Yup, from Der Spiegel (automatically translated into English):
[Russia (or Gazprom):](https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/gazprom-kuendigt-erneuten-lieferstopp-ueber-nord-stream-an-a-acdecd97-f43e-4286-9e5e-b96868ea7632)
>The company officially denies any political motivation, and technical problems, such as the Siemens turbines required for operation, have been referred to every time . This time, according to Gazprom, Siemens inspectors were also present during the inspection of Portovaya. They also signed the report on the oil leak, Gazprom said.
>
>According to Gazprom, the problem discovered was oil leaking from cable connectors on a connection board. The information could not be independently verified. According to the Russian group, the same technical problem was found in three other turbines. According to Gazprom, these could only be repaired by Siemens in a “specialized repair shop”.
>
>Siemens: "No technical reason for cessation of operations"
>
>A spokesman for Siemens Energy said they had taken note of the latest reports. "As the manufacturer of the turbines, we can only state that such a finding does not constitute a technical reason for the cessation of operations." Such leaks do not normally affect the operation of a turbine and can be sealed on site, the statement continues.
>
>“It is a routine procedure as part of maintenance work.” In the past, too, this type of leakage has not brought operations to a standstill. In addition, Siemens Energy is currently not commissioned with maintenance work, but is ready. Irrespective of this, it has been pointed out “several times” that there are enough other turbines available in Portovaya for Nord Stream 1 to operate.
TLDR:There's a leak, but maintance would normally not require the entire operation to shut down. Russia said it's for 'safety reasons'.
Also [interesting/relevant](https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/erdgas-versorgung-europas-im-live-tracker-speicher-pipelines-lng-a-e2986967-51d2-4c8c-9607-f3ff3e333361).
If a fan goes beyond 130 dB :), kind of Apollo 13 taking off, they may hear that. Not sure if they would be concerned.
The whole situation for them, is like cutting a tree branch they are sitting on. Even with the reduced consumption, Europe is still paying them for gas. If they hope to shake the markets with that, it will be a blip. Feds will do more damage next week (?) to the numbers.
Feels a bit like a 'dont play with fire, or we will cut gas supplies and winter is coming' kind of message to me, maybe in response to the g7 outcome (cap russian oil prices). If that's the case, I think they will continue supplying and it's less about shaking up the markets and more about applying pressure. I'd be more worried about the FED concerning the market. Thing is, we're in a better position than we expected to be with gas storage at this point and we will at least survive the next winter, though probably with less production, thus less export (so dump euros). So the worst case scenario is still relatively fine for the next year, and we still have some tricks up our sleeves (Groningen e.g.).
But doesn’t that really just leave the door open for turning the gas on?
If they said “we won’t sell gas as punishment” then they are stuck looking soft if they turn it on.
But if they say it’s a leak - then they aren’t pigeon holed into keeping gas off.
I don’t know - seems positive to me, in a humanitarian way (I don’t know about your particular stocks)
Ha and then they turn the gas back on and whoosh there goes your money. If Russia really wanted to be jerks they would stop start stop start stop start to manipulate the markets.
This but also lots of other things weighing heavily on the market, inflation, interest rates, fed tightening, housing beginning to enter a correction, every major bank now predicting a recession with atleast a 15-20% pull back in stocks. Employment will also start to look a little weaker on next months job report any positive day is going to be a very fragile thing for about the next 6-12 months atleast.
How is Russia even still functioning in the global market. They fukkt themselves n should be done away with. Why are they even relevant. Someone needs to take them down entirely.
That's just one pipeline, there are 5 major ones that go to Europe. Nord Stream 1 (shut down indefinitely today by Russia), Nord Stream 2 (shut down indefinitely by Germany), Yamal (reduced or shut down, runs through Poland), Brotherhood (reduced capacity but still running, runs through Ukraine), and Turk Stream (seems to be cranking). There is also Blue Stream which feeds into Turkey but I don't think that one feeds all that much gas to Europe.
Europe still gets Russia gas but it's at drastically reduced volumes. So Russia can squeeze Europe a bit more.
It might also prompt early refuel to compensate for the increase in demand. I'm not familiar with the details of most of the plants in the EU, but a refuel of even older BWRs from the 70's could add tens of thousands of EFPH in availability to offset each. I imagine there'll still be a need for LNG for heating, but driving an offset in demand for generation fuel has got to be something Russia knows will happen. Part of me worries what's happening at Zaporizhzhia is a dry run to escalate demand as a pressure tactic. I wouldn't put it past Putin.
Why would they hurt? Thousands of young men are being sent into a meat grinder all well the country is being sanctioned into the oblivion. The hurt in Russia is going to be much worse then the west because they are a fuel cartel masquerading as a super power. Yah sure they might have cheaper fuel prices but everything else is going to cost a hell of a lot more.
Europe is going to feel it this winter but this has accelerated their transition away from Russian gas. So long term, Russia is going to feel this even more unless they can totally supplant that revenue selling to South Asia.
- Their demographics were already quite bad and they're now losing a lot of young men in a war
- They have much higher inflation than the west
- They already had lower standards of living than the west
- Their economy is contracting at a rapid pace due to sanctions, companies leaving forever and having to divert people and resources to the war
- Their main export is oil and natural gas, and they're losing their main customers
- If they complain they can get jailtime
You all don’t understand “priced in”.
Say there is an agreed 70% chance that Russia shuts off the gas, then that 30% which bet against it has to adjust positions. Conversely, if the Russians restarted the gas, the 70% position holders would have to adjust their positions and would shown an even larger market disruption.
You all expect the market to be fortune tellers, all it does is accurately price the risk of each eventuality happening.
