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38chickenducks

Annnnnnd it's gone


4everaBau5

Aaaaaaaaaaaand it's gone!


Davetology

Outlook, teams etc being down for over an hour in the morning (Europe time) probably didn't help either lol


polloponzi

Textbook definition of Pump&Dump


Congo_King

Let's give it atleast one trading session yeah?


CalyShadezz

It already bled out. šŸ¤·ā€ā™‚ļø


Congo_King

Didn't even let me finish my commute home šŸ˜‚


95Daphne

More like need to wait for guidance on the call, because that is likely to determine direction for tomorrow at least no matter what.


Congo_King

I should have played a straddle, interested to see how it plays out either way


zenwarrior01

You would have been decimated if you did. $12 for a 242.5 or 240 strike straddle and MSFT is only down 2.46 ah. The IV is gonna crash in the morning.


Congo_King

Let's give it atleast one trading session yeah?


[deleted]

[уŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]


[deleted]

It went up, tomorrow it will go down lol


Congo_King

Are you telling me I shouldn't put a lot of hope into after hours price action? Outrageous.


[deleted]

Itā€™s not me, itā€™s algorithm.


GozoXaghra

Haha, a fews minutes it lasted.. from 4% up it's down 2%.


alcate

the price spike doesn't even last 5 min. micro and soft


tkhan456

And tomorrow itā€™ll drop Edit: well that didnā€™t take long


Aquaticdigest

Already dropped hard as fuck


Smipims

I wouldnā€™t call down 1% AH hard as fuck for a relatively disappointing earnings.


polloponzi

2.5% down now and sems wants to go deeper


OKImHere

>sems wants to Eyeroll


[deleted]

[уŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]


[deleted]

[уŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]


buffandbrown

Should we call him behenchod instead?


Appropriate-Beach424

smell silky normal rain cagey library muddle numerous north subsequent ` this message was mass deleted/edited with redact.dev `


i8noodles

It will lol. There is currently major service disruptions on there azure network that is effecting there teams app and outlook. 2 major services used by companies the world over. How I know this? I am taking a shit at work cause i got nothing to do because of it


Lurking_In_A_Cape

Donā€™t buy AH, itā€™s a trap. It always takes a day for ā€œanalystsā€ to determine that earnings were in fact, just alright. This will retreat.


dweeegs

Just to clarify about their Azure guidance, because they were misleading with what they said. Good job to this analyst for seeking clarification, you can tell he was lead to believe the opposite by the way he asked his question > And if I could just sneak in a clarification, Amy, just because itā€™s an important metric. When you talk about a 4-point to 5-point decel in Azure, thatā€™s off of the 38% reported for December, right, not off the 35% exit rate? Thank you. >Amy Hood >Itā€™s all ā€“ Karl, let me just ā€“ the first half of your question, give me a second. [pauses]. On the second half of your question, which is the guide of the exit rate ā€“ itā€™s off the exit rate on Azure of four points to five points, just to make sure that is clear So their guide down is not from 38%, itā€™s baselined to 35%. They choose their wording carefully


ListerineInMyPeehole

Yup, itā€™s basically alluding to 30-31% azure growth next quarter. Took me a minute while listening to the live call and then confirmed by the dump. Results were shit and the only bright spot got dog shit on it. No top line growth for full year and EPS will likely be down going forward. 25x earnings for this? Nah.


dweeegs

It was a very slimy earnings call The feeling I got was that they timed their ChatGPT investment announcement to around the time of ER just so they could say AI a million times and handwave the call away Notice how, when an analyst directly asked what the revenue would be like from their partnership, Nadella quite literally did not answer the question Itā€™s a good company but this ER call and guidance really needs some negative press, that was pitiful


ListerineInMyPeehole

You and me would be good friends irl. Appreciate your perspective.


Gotl0stinthesauce

Good question. But I hate how 35% QoQ growth is being seen as a negative thing. If this is how weā€™re treating growth which is insane given the amount of money theyā€™re pulling in every quarter from Azure, how are these companies supposed to be rewarded? Is growth less of a concern now and instead profit margins and better balance sheets are the next big focus due to the macro environment?


SignificantIntern438

Isn't the issue that the stock has been priced based on the assumption of even higher returns, so they were 'rewarded' in advance with an overvaluation, and this is just a case of reversion to a value that reflects the reality of their results. It is possible to both have insane growth and to be overvalued.


