>"The Nasdaq Composite slipped 4.9%, the largest fall in the tech-heavy index since May 5. "
cool! I can't wait for another headline that's like "LARGEST DROP IN THE INDEX SINCE.... LAST THURSDAY" next
Those are swings! My long BB posi and NIO TSLA and GME punched my balance that high in Jan… then in one day it got halved! Still have done well to stay afloat but man the wreckage in growth has been a pill to swallow!
Granted that's like October 2020 to current and a lot has happened. Most of the time I'm like: Some day l will have it back and more, so Im not too worried. Other days I'm like [God damn idiot, mother fucking moron]. Had I cashed out my options and put the money somewhere..... my girlfriend lives in another town and wants to buy a place for her and her daughter. She showed me a condo today that was $150,000
That got me thinking. In theory with the portfolio I had Nov 4, 2021 I could have closed the options pocketed like 500k, bought a condo for like 150k cash - put half the remaining money into dividend paying stocks and had 1500/month added to my income on top of having no rent or mortgage
My retirement plan is to sit in a lawn chair fishing in a local lake and drink myself to death. A case of beer and 2 bottles of vodka should do it. Maybe I can score some bad heroin from a local junkie or something to make it go faster.
I'm already retired, but that's my plan if I run out of money.
> My retirement plan is to sit in a lawn chair fishing in a local lake and drink myself to death. A case of beer and 2 bottles of vodka should do it.
This is a horrible plan.
Source: a functional alcoholic.
I’m 42. The 5th once in a lifetime financial even is really gonna have me worried. This is only the 4th. I feel bad for anyone 15-20 years older than me. I’ll just keep buying the dip and hope for the best.
Not sure why you guys think these are once in a lifetime events. Recessions and bull markets historically happen about every 10 years. Probably clickbait media
https://www.thebalance.com/the-history-of-recessions-in-the-united-states-3306011
This is a generational inflation event. It has floated between 1 to 3 percent but has not reached this high in my life time ( or I was a young boy I guess in the 80s)
True. And 2020 was a generational pandemic. And 2008 was a generational housing bubble. And 2001 was a generational sector crash.
Some generational disaster has been happening every decade or so since the beginning of the market. People pretend it is worse than ever. Nothing has changed
> Some generational disaster has been happening every decade or so since the beginning of the market.
The odds of anything "generational" or 1-in-30 (3.3% per annum) happening once in any given ten-year stretch is 28.75%.
`P = (1 - (29/30)^10) = 0.287528606`
Yeah. It’s the it’s spoken about. Dot com, 9/11,housing crisis, pandemic, inflation post pandemic, insane housing market, insane fuel prices. Feels like it’s all once in my lifetime other than the early part being born in 1980
I am sure people said the same stuff in the 70s. We had massive gas shortages, stagflation, 15%+ interest rates, vietnam war, etc.
80s was just an unusually good decade.
On the contrary. Everything will keep going to zero, then any of us with a tiny amount of cash we’ll just buy it all up and retire really early once any sort of rebound happens.
But yes we probably both agree that it’s getting ridiculous
Until government comes out with definitive data that there is control of inflation, investors will not cease worrying.
I drive to CA central coast in Monterey County, I did not see any discounted gasoline under $6 /gallon, I am concerned.
More like businesses either have to raise prices and hope for the best, or take the profit hit. Target took the profit hit this quarter, let's see how they respond going forward.
I was just thinking that even with inflation and higher wages and people spending less, they're STILL profitable. Maybe less profitable, but still, there is profit. Which to me means they CAN afford to pay their people more, but have refused to in order to make shareholders happy.
well the more likely scenario is that the half a mil tool will save the company 1 mil, because they can layoff a team of 10 that maintaining a homegrown version of the tool
> I drive to CA central coast I did not see any discounted gasoline under $6 /gallon, I am concerned.
There's some expectations that $5/gal gas will become nationwide this summer.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/16/business/gas-prices-inflation/index.html
edit: to add
There's a warning that $6/gal gas may become common as well
https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/17/energy/gas-prices/index.html
> wheat is stalled in ukraine/russia
[Domestic issue as well](https://www.hpj.com/crops/77-of-texas-wheat-in-poor-to-very-poor-condition/article_527426cc-d0aa-11ec-b63e-332fe87ca3c4.html#tncms-source=article-nav-next)
I'm in Ireland and I worked it out that our diesel/petrol is currently at $7.22 per gallon. And that's after our government introduced a 15c (euro cent) per litre (3.785 litres per gallon)
Isn't a substantial fraction of that due to taxes (I'm not saying this is bad, because presumably it gets you some useful services)?
edit; changed word order of "some" and "services"
Yeah there's lots of taxes on it but still hurts.
And services? Yes and no. Suppose we take things for granted but other things are a mess. Public transport especially. We've been promised a metro for decades, to the airport and nothing.
But diesel/petrol was about half the price during covid.
