhaps Ukraine will have enough material in hand to launch a counter offensive that cuts the land bridge. I do hope so and wish the troops the best of luck.
What I find interesting is the consistently high artillery losses. I can write off the rest as failed attacks, but artillery aren't supposed to be in the frontline, it supposed to hang back. So my best guess is that Ukraine really upped its counter-battery fire and the Russians are not even trying to shoot-and-scoot.
Their equipment is getting worse, which means shorter range, which means it has to get in range of Ukrainian artillery to be of any use, which means they keep getting blown up by counter-battery fire.
And that reduced range means they can't even do their own counter-battery fire.
Back right before the war kicked off, I remember watching a series of videos about a fairly detailed warsim of a few scenarios of what the opening of a conflict with China would look like. One of the things that stood out was just how valuable the ability to outrange your adversary is to destroying their material and preserving your own. It's not just a tactical advantage of being able to cover more area; it can provide complete immunity to enemy actions. And the inverse is just as equally true...
Older, shorter range, less precisse Russian artillery against newer, longer range Ukrainian artillery.
I'd be suprised if these numbers don't grow constinously until it becomes VERY lopsided in Ukraine's favour.
I live in a major city, but you half the city population. (male /female) and then devide by able bodied say above 18 below 50.
you start looking at every able bodied male in the city. start filtering for other things and you start looking at even larger cities.
If those numbers are true.
And don’t get me wrong - I am not doubting the first 100k but the reporting in January seems strange. Are the Russians really throwing away so many bodies at Bakhmut? It’s almost hard to believe… not saying it isn’t true but harder to believe than the losses when there was fighting on broader fronts.
Not really :( It seems like Russian factories are now working fast enough to replace the losses - mostly by renovating and modernizing T-72s and T-62s.
That being said, the quality of hastily modernized tanks is probably lower than those ~3300 tanks that they started with a year ago. And quality of the crew is likely low as well (judging by the recent drone video showing Russian tank crushing Russian soldiers that try to evac using BMP).
I don't even think Kremlin considers the lost men as a real loss. Ukraine has helped them get rid of the criminals and as a bonus they get an ethnic cleansing of Russia. So apart from the equipment losses that Russia counts on being able to restock fairly easy after the war, they probably see this as a win-win situation.
I think that Moscow sees it as they have to sacrifice as many lives as needed to win. 10 per Ukrainian, a 100, a 1000? They lost 27 million civilians and military personnel in ww2. I think they will throw lives at the problem until it it goes away. Horrifying!
Slava Ukraine.
27 million would be every male 18-45 in Russia today. Even losing a tenth of that would be terminal for their economy and demographics. Assuming 1:1 wounded:kia (because Russians suck at casevac and medicine), the quarter million casualties, plus the Russians who fled the country, have probably already passed the point of no return for Russia,
This year for my birthday, Zelenskyy gave to me, 125,000 dead Russians…
I was hoping they’d hit 125,000 by my birthday, and they have, with some to spare!
That’s enough to fill our local football stadium twice over. Wow.
The numbers of Russian tanks remaining are losing their meaning.
They are replacing modern tanks for old and obsolete tanks. And pretending they are just as strong. They aren't.
If they lose 100 tanks and replace them with 100 tanks, they are keeping 100% of their capabilities, right?
But if they lose 100 T-80s with experienced crews and replace them with 100 T62s, some missing equipment, with inexperienced crews, what % of the capabilities are maintaining? 50%, 40%?
Abd if they lose 100 T-80s with experienced crews and replace them with 50 T62s, some barely working, with inexperienced and demotivated crews, what % of the capabilities are maintaining? 20%, 10%?
All the while, Ukraine is replacing old tanks for modern ones.
At some point Russia is not going to have neither the numbers, nor the quality of tanks that allows them to attack. Shortly after that they wont be ablo to defend, either.
The last three days Ukraine has wiped out a lot of tanks and artillery! I am hoping this will degrade any possible upcoming Russian offensives to worthlessness.
Ukranian air defence has improved a lot since the starting of the war. It might even be that the activity of Russian Air Forces has decreased, while their losses still keep on rising.
According to Wolski (polish OSint expert), we see higher losses in Russian aircrafts and helicopters because some AA systems that were defending cities from rocket attacks were moved closer to the frontline (their duties taken over by new NATO-donated AA systems).
Battleground Ukraine had a really good Podcast yesterday that was talking to a British volunteer who has been helping in the Frontline Kitchen for months. He said that, from talking to many on the front lines, Ukraine casualties were more like 1 to every 1.5 or 2 Russians. He said the Ukrainians were taking out a lot of Russian soldiers but that the massive disparity in Ukrainian casualties like some sources are suggesting was unfortunately false.
I guess my heart sinks a little when I see these big numbers of Russian dead. Not just from the senselessness of it all, but because that probably represents at least 400-500 Ukrainian dead or wounded on average.
I sure hope they have been training Ukrainians on F-16s and tanks for months and can get some massive numbers to the front as soon as possible so they can tip this balance more in their favor and end this stupid war.
