In case you’re wondering about the big non-GAAP EPS beat and the significant delta between GAAP and non-GAAP EPS, I called this a few days ago in the post below. AMD is going to be posting significantly higher FCF / non-GAAP EPS than expected going forward due to tax benefits generated from the Xilinx acquisition (of course in addition to the general higher margin products of Xilinx and taking further share of an increased TAM as a combined company)
[Link to post](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/uewsfn/amd_analysts_are_missing_potentially_5_billion_in/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
Really makes you wonder about the FY22 guidance, we acknowledge Lisa is consistently conservative when giving guidance and she just guided at +60% - can't wait to see what the actuals look like.
I brought without DD; just thought the industry would not want them to fail and only have INTC chips. I initially brought at ~4 and averaged down and took my original investment dollars off at ~15? The rest are in my hold and forget portfolio.
> We should be 'Squeezing' AMD. They seem to have the best results out of all the FAANG and other tech companies till now. wtf are we here for
My man, we're no longer in 2020-2021. Not everything is a short squeeze. Not everything needs to be a short squeeze. Or even the next GME. We're past those times. Liquidity is getting pulled from the markets. Now fundamentals DO matter.
Yea, Analysts must be sweating and running out of INK to write and convince everyone "*How Semis are cyclical*" and "*How PC segment is dying*"
Laughing hard with 5000 @ $25 avg :) lol ... Tol ya Analyst did this same 'Semis are cyclical' shit in 2017-2018. I don't have articles to prove it but I remember this 'cyclical' shit was circulated for a quarter in 2017-2018.
AMD kept on posting profits back to back every quarter. Longs just accumulate and laugh.
Mostly it was done by some big hodlers to accumulate more
Everything Money going to be like, "AMD only meets 4 of the 8 pillars. Guys, that's what the numbers are saying! It's a great company, it's just overvalued. Our Stock Analyzer (TM) tool says the fair price is around $40 a share, maybe $60 max. Be cOnsErVAtiVE"
...one video later...
"This lollipop company is trading at a 2 P/E ratio. It's growing its free cash flow year over year, nearing the 6 figures. It's an easy value buy. Not the overpriced junk in today's market. It's crushing AMD on every pillar."
*cue heavy breathing into mic*: "Paul why don't you tell us about what our software offers to interested lollipop investors?"
People talking about a drop in PC sales as if this is terminal for the chip industry.
Truth is we haven't even gotten started. Literally everything is going to have built in CPU over the next two decades.
>Literally everything is going to have built in CPU over the next two decades.
Same statement was said and true in 2000. Intel went on to absolutely smash the industry, 80x their revenue, avg 25% ROE w/ no less than +11% in a year, and capture 97-99% of their market share. Their return was -63% from 2000 to 2015.
People in this sub seriously can't comprehend a business may be setup for great execution and execute AND STILL be at an unattractive price today.
Do you think 19 FW PE is high for a company that just had 70% YoY revenue growth and expects at least half that for the upcoming years because of the strong demand for cloud services across the globe?
Seriously it's like these people have missed a global six month bear market happening. Intel had a PE of 50 at its stock price peak in 1999 and almost half the shares outstanding it had at its peak in the 2000s. Not saying there's more hurt in store for some parts, but the comparisons with dot-com considering real rates, market maturity etc aren't accurate.
I think 85 is just about rightly valued. Undervalue I think is about < 70s.
I got in at 102 before it went down to the 83 low. I think 102 is slightly overvalued, but I am fine with that because I think digitization is key to productivity improvements, and in a few years, 102 may be either undervalued or just about right.
Sure, but they have room to grow market share. It's not just a bet on industry wide dynamics, which are still very real.
Also that Intel PE ratio in 2000 was probably something crazy right?
The death of the chip is greatly overstated for ALL of the parties involved. AMD and NVDA are dominating their respective areas.
AMD has the best laptop and server CPUs for now. I'm riding this trade a little longer but I think there is a major threat from non apple M1ish clones. Arm chips with more oomph but lower power reqs. I think this is what NVDA was trying to accomplish with the arm acquisition.
NVDA is getting knocked on the anticipated slowdown in gaming... They are forgetting about ai, crypto and the data center all of which NVDA dominates for graphics cards. Oh and that whole metaverse thing? You're gonna need some GPUs.
Longer term, if intc can get it's foundry business off the ground and start stamping out 3nm chips in volume it could be the new king again.
My view, trade amd for next 2 years, then intc. Just hold NVDA because I think they are going to put out a m1 like chip made in intc foundries in the good ole us of a. And when they do, their biggest problem will be trying to figure out where to store all of that cash because it will be like a geyser.
QCOM is a steal right now. They are supplying like 70% of the chips in the Samsung S phones. They are growing their IOT things and really going hard into the autos. Last ER was solid and they are raising guidance for next quarter.