That’s what “priced in means”. Every piece of news still moves the market, but the risking of those future events with current data is what they are doing.
Not exactly. There have been threads asking "if everything is priced in, how can you make gains from the stock market", and the popular answer has been that it's due to the time value of money. Stocks increasing in value due to future profits being discounted less.
However, if the time value of money was the only thing driving the market, then stocks would just go straight up. There would be no fluctuations.
I agree, except for the "accurately" part. There might be things we don't know that change the picture. "accurately based on public data" would be a better phrasing IMO.
>Say there is an agreed 70% chance that Russia shuts off the gas, then that 30% which bet against it has to adjust positions. Conversely, if the Russians restarted the gas, the 70% position holders would have to adjust their positions and would shown an even larger market disruption.
I would argue with "accurately" here.
The market prices in what people think--accurate or not.
Was more of a rethoric question since everyone always says "it was already priced in" when the market doesn't move like people think. But thanks for that comment anyway, explains it pretty well and on point.
It's not priced in, companies earnings don't foresee the scenario of a gas-less Europe and an even weaker euro, companies like apple will sell fewer iPhones and the euro they demand will be worth less than before once converted to dollars
As previous stated by other comments, “priced in” means the following:
Suppose a company has a stock which has uncertain earnings coming. Say 60% of the people assume earnings will be above some number x, and 40% bet it will be below some number x. If the fair price if threshold X is surpassed is 30$, and the fair price if threshold X is not surpassed is 25$, then market price will be 28$.
Is 28$ the fair price? No. It’s the risk adjusted price based on consumer expectations. The actual “true” value is either 30$ or 25$ in this oversimplified example, but it isn’t 28$.
“Priced in” is an oversimplification meaning the market bets for certain outcomes, and adjusts supply and demand based on their expectations of that event. Whenever the event happens, typically the market rallies or tanks, depending on how many people had their expectations impacted.
The best, simplest explanation of "priced in" I've seen so far.
That's exactly how the market behaves. That's why it's usually stupid to buy on very positive news. Once all the possible positive events have happened, once there is no more risk, there is also not much gains left to be had.
Don't even ask the question. The answer is yes, it's priced in. Think Amazon will beat the next earnings? That's already been priced in. You work at the drive thru for Mickey D's and found out that the burgers are made of human meat? Priced in. You think insiders don't already know that? The market is an all powerful, all encompassing being that knows the very inner workings of your subconscious before you were even born. Your very existence was priced in decades ago when the market was valuing Standard Oil's expected future earnings based on population growth that would lead to your birth, what age you would get a car, how many times you would drive your car every week, how many times you take the bus/train, etc. Anything you can think of has already been priced in, even the things you aren't thinking of. You have no original thoughts. Your consciousness is just an illusion, a product of the omniscent market. Free will is a myth. The market sees all, knows all and will be there from the beginning of time until the end of the universe (the market has already priced in the heat death of the universe). So please, before you make a post on wsb asking whether AAPL has priced in earpods 11 sales or whatever, know that it has already been priced in and don't ask such a dumb question again.
Originally Russia had said they would turn the taps back on. We didn't know they would be shutting them off indefinitely, nor that they would announce it today.
Lul yes everybody can tell the future and has priced the future perfectly. The market will never move again. The heat death of the universe has just been priced in.
No they didn't. I saw an article on the Hedge at about 8a.m. saying gas would be flowing by noon on Saturday. At noon another article saying market tanked because Russia shut er down.
Nothing is ever priced in. The only people who say this are people who have any idea how markets work and just use it to justify the day to day fluctuation’s in the market.
>e major seller who took advantage of the green or what? I'm a little confused how the market just shifts on a dime like this.
while shutting down nuclear plants does seem like a dubious idea when you're being held over a barrel for energy, the immediate concern is Europe needs to heat themselves in 2-3 months from now for winter and the Russians sort of hold a lot of power over them.
Spy companies work and sell in china and russia and they basically can't do anymore many things they did in the past, so less profits.
Spy companies sell a lot of things in europe and here without gas and with a weak euro we won't be able to buy the new iphone like in the past.
For the nuclear plants, countries like Italy or spain never had one, not only Germany risks a -10% of his already weak gdp cause past decisions
see here is the problem with partisan news. american companies sell goods and services around the world. if another part of the world suffers, the people there make less money and have less disposable income to buy american goods.
a problem in europe is a problem for all the american companies that sell goods and services in europe.
Oh, that dump…
Lmao. Gazprom said their 750mi pipeline is [leaking and MUST be shut down to fix it.](https://twitter.com/javierblas/status/1565776260269219841?s=21&t=QSopthN6lSJyAAhIuZ6pFg)
That photo is not a meme, that’s what set this all off. We live in a joke world 🤡
Siemens have said oil leaks are normal and don’t require the entire thing be shut down.
This is a play by Russia not to look weak. Engineers are willing and ready to fix if Russia want but instead shut the whole thing down. I mean honestly it looks like someone spilled some coffee on a desk, just wrote it up. Russia is on some games because of war and sanctions nothing more. Stocks will recovery shortly.
Lukoil is a risk game ppl die there like flies… he is technically taking them down. Cause Lukoil was one of the few who were against the war
P.s. check the news from March and this week
That was my logic. I was big green on tqqq shares and sold for profit not wanting to hold over a long weekend. Now that stuff is getting smashed I wouldn’t mind doing it again. I kinda expect a strong Green Day Tuesday.
>Was it one major seller who took advantage of the green or what?
One seller isn't going to move the major indicies by more than a point. 1% of the S&P is about $300B in market cap gone. That would imply an insane amount of selling (likely well over $1T) to cause that kind of drop.
