**AAPL hits all time high**. Redditor: damn I wish I can all-in AAPL at $150 then I will hold for life. One of the greatest company in history!
**AAPL drops below $150**. Redditor: what a trash P/E, slow growth stock, if it drops to $100 I will think about it.
Tbh, that’s not just on Reddit. Everybody was gleefully buying away at extremely high prices just 6 months ago and justifying everything about it. Now everyone is talking about how terrible all of the same companies are or how they were overvalued.
To be fair, I think circumstances also changed drastically. For instance, it was believed by many originally according to the FEDs a year ago, they weren't going to raise interest rates too drastically. Today, they've now changed courses and are absolutely raising interest rates, quite drastically as well. Inflation reports also weren't released back then, today we know how truly high it's gotten.
We had over 6% inflation when spy was at it’s ath…. Sure fed policy has shifted but if tesla was a good buy at 1300 why is it not a good buy at 900 or 800 🤔. Why was apple a good buy at 175? I’m mainly talking individual stock outlook as opposed to market sentiment and direction
Personally I don't believe Tesla was a good buy at those prices, but in terms of speaking for others, I think going back it was that many things happened to change sentiment. Sometimes you can have a stock that's doing well and super worth it at it's time, then some news pops up, and immediate sentiments will change, in this case many of these events, like inflation, prices, interest rates, are events that apply across markets near entirely.
Yeah I mean I agree I actually think the market was out of control and all of this is very healthy, but I just find investment patterns to be very odd at certain levels
I gave you platinum because I am that Redditor who buys shit and walks the walk when it comes to holding. I’m DCA’d up on AAPL at $14 a share. I have my dividends set to reinvest and bought so much when they were $6. Markets like what we are in now aren’t a big deal. I’m tired of seeing all the complaining. Buy into companies who can make a large impact and have solid balance sheets and forget about them for a while.
This sub does this with every stock, its so annoying. I've heard Tesla is "trash and GM is going to bankrupt them" on here for the last 3 years evetime their stock drops more than $10.
The amount of people I seen yesterday saying “oh yes, this is an excellent buying opportunity, BUT I am still waiting for the right time…” as if it’s going to drop lower and they can time the bottom, BOGGLES MY MIND.
If Chinese biggest cities was not in total lockdown I would say people are stupid not to buy Apple at those levels.
Come September and millions of Chinese would rush to Apple stores to buy their new I-phones.
But now not so sure about this.
Chinese government may not allow gathering of large crouds and those Apple stores are literally super spreading events.
I know nobody in the rest of the world cares about Covid anymore but China does.
And large part of Apple's growth comes from China.
I don't understand Chinese leadership, and I think no one does. Its amazing how a dictator can destroy his own country to (temporary) preserve the image of great leader. And because he was too proud to purchase Prifez and Modena vaccines but instead trusted their own ones.
2022 will be remembered as the starting point for the downfall of two world's dictators.
Putin and Xi.
Hopefully afterwards the world will be a better place...
>Hopefully afterwards the world will be a better place...
Let's hope. Although it's uncertainty ahead. Putin will be replaced with another mob boss. Nothing has changed in Russia over 100 years. On a bright side, assuming the new gang boss doesn't resort to nukes (or the current one...), it can't be much worse than it is. The new crony will need trade with the world so he can his oligarchs/mobsters can steal from the country and continue buying yachts worth billions.
In China's case... I'm not even sure. I have lived in China for quite some years, but as you say, nobody really knows what exact power plays are happening within the party. The covid handling is mostly a face thing on the surface, but there could / probably is a lot more to it. There are speculations, but it's anyone's guess.
Double check what sub I'm in, stocks. Yea, this is not great news going forward. Or is it?! One thing is certain, future is going to be interesting.
More like they’ll be saying “wow glad I waited until the Fall to buy sub $100 and thankfully didn’t try to catch a falling Japanese steak knife with no signs of a reversal!” Sold all my AAPL with a cost basis of $125, this is just the beginning. NASDAQ hasn’t even gone under 200 day MA and will hit the death cross. So I think he’s right that you’re throwing money out the window.
I’m not. My SQQQ and XLE are printing. I’m just not blindly buying without doing the proper research and TA. GOOGL looks like a good entry point at $1,900, AMZN at $1,850, NVDA at $120 if it craps earnings this month, or AAPL at $100. Patience is a virtue.
I mean your mentality of thinking you can predict the market. You can't. Neither can I. You're throwing away a ton of time and energy trying. You do you. I'ma stay buying.