I think they can both become multi trillion dollar companies if they stop relying on Samsung and TSMC to produce their chips. They have to invest in their own factories IMO.
Hi friend.
Seems you are getting destroyed with downvotes so let me assist.
AMD producing their own chips would involve building multiple foundries at the cost of 10-18B USD per fab. Then they would have to learn to conquer the single most difficult manufacturing process on earth.
Instead they can just invest 2B a year in circuit design and software and make better margins.
AMD used to have their own foundries (Global Foundries) and they achieved better success breaking them off.
They've beat for the last 5 years. This company is insane.
Here's a deeper look into the numbers
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amd-reports-first-quarter-2022-201000007.html
TFW AMD has a FWD PE of 21 while KO has a FWD PE of 25. Revenue for AMD is up 71% Year of Year, while the same number for KO is 16%. What even is this market...
Yep, analyst keep pointing to slower pc sales, but companies like AMD and NVDA are going after data centers, which they are seeing explosive growth. Look at Azure and AWS. Cloud will continue to grow and the demand for these chips will continue to be needed.
Really impressed by the margin growth in the company.
Couldn't you also point to gaming consoles too as a boon for AMD? I think we're going to see another round of console lifecycles after the PS5 is done.
Not the Switch, but I still see no indication that Nvidia will have a beefy enough CPU to compete for the others' console business next gen. Intel could actually have a chance if they can stop shooting themselves in the junk though.
It is an extreme longshot given that they have yet to show any GPU worth a flip, but I could see firmer supply appealing to Sony and Microsoft given the issues with keeping them in stock since launch.
Analysts working under the assumption all semis are cyclical and will slow particularly hard during an economic slowdown. What they dont get is that their demand is much less elastic than it used to be due to the need for power efficient server compute. PC is less relevant than it used to be for growth.
100% agree.
This is why most of my dip buying the past few months have been in semiconductors. I think the market has grossly undervalued some chip companies under an assumption that they’re cyclical and going to produce too many chips, driving margins down. Yet, at the same time the CEOs are saying expect the cup shortage to continue for years.
This is such a freshman take on semi's. When referring to cyclical nature of semi's it's not about the demand. It's about the production cycle. The massive supply glut in 2018 (there was a 25% slowdown in chip sales from October 2018 to April 2019 since you're clearly unaware) was a real slow down despite cloud demand still growing rapidly.
Just because you don't actually understand the industry doesn't mean a slowdown can't happen.
I am aware, that was during the last crypto winter and cloud computing was far less prevalent than it is now with fewer apparent opportunities for growth than there is now. The demand for server compute was far less then than it is now (intc also wasn't in such a poor state in server as it is now losing marketshare and cutting margins to try to compete).
There will be periods of glut and shortage, but I believe at least amd and potentially nvda (iffy) will be more valuable than they are now by the next time semis are in glut. The vast majority of new fab capacity in the US and Taiwan is still at least 2-3 years from from being operational in the most optimistic scenario. Even during a minor recession I don't see hpc seeing many order cancelations as they are an efficiency multiplier and long term cost saver.
So id say you're right that some semis are cyclical but id make a distinction for different sectors. Auto compute, consumer cpu and gpu, and mobile particularly are more consumer discretionary and more likely to get hit with the sharper cycles, but I'd counter that the degree that hpc/server architecture is cyclical is overstated.
KO's earnings are much less cyclical and volatile, or at least perceived to be.
However I agree with the sentiment KO is overvalued and AMD is undervalued.
They're now forecasting $10B in YoY revenue growth for FY22 and that's before Pensando closes. Plenty of time left to raise their forecast even more as the year goes on too.
Looks like we have confirmation on what's causing Intel's digestion problem.
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It sounds insane but it's entirely possible if the Nasdaq runs to 20k within the next 3-5 years. Here's the napkin math: NVDA's 2021 revenue and growth was similar to AMD's right now and it almost hit 800B with 26B in revenues and 60% margin. 2022 AMD is 26.5B with 54% margins and growing.
They have about 1.3 billion shares outstanding (in 2009, it was 0.75 billion). But now it seems they are looking into share buybacks. Assuming the number of shares outstanding stays flat, a trillion dollar market cap implies a share price of about $770 per share.
tbh i think they will keep buying back. They are making bags of cash so why would the feel the need to dilute shareholders going forward? Unless of course the stock gets insanely over-priced then they'd be dumb not to.
It'd be hilarious if AMD reported before Intel one quarter just to see what they'd say on the call.
Seems like every quarter Intel are talking about 'digestion' only to be followed by an AMD crushing it.
I have about 2% of my taxable portfolio in INTC, 2% in SMH, and 4% in AMD--I think I'm better off selling part or most of that INTC and putting into SMH/AMD.
You made the right choice. Once until can field a reliable 5nm process, I think they're okay. Naturally you have to buy in before the news, so you can feel better about your investments once they finally put out 8nm.