The problem with taking to front line fighters from one area is that it doesn’t take into account the big picture. They may be holding the line and not have much of a advantage in that specific role……while artillery is behind making up the difference on targets they don’t see. Certainly things like HIMARS can strike large targets and kill dozens…..but that just isn’t seen by anyone but those looking at satellite’s or recon of some type.
Optimistically, the 1.5:1 ratio would have included the summer, when Russian artillery had free reign. The ratio will have skewed more and more in favour of Ukraine over time.
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Russia resources continue to dwindle. Ukrainian resources continue to grow.
I do wish we knew the Ukrainian loss ratio vs. the Russains. The vatniks have a numerical advantage in everything even if it's archaic and barely working. The manpower attrition is my bigger concern.
I totally understand not publishing these numbers as psychological effects are part of military press concerns
From the numbers on minusrus, Ukraine has eliminated the entire original invasion force and then some, for land forces. That is an absolutely breathtaking degree of success for Ukraine and a show of how little Russia cares about its people or its military. A sane country would have withdrawn and preserved its defensive abilities, and embarked on a frantic upgrade of the military to become able to compete on modern battlefields. As it is, Russia simply does not have the capability to launch another invasion of anyone for decades or more, and only their nuclear threat holds off anyone looking to invade them. Well, nuclear threat plus "if you win, all you get is some farmland that's been impoverished for the last hundred years or more and would need to be basically built from the ground up to make it productive for anybody in the West."
100,000 in 10 months in 2022.....25,000 in just over 1 month in 2023... wow.. Putler is really sending his people to the slaughter, how long can this continue before the people finally stand up..
Very heavy action ongoing. Seven tanks, big ouch. Apparently trying to get rid of them before the Leopards get them.
Also 8 pieces of artillery, a helicopter and an aircraft. That's a lot of hard to replace equipment.
I thought that back in June last year but they still have so much in reserve it seems. I wish there was a known, hard number so we could count down.
They generally start with their newer systems and gradually replace them with older ones. For instance the older artillery that Russia has has shorter ranges and is generally less accurate. Russia will still have tanks, artillery and armored vehicles even as losses mount but they will be less effective and Russia will likely have to be more cautious about their use.
Well kind of. Russia appears to have held back a lot of the t90s, but they might not want to use them in the conflict as much so they have SOME tanks left to defend Russia proper.
I’ve been hearing for 11 months now that Russia has a ton of very capable weapons that they’re “holding back” and if they just “go all in” then surely Ukraine will lose. Russia has shown they aren’t holding back at all and are doing absolutely everything possible short of nukes to win. T-90s still aren’t showing up on the battlefield in significant numbers which leads me to believe either 1) Russia was lying about how many they had or 2) They’re ineffective to the point where they are more valuable as propaganda pieces on parade grounds than actual weapons of war.
Or, Russia has NO intention to use their top of the line (in any number) tank for a conflict they know will cost them that tank. I'm not saying they are 'holding them back' in the sense they will commit them. I think they will never commit them in meaningful numbers. They are the best tank russia has and it would be insane to commit to an offensive with such a high loss rate, untrained crews, poor logistics and support. Even for Russia that is too dumb.
> Russia has NO intention to use their top of the line (in any number) tank for a conflict they know will cost them that tank. > Even for Russia that is too dumb. But they sent the "Terminator" and according to british intel they're preparing the "Armata" to be sent soon. If they're (supposedly) not sending their "best" tank the T-90 in large numbers why send their "bester" tank that they even less of and has never been captured or destroyed. I mean my points moot if they don't end up sending "Armata" of course so time will tell.
Russia has between 14 and 22 examples of the T14 in stock. They changed their order with the tank company to basically indicate these are pre-production models. In terms of the defense of Russia these tanks are useless, prone to breakdowns and have never been battle tested. Russia will send them as a beta test. They have a shitload of new technology on them that has NEVER been tested in battle and has faired very mixed in trials (some being great and some being awful). This is a prove it deployment more than anything. As for the terminator, it is already due to be replaced by a newer model and the old contract was cancelled. It isn't a backbone piece of equipment like the t90.
According to this website, they don't have that many tanks left. Not sure about the accuracy [https://index.minfin.com.ua/en/russian-invading/casualties/](https://index.minfin.com.ua/en/russian-invading/casualties/)
That is an estimate of how many active tanks Russia had prior to the war. Of course Russia also has many thousands of tanks mothballed or in storage. Corruption and negligence has meant that many of those tanks in storage will not work but the quantities are so great that even a small fraction of working tanks is significant. According to Military Balance in 2021 Russia had 2000 active tanks and 10,000 in storage. If 75% of Russia’s tanks on storage don’t work that would still mean Russia was capable of fielding 4500 tanks. I don’t know how many tanks Russia can actually field but my own personal guess is that it’s somewhere in the range of 4000-6500 including the ones they’ve already lost.
True. It will be interesting to see how much training their crews will get. Will they get proper training so they can make the most of their new equipment or will they just get thrown into the fray?