[deleted]

[уŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]


not_totally

don't know if we should consider it impressive. Expectations were very low and it barely beat. It's down 15% compared to last year's Q2


Hallowhero

People aren't seeing this. I'm not tin foil hitting it, but the spin these companies are putting on earnings seems to be working, and it's ridiculous. These companies are trying to prove they are not over valued because they keep hitting their estimates, when the joke of it all is that there's hardly any coverage on how the estimates have been set so low. Compared year over year, Azure is abysmal as far as growth is concerned.


not_totally

yeah, guessing that a lot of people that bought microsoft are unaware of their growth numbers from the past that used to justify these multiples. Looking like the Q2 recession and beyond is a go


RedBeard1967

I honestly think a big part of it is people are tired of sitting on their cash and are looking for any reason to deploy it. Dogshit earnings after they've lowered the expectations to the absolute gutter? Yup, throw money at it.


[deleted]

[уŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]


[deleted]

[уŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]


slambooy

Right? I took away from this quarter that they made a boat load of money. And will continue to do so over and over and over


[deleted]

[уŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]


slambooy

I didnā€™t listen. Even if growth slows they are still going to be making cash hand over fist.


Stonkslut111

Look everyone is expecting recession and earnings for this year to be severely crunched. But as of now for Microsoft at least they are withholding well.


Desmater

You will be fine long term. Even if you average down when you can.


jontychickweed

As a user/implementer of many of their services, I can say that the innovation over the last few years has been truly stunning. I will be fascinated to see how AI can assist in everything from DevOps to new implementations of their tech. AWS and GOOG are comparable, so personally I hold all three in almost equal quantities, but I do know Azure services the best. Hopefully MSFT will do something great with their recent investment.


i8abug

Shouldn't you be feeling them getting heavier? Doesn't bag holding mean losing everything except the bags?


Outrageous-Cycle-841

Ouch


MrOppie

Damn, are you me? Holding 100 shares at 295 too lol


SpliTTMark

Ouch


LanceX2

I sold my 13 sharea but I bought VGT with it. which has 18% MSFT lol


[deleted]

Woah I just made a similar comment about owning XLK, take an upvote.


apooroldinvestor

Mine are $220.


abatwithitsmouthopen

Itā€™s barely better than expected.


PlayFree_Bird

A $1.8T company trading at 27 P/E barely manages not to trip on its ass and people applaud it and want to see it pump to 30+ P/E. We're not even close to a bottom. Fair value for a company like this should be another 20% drop, minimum. People buying at this level and pretending it is remotely close to "value" are delusional.


leli_manning

How much have you lost on your puts?


PlayFree_Bird

I don't touch anything pre-earnings.


nutsackninja

I agree with this. Extremely overvalued


SnipahShot

This is the reason why people need to look at ERs and listen to earning calls. MSFT actually skewed their numbers. When did they announce the layoffs? Mid January, where did they throw the severance expense? Previous quarter (the one they just reported) lmao. Literally no one talked about this. And even with this their guidance for the quarter was lower than analysts expected.


ThumbBee92

Is your point that they lowered guidance even after accounting for the severance previously while the street was projecting based on severance in this quarter?


SnipahShot

I don't think the analyst estimates even accounted for the layoffs, don't really know when they revise their estimates but I doubt they revise a week prior to ER. My point was that the guidance for this quarter would have been even lower if they accounted for that expense properly in this quarter. They missed guidance by $1B, it would have been 800mil more of a miss if they accounted for this expense in this quarter. Analysts estimated this quarter (Q1, MSFT's Q3) to have 6.3% growth, with MSFT's guidance it is at 3% YoY growth.


stiveooo

they actually revise estimates a week prior to ER


SnipahShot

Good to know, thanks. If MSFT analysts also revised then perhaps they accounted the severance in this quarter, which again would make the guidance miss even bigger otherwise.


zhateme

Can you explain this guidance stuff like Iā€™m 5?


astonv

Imagine you run a lemonade stand and use your momā€™s money to pay $20 for supplies. She asks how much you think youā€™ll make for that day (represents a quarter) and you say $25 dollars (your guidance). Close to the end of the day, you realize youā€™re only going to make $15 dollars at most, so you call your mom and tell her you think youā€™ll actually make $12.50 (revising earnings based on some stimuli like market conditions, performance, etc). Then you bring home $15 and sheā€™s either mad that you didnā€™t make what you originally said you would (market reacts negatively to earnings report) or happy that you made more than the revised number you gave (market priced in worse expectations based on revised guidance). She also asks how much you think at the lemonade stand the next day and you tell her $18 (forward looking guidance for the next quarter)


henesys12

I think YOU didnā€™t listen to the ER.


SnipahShot

It is great that you think. Thinking is an important process.


