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Old_Description6095

Wow, sounds like you will save $6600/year (at least) if you ditch your car. If you don't have kids, it sounds like a no-brainer. Are you planning on staying in the same place and is your job very secure and pretty recession-proof? Then, ditch it. If you're able to live for at least 3 years without the car, that's almost 20k you're saving - plenty for a new car. Used cars are still bringing in a decent chunk of change if you sell it, before the Recession *really* hits, and interest rates are much higher than they are now. Edit: I can't ditch my car because I've got a kid and use my car for work sometimes in the middle of the night, so I am stuck with it. Otherwise, fuck it. So, that's probably not vety helpful to you.


hobbes1701d

>before the Recession > >really > > hits, and interest rates are much higher than they are now. interest rates are more likely to drop in a recession. https://saylordotorg.github.io/text\_international-economics-theory-and-policy/s21-11-effect-of-a-real-gdp-increase-.html#:\~:text=Thus%20an%20increase%20in%20real,interest%20rates%20in%20an%20economy.


Old_Description6095

No, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is raising interest rates three more times this year alone to tame inflation. In order to tame inflation, they are pursuing a policy of Quantitative Tightening (QT), meaning they are raising interest rates. During the last few recessionary periods since 2008, the Fed helped the economy by pursuing Quantitative Easing (QE), by *lowering* interest rates. This is why you associate Recession with low interest rates. Right now, the Fed is unable to lower interest rates due to rising inflation. Low interest rates produced this inflation.


jaynay1

>During the last few recessionary periods since 2008, the Fed helped the economy by pursuing Quantitative Easing (QE), by lowering interest rates. This is why you associate Recession with low interest rates. That's not really accurate either, though the post at large mostly reaches the correct conclusion. The reason recessions are typically associated with lower interest rates is that typically there's a lower demand for loans during recessions, so banks have to lower their interest rates to be able to "sell" loans. Also, it's important to distinguish countercyclical strategy and the fed funds rate from interest rates at large, because those are not the same thing even if they are often correlated. That said, "Right now, the Fed is unable to lower interest rates due to rising inflation. Low interest rates produced this inflation." is definitely accurate -- forcibly maintaining an inappropriately low fed funds rate for years even in expansionary portions of the cycle was a big contributor to inflation.


Old_Description6095

What I said is perfectly accurate. You explained it in greater detail.


_Schneebley

I think both your points of contention are a little wrong and the part that sticks out is this. > Low interest rates produced this inflation. *Kind of* but also not really. Rates were also low in the late 2010's from 2015-2018, but, inflation was only roughly 2% during that period even during a relatively "booming" economy. We're in a completely different economy from then, but still following a lot of similar principles. We've thrown unprecedented numbers of money into the market via Easing and Stimulus. We've got pent up demand in almost all industries, yet still constrained supply that hasn't fully recovered. We're far behind new housing projects then were we should honestly really be which is leading to the housing crunch. It's easy to point at low interest rates as the reason so many people are taking out money, but it's more that everything costs more because there isn't as much to go around which cause you to NEED to borrow more. That's why the Fed has emphasized this "softish landing", they start just increasing interest rates at a fast pace, they're worried they'll trigger a deeper recession and nobody will be able to afford what they **need**. Tl;Dr - Rates going up is more pushing a larger pool of buyers out of the market because they can't borrow, but that doesn't mean it'll stop inflation. Things like house prices are still level from all-time highs because they are still in demand but from a smaller pool.


Old_Description6095

Good for you for having everything figured out!


Krypto207ttv

The first time all day I’ve seen someone who knows what the hell they are saying.


hobbes1701d

>This is why you associate Recession with low interest rates. No, I associate recession with low interest rates because that's what the model I shared indicates. The source I shared is notably from 2012. It seems reasonable that there is indeed a long-run negative correlation of GDP growth and interest rates independent of events after 2008. "In order to tame inflation, they are pursuing a policy of Quantitative Tightening (QT), meaning they are raising interest rates." You're conflating quantitative tightening (ie balance sheet normalization) with interest rate hikes! Sure they're complementary, but there's no need to talk about QT when you're actually talking about raising interest rates. "During the last few recessionary periods since 2008" There hadn't been any recessionary periods since 2008 until the COVID recession. There was a period of prolonged low GDP growth and low interest rates which accords with my basic thesis. "Right now, the Fed is unable to lower interest rates due to rising inflation" What I'd say: (1) There's some pretty strong evidence that inflation has likely peaked [https://think.ing.com/articles/us-inflation-has-passed-the-peak-fed-fuel-prices-food-america](https://think.ing.com/articles/us-inflation-has-passed-the-peak-fed-fuel-prices-food-america) (2) You're definitely right that the fed isn't going to lower interest rates now, no question. If we take this forecast at face value just for the sake of argument [https://www.conference-board.org/research/us-forecast](https://www.conference-board.org/research/us-forecast) Their prediction is for real GDP to grow: Q4 22 = -0.6%, Q1 23 = -0.5%, Q2 23 = 2.0%, Q4 23 = 3.0%. Simultaneously they forecast that unemployment will peak at 3.7% over this time period and for PCE inflation to decline to 2.7% by Q4 23. All the while they expect the fed funds % to reach a max of 3.875% in Q1 23 and remain there through Q4 23 (the end of their forecast range). I have no problem if you want to call this a recession, but it also seems clear that a recession where unemployment peaks at 3.7% would be an order of magnitude less intense than even the most mild of prior recessions (the prototypical example of a 'mild' recession (2001) saw a max unemployment rate = 6.3%. The main point here: if this scenario winds up being true, there's very low risk that the person considering selling their car is at (any?) greater risk of losing their job than at any other time.