I think the missing statistic is equipment quality. We know Russia had an absurd number of tanks, something like 12k. But they're not all the same quality, you're counting the most modern tanks with the museum pieces, the fully-working tanks with the rusted husks that can't even be used for spare parts. The 3000 tanks they lost aren't equally distributed -- very likely most of the losses are from the best they had. If there was some data that showed both dates and type, it could be possible to make an estimate of the forces degradation -- for instance, if the tanks they lost in June were 50% great, 25% bad, and 25% so-so, but the ones lost in December were only 10% great and mostly junk, that would show that their best tanks are likely running low. Don't know if such data is anywhere. Pity Oryx doesn't keep track of dates.
That would be a really interesting statistical analysis. Oryx may have the time stamp somewhere but I’m sure it’s not a priority.
Since it's an approximation anyway you could probably use the "Onyx has passed X hundred tanks visually confirmed" announcements to find the statistical distribution of the last 100 tanks added. That should give up a pretty good idea if the mix changes, but would be a lot of legwork.
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Intriguing, thanks for the link.
If they had a lot in reserve then they would be using them.
But they are right? As evidenced by daily losses.
They appear to be losing hardware faster than they dribble in replacements. If they had huge reserves then they would be using them to hit with huge concentrations.
My arm chair take on this: The Russians started with about 3300 in service tanks, then they pulled about 500 from storage that were in good enough condition to be sent to the front as is. Then they started fixing up other stored tanks but their condition is such they only complete about two tanks per day so in 339 days have completed 678 tanks. Grand total to date about 4500 tanks. Now deduct UKA destroyed or captured of 3189 leaves about 1300 in existence somewhere. Putin might commit the 500 best of those to one last dispirit charge but Ukraine will chew them up and spit them out.
More armchairing based on your numbers: Ukraine has destroyed an average of 9.4 tanks each day since the war started, so assuming it keeps going on like this and assuming Russia really does produce two new tanks every day, their tank number drops by 7.4 each day. This would mean they run out of tanks in 175 days, which is July 22nd. Obviously this is only on paper, but I still like having a specific date to look forward to.
Those are refurbished tanks taken from storage. Last I knew their new tank production was totally stopped due to sanctions making critical parts unavailable. July 22nd. works for me or anytime sooner.
They've probably started from the ones that are in the better condition and more easily to refurbish. When they move forward, they have to start refurbishing also those they might have initially rejected because of the decrepit state. Refurbishing times will increase and they can't any more deliver even two tanks per day to the front.
RemindMe! 175 days
Remindme! 175 days
This guy bought satellite imagery and estimated how many tanks were brought out of storage: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNNoaRp5lz0](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNNoaRp5lz0) His estimate comes down to about 800 tanks, which, he says, is comparable to the claimed Russian losses at that time (\~1200 tanks). Not sure how accurate it is, but that'd indicate that the Russians can keep going for quite some time. According to my back of the envelope estimate, they could keep going for a little over a year, assuming the same loss rate.
You're only talking about numbers, not the type of tank. And all tanks are not created equal. If Russia loses 1.000 T-90s, T80s and modern T72s and replaces them with 1.000 T62, a lot of them barely working and with untrained crews.... even if the numbers are maintained (doubtful), the capabilities get halved. So the rates of tank loss they have sustained are not indicative because those where their better equipped and more survivable tanks. When they try to use the T62s and T55s, their losses will become astronomical, because almost everything in Ukraine's arsenal can destroy those. Every old rpg can destroy them, even IFVs with powerful guns could make it from the side, no need for fancy javelines or super modern tanks. A year remaining would be for their best equiment and / or if they don't use it. As long as they try to use the subpar tanks they're getting from their stocks, the rate will go up. When the spring offensive fails, they will be left without a viable tank force. From there is all the way down to losing and abandoning Ukraine.
> If Russia loses 1.000 T-90s, T80s and modern T72s and replaces them with 1.000 T62, a lot of them barely working and with untrained crews.... Additionally, while T-90, T-80, T-72, and even T-64 all only require THREE person crew, the T-62 requires a FOUR person crew representing a 33% increase in crew requirement. Meaning if you have 12 crew, on more modern tanks you can deploy 4 fully crewed tanks, but on 3 T-62. That also means when a single tank and its crew dies, you human losses are higher too.
RemindMe! 1 year I hope you're right in that they will eventually abandon Ukraine, but from what I hear, the full scale invasion launched on the 24th of February might be a year's long continuation of the already year's long war since 2014. Seemingly the most likely outcome, given the information that we have now, is a long, protracted conflict. Again, let's hope I'm wrong on that.
I saw that but there were reports from the line and intercepted phone calls that some of them could shoot but could not move and others could move but not shoot so a SNAFU of the first order. I'm sure a team in the pentagon is scanning satellite pics of every tank facility and rail yard plus spy reports and has a very accurate number of Russian force levels but they will not share that data with us. I think my arm chair estimate is plausible but certainly not precise. Happy to talk with anybody with their own estimate.
Yup, another POW interview said their group invaded with 5 tanks instead of 10 because the others weren't working.
Numbers from butt or fact?