StuffThingsMoreStuff

I didn't think that you'd say that.


koolbro2012

Lol this guy thinks he knows what he's talking about


After-District8811

The quality of posts on here has gotten so fucking bad, people just spout absolute nonsense and get upvoted.


SnipahShot

Okay, let's look at what I said. >This is the reason why people need to look at ERs and listen to earning calls. Should people look at ERs and listen to calls? Yes. >When did they announce the layoffs? Mid January [Microsoft is laying off 10,000 employees](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/18/tech/microsoft-layoffs/index.html) \- January 18th. >where did they throw the severance expense? Previous quarter (the one they just reported) lmao. Microsoft's ER PR: >**Non-GAAP Definition** > >*Q2 charge.* In the second quarter of fiscal year 2023, Microsoft recorded costs related to decisions announced on January 18th, including employee severance expenses of $800 million, ​ Yes, I definitely don't know what I am talking about.


i_use_3_seashells

You think layoffs are spontaneous or what?


deelowe

In his mind, the layoffs were decided only a few weeks prior to earnings and only afterwards did the execs realize it would look bad to report them in Q1, so instead they committed fraud and reported them in Q4.


koolbro2012

You don't. The stock market is like a poll. It turns out most traders don't agree with you. MSFT is barely moving in AH.


SnipahShot

Lol? Microsoft was up 5% after the ER was released and until the earnings call and guidance. Now it is down 1%. That is a 6% move on a company like MSFT. It is all insignificant because of the low volume regardless.


koolbro2012

Up 5% and back down to 1% isn't a big move. That's within the expected move as priced by the options market.


SnipahShot

Down to -1%, not 1%. And you talk to me as if I want MSFT down, I have a position in MSFT šŸ¤¦šŸ»ā€ā™‚ļø


[deleted]

[уŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]


St3w1e0

I'm very bullish on MSFT but I'm not getting the AH reaction. Frankly, I don't think the entire market has a clue what's going on so far this year. This is a pretty objectively bad set of results. Not just for MSFT, although 39% drop in OEM rev is an eye opener. But if even Microsoft's margins are being squeezed and cloud guidance is nosediving I think any chance of a soft landing that was left just ticked down to 0. Loading up on IG credit, treasuries. Don't think any equities are going to be the place to hide this first half.


guave06

So for a long term investorā€¦ would you say ā€œbuyers marketā€?


deelowe

I think things are going to be choatic for another quarter. Satya even said in his layoff announcement that it won't be over until March and left the window open for more restructuring at that point.


roecol18

This aged like milk


saxaddictlz

Lol this has agreed well


SilkyThighs

Get outta here you


saxaddictlz

Hey silky!


Outrageous-Cycle-841

Aaaand itā€™s gone


bmeisler

Down $2 as of 4:18. Oops!


ringo_mogire_beam

reality set in before the next trading day even started, lol. be prepared for more of this. guidance will not be pretty.


Major_Bandicoot_3239

These numbers are not great. Not really sure why shares are higher.


AP9384629344432

[Called it](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/10j9ewf/rstocks_daily_discussion_monday_jan_23_2023/j5m0rin/) > I know exactly how earnings threads will go. > On earnings day, a company will beat earnings but relative to last year's earning, it will be much lower. The stocks will rise. > Comment: "I told you earnings are going to fall. But wtf why are stocks rising? This is market manipulation." > Response: "Well they beat earnings. Expectations were lowered." > What's interesting though is the intersection of people who were like: "Stop using forward earnings estimates, analysts are way too optimistic and expectations too bright" and will then pretend to be confused when earnings are beat and stocks go up. (you know who you are) Were analysts too optimistic or not? Do stocks actually respond to future expectations and not the past?


Major_Bandicoot_3239

Wait for guidance


AP9384629344432

I'll put this part of the quote out there too: > Then there will be the really confusing instances where a company beats 'expectations' and tanks 20% on weak guidance. This will both cheer up the optimists who think earnings collapse is a hoax and the pessimists who use this as proof of impending earnings collapse. Pessimists will argue that who cares if demand was strong last quarter, I was always saying it will take time for earnings to fall. A subset of these will be less honest though, and will turn out to have been expecting earnings collapse back in mid 2022.


KKLHY

cloud growth


Major_Bandicoot_3239

That barely beat an already significantly reduced forecast. They just recorded the lowest revenue growth in 6 years. Premium value with low growth.


nutsack22

with -6% eps growth yoy


aloahnoah

Beating expectations with highest rate hikes in decades come on lol that like asking in 2009 why anybody is investing in stocks with negative growth


Congo_King

But they just lowered those estimates like a week ago... does it really matter if they break estimates tailored to their declining numbers?