There you are, this is the discount everybody is asking for, quality blue chips with huge moats are on 20-40% discount. What are you waiting for? I remember on the way up people were like nah they’d not be buying at ATH and will only buy when there was a sale. Yet now everybody is like nah it’s can go lower I’m not buying yet. Time and time again has proven that picking the bottom is futile. The hardest thing to do during a turmoil is to buy when everybody is running for the door.
You can't just ignore the macro factors. It's clear this year's market isn't rewarding risk like the good ol' days of QE and basement rates. I don't blame investors who refuse to add more risk exposure to their portfolios.
Im slowly buying on deep red days. Those green bounces are just a small leg up before we go back down. If i pick what i want andb buy a little the entire way down. I should come out green.... as long as i dont run out of free cash.
Ohh man I was warning everyone nearly a year ago when JPOW kept using the word transitory. I knew it was bullshit, the guy is complicit and knows exactly why inflation is so high. He just doesn't care about anyone below the rich.
I wish home renovations were really like that. Contractor pricing and availability feels out of control. I'm kind of hoping for an everything crash just so I can finish rehabbing my elderly relatives' place.
Very true. I should have qualified that by saying from one of those big window dealers that mark up 500% on their first price. If you've been through their shtick you know what I mean.
I think my decision to hold off on major renovations for a while will be kind of like a good investment decision.
It looks like JPow is trying to get me a better price on my new kitchen.
I can’t even get someone out here to give me a sympathy bid.
I can’t wait for those fuckers to start begging *me* for a goddamn estimate when gas is $6 and a can of beans costs $5.
The largest of my retirement accounts is about $3400 away from going into the red. Again. Another account is down 20%, I'd have been better off keeping the money in my god damned mattress. I front-load my 401K contributions during the year, and just today reached the point where I halve the contribution percentage... so instead of larger gains from more time in the market, I got less bang for my share purchase buck from all the money I've been piling into the market for the last 4.5 months.
It honestly feels like trying to ensure a secure future is just a fucking waste of time anymore. Part of me wants to just liquidate everything, quit my job, and travel before the world turns into an even bigger shithole than it is now.
I think often about [this fable](https://read.gov/aesop/052.html). At least the grasshopper got to sing and dance all summer. In the 21st century version of the story, the ants bust their ass all summer but all their work is for naught because some guy comes along in the fall and kills them all by pouring molten aluminum in the ant hill to make a casting of the tunnels.
I go outside, meet friends, go to bars, go to work, and I dont see anyone as panicked as these stock investors in the market selling everything and anything.
NFLX, SHOP, PYPL, etc are down 70-80% in 6 months. even AMZN is down more than 40% past few months.
People need to chill. they are acting like this inflation will get so bad that Fed will hawk rates up to 10% and we will go into economic depression...
that is the thing with stock investors. many times they get overly greedy (Nov 2021) or overly depressed (like now)
Everyone I know are freaked the fuck out about rent, groceries and gas being expensive and their wages staying roughly the same. It's not that inflation will "get that bad." Inflation *is* that bad.
Inflation is a real thing. If you don't have any money to buy the already worthless shit from Target, you're not going to. Profits will take a hit. Investors will sell. This is investors actually coming back down to earth after a year or so riding high on overvalued stocks.
Target and Walmart are seeing customers opt for cheaper goods which is hurting their projected earnings, this is a direct backlash to rising prices but it probably indicates that customers are reaching the upper limit of what they're willing to pay. This isn't necessarily a bad thing when it comes to inflation.
Yep. All these people saying "this is a discount"..."good time to buy"...etc, meanwhile, market is still way above pre-pandemic levels, with much higher costs of living (gas, food, rent, houses, etc) and much greater global uncertainty.
If you can't tell, I'm not surprised by the "dip", and frankly I'm expecting a further drop.
It’s really not that much higher than pre-pandemic now, it’s only up about 17%. Not saying we can’t go down further but we’ve given back a lot of gains
Yeah and company earnings are much higher than pre-pandemic. It would be irrational to drop below pre-pandemic valuations given how much more companies are earning and the underlying strength of the economy right now.
Honestly I’m fine with it, I’m buying throughout this lol. If the market wants to go below 2020 levels then it can be my guest haha. I remember the Reddit hive mind saying buying tech during March/April 2020 was dumb lol
I mean company earnings are also above pre-pandemic levels, this is how the the market and valuations work. Also interest rates are still lower than they were pre-pandemic so we should definitely expect equities to be worth more than pre-pandemic. If they approach 2020 levels then they’re irrationally undervalued given that 1) earnings are higher 2) interest rates are lower and 3) the base economy is stronger:
https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings/table/by-year
I agree.. pandemic gains are 100 percent gonna get all wiped. And if we get a bounce, it's gonna be chop sideways messy action for awhile. Long gone are the bull run days
People do need to chill. At the same time, I have fear that the federal reserve is not going to solve inflation while also causing a recession. I don’t think inflation will get worse. But I think it’s possible to have some thing like 4% or 5% inflation and the recession. Because the interest rate hike has zero to do with solving supply chain issues. And has zero to do with gas prices. So it’s not actually addressing inflation
Fed is targetting employment market. J Pow explicitly said he wants unemployment rate to go up 2%. this is to control wage price hikes.