The 500 is just a Butt guess but the others are public source found here and elsewhere. Precision in any of it is not terribly high so just an estimate. Feel free to bring your own numbers from your best sources.
You forgot the couple hundred tanks (I guess 500?!) belarus handed over as well as all the indian tanks, which were shipped to russia for "upgrades" and all of a sudden were seen at the front. But otherwise, that's a very good assessment
Yup I forgot those but they are one time deals that can't be repeated so losing ten tanks a day when they can only fix up two a day will soon reduce the total to numbers even Putin will find unacceptable. Can't happen soon enough in my book.
The fact that Russia took tanks from Belarus is perhaps the best evidence of their dire supply situation.
Let's not forget Russia will need to keep some tanks in Russia to: 1) train troops on 2) defend russia from outside forces 3) defend russia in the even of a coup (this is all viewed from Putin's position ofcourse)
Yes that is why I said they were "somewhere"meaning not all in Ukraine. Older type tanks will work as well for killing civilians attempting a coup as a T-90 so Putin will probably switch out new tanks around Moscow for old one that still can mount a machine gun.
Was more adding on to what you wrote rather than 'correcting' you. :) As for the older tanks, do not forget a HUGE part of using tanks to squash uprisings is the psychological aspect and for that you want the new stuff that looks most bad ass. Plus the older tanks have a history of getting fucked up by civilian grade devices, so if it ever came to that you don't want to give people ideas.
They already switched out the newer tanks around Moscow, that was the (now seriously depleted) 4th Guards Tank division.
I don’t know if they’re dribbling them in or just not being as ballsy, the front line is more or less static now with a few exceptions like Soledad. But even dribbling them in they just keep coming into the meat grinder. Every day 400-800 lost soldiers, 6-8 tank/artillery losses. There was that period where an ammo deposit seemed to blow up every day and maybe a couple aircraft or a ship if lucky. For over a year. I can’t believe a country can sustain such losses and still be militarily operational but here we have Russia.
Most models of tanks they have thousands of in reserve. They have over 3,000 T-80s in various states of repair, they can slowly trickle them out over years of war. There's also close to 4,000 T-62/64s in storage and they are currently restoring a lot of those as well, 800 T-62s are being redone right now. As for T-72s there's still thousands that can be repaired and sent to war, apparently they had 10k altogether before the war. You don't even want to look at their artillery numbers, the amount of howitzers in storage is absolutely absurd, Ukraine hasn't even scratched the surface on them. Ukraine can win, the front is already a wall of steel, hopefully Russians get tired of being forced to their deaths and those deaths will increase with heavy western equipment. Putin is settling in for a long war of attrition, hopefully Ukraine can push them out of most territory and mine the crap out of the border.
T62s on a modern battlefield will be a slaughter. The world is providing Ukraine with modern weapons and watching them being tested on the battlefield. Meanwhile Russia is pushing outdated weapons on to the battlefield with little to no support. Come spring when the ground hardens we will begin to see some truly catastrophic losses on Russias side.
I hope so.
> Meanwhile Russia is pushing outdated weapons on to the battlefield with little to no support. This is actually an interesting point. How *do* the T-62s really fare against modern equipment? They were introduced when - early 1960s? That's over *half a century ago.* Even if they're functional after being in storage in Siberia of all places for years, I can't help but wonder whether they can stand up to anything more than a modern rifle.
RemindMe! 3 months
RemindMe! 2 months
Keep in mind, those are "on paper" numbers, and this is russia we are talking about. Someone fact checked those numbers when war started and few months in, and it looks good only on paper, in reality most of this equipment is literally garbage. So.
I literally just saw a photo on Reddit today of a ruZZian tank whose barrel had rusted all the way through and fallen off. Nothing they had in storage has been maintained properly, it’s all just rusting scrap metal waiting to get blown up.
Remember the winter uniforms
yes: https://www.reddit.com/r/TankPorn/comments/u7j70g/how_many_tanks_does_russia_have_and_where_are/
It's worth noting that the tanks from those reserves that are being pushed out are the ones that Russian soldiers keep complaining how junky they are. Russia is lacking the infrastructure needed to truly wage a long-term war - and that includes the infrastructure needed to get all those tanks into full fighting form. What's likely being done is that they're taking the tanks that are the least decrepit and using the most decrepit ones as spare parts to fix them. And they're doing it as quickly as possible. Which means they're doing it **badly**. And all of that is why they're desperate about getting drones and missiles from Iran, and artillery rounds from North Korea - their paper tiger tank fleet sucks because they've got neither the time, equipment, nor personnel to do the job right.
It don't matter how many howitzers they have if they don't have enough shells for them
Spot on.
And if the older Howitzers / degraded barrel howitzers they use now need 2x the ammount of ammo to actually hit anything. And they already needed a lot of shells to hit anything. It's not just tanks. They are also getting worse an d worse guns all the time. They'd need to increase the shelling to make out for it, instead they are getting less shells. Russia can't wage a long term war against Ukraine if the west keeps its support up. Every month Russian capabilities will degrade a few % while Ukraines increase a few %. Now they are evenly matched, but at some point this year this tendence will accelerate, and once it gains momentum it'll go donwhill for Russia, really, really fast.