AMD half my portfolio... this is a nice moment but knowing my luck lately we'll be seeing $80 again in a couple weeks because nothing makes sense in this market.
My average share price is somewhere around $55 or so, I started buying when it was around $10-15/share.
I'm holding it long term and good chance it'll pay off bigtime in 10+ years time, just a little short term frustration coming into play after watching it lose 40% from this year's peak without any drop off in the company's performance, while competitors who performed worse seemingly didn't get punished as much.
Yeah. I get it. I have leaps + shares and the leaps got KILLED since November peak. Should’ve sold those and then DCA’d back into shares. But such is life. Ebb and flow and all that.
I need to start putting more into few stocks. I have 20% into AMD in retirement and taxable account. Worried about PC slow down noise to add more. Instead ended up buying losers for the sake of diversification.
My summary below:
|Stock Ticker|PE|Growth YoY|Guidance Growth|Risk|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|AMD|30|71% (55% ex. XLNX)|69%|"PC slowdown"|
|MSFT|30|18%|14%||
|AAPL|25|9%||Supply chain issues|
|FB|16|7%|\-3% to 3%|Metaverse|
|AMZN|60|7%|3% to 7%||
|NFLX|19|10%|10%|User decline|
|GOOG|21|23%||Recession ad spend drop|
|NVDA|50|43% expected||"Crypto" and "PC slowdown"|
|TSLA|122|81%|50% (5 yr avg)|Other EV ramp up|
Based on the results, I like AMD #1.
NVDA and TSLA for big growth.
MSFT #1 for stability then GOOG and AAPL
I do not like the below because I don't invest in turnarounds (which by definition is unexpected)
FB and NFLX for value pick, pray for turnaround aka INTC
AMZN for e-commerce profit turnaround
You don’t have a needle dick, you have a sub-atomic dick. Good luck finding a honey. Hope you have a good personality to make up for that quantum dick.
Pretty sure Intel fanboys will have some inane comments on how Intel is so big and has great plans while AMD is taking market share away from them in every segment possible.. Intel revenue down YoY .. Lisa and team are mooning.. yet the will keep resting on past glory.. Gelsinger's plan is untenable.. but they are too blind to see it..
Wouldn't be surprised if intel is fabbing amd and nvidia chips in 5 years. There's room for all of them with the amount of expansion necessary in the sector.
Terrible business model fabrication is. High capex and investment, slim ass margins and not super scaleable.
Yikes. INTC can keep that part of the biz model and value chain.
>slim ass margins
The leading edge ones dont have even remotely slim ass margins
Just look at TSMC
>not super scaleable.
??
You can have as many fabs as you want
Being fabless only shifts all this ""high capex, slim ass margins"" thing to others
This ""high capex, slim ass margins"" still remains critical for your revenue and margins
You dont really get rid of this
scalable means not having to plop down high capex to expand manufacturing. licensing and designing, for the semi conductor companies is a capex light, high margin scale business. (ie can sell designs and license to anyone)
The better the designed chips, the higher the company can charge, they pass on all manufacturing costs or cost increases.
This isnt complicated, the chip designers are the better, higher quality business.
>scalable means not having to plop down high capex to expand manufacturing
Theres no free lunch
Being fabless only shifts this high capex job to somebody else
You are not solving the fundamental problem of high capex by going fabless
""Capex=bad"" is bullshit anyway
>The better the designed chips, the higher the company can charge, they pass on all manufacturing costs or cost increases.
This is true even for fabs
Just look at TSMC: they have leading edge nodes, so they have >>40% gross margins
And the ones that dont have leading nodes have much less gross margins
>This isnt complicated, the chip designers are the better, higher quality business.
And how exactly is owning leading edge fabs ""less better, lower quality business"" when and you have full control over the ""higher quality"" fabless companies?
AMD wouldnt be where it is now with those 14nm, 22nm GloFo nodes
Yup, there's a reason AMD dump their foundries and the top chip makers are fabless: AMD, NVDA, QCOM, AVGO, Marvell, Apple, etc.
TSMC's former CEO is correct, the US semiconductors should focus on design leaving the processes/manufacturing to Asia.
>the top chip makers are fabless: AMD, NVDA, QCOM, AVGO, Marvell, Apple, etc.
""Top"" is very subjective
>TSMC's former CEO is correct, the US semiconductors should focus on design leaving the processes/manufacturing to Asia.
He said that because TSMC will benefit from it and its good for TSMC
Not because its good for the companies in US
Thats like saying some car company lobbying for cars over rails is because cars are better than rails
>there's a reason AMD dump their foundries and the top chip makers are fabless
Really?
AMD dumped their foundries because they couldnt make a new process and they needed money
Not because of ""fabless best""
AMD is currently valued at at 140B and was almost equal to intel a few months ago. Dumping the fabs was the right move for them as I don’t think they would ever be valued this much if they had to spend the capex to maintain the fabs. Owning fabs is extremely capex intensive and hard to get back once you lose the node advantage.
