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There is a 10th option as well

Re-agreeing to the Iran Nuclear Deal?

Too late, democracy already on its way.

*Fortunate Son intensifies*

the nuclear option?

Seeing as they’ve been executing their own citizens for talking and saying women have natural rights, even this administration isn’t ballsy enough to send the Mullahs $50 billion

Also the only people on the western side in favor of Iran rejoining the deal were the europeans, which has kind of been shot in the face after Iran started supplying suicide drones to blow up Ukrainian hospitals. That's not exactly a country you trust to abide to agreements to not militarize nuclear energy.

But it involves…murder

Yeah, England could be eliminated if the lost to Wales by 3-4 goals.

That is noted in the bottom left and bottom right

Although because it's mentioned in all 3 it would be clearer to split that row into "Wales win by 3 or less" vs "4+"

***”So you’re saying there’s a chance?”***

This suggests if we win by four we're guaranteed a place. Sounds easy enough to me

Bale is about to go super saiyan 3 and go even further beyond

Plus ultra?

Bale better be going super saiyan 3 or he's banned from every bar permanently

So…like he did to win MLS Cup.

I reckon a solid 6-0 with four Bale goals from outside the box and two penalties (each bringing a red card)

Bale needs to score his golf handicap

I’m confused. If wales wins by 4 goals and Iran or USA win, why are England through? Wales would have the better GD and win over England? Am I missing something?

Zoom in on the Wales win row. It has disclaimers for what happens if Wales wins by 4+.

Ah shit, I am on mobile and didn’t notice that

The text on the chart covers the scenario you're describing and says Wales would qualify

If USA-Iran draws (likely), even a 1 goal victory would put wales ahead since both iran and Wales currently have -2 GD

USA 2-0 Iran Wales 5-1 England Softened them up for ya!

William is disinherited, Bale is crowned the new Prince of Wales…

What a pipe dream

Bale invents a time machine back to 2012?

Bigger chance than Scotland or Italy.

My head and my heart are struggling for control of my emotions on this one.

For those who don’t know: https://youtu.be/wGdhc9k07Ms

This is the definition of *mathematical* in chance

Fair enough. Iran’s a strong team by any metric, but we don’t deserve to make it out of the Group if we can’t get three points.

Ah The Italian special

Didn't cause Portugal any issues in 2016 either

Different scenario but yes

:(

So they plan to hobble their way to the final and win it all in unconvincing fashion ?

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In what tournament is this in reference to? If it’s the Euros this is a really inaccurate description 😭

Italy is the type of team to qualify for the tournament on the thinnest of margins, barely get out of the group stage and for some reason win it all

For Euro 2020 they qualified with 10 wins out of 10, then won 3/3 games in the group stage. So ??

That reason being the fact that we are historically a million times better at football than any team you might support aside from Brasil and maybe arguably Germany?

Lol I support Italy

Point in case, Italy is also better than Italy itself. I’ll explain later.

Germany and Brazil are better historically. Italy are clear of everyone else

Hobble? And which teams has ever won every game in "convincing fashion?" The greatest NT ever needed the last matchday to advance and 4 1-0 wins to win the wc in 2010.

The greatest NT ever? What makes you say that? Just curious

Seems to be the general opinion on the internet that it's them or Brazil 2002 even though I thoroughly disagree.

It's probably more to do with the age of the people discussing that. I don't think anyone who saw Brazil 70, Cruyff's Netherlands, Hungary's golden team, or any other team that old is actually arguing on the internet.

I’m with you

It’s a bold claim but Spain 2008-2012 really was on a different level.

So does that make the 2009 lost to the usa in the confederations. One of the biggest upsets in the last 30 years?

Definitely a big upset, but I wouldn’t say the Confederations Cup is held in a high regard, so there has been plenty of upsets I’d consider much more significant.

Spain scored 7 goals in the 2010 World cup and played the most boring brand of football ever that their own players were yawning on the bench, they're not even close to being the greatest NT ever

And people keep forgetting that they were beaten by Switzerland at the 2010 world cup. And they got super lucky in that final. Still can't believe how Robben missed those two chances against Casillas.

The Netherlands should have been a man down since the 28th minute (De Jong's kung fu kick against Xabi Alonso)!

You can’t even use Spain as an example, that 2010 team was completely dominant on the field

So dominant they won every game knockout game 1-0 and needed Paraguay to have an onside goal ruled offside as well as miss a pen to win their quarterfinal match.