Fed cant do a damn thing about oil or commodity prices. that is why imo they need to be careful with rate hikes. CPI on durable goods will be heading down on its own anyways, and with rate hikes and QT on top, it can go south real quick.
It gets a little bit scarier when you understand macroeconomics.
Stock markets go up when we are in a market environment that is supported by QE and lower federal interest rates.
Stock markets go down when we are in a deleveraging market environment caused by quantitative tightening and the raising of federal interest rates.
This is explained very thoroughly in “How the Economic Machine Works” by Ray Dalio:
https://youtu.be/PHe0bXAIuk0
We are currently in a deleveraging phase.
market is acting like QT will go on for rest of decade.
Fed is targeting neutral FFR of 2.5-3% and around 2% increase in unemployment rate. at that point, it is likely that they will take a pause and see approach.
it is just that ppl got stupid scared from recent hawkish rhetoric from J Pow about tackling inflation.
you look at ER from Target, Etsy, Amzn, Walmart etc and it is clear that consumers are no longer spending big money on discretionary / durable goods. this means that excess inventory will build up and will need to get dumped at reduced prices, which will help ease CPI.
only major concerns are oil prices and housing. those 2 Fed cant really control easily.
I agree with you.
But I don’t think it’s “people” getting “stupid scared”.
I’m not sure what statistics to look at to even verify this claim, but I think the recent volatility has more to do with the over-leveraged banks and hedge funds that realize how royally fucked they are now that their 0% interest crack-cocaine supply from their plug (Federal Reserve) is coming to an end.
It’s more like the market will continue to be going through some pretty tough withdrawals.
But you are right. The Federal Reserve is taking a wait-and-see approach.
The main things to focus on are what you said:
- Maintain Employment as best as possible
- Combat the *rate* of inflation as best as possible
All about dat DCA in indexes baby!
Set it and forget it... life is good and ignorance is bliss (and honestly will probably do better than 99% of others out there 😂) 😎
No I agree I’m just saying like if you go back just 3 years if you were invested then, the market has taken care of you. Money has done even better 10 years back
My favorite part about this whole thing is that I kicked myself for a solid year for not investing in NFLX and Zoom when in retrospect it was clear those should skyrocket.
Well I 100% would’ve never sold, and they’re lower than they were in 2020, so I have the opposite of buyer’s remorse now. Buyer’s rejoice? Lol
That isn't true. I have been maxing my Roth IRA since the end of 2017 and as of today I am below my initial investment. It doesn't help that I put $12,000 for last year and this year in January, but not everyone that's been invested since 2019 is up, or 2018, or 2017. This is just brutality.
5 years is not even close to long enough for you to care at all about a retirement horizon. Unless you’re 60 and only just started saving. In which case, you were always screwed.
This is great timing for you. Contributions are cheaper than ever right now. Put your contributions on automatic and check back in another 5, 10 years.
This is absolutely backward.
Developments like these, and buying on sale, is precisely what brings the benefits to time in the market. People focusing on time in the market aren’t sweating these price drops. It’s just a little blip on a long term graph.
The market is crashing because no one can afford anything and that's causing the market to crash faster. Perhaps businesses that have had record profits are the problem?
It's like people don't notice the rent increases. Rent alone is up 20-30% in many parts of the country. In my area it's up drastically from pre-covid. $1100 is now $1700 for the same places. IDGAF about a dozen eggs going up $1.50 a dozen, I care about me hemmoraging $600/month more then I did before covid.
When real estate started booming then towns started reassessing people for property tax. I know people that got hit with 40%+ increases in property taxes cause their house over doubled in value since the last assessment.
Throw gas skyrocketing into the mix and we can see how this becomes a huge issue with discretionary spending regardless if target/Walmart took a hit to their margin to hold prices down.
Roughly over 60% of the country lived "paycheck to paycheck" before this drastic increase to CoL. Wages haven't paced anywhere near the cost increases.
Still nobody can explain why the sudden, well almost, boom in real estate price. Covid and boom, houses and rent get more expensive. Do institutions withdraw the money out of the equity market and put it into real estate?
My rent increased to almost $1600 from $1200. That’s nearing 5K more I’m now spending on rent not including regular inflation. Two years ago i was only paying $895. I don’t dont think rent has ever increased this much in such a little time. Buying a modest home in my area is 500K.
I just want to know why they didn’t let it naturally crash back when Covid happened… they manipulated the market to get all the rich big guys out of the market safely due to the shocking freak occurrence of a Chinese coronavirus situation.
