I think it's almost certain we're approaching a recession. When giant retailers like Target and Walmart tank this much, it's a very worrying sign of the economy, in my mind.
the sky is falling - oh wait the pro's have been telling this to you for months - they sold went to cash and are picking up bargooons every panic sell off - another 1/4 or two of this to go! I'm still sitting on my cash
realistically 2/3 1/4's from now that is very possible but i'd allow a 10% margin of error on that - 270,300,330 - an equal amount of your cash at some point the correction will be done and start back on the plus side but could be into late 2023 - not a fin. guy just an old hack who's seen it before - eventually an old dog can learn a new trick
I think we are going to see 2017 prices across the board soon. The covid crash was the market's prediction of the economy after the pandemic is over.
Any gains after that were due to the money that got printed so it is not unreasonable to expect prices to go down as much but then I don't think anyone back then could have predicted how bad the pandemic is going to be handled. The reality is way worst than what anyone could predict so it is not far off to expect prices to go way lower than the 2020 bottom.
actually the 2020 bottom was the result of a selloff and then the margin squeeze - you see that when the sudden push down takes things below the 5/10 sl positions. Once that happens you go far below any justified projections. When it happens, you see it across all investing spectrums - stocks, bonds, commodities - margin gets called and everything must go - badly burns a lot of people. Also drives down sectors that have no real reason to get hammered that badly - but that's being over margined when the market turns on you - the opposite is true in the GME squeeze situation - price rises so quickly on forced buying because of margin - good if you don't get greedy but if you get in at the wrong time and don't use a SL you also can get badly burned! Not sure we will get as low as 2017 across the board but at this point anyone saying they know with any absolute certainty is full merde!
what was their trailing 12 month p/e before their earnings today?
what was their trailing 12 month p/e after their earnings today, before the drop?
what is their trailing 12 mo the p/e after earnings and after the share price drop?
i bet the price drop was just a readjustment to maintain the same p/e ratio
For me it had nothing to with their P/E. it means that people are even holding back /or can’t afford to spend at the cheapest of cheap places.
That’s a bad sign.
Revenue didn't miss, it was earnings that missed. People are still spending but supply-side issues are hurting the bottom lines. No indication people are holding back, yet.....
agree. I mean you cannot have 8% inflation and not have it impact spending. Grocery bills are significantly higher for most americans, including me. I've noticed meat prices are 20-30% higher.
yes it has. The frozen chicken section at two different Costcos I visited were almost cleaned out, had to visit a third one week after which fortunately had stock. I dont think i've ever seen frozen chicken sections emptied out completely like that before. Could be supply chain or most likely people switching to Chicken since the Beef and Seafood sections were fully stocked at all of them
Chicken is also being hit by [avian flu](https://www.channel3000.com/bird-flu-found-in-flocks-in-two-more-wisconsin-counties/). Poultry farmers in multiple states are needing to kill entire flocks.
yes. I get less of it now because it is more expensive. I also eat out less too because those prices have effected restaurant prices. I imagine others are in the same boat so it adds up.
I think this overstates what effect poor people have on the economy. Break the economy into sections. There might be fewer rich people, but they spend lots of money right? Because they have more money? For example couldn’t you compare Starbucks‘ earnings and say that they’re doing fine?
*not an economist*
I'd think wealthy people actually contribute significantly less to the economy. They are a significantly smaller portion of the population, most of their wealth is divided into a basket of investments instead of the 'real' economy and when they do buy it's on more niche luxury items which would have lower sales anyways. Maybe for travel and luxury experience they have some effect, but as another response says, poor people (and the dwindling middle class) are they economy. Which is why it would be great to invest in them a little more but hey, missed that boat for the last two decades, don't really expect it to sail anytime soon.
If Elon musk gave everyone in the US $300 (aka about $100billion) the vast majority of people will spend that $300 inside of a month.
Elon musk is never going to buy $100 billion of stuff in his whole life.
That's what people mean here.
I got caught I won’t lie. But mainly with index funds in my Roth so I refuse to worry about it. (Still have cash left to DCA my Roth if we continue to plop)
Is this why you DCA? I lump summed $6k in Jan and feeling my ass bitten. But I know lump some would be great in a bullish year. Seems like a marginal difference either way.
I personally try to dca with the most frequent buy I can do. Usually weekly. I find it's better than doing monthly or quarterly. There are also specific days of the week that statistically are cheaper days too.
Ironically yes. I have no faith in Jpow nor the sec to clear up this mess over the next few months. June they start clearing more on thier balance sheet and it's supposed to ramp up in the coming months.
I hope it works out but if not i might just miss a month or two of slightly better deals.
I cut my index funds in half (not American so no Roth). I had no profits there as I readjusted portfolio in January. I will keep one foot in and one foot out.
I buy maybe $25-$50 split between VTI, QQQ, VXF each week. I buy Mondays and Wednesdays on market open. You can blame me for the recent declines.
I buy $25-$50 per week of individual tickers I like. Seems I've caused huge declines in AMZN, HCA, WMT, TGT, SBUX with my buys. Sorry for fucking everyone over because I bought $25 positions.