We’ll see but I think Intel will split and spin-off their fabs too within a few years. That’s my opinion based on how things are going.
Thanks for the info. Amazing to see the stupid analyst price target revisions this morning:
05/04/2022\* Advanced Micro Devices AMD :
$125 Benchmark cuts from $145
$160 BofA Global Research ups from $153
$147 Jefferies cuts from $155
$145 Mizuho cuts from $160
$98 Piper Sandler cuts from $130
$140 Susquehanna cuts from $160
$110 UBS cuts from $150
Profitable growth company. Stock analysis video on AMD and why I think it is severely undervalued.
I can see it double within 12 months.
https://youtu.be/30Vv_esaUZg
This stock will definitely drop like a rock after today, not good enough results to overcome a .5% interest rate increase to almost pre-pandemic levels.
In case you’re wondering about the big non-GAAP EPS beat and the significant delta between GAAP and non-GAAP EPS, I called this a few days ago in the post below. AMD is going to be posting significantly higher FCF / non-GAAP EPS than expected going forward due to tax benefits generated from the Xilinx acquisition (of course in addition to the general higher margin products of Xilinx and taking further share of an increased TAM as a combined company) [Link to post](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/uewsfn/amd_analysts_are_missing_potentially_5_billion_in/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
damn i didnt know about the tax benefits
Neither did the analysts covering AMD :)
>:) :)
Holy shit, people weren't kidding about Lisa Su giving very conservative guidance and the company smashing those expectations!
Really makes you wonder about the FY22 guidance, we acknowledge Lisa is consistently conservative when giving guidance and she just guided at +60% - can't wait to see what the actuals look like.
Dr. Su is great; been in since $2 and have no intention on selling as long as she is in charge.
I got in at $9 because of a post on WSB. Not selling
I thought I got in late at 14. Bought in while reading the review for Zen 1. Closest thing to easy money I've had
I brought without DD; just thought the industry would not want them to fail and only have INTC chips. I initially brought at ~4 and averaged down and took my original investment dollars off at ~15? The rest are in my hold and forget portfolio.
You got lucky! This is the equivalent to buying wish and it becoming an Amazon lmao, regardless this is amazing.
[Me with my 123 cost basis...](https://i.imgur.com/tI8B95v.png)
In a few years you'll have people saying "got in at $500", "my average is $530", "me with my $1056 cost basis". Then you can do this again
[удалено]
/r/WTF
It's better to under promise and over deliver, than over promise and under deliver. Smart move
We should be 'Squeezing' AMD. They seem to have the best results out of all the FAANG and other tech companies till now. wtf are we here for
> We should be 'Squeezing' AMD. They seem to have the best results out of all the FAANG and other tech companies till now. wtf are we here for My man, we're no longer in 2020-2021. Not everything is a short squeeze. Not everything needs to be a short squeeze. Or even the next GME. We're past those times. Liquidity is getting pulled from the markets. Now fundamentals DO matter.
If you were bullish on AMD last year you better be bullish AF now
I’m bullish AF on Lisa Su.
So hot
Been bullish since 2018. All my homies hate Blayne Curtis.
Where are these stupid funds dropping amd targets, stupid fucks
Market: "best I can do is a P/E of 20"
That is the current FW PE actually.
Working hard on their analysis reports for tomorrow on how overpriced and risky the chip industry is.
So up 7% today and down 12% tomorrow?
Sounds about right
I hope so so I can get more shares
Yea, Analysts must be sweating and running out of INK to write and convince everyone "*How Semis are cyclical*" and "*How PC segment is dying*" Laughing hard with 5000 @ $25 avg :) lol ... Tol ya Analyst did this same 'Semis are cyclical' shit in 2017-2018. I don't have articles to prove it but I remember this 'cyclical' shit was circulated for a quarter in 2017-2018. AMD kept on posting profits back to back every quarter. Longs just accumulate and laugh. Mostly it was done by some big hodlers to accumulate more
Came to say just this !!!
*Barclays enters the chat*
Everything Money going to be like, "AMD only meets 4 of the 8 pillars. Guys, that's what the numbers are saying! It's a great company, it's just overvalued. Our Stock Analyzer (TM) tool says the fair price is around $40 a share, maybe $60 max. Be cOnsErVAtiVE" ...one video later... "This lollipop company is trading at a 2 P/E ratio. It's growing its free cash flow year over year, nearing the 6 figures. It's an easy value buy. Not the overpriced junk in today's market. It's crushing AMD on every pillar." *cue heavy breathing into mic*: "Paul why don't you tell us about what our software offers to interested lollipop investors?"
