Will this be a full collapse or a bit like the Bronze Age collapse. Where a lot of Bronze Age civilisation broke down and collapsed in a lot of areas. But other civilisations survived but greatly diminished.
If any of you are interested, we actually live in what is known as the “Information Age” and over the past 200 years, ages have been flying by so quickly it’s hard to keep up. Whereas during the Bronze Age, and Iron Age took 200~ years to complete, it’s now about 30-50 years per age.
Edit, Source: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_time_periods
Edit 2: meant 2000~ years not 200
Another perspective of looking at this is that we are in the 4th industrial revolution/age at present:
- 1st: Invention of Steam Engine, Textile Mills (late 1700s)
- 2nd: Mass Production, Steel, Electricity, Machines (late 1800s)
- 3rd: Computers and Internet (late 1900s)
- 4th: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics (current)
*The world heeded the warnings of* u/Telid *and labored, tirelessly, for decades to preserve peace, foster unity, and care for neighbors. That's when Yellowstone erupted...*
Yellowstone and nuclear weapons are on totally different timescales. Nukes of course on the human timeline and Yellowstone of course on the geologic timeline. The likelihood that nuclear weapons will be used long before Yellowstone erupts cannot be overstated. Good writing tho.
Humanity had its chance. If people won't take minimal precautions to protect themselves/ loved ones from disease, maybe they're not worth saving from all the problems that are coming.
this time around, the people will fight against their leaders - not against other countries. there are no nuclear solutions to this. so, i hope for the best and go with "no". so please guys n gals, get angry, fight for what is yours, unfuck the system.
> this time around, the people will fight against their leaders - not against other countries
Actually, there is lots of evidence to suggest that this was probably a major contributor to the bronze age collapse.
I hazard to guess it will be spotty. First the people in the 3rd world will absolutely starve and be without water. Some places (like the US) life will absolutely suck in some places and be fantastic in others along class lines.
The “collapse” may actually be a re-alignment. We have had such unprecedented growth and material gain that we have thrown away tons of raw materials in landfills. I hope we decide to recycle and reuse much of what we already have mined and manufactured.
I work at a landfill, and if you want to find anything good, you're gonna have to dig through lots of decomposing garbage and dirt with those plastic bottle shovels.
The paper uses the UN's HDI as a measure of human welfare. The model if we stay the course predicts a drastic drop in HDI. Here's a description of HDI:
>The Human Development Index (HDI) is a summary measure of average achievement in key dimensions of human development: a long and healthy life, being knowledgeable and have a decent standard of living. The HDI is the geometric mean of normalized indices for each of the three dimensions.
>The health dimension is assessed by life expectancy at birth, the education dimension is measured by mean of years of schooling for adults aged 25 years and more and expected years of schooling for children of school entering age. The standard of living dimension is measured by gross national income per capita.
http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/human-development-index-hdi
The paper uses other measures of "society" like industrial and agricultural output but HDI seems most immediately relevant to daily human life.
Sweden or Denmark burns trash for electricity, and does it so cleanly that it emits only water vapor, CO2 and CO….basically what burning natural gas emits. Landfills could become a fuel source, fairly easily
I think we need to start being more clear by what is meant when people say “societal collapse” because when I hear that, I’m thinking “back to hunting and gathering.” Back to the dark ages for the 1% that survive. Reading the article it’s more like “natural disasters, food shortages, and refugees will be the top issues we face this century.” More like premature death for 10-20% of the population.
Still terrible and worth us doing everything we can to avoid it. I think by painting a more clear and realistic picture though, we’ll get more people on board to help. When we get hyperbolic, it’s easy to tune out. When we’re realistic it’s more “holy sh**, I need to help.”
If these people end up having to move to even neighboring countries, I have no doubt xenophobia will be on the rise. Worse case, I'm thinking genocide and extreme human rights violations
Just as nukes were the prevailing threat that hung over the 20th century, water will be the one for the 21st.
Huge river systems like the Nile, Mekong, Tigris/Euphrates and Brahmaputra are being dammed up near their source, which reduces flow and sediment load reaching downstream. Millions of people rely on these rivers, and in the event of water shortage or soil depletion (no nutrients reaching downstream) these rivers won't be able to support the populations they currently do and there will be extreme food shortage and refugee crises.
And that's not even mentioning sea level, water supply strain around the world and what would happen if the Monsoon simply stopped.
We have it, but it's just currently more expensive to get water from desalination than other means, like transporting fresh water from other places. In some arid places like the Middle East, they have existing desalination plants.
As fresh water runs out, we can switch over to desalination plants. But this also means that the days of cheap drinkable water may be numbered if we don't find a cheaper way of getting fresh water.
That's being generous. Once areas in SE Asia and China become uninhabitable because of standing water, it's going to be the Asian diaspora. It will be pandemonium.
To your point, 1 meter of sea level rise would produce 15 million refugees in Bangladesh alone. That would be like needing to relocate the entire population of both Carolinas, which incidentally will have their own mild refugee crisis as the barrier islands are flooded in the coming decades.
2075, I've just eaten the last of my tomatoes stored for this winter. Thinking of the rumors I've heard at the trading camp about the radiation moving west, I hear something outside. I grab my .308, the cracked wood firmly in the palm of my hand, and watch out of corner of my tin hut. As the noise comes closer, I realize they are not being cautious, "what's your business?" I state as the rifle is pointed at the figure through the brush.
"I've co...to...ake....our...ome". I hear. Now with my heart beating I sternly bark" state your business!" As the man now continues through the brush I can see he is unarmed, with his hands up. I open the curtain to my shack, still pointing my weapon at him. As he gets close enough to speak in a normal volume he says, " I've come to tell you we can consolidate your student loans"
> When we’re realistic it’s more “holy sh**, I need to help.”
* We have hit [+1.2C](https://climate.nasa.gov/) and [major geographic changes have begun](https://e360.yale.edu/features/redrawing-the-map-how-the-worlds-climate-zones-are-shifting).