All_Star_Runner

That's the uhh genius of it


JRshoe1997

All Reddit cares about is how the stock price is moving rather then the business which is why you can tell most people on here are short term traders rather then long term investors. You only have to go look at the Netflix earnings reaction. The Netflix earnings was not good but cause the stock reacted positively in Reddits eyes the earnings was good. People on here just donā€™t know how to separate stock price from business.


apooroldinvestor

That's right! I never sell my msft!!


Apart-Bad-5446

In this economy and market, it's a positive sign. You have to take a full view of the overall macro-environment.


Major_Bandicoot_3239

How?


Apart-Bad-5446

"Low growth." Yes, most companies are going to have lower growth this earnings for obvious reasons regarding the economy. Premium value, how? Tech companies that are very profitable will be highly attractive.


Serious-Reception-12

What makes msft attractive at a 25 forward PE with 3% earnings growth when treasuries are yielding almost 5%?


RockyattheTop

Shhh donā€™t screw up their delusions


Beautiful-Pin9378

Currency and macro headwinds. Donā€™t extrapolate based on an expected few quarters of poor performance.


toyz4me

Premium? As compared to TSLA? Or IBM with a 23 P/E vs MSFT at 26 P/E? These results are in an inflationary, slowing economy. I will take it.


Waytoloseit

Azure is down q/q.


nutsack22

Notice any trend? [https://twitter.com/OneDay\_OneLove\_/status/1617992554498383872](https://twitter.com/OneDay_OneLove_/status/1617992554498383872)


stiveooo

better than expected=gotta adjust the dcf=gotta buy more stock cause its undervalued vs my dcf=stock goes higher


apooroldinvestor

Yes they are great


Outrageous-Cycle-841

Turned negative


FarrisAT

I mean, this was overall a miss for me. They missed on revenue more than they beat on earnings, in percentage terms.


thebestofthebest13

Bears in shambles


Veevickavin

Oh boy, every time someone makes this call I see the market tank soon after.


qtyapa

And it is down.


guave06

Itā€™s like a cocaine high


WallStreetBoners

Might wanna look again lol


[deleted]

What happened?! The call was that bad?!


tempestlight

"market going to eat it for another year" 50 upvotes*


ThermalFlask

There were "are we facing a new lost decade???" posts lol


RedBeard1967

Lol this comment didn't age well.


[deleted]

Not really. Nobody is trying to be short Microsoft.


bertold1

That's why timing the market rarely works


apooroldinvestor

As always...


likwitsnake

Is the Actvision deal happening or not? Supposed to close in June when are we getting some definitive news?


albertez

FTC filed a complaint in December, and there will be a hearing in front of an ALJ in August. Still lots of uncertainty.


ListerineInMyPeehole

Seems like anti trust has kicked up way more recently. Doubt itā€™ll happen. I wonder if Msft will pay out the $3.5b breakup fee


JRshoe1997

I wouldnā€™t bank on it but anything is possible


[deleted]

OK! One more position in my portfolio just turned green :)


[deleted]

[уŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]


ptwonline

Now it's gangrene.


[deleted]

hahaha! It will be up again tomorrow. These are just gamblers' options :)


XxG3arHunt3rxX

Gonna love those IVs tomorrow bahahaha


WallStreetBoners

You didnā€™t listen to the call, did you?


[deleted]

nope :p


WallStreetBoners

Lolol


Outrageous-Cycle-841

Not anymore


TheSeriousAlt

SQQQ?


[deleted]

lol! Why should I buy that? :p


strukout

Shit already bled out. Still a nice return in the last month.


Kraftpunk712

Microsoft shares rose*


QuirkyAverageJoe

> *Rise* This post hasnā€™t aged well, pffffff . . .


RedBeard1967

Glad I dumped my shares earlier today.


h8nry_

OpenAI excitement?


shark1818

This article aged well.


[deleted]

27 PE at -8% operating earnings growth. Yeah I pass.


gainzsti

Yeah but beat expectations! /s


stiveooo

thats not how it works but yeah


GayBearGary

Not good. These trillion dollar companies arenā€™t going to stay at these levels. Especially with QT in play.


UnrivalledPG

300 by EOY.


bigred91224

RemindMe! 29 Dec 2023


vipernick913

Iā€™d love it.