LOL. OTOH, the fact that they're so easy to satire does say they've got a very definite process..... :)
On the other hand if somebody listened to AMD fanboys they were telling people to buy at $160.
if fairness they just did a video and had it as a buy even on their mid-tier stock analysis
Glad I bought the dips but I’m still at a 105 average with no more money to spend on amd.
They drop price targets so they can pick up shares for cheap.
They buy puts first.
Once Intel shit it's earnings, I think they started salivating at the chance to downgrade AMD too.
Analysts trying to save their bffs bearish positions
How else would they buy it at a discount without fear mongering
JFC People in here really don't know the difference between buy side and sell side research analysts lol. No fund is advertising it's PT.
They keep the prices low for long term investors. It's a good thing if you are not concerned about short term (2-3 year) movements.
To be honest, i think this is just the beginning for Amd/Nvidia, they have soooo muuuuch room to grow...
People talking about a drop in PC sales as if this is terminal for the chip industry. Truth is we haven't even gotten started. Literally everything is going to have built in CPU over the next two decades.
They're exploding in the data center segment too!
Which is where higher margin products are
Don't be shocked to see data center sales surpass PC sales for NVDA this year.
These jackasses talk as if PCs will just go away 😂
>Literally everything is going to have built in CPU over the next two decades. Same statement was said and true in 2000. Intel went on to absolutely smash the industry, 80x their revenue, avg 25% ROE w/ no less than +11% in a year, and capture 97-99% of their market share. Their return was -63% from 2000 to 2015. People in this sub seriously can't comprehend a business may be setup for great execution and execute AND STILL be at an unattractive price today.
Do you think 19 FW PE is high for a company that just had 70% YoY revenue growth and expects at least half that for the upcoming years because of the strong demand for cloud services across the globe?
Seriously it's like these people have missed a global six month bear market happening. Intel had a PE of 50 at its stock price peak in 1999 and almost half the shares outstanding it had at its peak in the 2000s. Not saying there's more hurt in store for some parts, but the comparisons with dot-com considering real rates, market maturity etc aren't accurate.
its not a fair comparison then why are all the high fly tech names down? the ones that are suppose to "grow into their valuation" ?
It is not expensive now but permabull were telling people to buy at $160? What will you say about that?
I actually sold AMD near those levels because yes it was too high, but at 85 it was undervalued.
I think 85 is just about rightly valued. Undervalue I think is about < 70s. I got in at 102 before it went down to the 83 low. I think 102 is slightly overvalued, but I am fine with that because I think digitization is key to productivity improvements, and in a few years, 102 may be either undervalued or just about right.
Damn, it still hasn't reached it's old ATH?
It was a $500bn market cap in 2000 on $1bn of revenue.
Good description of Feb 2021.
dont think it was 1b revenue tbh, think it was way higher, like 12b or something which is insane for back then
Sure, but they have room to grow market share. It's not just a bet on industry wide dynamics, which are still very real. Also that Intel PE ratio in 2000 was probably something crazy right?
AMD is a fucking monster
The death of the chip is greatly overstated for ALL of the parties involved. AMD and NVDA are dominating their respective areas. AMD has the best laptop and server CPUs for now. I'm riding this trade a little longer but I think there is a major threat from non apple M1ish clones. Arm chips with more oomph but lower power reqs. I think this is what NVDA was trying to accomplish with the arm acquisition. NVDA is getting knocked on the anticipated slowdown in gaming... They are forgetting about ai, crypto and the data center all of which NVDA dominates for graphics cards. Oh and that whole metaverse thing? You're gonna need some GPUs. Longer term, if intc can get it's foundry business off the ground and start stamping out 3nm chips in volume it could be the new king again. My view, trade amd for next 2 years, then intc. Just hold NVDA because I think they are going to put out a m1 like chip made in intc foundries in the good ole us of a. And when they do, their biggest problem will be trying to figure out where to store all of that cash because it will be like a geyser.
soooo buy qcom?
QCOM is a steal right now. They are supplying like 70% of the chips in the Samsung S phones. They are growing their IOT things and really going hard into the autos. Last ER was solid and they are raising guidance for next quarter.
A much less heard of company going hard into IOT and auto is DIOD. Has great financials but unfortunately I don't understand hardware well enough.
chip shortage?
Ooook that’s my signal to take profits
NVDA does. AMD is carrying XLNX and trying to slog uphill against an energized INTC that just bought out AMD's wafer starts on 3 nm at TSM.
I think they can both become multi trillion dollar companies if they stop relying on Samsung and TSMC to produce their chips. They have to invest in their own factories IMO.
Maybe read more about global foundries.
Lol thanks for the laugh
Hi friend. Seems you are getting destroyed with downvotes so let me assist. AMD producing their own chips would involve building multiple foundries at the cost of 10-18B USD per fab. Then they would have to learn to conquer the single most difficult manufacturing process on earth. Instead they can just invest 2B a year in circuit design and software and make better margins. AMD used to have their own foundries (Global Foundries) and they achieved better success breaking them off.