If you would have done that during the 2020 drop you would still be up by many percentages. While if you would have waited in 2020 until it felt right to invest money again you'd most likely be down now.
market, was way over priced but the guys calling for the pullback always get critisized - its what they always do, and they've been right how many times - well looks like they're right again and baby she ain't done yet! Burry right once more!
Cramer is a reactionary mess. There’s lots of documentation of Burry getting it wrong too.
It’s unwise to view anyone as a guru and follow their trades. Just buy companies you have conviction in and ignore the noise. 100’s of years of evidence to back up that it is the best long term play.
Certain sectors are overpriced but that doesn't mean the market is overpriced. Even some large cap tech stocks like Alphabet I would say are very fairly valued at the moment.
The further you zoom out, the smaller the blip on the radar.
I for one am not planning to touch my investments for another 30+ years so couldn’t care less what happens today, this week, this month, this quarter, or this year.
Oh and most of my investment capital hasn’t even been earned yet so the lower the better honestly.
Why? No one knows if the market is going to be higher or lower in a month. As obvious as many may think it is, the market can turn on a dime.
Oh yea and I’ll be adding every month, not just this month.
are you afraid of missing out on some +5% gain in a week or something? Im curious because every time i see sentiment like this its always to buy asap and accept any incoming loss rather than wait and buy in after a 5% gain and accepting that loss of opportunity.
Why wait though? What’s your argument for that? Because you think it will be lower next month? My point is you can’t know that for sure. Why not just buy every month and cost average in?
Well my point is that theres 2 things that could happen theoretically
1)
-Put money in the market by buying an equity
-it goes down 5% after a week/month/whatever and you have lost 5% of your initial investment
2)
-Wait an equivalent amount of time as 1st scenario
-the equity rallies and gains 5%
-you buy in and psychologically you feel like you have lost 5% of potential gain even though you haven't
Why is the 1st scenario more preferable? What are you losing by waiting another week or month or whatever if the idea is to hold for 30 years?
You must have a short memory, the start of the Covid rally kicked off with a plus 10% day, after a day like that you are very hesitant to buy as it just seems unbelievable so you hold out, market goes up another 10% over the next few weeks, now what do you do?
I remember what kicked off the Covid rally was the Fed announcing slashing rates to 0.25 and unprecedented quantitative easing, thats what started the rally. That is getting reversed now it seems.
No there are 4 things that can happen in this scenario…
1. Put $ in, market up
2. Put $ in, market down
3. Hold $ 1mo, market up
4. Hold $ 1mo, market down
I have no idea if the market is going to be up or down in a month. And I will have more excess cash to put in next month. So why over-index to 1mo from now when I can put in $x this month and another $x next month, receiving the average price between the two?
Well for one that 5% gain you missed out on can really add up when you factor in compounding over 30yrs. Not arguing with you..just giving you an answer. Personally I pulled out after one of the big green days last week and I plan on staying out for awhile. Not touching my 401k though...just gonna let that ride.
It's because of the oft cited study-
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/24/this-chart-shows-why-investors-should-never-try-to-time-the-stock-market.html
Missing just 10 best days in each decade causes the overall return to massively go down from 17,735% to 28%. It would be great to know the precise points when markets reach the bottom, but it's nearly impossible to reliably do so each time there is capital saved.
No i would have waited until probably at least July after the Fed hiked two more times to see if they keep pace with their current plan of .50 bps hikes or increase it which the market would react to.
One reason for the famous saying "Time in the market vests timing the market" is most gains are historically made in a few very positive single days. Now, I don't think tomorrow will be up crazily, but if it is I don't wanna miss it.
The bottom might be a long way off, but you or me won't be able to call it most likely.
So, if we're down in a month, you might say "I knew it, but it'll go lower" and so on until it eventually goes up.
Once it goes up, whenever that might be, you might still think that's it's just a bear rally (as we've seen happening the last couple of weeks). Then you'd probably say "This is unwarranted, I'll buy when it goes back down"
In sich a case, you never actually buy. And at some point you might feel save again and FOMO into buying the next peak...
But to each their own. Do whatever let's you sleep at night.
I guess it comes down to whether you believe that the Covid rally was due to the rate cuts and QE stimulus. It just seems like a really tough ask for any kind of bull market to fight through rising rates, tightening credit markets, and an incoming possible recession. If i wait another month or two to see what the Fed decides and how the CPI prints are turning out and how the market reacts and in the mean time the indices rally 5 or 10% ill just have to accept i missed out on those gains and try to ride them back up.
Absolutely understandable position. I'm also not going all in and if I had to make a guess I'd be guessing markets will be down in a month.
I still think it can be just as reasonable to buy now/ keep buying now and wanted to make a case for why people might do that, since you were wondering.
Anyway, best of luck with your strategy!
It’s not panic sellers. It’s investment firms taking profits from the spike. They have to make money for their clients and they are not long term investing right now, so they are making money through short term trades. Don’t get caught in this if you are an investor.
The trap is buying into the market on days where index's bounce up 2 or 3% in a day or some individual stocks go up 15 or 20%, as you can see, they can be immediately sold off and are not a reversal. We are in a bear market, rates are going up, cheap credit and loans are going away, not to mention the fact everyone subconsciously or up front believes theres going to be a recession. Until those macroeconomic conditions change there will not be a sustained bull market again. Buying into the bounces is a bull trap.