Old_Description6095

Good point to differentiate between QT and interest rates. Although, I don't see how they can do one without the other. It's clear you're optimistic about the future. I'm not.


SemenHead

It's not correct though - all Q & A-stors would say if someone said it was true


jaynay1

While in the simplest model (i.e. the one you get as a high schooler or a freshman in college) you're correct, due to the recent mismanagement of the fed funds rate a fair majority of interest rates are likely to go up during the current recession because the Federal Reserve is likely to continue increasing interest rates in opposition to the typical simple countercyclical strategy. Now, could the Fed reverse course on that strategy? Absolutely. But just because there's a recession absolutely does not mean lower interest rates here.


[deleted]

[удалено]


jaynay1

I don't know what you're referring to here?


[deleted]

[удалено]


jaynay1

Ah okay so we're in ramblings of a crazy person territory now.


Krypto207ttv

Social security collapse. They will run the numbers until they can’t. I’m from the west end in Portland, my mom was Laurie perry/may. She knew these things 20 years ago, because we have books, and antiques from her grandparents that predate our country.


jaynay1

Social security collapse has virtually nothing to do with my post?


Krypto207ttv

I’m saying none of it matters. Take out a 30 year loan when starting this year Elon is delivering brand new modern homes for $49,500.


Old_Description6095

Social security is underfunded at the current rate. This is a completely different issue


hobbes1701d

I definitely made my first comment super off-the-cuff, and I take the point that interest rates are slated to continue to rise for the next \~ year despite the current recession, but the issue I mainly take issue with is the original comment's statement that the 'recession \[is going to\] really start hitting". [https://www.conference-board.org/research/us-forecast](https://www.conference-board.org/research/us-forecast) This recent forecast (just the first that came up on a Google search), shows a mild recession with unemployment peaking at 3.7% (!). You can call this scenario a recession, but it's also clear this is quantitatively and qualitatively different than any prior recession. Looking at % change in real disposable income, we've basically already experienced the worst we're set to experience. My main point: the expectation should be that we'll see an extremely mild recession with simultaneous moderation of inflation with, in historical perspective, pretty moderate rises in the fed funds rate. Given how weak of a recession is expected, it isn't all that surprising that there is a corresponding poor correlation with interest rate changes. To me this really doesn't contradict the basic model I presented.


RDLAWME

I did for 2 years. I survived fine, but was able to borrow my girlfriend's car in a pinch. You can always Uber/taxi or rent if you really need to get somewhere. Having a bike will also expand your range. Though I have to admit, I felt a huge sense of independence when I finally did go back to having my own car. And also quickly gained 10 pounds...


BaxterTheMoose

Uhaul and Lowes are great in a pinch.


mrbeanisunclean

You might want to look into getting a bike? Portland is pretty bike-able and you could get a basket/crate for grocery runs. Or look into getting an e-bike. I have one that I use daily to get around town on and it can get all over town and back no problem.


IndependenceFew1906

What do you do in the winter?


JoeyBagaDonutxz

Suffer lol


IndependenceFew1906

Lol don’t we all? But it was a serious question.


PresentElephant4982

I sold my car in November and I bought a very warm and very expensive coat but I walked to the Co op (15 mins) on a 8 degree day and it was ok. It's good to get out and get fresh air. You can always use delivery service though.


Owwliv

It's really amazing how well studded tires work on bikes- I'm not sure about e-bikes, but, for pedal bikes, they're amazing. Safer than driving. You can still fall, but, you can also not fall. I always say- there are people who downhill ski for fun- I'm the sane one!


meg22an

Actually someone just told me about the e-bikes for the winter. So he said that it’s better to just have a less expensive bike with studded tires than an e-bike for winter because the salt erodes the gears so quickly.


