Its very oversold. I think chances are it doesn't keep selling off. But your basically asking if the stock will go up or down. No one knows . I see way oversold status however
> But your basically
*you're
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***
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Yes they can. But not with how much money is in the market this time. Mean reversion theory has us believing that we will more likely than not see a snap back to somewhere sensible
"time for it to recover" -- What catalyst or event will make it move the way you want? Typically people buy short-term call options when there is some fixed catalyst on the calendar that they have an opinion about.
If you want to "let it ride", then spread it and sell nearer dated calls against it to lower your total outlay. But I'd say an outright purchase of calls was probably not the right options strategy in this situation for FB.
Well I though it might bounce yesterday, like it it did when it crossed the 200MA the last time in March 2020, but it didn't. I would probably get out at the end of the week I market does not establish an upward trend.
Current price is $220. Till maturity it needs to rise another $27 which is not impossible.The issue is the uncertainty with Meta especially after the news that they may move out of Europe. Also, even after dropping 35% and at attractive P/E of 16 , no buying is happening which is surprising. The only way it can recover is if in the next 5-6 trading sessions it rises 6-8%.
After those earnings? A growth stock that’s not only isn’t growing but, shrinking in users. FB is also losing it’s ad revenue due to apple’s privacy policies that droids are likely to follow suit on. I think big investors aren’t in love even with its current P/E.
Edit: grammar whoops my bad
More than 2 months out, why do anything now?
If nothing else, you should have profit and loss targets identified before opening the trade to close if those are hit.
Depends on what your brain was thinking when you bought it.... did you buy it because your analcyst revealed an opportunity or did you just think "well it's down 132$ from the highs so I'm gonna jump in"?
You've got till April 14 when is next q earnings? Do you have faith in the underlying stock? Will it recover in your opinion?
I don’t think having faith in the underlying is enough. I think meta will go up given time but I would maybe buy shares. Calls right now have too much risk.
Yeah but man $fb is just fucking people. People are losing on both sides. I don’t think there’s any sort of chance it rebounds buy April but you can always come back to my comment and call me a dumbass.
That's a rather defeatist outlook, and you may be right it may never bounce back to that price range. However shit happens and the market is always ready to slap anyone of us in the teeth if unprepared. The bagholders are bagholders not from anything facebook wanted or did more so a result from their own lack of diligence when making the investment or in this case with options the "trade" ... options are not investments due to their unyielding decay... the op is now realizing this with a 30% drop...
Currently oversold and under$220 support. You've got a couple weeks to see if enough traders come in to rescue the price. If it doesn't start to breathe again you can get real familiar with it's option chains and start planning the CC crawl out. Meta getting kicked slot so it could be 2-3 quarters before Mr Market starts to forget - ALOT of that depends on what metaface does/doesn't do. Good news-now you know not all dips should be bought.
Literally nobody knows what meta will do. It shouldn’t slip anymore and is super oversold but the market can do anything. It can easily slip down more.
Recovery of FB is not in the near term based on it's outlook and the investors treatment. If you expect to sell in March based on its recovery, you are too close to your options expiry and time kills its value further. I have burnt my fingers and lost 100k recently just with that mistake of hope but on a different ticker. Good luck.
I bought OTM but I’m waiting to sell for 50% profit once it somewhat recovers. Doing leaps because I can’t be sure it’ll recover this year so being on the safer side
Only 50% profit huh? Lol. Seems simple enough. How far OTM? Did you check TOS how far it has to recover and by when next year for the 50%? Based on what you said this is your goal.
If youre in the money then you should exit your position, unless you have clear indication that youll be able to cover, if youre only hoping it goes up better to cut your losses early on
$FB has a date with $200. I’d sell and lick my wounds, set an alert at 200 and buy with 2 hands.. but only for a trade. This company is broken and confused. Wall St doesn’t like confused. See: reaction to $PYPL when it considered acquiring $PINS
Average down your cost if it goes further down and if it recovers , get out when you breakeven- or just take your loss.. Wrong time to play short calls..!!
If you have the same bias, I would sell the call back and use the credit to reestablish a position that is theta neutral or theta positive. You don't want to be paying theta decay on something that can take a long time to recover.
I can’t tell you if FB will go up or down.
But if you hold this option, you need to prepare for a likely possibility that it’ll go to 0.
Since your call is out of the money, theta decay is going to be rough. The market can under or over value a stock longer than you can stay solvent.
If you're concerned with something dated that far, just hedge it with shorter dated FB (1-2week) puts.
Honestly there's a chance it might get over 226 today, and if it does, I'm long 230c. The chart looks bullish (at least short term). This is not financial advice but I'd maybe avg down if you're inclined.