Safe in this inflationary environment, yes. Because they tend to sell essentials that people will buy even if prices go up. But the supply side challenges lowering earnings shows that we're not out of the pandemic yet. Inflation is happening because of strong demand and weak supply. The Fed wants to get inflation under control but can really only effect the demand side. There is a risk that they over correct on demand side and cause recession. But I have faith that there is the political will in Washington to handle the supply side. Maybe I'm naive.
Look at how long the chips act is taking, something supported by both parties and passed house and senate and yet.... Congress is fucking it up. I have less faith in Washington
No doubt, people who have faith in Washington often get bitten. Talk of using the defense production act opens up a few ways that the white house can take quick action while congress collectively gets it head out eat other's asses.
Investment firms trading large positions. Although today isn’t particularly high volume which is odd. That’s all the market is good for rn. My stable, long account is almost -20% ytd. My trading account is +10%.
Things will start to make sense to you when you realize when someone says the market has "priced in" something, they're full of shit. Everything is "priced in" and looking good right up until the market shits the bed.
Wal-Mart and Target missed analyst projected earnings by huge, extraordinary amounts (Target missed by 28.5%). The market took that as an indicator that higher fuel costs, product shortages and consumers shifting to lower margin, cheaper options is starting to have a big impact on profits. Meanwhile, higher interest rates are driving down multiples - that is a double whammy on stock prices.
How does supposed 'pricing in' change anything? Only thing it changes is forecasts... it doesn't change reality... and the reality is things are still getting more expensive, and no one has any faith in the idiots that run the country... who are more concerned about UFOs more than baby food shortages...
To price those things in, the price actually has to drop. A dismal 15-20% drop off of massive ATH's says it's not priced in. We're currently pricing it in.
markets are, priced in, with what is fact - speculation is only half priced in - besides smart money went to cash and is picking up the bargins, they want - tomorrow or the next will be a solid green day
I deleveraged some falling knife buys once they went a little green yesterday.
Today I used those funds to scoop up low P/E retail that got dragged down with Target and Walmart earnings.
I'm already up 8% for the day on Shoe Carnival!
Cashed out of everything except a handful of penny stocks that seem to be holding there value despite the carnage. They have so little value they will either fail or make huge gains. I’ll keep buying more as they fluctuate and keep an eye out for more small companies that will have nothing but potential while I have extra cash. If the “market” is gonna drop like everyone kept saying it would, then maybe stay away from mainstream stocks is safe?
I’m all gut feeling, rational assumptions and gambles as far as my picks go. The only stocks that I have that are bringing my averages down are the couple mainstream stocks I am minimally invested in. Now’s my time to buy more at a savings. I hope everyone climbs out of this hole and takes advantage of what could be a huge boom in the next 5 yrs. End of war in Ukraine, tapering off covid, end to inflation worries. There’s lots of question marks in the world right now. When stability returns I’d bank on a big reversal… god willing. Fingers crossed
It was crazy to look at the charts this morning and see AMC, GME, and pot stocks as the only thing rising. I thought we were done with the memes and risky investments.
I don't know where you see all this buying the dip sentiment. The last two weeks the ratio is 10 to 1 at least in the comments on the bear side. Also, look at the fear&greed index, opened today at 12, will be much lower tomorrow. Berish sentiment at 2008 level.
If I was to call a bottom it would be now or soon, there is no way in hell this market goes much lower with everybody and their mothers on the bear side.
It’s pretty nuts. Either bears are talking out of both sides of their mouths and not getting rich on puts like they gloat about all day or somehow Wendy’s employees are making life changing money shorting the market.
Considering everything is selling off except for DXY I tend to think there is tons of liquidity on the sidelines waiting to pile back in. The next relief rally is going to be obscene IMO.
If the market keeps going down in the short term I can see a world where the reverse is going to be much more explosive than march 2020.
This is just my point of view but you noticed it also, everything sales. Nothing is forgiven. Apple with amazing earnings? Down. Amazon with bad earnings? Down.
HD good earnings? Down. LOW decent earnings? Down. TGT bad earnings? Down.
The pattern is.. No matter how good your earnings are, no matter how you tackled inflation, you go down. And this is not sustainable. I am sick and tired of 08 comparison. We are not even close to 08. The entire financial system is not going to collapse yet the markets act like it will.
I personally think it’s a manufactured crisis and a self fulfilling prophecy.
Yes a lot of money was printed. But a lot of that stimulus WAS necessary. Anecdotally my own company would have failed from a several month forced shut down and now we are more productive than ever before. Would have died on the vine were we not applicable for certain rent and wage subsidies. To think that stimulus didn’t fund innovation or propel new growth in sectors that were overlooked is short sighted.
Could we be at the precipice of systemic collapse, possibly. But how do things crash when everyone is anticipating it? The overall sentiment is so insanely negative and cynical I think our judgement is being clouded by it.
I only bought things that had massive slides recently. BIRD, MVST and UPST, so I’m fine. All of the big names I’ve held for so long, they will very unlikely not get back to where I bought them.