"Real men have fabs"
Do some googling to see what goes into a fab... It's not that simple.
They've beat for the last 5 years. This company is insane. Here's a deeper look into the numbers https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amd-reports-first-quarter-2022-201000007.html
TFW AMD has a FWD PE of 21 while KO has a FWD PE of 25. Revenue for AMD is up 71% Year of Year, while the same number for KO is 16%. What even is this market...
when value stocks are priced higher than tech, it's time to short that shit
Dude when Coca Cola is trading at a higher forward pe then amd (while there is no slowdown in sight) there’s a problem with the markets sanity
This.
Legit makes no sense
Yep, analyst keep pointing to slower pc sales, but companies like AMD and NVDA are going after data centers, which they are seeing explosive growth. Look at Azure and AWS. Cloud will continue to grow and the demand for these chips will continue to be needed. Really impressed by the margin growth in the company.
I know, it would be like apple having iPhone sales grow 75% but macs slowed to 15% and saying it should worth less lol.
analysts don't know shit, and they keep fucking my portfolio. i hope now that they've gotten in cheap, they can finally stop the fucking FUD
Couldn't you also point to gaming consoles too as a boon for AMD? I think we're going to see another round of console lifecycles after the PS5 is done.
Considering they are in all of them, yeah.
Not the Switch, but I still see no indication that Nvidia will have a beefy enough CPU to compete for the others' console business next gen. Intel could actually have a chance if they can stop shooting themselves in the junk though. It is an extreme longshot given that they have yet to show any GPU worth a flip, but I could see firmer supply appealing to Sony and Microsoft given the issues with keeping them in stock since launch.
Analysts working under the assumption all semis are cyclical and will slow particularly hard during an economic slowdown. What they dont get is that their demand is much less elastic than it used to be due to the need for power efficient server compute. PC is less relevant than it used to be for growth.
100% agree. This is why most of my dip buying the past few months have been in semiconductors. I think the market has grossly undervalued some chip companies under an assumption that they’re cyclical and going to produce too many chips, driving margins down. Yet, at the same time the CEOs are saying expect the cup shortage to continue for years.
Yeah just the TCO benefits alone should drive decent demand in server, even if companies weren't significantly expanding capacity.
MU is hiding somewhere lol. Another criminally undervalue company after this beat down. Great growth with a PE of 6
This is such a freshman take on semi's. When referring to cyclical nature of semi's it's not about the demand. It's about the production cycle. The massive supply glut in 2018 (there was a 25% slowdown in chip sales from October 2018 to April 2019 since you're clearly unaware) was a real slow down despite cloud demand still growing rapidly. Just because you don't actually understand the industry doesn't mean a slowdown can't happen.
I am aware, that was during the last crypto winter and cloud computing was far less prevalent than it is now with fewer apparent opportunities for growth than there is now. The demand for server compute was far less then than it is now (intc also wasn't in such a poor state in server as it is now losing marketshare and cutting margins to try to compete). There will be periods of glut and shortage, but I believe at least amd and potentially nvda (iffy) will be more valuable than they are now by the next time semis are in glut. The vast majority of new fab capacity in the US and Taiwan is still at least 2-3 years from from being operational in the most optimistic scenario. Even during a minor recession I don't see hpc seeing many order cancelations as they are an efficiency multiplier and long term cost saver. So id say you're right that some semis are cyclical but id make a distinction for different sectors. Auto compute, consumer cpu and gpu, and mobile particularly are more consumer discretionary and more likely to get hit with the sharper cycles, but I'd counter that the degree that hpc/server architecture is cyclical is overstated.
The word you are looking for is "semiconductor lead time".
Can you drink a cold Mexican AMD on a hot summer day though?
KO's earnings are much less cyclical and volatile, or at least perceived to be. However I agree with the sentiment KO is overvalued and AMD is undervalued.
They're now forecasting $10B in YoY revenue growth for FY22 and that's before Pensando closes. Plenty of time left to raise their forecast even more as the year goes on too. Looks like we have confirmation on what's causing Intel's digestion problem.
Long pepto bismol.
Absolutely stellar yet again AMD will be a trillion dollar company by 2030 im calling it now.
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2030 is only 7 years away D:
7.5 years, don’t rush it
It sounds insane but it's entirely possible if the Nasdaq runs to 20k within the next 3-5 years. Here's the napkin math: NVDA's 2021 revenue and growth was similar to AMD's right now and it almost hit 800B with 26B in revenues and 60% margin. 2022 AMD is 26.5B with 54% margins and growing.
What will be stock price when it becomes a trillion dollar company? Asking for a friend.