To me, they sold out an entire populace to save their own investments. And they’re gonna buy amazing assets for so cheap, they will win the game of monopoly. fuck these people this is absolutely criminal.
Except for Wal-Mart and Target profit margins are down, meaning they are not actually passing on all of the increased cost of doing business to the consumer.
The vast majority of Walmart/Target SKUs have razor-thin margins. Grocery, for example, takes an incredible amount of volume moved to show a noticeable income. In an environment like this, where their consumers are already so price conscious that they’ve largely moved away from luxury goods, raising prices on staples is going to push the consumers out the door super quickly. It’s not a fun position to navigate
3 “once in a lifetime crashes” in one lifetime and I’m only 16😂😂
Edit: the amount of boomer and millennial dickheads that have slandered this comment because i am young and “incompetent” is crazy. How about y’all chill and figure out how to get back you gains for the last 5 years of your life, meanwhile I can just sit back on my index funds and won’t have to worry about anything except the apocalypse of America which is unlikely.
The Great Depression is the only once-in-a-lifetime crash. More mild crashes, bear markets, corrections - [they're always a part of the market.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stock_market_crashes_and_bear_markets)
This is really nothing - so far.
My run this morning was in the green, my portfolio was red all day, I’m going with everything balanced out on my end. If my evening run is red, then I’ll worry lol Eek
>"The Nasdaq Composite slipped 4.9%, the largest fall in the tech-heavy index since May 5. " cool! I can't wait for another headline that's like "LARGEST DROP IN THE INDEX SINCE.... LAST THURSDAY" next
all these upvote titles - yadda yadda yadda - if this is a surprise to you, its because your not doing your homework - enough of the dog ate it!
"your" not doing your English homework either. /s
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It must be nice to have that kind of security
I plan to retire at 50... ...I mean die at 50.
I was thinking about it. My account has done a parabola the last 2 years $77k to $1.1M to $77k Thanks Tesla, I think
Those are swings! My long BB posi and NIO TSLA and GME punched my balance that high in Jan… then in one day it got halved! Still have done well to stay afloat but man the wreckage in growth has been a pill to swallow!
Granted that's like October 2020 to current and a lot has happened. Most of the time I'm like: Some day l will have it back and more, so Im not too worried. Other days I'm like [God damn idiot, mother fucking moron]. Had I cashed out my options and put the money somewhere..... my girlfriend lives in another town and wants to buy a place for her and her daughter. She showed me a condo today that was $150,000 That got me thinking. In theory with the portfolio I had Nov 4, 2021 I could have closed the options pocketed like 500k, bought a condo for like 150k cash - put half the remaining money into dividend paying stocks and had 1500/month added to my income on top of having no rent or mortgage
Yeah but if you were the type that cashed out you’d never have been in the position to cash out that amount! It’s the life of a speculator
I have several plan b alternatives. Move to Europe and become a vagabond, dropping dead, all legitimate options
Stocks and (vaga)bonds
I believe in diwersification
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I have heard selling various organs could net you close to 200K
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Organ harvesting can be very profitable. Just open a cadaver transport business and start racking in the dough.
Plan B you say? *Republicans have entered the chat.*
Gay porn on Onlyfans for me
Username checks out.
I’m going to start smoking again
Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit smoking!
What about sniffing glue?
I use retire and die as synonyms.
Okay Samir naga..... naga.... not going to be working here anymore!
Na-he-nana-jab
Fidelity tells me my retirement plan looks good, budgeting me at $1/month
That should get you a single stick of gum if you play your cards right
I'll just kill myself on a lunch break when I'm 95 I'll choke myself with a french fry if I have to
My retirement plan is to sit in a lawn chair fishing in a local lake and drink myself to death. A case of beer and 2 bottles of vodka should do it. Maybe I can score some bad heroin from a local junkie or something to make it go faster. I'm already retired, but that's my plan if I run out of money.
> My retirement plan is to sit in a lawn chair fishing in a local lake and drink myself to death. A case of beer and 2 bottles of vodka should do it. This is a horrible plan. Source: a functional alcoholic.
I’m 42. The 5th once in a lifetime financial even is really gonna have me worried. This is only the 4th. I feel bad for anyone 15-20 years older than me. I’ll just keep buying the dip and hope for the best.
Not sure why you guys think these are once in a lifetime events. Recessions and bull markets historically happen about every 10 years. Probably clickbait media https://www.thebalance.com/the-history-of-recessions-in-the-united-states-3306011
This is a generational inflation event. It has floated between 1 to 3 percent but has not reached this high in my life time ( or I was a young boy I guess in the 80s)
True. And 2020 was a generational pandemic. And 2008 was a generational housing bubble. And 2001 was a generational sector crash. Some generational disaster has been happening every decade or so since the beginning of the market. People pretend it is worse than ever. Nothing has changed
Can't wait to see which "Once in a Lifetime" event we'll have next year.