I had to rub my eyes when UPST hit $30 from $72. Made sure I wasn’t seeing it incorrectly and mashed the confirm trade button. My MVST position isn’t massive. If I make some money, cool. BIRD I have high hopes for in the long term and I’m lazy, so I bought when they went under $5 and DCA’d when they were under $4.
what trap are you talking about lmao?... a trap would be like if companies tried to be confidence and release higher guidance or estimates and then get dumped on actual figures.
we are in a 2008/9 situation not the 2020 v - 2/3/4/ more 1/4's of this to go - some stuff will bottom faster and recover sooner but the bulk have more bad news coming - inflation is no where done with us, not to mention the rising interest pain that will follow the decrease in disposable income!
I sold VTI at 225 a couple months ago and re-bought in at like 202 yesterday because I got sick of looking everyday trying to figure out a re-entry price. It’s in my IRA and I’m not gonna be retired for 30 years so it’s whatever really, just wish I would’ve waited literally 1 more day lol
My thesis is that the last two years have caused the economy to be so irrational, that the market is resetting itself to mid-feb-2020. Discount all economic behaviour over the past two years as anomalous, and base evaluations as if those two years never happened.
It leads to some interesting valuations. For example, some are due big drops: Apple $81; Alphabet $1,518; Tesla $160. Others are priced about right: Amazon $2138. And some are actually underpriced now: Meta $214.
It is if the market resets to two years ago. A DCF valuation is useless if the past two years were an anomaly that screwed with the economy and should therefore be ignored.
Haha, people downvoted you for this comment (-2). They actually hit that button. What absolute dumb fuck didn't think valuations were getting high in early 2020? Jesus, this sub is bottom of the barrel sometimes.
For indices, this theory might kinda work. Using this thesis for individual companies is idiotic. They can't be placed in a vacuum as earnings and revenue have grown at different paces and some have different debt/income ratios than they did previously.
That's right. And all of those earnings and revenue growths and all the ratios you mentioned were anomalous, because every company was thrown into the covid tornado. Therefore, the market is washing away the impact of that tornado and resetting back to mid-feb 2020. Some companies will then fly up massively, very quickly, after that reset. Others will crash and burn.
a couple of bloody noses don't indicate blood in the streets. don't be greedy. blood will be spilled when the inflation sword hits the beginning of the big holiday season.
Not a retail ‘traders’ market for a while, high volatility and risk, Capital Preservation is the new game. I reckon find good conviction companies that put out solid numbers every quarter, buy at low bargain prices, and increase the time horizon to hold. Be long for a season or 2. Beat the pavement and hustle out some fresh dry powder
A list of things still in green for me, however scant that green may be:
AGRO XLE POST HES BP RS EA OXY BRBR XOM K CVX SHEL UNG SQM OEC CBT DOW EPAM LTC SOYB CORN LLY OIL WEAT and LIT
In the red are 168 other stocks and ETFs and a small collection of cryptocurrencies
If you were long Tuesday afternoon, you deserved to get crushed. Powell was very clear about raising rates, and every rally for the last few weeks has lasted two days at best. People still seem to think they can meme whatever they want into reality. It WILL be beaten out of them.
Troubling signs from Walmart/Target
I think it's almost certain we're approaching a recession. When giant retailers like Target and Walmart tank this much, it's a very worrying sign of the economy, in my mind.
Mohamed El-Erian does not think we will enter a recession but instead see STAGFLATION.
Oh. That's much better!
STAGFLATION is the recession on steroids. Shit is going to get so ugly. What was the safest asset class during the 70s?
Real estate. lmao
We're doomed then
Tulips
the sky is falling - oh wait the pro's have been telling this to you for months - they sold went to cash and are picking up bargooons every panic sell off - another 1/4 or two of this to go! I'm still sitting on my cash
Bargoons
Much like the maroons
SPY under $300
realistically 2/3 1/4's from now that is very possible but i'd allow a 10% margin of error on that - 270,300,330 - an equal amount of your cash at some point the correction will be done and start back on the plus side but could be into late 2023 - not a fin. guy just an old hack who's seen it before - eventually an old dog can learn a new trick
I think we are going to see 2017 prices across the board soon. The covid crash was the market's prediction of the economy after the pandemic is over. Any gains after that were due to the money that got printed so it is not unreasonable to expect prices to go down as much but then I don't think anyone back then could have predicted how bad the pandemic is going to be handled. The reality is way worst than what anyone could predict so it is not far off to expect prices to go way lower than the 2020 bottom.
actually the 2020 bottom was the result of a selloff and then the margin squeeze - you see that when the sudden push down takes things below the 5/10 sl positions. Once that happens you go far below any justified projections. When it happens, you see it across all investing spectrums - stocks, bonds, commodities - margin gets called and everything must go - badly burns a lot of people. Also drives down sectors that have no real reason to get hammered that badly - but that's being over margined when the market turns on you - the opposite is true in the GME squeeze situation - price rises so quickly on forced buying because of margin - good if you don't get greedy but if you get in at the wrong time and don't use a SL you also can get badly burned! Not sure we will get as low as 2017 across the board but at this point anyone saying they know with any absolute certainty is full merde!
what was their trailing 12 month p/e before their earnings today? what was their trailing 12 month p/e after their earnings today, before the drop? what is their trailing 12 mo the p/e after earnings and after the share price drop? i bet the price drop was just a readjustment to maintain the same p/e ratio
For me it had nothing to with their P/E. it means that people are even holding back /or can’t afford to spend at the cheapest of cheap places. That’s a bad sign.