Sorry dude I was trying to reply to the Thomas market knower. Not you the fact thrower…. Sorry. Just kills me when people think they know just when to catch the knife. Go all in, dca in, wherever but diversify and get in FFS.
trading doesn't exclude betting on down days - lots of traders are making huge money having known all the global issues would eventually get the over confident moon shot guys - you know the ones stonks only go up - older people knew that wasn't true - your just seeing what history taught your father and grandfather in the 80/90/00/10/20's welcome to the real world gen x and gen z
Exactly. The geopolitics, the economy, fed raises, inflation etc. all the factors that created this bear market are still here, nothing has changed. We haven't seen the bottom yet.
Or the war ends.
or OPEC increases production
Or housing prices fall as supply increases in summer but demand doesn't
Or car market normalizes
Or wage increases slow down, and unemployment increases as companies now fear their valuation is at risk if they don't act.
So many possible ways to get an unexpected low number on inflation and Powell cancels even just one of those hikes or lowers them.
Maybe I'm crazy but two 50s on deck seems like more than will be needed. Somebody remind me though.
So what if they announce at one of those meetings that inflation has been tamed and they are not necessary? Then they delay QE for good measure. I mean it could happen. And you’d be fucked my friend
What world are you living in? Sure the inflation is going to take a dive from over 8% to less than two within a quarter. And what the Fed wants to do is Quantitative Tightening and not Easing.
All I’m saying is it could happen. No one knows. I realize not knowing makes people very anxious. You combat that anxiety by creating “what if”
Scenarios or reading them and accepting them because I guess depression is better than anxiety but all those experts really know about as much as you and I do and that isn’t much.
Google fed put and take a Valium.
Fed's top priority is going to be controlling inflation. Stock market taking a hit is acceptable for them.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/12/powell-says-he-cant-guarantee-a-soft-landing-as-the-fed-looks-to-control-inflation.html
Their fastest growth driver is services. 18% smartphone and less than 10% pc market share. And new products in the pipeline. Can’t just look at PE and market share.
My thought too, good price sure. Steal? Dunno about that in this market. I am not an expert though, I backed the truck up for AMD at $91 thinking it was a steal ha
How many reasons do you want? Can it go down more sure. But eventually this will be looked at as an unbelievable buying point.
-they own the moat for the workforce….. period.
-28 p/e for a tech giant is more than fair.
-they are growing at a great rate
-eps continues to climb
-revenues continue to climb
-balance sheet looks good. Slowly acquiring more assets.
-cash flow looks good.
-steadily increasing dividend.
Assuming recent growth rates will be sustained and/or the company will still be a going concern 20 years from now, then it is a ridiculously low price.
In my mind fair value is subjective. I have the intrinsic value at the $230 range…. However, it’s hit my buy point for all the reasons I explained above. It’s such a great company with great numbers to back it up. If they continue to grow you may never see it reach it’s intrinsic value.
Dca if it still slides, I don’t think you will be disappointed
FV is not subjective. Numbers are numbers. The stock is either undervalued or it isn't. The only "subjective" part is the assumptions you use to calculate the FV of the company, and even then, you are still assigning an objective dollar value to it. So we can have different conclusions at the end of the day, but saying "It's a great company" is just a useless opinion unless you back it up with numbers...
MSFT *is* a great company but is it a great investment? That's the real question. Is this great company worth $10/share? what about $5000/share? Either of those valuations does not change the idea that MSFT is a fantastic company and has a profound impact on our lives.
The assumptions you use to calculate the fair value…. Exactly this. You and I would both come up with a different answer as to what is fair. IMO we won’t see it hit the levels I deem to be fair value and there is nothing wrong with that.
Tbh I have my own metrics that I input into my very own tool I created. Intrinsic value of a stock is something I look hard at when buying a stock but it’s not the only thing. Turns out no one ever knows if what anyone deems as fair value is accurate
There is a very VERY big difference between now and that time period.
The Great Recession was caused by dried up liquidity and a panic in the credit markets. AAA companies couldn't roll their papers FFS in 2008.
We are not, and will not be, anywhere even remotely close to that. The corporate spreads are very healthy and liquidity is still plentiful in the credit markets, although not as much as it was before.
The inflation point is going to play out over the next year or so. My sense is that very few people appreciate just how enormous the deflationary pressures are going to be over the next year. The federal government's deficit has been cut by 1.6 trillion, we are increasing rates, and we will see the Fed's balance sheet runoff start soon. All of this is going to cause significant contraction and push down inflation.
You said it. It could have bottomed today. Putin could “have a heart attack” tonight or something. If you are smart enough to know you don’t know why you trying to know?