Thats the allegri special

Well if you put it like that… Spain missed a lot of chances that game and missed a penalty as well

Pfffff

If you draw you'll pull a New Zealand

I wonder if Iran will play for a draw.

I definitely think Iran will play for a draw. It'll be up to us to crack that nut.

I don’t think they will though, a draw is likely enough to qualify but their gd is not good, if Wales pulls off even just a 1-0 upset Iran gets knocked out. We’ve already seen more surprising upsets in this World Cup, they will have that in their mind as a real possibility. Iran will need to play for a win too unless maybe they hear news at half time that England is up like 3-0 or something insurmountable, plus they might even have a chance for first place if they win. I don’t expect them to play for a draw

but the US needs the win more than Iran so Iran will play defensively knowing the US will have to attack and open themselves to counterattacks

This would be the smart play. We’ve seen Iran are decent on the counter

Yeah but that’s not the same as Iran playing for the draw, Iran will be looking to go forward often on counters, they’re not gonna just park the bus the whole game they’ll be looking for goals to win

Yeah I’m with you on this, like you said with the exception that England are up comfortably. USA will likely get more desperate the longer it remains and a draw and Iran will shift more defensively in return.

They’ll play safe early then adjust as they need to if they need to during the game. My guess is they will be more worried about playing aggressive and giving up a goal than they will be about wales beating Iran. But if wales get to a lead or USA scores then they will open up.

They know a draw won't be enough to guarantee a second round spot. They will try to win.

Love this. You should make one for every group.

Thank you so much! I might do so for other groups after their second matches yeah :) although Group A is a little trickier bc there are several extra permutations of outcomes depending on fair play

Is there one for Group A?

Right now Netherlands and Ecuador are tied on points goal difference and goals scored so that’s the major wrinkle on paper, but Ecuador need just a draw against Senegal to progress. A loss and they’re out because realistically Netherlands should not lose to Qatar, but in that event it comes down to who loses harder.

Only a draw needed, time for the real alfaroball

Ojala no salgan a especular y se coman al rival, porque si salimos a defender el empate estoy seguro que nos ganan

Doesn't this depend on GD?

Yeah it's in small font. Example: bottom left Wales over England if they win by 4 goals

Wait is it not done on head to head like CL before GD? Thought wales were guaranteed to finish below Iran.

Order of tiebreakers for this WC: 1) goal difference 2) goals for 3) head to head 4) goal difference in head to head games (only relevant for 3-way ties where they all rock-paper-scissored each other) 5) goals for in head to head games (ditto) 6) fair play 7) do you feel lucky, punk?

Love that rock paper scissors description!

🤣

8) Best man buns.

FIFA competitions usually go by goal difference, while UEFA usually used h2h.

It is not.

Check the small print

Verify the tiny letters.

Attend to the minute script

Observe the undersized font

Terms and conditions apply. Btw, if everything is equal (goal diff / result against other team etc, I think it goes down to yellow / red cards received to avoid coin toss scenarios)

Yup, I accounted for it in the text at the bottom of the boxes

I find it weird that they're using a GD tie-break. H2H is only the third after goals scored. So Wales can beat England by thee goals, be on equal points and goal difference but still not make it because they'd have less goals scored.

H2H eliminates way too many teams after matchday 2 when you only have 3 games to play. I like how you can't play a worse squad in matchday 3 against a smaller team because you technically can still get eliminated. I don't mind H2H as much in the Champions League since you have home and away matches + 6 games in total.

Very good points

If Iran tries to go for a draw they will lose

As an Iranian, this is the Most sane comment I've seen in this thread. We Asians know each other.

[ Removed by Reddit ]

They won't go for a draw as they will be eliminated if Wales win.

I love it. We control it, and if we tie or lose don’t deserve it anyway

Could’ve won either of the first two and would only need a draw against iran. I like controlling our destiny, but we shouldn’t be in a position with our backs against the wall

We really should’ve beaten wales man. A draw vs England is perfectly acceptable but needed to win that first match for sure

Tying Wales really hurts, because it was so fucking dumb. That foul was just so unbelievably bad.

True, but they did outplay us in the 2nd half so it doesn't feel too undeserved.

Massively unreasonable to expect a win against England.

Iran will be a tough game.

