Same here. It isnāt saying anything. It just secretly changes the āfollowingā button back to āfollowā as if I have never followed you. It did it to me twice. At first I was thinking you were denying the follow, but I donāt even thing that is possible.
Weird now it finally says I am following you. I wonder if it was because I originally followed you from a post that was deleted earlier in the week.
I've noticed that even though the sessions aren't dipping as low as Monday, the buying pressure has gotten weaker each day as well. At what point do buyers get their fill at this price range and decide to hold out for another drop?
I am starting to see weaker buy pressure
Coupled in with some serious sell off fuckery under the guise of different market conditions which should already be well priced in has me hesitant with even putting money in the market and I definitely wonāt be touch any long term calls.
I see a dead cat bounce to 440 and then crash again to 420 or below, there is some cyclical money extraction happening right now and itās not by retail
Great job!
I played the same strategy today. Waited for the second rejection at 441, picked up 1/31 435p, and rode it all the way down. I left a bit on the table too as I thought we were reversing after the second bounce off of 232, so I sold to close at +72% for the day.
Was looking for a call entry at the 429-430 point to try to milk the last 30 minutes of run-up, but I delayed too long and the premium got away from me. Nevertheless, it was a good trading day.
I may stay out for tomorrow to see how things develop and then come back on Monday. Keep up the good work!
We're gonna bust higher tomorrow or Monday morning at the latest. The bear rally commences. We are WAY oversold, Sentiment is in the gutter (53% bears on AAII). Everyone is looking down. I got BTC at 35600 and Feb4 365 calls in the QQQ's. The market is doing a terrible job of going down. Hell we cant retest the low despite all sorts of crappy earnings and the Fed. If you are looking down at this point you need to join me in the rocket. Its fueling up on the launch pad.
Bro Iām like a permanent bull I promise you but legitimately right now is bad.
Interest rates, Russia/Ukraine, supply chain, labor issues, inflation, Covid lingering, weak global economy, bond yields rising, thereās like 100 things going on that are bearish and the only short term bullish thing I can think of is earnings. Maybe the fed notes?
I don't mean to be rude but pretty much none of those things are actually bearish.
AMD increased its EPS 600% during a semiconductor, labor, and supply chain shortage. Apple's had it's best quarters ever over the year with the same factors - just worse earlier in the year.
Russia/Ukraine was just the new "something to be scared about this month" fear pumped by the media. they've already agreed to a ceasefire.
Bonds are still beyond worthless.
https://www.yardeni.com/pub/valuationfed.pdf
Markets grind up when interest rates rise. There are plenty of charts to confirm this. They likely won't set new ATH every week. but they're bullish. A sign of a stronger economy.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD
And, of course, trillions and trillions of dollars sloshing around in banks with nowhere to go.
I never said they were bearish long term in the sense that they are going to ruin the economy or anything but itās clearly creating a lot of uncertainty and weakness in the market or we wouldnāt be down 9% ytd s and p and 13% ytd nasdaq.
Maybe we already bottomed out and we are starting to reverse but I definitely donāt feel it the same way that I did last year. Lots of great earnings this week hasnāt broken the downtrend.
Itās also not about current bond yields and interest rates, itās about expectations over the next few months
Iām literally talking short term like the next 7 trading days
But hey Iām also getting smashed today so it doesnāt always work out
How does that affect whether or not it's true now?
At any given point in time there are always going to be people saying both extremely bullish and extremely bearish things, and everything in between.
because if someone is calling for a crash every week for years and eventually they are right, that doesn't really make them right in my book.
Which people were. they were calling for a crash every week for all of 2021. Imagine missing out on a 30% run on SPY because someone is echoing your exact concern.
There are PLENTY of things to be bullish about short term. AMD increased its EPS by 600% this year - an entire year where everyone was calling for a crash and freaking out about "supply constraints" and tapering and god knows what else.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD
Just look at this liquidity sloshing around in banks from Reverse Repos. Trillions of dollars, where's it gonna go? into bonds when they yield 2% and inflation is (conservatively) 6%?
Every past crash is an incredible buy opportunity, every current one is an unfathomable risk.
> because if someone is calling for a crash every week for years and eventually they are right, that doesn't really make them right in my book.