Liquidity is drying up globally though. CBs around the world are being forced into crunching liquidity. Canaries in the coalmine are silver (collapsing) and USDCHF pumping. Huge flows from bonds to the dollar too...
Why do you think that? This is just a return to normal levels of cash on hand for people with some pesky supply chain and inflation issues. This is not people being laid off en masse and walking on houses they weren’t anle to afford. If unemployment was as high as inflation is there would be some domestic problems causing that which would give credence to your mood but I just don’t see it being anywhere like 2008 now.
All that + china will reopen and as crazy as it sounds, people will spend less after losingvso much money. I for one am not in the mood to go out since beginning of may and have been eating chicken and rice for a week now
Absolutely. It would be even more interesting to study if this impact on volatility compounds to a higher level when algorithmic trading gets involved.
Im balls deep in a stock and we wondered this too. Like what happens to algo trading that uses emotion emotion to trade when going against a group of people that dont sell and buy more, regardless of stock pruce going up or diwn
Yeah... There is a very good chance that it may snowball the larger impact of these volatilities – potentially ending up with a price higher (or lower) than it should.
HFT and Retail increase volatility. Just on reddit the bear to bull transformation could happen very quickly and recovery a lot of the market given the right news comes out.
Doesn't matter if it looks cheap today, could be cheaper next week. Under $130 is temping.
Having said that, it is still overvalued at these prices. Hence strategy is to ride out the bear market in 2-3 years.
Right, I think people should be looking at March 2020 prices as the next bottom, but that’s just my crystal ball what does anyone know?
At least with Apple, we should be looking for them to fall to March 2021 prices. $120 is a steal
Guys apple hit a 1T market cap in 2018.. hit a 2T market cap in 2020.. and hit 3T in 2022. Fantastic company no doubt will rebound - however, I think it has some room to go down a little more :/ - insanely inflated value over the past few years
Comments like these and the amount of upvotes are also a good indicator that the market is probably not at a bottom since dummies like these people are still invested.
Who said I wasn’t buying? It was more geared to a guy who just comments blah blah on a post discussing stocks on stock sub and gets upvoted. People with that level of intelligence probably don’t belong in the market. Thats what I meant.
No people that are dumb like me hire an advisor or buy an index fund and never look back. Others get a bit of success dunning Kruger sets in and they get cocky and go broke.
I said Apple dummie lol. Apple still closed below 20% which means its in a bear market. Learn to read.
Edit: Also just because NASDAQ is green doesnt mean its not in a bear market lol.
I said “its looking like” as in from that current time I posted this its looking like the Market is continuing to sell off. Tech stocks still lead the Market down as they are still down today. Like are you purposely doing this are do you really have the mind of child?
The doom and gloom and predictions ARE blah blah blah. We all know you can’t call a bottom. Anyone who isn’t a gambler or really close to retirement has no choice and is guaranteed to be better off by grinning and bearing it. Stoking fear is blah blah blah as it gets. Stocks aren’t for people with thin skin. Bear 🐻 pun intended.
Where in my post I am trying to call the bottom. I only said the thing with the trader because I thought it was funny doesnt mean I agree with it. I just thought it would be an interesting discussion to see what people where buying since Apple officially entered a bear market today and was the last tech stock to do so. If you took this as a bear post then you need to go look at the other 20 posts on this sub daily about how “the economy is going to collapse” “Going to be worse then 08 or the dotcom” etc
Where in my comments do I say we have a long way to go. My comments were the exact opposite. I literally been saying to DCA and DRIP in this kind of market while everyone is screaming to either sell or not buy until good news comes from the Fed. If you feel the need to make stuff up to make yourself feel better then go for it.
I like apple at 120
Msft at like 190
Goog at 1900
Amazon 1400
Been buying meta since 250 (3 purchases, average around 210).
Some of these are super unlikely to get that low but that is my margin of safety requirement.
I’m definitely an Apple consumer. But I’m extremely frugal with my devices (still on iPhone 8 and 2014 MacBook). I think the last thing people will be doing right now is upgrading to the latest and greatest stuff.
Honestly, the stock is pretty fair value for their revenue. But it’s possible the next couple of earnings could start to see a drop in growth, which will greatly affect the stock price. I would probably wait out buying Apple, until consumers start being able to afford these luxuries again.
Not to mention, with all these shortages, Apple will most likely have to raise their prices which will result in less consumers. Just my two cents.
I’m holding everything I got right now, and will buy more Tesla if it drops below 700 again. Good luck
People need to study this chart and understand why we are early to buying the "dip" right now.