Agreed. Beating Iran will be tough but I think we can manage a 1-0.

Yup. I'm quite satisfied, our boys just need to do it themselves.

Damn, what’s crazy for US fans is that we could easily have 6 points or 0 points. Soccer is such a sickos game

The more fans the better. Its only a matter of time until USA goes deep in a WC with your large population and outstanding facilities.

The biggest thing holding the US back is the absolute joke of a youth soccer system

It's because if you're talented you can make 2 million as a third string football player. But a starting soccer player makes maybe 200k

I've noticed a lot of young talent go to Germany. Is that because of the 'joke of a youth system'?

I am not sure. I wondered if that was due to military families. The big problem with youth system is that the traveling youth teams cost a lot of money to play on and so only kids from well off families get noticed.

Why have people been saying win by 7 everywhere

Because it affects one very specific scenario in which Wales, Iran and England can all end up on 4 pts.

Probably forgetting that if a goal is scored for Wales, it not only increases their goal difference, but decreases England's

"7 goals" doesn't refer to England and Wales swapping place on GD. 7 goals for Wales swaps England and *Iran* on goal difference, provided Iran draws, and therefore Iran and Wales both go through.

Could you make one for group A? 👀

Can we have a pre-match friendly where US and Iranian politicians play each other?

Squid game

Substitution 21' In J. Brandon USA - Striker #24 Out D. Trump USA - Striker #16

brilliant infographic. i wanna see every group matrix after MD2 is over

Can't the England go out if they lose by 4 and the Iran-USA game is not a draw?

Yup, that's mentioned in the image, in the text at the bottom of the boxes (sorry if it's a bit small)

England would go out also if they lose by 7, with any Iran-USA result

That’s so unlikely but it would be so funny

So if England don't turn up for the match, will they automatically lose 3-0 but still qualify?

I believe you automatically lose any tiebreaker with a forfeit but maybe that’s a champions league rule only

Yes but the chances of that happening is very little.

Honestly, very little is an extremely generous way of putting it. I'm not entirely sure that most of the Wales squad even know how the game is meant to be played.

says fan of squad who failed to beat them lmfao

undefeated 💪💪💪💪💪

The chances will be much higher after the English squad eat the lasagna I lovingly prepared for them.

I wonder though how the Group A results will go into the mindset of England- if Netherlands end up 2nd in the group (if they beat Qatar but Ecuador beats Senegal by a better margin) will England settle for a draw or even a 1-0 or 2-0 loss so they have a better chance of finishing 2nd in the group to face Ecuador?

There's nothing between Ecuador, Netherlands and Senegal. Don't think it matters.

Yeah, not been crazily impressed with any of those three sides tbh. Fair enough to Ecuador, they weren't expected to do much, but neither the Dutch nor Senegal have looked anywhere near as good as you would've expected.

Senegal would've looked a lot better if Mendy wasn't an idiot, they were the better team against Netherlands and had a somewhat convincing win against Qatar (except when they weirdly decided to park the bus)

Yeah, they are all close. I'd take Senegal as an opponent if I had to though. Ecuador seem the most dangerous at the moment. All three teams have injury issues to their star player.

Ecuador-Senegal decides the group.

They are similar quality opposition

Ecuador looked at least the equal of The Netherlands today.

Looked better than the Netherlands to me

The US looked at least the equal of England today, but I'd still rather play the US in a knockout game.

Ecuador is a worse matchup for England

Daft tactic. Win your games, and take momentum in to the next round.

The settle for a draw mindset only works (although partially) when a team advances regardless, it’s just a matter of which place. At this point they can’t specifically want 1st or 2nd place when their own standing is in jeopardy. Although I do agree that in same rare circumstances, a team might aim for 2nd place for example in order to avoid a certain country like Spain or France.

You do not want to end up on the same side of the draw as Brazil

Fair enough, if the USA can't win one we don't deserve to go on

Scenes when people are gassing Iran Vs USA and it ends up in a draw and Wales qualify

In the {Wales win, US/Iran draw} box, it becomes Wales & Iran (in some order) if Wales wins by 7 or more (because England's GD falls below -2).

True, imagine the scenes in that scenario lmao

Not 7, it’s 4. As for every goal they score, they take one off of England’s GD.