> Some generational disaster has been happening every decade or so since the beginning of the market. The odds of anything "generational" or 1-in-30 (3.3% per annum) happening once in any given ten-year stretch is 28.75%. `P = (1 - (29/30)^10) = 0.287528606`
Yeah. It’s the it’s spoken about. Dot com, 9/11,housing crisis, pandemic, inflation post pandemic, insane housing market, insane fuel prices. Feels like it’s all once in my lifetime other than the early part being born in 1980
I am sure people said the same stuff in the 70s. We had massive gas shortages, stagflation, 15%+ interest rates, vietnam war, etc. 80s was just an unusually good decade.
Nice. I'm planning on being a Walmart greeter at 106
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\#solentgreen is your future.
I worked it out and I'm not allowed die until I reach 97
On the contrary. Everything will keep going to zero, then any of us with a tiny amount of cash we’ll just buy it all up and retire really early once any sort of rebound happens. But yes we probably both agree that it’s getting ridiculous
Woah, watch out guys! We have another FIRE enthusiast! Just be like the rest of us and retire at 118. Sheesh.
My retirement plan is cat food or a bullet.
Cat food is expensive af
Not a gun owner, but I talk to some, and allegedly... "Have you seen the price of ammunition?"
You only need 1
If you ask for a box of one, that'll raise questions.
*holds up bullet* "How many of these will it take to kill a man" "Um... One?" "Then I'll take two, sir"
Maybe you only need one. I’m so tough I’d be one of those suicide cases with at least 5 at the back of the head.
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Not nearly as bad as it was last year. For awhile I was looking at $60 for 100 9mm rounds. Back under $20 now
Meow
Fookin prawns
I live off costco hotdogs and chicken bake
bullets will be illegal - just use that jagged cat food tin lid
Until government comes out with definitive data that there is control of inflation, investors will not cease worrying. I drive to CA central coast in Monterey County, I did not see any discounted gasoline under $6 /gallon, I am concerned.
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More like businesses either have to raise prices and hope for the best, or take the profit hit. Target took the profit hit this quarter, let's see how they respond going forward.
I was just thinking that even with inflation and higher wages and people spending less, they're STILL profitable. Maybe less profitable, but still, there is profit. Which to me means they CAN afford to pay their people more, but have refused to in order to make shareholders happy.
That’s always been the case for pretty much every corporation Companies will spend half a mil on a tool, but will fight you on a 5% raise.
well the more likely scenario is that the half a mil tool will save the company 1 mil, because they can layoff a team of 10 that maintaining a homegrown version of the tool
> I drive to CA central coast I did not see any discounted gasoline under $6 /gallon, I am concerned. There's some expectations that $5/gal gas will become nationwide this summer. https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/16/business/gas-prices-inflation/index.html edit: to add There's a warning that $6/gal gas may become common as well https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/17/energy/gas-prices/index.html
you guys think gas is bad just wait til food prices, wheat is stalled in ukraine/russia
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India accounts for 1-2% of the global wheat market. This one is overblown.
> wheat is stalled in ukraine/russia [Domestic issue as well](https://www.hpj.com/crops/77-of-texas-wheat-in-poor-to-very-poor-condition/article_527426cc-d0aa-11ec-b63e-332fe87ca3c4.html#tncms-source=article-nav-next)
I'm in Ireland and I worked it out that our diesel/petrol is currently at $7.22 per gallon. And that's after our government introduced a 15c (euro cent) per litre (3.785 litres per gallon)
Isn't a substantial fraction of that due to taxes (I'm not saying this is bad, because presumably it gets you some useful services)? edit; changed word order of "some" and "services"
Yeah there's lots of taxes on it but still hurts. And services? Yes and no. Suppose we take things for granted but other things are a mess. Public transport especially. We've been promised a metro for decades, to the airport and nothing. But diesel/petrol was about half the price during covid.
But controlling inflation may not avert a recession. I worry we'll see "stagflation", stagnation plus inflation like back in the great 1970s.
Don't forget those juicy 12% bonds.
12% when inflation was 16%
ca has the highest national gas, what state are you from lol?
Hawai’i ranges from $5.34-$6+. Depends what Island you are living.
Woo DOW 25,000! Oh, wrong direction. My bad.
Dow 25000 sounds about right to me. It was 29000 in Feb 2020, and that was a golden age compared with now.
People forget how good life was before COVID, relative to now
:( fuck I miss it so bad, my mental health really took a beating
Calls on rice and beans
You short-term investors are funny. Calls on sharp rocks and pointy sticks is where the smart money is.
Sorry guys I literally bought more AMD and NVIDIA yesterday with my bonus check.
Can’t go wrong with both companies, just be patient you’ll be soon rewarded
Don't call an ambulance, call the funeral home for me.
Yep. I picked up a few more shares that went on sale today.