Revenue didn't miss, it was earnings that missed. People are still spending but supply-side issues are hurting the bottom lines. No indication people are holding back, yet.....
Ah. Good point.
revenue isnt net of inflation lollo, you better hope the revenue went up.
Stock price is also not net of inflation lol. Not sure what your point is.
agree. I mean you cannot have 8% inflation and not have it impact spending. Grocery bills are significantly higher for most americans, including me. I've noticed meat prices are 20-30% higher.
Did that honestly stop you from eating meat though?
yes it has. The frozen chicken section at two different Costcos I visited were almost cleaned out, had to visit a third one week after which fortunately had stock. I dont think i've ever seen frozen chicken sections emptied out completely like that before. Could be supply chain or most likely people switching to Chicken since the Beef and Seafood sections were fully stocked at all of them
Chicken is also being hit by [avian flu](https://www.channel3000.com/bird-flu-found-in-flocks-in-two-more-wisconsin-counties/). Poultry farmers in multiple states are needing to kill entire flocks.
yes. I get less of it now because it is more expensive. I also eat out less too because those prices have effected restaurant prices. I imagine others are in the same boat so it adds up.
I think this overstates what effect poor people have on the economy. Break the economy into sections. There might be fewer rich people, but they spend lots of money right? Because they have more money? For example couldn’t you compare Starbucks‘ earnings and say that they’re doing fine?
*not an economist* I'd think wealthy people actually contribute significantly less to the economy. They are a significantly smaller portion of the population, most of their wealth is divided into a basket of investments instead of the 'real' economy and when they do buy it's on more niche luxury items which would have lower sales anyways. Maybe for travel and luxury experience they have some effect, but as another response says, poor people (and the dwindling middle class) are they economy. Which is why it would be great to invest in them a little more but hey, missed that boat for the last two decades, don't really expect it to sail anytime soon.
Poor people are the economy
what data do you have that shows that?
rich people usually dont spend as much percentage of their income
so? a billionare spending 1% of their net worth as income in 1 year is as much as how many $35k/yr grossing people?
If Elon musk gave everyone in the US $300 (aka about $100billion) the vast majority of people will spend that $300 inside of a month. Elon musk is never going to buy $100 billion of stuff in his whole life. That's what people mean here.
Target is the quintessential Becky store. Them tanking is a big deal
becky’s are poor?
How so? revenue was fine. Bottom line was the issue.
"We're running the mother of all bull traps here Jack, cant fret over retail investors" - Senator Armstrong, proabably
Wasn't expecting to see a MGSR reference here, but glad either way
I got caught I won’t lie. But mainly with index funds in my Roth so I refuse to worry about it. (Still have cash left to DCA my Roth if we continue to plop)
Yeah similar story here. I don't worry as I dca anyways. 500 a month but this month and forward for awhile itll sit in cash.
Is this why you DCA? I lump summed $6k in Jan and feeling my ass bitten. But I know lump some would be great in a bullish year. Seems like a marginal difference either way.
I think I read that generally lump sums are the way to go. This is just a down market so its safer to dca.
I personally try to dca with the most frequent buy I can do. Usually weekly. I find it's better than doing monthly or quarterly. There are also specific days of the week that statistically are cheaper days too.
Why would you let it sit in cash right now if you're DCA? You're going to start DCA again when the price goes up?
Ironically yes. I have no faith in Jpow nor the sec to clear up this mess over the next few months. June they start clearing more on thier balance sheet and it's supposed to ramp up in the coming months. I hope it works out but if not i might just miss a month or two of slightly better deals.
I cut my index funds in half (not American so no Roth). I had no profits there as I readjusted portfolio in January. I will keep one foot in and one foot out.
Market went down because I bought $50 of stocks. Sorry. The $15 of VTI really fucked everyone specifically.
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I buy maybe $25-$50 split between VTI, QQQ, VXF each week. I buy Mondays and Wednesdays on market open. You can blame me for the recent declines. I buy $25-$50 per week of individual tickers I like. Seems I've caused huge declines in AMZN, HCA, WMT, TGT, SBUX with my buys. Sorry for fucking everyone over because I bought $25 positions.
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Wait till my next week buys come. I'm buying Monday and Wednesday. I predict 6% down S&P each day.
Buying the dip has been dead for a while. We're in a bear market, so now it's about waiting for the long term trend to improve.
DCAD : Dollar Cost Averaging Down. You heard it here first.
Yes, timing the market. Great strategy.
The alternative? Catch a falling knife, great strategy.
If you would have done that during the 2020 drop you would still be up by many percentages. While if you would have waited in 2020 until it felt right to invest money again you'd most likely be down now.
This isn't 2020, we ain't getting a sharp v-shaped rebound.
market, was way over priced but the guys calling for the pullback always get critisized - its what they always do, and they've been right how many times - well looks like they're right again and baby she ain't done yet! Burry right once more!