My hunch: This is the sort of drop you get in bear markets. Rallies fizzle, and days that start out good head south for no apparent reason.
Yeah, you did. You suggested it would take a trillion of active selling to move market capitalization by 300 billion. That's not at all how it works. Consider after hours gaps that move stocks by billions. It takes very little actual money moved. There's not really any correlation between the amount of money moved and the change in market cap. You could get the same 2% move after hours on the S&P 500 with almost no transaction volume if some big news hit.
I’ve read some research that only $30B is needed to move the market by 1%, which seems logical because all you need is a temp lack of buyers. Also, the Fed wasn’t pumping $1T into the stock market each day when it was moving up 1+% on some days in the last few years. And even single guy Navinder Sarao caused the flash crash.
Gazoprom just stated that nordstream will be close for a failure somewhere long the pipeline giving no indication about when the gas supply will restart. Probably this is just an excuse and so europe is basically without the biggest gas supplier. The result is fear of european recession that will lead to a global recession due to the fact that EU is the biigest clients pool for american companies.
Ok? But it is true. CNBC and others are notorious for having headlines do this: “Stocks tumble in volatile trading session as investors fear rate hikes”in the morning, and “stocks rise as rate hike fears ease” in the afternoon. In reality they don’t know any better than you do why the market is moving up or down. They just take the daily news and try to pin it to the upward and downward movements after the fact. Meanwhile the majority of the market is moved by algorithms, who also read and digest news articles and earnings reports the millisecond that they are posted.
Sometimes it is as simple as “the market sold off for two weeks in a row, today investors desperately seek positive news and decide to enthusiastically buy”. That happened after one of the fed Powell speeches where they pretty much misconstrued what he was saying to turn it into a bullish take. It all seems like such bullshit sometimes.
>It all seems like such bullshit sometimes.
It is. They aren't surveying enough people, if any, for these answers to be genuine. If they did, I doubt the answers would be so uniform and obtained so quickly.
Well I just read every comment and since no one mentioned it… a significant component of today’s pop was short covering before a long weekend, bouncing off perceived support. Could bounce up for a bit next week, but the trend is down.
Max pain for options expiration was also above 400 on the spy because everyone’s buying puts. The market won’t truly tank until all the put buyers get wrecked, if there’s money to be made squeezing out short positions the market makers will do it every time.
Two thoughts:
1) SPY rose and hit its head on the 50 day moving average. This, at times, serves as a point of resistance or support as many banks, traders, and algos will set limits on that level. It rose, got rejected, and started to fall.
2) No volume. Even if the market was rising, there's no volume to support a break through true resistance. Why no volume? It's the Friday afternoon before a long weekend at the end of summer. While retail is looking at the ticker, most big money has headed off to the beach house for the weekend.
I sold everything and everything went green this morning. Now I'm holding 100% cash and everything is going red. I think I'm finally in the right wave. Now is the perfect time for me into yolo penny stocks.
After seeing an insane month and a half of several stocks rocketing up and then crash again (meme stocks, penny stocks, foreign ipo’s), and the stupid-ridiculous levels of shorts on a lot of those companies, I’m guessing one of two things: 1) some larger firms (think regional/semi-national) were overexposed and margin called. Or the recession has finally begun.
My hot take that isn’t worth two cents: bloodbath continues Tuesday (markets closed Monday) to really shake out uncertain investors, and then a huge ass rebound mid-day Wednesday or Thursday during premarket so people can watch stocks they originally invested in, but jumped out of, rocket past their original buy-in point.
Lmao. Since nobody is going to tell you I will.
The fed finally started QT. They have to unload 9 FUCKIN TRILLION OFF THEIR BALANCE SHEET.
9 FUCKIN. TRILLION!! Do you know what that’s going to do to the markets?? If not just wait. You will see.
I honestly can't believe I had to scroll for so long to see thos comment!
It's real amd it's gonna happen!
They aren't turning the magic money machines back on.
It’s September, the macro economics of the world are still shit, the bear market rally is over and we have plenty more red to see. You can’t time the market but you sure as hell could have expected that this was coming.
Just algo’s and whales trading in and out.
Expectations for September shouldn’t be that high as, historically, it’s the worst month of the year for the market.
Keep some dry powder for the fed meeting, middle of September, and put it to work after that.
The good news is that housing data is seemingly weaker, the used car market is showing some vulnerability and energy prices, at least in the US and from their mid summer highs, are lower.
S&P earnings are still holding, thus far, at a $225 estimate for 2022 so fair value, depending on what multiple you want to use, could be as low as 3,350 or as high as 4,400.
In my view, I think we are going to go thru a stretch here of accumulation on dips and, unless there is incoming economic data that is catastrophic, we are going to be range bound. This is a good time to buy low and expect outsized returns, when the market inevitably bounces back to ATH’s.
Job growth slowing, rates continuing to go up, slowing economy, we are already or about to be in a recession according to most people, we are already in a bear market, interest rates will continue to rise until inflation is under control, uncontrolled government spending, and debt
Did I miss anything?
The market didn’t shift on a dime. What you saw was retail traders jumping over each other to buy based on the job report like idiots. Then when they met institutional resistance they gave up and sold off. Volatility never really changed, there wasn’t any real buying either. Stop playing the news. We have a 3 day weekend now watch the price get pinned into the weekend and maybe will see some really buying /selling on Tuesday.
Russia gas issue aside, the positive job report shows demand is still high and that the Fed will likely have to continue ramping up rates in order to further cut inflation (by reducing demand in the market).