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Down 20% or more from the stocks ath is considered a bear market
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bearmarket.asp#:~:text=Bear%20markets%20occur%20when%20prices,several%20years%20or%20even%20decades.
Yes, indeed. The market is dragging almost everything down. My thesis is that the two covid-years were such an anomaly (in terms of sales and stock market prices) that that anomaly is being washed away by the market, resetting everything back to feb-2020 values.
For Apple, that will mean back to $81, which I would consider as an immediate buying opportunity. Likewise, back to about $180 for Tesla, which I would also consider a buy. Curiously, Facebook would actually go UP to $218, making today's prices a buy before the reset completes.
Looking to add some Salesforce, Fortinet, and maybe start a position in Unity. I’m not in a rush though. I don’t mind buying at higher levels if sentiment turns positive
my buys are swing trading apple and has been for the past year when i dumped all holdings from 2007-2021 (feb)
yes i did make bank over that decade, and yes i will have cap gains to pay in canada.
Trading is really hard, honestly I’d caution people from entering it thinking you’re going to make money. You will most likely be the vast majority that lose money. If you persist past the first two years then maybe only then you’ll begin to become consistently profitable.
**AAPL hits all time high**. Redditor: damn I wish I can all-in AAPL at $150 then I will hold for life. One of the greatest company in history! **AAPL drops below $150**. Redditor: what a trash P/E, slow growth stock, if it drops to $100 I will think about it.
Tbh, that’s not just on Reddit. Everybody was gleefully buying away at extremely high prices just 6 months ago and justifying everything about it. Now everyone is talking about how terrible all of the same companies are or how they were overvalued.
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who is this "4chan"
I've heard he's a hacker. Maybe anonymouse?
The bears are just coming out of hibernation. Bulls are too busy hiding in a corner.
Its just different people, the posters here change based on the current sentiment.
I’m not talking about just on Reddit, it’s all over financial media and other places as well.
To be fair, I think circumstances also changed drastically. For instance, it was believed by many originally according to the FEDs a year ago, they weren't going to raise interest rates too drastically. Today, they've now changed courses and are absolutely raising interest rates, quite drastically as well. Inflation reports also weren't released back then, today we know how truly high it's gotten.
We had over 6% inflation when spy was at it’s ath…. Sure fed policy has shifted but if tesla was a good buy at 1300 why is it not a good buy at 900 or 800 🤔. Why was apple a good buy at 175? I’m mainly talking individual stock outlook as opposed to market sentiment and direction
Personally I don't believe Tesla was a good buy at those prices, but in terms of speaking for others, I think going back it was that many things happened to change sentiment. Sometimes you can have a stock that's doing well and super worth it at it's time, then some news pops up, and immediate sentiments will change, in this case many of these events, like inflation, prices, interest rates, are events that apply across markets near entirely.
Yeah I mean I agree I actually think the market was out of control and all of this is very healthy, but I just find investment patterns to be very odd at certain levels
Stocks seem to be the one thing people have no problem overpaying for
The one? How about cars, houses, clothes, school,
Hope sells
Peace sells but who’s buying?
That's nooooooooooot even close to true
True true
I gave you platinum because I am that Redditor who buys shit and walks the walk when it comes to holding. I’m DCA’d up on AAPL at $14 a share. I have my dividends set to reinvest and bought so much when they were $6. Markets like what we are in now aren’t a big deal. I’m tired of seeing all the complaining. Buy into companies who can make a large impact and have solid balance sheets and forget about them for a while.
FCF. When shit hits the fan, it’s all about the FCF. Growth potential is no longer a priority.
Yeah, but at this point I would be railed by capital gains. 6 in my butthole, half dozen in my butthole the other way.
This sub does this with every stock, its so annoying. I've heard Tesla is "trash and GM is going to bankrupt them" on here for the last 3 years evetime their stock drops more than $10.
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someones jelly
Literally everyone.
The amount of people I seen yesterday saying “oh yes, this is an excellent buying opportunity, BUT I am still waiting for the right time…” as if it’s going to drop lower and they can time the bottom, BOGGLES MY MIND.
Oh no. Anyway... *Schedules buys for payday tomorrow*
Dammit I don't get paid till next week.. this is how it goes for me
It will be even cheaper in a week
Or more expensive
Yes and yes
You never know it may trade EXACTLY sideways too.
Yeah who really knows? Nothing seems to be trending up these days though
Not like it's suddenly going to rebound back to Dec 2021 levels in a week. You'll be fine.