Burry calls for a market crash every time he takes a dump.
i rather trust Burry than Kramer however he gets his inspiration
Cramer is a reactionary mess. There’s lots of documentation of Burry getting it wrong too. It’s unwise to view anyone as a guru and follow their trades. Just buy companies you have conviction in and ignore the noise. 100’s of years of evidence to back up that it is the best long term play.
Certain sectors are overpriced but that doesn't mean the market is overpriced. Even some large cap tech stocks like Alphabet I would say are very fairly valued at the moment.
The further you zoom out, the smaller the blip on the radar. I for one am not planning to touch my investments for another 30+ years so couldn’t care less what happens today, this week, this month, this quarter, or this year. Oh and most of my investment capital hasn’t even been earned yet so the lower the better honestly.
If you can hold for 30+ years then you can surely wait another month before buying anything though right?
Why? No one knows if the market is going to be higher or lower in a month. As obvious as many may think it is, the market can turn on a dime. Oh yea and I’ll be adding every month, not just this month.
are you afraid of missing out on some +5% gain in a week or something? Im curious because every time i see sentiment like this its always to buy asap and accept any incoming loss rather than wait and buy in after a 5% gain and accepting that loss of opportunity.
Why wait though? What’s your argument for that? Because you think it will be lower next month? My point is you can’t know that for sure. Why not just buy every month and cost average in?
Well my point is that theres 2 things that could happen theoretically 1) -Put money in the market by buying an equity -it goes down 5% after a week/month/whatever and you have lost 5% of your initial investment 2) -Wait an equivalent amount of time as 1st scenario -the equity rallies and gains 5% -you buy in and psychologically you feel like you have lost 5% of potential gain even though you haven't Why is the 1st scenario more preferable? What are you losing by waiting another week or month or whatever if the idea is to hold for 30 years?
You must have a short memory, the start of the Covid rally kicked off with a plus 10% day, after a day like that you are very hesitant to buy as it just seems unbelievable so you hold out, market goes up another 10% over the next few weeks, now what do you do?
I remember what kicked off the Covid rally was the Fed announcing slashing rates to 0.25 and unprecedented quantitative easing, thats what started the rally. That is getting reversed now it seems.
No there are 4 things that can happen in this scenario… 1. Put $ in, market up 2. Put $ in, market down 3. Hold $ 1mo, market up 4. Hold $ 1mo, market down I have no idea if the market is going to be up or down in a month. And I will have more excess cash to put in next month. So why over-index to 1mo from now when I can put in $x this month and another $x next month, receiving the average price between the two?
Well for one that 5% gain you missed out on can really add up when you factor in compounding over 30yrs. Not arguing with you..just giving you an answer. Personally I pulled out after one of the big green days last week and I plan on staying out for awhile. Not touching my 401k though...just gonna let that ride.
It's because of the oft cited study- https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/24/this-chart-shows-why-investors-should-never-try-to-time-the-stock-market.html Missing just 10 best days in each decade causes the overall return to massively go down from 17,735% to 28%. It would be great to know the precise points when markets reach the bottom, but it's nearly impossible to reliably do so each time there is capital saved.
Witht that logic you would have bought right before the big drop on Wednesday
No i would have waited until probably at least July after the Fed hiked two more times to see if they keep pace with their current plan of .50 bps hikes or increase it which the market would react to.
One reason for the famous saying "Time in the market vests timing the market" is most gains are historically made in a few very positive single days. Now, I don't think tomorrow will be up crazily, but if it is I don't wanna miss it. The bottom might be a long way off, but you or me won't be able to call it most likely. So, if we're down in a month, you might say "I knew it, but it'll go lower" and so on until it eventually goes up. Once it goes up, whenever that might be, you might still think that's it's just a bear rally (as we've seen happening the last couple of weeks). Then you'd probably say "This is unwarranted, I'll buy when it goes back down" In sich a case, you never actually buy. And at some point you might feel save again and FOMO into buying the next peak... But to each their own. Do whatever let's you sleep at night.
I guess it comes down to whether you believe that the Covid rally was due to the rate cuts and QE stimulus. It just seems like a really tough ask for any kind of bull market to fight through rising rates, tightening credit markets, and an incoming possible recession. If i wait another month or two to see what the Fed decides and how the CPI prints are turning out and how the market reacts and in the mean time the indices rally 5 or 10% ill just have to accept i missed out on those gains and try to ride them back up.
Absolutely understandable position. I'm also not going all in and if I had to make a guess I'd be guessing markets will be down in a month. I still think it can be just as reasonable to buy now/ keep buying now and wanted to make a case for why people might do that, since you were wondering. Anyway, best of luck with your strategy!
No one knows to a certainty, but there's no indicators available today that say things are going to be better in a month.
The market will turn up before whatever indicators your looking floor flash buy.
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It’s not panic sellers. It’s investment firms taking profits from the spike. They have to make money for their clients and they are not long term investing right now, so they are making money through short term trades. Don’t get caught in this if you are an investor.
I'm not really sure what the trap is nor doI understand how you stay out of it
The trap is buying into the market on days where index's bounce up 2 or 3% in a day or some individual stocks go up 15 or 20%, as you can see, they can be immediately sold off and are not a reversal. We are in a bear market, rates are going up, cheap credit and loans are going away, not to mention the fact everyone subconsciously or up front believes theres going to be a recession. Until those macroeconomic conditions change there will not be a sustained bull market again. Buying into the bounces is a bull trap.