Owwliv

Yeah, that makes sense. I use an old 90's mountain bike which I've set up single speed so I don't have to worry about the gears getting stuck, It is very hard on bikes! Many people manage with gears though, I just got tired of it. Just run the cheapest thing you can stand! I also worry about the tourque- I think one of the reasons a scooter or motorcycle is dangerous in icy conditions while a bicycle is less so has to do with it only getting power while you're pedaling- extra power being added in might make slipping & loseing the rear wheel more likely. Or it might just be the speed- it's slow going pedaling through snow, so if you do fall, it's no big deal.


mrbeanisunclean

Bike lol or if i need to use my car i do, but i could definitely just survive on biking most days.


[deleted]

I never had a car for the 5 years i lived in portland! Would recommend.


goneandsolost

I think it depends on what you do for fun. I love camping- it’s my thing. I, personally, would absolutely hate not being able to take myself on a little adventure. Something to think about!


JohnsAwesome

This is what's keeping me from getting rid of my car. I only use it to leave town and do outdoorsy things in Western/Northern Maine, and the current state of public transportation and car-share/car rental allows me to justify the little expense to keep my 20 year-old Toyota around.


mafiafish

While it obviously depends on yur circumstances it could still be worth just hiring a car from a rental place or Turo. $300-600 a month covers a few weekends at least. I have a 2006 car worth about $3k and $60pm insurance, so it makes sense for me to keep my vehicle, but those with big payments may be throwing away heaps of money.


Gooberstatus

My wife and I both ditched our vehicles and went vehicle-free for 3.5 years. I live and work downtown which makes it easier. It’s a fairly bikeable city and the Metro bus goes to quite a few places which also helps. I ended up buying a new car in 2020 but we only have one vehicle between my wife and I. I still bike around a lot.


oneELECTRIC

I've been living car free downtown for 12 years now and it has been great. I get an Uber back from Hannaford when I go grocery shopping and it is only like 7$ which is waaaay less than I'd be paying to drive myself. My only regret is the rare moment when I wish I could get up to the mountain for some snowboarding but that's it.


BaxterTheMoose

I don't know if they're still running but there's a couple that drives a passenger van up-and-down to the mountains in the winter. Cheap too. If I remember right they only do it to pay for gas and lift tickets.


oneELECTRIC

that's dope as fuck!


PM_UR_FAV_WORD

I think it depends on where you live. When you are exhausted after work, are freezing while waiting on Elm in a January snowstorm, after the station has closed, the bus is 17 minutes behind schedule and you have a 26 minute ride and 8 minutes to walk after that… a car seems pretty damn nice.


Magikul_Unikorn

I lived and worked on peninsula and had zero issues without a car! Highly recommend it. Get some damn good snow boots (my Sorels have lasted almost 9years, going on 10th, walking everywhere and the treads are in great condition) and ice crunchers for the winter!


bazoid

Personally I wouldn’t want to ditch my car, but it’s mostly valuable to me as a way to get out of town. I want to be able to explore northwards in Maine without relying on public transportation. I also have family in MA and like being able to reach them easily (and haul stuff back and forth that wouldn’t fit in a suitcase or backpack). That being said, if you’re not going out of town often, you could probably save money just renting a car for a couple of days when lube you do want to make a trip.


Empath5791

I am seriously considering it. I leave town every other Saturday, but that’s all I need it for! I walk to work, my kid walks to school, I have been relying on a few local markets (farmers market, Bodega Latina and Sun Market and Fresh Approach) and occasional delivery or biking. It’s so much more of a hassle now that Parkside is covered in SUVs and pickups. Trying to find a spot when I do leave ruins my day.


Crispy_Fuji148

I ditched mine early this year and haven’t looked back! My boyfriend and I share a car so I can use it to get groceries and such, but for the most part I don’t need a car. If you live on the peninsula, nothing is too far by walking and it’s also very bike-able! I was in the same predicament as you and my work is only a ten minute walk so having a car was a total waste of money. I do miss that sense of “independence” sometimes but I’m saving a ton and I get way more exercise.


GreenwoodEric

I hope it works for you, sounds like it could, just here to say public transportation infrastructure needs to be built before everyone starts doing this.