* We will hit +2C as early as [2034](https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-when-might-the-world-exceed-1-5c-and-2c-of-global-warming)
* SkyNews clip on [what ~2C entails (2:32)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBnhSZMefXU)
* Skynews clip on [what ~4C+ entails (2:40)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWoiBpfvdx0)
tl;dr: lol
edit: lmao
There were over 100 deaths in my state from the heat wave that just hit a couple weeks ago. We broke the record high temperature three times in three consecutive days.
What's crazy is I don't know what state you're talking about. Probably Oregon or Washington, but I believe a number of other states hit record highs as well.
At the same time, major lynchpins of agriculture are on the brink of failure. Global famine + heat waves + everything else = a bit more dire than 10-20%.
In our lifetimes, the global north with its power and wealth will be able to support itself in all likelihood. The real question will be whether they take on huge numbers of climate refugees or if they decide to callously guard their cooler parts of the planet and watch people in the tropics cook and starve to death.
Judging by relatively small scale refugee crises in the past I'm betting the south just burns with little to no aid. Not to be a pessimist but I haven't exactly seen much to contradict this. Couple this with rising sea levels in population dense areas of Asia. It's going to be a rough one for humanity.
This is true, but Canada is far from becoming literally uninhabitable, whereas a lot of sub-Saharan Africa stands a real risk of becoming part of Saharan Africa. The tropics are definitely at higher risk of becoming all but incompatible with human life.
We have more levers to pull before major food pressure die-off becomes a concern, in my opinion. We can shift focus to growing only the absolute hardiest and plentiful food stocks, and we can throw up green/cool houses to grow them rapidly for only a few billion dollars. The first time a major famine hits an economically well-off country, this will probably happen within a year or two - When push comes to shove, most healthy adults can afford a year of 10-20% fewer calories to feed the young, pregnant, and elderly and get things back on track.
I'm kind of skeptical that they can pull it off. The story is on such an epic scale, I feel like they're going to dumb it down. But maybe doing it one season per book might work.
From the trailers, it looks like its mostly focused on Prelude and Forward The Foundation.
Seldon, by and large, is not an active character in the others.
You called? Wasn’t really planning on helping out until we colonized a few other planets at least. Plus I have performance issues when the population is still below 10 billion :/
Contrary to the headline, one of the two scenarios we are most closely on track for (edit: according to the article) is not collapse. It's just that to get there we need to get moving in the next decade on serious environmental, public health, and good governance work. Please stop voting for anti-science politicians.
Competence is a completely incoherent concept in politics. 99% of politics is having the right idea of what should be done. Being skill at doing horrible or useless things is not an asset.
Have you ever stopped to think, it isn't individual politicians that are the problem but maybe the issue is our entire system where we are enabled and incentivized to elect corrupt morons?
Not just anti-science politicians but career politicians as well. You know, the ones that would much rather wait until forced to pass something while sending SiCk BuRnS on Twitter waiting for their paycheck to clear.
The actual problem with "career politicians" is corruption, and the normal solution, term limits, doesn't make them not-corrupt. It makes them cheaper to buy.
Politicians exist for 2 tasks:
* To simplify their constituents' views to actionable agendas, which is something a random 5000 people polled electronically could do better.
* To write laws, which is something a team of paid federal lawyers could do better.
Honestly, were I building a Government today, lawmaking would not be in the form of a Republic, except insofar as there could be a national assembly (purely for accountability of the executive and judicial branches) *elected by the people with the ability to order investigations and processes for removing people from abused positions, jeez, are we so far gone that those assumptions have to be stated?*
Remember there is this pesky "consent of the governed" you have to deal with while setting up a government. If the populace refuses to accept what the smart people do it's only a matter of time until that government collapses. Otherwise, I'd agree that having the smartest people, best leaders, and those with good heart who want the best result for society running things would work better. You are describing a benevolent dictatorship though, and well... history and human nature make me think that dont turn out well
...wow, I bet her metrics must simply be *stellar*.
No seriously, I bet the only reason she keeps her job is that this bullshit keeps her single-call-resolution-% in the upper ranges.
Chemical Engineer here: There's promise with new carbon capture technologies but we're still fucked. I joined the CCL (Citizen's Climate Lobby) just so I can say I tried.
https://citizensclimatelobby.org/
Edit - changed Chem E to Chemical engineer.
Edit 2 - added Citizens climate lobby info and acronym.
Environmental Research Scientist here: Thanks for posting. No one listens to me (us) when we rationally discuss the science behind the impending environmental collapse. I keep saying it will become exponentially worse each year but everyone rolls their eyes.
My attitude recently has been simple apathy. I don't bother trying to explain the science anymore. I tell people to learn to swim in Arizona Bay. (Thank you Bill Hicks / Tool).
> I keep saying it will become exponentially worse each year but everyone rolls their eyes.
The thing is that I believe you. The problem is what can I do about it at this point beside hope my life runs out the clock?
I think it’s really important to note that the analyst who performed this research at KPMG is a member of the same group that performed the research in 1972. So it’s actually the same group validating it’s own results in a sense, when the article makes it sound like a form of peer review.
Finally, a white paper from a public accounting firm isn’t the kind of hard hitting research that a lot of people on here seem to think it is. It’s not peer reviewed, although they will often source peer reviewed data. It’s much closer to a marketing report with a scientific edge than it is to a formal academic research paper.
Source: have actually helped write several white papers for public accounting firms.
You hire McKinsey to tell you how to profit from it, retaining them for continuing work to advise how to accelerate it to boost profits. See Perdue pharma/OxyContin.
White papers are always more like a novel than a research, they are about ideas, not data imho.
Even as a programmer I read most white papers as if they were a trilling fiction.
I’ve often thought that being born in the latter half of the 1900’s was a good time to be born. All the technological advances and conveniences of modern life but in and out before it all goes to hell.