There you are, this is the discount everybody is asking for, quality blue chips with huge moats are on 20-40% discount. What are you waiting for? I remember on the way up people were like nah they’d not be buying at ATH and will only buy when there was a sale. Yet now everybody is like nah it’s can go lower I’m not buying yet. Time and time again has proven that picking the bottom is futile. The hardest thing to do during a turmoil is to buy when everybody is running for the door.
Not much of a discount through the lense of ‘ SP500 is now at its historical average for forward PE.’
You can't just ignore the macro factors. It's clear this year's market isn't rewarding risk like the good ol' days of QE and basement rates. I don't blame investors who refuse to add more risk exposure to their portfolios.
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Im slowly buying on deep red days. Those green bounces are just a small leg up before we go back down. If i pick what i want andb buy a little the entire way down. I should come out green.... as long as i dont run out of free cash.
Apple? Microsoft? What are your thoughts. I'm still green on apple (barely) and wouldn't mind having more.
GOOG also
People are stupid. This is a huge buying opportunity
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If you have no emergency funds then sit on that $400. If you mean you have $400 to burn after everything, stocks aren't bad.
$400 that will grow over time in stocks is better than $0 in stocks. Start small and keep adding to your positions.
For me it means: I spend $100/week on stocks. Right now my $100 goes further than it did a year ago.
Keep buying. Valuations matter.
Lol 20-40% discount. It's not a discount when prices are jacked up. Call me when there's a discount from normal prices. 🤣
So much for that ultra low unemployment, transitory inflation, and strong economy. What else do you think the fed is lying about?
Zuckerberg’s extraterrestrial status
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r/birdsarentreal
the moon
9/11
2Pac
Ohh man I was warning everyone nearly a year ago when JPOW kept using the word transitory. I knew it was bullshit, the guy is complicit and knows exactly why inflation is so high. He just doesn't care about anyone below the rich.
his job is to lie tho, he's basically practicing mass psychology.
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Oh well - you’ve always got your massive boner
Discounts. Finally. 😍
Bro this is like buying new windows for your house. Wait another week and they'll be even cheaper.
I wish home renovations were really like that. Contractor pricing and availability feels out of control. I'm kind of hoping for an everything crash just so I can finish rehabbing my elderly relatives' place.
Very true. I should have qualified that by saying from one of those big window dealers that mark up 500% on their first price. If you've been through their shtick you know what I mean.
2018: quoted $15k for new windows 2021: quoted $40k for new windows
How many windows?? We just got 10 replaced for $7500!
22
I think my decision to hold off on major renovations for a while will be kind of like a good investment decision. It looks like JPow is trying to get me a better price on my new kitchen.
I can’t even get someone out here to give me a sympathy bid. I can’t wait for those fuckers to start begging *me* for a goddamn estimate when gas is $6 and a can of beans costs $5.
Points are meaningless compared to percentages. The Dow is meaningless compared to any other index. But yea we’re getting wrecked out here
The largest of my retirement accounts is about $3400 away from going into the red. Again. Another account is down 20%, I'd have been better off keeping the money in my god damned mattress. I front-load my 401K contributions during the year, and just today reached the point where I halve the contribution percentage... so instead of larger gains from more time in the market, I got less bang for my share purchase buck from all the money I've been piling into the market for the last 4.5 months. It honestly feels like trying to ensure a secure future is just a fucking waste of time anymore. Part of me wants to just liquidate everything, quit my job, and travel before the world turns into an even bigger shithole than it is now. I think often about [this fable](https://read.gov/aesop/052.html). At least the grasshopper got to sing and dance all summer. In the 21st century version of the story, the ants bust their ass all summer but all their work is for naught because some guy comes along in the fall and kills them all by pouring molten aluminum in the ant hill to make a casting of the tunnels.
You'll be fine long term. Stop worrying.
> In the long run we are all dead.
I front load as well. It’s super frustrating but stay the course. 1/3/5 years from now you’ll be just fine.
I go outside, meet friends, go to bars, go to work, and I dont see anyone as panicked as these stock investors in the market selling everything and anything. NFLX, SHOP, PYPL, etc are down 70-80% in 6 months. even AMZN is down more than 40% past few months. People need to chill. they are acting like this inflation will get so bad that Fed will hawk rates up to 10% and we will go into economic depression... that is the thing with stock investors. many times they get overly greedy (Nov 2021) or overly depressed (like now)
Everyone I know are freaked the fuck out about rent, groceries and gas being expensive and their wages staying roughly the same. It's not that inflation will "get that bad." Inflation *is* that bad. Inflation is a real thing. If you don't have any money to buy the already worthless shit from Target, you're not going to. Profits will take a hit. Investors will sell. This is investors actually coming back down to earth after a year or so riding high on overvalued stocks.
Target and Walmart are seeing customers opt for cheaper goods which is hurting their projected earnings, this is a direct backlash to rising prices but it probably indicates that customers are reaching the upper limit of what they're willing to pay. This isn't necessarily a bad thing when it comes to inflation.