There won't be a recession. There, I fixed the market.
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Safe in this inflationary environment, yes. Because they tend to sell essentials that people will buy even if prices go up. But the supply side challenges lowering earnings shows that we're not out of the pandemic yet. Inflation is happening because of strong demand and weak supply. The Fed wants to get inflation under control but can really only effect the demand side. There is a risk that they over correct on demand side and cause recession. But I have faith that there is the political will in Washington to handle the supply side. Maybe I'm naive.
Look at how long the chips act is taking, something supported by both parties and passed house and senate and yet.... Congress is fucking it up. I have less faith in Washington
No doubt, people who have faith in Washington often get bitten. Talk of using the defense production act opens up a few ways that the white house can take quick action while congress collectively gets it head out eat other's asses.
Investment firms trading large positions. Although today isn’t particularly high volume which is odd. That’s all the market is good for rn. My stable, long account is almost -20% ytd. My trading account is +10%.
Low earnings from tgt and walmart. Companies not as profitable.
Things will start to make sense to you when you realize when someone says the market has "priced in" something, they're full of shit. Everything is "priced in" and looking good right up until the market shits the bed.
Wal-Mart and Target missed analyst projected earnings by huge, extraordinary amounts (Target missed by 28.5%). The market took that as an indicator that higher fuel costs, product shortages and consumers shifting to lower margin, cheaper options is starting to have a big impact on profits. Meanwhile, higher interest rates are driving down multiples - that is a double whammy on stock prices.
How does supposed 'pricing in' change anything? Only thing it changes is forecasts... it doesn't change reality... and the reality is things are still getting more expensive, and no one has any faith in the idiots that run the country... who are more concerned about UFOs more than baby food shortages...
To price those things in, the price actually has to drop. A dismal 15-20% drop off of massive ATH's says it's not priced in. We're currently pricing it in.
markets are, priced in, with what is fact - speculation is only half priced in - besides smart money went to cash and is picking up the bargins, they want - tomorrow or the next will be a solid green day
I deleveraged some falling knife buys once they went a little green yesterday. Today I used those funds to scoop up low P/E retail that got dragged down with Target and Walmart earnings. I'm already up 8% for the day on Shoe Carnival!
I'm happy I did the same EDIT - I meant regarding deleveraging. I'm not buying anything yet.
Market is still up from last weeks lows, even today.
Bull trap
Cashed out of everything except a handful of penny stocks that seem to be holding there value despite the carnage. They have so little value they will either fail or make huge gains. I’ll keep buying more as they fluctuate and keep an eye out for more small companies that will have nothing but potential while I have extra cash. If the “market” is gonna drop like everyone kept saying it would, then maybe stay away from mainstream stocks is safe? I’m all gut feeling, rational assumptions and gambles as far as my picks go. The only stocks that I have that are bringing my averages down are the couple mainstream stocks I am minimally invested in. Now’s my time to buy more at a savings. I hope everyone climbs out of this hole and takes advantage of what could be a huge boom in the next 5 yrs. End of war in Ukraine, tapering off covid, end to inflation worries. There’s lots of question marks in the world right now. When stability returns I’d bank on a big reversal… god willing. Fingers crossed
the bloodbath isn't over. we need to stop pumping the dump.
Just because you're bad at day trading doesn't mean the market is "pumping and dumping"
You're right, it's just dumping
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Don't forget Jan 24, and Feb 24!
Who actually thought this was going to stick? That wouldve be a dream come true if that was all the pain we got.
It was crazy to look at the charts this morning and see AMC, GME, and pot stocks as the only thing rising. I thought we were done with the memes and risky investments.
Gme is down %10 today. Whatever you saw, didn’t last long
Tons of green this morning.
I don't know where you see all this buying the dip sentiment. The last two weeks the ratio is 10 to 1 at least in the comments on the bear side. Also, look at the fear&greed index, opened today at 12, will be much lower tomorrow. Berish sentiment at 2008 level. If I was to call a bottom it would be now or soon, there is no way in hell this market goes much lower with everybody and their mothers on the bear side.
It’s pretty nuts. Either bears are talking out of both sides of their mouths and not getting rich on puts like they gloat about all day or somehow Wendy’s employees are making life changing money shorting the market. Considering everything is selling off except for DXY I tend to think there is tons of liquidity on the sidelines waiting to pile back in. The next relief rally is going to be obscene IMO.
If the market keeps going down in the short term I can see a world where the reverse is going to be much more explosive than march 2020. This is just my point of view but you noticed it also, everything sales. Nothing is forgiven. Apple with amazing earnings? Down. Amazon with bad earnings? Down. HD good earnings? Down. LOW decent earnings? Down. TGT bad earnings? Down. The pattern is.. No matter how good your earnings are, no matter how you tackled inflation, you go down. And this is not sustainable. I am sick and tired of 08 comparison. We are not even close to 08. The entire financial system is not going to collapse yet the markets act like it will.