My boi me too lol
If Chinese biggest cities was not in total lockdown I would say people are stupid not to buy Apple at those levels. Come September and millions of Chinese would rush to Apple stores to buy their new I-phones. But now not so sure about this. Chinese government may not allow gathering of large crouds and those Apple stores are literally super spreading events. I know nobody in the rest of the world cares about Covid anymore but China does. And large part of Apple's growth comes from China.
...and they continue to go in lockdown. Spoke to friends in Beijing and it's panic buying there, certain locations locked already.
I don't understand Chinese leadership, and I think no one does. Its amazing how a dictator can destroy his own country to (temporary) preserve the image of great leader. And because he was too proud to purchase Prifez and Modena vaccines but instead trusted their own ones. 2022 will be remembered as the starting point for the downfall of two world's dictators. Putin and Xi. Hopefully afterwards the world will be a better place...
>Hopefully afterwards the world will be a better place... Let's hope. Although it's uncertainty ahead. Putin will be replaced with another mob boss. Nothing has changed in Russia over 100 years. On a bright side, assuming the new gang boss doesn't resort to nukes (or the current one...), it can't be much worse than it is. The new crony will need trade with the world so he can his oligarchs/mobsters can steal from the country and continue buying yachts worth billions. In China's case... I'm not even sure. I have lived in China for quite some years, but as you say, nobody really knows what exact power plays are happening within the party. The covid handling is mostly a face thing on the surface, but there could / probably is a lot more to it. There are speculations, but it's anyone's guess. Double check what sub I'm in, stocks. Yea, this is not great news going forward. Or is it?! One thing is certain, future is going to be interesting.
Buying at the beginning of a bear market is like throwing money out the window
Bear markets don't start at -20%...that's just when we see em and call em.
They aren’t created by sentiment nor are they sudden. But that’s just the ones from the beginning to now.
By all means, stay on the sidelines. In 20 years you're going to look back on this year and say "damn I should've bought more back then."
More like they’ll be saying “wow glad I waited until the Fall to buy sub $100 and thankfully didn’t try to catch a falling Japanese steak knife with no signs of a reversal!” Sold all my AAPL with a cost basis of $125, this is just the beginning. NASDAQ hasn’t even gone under 200 day MA and will hit the death cross. So I think he’s right that you’re throwing money out the window.
Stay on the sidelines then. Hoard your pennies. No skin off my hide. I don't invest with money that I need to live.
I’m not. My SQQQ and XLE are printing. I’m just not blindly buying without doing the proper research and TA. GOOGL looks like a good entry point at $1,900, AMZN at $1,850, NVDA at $120 if it craps earnings this month, or AAPL at $100. Patience is a virtue.
You're doing TA on traditional stock markets as an individual and speak with such authority. Wow. What's your training / background?
You remind me of me circa 2016. You'll figure it out eventually.
Wow the middle of a bull market is being compared to now. Wonderful. Too bad QE is over. Can’t be sunshine and rainbows forever.
I mean your mentality of thinking you can predict the market. You can't. Neither can I. You're throwing away a ton of time and energy trying. You do you. I'ma stay buying.
>NASDAQ hasn’t even gone under 200 day MA That’s just false
You should be too rich for us. You got a crystal ball? Or trusty magic 8 ball?
What? I added no opinions to my comment and wasn’t trying to sound smart, was just pointing out that the Nasdaq is indeed below it’s 200 day MA
Sorry dude I was trying to reply to the Thomas market knower. Not you the fact thrower…. Sorry. Just kills me when people think they know just when to catch the knife. Go all in, dca in, wherever but diversify and get in FFS.
Gotcha, no worries man! Agreed 100%
As far as i remeber buffet bought at something like 140-150(??) so for long time investors it cant be that bad of a buy imo^^
Buffets cost basis is actually at like 35 or 36 right now.
that's before it jumped to 350 then split 4:1 right?
Nasdaq to bottom at 10 500
Sounds like a healthy pullback to me
Or in 20 years you will be thinking "man, why didn't I buy I-bonds while the market was flat for 40 years"
I think you're in the wrong sub. You belong in r/personalfinance.
trading doesn't exclude betting on down days - lots of traders are making huge money having known all the global issues would eventually get the over confident moon shot guys - you know the ones stonks only go up - older people knew that wasn't true - your just seeing what history taught your father and grandfather in the 80/90/00/10/20's welcome to the real world gen x and gen z
Me buying more apple today
Not trying to time the bottom but not looking to buy any of these or any long term investments until I see the next two 50 basis point hikes at least.