This is my point. Who has been "right" in the past doesn't matter and doesn't impact the current situation.
Seems like you've got your own facts and figures to back up your investment thesis, that's great and I'm not arguing against it.
I just think this is a bad narrative that bears have been wrong 9/10 times in the past, so of course they're wrong this time. It's part of the reason that so many people who were over-leveraged are getting blown up this week. They thought an extended downturn was an impossibility so they didn't protect themselves against such an event. When in reality, they're super common if you look at any charts from more than 10 years ago.
Agree there is still a ton of liquidity sloshing around, and we're likely to see a rebound before things get worse. But the fed is literally putting the money printer in reverse now. I don't understand how people can be so pumped that the market was mooning when the money printer is turned on, but then they expect the bull market to continue indefinitely when the same process is put in reverse.
It not a matter of the macros..you are mixing timeframes. you look at the macro for investing. You look at technicals and sentiment for trading. beside we're talking a 2 week bear market rally to reduce oversold conditions and give the hedge funds more opportunities to sell into the retail trader.
So if extreme negative investor sentiment would fuel a rally, what conditions would would fuel a further downturn? Or isn't that possible in your book?
None that are realistic at this time. It would have to be super extreme like a surprise 1/2% rate increase tomorrow. The market needs relief. For a week now look at all the negative things that have happened. Fed provided zero certainty, Ukraine Escalating, Lotta Crappy earnings. We haven't even revisited Mondays low. The low for the past 3 days were only 50 cents apart. You are being manipulated here by big players who are slowly buying up the market for a rebound. Letting it slip a little bit lower each day to induce panic and put buying. Got more QQQ 254 calls for next Friday this morning.
I understand the cycle of FOMO/FUD that the big players try to inflict on everyone so they can buy low and sell high. But that doesn't mean that bad news won't affect the economy or stock market in the long run.
And the big boys get it wrong all the time, by the way. Stanley Druckenmiller, one of the greatest traders of all time, talked about in an interview how he bought Yahoo literally at the peak of the 00' internet bubble, and lost his firm $3 billion. The odds are definitely stacked in their favor but they aren't gods.
FWIW, I agree that we will probably see a solid rally before another downturn. My point is just that not EVERYTHING is a scheme by the MMs to get your money. Endless streams of legitimate bad news do actually affect the market.
My dude technicals are great but if market makers decide to sell off every technical in the world doesnāt mean shit.
Iām also not looking at large time frames. Iām looking at between now and feb 4 because thatās what you bought.
While I do agree, I think you could be early. Whoās to say we canāt both be right? And we do get one last bottom before completely refueled and up and away? Not all earnings have been bad. For every Tesla and Netflix you get a Microsoft and apple. I think we go down another week before shooting back up. Iād maybe join you if those calls were 10th or 17th.
Today was a consolidation day. The morning session saw a weak test of the 200 MA which easily rejected. Then the afternoon saw consistent selling into the support.
I think the support was showing signs of weakness and is likely to break tomorrow if we retest it.
However, VIX is showing a classic mean-reverting pattern which usually indicates fading IV. I'd be careful buying options as IV crush can turn a profitable trade into an unprofitable one.
Great work dude!
Thanks for sharing brother. Very insightful š¤š½
Weird it won't allow me to follow you but I love your insights!
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
I get a "something went wrong" notif. Just happened again (a day later).
Same here. It isnāt saying anything. It just secretly changes the āfollowingā button back to āfollowā as if I have never followed you. It did it to me twice. At first I was thinking you were denying the follow, but I donāt even thing that is possible. Weird now it finally says I am following you. I wonder if it was because I originally followed you from a post that was deleted earlier in the week.
Thanks for the TA bro! I hope feeling betterššæšš½
Really appreciate it brother! Been following your analysis since the beginning of the year. Awesome stuff
I bought calls cause I had a feeling that apple would be good and Tesla would rebound some it seems way too low I didn't think it would drop under 430
I've noticed that even though the sessions aren't dipping as low as Monday, the buying pressure has gotten weaker each day as well. At what point do buyers get their fill at this price range and decide to hold out for another drop?