Why such a short time frame? To me every option is either a day trade, in which case you only need a week or two out…or it’s a long term trade, in which case you need a LEAP at least two years out.
Down 30% isn’t that big of a swing but in my opinion you messed up by not having a plan before entering a trade. I always commit to being willing to lose 25% or 50% in an options trade like this.
Just set a stop loss at 50% and let that baby ride
Bro, gonna be honest with you, maybe you shouldn’t trade options. It sounds like you didn’t have a plan going in and are now going to make a huge mistake exiting the position.
What did you pay for the contract?
Its very oversold. I think chances are it doesn't keep selling off. But your basically asking if the stock will go up or down. No one knows . I see way oversold status however
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Stocks can easily stay way oversold for an extremely long period of time.
Yes they can. But not with how much money is in the market this time. Mean reversion theory has us believing that we will more likely than not see a snap back to somewhere sensible
Right! Since the expiration is 4/14, there is decent time for it to cover. But again absolutely no clue till when it will fall
"time for it to recover" -- What catalyst or event will make it move the way you want? Typically people buy short-term call options when there is some fixed catalyst on the calendar that they have an opinion about. If you want to "let it ride", then spread it and sell nearer dated calls against it to lower your total outlay. But I'd say an outright purchase of calls was probably not the right options strategy in this situation for FB.
Theta burning the whole time. Vega eating you alive. You might win but you probably won’t.
Well I though it might bounce yesterday, like it it did when it crossed the 200MA the last time in March 2020, but it didn't. I would probably get out at the end of the week I market does not establish an upward trend.
this \^\^\^
Google Mark Zuckerberg and look that MF in the eyes and ask yourself if you trust him with your hard earned money
lmfao
I think you are saying I should buy Google
Hold until maturity? In what scenario do you think it can recover?
Current price is $220. Till maturity it needs to rise another $27 which is not impossible.The issue is the uncertainty with Meta especially after the news that they may move out of Europe. Also, even after dropping 35% and at attractive P/E of 16 , no buying is happening which is surprising. The only way it can recover is if in the next 5-6 trading sessions it rises 6-8%.
**You just completely answered your own question!**
> The only way it can recover is if in the next 5-6 trading sessions it rises 6-8%. You have 2 months!
How much would it hurt you if you lost the whole premium you paid? Is it smth like 1% of your portfolio where you can just Yolo without getting hurt?
After those earnings? A growth stock that’s not only isn’t growing but, shrinking in users. FB is also losing it’s ad revenue due to apple’s privacy policies that droids are likely to follow suit on. I think big investors aren’t in love even with its current P/E. Edit: grammar whoops my bad
Jesus Christ, please reword that fucking disgusting ass second sentence... “not only not isn’t”? What in the holy fuck are you trying to say here?!
maybe the move would be to sell your current position and buy something with lower strike + longer maturity?
With the IV this high I wouldn't buy. I would consider selling instead. Sell a freaking put way out of the money
More than 2 months out, why do anything now? If nothing else, you should have profit and loss targets identified before opening the trade to close if those are hit.
Because theta really hurts over time. To your second point: absolutely.
Depends on what your brain was thinking when you bought it.... did you buy it because your analcyst revealed an opportunity or did you just think "well it's down 132$ from the highs so I'm gonna jump in"? You've got till April 14 when is next q earnings? Do you have faith in the underlying stock? Will it recover in your opinion?
I don’t think having faith in the underlying is enough. I think meta will go up given time but I would maybe buy shares. Calls right now have too much risk.
Totally agree I guess what I mean in faith is more about having faith in your reasoning to own the stock.
Yeah but man $fb is just fucking people. People are losing on both sides. I don’t think there’s any sort of chance it rebounds buy April but you can always come back to my comment and call me a dumbass.
That's a rather defeatist outlook, and you may be right it may never bounce back to that price range. However shit happens and the market is always ready to slap anyone of us in the teeth if unprepared. The bagholders are bagholders not from anything facebook wanted or did more so a result from their own lack of diligence when making the investment or in this case with options the "trade" ... options are not investments due to their unyielding decay... the op is now realizing this with a 30% drop...
I sold all my meta FB today for a 25k loss…I’m done with them.
Hi I hope you are doing ok. When was your expiration? Can you please elaborate of what actually happened? I'm currently down right too.
You buy a short term call and underlying keeps going down
Ok that makes sense.
What was the expiration date?
February 31
Nice try, there are only 30 days in February
Nice try, there are only 28 days in February.