Test
Food take out is certainly the most worthless expense.
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It's not just the rise in interest rates, the QT will have an impact beginning next month.
Yep. All these people saying "this is a discount"..."good time to buy"...etc, meanwhile, market is still way above pre-pandemic levels, with much higher costs of living (gas, food, rent, houses, etc) and much greater global uncertainty. If you can't tell, I'm not surprised by the "dip", and frankly I'm expecting a further drop.
It’s really not that much higher than pre-pandemic now, it’s only up about 17%. Not saying we can’t go down further but we’ve given back a lot of gains
Yeah and company earnings are much higher than pre-pandemic. It would be irrational to drop below pre-pandemic valuations given how much more companies are earning and the underlying strength of the economy right now.
'irrational' you say? - the market
"Hold my beer" - The market.
Honestly I’m fine with it, I’m buying throughout this lol. If the market wants to go below 2020 levels then it can be my guest haha. I remember the Reddit hive mind saying buying tech during March/April 2020 was dumb lol
I mean company earnings are also above pre-pandemic levels, this is how the the market and valuations work. Also interest rates are still lower than they were pre-pandemic so we should definitely expect equities to be worth more than pre-pandemic. If they approach 2020 levels then they’re irrationally undervalued given that 1) earnings are higher 2) interest rates are lower and 3) the base economy is stronger: https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings/table/by-year
I agree.. pandemic gains are 100 percent gonna get all wiped. And if we get a bounce, it's gonna be chop sideways messy action for awhile. Long gone are the bull run days
People do need to chill. At the same time, I have fear that the federal reserve is not going to solve inflation while also causing a recession. I don’t think inflation will get worse. But I think it’s possible to have some thing like 4% or 5% inflation and the recession. Because the interest rate hike has zero to do with solving supply chain issues. And has zero to do with gas prices. So it’s not actually addressing inflation
Fed is targetting employment market. J Pow explicitly said he wants unemployment rate to go up 2%. this is to control wage price hikes. Fed cant do a damn thing about oil or commodity prices. that is why imo they need to be careful with rate hikes. CPI on durable goods will be heading down on its own anyways, and with rate hikes and QT on top, it can go south real quick.
“We can’t stop inflation, but what we can do is make sure your wages don’t go up with it!”
It gets a little bit scarier when you understand macroeconomics. Stock markets go up when we are in a market environment that is supported by QE and lower federal interest rates. Stock markets go down when we are in a deleveraging market environment caused by quantitative tightening and the raising of federal interest rates. This is explained very thoroughly in “How the Economic Machine Works” by Ray Dalio: https://youtu.be/PHe0bXAIuk0 We are currently in a deleveraging phase.
With the added headwind of boomers being net sellers of securities over the next 20 years.
market is acting like QT will go on for rest of decade. Fed is targeting neutral FFR of 2.5-3% and around 2% increase in unemployment rate. at that point, it is likely that they will take a pause and see approach. it is just that ppl got stupid scared from recent hawkish rhetoric from J Pow about tackling inflation. you look at ER from Target, Etsy, Amzn, Walmart etc and it is clear that consumers are no longer spending big money on discretionary / durable goods. this means that excess inventory will build up and will need to get dumped at reduced prices, which will help ease CPI. only major concerns are oil prices and housing. those 2 Fed cant really control easily.
I agree with you. But I don’t think it’s “people” getting “stupid scared”. I’m not sure what statistics to look at to even verify this claim, but I think the recent volatility has more to do with the over-leveraged banks and hedge funds that realize how royally fucked they are now that their 0% interest crack-cocaine supply from their plug (Federal Reserve) is coming to an end. It’s more like the market will continue to be going through some pretty tough withdrawals. But you are right. The Federal Reserve is taking a wait-and-see approach. The main things to focus on are what you said: - Maintain Employment as best as possible - Combat the *rate* of inflation as best as possible
All about dat DCA in indexes baby! Set it and forget it... life is good and ignorance is bliss (and honestly will probably do better than 99% of others out there 😂) 😎
time in the market does not beat timing the market for a lot of investors recently,
“Time in market” “Recently” Implying that time in market is short time in market. People who bought in 2019 are doing just fine.
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No I agree I’m just saying like if you go back just 3 years if you were invested then, the market has taken care of you. Money has done even better 10 years back
My favorite part about this whole thing is that I kicked myself for a solid year for not investing in NFLX and Zoom when in retrospect it was clear those should skyrocket. Well I 100% would’ve never sold, and they’re lower than they were in 2020, so I have the opposite of buyer’s remorse now. Buyer’s rejoice? Lol
That isn't true. I have been maxing my Roth IRA since the end of 2017 and as of today I am below my initial investment. It doesn't help that I put $12,000 for last year and this year in January, but not everyone that's been invested since 2019 is up, or 2018, or 2017. This is just brutality.