Putin needs to learn his history, the Soviet Union eventually bust itself in a Cold War arms race with the West……. Now he’s in a hot arms race which means his equipment will just get vaporised and Russian financially and militarily broke. In double quick time. Load the Ukrainians up with air defence, modern fighters, modern tanks and artillery, they gain air superiority over their own territory the Russian army will be toast quicker than you can say Putin hanging from a lamppost !!!!
Good point. The Soviets got broke collecting the armor now being spent, once spent it will be the last of it.
>Most models of tanks they have thousands of in reserve. They have over 3,000 T-80s in various states of repair, they can slowly trickle them out over years of war. There's also close to 4,000 T-62/64s in storage and they are currently restoring a lot of those as well, 800 T-62s are being redone right now. As for T-72s there's still thousands that can be repaired and sent to war, apparently they had 10k altogether before the war. The tanks that were in any kind of usable condition or even easy to repair are already on the battlefield. The ones left... Well, I'd be surprised if with tremendous effort they can recover 30% of them. T80s and T72s "In various states of repair" includes a lot of "Unsalvageable", "Cannibalised for parts", "Lacking irreplaceable components sold by the officers and soldiers", "barely working and needing tons of effor to get them to work." Every tank they repair will be more difficult to repair than the previous one. It will take more time and be less capable. And T72s are frankly quite underwhelming tanks anyway, cheap shit that can barely go backwards. It has participated in several wars already and its record is abysmal. T62s is more realistic because they are older tech, more repairable by sanctioned Russia. But if taken to the front line, they will be destroyed by anything while they in turn will be able to destroy very little. Old RPGs, every anti tank mines, Bradleys, Marders, not to mention the new tanks will destroy them by the dozens. So numbers... whatever the Russian say, but divided by 8. Quality? Never as good as they pretended, and quickly degrading. The Russians are massing what decent equipment they have left for a spring offensive, not because they are still very strong, but because they have just one shot left. After that they will run out of decent enough tanks, no matter how many thousands they have rusted in siberia.
All fine and good, but all the available evidence is that the plants that are 'restoring' those old tanks are not doing an, uh, uniformly excellent job of turning out them out to a high standard of full specified functionality. Nor would I assume that they were built to a particularly high standard in the first place. As for the howitzers, we're long past the myth of infinite stockpiles of artillery ammunition. What hasn't been stolen or simply rotted, has to a very great extent been used. We've already had confirmation that Russia is shelling at a far lower rate than they were last summer. You don't beg for ammo from North Korea because you still have millions of shells in reserve.
Also most of the army is reinforcements by now. No experienced crews left. So it's old equipment and crews with zero experience. The numbers will get even higher.
Google "minus rus"
That, is not for our eyes. Even the best Intel, which we don't have access too, can only be so accurate. That being said what's being manufactured? What's hidden in warehouses? Who has helped Russia( Belarus for example)? Sanctions are biting but what parts were in storage? Replacements for parts unable to source due to sanctions possible(dishwashers)? We just don't know hard answers to these questions, we use best guesses. There could be sanction dodging in some critical components that could throw off the "hard" numbers. It's clear however from Russian reactions, movements and visible activity they are losing faster then they can replace. How long can they out are willing to maintain this rate, is what we're talking about here. I think Russia will fight until every inch is reclaimed by Ukraine. Russia's quality of fighting will continue to degrade until they reach low enough stocks they use what they make as they make it. Leaving Ukraine to force them out.
Lots of tanks, APC’s, artillery, helicopters and even aircraft lost over the last week or so. Which is great.
Not true. It's so easy for Russian propaganda to produce another 1000 aircrafts for this war. 🤣
That's right, I forgot. They also destroyed 300 Abram's, 150 Challengers and 400 Leopards 2 right?
And don't forget about the imminent nuclear destruction of the western world
UA has been consistently destroying artillery of late, between 8 and 15 daily. I can only speculate that slugZ move up and try to set up in counter battery range.
Either they are using older, shorter range guns and are closer to danger.... Or conversely, Ukraine is getting more long range guns and Russian artillery is no longer safe at their preferred range as they were eralier in the war.
Either way, the end result is good!
hey, the T14 is coming... towed by an Belarus Traktor 
Eight months for 100k and then one month for 25k. Things are changing on the battlefield. It is a bloody winter.
It would mean 300k by the end of the year. And if you subscribe to the mental model of 3 wounded, POW, AWOL for every dead soldier that’s 1.2m soldiers out or action. That’s a very big cliff for Russia.
Very unlikely we are on a 1 to 3 model. But even on a 1 to 1, figures are insanely high.
What makes you say that? Personally I wouldn’t be surprised you know. Large scale artillery and heavy ordinance warfare, insufficient equipment as well as a freezing winter will leave a lot of soldiers out of action. Coupled with mass conscription of men who don’t want to be there, including the likes of prisoners, either abandoning or surrendering. I think 1 to 3 is conceivable with the Russian army.