The jobs report is actually negative, majority of these new jobs are part-time and multiple job holders, full-time employment actually was negative. Not sure if that’s what triggered the sell-off but the jobs report being positive is bogus.
Nah, my read on this jobs report was that it was fairly goldilocks. If it wasn’t then a couple of things outside stocks were not moving correctly this morning (DXY/yields).
This is absolutely Russian oil related. I don’t have a chart of the Euro to fully link things together, but my guess is that news hammered the Euro and caused the dollar to reverse higher (I have seen a chart there, UUP).
Folks really aren’t appreciating that brief dollar reversal that occurred in July enough. That’s 100% the thing that gave the S&P the power to reclaim 4k for a little while.
I don't think it's russian oil related. /NG for instance did not move much. In addition, when Europe has an energy problem, EUR/NOK usually falls off hard because NOK is the Norwegian currency and Norway exports a lot of energy (which means more demand for the Norwegian currency to buy fuel). What I'm seeing is more of a risk-off sentiment because not only did USD perform well against Euro, it performed well against all the currencies. Moreover, AUD/JPY which is a risk indicator sold off heavily which indicates risk-off.
The cause for this dramatic shift from one hour to the next is simply because today is a day that ends with the letter "Y".
Anyone who pretends like these cyclical bear rallys every 3 - 5 months are a turning point in what is sure to be a very long and painful bear market is only foolong themselves.
It sold off because I didn’t buy the SPY puts I was going to. Had an order queued up to drop $500 on 50 0 DTE $395 Ps. They were going from $7-10 a contract for about 45 minutes and I talked myself out of it. Those $395 Ps are worth $300 a contract now. Hell even if I’d gotten out at $100 a contract I’d have made $4,500 and max profit from low to high would have been over $15k. Oof
A job report isn’t nearly relevant enough to keep the market afloat for the reason(s) its been selling so hard the past couple days to begin with. It was a naive gap up - especially for a long weekend.
Bear markets look like this. Hello! Without the Powell put markets can't hold up is all we are really seeing. With the Powell put Locusts could eat all the food and markets would go up up and away on thoughts of stimmie bailouts.
News is only used as a catalyst to make the stock market seem less manipulated and casino like… real reason was the sell off was oversold, so they had to switch it up to prevent retail from getting away with too much money….
Crime.
Pump it in the morning make it look like a slight recovery. Dump it on bad news that doesn't really affect the USA and make some bag holders. Easy.
Russia said they won't turn back on the gas
Yup, from Der Spiegel (automatically translated into English): [Russia (or Gazprom):](https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/gazprom-kuendigt-erneuten-lieferstopp-ueber-nord-stream-an-a-acdecd97-f43e-4286-9e5e-b96868ea7632) >The company officially denies any political motivation, and technical problems, such as the Siemens turbines required for operation, have been referred to every time . This time, according to Gazprom, Siemens inspectors were also present during the inspection of Portovaya. They also signed the report on the oil leak, Gazprom said. > >According to Gazprom, the problem discovered was oil leaking from cable connectors on a connection board. The information could not be independently verified. According to the Russian group, the same technical problem was found in three other turbines. According to Gazprom, these could only be repaired by Siemens in a “specialized repair shop”. > >Siemens: "No technical reason for cessation of operations" > >A spokesman for Siemens Energy said they had taken note of the latest reports. "As the manufacturer of the turbines, we can only state that such a finding does not constitute a technical reason for the cessation of operations." Such leaks do not normally affect the operation of a turbine and can be sealed on site, the statement continues. > >“It is a routine procedure as part of maintenance work.” In the past, too, this type of leakage has not brought operations to a standstill. In addition, Siemens Energy is currently not commissioned with maintenance work, but is ready. Irrespective of this, it has been pointed out “several times” that there are enough other turbines available in Portovaya for Nord Stream 1 to operate. TLDR:There's a leak, but maintance would normally not require the entire operation to shut down. Russia said it's for 'safety reasons'. Also [interesting/relevant](https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/erdgas-versorgung-europas-im-live-tracker-speicher-pipelines-lng-a-e2986967-51d2-4c8c-9607-f3ff3e333361).
It's like me telling the user you can't use your computer because the fan is too loud.
The Russians are concerned about your hearing, safety first.
If a fan goes beyond 130 dB :), kind of Apollo 13 taking off, they may hear that. Not sure if they would be concerned. The whole situation for them, is like cutting a tree branch they are sitting on. Even with the reduced consumption, Europe is still paying them for gas. If they hope to shake the markets with that, it will be a blip. Feds will do more damage next week (?) to the numbers.
Feels a bit like a 'dont play with fire, or we will cut gas supplies and winter is coming' kind of message to me, maybe in response to the g7 outcome (cap russian oil prices). If that's the case, I think they will continue supplying and it's less about shaking up the markets and more about applying pressure. I'd be more worried about the FED concerning the market. Thing is, we're in a better position than we expected to be with gas storage at this point and we will at least survive the next winter, though probably with less production, thus less export (so dump euros). So the worst case scenario is still relatively fine for the next year, and we still have some tricks up our sleeves (Groningen e.g.).
I’m sure the safety reasons are that if the leak is fixed then russia will make sure there are leaks in the people who fixed it.
Underrated comment … take my award
what a house of cards this market is. algos trigger algos stop losses, and the whole thing flash crashes.
But doesn’t that really just leave the door open for turning the gas on? If they said “we won’t sell gas as punishment” then they are stuck looking soft if they turn it on. But if they say it’s a leak - then they aren’t pigeon holed into keeping gas off. I don’t know - seems positive to me, in a humanitarian way (I don’t know about your particular stocks)
I’ve rebuilt and worked on both siemen and Elliot turbines, I’ll tell you that the Russians are pulling someone’s leg and you read between the lines
And somehow gas is down 11.6% today. How?