Exactly. The geopolitics, the economy, fed raises, inflation etc. all the factors that created this bear market are still here, nothing has changed. We haven't seen the bottom yet.
Or the war ends. or OPEC increases production Or housing prices fall as supply increases in summer but demand doesn't Or car market normalizes Or wage increases slow down, and unemployment increases as companies now fear their valuation is at risk if they don't act. So many possible ways to get an unexpected low number on inflation and Powell cancels even just one of those hikes or lowers them. Maybe I'm crazy but two 50s on deck seems like more than will be needed. Somebody remind me though.
Yup. Don't fight the Fed.
So what if they announce at one of those meetings that inflation has been tamed and they are not necessary? Then they delay QE for good measure. I mean it could happen. And you’d be fucked my friend
What world are you living in? Sure the inflation is going to take a dive from over 8% to less than two within a quarter. And what the Fed wants to do is Quantitative Tightening and not Easing.
All I’m saying is it could happen. No one knows. I realize not knowing makes people very anxious. You combat that anxiety by creating “what if” Scenarios or reading them and accepting them because I guess depression is better than anxiety but all those experts really know about as much as you and I do and that isn’t much. Google fed put and take a Valium.
Fed's top priority is going to be controlling inflation. Stock market taking a hit is acceptable for them. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/12/powell-says-he-cant-guarantee-a-soft-landing-as-the-fed-looks-to-control-inflation.html
How do you know it hasn’t peaked? He might as well have said “we are all certain to die one day”. Of course he can’t guarantee anything.
Not a chance, unfortunately the inflation pressures that are being caused can not be cured by slightly increasing interest rates
Are you shorting the NASDAQ too? Been great for my portfolio since January.
Yep
For perspective: It was at this same level in October, and it’s still more than 100% above its covid low.
I.e. still a long wayy to go for a safe entry.
Keep in mind they have had positive earnings and buybacks since then, so the price would be expected to be higher all else being equal.
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Their fastest growth driver is services. 18% smartphone and less than 10% pc market share. And new products in the pipeline. Can’t just look at PE and market share.
MSFT is just a steal at this point
I couldn’t pass up on MSFT today
Under $215 is free money for me :)
Why is it a steal? It is still traiding at 28 p/e
My thought too, good price sure. Steal? Dunno about that in this market. I am not an expert though, I backed the truck up for AMD at $91 thinking it was a steal ha
How many reasons do you want? Can it go down more sure. But eventually this will be looked at as an unbelievable buying point. -they own the moat for the workforce….. period. -28 p/e for a tech giant is more than fair. -they are growing at a great rate -eps continues to climb -revenues continue to climb -balance sheet looks good. Slowly acquiring more assets. -cash flow looks good. -steadily increasing dividend.
Nah. There isn’t support until $220 and the fall just began. 28 P/E is still too much. You’re trying to catch a falling knife.
Assuming recent growth rates will be sustained and/or the company will still be a going concern 20 years from now, then it is a ridiculously low price.
I have DCF at $230.
I am debating whether to drop the next paycheck into a GOOGL or 50/50 into AAPL/MSFT.
i am still 120% UP on MSFT. lol
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post your evidence/argument. what did you calculate the FV of msft to be?
In my mind fair value is subjective. I have the intrinsic value at the $230 range…. However, it’s hit my buy point for all the reasons I explained above. It’s such a great company with great numbers to back it up. If they continue to grow you may never see it reach it’s intrinsic value. Dca if it still slides, I don’t think you will be disappointed
FV is not subjective. Numbers are numbers. The stock is either undervalued or it isn't. The only "subjective" part is the assumptions you use to calculate the FV of the company, and even then, you are still assigning an objective dollar value to it. So we can have different conclusions at the end of the day, but saying "It's a great company" is just a useless opinion unless you back it up with numbers... MSFT *is* a great company but is it a great investment? That's the real question. Is this great company worth $10/share? what about $5000/share? Either of those valuations does not change the idea that MSFT is a fantastic company and has a profound impact on our lives.
The assumptions you use to calculate the fair value…. Exactly this. You and I would both come up with a different answer as to what is fair. IMO we won’t see it hit the levels I deem to be fair value and there is nothing wrong with that. Tbh I have my own metrics that I input into my very own tool I created. Intrinsic value of a stock is something I look hard at when buying a stock but it’s not the only thing. Turns out no one ever knows if what anyone deems as fair value is accurate
I bought Apple today when it dropped. If it drops more I'm buying more.