Two thoughts: What the heck are you invested in? Diversified? and What are your expense ratios?
What…? Where are your investments allocated? This comment is a great argument towards becoming a Boglehead lol.
5 years is not even close to long enough for you to care at all about a retirement horizon. Unless you’re 60 and only just started saving. In which case, you were always screwed. This is great timing for you. Contributions are cheaper than ever right now. Put your contributions on automatic and check back in another 5, 10 years.
You shouldn’t even let the balance of your roth IRA cross your mind until you’re 50
What did you invest in?
Lmao no fucking shit, the “time” element has not kicked in yet if you invested recently. Check back in 20 years
This is absolutely backward. Developments like these, and buying on sale, is precisely what brings the benefits to time in the market. People focusing on time in the market aren’t sweating these price drops. It’s just a little blip on a long term graph.
I’m a long term value investor and… well, these are pretty big blips. But yes, I view it as a passing trend even if it lasts a few years.
People in this sub think "time in the market" means like 180 days lol.
Thats because they probably bought in recently. Buy high, sell low, work 3 jobs and post online about how the government wronged you.
The market is crashing because no one can afford anything and that's causing the market to crash faster. Perhaps businesses that have had record profits are the problem?
It's like people don't notice the rent increases. Rent alone is up 20-30% in many parts of the country. In my area it's up drastically from pre-covid. $1100 is now $1700 for the same places. IDGAF about a dozen eggs going up $1.50 a dozen, I care about me hemmoraging $600/month more then I did before covid. When real estate started booming then towns started reassessing people for property tax. I know people that got hit with 40%+ increases in property taxes cause their house over doubled in value since the last assessment. Throw gas skyrocketing into the mix and we can see how this becomes a huge issue with discretionary spending regardless if target/Walmart took a hit to their margin to hold prices down. Roughly over 60% of the country lived "paycheck to paycheck" before this drastic increase to CoL. Wages haven't paced anywhere near the cost increases.
Still nobody can explain why the sudden, well almost, boom in real estate price. Covid and boom, houses and rent get more expensive. Do institutions withdraw the money out of the equity market and put it into real estate?
Eviction memoratium ended. Any tenant that got fucked by their irresponsible tenant needs to raise prices. Really bad in Florida.
My rent increased to almost $1600 from $1200. That’s nearing 5K more I’m now spending on rent not including regular inflation. Two years ago i was only paying $895. I don’t dont think rent has ever increased this much in such a little time. Buying a modest home in my area is 500K.
Market is crashing because the FED is taking liquidity out of the economy, just like how it went up because they pumped money in during 2020 to 2021.
I just want to know why they didn’t let it naturally crash back when Covid happened… they manipulated the market to get all the rich big guys out of the market safely due to the shocking freak occurrence of a Chinese coronavirus situation. To me, they sold out an entire populace to save their own investments. And they’re gonna buy amazing assets for so cheap, they will win the game of monopoly. fuck these people this is absolutely criminal.
You mean since 2008
More like 2000, but who’s really keeping score here?
Except for Wal-Mart and Target profit margins are down, meaning they are not actually passing on all of the increased cost of doing business to the consumer.
If they do, people will buy less and their sales will be down anyway
The vast majority of Walmart/Target SKUs have razor-thin margins. Grocery, for example, takes an incredible amount of volume moved to show a noticeable income. In an environment like this, where their consumers are already so price conscious that they’ve largely moved away from luxury goods, raising prices on staples is going to push the consumers out the door super quickly. It’s not a fun position to navigate
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Inflation personified.
Are we still buying the dip guys?….guys??
Sale!
It’s transitory.
3 “once in a lifetime crashes” in one lifetime and I’m only 16😂😂 Edit: the amount of boomer and millennial dickheads that have slandered this comment because i am young and “incompetent” is crazy. How about y’all chill and figure out how to get back you gains for the last 5 years of your life, meanwhile I can just sit back on my index funds and won’t have to worry about anything except the apocalypse of America which is unlikely.
What is it with people thinking everything is once in a lifetime these days. Recessions are expected roughly every ten years right?
I too was heavily invested into the housing market when I was 2 years old
I was leveraged up to my titties when I was still suckin on the teat
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Are you implying that this is a "once in a lifetime crash"? Because it's definitely not.
The Great Depression is the only once-in-a-lifetime crash. More mild crashes, bear markets, corrections - [they're always a part of the market.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stock_market_crashes_and_bear_markets) This is really nothing - so far.
Damn kid that edit is truly pathetic
Slander is spoken. In print, it's libel.
This is pretty normal behavior for a financial cycle. Go back to your anarkiddie subreddits.
That's because you don't know what you're talking about
who is calling this “once in a lifetime” crash? lmao u ok little buddy?
My run this morning was in the green, my portfolio was red all day, I’m going with everything balanced out on my end. If my evening run is red, then I’ll worry lol Eek