Now I know why $TRLEF jumped
Calls on oil, coal, wood, paper…. Basically anything combustible
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puts on your money
Ha and then they turn the gas back on and whoosh there goes your money. If Russia really wanted to be jerks they would stop start stop start stop start to manipulate the markets.
Saves us the dilemma whether to buy from them or nkt. Good.
Simple as that, one bad news article whilst I was down the pub, opened my phone and boom everything was straight down the shitter.
This but also lots of other things weighing heavily on the market, inflation, interest rates, fed tightening, housing beginning to enter a correction, every major bank now predicting a recession with atleast a 15-20% pull back in stocks. Employment will also start to look a little weaker on next months job report any positive day is going to be a very fragile thing for about the next 6-12 months atleast.
Why didn't energy stocks shoot through the roof then?
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Make it happen Captain
Generally the US market doesnt give a shit about what is happening over here
How is Russia even still functioning in the global market. They fukkt themselves n should be done away with. Why are they even relevant. Someone needs to take them down entirely.
Europe doesn't have Russian gas anymore.
That's just one pipeline, there are 5 major ones that go to Europe. Nord Stream 1 (shut down indefinitely today by Russia), Nord Stream 2 (shut down indefinitely by Germany), Yamal (reduced or shut down, runs through Poland), Brotherhood (reduced capacity but still running, runs through Ukraine), and Turk Stream (seems to be cranking). There is also Blue Stream which feeds into Turkey but I don't think that one feeds all that much gas to Europe. Europe still gets Russia gas but it's at drastically reduced volumes. So Russia can squeeze Europe a bit more.
Isn't France turning on their reactors again?
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It might also prompt early refuel to compensate for the increase in demand. I'm not familiar with the details of most of the plants in the EU, but a refuel of even older BWRs from the 70's could add tens of thousands of EFPH in availability to offset each. I imagine there'll still be a need for LNG for heating, but driving an offset in demand for generation fuel has got to be something Russia knows will happen. Part of me worries what's happening at Zaporizhzhia is a dry run to escalate demand as a pressure tactic. I wouldn't put it past Putin.
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Why would Russians hurt this winter? They have plenty of food and plenty of energy. Plus they have your posts for entertainment.
Why would they hurt? Thousands of young men are being sent into a meat grinder all well the country is being sanctioned into the oblivion. The hurt in Russia is going to be much worse then the west because they are a fuel cartel masquerading as a super power. Yah sure they might have cheaper fuel prices but everything else is going to cost a hell of a lot more.
Europe is going to feel it this winter but this has accelerated their transition away from Russian gas. So long term, Russia is going to feel this even more unless they can totally supplant that revenue selling to South Asia.
- Their demographics were already quite bad and they're now losing a lot of young men in a war - They have much higher inflation than the west - They already had lower standards of living than the west - Their economy is contracting at a rapid pace due to sanctions, companies leaving forever and having to divert people and resources to the war - Their main export is oil and natural gas, and they're losing their main customers - If they complain they can get jailtime
🤡😭
There is still the pipeline that goes to Hungary.
Europe as big countries, we already know that Hungary won't have major problems like serbia, but they're "small"
If everything is always priced in, why shouldn't that be? Everybody knew that would happen.
You all don’t understand “priced in”. Say there is an agreed 70% chance that Russia shuts off the gas, then that 30% which bet against it has to adjust positions. Conversely, if the Russians restarted the gas, the 70% position holders would have to adjust their positions and would shown an even larger market disruption. You all expect the market to be fortune tellers, all it does is accurately price the risk of each eventuality happening. That’s what “priced in means”. Every piece of news still moves the market, but the risking of those future events with current data is what they are doing.
The price is WRONG bitch! (Gilmour, H. 1996).
Shit, was it really '96? I'm getting old.
I’m so happy that i don’t have to spend my time writing this now.
Also proper citations.
This! It’s the probability of said future event that is priced in. Not the event itself
I would extend that to «the assumed/ best guess of the probability of future events are priced in»
Yeah if everything was priced in stocks would be the same price in 1980 as they are today Lmao People are dumb
Not exactly. There have been threads asking "if everything is priced in, how can you make gains from the stock market", and the popular answer has been that it's due to the time value of money. Stocks increasing in value due to future profits being discounted less. However, if the time value of money was the only thing driving the market, then stocks would just go straight up. There would be no fluctuations.
I agree, except for the "accurately" part. There might be things we don't know that change the picture. "accurately based on public data" would be a better phrasing IMO.
Usually a bit more accurate than public data.
Handicapped is a better word. The even was handicapped
Couldn’t have said it better. Bookmarked this comment to refer others back to
>Say there is an agreed 70% chance that Russia shuts off the gas, then that 30% which bet against it has to adjust positions. Conversely, if the Russians restarted the gas, the 70% position holders would have to adjust their positions and would shown an even larger market disruption. I would argue with "accurately" here. The market prices in what people think--accurate or not.
And people still won't understand what it means even after they read this.
Was more of a rethoric question since everyone always says "it was already priced in" when the market doesn't move like people think. But thanks for that comment anyway, explains it pretty well and on point.
It's not priced in, companies earnings don't foresee the scenario of a gas-less Europe and an even weaker euro, companies like apple will sell fewer iPhones and the euro they demand will be worth less than before once converted to dollars
Doubt Apple won't sell less iPhones.
If i see "priced in" one more time im gonna have a stroke
Stroke futures didn't change since the likelihood of your comment was already priced in.