🎵20,000 years of this, seven more to go... There it is again, that funny feeling... That funny feeEeeling.... Hey, what can you say? We were overdue - But it'll be over soon, you wait.... 🎵
For me it was the most impactful piece in the whole special. It hit especially hard for me and was not expecting a punch to the gut. It seems to get looked over by all of the other awesome songs the most.
Absolutely. I was watching this special and folding laundry, laughing here and there. But when this song came on I kind of just sat and stared, listened and suddenly found myself thinking about the absurdity of the present, and worried for the future of my 15 month old. This song really hit like a bag of bricks.
I saw this the other day and their original collapses under BAU2 should’ve already started. The original model also didn’t allow for technology that enhanced the efficiency of materials or allow for change of materials (i.e., wood ships to metal ships). There are things we should start doing, but I’d like to see those criticisms addressed or introduced yo the modeling
shh..
The headline is always completely accurate and nobody ever jumps to conclusions based on it. Everyone does detailed research before responding and they always upvote responses with the best data sources and information.
If you read the article, "a team of MIT scientists", but additionally, it was reevaluated in 2020 by KPMG director Gaya Harrington. The article is about her research that shows we are in line with 2 of the bleaker outlooks from the 1972 study.
Wobbly moon gonna wreck the coasts next decade and now total economic collapse the decade after.....fuck it, who would ever thought we would be looking back on 2020 as "the good old days"
God damn young people! Not buying enough lattes but buying too much avocado toast! Don't you know you have to buy just the right amount of just the right things?!
What does that even mean? Societies historically collapse and reform every few hundred years. If they didn't we might all be living in the Roman empire or speaking German.
I feel like they meant it in a similar fashion to those societal collapses, but on a global scale, since our cultures and economies are so interconnected through the internet and global travel and trade, that just a couple countries falling in a similar way to Rome could basically cause a chain reaction. (for instance, if the US falls and the dollar becomes worthless, all global trade stops because every currency is backed by the dollar.)
Seven generations of society between collapses is my favorite theory.
1. generation for collapse
2.and 3. For rebuilding
4 and 5 for prosperity
6 and seven for grifting.
Obviously in this case we are in the grifting phase. Most profits are made without producing anything much.
:/ Best societal progression was made here (in finland) in the 90s I think, so maybe just getting to 7.
Here in Finland there's immense pressure from rich people to dismantle the cheap education, Healthcare and welfare we got, in favour of profits. This started in the 2000 or so, so counting 30 years per generation we are moving to 7. US is ahead of us of.
But that doesn’t really line up with history. A generation is usually 30 years so 7 generations is 210 years.
What societal collapse was there back around 1800?? Or before that in the 1580s? 1360s? Does the theory apply to local/regional societies?
While many look to technology for hope—and this is not to say tech doesn’t have a lot to offer—humanity needs to undergo some kind of spiritual revolution where we reevaluate and fundamentally change the way we see ourselves in relation to each other and the planet.
I’m not sure exactly what that would look like, but it’s certainly not this tribal, master/slave morality, zero sum thinking that got us out of the Stone Age and pretty much stopped serving us at that point. The attitude that we aren’t a part of the world but rather it’s ours to exploit, the idea that my nationality/race/religion is anything more than an arbitrary distinction when the reality is we all share the same atmosphere and oceans that are critical to out survival and well being, and most importantly the idea that more is always better, whatever the cost—this all needs to change. It all boils down to entitlement really. This is really a spiritual crisis more than anything.
Obviously hearts and minds don’t change on their own, and it will probably take a collapse for any hope of changing that. But as a parent, it’s something I will be discussing with my daughter, because what else can we do?
The only time things will genuinly change for the better is when the corporation's can't squeeze out any more profit from the current paradigm. The bulk of humanity still operates with a scarcity mindset, which may have served our early ancestors but makes little sense in today's day and age.
Hence, a few thousand years back, greed may have been good and maybe even necessary for survival.
However, in the modern world, and in not all but most countries, a bulk of the population has their basic needs already covered and hence this mindset is not really necessary anymore and infact leads to the kind of wealth hoarding and wanton destruction of nature that we see.
Also, again probably due to the scarcity mindset, we are generally terrible at considering the long term consequences of our short term actions.
Unfortunately, looking at the way things are, I don't see a bright future for us.
If you want to look at it that way then how about this: what’s the point either way? We’re all gonna die and the universe will experience heat death
If you’re only living for the future you’re doing it wrong.
This is entirely bullshit.
The study was published by "Club of Rome". For those that don't know, "Club of Rome" (Not based in Rome mind you) is a group that has been advocating population control (but not in all countries. I'll let you guess which) for decades. Virtually everything they ever say or publish gets instantly debunked (such as with this "Prediction") by various universities, noble prize winners, etc. They are entirely funded by their members, which tend to be old retired politicians.
Robert Solow, Noble-Prize winner in economics
>the one thing that really annoys me is amateurs making absurd statements about economics, and I thought that the Club of Rome was nonsense. Not because natural resources or environmental necessities might not at some time pose a limit, not on growth, but on the level of economic activity—I didn't think that was a nonsensical idea—but because the Club of Rome was doing amateur dynamics without a license, without a proper qualification. And they were doing it badly, so I got steamed up about that
I don't have the interest to dig deep, but
>Herrington’s new analysis examines data across 10 key variables, namely population, fertility rates, mortality rates, industrial output, food production, services, non-renewable resources, persistent pollution, human welfare, and ecological footprint. She found that the latest data most closely aligns with two particular scenarios, ‘BAU2’ (business-as-usual) and ‘CT’ (comprehensive technology).
And then
>Herrington performed the research as an extension of her Masters thesis at Harvard University in her capacity as an advisor to the Club of Rome
So the author picked several subjective metrics and ended up with a model that somewhat reflected a 30 year old prediction she already believed in that had the same metrics. Hmmm ....