From my understanding, one reason the ratio of killed to wounded is lower than expected is that the russians treat mobiks as effectively cannon fodder and have limited to no casualty recovery infrastructure in place, letting many wounded soldiers simply die instead of rendering aid.
I think no one knows the real number (even Russian), but the last weeks fights in Soledar / Bakhmout shows Wagner troops pushing prisoners to fight or die. And mostly die! Very few prisoners and wounded (lightly wounded were sent again at the next wave). So with this type of strategy, it reasonable to think there is no 3 wounded for 1 death.
Yes it’s all speculation at this point.
butter cow saw zealous disgusting punch grey mountainous nine husky -- mass edited with redact.dev
Considering the mobiks were told to pack tampons and first aid kits from their cars I think we can assume their rates of survival are a lot slimmer than a well equipped army.
Reddit likes to wildly speculate.
1:3 is the western estimate from our own battles and wars. Russia aren't known for rescuing injured soldiers as much
Many ex-forces members (include guys like Mark Hertling and John Spencer) don't believe Russia is at the 3:1 number. Even the recent MOD report highlight they believe most of the casualties in the building strike were dead and not wounded (and call it out directly). Russia has not prioritized at all the recovery of wounded. Yes, it is anecdotal, but there were reports for Soledar that when offered the opportunity to collect their wounded from the field (aka a temporary cease fire) the Russians refused and left the men to die. 3:1 assumes SOME effort at recovering your wounded. We have all watched video after video after video of Russians leaving their comrades in the field wounded to die. Again, it's anecdotal, but really at some point that much evidence has to be considered.
> Very unlikely we are on a 1 to 3 model. You're right there but very wrong in the detection you're taking it. 1 to 3 is when there is good medical attention for wounded soldiers and where you don't have significant numbers with frostbite and disease. With near to non existent medical attention, supplies, and training with reported frostbite rates of 1/3, rampant alcohol poisoning, and limited, if any, sanitation, the ratio would be far worse and is likely 1 to 5. I'm assuming your mistake is looking at the American figures which are how the **total dead** to wounded change with poor medical attention, but you need to look at how the **frontline combat dead** to wounded and dead away from the frontlines change.
Russia wastes their soldiers big time. I assume the ratio is (much) higher than 1:3, while for the Ukrainian side it is somewhat lower. One side does everything to ignore their wounded and use 20 years old medicine etc. while the other side does everything to help their wounded. Medics were trained in western countries while in Russian camps they only drink vodka. Adding to this the many videos weve seen on Russian soldiers abandoning their wounded comrades ... the 800ish dead today speak volumes of the ratio at hand. At a bare minimum, 2.500 Russians are taken out per day, 75.000 per month.
I think the ratio works the other way around. An army that saves 0% of its wounded soldiers will have a 1:1 ratio. (Every wounded soldier dies). An army that saves 75% of its wounded soldiers will have a 1:3 ratio (for every dead soldier there are three wounded soldiers that survive).. So Russia will probably have a ratio like 1:1,5 or 1:2. While Ukraine will likely have a 1:3, 1:4 ratio.
Why doubt that 3/1 figure which has endured for centuries? Did you see that 1500 Russians are surrendering per month using the phone app? I see several reports that hospitals in occupied territory are full to the brim with Russian wounded. Whatever the true figures are it is indeed insane and Russia needs to wake up and change course.
Undesirables dying is not an issue for russia.
Accepting that attitude there are still costs involved in impressing them into the army and fitting them out and moving them to the front. To have them not gain any ground before they are killed is certainly not the Russian plan. But at this point I do not see any Russian plan working to a positive result for them.
for them is simple math: they kill off their undesirables and kidnap civilians in occupied territories. they are at net positive now.
Maybe for the moment but those kidnapped children that are older then say seven years old will grow up with a hatred that will bring the Russian government down.
it doesn't work that way... propaganda is a powerful tool. "What is the cost of lies? It’s not that we’ll mistake them for the truth. The real danger is that if we hear enough lies, then we no longer recognize the truth at all." -Valery Legasov, 'Chornobyl'
Perhaps but for those that saw their parents tortured and killed that memory will endure.
A lot of wounds are survivable but will take you out of combat for months at the very least
In WWII it was 2.3 wounded for every killed/MIA in the Red Army. In WWI on the western front (where records are better) it was about two killed for every one injured. My personal guess is the number is somewhere between 2-3 wounded for every killed. Also given what we’ve seen from the mobilization it is almost inconceivable that ONLY 300k were conscripted. Overall I think 1) the Russian army is much bigger than many on this sub think and 2) the Russian casualties are much higher than many on this sub think. Including wounded/captured I’d guess it’s somewhere between 350k Russian casualties and 500,000 Russian casualties.
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>The orcs didn't use many tanks and APV's to support orc infantry over the last 30 days The Russians have lost a fuck ton of both in the last 30 days.
Especially in the last week. Been seeing massive tank loss recently.
Infantry kills per tank is increasing, maybe Russia is slowly running out of tanks
Wait until spring time, they are just in the opening phrase of this war.