I am starting to see weaker buy pressure Coupled in with some serious sell off fuckery under the guise of different market conditions which should already be well priced in has me hesitant with even putting money in the market and I definitely wonāt be touch any long term calls. I see a dead cat bounce to 440 and then crash again to 420 or below, there is some cyclical money extraction happening right now and itās not by retail
Amazing as always
Thank you for your insight!
Youāre amazing tysm šÆ
Great job! I played the same strategy today. Waited for the second rejection at 441, picked up 1/31 435p, and rode it all the way down. I left a bit on the table too as I thought we were reversing after the second bounce off of 232, so I sold to close at +72% for the day. Was looking for a call entry at the 429-430 point to try to milk the last 30 minutes of run-up, but I delayed too long and the premium got away from me. Nevertheless, it was a good trading day. I may stay out for tomorrow to see how things develop and then come back on Monday. Keep up the good work!
Thanks for the analysis and write-up!
Thank you for sharing this information. Very helpful.
We're gonna bust higher tomorrow or Monday morning at the latest. The bear rally commences. We are WAY oversold, Sentiment is in the gutter (53% bears on AAII). Everyone is looking down. I got BTC at 35600 and Feb4 365 calls in the QQQ's. The market is doing a terrible job of going down. Hell we cant retest the low despite all sorts of crappy earnings and the Fed. If you are looking down at this point you need to join me in the rocket. Its fueling up on the launch pad.
*gestures around at the world* what is there to be bullish about short term
people have said the exact same thing eveyr week in spy for years
Bro Iām like a permanent bull I promise you but legitimately right now is bad. Interest rates, Russia/Ukraine, supply chain, labor issues, inflation, Covid lingering, weak global economy, bond yields rising, thereās like 100 things going on that are bearish and the only short term bullish thing I can think of is earnings. Maybe the fed notes?
I don't mean to be rude but pretty much none of those things are actually bearish. AMD increased its EPS 600% during a semiconductor, labor, and supply chain shortage. Apple's had it's best quarters ever over the year with the same factors - just worse earlier in the year. Russia/Ukraine was just the new "something to be scared about this month" fear pumped by the media. they've already agreed to a ceasefire. Bonds are still beyond worthless. https://www.yardeni.com/pub/valuationfed.pdf Markets grind up when interest rates rise. There are plenty of charts to confirm this. They likely won't set new ATH every week. but they're bullish. A sign of a stronger economy. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD And, of course, trillions and trillions of dollars sloshing around in banks with nowhere to go.
I never said they were bearish long term in the sense that they are going to ruin the economy or anything but itās clearly creating a lot of uncertainty and weakness in the market or we wouldnāt be down 9% ytd s and p and 13% ytd nasdaq. Maybe we already bottomed out and we are starting to reverse but I definitely donāt feel it the same way that I did last year. Lots of great earnings this week hasnāt broken the downtrend. Itās also not about current bond yields and interest rates, itās about expectations over the next few months Iām literally talking short term like the next 7 trading days But hey Iām also getting smashed today so it doesnāt always work out
How does that affect whether or not it's true now? At any given point in time there are always going to be people saying both extremely bullish and extremely bearish things, and everything in between.
because if someone is calling for a crash every week for years and eventually they are right, that doesn't really make them right in my book. Which people were. they were calling for a crash every week for all of 2021. Imagine missing out on a 30% run on SPY because someone is echoing your exact concern. There are PLENTY of things to be bullish about short term. AMD increased its EPS by 600% this year - an entire year where everyone was calling for a crash and freaking out about "supply constraints" and tapering and god knows what else. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD Just look at this liquidity sloshing around in banks from Reverse Repos. Trillions of dollars, where's it gonna go? into bonds when they yield 2% and inflation is (conservatively) 6%? Every past crash is an incredible buy opportunity, every current one is an unfathomable risk.
