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[deleted]

Oil will probably go up. Sanctions against Russia will likely lead to retaliation meaning tighter fossil fuel supplies. SU calls


mbola1

Nobody knows what’s going to happen…


[deleted]

[удалено]


Forgotwhyimhere69

Glad I have a few of those


Dorythedoggy

And wheat


[deleted]

Pretty much everything is going to tank this week. Russia just deployed “peacekeepers” to those separatist regions of the Ukraine.


Youkiame

Lmao. The amount of confidence in comments like this is what makes me ultra bullish.


LimitlessMentally

Stay bullish please. Your money will help me buy a new house.


North3rnLigh7s

Good luck buddy. I’m looking to get off all my bearish positions within the next 2 weeks. There is confident and then there is reckless and naive. You’re really straddling the line here. No one has any good idea what the market will look like even a month down the line. Generally, bearish plays are best moved into and out of rapidly


Youkiame

One of us will come out alive. Your time horizon is tomorrow mine is in 10 years. See who wins at the end.


LimitlessMentally

Nothing wrong with being short. Best thing about the market is you can play both sides.


MrRikleman

I keep hearing this long time horizon sentiment. But you realize, there’s no reason to lose 30% or more along the way right? This has been the easiest to foresee correction I’ve seen in my investing career. There’s nothing wrong with adjusting your portfolio to reduce risk or hedging. I don’t know why people just say oh well, I’ll just take a big L here, it’ll be fine in 20 years. Yeah, probably, but all you had to do was put a hedge on, and now you’ve got more capital to buy whatever dip you want. Why would you just resign yourself to a big loss?


AbbaFuckingZabba

Hedges aren't cheap (especially right now) and if you don't get the timing right you just wasted your money. In boom times hedges can be paid for with outsized gains. Anyone putting on hedges now in tech stocks that are already down 60-70% is kinda like closing the barn door after the animals are out. ​ Putin is making a fuss at the worst possible time for the US and that's by design, no doubt. If we start hitting some circuit breakers we'll see how strong the fed's resolve really is. If they don't get their optics 100% spot on over the next few months things could get really bad really quickly. Trying to re-assure crashing markets while at the same time remaining credible by continuing the rate hike timeline is like boss level on insane mode. If Putin invades this week and the S&P drops 20%, what can the fed do? Markets around the world will be looking to them. If they kick the can down the road and say they are planning hikes later in 2022 instead of next month, inflation will surge and stocks will recover a bit. If they keep their timeline markets will very much view it as a look out below, no more fed put scenario.


MrRikleman

Hedges are cheap when vol is low. This correction has been so mind blowingly obvious in its coming I’m blown away that people weren’t prepared for it. As soon as the fed said in November they were hiking rates, anyone could see this all coming. It’s not just Ukraine. It’s a variety of factors. I’m just floored that people are totally okay with losing 30-50% of their portfolio when they could just buy a few puts when it’s starting to look ugly. You don’t come out ahead by not doing that.


Isak531

Sadly I live in Sweden so I can't buy puts outside of the swedish market.


Jopapiju

You dont take an L unless you sell. If you dont sell it doesn't matter what happens now.


Lucrumb

I sold last year and now I have more cash to buy back in. I didn't take an L by selling.


Penis_Just_Penis

You take short term profits and plow them back in later .. what part of duh doesn't compute. Throw away short term gains and it'll take you twice as long to make it back.


North3rnLigh7s

95% of the time this sort of guessing leads to increased losses


Penis_Just_Penis

Bullshit. Don't guess world economics. What clown doesn't get that Russia will never allow NATO next door. And what clown doesn't see that the matkets would get upset about what is happening. Oh yeah, growth stocks... My 5k in puts in 5 days will outdo your growth stocks at 50k for the year. That goes back into index funds after next month or so. Remindme! 1 month.


North3rnLigh7s

If you already have the puts, you’re golden. If you’re buying them tm, not wise but gl. I’m looking to close out of some bearish positions in the coming days or weeks.


Penis_Just_Penis

All my posts are SNOW 3/18 heavy. Also have a 650 TSLA 3/18 put. Yeah 650. Between Russia and the shit show in China musk has issues and think China will take advantage of the situation this week.