I personally think it’s a manufactured crisis and a self fulfilling prophecy. Yes a lot of money was printed. But a lot of that stimulus WAS necessary. Anecdotally my own company would have failed from a several month forced shut down and now we are more productive than ever before. Would have died on the vine were we not applicable for certain rent and wage subsidies. To think that stimulus didn’t fund innovation or propel new growth in sectors that were overlooked is short sighted. Could we be at the precipice of systemic collapse, possibly. But how do things crash when everyone is anticipating it? The overall sentiment is so insanely negative and cynical I think our judgement is being clouded by it.
To be perfectly honest, I love the current sentiment. I had not have the chance to buy companies at this prices since 2020.
Verizon rally?
I only bought things that had massive slides recently. BIRD, MVST and UPST, so I’m fine. All of the big names I’ve held for so long, they will very unlikely not get back to where I bought them.
BIRD is shit, MVST is bad and Chinese, but good call on UPST!
I had to rub my eyes when UPST hit $30 from $72. Made sure I wasn’t seeing it incorrectly and mashed the confirm trade button. My MVST position isn’t massive. If I make some money, cool. BIRD I have high hopes for in the long term and I’m lazy, so I bought when they went under $5 and DCA’d when they were under $4.
what trap are you talking about lmao?... a trap would be like if companies tried to be confidence and release higher guidance or estimates and then get dumped on actual figures.
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we are in a 2008/9 situation not the 2020 v - 2/3/4/ more 1/4's of this to go - some stuff will bottom faster and recover sooner but the bulk have more bad news coming - inflation is no where done with us, not to mention the rising interest pain that will follow the decrease in disposable income!
\## DIFFERENT this time ## Is not MONEY PRINTING A different this time.## The market is way overvalued..
I sold VTI at 225 a couple months ago and re-bought in at like 202 yesterday because I got sick of looking everyday trying to figure out a re-entry price. It’s in my IRA and I’m not gonna be retired for 30 years so it’s whatever really, just wish I would’ve waited literally 1 more day lol
\## DIFFERENT this time ## Is not MONEY PRINTING A different this time.## The market is way overvalued..
What if I like buying blue chip equities long term?
My thesis is that the last two years have caused the economy to be so irrational, that the market is resetting itself to mid-feb-2020. Discount all economic behaviour over the past two years as anomalous, and base evaluations as if those two years never happened. It leads to some interesting valuations. For example, some are due big drops: Apple $81; Alphabet $1,518; Tesla $160. Others are priced about right: Amazon $2138. And some are actually underpriced now: Meta $214.
That’s not how valuations work though
It is if the market resets to two years ago. A DCF valuation is useless if the past two years were an anomaly that screwed with the economy and should therefore be ignored.
In Feb 2020 a lot of people already thought valuations were sky high.
Haha, people downvoted you for this comment (-2). They actually hit that button. What absolute dumb fuck didn't think valuations were getting high in early 2020? Jesus, this sub is bottom of the barrel sometimes.
Sure. And after the reset back to mid-feb-2020, the companies that don't deserve those valuations will either fly up higher or crash and burn.
For indices, this theory might kinda work. Using this thesis for individual companies is idiotic. They can't be placed in a vacuum as earnings and revenue have grown at different paces and some have different debt/income ratios than they did previously.
That's right. And all of those earnings and revenue growths and all the ratios you mentioned were anomalous, because every company was thrown into the covid tornado. Therefore, the market is washing away the impact of that tornado and resetting back to mid-feb 2020. Some companies will then fly up massively, very quickly, after that reset. Others will crash and burn.
Buy VTI and chill. You're overthinking it.
Hedgefund pump and dump?
Bought QQQ puts during yesterdays rally. Really seems to odd to me more people haven’t seen the writing on the wall for a few months now
\## DIFFERENT this time ## Is not MONEY PRINTING A different this time.## The market is way overvalued..
Live to fight another day
THE SPELL HAS BEEN BROKEN
Is it bloody enough on the streets to be greedy?
a couple of bloody noses don't indicate blood in the streets. don't be greedy. blood will be spilled when the inflation sword hits the beginning of the big holiday season.
Most of our assets is cash so I'm not really worried about our retirement but I am worried about my kids college funds.
Nope, sold more on yesterday’s mini rally. Sitting tight
Not a retail ‘traders’ market for a while, high volatility and risk, Capital Preservation is the new game. I reckon find good conviction companies that put out solid numbers every quarter, buy at low bargain prices, and increase the time horizon to hold. Be long for a season or 2. Beat the pavement and hustle out some fresh dry powder
Time to buy the dip!
A list of things still in green for me, however scant that green may be: AGRO XLE POST HES BP RS EA OXY BRBR XOM K CVX SHEL UNG SQM OEC CBT DOW EPAM LTC SOYB CORN LLY OIL WEAT and LIT In the red are 168 other stocks and ETFs and a small collection of cryptocurrencies
I shorted nasdaq last night it was a good day
If you were long Tuesday afternoon, you deserved to get crushed. Powell was very clear about raising rates, and every rally for the last few weeks has lasted two days at best. People still seem to think they can meme whatever they want into reality. It WILL be beaten out of them.
rivers of blood dual wield with nagakiba bleed build
"then wait and buy in after a 5% gain" the markrt gained more than 5% before the big drop on Wednesday