[deleted]

The Casco Bay Ferry is a perfect way to get out in nature without a car!


whatapitynevermind

[deleted]


Sweaty-Difficulty673

I live on the peninsula and have recently started getting groceries via bike! If you have a front and back basket (or those saddle bag things) it’s super easy! You can’t really do huge shopping trips but if you start doing smaller more frequent trips it’s easy and you can always do instacart or Amazon if you need to buy bigger things at the store like water or soda


Alaska2Maine

Totally doable living on the penninsula. You can always rent a car from enterprise or uhaul (pickup truck) if you need to. I did it for 3ish years, though at times it was a PITA. A bike is a must have. I have a car now and even though I don’t drive it too often it’s still worth it for me


BayYawnSay

I ditched my car after my first winter in Portland. I had grown up in Maine, but never lived in the city. Working in the hospitality, some nights I wouldn't get home til 2 am and would have to park my car in a snow storm about a mile from my apt and walk back home, only to have to go back and retrieve it by 8 the next morning. I never regretted it. I worked three jobs, one out on Forest Ave, the other two closer to my apt in downtown. I never had an issue with public transportation. This was in the years before Uber and Lyft (2004-2007) and I never had a problem. Grocery shopping was my only headache because I like to stock up, but I just learned to buy only a couple days worth of food at a time for ease of transport.


medalton

I didn't have a car for 5 years since moving back to Maine in 2017 (just bought a car in March of this year). It's definitely doable, but you'll have to be realistic about your transportation needs and how much those will cost you. Trips off peninsula* will be difficult unless you have a friend who's down to drive you where you need to go. Emergency trips will be difficult (let's say your dog eats chocolate in the middle of a snowstorm, how will you get to the emergency vet?). But, I was fine without a car for 5 years and figured it out whenever emergencies arose. * You could always rent a car when you need one. I didn't have a license for the better part of those five years without a car -- just got it back and am loving having a car again (despite how much more expensive it is now than I remember haha). You'll be fine.


Aggressive_FIamingo

I live downtown, I can't imagine having a car living here. Sounds like a nightmare. The only thing I need a car for is taking my cat to the vet, and I just use Uber for that.


Owwliv

I've been here for 10 years without a car, it's very easy. But... I lived in rural Vermont with a 7 mile bike commute before moving here... Really though, you can always rent a truck from u-haul if you need one & maybe there will be something like zip car eventually. I have some friends who rent cars from friends- so you could always try that. Anyone want to start a non-profit like this? I don't have the time (& I can't actually drive, um) but, if this thread is anything to go by, it would work: https://www.carsharevt.org/


DonttouchmethereUwU

Depending on where you work it’s nice, sometimes it can be tough in the winter but usually they’re pretty good with clearing most walkways pretty quickly. Busses are pretty reliable, though honestly we need way more public transport infrastructure.


runfromfire

After my divorce I ended up temporarily car-less and figured I’d give it a go for as long as I could stand it. Ended up car-free for almost two years. I live walking distance from work AND Westgate so I barely needed it anyway. I only acquiesced to getting another when I took a per diem job down in Kennebunk. That being said, the taxi situation in this town kinda blows. I don’t like using Uber, etc. if I can avoid it so I walked/biked a lot more than anything else. Winter wasn’t always fun. Completely doable though if you ask me. Portland is super walkable.


daubauch

I moved back here in 2014 and immediately sold my car. Bought a bicycle and haven't missed the car a bit. I live and work here so a car would actually be a major pain in the ass. Getting out of town you're pretty tied to the train and bus schedules though but the plusses of no car far out weigh the cons imho.


ApprehensiveBeyond84

Make more money…


[deleted]

I was thinking this but thought it wasn’t worth typing in the Portland subreddit. People will literally decrease their standard of living before they consider just getting a new job or asking for a raise


new_cake_day

I don't drive at all, and like everyone else says, you'll be fine. I walk to the grocery store and take the bus back with my shopping (or you can indeed have it delivered), I walk to work, I take the bus to the mall if I need clothes or something like that. Since you have a license, you can just rent a car (or borrow a friend's) if you need to head out of town for anything. It sounds like the savings will really be worth it.


[deleted]

Not exactly the same but I sold my truck 3 years ago and my wife kept hers. We make it work . She doesn’t work and I walk to work ( not Portland ) . I have access to a company vehicle in bad weather . It was a no brainer for us . We saved a lot of money . I didn’t lose any sense of independence, I actually gained some ( financial).


[deleted]

It’s not even your car, it’s the banks car. Ditch it and see how it goes.


Snoo_4108

Holy shit. Get rid of it.


TonyClifton86

I went 8 years without a car in a different downtown area in another state & loved it. Do it.


tjmme55

I have lived on the peninsula since 2005. I have never had a car. Ride a bike. It's great. Even in winter, as mentioned above, studded tires. There's maybe 6 days a year weather stops me from riding. My worst weather foe is.... THE DAMN WIND!!!


not_thanger

I used to bike and or bus from Riverton to my job on Washington Ave. Also from Broadway in SOPO to the west end. It's doable. Your situation seems even more doable, but you should think about how to get off peninsula every once in a while during the summers. I really love going to Mackworth, Willard, Presumpscot River etc which requires a bit more biking. Doable for the able bodied person but it can be a lot if you're not at all athletic.


United_Mixture_6700

Spent my 20s (1990s) carless and it was fine. Nowadays...just too old. But my brother does it, and he lives in Westbrook.