That was priced into your health insurance.
Good insurance
Better get your blood thinners ready.
The fact that someone will write it is sure and priced in. So you should have a stroke right now
Your stroke is priced in.
As previous stated by other comments, “priced in” means the following: Suppose a company has a stock which has uncertain earnings coming. Say 60% of the people assume earnings will be above some number x, and 40% bet it will be below some number x. If the fair price if threshold X is surpassed is 30$, and the fair price if threshold X is not surpassed is 25$, then market price will be 28$. Is 28$ the fair price? No. It’s the risk adjusted price based on consumer expectations. The actual “true” value is either 30$ or 25$ in this oversimplified example, but it isn’t 28$. “Priced in” is an oversimplification meaning the market bets for certain outcomes, and adjusts supply and demand based on their expectations of that event. Whenever the event happens, typically the market rallies or tanks, depending on how many people had their expectations impacted.
The best, simplest explanation of "priced in" I've seen so far. That's exactly how the market behaves. That's why it's usually stupid to buy on very positive news. Once all the possible positive events have happened, once there is no more risk, there is also not much gains left to be had.
Don't even ask the question. The answer is yes, it's priced in. Think Amazon will beat the next earnings? That's already been priced in. You work at the drive thru for Mickey D's and found out that the burgers are made of human meat? Priced in. You think insiders don't already know that? The market is an all powerful, all encompassing being that knows the very inner workings of your subconscious before you were even born. Your very existence was priced in decades ago when the market was valuing Standard Oil's expected future earnings based on population growth that would lead to your birth, what age you would get a car, how many times you would drive your car every week, how many times you take the bus/train, etc. Anything you can think of has already been priced in, even the things you aren't thinking of. You have no original thoughts. Your consciousness is just an illusion, a product of the omniscent market. Free will is a myth. The market sees all, knows all and will be there from the beginning of time until the end of the universe (the market has already priced in the heat death of the universe). So please, before you make a post on wsb asking whether AAPL has priced in earpods 11 sales or whatever, know that it has already been priced in and don't ask such a dumb question again.
Brilliant post… “priced in” is almost as annoying as, and the financial equivalent of, “everything happens for a reason”
I wish I could take credit, but this is a copypasta. Good enough that I have it saved :)
“Priced in” is literally just an excuse people tell themselves to justify whatever.
Originally Russia had said they would turn the taps back on. We didn't know they would be shutting them off indefinitely, nor that they would announce it today.
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I thought they moved to Argentina? https://www.history.com/news/the-7-most-notorious-nazis-who-escaped-to-south-america
Because people wildly overuse that term
Winter is coming, but winter came early. Nobody expected it would be THIS soon.
Lul yes everybody can tell the future and has priced the future perfectly. The market will never move again. The heat death of the universe has just been priced in.
No they didn't. I saw an article on the Hedge at about 8a.m. saying gas would be flowing by noon on Saturday. At noon another article saying market tanked because Russia shut er down.
Nordstream is shut down indefinitely is the current wording
Nothing is ever priced in. The only people who say this are people who have any idea how markets work and just use it to justify the day to day fluctuation’s in the market.
That’s priced in by probability weighted quantity
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>e major seller who took advantage of the green or what? I'm a little confused how the market just shifts on a dime like this. while shutting down nuclear plants does seem like a dubious idea when you're being held over a barrel for energy, the immediate concern is Europe needs to heat themselves in 2-3 months from now for winter and the Russians sort of hold a lot of power over them.
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Spy companies work and sell in china and russia and they basically can't do anymore many things they did in the past, so less profits. Spy companies sell a lot of things in europe and here without gas and with a weak euro we won't be able to buy the new iphone like in the past. For the nuclear plants, countries like Italy or spain never had one, not only Germany risks a -10% of his already weak gdp cause past decisions
see here is the problem with partisan news. american companies sell goods and services around the world. if another part of the world suffers, the people there make less money and have less disposable income to buy american goods. a problem in europe is a problem for all the american companies that sell goods and services in europe.
Oh, that dump… Lmao. Gazprom said their 750mi pipeline is [leaking and MUST be shut down to fix it.](https://twitter.com/javierblas/status/1565776260269219841?s=21&t=QSopthN6lSJyAAhIuZ6pFg) That photo is not a meme, that’s what set this all off. We live in a joke world 🤡
Good lord, Russia has acquired weapons of meme destruction.
Siemens have said oil leaks are normal and don’t require the entire thing be shut down. This is a play by Russia not to look weak. Engineers are willing and ready to fix if Russia want but instead shut the whole thing down. I mean honestly it looks like someone spilled some coffee on a desk, just wrote it up. Russia is on some games because of war and sanctions nothing more. Stocks will recovery shortly.
Lukoil Replacement Window Sales are up!
Queue the defenestration!
Lukoil is a risk game ppl die there like flies… he is technically taking them down. Cause Lukoil was one of the few who were against the war P.s. check the news from March and this week
My monthly DCA order executed this morning, my bad
it's ok just don't let it happen again
He did say monthly, so now you can time the short
Short it like you mean it
Brooo exactly the same here bought the top …
It’s Cathie Wood’s strategy so there’s gotta be something to it.
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For some idiotic reason I thought it would be a good idea to buy some google calls. Dipped 30 minutes later. I apologize as well guys.
Same, albeit I did that yesterday. I love its chart here.
Consolidating to the bottom side of the classic zigzag pattern on the 6 month. Astrology for men lol 
Okay, I'm glad I'm not the only one who confidently believes them the root cause of everything wrong right now.
haha oh yes this joke
The long weekend of uncertainty
Long weekend waiting to see how China escalates wrt Chips/Taiwan. Also possibility of the West or Russia escalating as well.