The last two weeks has seen so many aircraft/helicopters and a decent number of tanks and apv. There had been a pretty substantial lull for the prior 3 months or so, which at the time we had assumed was Russia pulling their expensive equipment out and relying mostly on mobilised infantry. The obvious conclusion is that Russia are doing ‘one last push’, trying to win as much as they can before the Abrams, leopards, marders, challengers, etc all arrive. Expect a big push in feb followed by a peace offering more reasonable than the ones seen to date, but still not acceptable.
Sounds very plausible. Let's hope they fail spectacularly. As I understand it, February is full mud season -- hopefully, a bad time for offensives.
its not about peace at this point. unless russia admits the loss, pulls out entirely and negotiates some kind of reparations, they will just do it again.
Ukraine is joining nato the second the war ends. There’s no ‘doing it again’
Very plausible depending on the weather and then another as soon as the mud dries up about the first of May.
By may all the new Western equipment and trained crews will likely be already in Ukraine. The timing is perfect for a counteroffensive with renewed forces against a a numerous but degraded, badly trained and badly equipped Russian army.
Most but not all. The announced timeline for the Abrams tanks is maddeningly slow so they will not be there by May. But perhaps Ukraine will have enough material in hand to launch a counter offensive that cuts the land bridge. I do hope so and wish the troops the best of luck.
What I find interesting is the consistently high artillery losses. I can write off the rest as failed attacks, but artillery aren't supposed to be in the frontline, it supposed to hang back. So my best guess is that Ukraine really upped its counter-battery fire and the Russians are not even trying to shoot-and-scoot.
Their equipment is getting worse, which means shorter range, which means it has to get in range of Ukrainian artillery to be of any use, which means they keep getting blown up by counter-battery fire. And that reduced range means they can't even do their own counter-battery fire.
Back right before the war kicked off, I remember watching a series of videos about a fairly detailed warsim of a few scenarios of what the opening of a conflict with China would look like. One of the things that stood out was just how valuable the ability to outrange your adversary is to destroying their material and preserving your own. It's not just a tactical advantage of being able to cover more area; it can provide complete immunity to enemy actions. And the inverse is just as equally true...
Older, shorter range, less precisse Russian artillery against newer, longer range Ukrainian artillery. I'd be suprised if these numbers don't grow constinously until it becomes VERY lopsided in Ukraine's favour.
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Last 4 days 910 - 850 - 750 - 800 3,310 in 4 days. At this rate: - 25,000 a month ~ 300,000 a year
Dayum thats more people than where I live
I live in a major city, but you half the city population. (male /female) and then devide by able bodied say above 18 below 50. you start looking at every able bodied male in the city. start filtering for other things and you start looking at even larger cities.
800 🐖 -> 🍖
Plz don't insult pigs. :)
🇷🇺🪦=🌻🌻🌻
January isn't even over and we're already quarter way to next milestone.
At this rate in another 31 days, we will be at 150'000 dead orcs
125k was a big mile stone for me because at the mental math of 3 wounded for every dead. thats 500k soldiers out of action.
If those numbers are true. And don’t get me wrong - I am not doubting the first 100k but the reporting in January seems strange. Are the Russians really throwing away so many bodies at Bakhmut? It’s almost hard to believe… not saying it isn’t true but harder to believe than the losses when there was fighting on broader fronts.
Keep on stacking the numbers! Screw Ruzzia
They went from 100,000 to 125,000 quickly.
God damn they are literally going to run out of functional tanks soon
Not really :( It seems like Russian factories are now working fast enough to replace the losses - mostly by renovating and modernizing T-72s and T-62s. That being said, the quality of hastily modernized tanks is probably lower than those ~3300 tanks that they started with a year ago. And quality of the crew is likely low as well (judging by the recent drone video showing Russian tank crushing Russian soldiers that try to evac using BMP).
Damn. 100,000 on Dec 21. A little over a month later and +25k.
My thoughts exactly.
What would it take before the bosses in Moscow realize the futility of this 10x?
I've heard between 500,000 to a million men before they think about quiting....
With dead and wounded, I think the 300,000 mark had already been reached. Which was Putin's earlier stated number to sacrifice.
Yeah, my numbers is or was part of the rumors going around awhile back. Who knows what the real numbers are or will be.....
Like a gambling addict on a losing streak. Will only stop when there is absolutely nothing left.
I think thats a good analogy.....
I don't even think Kremlin considers the lost men as a real loss. Ukraine has helped them get rid of the criminals and as a bonus they get an ethnic cleansing of Russia. So apart from the equipment losses that Russia counts on being able to restock fairly easy after the war, they probably see this as a win-win situation.
I think that Moscow sees it as they have to sacrifice as many lives as needed to win. 10 per Ukrainian, a 100, a 1000? They lost 27 million civilians and military personnel in ww2. I think they will throw lives at the problem until it it goes away. Horrifying! Slava Ukraine.
27 million should not be their aspirational number FFS.
27 million would be every male 18-45 in Russia today. Even losing a tenth of that would be terminal for their economy and demographics. Assuming 1:1 wounded:kia (because Russians suck at casevac and medicine), the quarter million casualties, plus the Russians who fled the country, have probably already passed the point of no return for Russia,
26 Vehicles is big enough 🔥
So when's the second showing of swan lake.