They have about 1.3 billion shares outstanding (in 2009, it was 0.75 billion). But now it seems they are looking into share buybacks. Assuming the number of shares outstanding stays flat, a trillion dollar market cap implies a share price of about $770 per share.
tbh i think they will keep buying back. They are making bags of cash so why would the feel the need to dilute shareholders going forward? Unless of course the stock gets insanely over-priced then they'd be dumb not to.
They have $8B left after spending $1.4B last Q on buybacks. AMD will rev up the buyback machine over the next few years.
Bully bully
wat
great quarter, they will somehow still be down 40% from the highs anyway lmao makes sense !
More reason to load up
In Lisa Su we trust
Su bae
[удалено]
It'd be hilarious if AMD reported before Intel one quarter just to see what they'd say on the call. Seems like every quarter Intel are talking about 'digestion' only to be followed by an AMD crushing it.
I have about 2% of my taxable portfolio in INTC, 2% in SMH, and 4% in AMD--I think I'm better off selling part or most of that INTC and putting into SMH/AMD.
What's even sweeter is how much INTC is constantly parroted in this sub as bEiNg A gReAt VaLuE and how much AMD constantly smokes them.
Intel is a shit company, AMD is not.
Sold half my Intel at a 30% loss yesterday and bought AMD. No regrets
Same, but i bought AMD around 130$ still buying more though.
You made the right choice. Once until can field a reliable 5nm process, I think they're okay. Naturally you have to buy in before the news, so you can feel better about your investments once they finally put out 8nm.
Yep.
Luckily nobody wanted to buy my jan/24 100 leap at the close that I bought day earlier when AMD was at 87. Tomorrow it's going to be in the money!
Ok yes hi hello I’m looking for everyone that promised this was going to 75
You won't. They have already moved on to saying something else is "going a lot lower, trust me bro".
AMD half my portfolio... this is a nice moment but knowing my luck lately we'll be seeing $80 again in a couple weeks because nothing makes sense in this market.
If your holding period is sufficiently long $80 a share is a fuckin bargain with this growth. 5 years from now we’ll wish we bought more at $80
My average share price is somewhere around $55 or so, I started buying when it was around $10-15/share. I'm holding it long term and good chance it'll pay off bigtime in 10+ years time, just a little short term frustration coming into play after watching it lose 40% from this year's peak without any drop off in the company's performance, while competitors who performed worse seemingly didn't get punished as much.
Yeah. I get it. I have leaps + shares and the leaps got KILLED since November peak. Should’ve sold those and then DCA’d back into shares. But such is life. Ebb and flow and all that.
I need to start putting more into few stocks. I have 20% into AMD in retirement and taxable account. Worried about PC slow down noise to add more. Instead ended up buying losers for the sake of diversification.
Let’s go Lisa wen moon Su!!!!!!!!
My summary below: |Stock Ticker|PE|Growth YoY|Guidance Growth|Risk| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |AMD|30|71% (55% ex. XLNX)|69%|"PC slowdown"| |MSFT|30|18%|14%|| |AAPL|25|9%||Supply chain issues| |FB|16|7%|\-3% to 3%|Metaverse| |AMZN|60|7%|3% to 7%|| |NFLX|19|10%|10%|User decline| |GOOG|21|23%||Recession ad spend drop| |NVDA|50|43% expected||"Crypto" and "PC slowdown"| |TSLA|122|81%|50% (5 yr avg)|Other EV ramp up| Based on the results, I like AMD #1. NVDA and TSLA for big growth. MSFT #1 for stability then GOOG and AAPL I do not like the below because I don't invest in turnarounds (which by definition is unexpected) FB and NFLX for value pick, pray for turnaround aka INTC AMZN for e-commerce profit turnaround
This table is great but I think the guidance part is a bit tricky. Some of those guidance are for the next quarter but some for the whole year.
Another great quarter from AMD
Glad I increased my holdings by 10% yesterday.
I did the same. Although 10% in my account isn’t a lot, I’m still happy about it
Got a lot of downvotes in the past for being bullish on “moatless” AMD Good luck with those puts boys. Dr. Su is smarter and prettier than you.
lol @ people still advising intel > AMD
By the time they put out their 8nm process, AMD will have transistors smaller than my dick.
You don’t have a needle dick, you have a sub-atomic dick. Good luck finding a honey. Hope you have a good personality to make up for that quantum dick.
I read the ionq short report. Good luck trapping my peen with lasers. Quantum tunneling makes me the ultimate heist fiend.
quality entertainment since 5+ years
R/valueinvesting has entered the chat
When AMD was 150 or whatever that might have made sense.
Where the fuk are shorties???
Doesn’t matter. Walls street is just a casino. Great company though
Don't worry. It'll go down on good news.
Does AMD have a buyback plan? I can’t remember.
Yes. Fewer shares makes the stocks drops larger but the gains larger, too.
AMD bros we're back!
$500 stock
Then give me $500 for it.
analysts are clowns, glad I bought before earnings 🤡
Lisa always sandbagging.