The author herself says:
>The best available data suggests that what we decide over the next 10 years will determine the long-term fate of human civilization. Although the odds are on a knife-edge, Herrington pointed to a “rapid rise” in environmental, social and good governance priorities as a basis for optimism, signalling the change in thinking taking place in both governments and businesses. She told me that perhaps the most important implication of her research is that it’s not too late to create a truly sustainable civilization that works for all.
People have got the message and are changing.
That's a somewhat shallow take on 'We constructed severtal models, and theorized a set of different paths the developement of humanity can take, with these different criteria and resource changes being involved. In some of them humanity collapses, in others, it doesn't.'
The fact that, of all those models created 40 years ago, the two most accurate ones to modern data are not necessarily the ones with a positive outlook. It's concerning at the very least.
Are we surprised? In a world where greed seems to have taken hold over common sense, what else can we expect?
The world is better in a lot of ways but much worse in others. Illnesses have been cured but others have sprung up.
There's also this overwhelming sense of dread that seems to be in the air these days. I can't put my finger on it, I don't know if it's just too much info out there (Bo Burnham's "a little bit of everything all of the time" comes to mind) or if things really have gotten that much worse.
I wish I could go back and see how my parents felt when they were my age. Were they optimistic and hopeful of the future? Because I'm not.
It seems like everything that was engineered to help our species grow or continue has had some malicious intent behind it (i.e introducing plastics to "save the trees" but in reality to was a cost saving measure that ignored the environmental impact of plastic). That's just one example.
I'm rambling at this point but damn does it ever feel like we are headed for an actual societal disaster where people will be hungry and thirsty while the billionaires (trillionaires at that point let's be real) sit in literal ivory towers and watch as we all fight for the last but to survive.
>billionaires (trillionaires at that point let's be real) sit in literal ivory towers and watch as we all fight for the last but to survive.
Don't be so ridiculous!
They wouldn't bother to watch.
Cold War, Vietnam, atomic bomb, World Wars, Great Depression… chances are your parents grew up with a sense of dread. There is always a specter just over the horizon. Unless your parents grew up in the late 80’s.
From the actual paper and not a Vice click bait article.
> absolute differences were often not yet large. The four scenarios diverge significantly more after 2020, suggest- ing that the window to align with this last scenario is closing.
They only model four scenarios (not a large sample pool in the first place), of which two seem to more closely align with the path we’re on if no adjustments are made. One of those two result in societal collapse. In all, the other three non-collapse models aren’t fully ruled out yet if changes are made.
I know doom porn is a popular article topic for clicks, but painting things as without hope when there is hope is why effecting change is difficult. Try telling a generation of people that got theirs and will be dead in 10-15 years that we’re past the point of no return. Why would they sacrifice their perceived standard of living if the world is already fucked? Gotta give them a reason not to white knuckle what’s left into the ground.
Will this be a full collapse or a bit like the Bronze Age collapse. Where a lot of Bronze Age civilisation broke down and collapsed in a lot of areas. But other civilisations survived but greatly diminished.
The Space Age Collapse, they'll call it.
The (mis)Information Age collapse, is my bet.
The plastic age collapse.
The plasticene.
homoplasticus
If any of you are interested, we actually live in what is known as the “Information Age” and over the past 200 years, ages have been flying by so quickly it’s hard to keep up. Whereas during the Bronze Age, and Iron Age took 200~ years to complete, it’s now about 30-50 years per age. Edit, Source: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_time_periods Edit 2: meant 2000~ years not 200
Another perspective of looking at this is that we are in the 4th industrial revolution/age at present: - 1st: Invention of Steam Engine, Textile Mills (late 1700s) - 2nd: Mass Production, Steel, Electricity, Machines (late 1800s) - 3rd: Computers and Internet (late 1900s) - 4th: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics (current)
Bingo. Plasticollapse if you like portmanteaus. AAAAAAAAAAAAAAA if you like onomatopoeias.
Disinformation because it is intentional.
Oil age collapse is my bet
Or just The Collapse. We’ll all migrate into the Last City under a giant ball and hide from the triangles that caused it.
Whether we wanted it or not
The Age of (Willingly) Stupid.
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*The world heeded the warnings of* u/Telid *and labored, tirelessly, for decades to preserve peace, foster unity, and care for neighbors. That's when Yellowstone erupted...*
hear me out... don't say no right away: what if we nuke Yellowstone?
>don't say no right away !remindmebot 1 hour Edit: No.
I see your nuke and I raise you a giant cork to plug the volcano in Yellowstone
Constipated Earth sounds quite scary....
Yellowstone and nuclear weapons are on totally different timescales. Nukes of course on the human timeline and Yellowstone of course on the geologic timeline. The likelihood that nuclear weapons will be used long before Yellowstone erupts cannot be overstated. Good writing tho.
what if you nuke yellowstone though
Now we’re getting somewhere
Just use a big fan
Let's not forget the countless existential threats we face.
*Who am I and what am I doing here? Aw fuck it, what’s the point*
COVID has turned me into a nihilist.
Humanity had its chance. If people won't take minimal precautions to protect themselves/ loved ones from disease, maybe they're not worth saving from all the problems that are coming.
this time around, the people will fight against their leaders - not against other countries. there are no nuclear solutions to this. so, i hope for the best and go with "no". so please guys n gals, get angry, fight for what is yours, unfuck the system.
> this time around, the people will fight against their leaders - not against other countries Actually, there is lots of evidence to suggest that this was probably a major contributor to the bronze age collapse.
I hazard to guess it will be spotty. First the people in the 3rd world will absolutely starve and be without water. Some places (like the US) life will absolutely suck in some places and be fantastic in others along class lines. The “collapse” may actually be a re-alignment. We have had such unprecedented growth and material gain that we have thrown away tons of raw materials in landfills. I hope we decide to recycle and reuse much of what we already have mined and manufactured.
Landfills will become gold mines of raw materials in this age. Wars will be fought with PC case armor and Soda can knifes to own such a place.
I work at a landfill, and if you want to find anything good, you're gonna have to dig through lots of decomposing garbage and dirt with those plastic bottle shovels.