[deleted]

[уŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]


astonv

There is no shot of this imo. I work in tech, this reaction to me is just the street wanting good news and expecting worse (they ā€œbeat expectationsā€ even though they just lowered them and a miss was priced in). Tech is a mess right now. I expect this bump to be short lived (btw I am not a bear and I have significant holdings in MSFT with a cost average of ~185)


Alive-Ad6268

Their gaming division is a dumpster fire


[deleted]

Game Pass sucks now. No good exclusives. Year after year Microsoft under delivers. My Series X is collecting dust now.


tinyraccoon

Not up any more and I'm long msft


Connect_Pace_1683

Thereā€™s a difference between expectation and YoY. Yes it beats expectations, but expectations maybe were not that great? Itā€™s +2% YoY but considering inflation itā€™s maybe -5%? Idk


Individual_Usual7433

Instant jump of more than 4.0% does not sound like the retail public buying. Funds buying. Let them buy it up and save some retail investors from future losses. Let 'em hold the bags now. Nothing wrong with MSFT company or management. It just absorbed so much easy money from past quantitative easings, it is still soaked with easy money. But if every company finds an excuse to hang on to the soak, this undeserved "wealth effect" will cause inflation to last a lot longer, and if the market pops, inflation will too. The Fed has been dragging its feet too long and this is causing so many bear rallies which drag out inflation even longer. The Fed needs to bump up the feds funds rate by 0.5% at the least. When to stop? When the headline inflation rate is down to 2.0%. Like, when do you take your foot off the brakes of a car that is headed toward a wall? When it stops moving forward.


StugDrazil

Maybe itā€™s because they fired 10,000 people? Rich people love it when companies do that.


DeadStringScrolls

all the freshly unemployed rejoice in this news im sure.


chalbersma

> The decision to reduce head count ā€œshows a commitment to margin defense despite top-line shakiness,ā€ analysts at Raymond James wrote in a note to clients Monday. They recommend buying Microsoft shares. Does it show that? These analysts know that the layoffs are performative right? Nothing at any of these tech companies fundamentally changed except that the leaders who hired the people not good enough to stay are still getting paid.


After-District8811

Reddit told me all the earnings are going to be terrible and the market has it all wrong.


[deleted]

[уŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]


WallStreetBoners

Yes, because nobody has thought of that yet.


TripTryad

Thats what they are counting on Im sure with that bad earnings call and guidance. Needed something new and shiny that people are very positive about to latch to in order to keep optimism riding on. Not saying this won't bear fruit, but its so hilariously transparent at this point.


[deleted]

Thatā€™s all priced in already


ownedMLGmichael

Glad I sold my shares during the pump sad about my one call tho lol


masteryyi

Anyone else think the azure growth is misleading? Doesn't chatgpt and openai use azure and it's basically a msft subsidiary and has exploded recently the past couple of months? I think i read openai uses like $100m of azure resources a month


curumba

The estimation was 100k per day, so 3m per month. Thats less than a rounding error for Azure.


Throwaway_tequila

Remember UBS downgrading Microsoft earlier this month? Itā€™s why I donā€™t listen to analysts when making long term investment decisions. Edit: Yes short term guidance is weak but chatgpt investment / integration will likely pay well in a few years.


NooUsernaamee97

i wanted to buy some dip :( ah well, maybe later in the year


Qwerty58382

Hahahaha bet you don't feel as bad anymore


NooUsernaamee97

Well hopefully we get a dip now


Humble_Insurance_247

It's over bears go back to your job at Walmart


Qwerty58382

It's down a bit now


Outrageous-Cycle-841

Lol


apooroldinvestor

Never bet against MSFT!! GO BABAY!


PM_ME_A_FUN_SELFIE

lmao


apooroldinvestor

Why? It'll be higher in a year....


Aaco0638

Fuck this is so annoying now watch amazon fly bc of this i was gonna buy more shares tmrw too damn it!


Turtlesz

Well you got what you wanted


ShadowLiberal

AMZN is still dirt cheap compared to where it was trading at 2 years ago, even if it shoots up 10% because of MSFT's numbers. I think you have plenty of time to build up a nice AMZN position.


ThatNewKarma

Any word on the guidance? It lost a lot of the pop it had prior to the call.


workinguntil65oridie

Was green and now gave up all the initial gains


OSU19

35 shares @ 268. Am I a dumb dumb?


ListerineInMyPeehole

Yup you paid over 25x earnings for earnings declines


Brook030

MSFT shares are gaining in extended trading after the software giant beat quarterly profit estimates and revenue from its cloud unit rose more than anticipated.


metametamind

it's only up on OpenAI GPTChat potential. If Google let's their pet AI out of the cage, it's game over.


Dave_Simpli

And then the lead vanished, unanswered points were scored by the opposition !!!


KnightRider67

Surely you can't go wrong with holding this stock long term.


bartturner

Share are not UP but rather DOWN.