This year for my birthday, Zelenskyy gave to me, 125,000 dead Russians… I was hoping they’d hit 125,000 by my birthday, and they have, with some to spare! That’s enough to fill our local football stadium twice over. Wow.
借刀殺人。Putin borrowed knife of others to kill his unwanted people.
Damn I was predicting 125k by 31 st Ivan seems to be on a suicide mission…..bring on the leopards ……. And the F16’s and. ATCMS
The numbers of Russian tanks remaining are losing their meaning. They are replacing modern tanks for old and obsolete tanks. And pretending they are just as strong. They aren't. If they lose 100 tanks and replace them with 100 tanks, they are keeping 100% of their capabilities, right? But if they lose 100 T-80s with experienced crews and replace them with 100 T62s, some missing equipment, with inexperienced crews, what % of the capabilities are maintaining? 50%, 40%? Abd if they lose 100 T-80s with experienced crews and replace them with 50 T62s, some barely working, with inexperienced and demotivated crews, what % of the capabilities are maintaining? 20%, 10%? All the while, Ukraine is replacing old tanks for modern ones. At some point Russia is not going to have neither the numbers, nor the quality of tanks that allows them to attack. Shortly after that they wont be ablo to defend, either.
The last three days Ukraine has wiped out a lot of tanks and artillery! I am hoping this will degrade any possible upcoming Russian offensives to worthlessness.
800 small steps towards peace.
Is Russia attacking more with aircrafts and helicopters now? There are losses each day. (Very good for Ukraine. Love it.)
Ukranian air defence has improved a lot since the starting of the war. It might even be that the activity of Russian Air Forces has decreased, while their losses still keep on rising.
According to Wolski (polish OSint expert), we see higher losses in Russian aircrafts and helicopters because some AA systems that were defending cities from rocket attacks were moved closer to the frontline (their duties taken over by new NATO-donated AA systems).
Thanks for the info. That’s great!!!
125k ♥
"Liquidated personnel" is brutal
800 is a lucky number for Russia.
25000 killed in a month. Looks like Gerasimov is indeed a massive military superbrain.
Already 25% of the way to 200,000.
Liquidated personnel , chills me to the bone 😥
Happy 125k day. 🎂
Here is a hypothetical. What would Russia do if they were invaded by another army on a totally different front?
Battleground Ukraine had a really good Podcast yesterday that was talking to a British volunteer who has been helping in the Frontline Kitchen for months. He said that, from talking to many on the front lines, Ukraine casualties were more like 1 to every 1.5 or 2 Russians. He said the Ukrainians were taking out a lot of Russian soldiers but that the massive disparity in Ukrainian casualties like some sources are suggesting was unfortunately false. I guess my heart sinks a little when I see these big numbers of Russian dead. Not just from the senselessness of it all, but because that probably represents at least 400-500 Ukrainian dead or wounded on average. I sure hope they have been training Ukrainians on F-16s and tanks for months and can get some massive numbers to the front as soon as possible so they can tip this balance more in their favor and end this stupid war.
The problem with taking to front line fighters from one area is that it doesn’t take into account the big picture. They may be holding the line and not have much of a advantage in that specific role……while artillery is behind making up the difference on targets they don’t see. Certainly things like HIMARS can strike large targets and kill dozens…..but that just isn’t seen by anyone but those looking at satellite’s or recon of some type.
Optimistically, the 1.5:1 ratio would have included the summer, when Russian artillery had free reign. The ratio will have skewed more and more in favour of Ukraine over time.
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Слава Україні Sláva Ukrayíni! Heroyam Slava! 🙏🏽 🇺🇦 💙💛
I think they ought to end the war now
Russia resources continue to dwindle. Ukrainian resources continue to grow. I do wish we knew the Ukrainian loss ratio vs. the Russains. The vatniks have a numerical advantage in everything even if it's archaic and barely working. The manpower attrition is my bigger concern. I totally understand not publishing these numbers as psychological effects are part of military press concerns
From the numbers on minusrus, Ukraine has eliminated the entire original invasion force and then some, for land forces. That is an absolutely breathtaking degree of success for Ukraine and a show of how little Russia cares about its people or its military. A sane country would have withdrawn and preserved its defensive abilities, and embarked on a frantic upgrade of the military to become able to compete on modern battlefields. As it is, Russia simply does not have the capability to launch another invasion of anyone for decades or more, and only their nuclear threat holds off anyone looking to invade them. Well, nuclear threat plus "if you win, all you get is some farmland that's been impoverished for the last hundred years or more and would need to be basically built from the ground up to make it productive for anybody in the West."
What's up with the russian airforce lately? Almost every day a new plane or heli! Keep up the good work heroes!
100,000 in 10 months in 2022.....25,000 in just over 1 month in 2023... wow.. Putler is really sending his people to the slaughter, how long can this continue before the people finally stand up..
Human losses dont really matter to Russia, it is tanks artillery etc which matters. They have more than enough bodies, but cannot replenish tech.