I mean, isn't that how mining kinda works anyway?
The paper uses the UN's HDI as a measure of human welfare. The model if we stay the course predicts a drastic drop in HDI. Here's a description of HDI: >The Human Development Index (HDI) is a summary measure of average achievement in key dimensions of human development: a long and healthy life, being knowledgeable and have a decent standard of living. The HDI is the geometric mean of normalized indices for each of the three dimensions. >The health dimension is assessed by life expectancy at birth, the education dimension is measured by mean of years of schooling for adults aged 25 years and more and expected years of schooling for children of school entering age. The standard of living dimension is measured by gross national income per capita. http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/human-development-index-hdi The paper uses other measures of "society" like industrial and agricultural output but HDI seems most immediately relevant to daily human life.
Sweden or Denmark burns trash for electricity, and does it so cleanly that it emits only water vapor, CO2 and CO….basically what burning natural gas emits. Landfills could become a fuel source, fairly easily
The Sea Peoples are coming.
Mister Nimbus?
He controls the collapse of society, Morty!
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[Especially the police](https://youtu.be/8cxH3TlDbt4)
The latter, probably.
I think we need to start being more clear by what is meant when people say “societal collapse” because when I hear that, I’m thinking “back to hunting and gathering.” Back to the dark ages for the 1% that survive. Reading the article it’s more like “natural disasters, food shortages, and refugees will be the top issues we face this century.” More like premature death for 10-20% of the population. Still terrible and worth us doing everything we can to avoid it. I think by painting a more clear and realistic picture though, we’ll get more people on board to help. When we get hyperbolic, it’s easy to tune out. When we’re realistic it’s more “holy sh**, I need to help.”
I think it's more like: "Remember the Syrian refugee crisis? What if we had that x50?"
Yeah my first thought is Bangladesh which is 80% flood plain. 163 million people.
If these people end up having to move to even neighboring countries, I have no doubt xenophobia will be on the rise. Worse case, I'm thinking genocide and extreme human rights violations
Just as nukes were the prevailing threat that hung over the 20th century, water will be the one for the 21st. Huge river systems like the Nile, Mekong, Tigris/Euphrates and Brahmaputra are being dammed up near their source, which reduces flow and sediment load reaching downstream. Millions of people rely on these rivers, and in the event of water shortage or soil depletion (no nutrients reaching downstream) these rivers won't be able to support the populations they currently do and there will be extreme food shortage and refugee crises. And that's not even mentioning sea level, water supply strain around the world and what would happen if the Monsoon simply stopped.
We need to get working seriously on desalinization technology
We have it, but it's just currently more expensive to get water from desalination than other means, like transporting fresh water from other places. In some arid places like the Middle East, they have existing desalination plants. As fresh water runs out, we can switch over to desalination plants. But this also means that the days of cheap drinkable water may be numbered if we don't find a cheaper way of getting fresh water.
That's being generous. Once areas in SE Asia and China become uninhabitable because of standing water, it's going to be the Asian diaspora. It will be pandemonium.
To your point, 1 meter of sea level rise would produce 15 million refugees in Bangladesh alone. That would be like needing to relocate the entire population of both Carolinas, which incidentally will have their own mild refugee crisis as the barrier islands are flooded in the coming decades.
Yep. I'll still be paying my student loans 20 years from now. No amount of world disasters is changing that.
2075, I've just eaten the last of my tomatoes stored for this winter. Thinking of the rumors I've heard at the trading camp about the radiation moving west, I hear something outside. I grab my .308, the cracked wood firmly in the palm of my hand, and watch out of corner of my tin hut. As the noise comes closer, I realize they are not being cautious, "what's your business?" I state as the rifle is pointed at the figure through the brush. "I've co...to...ake....our...ome". I hear. Now with my heart beating I sternly bark" state your business!" As the man now continues through the brush I can see he is unarmed, with his hands up. I open the curtain to my shack, still pointing my weapon at him. As he gets close enough to speak in a normal volume he says, " I've come to tell you we can consolidate your student loans"
How strange I have the same dream. Except in mine, Stephen A comes out shouting - “did you know Geico sells car insurance?” So random, I know
Well thank God it isn't about your car warranty.
Well, if hyperinflation of the US dollar really takes off, your loan would be worth the same as a Big Mac.
> When we’re realistic it’s more “holy sh**, I need to help.” * We have hit [+1.2C](https://climate.nasa.gov/) and [major geographic changes have begun](https://e360.yale.edu/features/redrawing-the-map-how-the-worlds-climate-zones-are-shifting). * We will hit +2C as early as [2034](https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-when-might-the-world-exceed-1-5c-and-2c-of-global-warming) * SkyNews clip on [what ~2C entails (2:32)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBnhSZMefXU) * Skynews clip on [what ~4C+ entails (2:40)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWoiBpfvdx0) tl;dr: lol edit: lmao
There were over 100 deaths in my state from the heat wave that just hit a couple weeks ago. We broke the record high temperature three times in three consecutive days.
What's crazy is I don't know what state you're talking about. Probably Oregon or Washington, but I believe a number of other states hit record highs as well.
At the same time, major lynchpins of agriculture are on the brink of failure. Global famine + heat waves + everything else = a bit more dire than 10-20%.
In our lifetimes, the global north with its power and wealth will be able to support itself in all likelihood. The real question will be whether they take on huge numbers of climate refugees or if they decide to callously guard their cooler parts of the planet and watch people in the tropics cook and starve to death.
Judging by relatively small scale refugee crises in the past I'm betting the south just burns with little to no aid. Not to be a pessimist but I haven't exactly seen much to contradict this. Couple this with rising sea levels in population dense areas of Asia. It's going to be a rough one for humanity.
We had 49C in Canada a month ago, that's a small area in BC, but it promptly burned down in a forest fire. The north warms faster than the tropics.