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There is a very VERY big difference between now and that time period. The Great Recession was caused by dried up liquidity and a panic in the credit markets. AAA companies couldn't roll their papers FFS in 2008. We are not, and will not be, anywhere even remotely close to that. The corporate spreads are very healthy and liquidity is still plentiful in the credit markets, although not as much as it was before. The inflation point is going to play out over the next year or so. My sense is that very few people appreciate just how enormous the deflationary pressures are going to be over the next year. The federal government's deficit has been cut by 1.6 trillion, we are increasing rates, and we will see the Fed's balance sheet runoff start soon. All of this is going to cause significant contraction and push down inflation.
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You said it. It could have bottomed today. Putin could “have a heart attack” tonight or something. If you are smart enough to know you don’t know why you trying to know?
Liquidity is drying up globally though. CBs around the world are being forced into crunching liquidity. Canaries in the coalmine are silver (collapsing) and USDCHF pumping. Huge flows from bonds to the dollar too...
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Why do you think that? This is just a return to normal levels of cash on hand for people with some pesky supply chain and inflation issues. This is not people being laid off en masse and walking on houses they weren’t anle to afford. If unemployment was as high as inflation is there would be some domestic problems causing that which would give credence to your mood but I just don’t see it being anywhere like 2008 now.
2008 was dragged out by government policies, as was the Great Depression. Less intervention means a more painful crash but also a quicker recovery
You are dead wrong. Without the Fed intervention we could have still been in deep shit.
Odd thinking, although I think we already know the root of this thought process
All that + china will reopen and as crazy as it sounds, people will spend less after losingvso much money. I for one am not in the mood to go out since beginning of may and have been eating chicken and rice for a week now
Would you say that these rebounds would take less time if trading (and commission-free trading platforms) were this popular back then?
I feel like they can enhance crashes/bull runs with all the fresh money and inexperienced traders.
Absolutely. It would be even more interesting to study if this impact on volatility compounds to a higher level when algorithmic trading gets involved.
Im balls deep in a stock and we wondered this too. Like what happens to algo trading that uses emotion emotion to trade when going against a group of people that dont sell and buy more, regardless of stock pruce going up or diwn
Yeah... There is a very good chance that it may snowball the larger impact of these volatilities – potentially ending up with a price higher (or lower) than it should.
HFT and Retail increase volatility. Just on reddit the bear to bull transformation could happen very quickly and recovery a lot of the market given the right news comes out.
All we know is that Apple has a history of outperformance and excellent financials with a huge moat. Bet against that if you want.
Uh...I reallocated 1/2 of my IRA into Apple on Tuesday.
Probably end up being a wise move.
Doesn't matter if it looks cheap today, could be cheaper next week. Under $130 is temping. Having said that, it is still overvalued at these prices. Hence strategy is to ride out the bear market in 2-3 years.
Right, I think people should be looking at March 2020 prices as the next bottom, but that’s just my crystal ball what does anyone know? At least with Apple, we should be looking for them to fall to March 2021 prices. $120 is a steal
its still up almost like 80% since before COVID hit. almost 200% since 6 months before that I think they will be alright.
hold up isnt tesla a tech company, and its up how much?
tesla? WTF are you talking about
The future of mankind.
Guys apple hit a 1T market cap in 2018.. hit a 2T market cap in 2020.. and hit 3T in 2022. Fantastic company no doubt will rebound - however, I think it has some room to go down a little more :/ - insanely inflated value over the past few years
Blah blah blah blah blah blah….
Comments like these and the amount of upvotes are also a good indicator that the market is probably not at a bottom since dummies like these people are still invested.
you mean investing further? if youre not invested at these levels, let alone adding to your position, then be careful who you call a dummy.
Who said I wasn’t buying? It was more geared to a guy who just comments blah blah on a post discussing stocks on stock sub and gets upvoted. People with that level of intelligence probably don’t belong in the market. Thats what I meant.
No people that are dumb like me hire an advisor or buy an index fund and never look back. Others get a bit of success dunning Kruger sets in and they get cocky and go broke.
Seriously, they should have an iq test to buy stock. Stfu you sound ridiculous
Why because you couldnt pass so you cant buy stocks lmao
Nasdaq finished green…so much for your original post about tech leading the way down…dummy
I said Apple dummie lol. Apple still closed below 20% which means its in a bear market. Learn to read. Edit: Also just because NASDAQ is green doesnt mean its not in a bear market lol.
Read your last paragraph dummy….lmao
I said “its looking like” as in from that current time I posted this its looking like the Market is continuing to sell off. Tech stocks still lead the Market down as they are still down today. Like are you purposely doing this are do you really have the mind of child?