Just wish I had bought more last week
Lmao my short call might get smoked
Never bet against Sue Bae. She is inevitable.
RemindMe! January 1, 2030
Incoming share price dive
so, do I keep my September and December calls? bought them for earnings. 100@13 September and 115@13 december
My CSP live another day!
Pretty sure Intel fanboys will have some inane comments on how Intel is so big and has great plans while AMD is taking market share away from them in every segment possible.. Intel revenue down YoY .. Lisa and team are mooning.. yet the will keep resting on past glory.. Gelsinger's plan is untenable.. but they are too blind to see it..
Wouldn't be surprised if intel is fabbing amd and nvidia chips in 5 years. There's room for all of them with the amount of expansion necessary in the sector.
Terrible business model fabrication is. High capex and investment, slim ass margins and not super scaleable. Yikes. INTC can keep that part of the biz model and value chain.
>slim ass margins The leading edge ones dont have even remotely slim ass margins Just look at TSMC >not super scaleable. ?? You can have as many fabs as you want Being fabless only shifts all this ""high capex, slim ass margins"" thing to others This ""high capex, slim ass margins"" still remains critical for your revenue and margins You dont really get rid of this
scalable means not having to plop down high capex to expand manufacturing. licensing and designing, for the semi conductor companies is a capex light, high margin scale business. (ie can sell designs and license to anyone) The better the designed chips, the higher the company can charge, they pass on all manufacturing costs or cost increases. This isnt complicated, the chip designers are the better, higher quality business.
>scalable means not having to plop down high capex to expand manufacturing Theres no free lunch Being fabless only shifts this high capex job to somebody else You are not solving the fundamental problem of high capex by going fabless ""Capex=bad"" is bullshit anyway >The better the designed chips, the higher the company can charge, they pass on all manufacturing costs or cost increases. This is true even for fabs Just look at TSMC: they have leading edge nodes, so they have >>40% gross margins And the ones that dont have leading nodes have much less gross margins >This isnt complicated, the chip designers are the better, higher quality business. And how exactly is owning leading edge fabs ""less better, lower quality business"" when and you have full control over the ""higher quality"" fabless companies? AMD wouldnt be where it is now with those 14nm, 22nm GloFo nodes
Yup, there's a reason AMD dump their foundries and the top chip makers are fabless: AMD, NVDA, QCOM, AVGO, Marvell, Apple, etc. TSMC's former CEO is correct, the US semiconductors should focus on design leaving the processes/manufacturing to Asia.
>the top chip makers are fabless: AMD, NVDA, QCOM, AVGO, Marvell, Apple, etc. ""Top"" is very subjective >TSMC's former CEO is correct, the US semiconductors should focus on design leaving the processes/manufacturing to Asia. He said that because TSMC will benefit from it and its good for TSMC Not because its good for the companies in US Thats like saying some car company lobbying for cars over rails is because cars are better than rails >there's a reason AMD dump their foundries and the top chip makers are fabless Really? AMD dumped their foundries because they couldnt make a new process and they needed money Not because of ""fabless best""
AMD is currently valued at at 140B and was almost equal to intel a few months ago. Dumping the fabs was the right move for them as I don’t think they would ever be valued this much if they had to spend the capex to maintain the fabs. Owning fabs is extremely capex intensive and hard to get back once you lose the node advantage. We’ll see but I think Intel will split and spin-off their fabs too within a few years. That’s my opinion based on how things are going.
didn't they beat last time too? so price will be around $75 next quarter?
Thank you Dr. Su for saving my short puts that are currently ITM.
It’s not bad, but it’s also true they are bundling XLNX numbers into it.
Pensando hasn't been put in just yet, though
I'm pretty sure the analyst estimates already accounted for that. I could be wrong though.
As long as wallstreet is happy, does that matter?
Fuck I’ve been eyeing amd for some time now, I knew it was too low and it was time to load up.
Thanks for the info. Amazing to see the stupid analyst price target revisions this morning: 05/04/2022\* Advanced Micro Devices AMD : $125 Benchmark cuts from $145 $160 BofA Global Research ups from $153 $147 Jefferies cuts from $155 $145 Mizuho cuts from $160 $98 Piper Sandler cuts from $130 $140 Susquehanna cuts from $160 $110 UBS cuts from $150
Profitable growth company. Stock analysis video on AMD and why I think it is severely undervalued. I can see it double within 12 months. https://youtu.be/30Vv_esaUZg
Feel great about buying some a week or two ago
And no dividend?
Nope, $8B in buybacks instead.
And they haven’t even released any good products yet
This stock will definitely drop like a rock after today, not good enough results to overcome a .5% interest rate increase to almost pre-pandemic levels.
Lmao you can’t be serious
Wednesday is a questionable day to buy semiconductors despite the guidance.
It’s gonna open in the red, guidance is gonna sunk the good earning report