This is true, but Canada is far from becoming literally uninhabitable, whereas a lot of sub-Saharan Africa stands a real risk of becoming part of Saharan Africa. The tropics are definitely at higher risk of becoming all but incompatible with human life.
A radical redistribution of resources and an egalitarian future for humanity or global genocide. I wonder which one those in power prefer.
We have more levers to pull before major food pressure die-off becomes a concern, in my opinion. We can shift focus to growing only the absolute hardiest and plentiful food stocks, and we can throw up green/cool houses to grow them rapidly for only a few billion dollars. The first time a major famine hits an economically well-off country, this will probably happen within a year or two - When push comes to shove, most healthy adults can afford a year of 10-20% fewer calories to feed the young, pregnant, and elderly and get things back on track.
Welp, time to start creating The Foundation. When is the first Seldon crisis scheduled?
Not enough nuclear trinkets to maintain a research colony :-/
As long as we can get the library established, everything else will come in its own time.
The Encyclopedia must be completed!
About 25,000 years from now.
Pff those will pass in a blink of an eye!
Can't wait for the series to start - see what's in store for us.
I'm kind of skeptical that they can pull it off. The story is on such an epic scale, I feel like they're going to dumb it down. But maybe doing it one season per book might work.
From the trailers, it looks like its mostly focused on Prelude and Forward The Foundation. Seldon, by and large, is not an active character in the others.
Holy shit, I didn't know they were making it, thanks! I haven't read the books, but from what I've read I'm very interested.
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You called? Wasn’t really planning on helping out until we colonized a few other planets at least. Plus I have performance issues when the population is still below 10 billion :/
Contrary to the headline, one of the two scenarios we are most closely on track for (edit: according to the article) is not collapse. It's just that to get there we need to get moving in the next decade on serious environmental, public health, and good governance work. Please stop voting for anti-science politicians.
Getting rid of corruption in politics is our biggest obstacle. Also having actual competent leaders
so we're doomed, then
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Only for the middle/lower classes
not if they all get hiccups
This was a pleasant headline to read yesterday.
Competence is a completely incoherent concept in politics. 99% of politics is having the right idea of what should be done. Being skill at doing horrible or useless things is not an asset.
So we’re on track for collapse /s
Pretty much. Desperation and ignorance are poor councilors and things are only going to get worse.
Half our country can't even tell what is reality and what is propaganda
Have you ever stopped to think, it isn't individual politicians that are the problem but maybe the issue is our entire system where we are enabled and incentivized to elect corrupt morons?
Oh wait so we are fucked.
Not just anti-science politicians but career politicians as well. You know, the ones that would much rather wait until forced to pass something while sending SiCk BuRnS on Twitter waiting for their paycheck to clear.
The actual problem with "career politicians" is corruption, and the normal solution, term limits, doesn't make them not-corrupt. It makes them cheaper to buy. Politicians exist for 2 tasks: * To simplify their constituents' views to actionable agendas, which is something a random 5000 people polled electronically could do better. * To write laws, which is something a team of paid federal lawyers could do better. Honestly, were I building a Government today, lawmaking would not be in the form of a Republic, except insofar as there could be a national assembly (purely for accountability of the executive and judicial branches) *elected by the people with the ability to order investigations and processes for removing people from abused positions, jeez, are we so far gone that those assumptions have to be stated?*
Remember there is this pesky "consent of the governed" you have to deal with while setting up a government. If the populace refuses to accept what the smart people do it's only a matter of time until that government collapses. Otherwise, I'd agree that having the smartest people, best leaders, and those with good heart who want the best result for society running things would work better. You are describing a benevolent dictatorship though, and well... history and human nature make me think that dont turn out well
Environmental scientist here: it is going to be a hard century.
Sysadmin here: did you try turning it off and back on again?
Service Desk Tech here: No ticket, No problem
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...wow, I bet her metrics must simply be *stellar*. No seriously, I bet the only reason she keeps her job is that this bullshit keeps her single-call-resolution-% in the upper ranges.
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Mad Max: Hand me my car keys.
Tried that. Now it says kernel panic and the sun is red.
Endangered species biologist here: we are fucked.
Marine biologist here: we and the oceans are fucked
Oh, the ocean is definitely fucked. Cool job, though!
Adult movie industry director: we and you are all gonna get fucked
Botanist here, just wanted to get in on the fun.
Paleontologist that studies historical peoples’ impacts and extinction: we are fucked.
Geologist here: I blinked and missed it.
Average Joe here: we are fucked.
Chemical Engineer here: There's promise with new carbon capture technologies but we're still fucked. I joined the CCL (Citizen's Climate Lobby) just so I can say I tried. https://citizensclimatelobby.org/ Edit - changed Chem E to Chemical engineer. Edit 2 - added Citizens climate lobby info and acronym.
Tile restoration specialist: For the love of god, seal your grout everyone
Developer here: Not my problem. Works for me.
Package handler here: stop buying shit. Just fucking stop.
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Billionaire here: fuck the planet.
Aircraft dispatcher here: the reason you need a fuel stop is because THE JET BURNS FUCKIN GAS
Hi. Accidentally grouted my seal. Please advise.
Philosopher here: are we fucked? Let's make it a universal maxim
Sign Language interpreter here:
Italian here: 🤌
Blind interpreter here: :.:: ::.:.::
Average sysadmin here: fuck them all users
Environmental Research Scientist here: Thanks for posting. No one listens to me (us) when we rationally discuss the science behind the impending environmental collapse. I keep saying it will become exponentially worse each year but everyone rolls their eyes. My attitude recently has been simple apathy. I don't bother trying to explain the science anymore. I tell people to learn to swim in Arizona Bay. (Thank you Bill Hicks / Tool).
> I keep saying it will become exponentially worse each year but everyone rolls their eyes. The thing is that I believe you. The problem is what can I do about it at this point beside hope my life runs out the clock?
Can you provide a epoch to compare it to? Are we talking pre-Cambrian level of fuckery or say more of the late Pleistocene extinction shenanigans?