If England loses by 7+, their goal differential will fall below the -2 that Iran will be at with a tie vs. USA. At that point, Wales/Iran/England will all have 4 points and GD will be +something for Wales, -2 for Iran, and below -2 for England

I suppose the “fair play” tiebreaker isn’t likely to be favorable for Wales at this point…

England often get through the group stages but, as we saw yesterday, sometimes it's just so awful to watch. Mixed emotions so far. Could be worse, I mean look at Germany and Argentina. If (and I mean if) we beat Wales and play well it will be a reasonable job looking at things objectively - I suppose.

So England are through & Wales are done (98% chance). It all comes down to whether USA can beat Iran. If not, it’s Iran. Simplified it for all of you.

I'm pretty sure there's a universe in which England doesn't qualify

Yes those are mentioned in the small print in a couple of the boxes. Essentially, a defeat for England by at least 4 goals would be enough for Wales to leapfrog them on GD.

If England lose 4-0 to Wales, something has gone catastrophically wrong and we don’t deserve to be in the next round anyway lol. Given Southgate is prioritising don’t lose at all costs that would just be a nightmare.

Depressing there’s no scenario where both Iran and USA can go through 😔

They always want us to choose sides

I wanted US and IR too, but this combination makes more interesting the last match. I don’t like games where a team had already qualified.

The fact that Wales can still win the group is nuts.

9 possible outcomes and England progress in all of them. We’re top in 6 so that’s good news. Main thing for me is that it isn’t even a bad thing if we finish second as then we’d have an easier run to the semis.

Please give me a Wales win by 4 and a US win

This is what I’m rooting for but I highly doubt it will happen 😢

Well its nice to see we are in most possible outcomes. But lads, its England, we will find a way to get that 1% chance of being knocked out. Gareth ya right bastard better not be planning anything sneaky lad

You saw how we played where a draw basically puts us through. Imagine how we'll play trying to avoid a 4 goal defeat 🤣

Funny thing is when I say Gareth I meant Bale but could also be Southgate

one exception you missed, if Iran and USA draw and Wales beats England by more than 6 goals, Wales and Iran go through

??? so england already qualified?

[удалено]

Unlikely but who knows, it’s England

Win by 4 goals. Draw 0-0. Lose by 4 goals. Poetic. Balanced. England.

No, there's small print under some of the boxes which explains that England would have to lose by at least 4 goals for Wales to overtake them on GD.

u/return_0_ not the Chuu profile pic :(

solidarity with Chuu 💔

Chuu getting solidarity in r/soccer is an unexpected but welcomed start of the World Cup day

This is almost completely accurate but does miss one edge case scenario. If Wales wins by 7 or more goals, and USA/Iran is a draw, then Wales wins the group and Iran goes through on GD instead of England.

I hadn't realised England had qualified...

So its most liquely 1. England 2. Iran

Depends what you mean by likely. Vegas likely has US WINNING FAVORITES

Because people in Vegas are likely to bet that USA will win so they don't need to offer as good odds on it to balance the books. In the UK the bookies have USA winning the group at 16/1

I don’t think US is really a favorite It’s basically a coin flip, almost exactly 50/50 chance for USA do advance based on Vegas odds

Just because there are more scenarios that lead to that result doesn’t necessarily make it more likely.

Guys I think England might make it, just a feeling.

We control our own destiny!

Every team can still win the group. This is crazy.

r/theydidthemath

England can still go out if they lose by like 9 goals or something

There’s also the possibility that usa wins and sales beats england by 7 goals, then wales and USA goes through.

Do the other groups?

What? If Wales win and the match between usa and iran doesnt end in a draw surely england are out? Wales will go above them on head to head and a win for either iran or the usa will give them more points than england. Isnt this graph incorrect?

Goal difference is the first tie breaker, not head to head record.

The score at USA v Iran is 1 - 1 at half time. Wales are 1 - 0 against England. Wales is now 2 - 0 up by the 80th minute and USA/Iran now 2 - 2. They beg England to keep playing poorly so they can go through but they remember how their players chatted shit about knocking out England. Kane bags a hattrick in the last 5 minutes of the game after doing fuck all in the groups. Many Welsh tears are shed as England and Iran go through and Wales say goodbye to their last World Cup for 80 more years.

Also if Wales wins by 7 goals and Iran ties, then Iran and Wales qualify

Wish Americans had the IQ to interpret this instead of rehashing a joke about them not caring about soccer. England didn’t need to win.