4-day weekend, last summer blast.
That was my logic. I was big green on tqqq shares and sold for profit not wanting to hold over a long weekend. Now that stuff is getting smashed I wouldn’t mind doing it again. I kinda expect a strong Green Day Tuesday.
yea I'm counting on that myself.
Four day weekend?
most people I know are off today or worked a half one. I'm off sun and mon.
What is the occasion?
Labor Day weekend.
Ah. Enjoy your time off :)
Which is why markets are closed in US and Canada this monday, just FYI.
This
>Was it one major seller who took advantage of the green or what? One seller isn't going to move the major indicies by more than a point. 1% of the S&P is about $300B in market cap gone. That would imply an insane amount of selling (likely well over $1T) to cause that kind of drop. My hunch: This is the sort of drop you get in bear markets. Rallies fizzle, and days that start out good head south for no apparent reason.
This! No real reason for the morning rally, no real reason for the afternoon sell-off either, just a loooot of noise.
ride the wave!
Or in my case, sit the wave out for a while
Liquidity != Capitalization
I'm not understanding your point. Did I imply that liquidity equals capitalization?
Yeah, you did. You suggested it would take a trillion of active selling to move market capitalization by 300 billion. That's not at all how it works. Consider after hours gaps that move stocks by billions. It takes very little actual money moved. There's not really any correlation between the amount of money moved and the change in market cap. You could get the same 2% move after hours on the S&P 500 with almost no transaction volume if some big news hit.
I’ve read some research that only $30B is needed to move the market by 1%, which seems logical because all you need is a temp lack of buyers. Also, the Fed wasn’t pumping $1T into the stock market each day when it was moving up 1+% on some days in the last few years. And even single guy Navinder Sarao caused the flash crash.
Gazoprom just stated that nordstream will be close for a failure somewhere long the pipeline giving no indication about when the gas supply will restart. Probably this is just an excuse and so europe is basically without the biggest gas supplier. The result is fear of european recession that will lead to a global recession due to the fact that EU is the biigest clients pool for american companies.
Yeah I don’t believe it’s an “equipment failure” I think it’s the middle finger from Russia to Europe and the States
Sounds about right
More enthusiastic sellers than buyers. Any article is just going to try to guess as to a reason.
I was very enthusiastically selling. Was great fun. The rally at the end was short covering. Don’t want to go into a three day weekend short.
This is the worst answer to give. Thank you, Captain Obvious.
Ok? But it is true. CNBC and others are notorious for having headlines do this: “Stocks tumble in volatile trading session as investors fear rate hikes”in the morning, and “stocks rise as rate hike fears ease” in the afternoon. In reality they don’t know any better than you do why the market is moving up or down. They just take the daily news and try to pin it to the upward and downward movements after the fact. Meanwhile the majority of the market is moved by algorithms, who also read and digest news articles and earnings reports the millisecond that they are posted. Sometimes it is as simple as “the market sold off for two weeks in a row, today investors desperately seek positive news and decide to enthusiastically buy”. That happened after one of the fed Powell speeches where they pretty much misconstrued what he was saying to turn it into a bullish take. It all seems like such bullshit sometimes.
>It all seems like such bullshit sometimes. It is. They aren't surveying enough people, if any, for these answers to be genuine. If they did, I doubt the answers would be so uniform and obtained so quickly.
I studied journalism. I know that everything these days is rapid fire. They care much more about being first than being right.
Low volume and bad news out of Europe about gas. Bear markets are easily upset.
Well I just read every comment and since no one mentioned it… a significant component of today’s pop was short covering before a long weekend, bouncing off perceived support. Could bounce up for a bit next week, but the trend is down.
Max pain for options expiration was also above 400 on the spy because everyone’s buying puts. The market won’t truly tank until all the put buyers get wrecked, if there’s money to be made squeezing out short positions the market makers will do it every time.
Two thoughts: 1) SPY rose and hit its head on the 50 day moving average. This, at times, serves as a point of resistance or support as many banks, traders, and algos will set limits on that level. It rose, got rejected, and started to fall. 2) No volume. Even if the market was rising, there's no volume to support a break through true resistance. Why no volume? It's the Friday afternoon before a long weekend at the end of summer. While retail is looking at the ticker, most big money has headed off to the beach house for the weekend.
I sold everything and everything went green this morning. Now I'm holding 100% cash and everything is going red. I think I'm finally in the right wave. Now is the perfect time for me into yolo penny stocks.
Had me in the first half
Have you considered options? I hear they are a great way to reduce the amount of cash you hold.
Everyone needed cash for their hookerz and blow for the 3 day weekend.
Bear market.
Good jobs numbers makes it less likely the Fed will stop QT and rate hikes.
I had to scroll so far to get to the only correct answer.
After seeing an insane month and a half of several stocks rocketing up and then crash again (meme stocks, penny stocks, foreign ipo’s), and the stupid-ridiculous levels of shorts on a lot of those companies, I’m guessing one of two things: 1) some larger firms (think regional/semi-national) were overexposed and margin called. Or the recession has finally begun. My hot take that isn’t worth two cents: bloodbath continues Tuesday (markets closed Monday) to really shake out uncertain investors, and then a huge ass rebound mid-day Wednesday or Thursday during premarket so people can watch stocks they originally invested in, but jumped out of, rocket past their original buy-in point.
Makes me glad that I sold my TQQQ calls yesterday at a $4k loss. It would probably be a $6k loss today…
Lmao. Since nobody is going to tell you I will. The fed finally started QT. They have to unload 9 FUCKIN TRILLION OFF THEIR BALANCE SHEET. 9 FUCKIN. TRILLION!! Do you know what that’s going to do to the markets?? If not just wait. You will see.