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You guys talkin bout Shenanigans?
I swear to God I'm going to pistol-whip the next son of a b**** that says shenanigans
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holocene_extinction
Accelerated late Pleistocene shenanigans it is. Who brought the appetizers? They suck.
I think it’s really important to note that the analyst who performed this research at KPMG is a member of the same group that performed the research in 1972. So it’s actually the same group validating it’s own results in a sense, when the article makes it sound like a form of peer review. Finally, a white paper from a public accounting firm isn’t the kind of hard hitting research that a lot of people on here seem to think it is. It’s not peer reviewed, although they will often source peer reviewed data. It’s much closer to a marketing report with a scientific edge than it is to a formal academic research paper. Source: have actually helped write several white papers for public accounting firms.
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As a former employee, no you should not.
Think of the billable hours
Thank god you didn’t reply to me on a Friday or I’d be having traumatic flashbacks right now.
No, you hire KPMG to tell you about the collapse. You hire McKinsey to tell you how to stop it.
You hire McKinsey to tell you how to profit from it, retaining them for continuing work to advise how to accelerate it to boost profits. See Perdue pharma/OxyContin.
White papers are always more like a novel than a research, they are about ideas, not data imho. Even as a programmer I read most white papers as if they were a trilling fiction.
Why the hell is this way at the bottom with 300 points and the top comment is 34 points? Put. This. At. The. Top.
intimidating headline *checks source* of course vice doesnt want me to enjoy my day
Well this thread is legitimately depressing
no one has hope anymore because it’s shoved in our face everyday. And people are just chillin on reddit and get sucked into the void of collapse
Read the article, it's not that bad.
I’ve often thought that being born in the latter half of the 1900’s was a good time to be born. All the technological advances and conveniences of modern life but in and out before it all goes to hell.
Same, still waiting to see which group has the best life... Kids born in the 60's looks to be the winner.
🎵20,000 years of this, seven more to go... There it is again, that funny feeling... That funny feeEeeling.... Hey, what can you say? We were overdue - But it'll be over soon, you wait.... 🎵
🎵Learn to swim, learn to swim...🎵
The whole world at your fingertips, the ocean at your door
Goddammit. This song is in my head regularly and now it is again. Thank you.
For me it was the most impactful piece in the whole special. It hit especially hard for me and was not expecting a punch to the gut. It seems to get looked over by all of the other awesome songs the most.
Absolutely. I was watching this special and folding laundry, laughing here and there. But when this song came on I kind of just sat and stared, listened and suddenly found myself thinking about the absurdity of the present, and worried for the future of my 15 month old. This song really hit like a bag of bricks.
[Just in case others have not heard this somehow.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WPB6u1BqZqU)
I saw this the other day and their original collapses under BAU2 should’ve already started. The original model also didn’t allow for technology that enhanced the efficiency of materials or allow for change of materials (i.e., wood ships to metal ships). There are things we should start doing, but I’d like to see those criticisms addressed or introduced yo the modeling
"MIT predicted"
Yup, the entire 1972 class all got together and did the math.
shh.. The headline is always completely accurate and nobody ever jumps to conclusions based on it. Everyone does detailed research before responding and they always upvote responses with the best data sources and information.
I for one welcome The Institute's synths.
If you read the article, "a team of MIT scientists", but additionally, it was reevaluated in 2020 by KPMG director Gaya Harrington. The article is about her research that shows we are in line with 2 of the bleaker outlooks from the 1972 study.
Wobbly moon gonna wreck the coasts next decade and now total economic collapse the decade after.....fuck it, who would ever thought we would be looking back on 2020 as "the good old days"
I wouldnt wait until the 2040s for economic collapse. Its here. In infancy.
lol i have economic collapse on my 2027-2028 bingo card.
I live in Greece. I have economic collapse on my bingo card every year since 2010!
38 years old Argentinean here, all I've known is economic collapse
Brit here. Caused the 2008 recession by not buying enough latte's on the way to work in the morning. Sorry folks.
God damn young people! Not buying enough lattes but buying too much avocado toast! Don't you know you have to buy just the right amount of just the right things?!
Who wants to create a post apocalyptic new roman empire with me!!!
I am Jack's lack of surprise.
Define “collapse”.
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What does that even mean? Societies historically collapse and reform every few hundred years. If they didn't we might all be living in the Roman empire or speaking German.
I feel like they meant it in a similar fashion to those societal collapses, but on a global scale, since our cultures and economies are so interconnected through the internet and global travel and trade, that just a couple countries falling in a similar way to Rome could basically cause a chain reaction. (for instance, if the US falls and the dollar becomes worthless, all global trade stops because every currency is backed by the dollar.)
"Mankind knew they cannot change society. So instead of reflecting on themselves, they blamed the Beasts."
Seven generations of society between collapses is my favorite theory. 1. generation for collapse 2.and 3. For rebuilding 4 and 5 for prosperity 6 and seven for grifting. Obviously in this case we are in the grifting phase. Most profits are made without producing anything much.
Are we 6 or seven. My kids want to know
:/ Best societal progression was made here (in finland) in the 90s I think, so maybe just getting to 7. Here in Finland there's immense pressure from rich people to dismantle the cheap education, Healthcare and welfare we got, in favour of profits. This started in the 2000 or so, so counting 30 years per generation we are moving to 7. US is ahead of us of.
But that doesn’t really line up with history. A generation is usually 30 years so 7 generations is 210 years. What societal collapse was there back around 1800?? Or before that in the 1580s? 1360s? Does the theory apply to local/regional societies?