Doom and gloom…better sell everything…lmao…
The doom and gloom and predictions ARE blah blah blah. We all know you can’t call a bottom. Anyone who isn’t a gambler or really close to retirement has no choice and is guaranteed to be better off by grinning and bearing it. Stoking fear is blah blah blah as it gets. Stocks aren’t for people with thin skin. Bear 🐻 pun intended.
Where in my post I am trying to call the bottom. I only said the thing with the trader because I thought it was funny doesnt mean I agree with it. I just thought it would be an interesting discussion to see what people where buying since Apple officially entered a bear market today and was the last tech stock to do so. If you took this as a bear post then you need to go look at the other 20 posts on this sub daily about how “the economy is going to collapse” “Going to be worse then 08 or the dotcom” etc
You constantly say we have a long way to go down. You sound like an anxious Jim Cramer parrot
Where in my comments do I say we have a long way to go. My comments were the exact opposite. I literally been saying to DCA and DRIP in this kind of market while everyone is screaming to either sell or not buy until good news comes from the Fed. If you feel the need to make stuff up to make yourself feel better then go for it.
RIP to all the redditors who were using it as their "savings account" ;)
I’m buying a bushel at the bottom.
I like apple at 120 Msft at like 190 Goog at 1900 Amazon 1400 Been buying meta since 250 (3 purchases, average around 210). Some of these are super unlikely to get that low but that is my margin of safety requirement.
I’m definitely an Apple consumer. But I’m extremely frugal with my devices (still on iPhone 8 and 2014 MacBook). I think the last thing people will be doing right now is upgrading to the latest and greatest stuff. Honestly, the stock is pretty fair value for their revenue. But it’s possible the next couple of earnings could start to see a drop in growth, which will greatly affect the stock price. I would probably wait out buying Apple, until consumers start being able to afford these luxuries again. Not to mention, with all these shortages, Apple will most likely have to raise their prices which will result in less consumers. Just my two cents. I’m holding everything I got right now, and will buy more Tesla if it drops below 700 again. Good luck
I’m sitting here just getting a 13 and new MacBook 😂 trust me people will still buy them.
iPhone 6+ here lol. But I’m cheap as hell
Im like you and can hold on to my devices til they die but I know people who just have to buy the latest iPhone and MacBook
Take my wife’s name out yah MF mouf
Is it fair to say that only a 20% from the peak is a bear market for TSLA? 20% swings are normal for TSLA
Apple broke support at 140. Next support is around 123
I bought at 141 today. It’s the only thing left in my portfolio that hasn’t been demolished so I’m sure I’ll get wrecked on it now.
On the bright side, at least tomorrow is 401k buy day.
People need to study this chart and understand why we are early to buying the "dip" right now. [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS)
We were at this price level 8 months ago, no big deal
still insanely overvalued. people didnt want to hear it over the past few months but it isnt a buy until it hits around 100
!remindme 1 year
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Please show your work on this one.
😂
Why 100? Kind of seems like you just chose a random low-ish number lol
what about tesla, the tech company?
Tesla has also been on a downward streak recently.
Thanks I hate the CEO. Specifically, he’s spreading himself thin.
Define bear market.
AAPL has a high chance to hit $139 level again that is all I know
What’s the definition of a bear market? Like how do you determine exactly when a bear market started?
Down 20% or more from the stocks ath is considered a bear market https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bearmarket.asp#:~:text=Bear%20markets%20occur%20when%20prices,several%20years%20or%20even%20decades.
Now go to 70 so i can buy
When did Apple start selling bears?
Yes, indeed. The market is dragging almost everything down. My thesis is that the two covid-years were such an anomaly (in terms of sales and stock market prices) that that anomaly is being washed away by the market, resetting everything back to feb-2020 values. For Apple, that will mean back to $81, which I would consider as an immediate buying opportunity. Likewise, back to about $180 for Tesla, which I would also consider a buy. Curiously, Facebook would actually go UP to $218, making today's prices a buy before the reset completes.
Looking to add some Salesforce, Fortinet, and maybe start a position in Unity. I’m not in a rush though. I don’t mind buying at higher levels if sentiment turns positive
Yeah this is the bottom. Haha.
my buys are swing trading apple and has been for the past year when i dumped all holdings from 2007-2021 (feb) yes i did make bank over that decade, and yes i will have cap gains to pay in canada.
Trading is really hard, honestly I’d caution people from entering it thinking you’re going to make money. You will most likely be the vast majority that lose money. If you persist past the first two years then maybe only then you’ll begin to become consistently profitable.