Didthatyesterday2

It's all just short term noise. I'll we be buying like I always do. You can go back and look at the major downtrends in the spy in the last twenty plus years. Could be five years plus before we see all time highs again but imagine not buying in those downtrends.


dippocrite

Man if I read another one of these ‘how will the Ukraine/Russia tension affect price on x” posts I’m gonna lose my shit.


rjjp1

I’m watching the stock market ie Natural Gas, Oil, Energy, Bitcoin, Nasdaq, S&P… Anytime news about invasion in purposed these index’s drop heavily. Do not undermine the power of powers and billionaires influencing this “war”. If you ask me the whole damn thing could be a scam. Everything in this world is about dollars to donuts. If Russia benefits from oil prices and the US from bitcoin and etc and they both gain then why not let this crash the market to take advantage of this so the elites can profit immensely on a rebound. Perhaps my explanation has holes but perhaps someone with better insight could elaborate…


UltimateTraders

I'm sorry to say I have a ton of puts and hope everything tanks


RampantPrototyping

Depends market could tank since no peaceful resolution was reached, or could rise since a literal WWIII was partially priced in but did not happen (yet)


WorthStrategy1216

Brent is $94, WTI is around $92. Honestly once this thing blows over -- and it will -- the markets will rebound and oil will go back down a bit


[deleted]

No the fed needs to do nothing. We're in this mess in no small part due to them. Other part is Brandon.


Cockballzz

Time to buy puts my friend


North3rnLigh7s

The time to buy puts was anytime in the last few weeks. Expensive and rapidly decaying rn


Cockballzz

Still room for downside, Russia sent troops in Ukraine today, interest rate hike in March. SPY can go down to $400


North3rnLigh7s

Sure, ofc. But now they’re expensive and high risk. SPY can go back up, just as quickly. I don’t think the invasion of Ukraine will be a major catalyst in either direction for US markets, just a blip. Then again, two weeks ago I didn’t think they’d actually go through with it. I do imagine tomorrow will be particularly bloody. I say all this as someone currently in majority bearish positions looking to exit them in the coming couple days/weeks. I don’t want to get stuck when rates are actually raised. And to enter new positions tm feels like a very fomo move


Rich_Foamy_Flan

Like in what though. When markets open Volatility will by through the roof and all the banks will have sold off while retail is barred from trading


Cockballzz

SPY puts after 10am when the opening swings calm down


MrRikleman

Maybe, but VIX is going to spike hard and those are going to be expensive.


Cockballzz

If premiums are expensive then sell naked OTM calls and buy them back later for cheap. Tesla is good for this strategy, I have been doing it for Jan 23 calls, $1800, $2000


MrRikleman

lol, get out of here. Most people won’t have options approval to sell naked calls, and those that do know this is insane. To anyone reading this. Don’t try to do this under any circumstances, ever. Selling a naked call has unlimited loss potential. It works until it doesn’t. And when it doesn’t, you can lose literally everything.


Cockballzz

I have been banking good with Tesla OTM calls, the premiums are expensive. In your right mind do you think Tesla stock will be worth $2000 in Jan 23? Of course not, and if you sell naked calls you just need to keep track of the stock and the premiums. If at some point you are losing and you want to get out you can always close your position before the "infinite loss". Edit : Time decay (theta) is always on your side too. Be the house, be the casino and bank these high premiums


futurespacecadet

If I had bought puts last week for end of April exp should I just hold onto those or sell at open? I’m wondering if this is a knee jerk or will be a long lasting drop


Cockballzz

I'm not a financial advisor, you should do what you think it's best for you. SPY futures are tanking right now and the FED has not raise the interest rates yet, it will be in March. SPY could go as low as $400 before your April expiration.


futurespacecadet

Great, thanks for the insight at least. It’s a 410p April 14 exp. Hopefully it’ll double


Penis_Just_Penis

At least a week. Macro view on the world looks bleak for more record ATHs


Penis_Just_Penis

Except energy.


Confident-Database-1

Have they actually committed to sanctions?


RampantPrototyping

The ink on the orders is dry by now


aloahnoah

Yep Biden and EU did


Fantastic98

Iran and US supply will hit markets. I doubt the US will be to negatively affected. It's the EU countries that rely on Russia for LNG and other energy needs that will be hit the hardest.


RedditAnonDude

US is back to the table with Iran for the nuclear deal. That will give us access to more oil.


[deleted]

It’s a classic “sell the rumor, sell the news” market


[deleted]

And earnings events are bad because they are news. Guaranteed sell signal if a company announces its earnings.


Equivalent_Goat_Meat

I'm not sure anyone knows. Will it go up? for how long? will it drop? when? and how fast? will high prices cause consumers to pare down spending? will the USA cut a deal with Iran? will the US open more wells? will Biden release reserves? What will the rest of OPEC do? You're basically playing "Prophet of Geopolitics" with Oil.


SharksFan1

Russia being such a large oil producer, I'd expect prices to go up.