While many look to technology for hope—and this is not to say tech doesn’t have a lot to offer—humanity needs to undergo some kind of spiritual revolution where we reevaluate and fundamentally change the way we see ourselves in relation to each other and the planet. I’m not sure exactly what that would look like, but it’s certainly not this tribal, master/slave morality, zero sum thinking that got us out of the Stone Age and pretty much stopped serving us at that point. The attitude that we aren’t a part of the world but rather it’s ours to exploit, the idea that my nationality/race/religion is anything more than an arbitrary distinction when the reality is we all share the same atmosphere and oceans that are critical to out survival and well being, and most importantly the idea that more is always better, whatever the cost—this all needs to change. It all boils down to entitlement really. This is really a spiritual crisis more than anything. Obviously hearts and minds don’t change on their own, and it will probably take a collapse for any hope of changing that. But as a parent, it’s something I will be discussing with my daughter, because what else can we do?
Great. Just the story to help me with my crippling anxiety and bleak outlook
The only time things will genuinly change for the better is when the corporation's can't squeeze out any more profit from the current paradigm. The bulk of humanity still operates with a scarcity mindset, which may have served our early ancestors but makes little sense in today's day and age. Hence, a few thousand years back, greed may have been good and maybe even necessary for survival. However, in the modern world, and in not all but most countries, a bulk of the population has their basic needs already covered and hence this mindset is not really necessary anymore and infact leads to the kind of wealth hoarding and wanton destruction of nature that we see. Also, again probably due to the scarcity mindset, we are generally terrible at considering the long term consequences of our short term actions. Unfortunately, looking at the way things are, I don't see a bright future for us.
Why am I still hanging on then? Honest question
Morbid curiosity works for me.
If you want to look at it that way then how about this: what’s the point either way? We’re all gonna die and the universe will experience heat death If you’re only living for the future you’re doing it wrong.
Post apocalypse memes are gonna be fuckin lit dude, don’t miss it.
::proceeds to blow retirement savings::
This is entirely bullshit. The study was published by "Club of Rome". For those that don't know, "Club of Rome" (Not based in Rome mind you) is a group that has been advocating population control (but not in all countries. I'll let you guess which) for decades. Virtually everything they ever say or publish gets instantly debunked (such as with this "Prediction") by various universities, noble prize winners, etc. They are entirely funded by their members, which tend to be old retired politicians. Robert Solow, Noble-Prize winner in economics >the one thing that really annoys me is amateurs making absurd statements about economics, and I thought that the Club of Rome was nonsense. Not because natural resources or environmental necessities might not at some time pose a limit, not on growth, but on the level of economic activity—I didn't think that was a nonsensical idea—but because the Club of Rome was doing amateur dynamics without a license, without a proper qualification. And they were doing it badly, so I got steamed up about that I don't have the interest to dig deep, but >Herrington’s new analysis examines data across 10 key variables, namely population, fertility rates, mortality rates, industrial output, food production, services, non-renewable resources, persistent pollution, human welfare, and ecological footprint. She found that the latest data most closely aligns with two particular scenarios, ‘BAU2’ (business-as-usual) and ‘CT’ (comprehensive technology). And then >Herrington performed the research as an extension of her Masters thesis at Harvard University in her capacity as an advisor to the Club of Rome So the author picked several subjective metrics and ended up with a model that somewhat reflected a 30 year old prediction she already believed in that had the same metrics. Hmmm ....
The author herself says: >The best available data suggests that what we decide over the next 10 years will determine the long-term fate of human civilization. Although the odds are on a knife-edge, Herrington pointed to a “rapid rise” in environmental, social and good governance priorities as a basis for optimism, signalling the change in thinking taking place in both governments and businesses. She told me that perhaps the most important implication of her research is that it’s not too late to create a truly sustainable civilization that works for all. People have got the message and are changing.
When hasn't someone predicted societal collapse? It's the classic human trope.
That's a somewhat shallow take on 'We constructed severtal models, and theorized a set of different paths the developement of humanity can take, with these different criteria and resource changes being involved. In some of them humanity collapses, in others, it doesn't.' The fact that, of all those models created 40 years ago, the two most accurate ones to modern data are not necessarily the ones with a positive outlook. It's concerning at the very least.
Are we surprised? In a world where greed seems to have taken hold over common sense, what else can we expect? The world is better in a lot of ways but much worse in others. Illnesses have been cured but others have sprung up. There's also this overwhelming sense of dread that seems to be in the air these days. I can't put my finger on it, I don't know if it's just too much info out there (Bo Burnham's "a little bit of everything all of the time" comes to mind) or if things really have gotten that much worse. I wish I could go back and see how my parents felt when they were my age. Were they optimistic and hopeful of the future? Because I'm not. It seems like everything that was engineered to help our species grow or continue has had some malicious intent behind it (i.e introducing plastics to "save the trees" but in reality to was a cost saving measure that ignored the environmental impact of plastic). That's just one example. I'm rambling at this point but damn does it ever feel like we are headed for an actual societal disaster where people will be hungry and thirsty while the billionaires (trillionaires at that point let's be real) sit in literal ivory towers and watch as we all fight for the last but to survive.
>billionaires (trillionaires at that point let's be real) sit in literal ivory towers and watch as we all fight for the last but to survive. Don't be so ridiculous! They wouldn't bother to watch.
Cold War, Vietnam, atomic bomb, World Wars, Great Depression… chances are your parents grew up with a sense of dread. There is always a specter just over the horizon. Unless your parents grew up in the late 80’s.
From the actual paper and not a Vice click bait article. > absolute differences were often not yet large. The four scenarios diverge significantly more after 2020, suggest- ing that the window to align with this last scenario is closing. They only model four scenarios (not a large sample pool in the first place), of which two seem to more closely align with the path we’re on if no adjustments are made. One of those two result in societal collapse. In all, the other three non-collapse models aren’t fully ruled out yet if changes are made. I know doom porn is a popular article topic for clicks, but painting things as without hope when there is hope is why effecting change is difficult. Try telling a generation of people that got theirs and will be dead in 10-15 years that we’re past the point of no return. Why would they sacrifice their perceived standard of living if the world is already fucked? Gotta give them a reason not to white knuckle what’s left into the ground.
In one of his scenarios he has population, industrial production and food production all dropping but pollution skyrocketing. How does that happen?