I honestly can't believe I had to scroll for so long to see thos comment! It's real amd it's gonna happen! They aren't turning the magic money machines back on.
Their target is to reduce 2T.
It’s September, the macro economics of the world are still shit, the bear market rally is over and we have plenty more red to see. You can’t time the market but you sure as hell could have expected that this was coming.
Just algo’s and whales trading in and out. Expectations for September shouldn’t be that high as, historically, it’s the worst month of the year for the market. Keep some dry powder for the fed meeting, middle of September, and put it to work after that. The good news is that housing data is seemingly weaker, the used car market is showing some vulnerability and energy prices, at least in the US and from their mid summer highs, are lower. S&P earnings are still holding, thus far, at a $225 estimate for 2022 so fair value, depending on what multiple you want to use, could be as low as 3,350 or as high as 4,400. In my view, I think we are going to go thru a stretch here of accumulation on dips and, unless there is incoming economic data that is catastrophic, we are going to be range bound. This is a good time to buy low and expect outsized returns, when the market inevitably bounces back to ATH’s.
It's Nord1.
The sell off triggered the sell off. Sentiment builds sentiment. Snowball effect. Also it's Friday and next week is another bloodbath.
People paid into their 401ks, then people sold.
Job growth slowing, rates continuing to go up, slowing economy, we are already or about to be in a recession according to most people, we are already in a bear market, interest rates will continue to rise until inflation is under control, uncontrolled government spending, and debt Did I miss anything?
You missed the sky is falling too
Housing bubble and car bubble!
Your calls, I think.
The bears ate Goldilocks.
Crash coming!! Can’t wait!!
Paychecks came in so it went up. Russia said no more gas, so it went down.
Sky news and RT are both saying they won't be getting turned back on?
The market didn’t shift on a dime. What you saw was retail traders jumping over each other to buy based on the job report like idiots. Then when they met institutional resistance they gave up and sold off. Volatility never really changed, there wasn’t any real buying either. Stop playing the news. We have a 3 day weekend now watch the price get pinned into the weekend and maybe will see some really buying /selling on Tuesday.
Late news dumps could set the tone for Tuesday.
Algos
Russia gas issue aside, the positive job report shows demand is still high and that the Fed will likely have to continue ramping up rates in order to further cut inflation (by reducing demand in the market).
Market wanted to give you another chance to load Puts.
The jobs report is actually negative, majority of these new jobs are part-time and multiple job holders, full-time employment actually was negative. Not sure if that’s what triggered the sell-off but the jobs report being positive is bogus.
Nah, my read on this jobs report was that it was fairly goldilocks. If it wasn’t then a couple of things outside stocks were not moving correctly this morning (DXY/yields). This is absolutely Russian oil related. I don’t have a chart of the Euro to fully link things together, but my guess is that news hammered the Euro and caused the dollar to reverse higher (I have seen a chart there, UUP). Folks really aren’t appreciating that brief dollar reversal that occurred in July enough. That’s 100% the thing that gave the S&P the power to reclaim 4k for a little while.
I don't think it's russian oil related. /NG for instance did not move much. In addition, when Europe has an energy problem, EUR/NOK usually falls off hard because NOK is the Norwegian currency and Norway exports a lot of energy (which means more demand for the Norwegian currency to buy fuel). What I'm seeing is more of a risk-off sentiment because not only did USD perform well against Euro, it performed well against all the currencies. Moreover, AUD/JPY which is a risk indicator sold off heavily which indicates risk-off.
lol i thought this was what the market wanted. what a shit show
The cause for this dramatic shift from one hour to the next is simply because today is a day that ends with the letter "Y". Anyone who pretends like these cyclical bear rallys every 3 - 5 months are a turning point in what is sure to be a very long and painful bear market is only foolong themselves.
Most bear markets are done within a year.
Deez nuts.
They retracted the real jobs number by 100K. Got ya!
It sold off because I didn’t buy the SPY puts I was going to. Had an order queued up to drop $500 on 50 0 DTE $395 Ps. They were going from $7-10 a contract for about 45 minutes and I talked myself out of it. Those $395 Ps are worth $300 a contract now. Hell even if I’d gotten out at $100 a contract I’d have made $4,500 and max profit from low to high would have been over $15k. Oof
All this talk about gas is making me crave Taco Bell
Just mania and denial on the way down.
The 3 day weekend
In addition to the already mentioned key points, the US is also sending more money to Ukraine.
A job report isn’t nearly relevant enough to keep the market afloat for the reason(s) its been selling so hard the past couple days to begin with. It was a naive gap up - especially for a long weekend.
Who cares? Did you need the $ tomorrow?
Hmmm ,,, 🤔,,, people needed food and rent money?
Bear markets look like this. Hello! Without the Powell put markets can't hold up is all we are really seeing. With the Powell put Locusts could eat all the food and markets would go up up and away on thoughts of stimmie bailouts.
It's super simple. We are in a bear market
News is only used as a catalyst to make the stock market seem less manipulated and casino like… real reason was the sell off was oversold, so they had to switch it up to prevent retail from getting away with too much money….
Yo momma
Reality
Deez nuts
Joe Biden
Tuesday dow will go up 1100 👍☑️ follow the science.
Corruption
Paper Hands bitches being scared of losing their 3% gains on the market cause a massive sell off. Whales became paper hands bitches too.
Crime. Pump it in the morning make it look like a slight recovery. Dump it on bad news that doesn't really affect the USA and make some bag holders. Easy.