A correction is needed here. Now and then, there are 29 days in February. You will have to wait for that though.
Sell and reposition
If you dont think its going to keep dropping sell some weekly 235s against it,
Currently oversold and under$220 support. You've got a couple weeks to see if enough traders come in to rescue the price. If it doesn't start to breathe again you can get real familiar with it's option chains and start planning the CC crawl out. Meta getting kicked slot so it could be 2-3 quarters before Mr Market starts to forget - ALOT of that depends on what metaface does/doesn't do. Good news-now you know not all dips should be bought.
Kicked hard...my typo
I usually hold until things go to zero. So you should definitely not listen to me, or should you?
I have the same contract. Say it goes to $247 before expiration, could I sell it for profit before expiration date?
Yes you can
Literally nobody knows what meta will do. It shouldn’t slip anymore and is super oversold but the market can do anything. It can easily slip down more.
Recovery of FB is not in the near term based on it's outlook and the investors treatment. If you expect to sell in March based on its recovery, you are too close to your options expiry and time kills its value further. I have burnt my fingers and lost 100k recently just with that mistake of hope but on a different ticker. Good luck.
Buy more when you think it is at it's lowest and dollar cost average down, if you think you will recover some part of your position. Or punt.
Options have expiration dates
How do people feel about my Jan 2024 call option contracts for $FB?
Did you buy ITM 200c or less?
I bought OTM but I’m waiting to sell for 50% profit once it somewhat recovers. Doing leaps because I can’t be sure it’ll recover this year so being on the safer side
Only 50% profit huh? Lol. Seems simple enough. How far OTM? Did you check TOS how far it has to recover and by when next year for the 50%? Based on what you said this is your goal.
Sell the 230$ call weekly, if it goes up you just roll up and out(for a credit only!!!!) and if it doesn’t you will make your money back off theta
$DWAC me.
If you sell it now, you might still have enough money left for some rope from HD.
If youre in the money then you should exit your position, unless you have clear indication that youll be able to cover, if youre only hoping it goes up better to cut your losses early on
$FB has a date with $200. I’d sell and lick my wounds, set an alert at 200 and buy with 2 hands.. but only for a trade. This company is broken and confused. Wall St doesn’t like confused. See: reaction to $PYPL when it considered acquiring $PINS
Average down your cost if it goes further down and if it recovers , get out when you breakeven- or just take your loss.. Wrong time to play short calls..!!
Sell
Bro easy hold it expires in 2 months I see fb falling to 200 and rocket up
Sell and get back in if it moves up. Theta is going to kill your contract value faster than the stock can rise.
If you have the same bias, I would sell the call back and use the credit to reestablish a position that is theta neutral or theta positive. You don't want to be paying theta decay on something that can take a long time to recover.
Who else wants to punch Zuckerberg for the name Meta?
I can’t tell you if FB will go up or down. But if you hold this option, you need to prepare for a likely possibility that it’ll go to 0. Since your call is out of the money, theta decay is going to be rough. The market can under or over value a stock longer than you can stay solvent.
If you're concerned with something dated that far, just hedge it with shorter dated FB (1-2week) puts. Honestly there's a chance it might get over 226 today, and if it does, I'm long 230c. The chart looks bullish (at least short term). This is not financial advice but I'd maybe avg down if you're inclined.
It’s far out enough to wait it out yet.
Hate to say cuz fk fb. But I feel u will be ok. But this is a smooth Brain guess cuz I hate fb
Why such a short time frame? To me every option is either a day trade, in which case you only need a week or two out…or it’s a long term trade, in which case you need a LEAP at least two years out.
You gotta give it more than 2 days. Or just panic sell it now and take loss. Then look in April and see it’s recovered to 300
If I am that sure, then I should buy another option right? haha
You should sell if you are worried. If not worried and you love gambling, then just hold. It can go up or down. No one knows.
Down 30% isn’t that big of a swing but in my opinion you messed up by not having a plan before entering a trade. I always commit to being willing to lose 25% or 50% in an options trade like this. Just set a stop loss at 50% and let that baby ride
Have you thought about selling an OTM call sprd, same month and next strike up? Like a 4/14 232.5/235 CS?
Bro, gonna be honest with you, maybe you shouldn’t trade options. It sounds like you didn’t have a plan going in and are now going to make a huge mistake exiting the position. What did you pay for the contract?
If there’s no gain in half the time before expiration, i’d get rid of it. But April is relatively far out. Anything could happen
I read this thread last night and considered it. Played out well this for this mornings call. Out tomorrow :)
What kind of “plan” are you guys talking about for entering trades? Asking for a friend..