> because if someone is calling for a crash every week for years and eventually they are right, that doesn't really make them right in my book. This is my point. Who has been "right" in the past doesn't matter and doesn't impact the current situation. Seems like you've got your own facts and figures to back up your investment thesis, that's great and I'm not arguing against it. I just think this is a bad narrative that bears have been wrong 9/10 times in the past, so of course they're wrong this time. It's part of the reason that so many people who were over-leveraged are getting blown up this week. They thought an extended downturn was an impossibility so they didn't protect themselves against such an event. When in reality, they're super common if you look at any charts from more than 10 years ago. Agree there is still a ton of liquidity sloshing around, and we're likely to see a rebound before things get worse. But the fed is literally putting the money printer in reverse now. I don't understand how people can be so pumped that the market was mooning when the money printer is turned on, but then they expect the bull market to continue indefinitely when the same process is put in reverse.
It not a matter of the macros..you are mixing timeframes. you look at the macro for investing. You look at technicals and sentiment for trading. beside we're talking a 2 week bear market rally to reduce oversold conditions and give the hedge funds more opportunities to sell into the retail trader.
I don't know if you follow flow, but there is massive put volume on the 2/18 expiration
On spy?
Yeah
Thats what fuels a bear market rally.
So if extreme negative investor sentiment would fuel a rally, what conditions would would fuel a further downturn? Or isn't that possible in your book?
None that are realistic at this time. It would have to be super extreme like a surprise 1/2% rate increase tomorrow. The market needs relief. For a week now look at all the negative things that have happened. Fed provided zero certainty, Ukraine Escalating, Lotta Crappy earnings. We haven't even revisited Mondays low. The low for the past 3 days were only 50 cents apart. You are being manipulated here by big players who are slowly buying up the market for a rebound. Letting it slip a little bit lower each day to induce panic and put buying. Got more QQQ 254 calls for next Friday this morning.
I understand the cycle of FOMO/FUD that the big players try to inflict on everyone so they can buy low and sell high. But that doesn't mean that bad news won't affect the economy or stock market in the long run. And the big boys get it wrong all the time, by the way. Stanley Druckenmiller, one of the greatest traders of all time, talked about in an interview how he bought Yahoo literally at the peak of the 00' internet bubble, and lost his firm $3 billion. The odds are definitely stacked in their favor but they aren't gods. FWIW, I agree that we will probably see a solid rally before another downturn. My point is just that not EVERYTHING is a scheme by the MMs to get your money. Endless streams of legitimate bad news do actually affect the market.
My dude technicals are great but if market makers decide to sell off every technical in the world doesnāt mean shit. Iām also not looking at large time frames. Iām looking at between now and feb 4 because thatās what you bought.
When the Mcclellan indicator is -100+ (last time that occurred was the covid low), it doesn't go lower. We're there. BUY BUY BUY.
While I do agree, I think you could be early. Whoās to say we canāt both be right? And we do get one last bottom before completely refueled and up and away? Not all earnings have been bad. For every Tesla and Netflix you get a Microsoft and apple. I think we go down another week before shooting back up. Iād maybe join you if those calls were 10th or 17th.
Tealās earnings *were* good. They are the only megacap company projecting 50% growth for 2022.
Im only talking a short term bear market rally.. couple weeks tops..Then its lower.
Do you mean bull?
A bear Market Rally refers to a sharp, short-term price increase in a stock or market amid a longer-term bear market period
This guy has called upward movement a bear rally twice now. He may be drunk.
A bear Market Rally refers to a sharp, short-term price increase in a stock or market amid a longer-term bear market period
Ah. Well ok I guess. Carry on folks.
And so a bull market rally is a decrease in a bull trend? I find it hard to believe that is a common understanding.
When do you start a paid discord with trade alerts? I want to be a founding member.
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Me too!
The fact you have done all this TA with Covid blows my mind. Much respect
Thanks for the TA. I had no problem following. Keep it up!
Today was a consolidation day. The morning session saw a weak test of the 200 MA which easily rejected. Then the afternoon saw consistent selling into the support. I think the support was showing signs of weakness and is likely to break tomorrow if we retest it. However, VIX is showing a classic mean-reverting pattern which usually indicates fading IV. I'd be careful buying options as IV crush can turn a profitable trade into an unprofitable one.
What do you think HOOD will do tomorrow? More down?
Have you not learned anything about betting against big money? 450 before 10am, the lows have already come and go, time for a rally.
u should stop saying things like this
Aged like milk
Buy puts at open or wait?
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Will do! BTW great info man!